Poll Reveals Mayor Brown’s Approval Rating Down

[Tacachale]

Here's the data from the UNF political poll released the other day, showing a substantial (11 points) decline in the mayor's approval rating over the last year, and declines for the Council and Sheriff as well. Could this voter unhappiness result in big changes in 2015?

A new University of North Florida poll that interviewed adult registered voters in Duval County reveals that Mayor Alvin Brown's approval rating has dropped from 70 to 59 percent, compared to a previous poll conducted by the University in February 2013. City Council approval has also dropped from 48 to 45 percent in the span of a year, while the Jacksonville Sheriff's Office approval rating has also dropped from 71 to 66 percent.

The UNF poll also reveals that Brown leads a field of potential Republican mayoral candidates in hypothetical head-to-head races, with a six-percentage point lead over John Rutherford (41 to 35 percent) among registered voters. Brown leads Bill Gulliford 43 to 28 percent, Jim Overton 42 to 31 percent and Lenny Curry 45 to 25 percent.

The survey was conducted through the use of a 27-station telephone-polling laboratory at UNF. A polling sample was selected through the use of Random-Digit-Dialing methodology. A cell phone sample was used to increase representation. Age, gender, race education and party registration were weighted to the most recent U.S. Census data, as well as to statistics from the Supervisor of Elections for Duval County.

The survey was conducted between Monday, Feb. 10, and Monday, Feb. 17, and includes 502 residents (+/- 4.37 percent), including 442 registered voters (+/- 4.66 percent) in Duval County. Approximately 120 UNF political science students participated in the data collection.

...

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Alvin Brown is handling his job as mayor of Jacksonville?

February 2014 (N = 442)
Strongly Approve: 16%
Somewhat Approve: 43%
Somewhat Disapprove: 13%
Strongly Disapprove: 9%
Don't Know/No Answer: 19%

February 2013 (N = 917)
Strongly Approve: 26%
Somewhat Approve: 44%
Somewhat Disapprove: 10%
Strongly Disapprove: 8%
Don't Know/No Answer: 12%

http://www.unf.edu/publicrelations/media_relations/press/2014/UNF_Poll_Reveals_Mayor_Brown_s_Approval_Rating_Down.aspx

[Charles Hunter]

His approval is certainly down for this former supporter.  Can we have a viable alternative?  Anyone?  Bueller?

[vicupstate]

As I have been telling potential candidates, I think the mayor's support is very weak, and at this point he is a very beatable candidate

I agree.  Who are the rumored/potential opponents at this stage?

[edjax]

Just to be clear, his approval rating is down 11 points, not 11 percent.  If using percent it is actually down nearly 16%.

[Tacachale]

^Quite right, thanks for the catch.

[Tacachale]

As I have been telling potential candidates, I think the mayor's support is very weak, and at this point he is a very beatable candidate

I agree.  Who are the rumored/potential opponents at this stage?

The poll included four people whose names have been passed around: Bill Gulliford (City Council rep from the Beaches and current Council President), Sheriff John Rutherford, Jim Overton (Property Appraiser and former Councilman), and Lenny Curry (head of the Republican Party of Florida). Brown still polled well above them, but of course none have announced they'll run yet, let alone actually started campaigning.

FWIW it will most likely be only one candidate. The Republican Party has made it clear it doesn't want a repeat of 2011 when there were 3 reps in one race and they all lost.

[CityLife]

There have been a few potshots here and there towards Brown, but by and large his tenure hasn't yet been called into question by opponents and local media. When that happens, I bet you will see an even further dip in his approval rating.

[Tacachale]

^Very good point.

[coredumped]

There are 2 people that have filed for the next mayor election:
http://www.duvalelections.com/electioncandidates.aspx?eid=77
Alvin Brown and Tiffany Wingo (Independence Party of Florida).

Does anyone know if Audrey Moran is going to run again? I really think she would have won if Mullaney wasn't in the picture.

[Stephen]

Boyer should run for Mayor but just remember for the City Council race

No Love ! No Lumb...No LumbLove !

[ben says]

I want to run

[tufsu1]

Does anyone know if Audrey Moran is going to run again?

my understanding is no

[John P]

Sheriff Rutherford looks like he will run for mayor. Ive never heard his opinion on anything besides law enforcement.

[JayBird]

Though I like him, not sure he would make a good mayor. Think he is just first on most lists because he is a well known republican. Nat Glover found out the hard way that Jax doesn't particularly like the Sheriff in the Mayors seat. With Rutherford, a large portion of the city does not like him or the police policies he has brought to Jax. He is closely tied to Angela Corey who is busy bailing her own ship and if she sinks he is dead in the water. Plus, I would also add that you may lose a powerful sheriff for the next 4 or 8 years because whomever takes that seat will be constantly second guessed and possibly micro managed by the administration.  Add to that the fraction that would claim he is only running to stay on city payroll. He would be up against a lot right at the starting gate. I like Sheriff Rutherford, not so sure I would like Mayor Rutherford.

Also, I just saw how much we pay the Mayor - over $170,000 a year. The Governor of Florida gets a salary of about $130,000. Is there a reason the salary is so high?

[L.P. Hovercraft]

Also, I just saw how much we pay the Mayor - over $170,000 a year. The Governor of Florida gets a salary of about $130,000. Is there a reason the salary is so high?

Rick Scott's personal net worth is approximately $83 million--he should get by ok on his $130,000 a year salary!

EDIT: Scott only accepts 12 cents a year for his annual salary as governor...make of that what you will.