SunRail to Polk County

[thelakelander]

I must be mixing up light rail systems with commuter rail, my bad there. To my non-transit mind they seem interchangeable at times. I just want some zoning/TOD changes to happen locally!

The frustrating part for me, is there is nothing stopping us now from coordinating dense infill around all existing Skyway stations. We can't even get this right.

[thelakelander]

Re: commuter rail, I think that SunRail has obviously demonstrated that it is possible to actually move such a process forward, and JTA doesn't actually have a serious interest in getting it done on any reasonable timeline. Although they've technically done newer studies they haven't functionally gotten anywhere in terms of demanding action on it, presumably because they're spending their capability to do so on the Flyer and U2C projects.

Central Florida is significantly larger than Jax in both residential and tourist population. I-4 is significantly more congested than any highway in Northeast Florida as well. Orlando has also been more progressive with its desires for fixed rail transit. All of these issues have helped drive the idea of Sunrail. Jax and JTA are backwater in comparison.

Amtrak corridor service is unfortunately unlikely because FDOT is ideologically determined to not support intercity passenger rail beyond the study process. Brightline is definitely possible, but because of their plans for Tampa is long down the road compared to any work we could do if we really tried.

FDOT is more likely to support an Amtrak corridor service than paying for something similar to Sunrail in Jax. As such, it's still more likely to happen than JTA implementing commuter rail locally. Brightline is also more likely. Even though Tampa is a higher priority, Brightline looking at Jax a decade from now is still two decades quicker than JTA at this point unfortunately.

What we critically need right now is for leadership that is actually interested in making this happen and doing the work that goes into it.

I agree here.

There is so much work we can be doing that we've just chosen not to, and we're paying for that vacuum with billions of dollars going to highway expansion instead.

I agree here. Start off by just getting the Amtrak station back downtown.

[Jax_Developer]

I must be mixing up light rail systems with commuter rail, my bad there. To my non-transit mind they seem interchangeable at times. I just want some zoning/TOD changes to happen locally!

The frustrating part for me, is there is nothing stopping us now from coordinating dense infill around all existing Skyway stations. We can't even get this right.

LOL so true!! Incredibly frustrating to hear how the skyway is worthless when the zoning wasn't there to keep up. Not trying to say it's amazing but they left that thing to die.

In terms of the TOD funding I mentioned, that funding is outside of any transit designated funds and those actually support for-profit development. (https://www.transportation.gov/buildamerica/TIFIA49). These benefits are all not eligible to be used in Jacksonville.

[thelakelander]

Why would TOD projects at existing Skyway stations not be eligible, if they meet the minimal requirements?

[Jax_Developer]

Because they lack the ridership capacity in its current state. U2C as well. The original skyway capacity would qualify.

Also, these projects are underwritten individually. When I tried to look into this, I got a big fat NO. Aka, they know the Skyway is likely going away and they would not allocate any funds bc of that.

[marcuscnelson]

I must be mixing up light rail systems with commuter rail, my bad there. To my non-transit mind they seem interchangeable at times. I just want some zoning/TOD changes to happen locally!

The frustrating part for me, is there is nothing stopping us now from coordinating dense infill around all existing Skyway stations. We can't even get this right.

We spent one million dollars in federal taxpayer money on a TOD study for the U2C, which includes all of the existing Skyway stations, and yet I can't really tell you what it's actually productively resulted in, physically or even legally in terms of zoning codes. JTA can try to claim Artea but like, come on.

[iMarvin]

Not to be that guy but rail is only profitable in extreme circumstances. The profit is in the social benefit & private development. LRT or Rail to the beaches, will never be profitable.

I'm this guy and even I will stay say it doesn't make sense financially. The profit in social benefit and private development is better achieved with a small starter line that links urban core neighborhoods together. Starter as in 5 miles or less in total length in a higher density and compact area, as opposed to a 20 mile starter in straight autocentric suburbia.

Ironically, I think the best place for a starter line is currently featured on another thread right now. The S-Line up through Gateway passes through areas that are ripe for investment and development (including the Phoenix Arts District, also being talked about in another thread!) and is right under 5 miles. This assumes we make the appropriate zoning changes to allow for more density along the route. I imagine this would be easier and cheaper to build than a starter line in Riverside or San Marco.

Surface rail is cool but if you wanna get bold, go with automated light metro (not gonna stop mentioning this) and do a COMPLETE REBRAND of the Skyway.

If anyone is wondering what automate light metro is, Honolulu is opening their system tomorrow. It's had delays but I think the investment will be worth it, if they're able to get it downtown.

[thelakelander]

Because they lack the ridership capacity in its current state. U2C as well. The original skyway capacity would qualify.

Also, these projects are underwritten individually. When I tried to look into this, I got a big fat NO. Aka, they know the Skyway is likely going away and they would not allocate any funds bc of that.

So self sabotage on our end with the Skyway/U2C. Very unfortunate. I wonder how many people in town know how we screw ourselves over?

[thelakelander]

Surface rail is cool but if you wanna get bold, go with automated light metro (not gonna stop mentioning this) and do a COMPLETE REBRAND of the Skyway.

Simply rebranding and upgrading the Skyway is the easiest and lowest hanging fruit we have to improving fixed transit in this town. Unfortunately, JTA is the biggest obstacle to it and literally everything else transit related. I have very little confidence in JTA pulling any type of commuter rail, LRT, streetcar, etc. off in my lifetime. As such, even Amtrak on its worst day will be more competent and more likely to pull something off Jax related. No matter what people think of them, they do exist, have done it before, and desire to expand in Florida. The stumbling block is Tallahassee. That place changes every 4 to 8 years, so the direction FDOT sways today could be very different in a few years.

[marcuscnelson]

Re: commuter rail, I think that SunRail has obviously demonstrated that it is possible to actually move such a process forward, and JTA doesn't actually have a serious interest in getting it done on any reasonable timeline. Although they've technically done newer studies they haven't functionally gotten anywhere in terms of demanding action on it, presumably because they're spending their capability to do so on the Flyer and U2C projects.

Central Florida is significantly larger than Jax in both residential and tourist population. I-4 is significantly more congested than any highway in Northeast Florida as well. Orlando has also been more progressive with its desires for fixed rail transit. All of these issues have helped drive the idea of Sunrail. Jax and JTA are backwater in comparison.

Amtrak corridor service is unfortunately unlikely because FDOT is ideologically determined to not support intercity passenger rail beyond the study process. Brightline is definitely possible, but because of their plans for Tampa is long down the road compared to any work we could do if we really tried.

FDOT is more likely to support an Amtrak corridor service than paying for something similar to Sunrail in Jax. As such, it's still more likely to happen than JTA implementing commuter rail locally. Brightline is also more likely. Even though Tampa is a higher priority, Brightline looking at Jax a decade from now is still two decades quicker than JTA at this point unfortunately.

I agree that Central Florida is larger, yes. Although I'd add that in terms of spending we're not that far off they've done, between all the I-95 reconstruction and expansion and the 295 toll lanes and coming expansion and the ongoing I-10 expansion and the First Coast Expressway. I looked at the numbers last year and I-95 alone's ongoing or planned construction amounts well over $1.5 billion. But yes, they've expressed and acted on that desire much more than we have.

FDOT is strange because to them, they're more concerned about the idea of ongoing operational costs than about capital grants. They're pretty much fine with doing planning work and then handing over a New Starts grants. What people I've spoken to at FDOT have repeatedly said is they don't want to do is be committed to supporting a passenger rail program that puts them at "financial risk". That's why they've been working so hard to give SunRail to the local governments, and why they like Brightline because all of the risk of operational costs is in the company's hands. It's a silly way of thinking, but it's what they're doing.

[Charles Hunter]

I agree that Central Florida is larger, yes. Although I'd add that in terms of spending we're not that far off they've done, between all the I-95 reconstruction and expansion and the 295 toll lanes and coming expansion and the ongoing I-10 expansion and the First Coast Expressway. I looked at the numbers last year and I-95 alone's ongoing or planned construction amounts well over $1.5 billion. But yes, they've expressed and acted on that desire much more than we have.

FDOT is strange because to them, they're more concerned about the idea of ongoing operational costs than about capital grants. They're pretty much fine with doing planning work and then handing over a New Starts grants. What people I've spoken to at FDOT have repeatedly said is they don't want to do is be committed to supporting a passenger rail program that puts them at "financial risk". That's why they've been working so hard to give SunRail to the local governments, and why they like Brightline because all of the risk of operational costs is in the company's hands. It's a silly way of thinking, but it's what they're doing.

FDOT is strange because to them, they're more concerned about the idea of ongoing operational costs than about capital grants. For transit projects. Ongoing operations and maintenance costs of new or expanded highways do not even get a flicker of consideration at FDOT.

[marcuscnelson]

Not to be that guy but rail is only profitable in extreme circumstances. The profit is in the social benefit & private development. LRT or Rail to the beaches, will never be profitable.

I'm this guy and even I will stay say it doesn't make sense financially. The profit in social benefit and private development is better achieved with a small starter line that links urban core neighborhoods together. Starter as in 5 miles or less in total length in a higher density and compact area, as opposed to a 20 mile starter in straight autocentric suburbia.

Ironically, I think the best place for a starter line is currently featured on another thread right now. The S-Line up through Gateway passes through areas that are ripe for investment and development (including the Phoenix Arts District, also being talked about in another thread!) and is right under 5 miles. This assumes we make the appropriate zoning changes to allow for more density along the route. I imagine this would be easier and cheaper to build than a starter line in Riverside or San Marco.

Surface rail is cool but if you wanna get bold, go with automated light metro (not gonna stop mentioning this) and do a COMPLETE REBRAND of the Skyway.

If anyone is wondering what automate light metro is, Honolulu is opening their system tomorrow. It's had delays but I think the investment will be worth it, if they're able to get it downtown.

I think Ock has talked about the idea of an S-Line streetcar/LRT before. Although the thing that stands out to me is that JTA is currently looking into redoing their maintenance center operations, which would mean the opportunity to redevelop the Myrtle Avenue campus and reconnect the rail ROW from the downtown terminal through the S-Line to points north. It would be a lot more convenient to do that with a modern DMU like this that can meet FRA Alternative Compliance instead of a light rail vehicle (had an artist friend throw this together last year):



I have another thread from someone arguing that Jacksonville warrants a dedicated metro system. That was for heavier rail like Miami rather than Honolulu but I think the point stands regardless of technology choice.

We've discussed this here before but it seems a lot of the problem goes back to that we really screwed up by deciding to go for the peoplemover program, which has left us with a white elephant that we apparently can't tear down, can't upgrade normally, and can't leave as-is. And then we have a transit agency that has decided to abandon its primary responsibility to chase the glory of discovering self driving, and refuses to take no for an answer.

I'm curious how much attention the Deegan Administration might pay to transportation, because we're spending a lot of money on it, there's a lot more money out there, but we're not getting a ton of results for our current (and planned future) approach.

[thelakelander]

Re: commuter rail, I think that SunRail has obviously demonstrated that it is possible to actually move such a process forward, and JTA doesn't actually have a serious interest in getting it done on any reasonable timeline. Although they've technically done newer studies they haven't functionally gotten anywhere in terms of demanding action on it, presumably because they're spending their capability to do so on the Flyer and U2C projects.

Central Florida is significantly larger than Jax in both residential and tourist population. I-4 is significantly more congested than any highway in Northeast Florida as well. Orlando has also been more progressive with its desires for fixed rail transit. All of these issues have helped drive the idea of Sunrail. Jax and JTA are backwater in comparison.

Amtrak corridor service is unfortunately unlikely because FDOT is ideologically determined to not support intercity passenger rail beyond the study process. Brightline is definitely possible, but because of their plans for Tampa is long down the road compared to any work we could do if we really tried.

FDOT is more likely to support an Amtrak corridor service than paying for something similar to Sunrail in Jax. As such, it's still more likely to happen than JTA implementing commuter rail locally. Brightline is also more likely. Even though Tampa is a higher priority, Brightline looking at Jax a decade from now is still two decades quicker than JTA at this point unfortunately.

I agree that Central Florida is larger, yes. Although I'd add that in terms of spending we're not that far off they've done, between all the I-95 reconstruction and expansion and the 295 toll lanes and coming expansion and the ongoing I-10 expansion and the First Coast Expressway. I looked at the numbers last year and I-95 alone's ongoing or planned construction amounts well over $1.5 billion. But yes, they've expressed and acted on that desire much more than we have.

We're very far off, even in terms of spending once you start tallying up the numbers from the Turnpike, CFX, etc. Even back in the 1990s, there was more than 7 million people living within a 100 mile radius of Lakeland. I'm sure they've added a couple of million more along the I-4 corridor since then. Polk County alone has 800,000 residents now. I'm not saying its a good or bad thing, its just a reality we have to accept and work with.

FDOT is strange because to them, they're more concerned about the idea of ongoing operational costs than about capital grants. They're pretty much fine with doing planning work and then handing over a New Starts grants. What people I've spoken to at FDOT have repeatedly said is they don't want to do is be committed to supporting a passenger rail program that puts them at "financial risk". That's why they've been working so hard to give SunRail to the local governments, and why they like Brightline because all of the risk of operational costs is in the company's hands. It's a silly way of thinking, but it's what they're doing.

I was embedded as an in-house consultant at the FDOT District that runs Sunrail for several years. The district is way more progressive towards complete streets, multimodal projects, etc. than Jax's district. With that said, if there was a do-over, I'm not sure FDOT would do SunRail again. It has failed to meet is projections and is unreliable for a lion's share of that region.

I rented an apartment down there for the time I was there. Did everything possible to rent a spot at a Sunrail station (TOD has been a success for SunRail, IMO). It never made sense. A 30-45 minute commute, depending on station locations in Seminole County, would have immediately jumped to 2-hour one-way daily commute (assuming you don't miss the train at peak time). It doesn't run on the weekends, so you couldn't even enjoy the benefit of hopping on the train to head to Downtown Orlando, Winter Park or Kissimmee on a Saturday or Sunday. I ended up renting one year in a fake town center type development (Colonial Town Park in Heathrow), a loft in downtown Deland another year and hoteled it for a while.

I'm glad Orlando struck while the iron was hot and got SunRail. However, for it to be more functional, a lot more money will need to be thrown its way. The locals don't necessarily want to do it and FDOT doesn't want to either. I think that's the biggest challenge with FDOT. In a weird sort of way, we don't have this issue with the Skyway or anything we'd like to do locally, which is a benefit of consolidation. Our biggest challenge isn't financial, its aligning local leadership priorities with the greater Jacksonville community's.

[Jax_Developer]

Because they lack the ridership capacity in its current state. U2C as well. The original skyway capacity would qualify.

Also, these projects are underwritten individually. When I tried to look into this, I got a big fat NO. Aka, they know the Skyway is likely going away and they would not allocate any funds bc of that.

So self sabotage on our end with the Skyway/U2C. Very unfortunate. I wonder how many people in town know how we screw ourselves over?

Yes! JTA was not even aware of this when I brought this up to them lol.. I will admit it is a newer program, but another reason among the many they are shooting themselves in the foot. Cumber had interest in this program and was the person who opened my eyes to it. She was trying to put something together I think over her term, but hit hurdles along the way.

[thelakelander]

This only solidifies my belief that its fool's gold to expect JTA to actually bring something like LRT, streetcar or commuter rail to implementation. 16 years since that 2008 commuter rail study and we're no closer to anything than we were then. All the babbling about TOD, millions spent on studies for things that are common sense. Yet still no real implementation. Not even upzoning or coordinating public investment and public/private partnerships around existing TOD stations. Basic stuff, not something transformational like implementing a LRT line to the beaches. In the meantime, several other places have went from concept to operation in a fraction of the time.