SunRail to Polk County

[marcuscnelson]

With construction underway on the final Phase 2 expansion to DeLand, FDOT is now hard at work on planning the next phase of SunRail: Polk County.

They've now held a virtual workshop: https://sunrailext.meetsyou.online/#/

They've also already completed an alternatives analysis that proposes initially expanding 16 miles to Haines City before later expanding into Lakeland. There don't seem to be details yet on how exactly such an expansion would work with CSX, especially given the known concerns the closer to Tampa one gets. Additionally, there are some potential questions as far as how Polk County would join SunRail, but presumably those are questions they have time to answer, especially since the expected start of operations at this time is 2035.

[iMarvin]

A Lakeland extension isn't a terrible idea but they should really work on increasing frequency, expanding operating hours (literally no weekend service), and redeveloping their park-and-ride lots. That would do way more to increase ridership than a Lakeland extension would assuming they continue to run just 20 trains daily M-F.

[jaxlongtimer]

Curious, at what point does commuter rail become intercity rail?  I guess large city commuter trains travel some distance out.  Who goes out the farthest?

If Jax ever got on board (pun intended!), what range would one think we might go one day?  Beyond Baldwin/Macclenny/Sanderson, Yulee/Fernandina, St. Augustine/Southern St. Johns County, Middleburg/Green Cove Springs/Palatka?

[Jax_Developer]

Jax is unique with the county/city being the same. The two train types you mentioned are often on different types of rail or have different design requirements and only in some areas do they share track like you are mentioning. Regardless, I think the two most viable routes right now are DT Jax - Jax Beach & DT Jax - St. Augustine by volume today. Anything else likely can't sustain the ridership to make it happen. Maybe the Yulee route if they could utilize existing rail.

[iMarvin]

There was a study completed 14 years ago that said commuter rail was feasible from Downtown to St Augustine, Fernandina Beach, and Green Cove Springs. Jax Beach wasn't included in the study (no existing rail corridor) but I don't think you need a study to know that such a line is feasible. An automated light metro down the median of Beach Blvd would change that entire corridor.

These are the projects JTA should be focusing on, but I guess that would make too much sense.

[Jax_Developer]

True, I could see a Green Cove Spring corridor working as well.

[marcuscnelson]

A Lakeland extension isn't a terrible idea but they should really work on increasing frequency, expanding operating hours (literally no weekend service), and redeveloping their park-and-ride lots. That would do way more to increase ridership than a Lakeland extension would assuming they continue to run just 20 trains daily M-F.

To be fair, it's different levels of financial commitment that go into simply doing planning work (mostly FDOT or the TPO right now) vs having to fund actually running trains on additional days, or building the infrastructure or buying the rolling stock to run more frequently (requires the counties to agree to fund by that much, which Orange County failed to do last year). They also got screwed by having to go with locomotives instead of DMUs a decade ago and now they're committed to doing so. I totally agree that they should do it, but there are definitely challenges involved.

Curious, at what point does commuter rail become intercity rail?  I guess large city commuter trains travel some distance out.  Who goes out the farthest?

If Jax ever got on board (pun intended!), what range would one think we might go one day?  Beyond Baldwin/Macclenny/Sanderson, Yulee/Fernandina, St. Augustine/Southern St. Johns County, Middleburg/Green Cove Springs/Palatka?

In theory, at a certain scale you end up essentially running different levels of service, especially with more complex systems that include express trains like in the northeast. The furthest is probably the Long Island Rail Road, which runs a service that goes from New York City all the way out to Montauk at the tip of Long Island.

In Jacksonville's case, while I would love for a truly regional system that goes as far as Lake City or even Tallahassee, Gainesville, South Georgia (perhaps even Savannah), Palatka or DeLand to connect with SunRail, Palm Coast or Daytona Beach; the realistic extent is probably about what you said. But you've got to crawl before you can walk or run, and to walk here means actually moving a rail plan forward instead of getting JTA study after JTA study.

Jax is unique with the county/city being the same. The two train types you mentioned are often on different types of rail or have different design requirements and only in some areas do they share track like you are mentioning. Regardless, I think the two most viable routes right now are DT Jax - Jax Beach & DT Jax - St. Augustine by volume today. Anything else likely can't sustain the ridership to make it happen. Maybe the Yulee route if they could utilize existing rail.

Actually, commuter rail (like SunRail or Tri-Rail) and intercity rail (like Amtrak or Brightline) are perhaps the most similar two of any kind of passenger rail. The main difference is level of comfort rather than real engineering or design distinctions. All the places jaxlongtimer mentioned are easily accessible by improving existing freight tracks to passenger service quality and purchasing passenger trains to run on them, just like SunRail did. The only real hitch is having to redo the S-Line alignment so that trains can reach the old train station downtown instead of building a separate terminal on the east side.

There was a study completed 14 years ago that said commuter rail was feasible from Downtown to St Augustine, Fernandina Beach, and Green Cove Springs. Jax Beach wasn't included in the study (no existing rail corridor) but I don't think you need a study to know that such a line is feasible. An automated light metro down the median of Beach Blvd would change that entire corridor.

These are the projects JTA should be focusing on, but I guess that would make too much sense.

Ironically Beach Blvd used to have a rail line, it's just been gone for close to 90 years now. We do already have the First Coast Flyer "bus rapid transit" that goes between downtown and the beach, but the obvious problem is that it's such a distance that BRT is obviously unsuited for without expensive investment in speed increases that you might as well make for rail. I absolutely agree, a combination of rezoning (so that Beach Blvd doesn't look like a highway) and fast, grade-separated (or at least dedicated-laned) rail transit would be a huge deal, and it's a shame we seem unwilling to think like that compared to throwing hundreds of millions at autonomous vehicles.

A very obvious problem in Jacksonville is that we all know this city is huge but for whatever reason we keep choosing the slowest possible options for transportation needs unless it's for cars. It's all 30mph (or less!) automated transit lines or mixed traffic buses, meanwhile we turn roads into 80mph highways and 60mph arterials.

[Jax_Developer]

I hear ya Marcus but I disagree. Speed ratings impact the rail layout, setbacks, types & density of road crossings.. etc. Electrification vs not (I think only the NEC is electrified - I know more are to come) is another big one too. Given the green energy wave we have going on, most commuter rail is electric (or going to be) vs. diesel for intercity. I think in JAX the lines are blurry since we are so spread out.. the idea of electrifying something here is not likely due to cost - and again sharing track with all diesel cargo rail.. not what the "big guys" would want to allow.

Hence why I am under the personal opinion that a commuter rail to the beaches is the Step 1. I'm sure some would disagree but cleaning up beach blvd and putting in some type of rail would do a lot for the city itself IMO.

[thelakelander]

Commuter rail on a corridor where there's no existing rail line to use, isn't typically a financially viable commuter rail option.

Anything to the beaches would likely make more sense as light rail. However, even then, Jax is so sprawled and low density, +20 miles of LRT through suburbia would be highly questionable transit infrastructure expense.

Back to commuter rail, the two most logical options in Jax are the same as they were back in 2008. DT to Clay County on the CSX A line and DT to St. Augustine on the FEC. I don't trust JTA with the ability to pull either off. We're going on 16 years since that old commuter rail study they did and we're no closer to getting anything off the ground now than we were then.

I still feel, our best shot at anything fixed rail related is with an intercity corridor service approach through Amtrak or Brightline.

For SunRail and Polk County, that seems to make more sense to me too. Lakeland is more connected to Tampa than Orlando. Amtrak already runs on the corridor. Partnering with Amtrak to run a corridor service between Florida's major cities, with stops in cities like Lakeland, along the way, makes more sense than throwing money into extending SunRail to Polk County a decade from now.

[Jax_Developer]

Commuter rail on a corridor where there's no existing rail line to use, isn't typically a financially viable commuter rail option.

Anything to the beaches would likely make more sense as light rail. However, even then, Jax is so sprawled and low density, +20 miles of LRT through suburbia would be highly questionable transit infrastructure expense.

Back to commuter rail, the two most logical options in Jax are the same as they were back in 2008. DT to Clay County on the CSX A line and DT to St. Augustine on the FEC. I don't trust JTA with the ability to pull either off. We're going on 16 years since that old commuter rail study they did and we're no closer to getting anything off the ground now than we were then.

I still feel, our best shot at anything fixed rail related is with an intercity corridor service approach through Amtrak or Brightline.

For SunRail and Polk County, that seems to make more sense to me too. Lakeland is more connected to Tampa than Orlando. Amtrak already runs on the corridor. Partnering with Amtrak to run a corridor service between Florida's major cities, with stops in cities like Lakeland, along the way, makes more sense than throwing money into extending SunRail to Polk County a decade from now.

Not to be that guy but rail is only profitable in extreme circumstances. The profit is in the social benefit & private development. LRT or Rail to the beaches, will never be profitable. However, out of all the options we have.. that route would provide the highest social & private development return.. in terms of Jacksonville proper. With a rail or LRT project, you could actually qualify for federal funds. Do some TOD studies & they will split the cost of the actual project down the road. Literally not possible today in Jacksonville.

The other routes benefit the surrounding communities more than Jacksonville. A matter of perspective I guess.

[marcuscnelson]

I hear ya Marcus but I disagree. Speed ratings impact the rail layout, setbacks, types & density of road crossings.. etc. Electrification vs not (I think only the NEC is electrified - I know more are to come) is another big one too. Given the green energy wave we have going on, most commuter rail is electric (or going to be) vs. diesel for intercity. I think in JAX the lines are blurry since we are so spread out.. the idea of electrifying something here is not likely due to cost - and again sharing track with all diesel cargo rail.. not what the "big guys" would want to allow.

Hence why I am under the personal opinion that a commuter rail to the beaches is the Step 1. I'm sure some would disagree but cleaning up beach blvd and putting in some type of rail would do a lot for the city itself IMO.

Speed ratings can definitely have an impact but that usually doesn't start until above 79mph when it comes to passenger rail. Both Beach Blvd and the southward freight rail lines are incredibly straight so I don't anticipate that being a problem. In 2006 the state evaluated those lines and said they could support 110mph trains with relatively minor upgrades, similar to what Brightline has done between West Palm Beach and Cocoa. 79 is pretty fast for light rail (vs something like an elevated metro rail system) but say, 50mph with signal priority (which we already have on Beach Blvd) is absolutely doable.

Electrification is usually great, but hard to do. American freight rail companies, unlike their European and Asian counterparts, are stringently opposed to electrification despite the benefits. Electrified commuter rail is pretty rare compared to diesel systems, with the only new cases recently being San Francisco and Denver. Light rail is almost always electrified, mainly because it's almost always on dedicated corridors. The one exception is the River Line in New Jersey. The central issue of mode here is that commuter rail is much heavier than light rail, and you don't really gain anything from undergoing the expense to build brand new commuter rail line on Beach vs a light rail, even if it's like Seattle where you have mixed at-grade and elevated portions.

I do agree that rail to the beaches is a good idea, provided we are going to make the necessary zoning changes to actually support that kind of expense (the fact we haven't so far after spending over $30 million on the First Coast Flyer isn't a good sign). I've debated before if we should perhaps consider putting a rail line on Atlantic instead of Beach since we already have the federally-funded bus line on Beach. But either way, that line doesn't actually need to be commuter rail with mainline-sized rail cars. The only reason to do that is because of trains that may end up on freight lines, like the FEC or CSX lines to St. Augustine or Green Cove Springs.

Commuter rail on a corridor where there's no existing rail line to use, isn't typically a financially viable commuter rail option.

Anything to the beaches would likely make more sense as light rail. However, even then, Jax is so sprawled and low density, +20 miles of LRT through suburbia would be highly questionable transit infrastructure expense.

Back to commuter rail, the two most logical options in Jax are the same as they were back in 2008. DT to Clay County on the CSX A line and DT to St. Augustine on the FEC. I don't trust JTA with the ability to pull either off. We're going on 16 years since that old commuter rail study they did and we're no closer to getting anything off the ground now than we were then.

I still feel, our best shot at anything fixed rail related is with an intercity corridor service approach through Amtrak or Brightline.

For SunRail and Polk County, that seems to make more sense to me too. Lakeland is more connected to Tampa than Orlando. Amtrak already runs on the corridor. Partnering with Amtrak to run a corridor service between Florida's major cities, with stops in cities like Lakeland, along the way, makes more sense than throwing money into extending SunRail to Polk County a decade from now.

Cities have definitely spent as much money on worse quality light rail corridors, at least we have the infill opportunity. I think the challenge there is that any light rail system would almost certainly be constrained to the east side of town until either the Matthews or perhaps Hart bridges were rebuilt with rails. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it's critical to consider in justifying such a system.

Re: commuter rail, I think that SunRail has obviously demonstrated that it is possible to actually move such a process forward, and JTA doesn't actually have a serious interest in getting it done on any reasonable timeline. Although they've technically done newer studies they haven't functionally gotten anywhere in terms of demanding action on it, presumably because they're spending their capability to do so on the Flyer and U2C projects.

Amtrak corridor service is unfortunately unlikely because FDOT is ideologically determined to not support intercity passenger rail beyond the study process. Brightline is definitely possible, but because of their plans for Tampa is long down the road compared to any work we could do if we really tried.

What we critically need right now is for leadership that is actually interested in making this happen and doing the work that goes into it. Getting the actual environmental study of the rail corridors ready, formally selecting and purchasing station sites, signing the track access agreements. These are things SunRail's backers were doing in 2007 in order to have a rail system running seven years later, and despite originally being interested in 2008 we've done none of that. We don't actually have to wait for one massive Full Funding Grant Agreement from the FTA either, we can work with the railways to progressively improve their tracks sooner rather than later, we can get RAISE grants for station development, things of that nature. But we have to be willing to be creative and focused in doing it. If we don't at least get this ball rolling now, while we have federal dollars out there, we're going to be in the wilderness for a while. There is so much work we can be doing that we've just chosen not to, and we're paying for that vacuum with billions of dollars going to highway expansion instead.

[Jax_Developer]

I must be mixing up light rail systems with commuter rail, my bad there. To my non-transit mind they seem interchangeable at times. I just want some zoning/TOD changes to happen locally!

[marcuscnelson]

I agree! We need those changes badly. We've seen other places build the infrastructure but it's also about the environment to support getting those things built so people can get around. This new administration has a chance to make that happen but they have to actually do it.

[thelakelander]

Not to be that guy but rail is only profitable in extreme circumstances. The profit is in the social benefit & private development. LRT or Rail to the beaches, will never be profitable.

I'm this guy and even I will stay say it doesn't make sense financially. The profit in social benefit and private development is better achieved with a small starter line that links urban core neighborhoods together. Starter as in 5 miles or less in total length in a higher density and compact area, as opposed to a 20 mile starter in straight autocentric suburbia.

However, out of all the options we have.. that route would provide the highest social & private development return.. in terms of Jacksonville proper.

A small urban core starter makes sense IF talking LRT. There's also an argument to go streetcar. Both are better local alternatives than the U2C, IMO. Commuter rail and intercity rail are different operations that serve different purposes.

With a rail or LRT project, you could actually qualify for federal funds. Do some TOD studies & they will split the cost of the actual project down the road. Literally not possible today in Jacksonville.

All are eligible for federal fund, if made a priority. Unfortunately, we've decided to put our credibility on the line with the U2C.

The other routes benefit the surrounding communities more than Jacksonville. A matter of perspective I guess.

Commuter rail and intercity are regional operations, so yes, they'd benefit more than just Jax proper.

[thelakelander]

Cities have definitely spent as much money on worse quality light rail corridors, at least we have the infill opportunity. I think the challenge there is that any light rail system would almost certainly be constrained to the east side of town until either the Matthews or perhaps Hart bridges were rebuilt with rails. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it's critical to consider in justifying such a system.

I'm not aware of an American city that started off with their first LRT phase being 20 miles of straight suburbia. Especially since the 1980s. That's a plus billion dollar investment right off the bat. Places like San Diego, Salt Lake City, St. Louis, Charlotte, Norfolk, Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, etc. all started off with smaller segments in their densest environments (or tying large pedestrian oriented destinations together at end points) before expanding significantly through suburbia. If Jax were to follow their path, it would start off with something linking DT to a few neighborhoods like Riverside and San Marco (coordinated with intensifying adjacent infill development density) before expanding as far out as a destination like Jax Beach. Our comparable would be replacing the U2C with a LRT or streetcar system connecting the same neighborhoods, then expanding out over time.

This would be mutually exclusive of commuter rail or intercity rail opportunities.