Casino coming to Jax?

[CityLife]

I don't see anything in the proposed constitutional amendments that would require any new casinos to be located specifically in Duval.

The amendments do, however, stipulate that the casinos must be more than 130-miles (straight line) from tribal lands.

Someone better at geography and more knowledgable about tribal borders could probably measure it with Google Earth, but feels like it might be close in some of these more southern counties.

As the crow flies it's about 175 miles from the Ft. Pierce reservation and about 135 miles from the Tampa reservation (Hard Rock) to the southern St. Johns County border at I-95.

I do agree with Marcus and Lake that there would be some opposition from residents in St. Johns and Nassau though.

[thelakelander]

The Tribe also owns land outside of the six reservations. They are currently developing a residential project on their property  north of Lakeland. That's likely less than 130 miles from St. Johns County: https://tcd.semtribe.com/projects/lists/view-projects/2f0b9a11-02c0-4fae-aa02-546b11fd1837

[BridgeTroll]

Can anyone explain the 130 mile stipulation?  Seems an odd and arbitrary number...

[CityLife]

The Tribe also owns land outside of the six reservations. They are currently developing a residential project on their property  north of Lakeland. That's likely less than 130 miles from St. Johns County: https://tcd.semtribe.com/projects/lists/view-projects/2f0b9a11-02c0-4fae-aa02-546b11fd1837

I could be wrong, but believe "tribal lands" just means the reservations and don't believe the Lakeland property is considered a reservation. The Seminoles bought out Hard Rock, so they also own Hard Rock Cafe, Hard Rock Hotel, and Hard Rock Live in Orlando.

[CityLife]

The Tribe also owns land outside of the six reservations. They are currently developing a residential project on their property  north of Lakeland. That's likely less than 130 miles from St. Johns County: https://tcd.semtribe.com/projects/lists/view-projects/2f0b9a11-02c0-4fae-aa02-546b11fd1837

I could be wrong, but believe "tribal lands" just means the reservations and don't believe the Lakeland property is considered a reservation. The Seminoles bought out Hard Rock, so they also own Hard Rock Cafe, Hard Rock Hotel, and Hard Rock Live in Orlando.

Correction, I read that the Seminoles are trying to designate it a "reservation" so perhaps it would be considered Tribal Lands.

Their Lakeland land is roughly 110 miles from the SJC border at 95. The 130 mile mark is right at World Golf Village. So northern SJC is still in play if it is considered tribal lands.

[bl8jaxnative]

I'm not sure precisely what limitations exist.  But yes in general any land that a tribe buys they could go to the Feds + get it declared Rez, so to speak.  They can also buy land just for other reasons. 

IIRC even if they get land designated as Rez, they're still going to need a compact with the state for whatever gambling they're looking to do.


a few pieces in that arena.

https://m.lasvegassun.com/news/2004/jul/19/tribe-wants-to-open-casinos-in-ohio/

https://www.knoxnews.com/story/money/business/2019/06/19/cherokee-indians-nc-sevierville-land-casino-sports-betting/1504084001/

https://www.twincities.com/2016/02/19/treasure-island-tribe-buys-land-but-not-for-a-casino/

[jaxlongtimer]

Assuming anything passes next year, I definitely don't see a casino opening in St. Johns or Nassau.

Ennis, what's your thinking for this conclusion?

The Best Bet in St. Johns was sold and is being redeveloped into a shopping center and apartments, so that's out.

And honestly, I'd seriously question if the support is there to open a casino in St. Johns at this point. A lot has changed in the last decade, and odds are the type of people living in the area now will fight it tooth and nail. I was just reading a thread on Nextdoor of people in Nocatee pissed that a toy store and another gym were going to their town center. A casino? Good lord.

I was referring to Best Bet's license/permit for a gambling operation they had in St. Johns when the kennel club was still open, not the operation of the physical facility that has long been closed.  I was wondering if there were grandfather rights to reestablish a gambling operation in St. Johns that they could reactivate.

I also am not convinced that the exploding population in St. Johns, much of which is from other parts of the U.S., would be adverse to another tourist attraction in the county including a casino.  St. John's is mostly a residential suburb of Jax and they would likely be happy to welcome most anything that would expand their commercial tax and employment base based on my observations of pronouncements by their elected officials.  And, as big as Nocatee is, it is only a slice of the total county, both people and land wise.

[marcuscnelson]

Well... I guesss there are grandfather rights on the existing license.

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/bestbet-plans-st-johns-county-poker-wagering-facility

Bestbet plans St. Johns County poker, wagering facility

In a return to St. Johns County, bestbet plans to build a poker room and simulcast wagering facility near St. Augustine.

St. Johns County issued a building permit July 15 for bestbet to construct a 40,673-square-foot facility at 800 Marketplace Drive in St. Johns County.

[jaxlongtimer]

Well... I guesss there are grandfather rights on the existing license.

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/bestbet-plans-st-johns-county-poker-wagering-facility

Bestbet plans St. Johns County poker, wagering facility

In a return to St. Johns County, bestbet plans to build a poker room and simulcast wagering facility near St. Augustine.

St. Johns County issued a building permit July 15 for bestbet to construct a 40,673-square-foot facility at 800 Marketplace Drive in St. Johns County.

LOL.  I promise I didn't have any inside info on the article.  I just couldn't imagine Best Bet giving up a valuable and, likely, an irreplaceable license for a gambling operation in St. Johns County for good.

[thelakelander]

The Tribe also owns land outside of the six reservations. They are currently developing a residential project on their property  north of Lakeland. That's likely less than 130 miles from St. Johns County: https://tcd.semtribe.com/projects/lists/view-projects/2f0b9a11-02c0-4fae-aa02-546b11fd1837

I could be wrong, but believe "tribal lands" just means the reservations and don't believe the Lakeland property is considered a reservation. The Seminoles bought out Hard Rock, so they also own Hard Rock Cafe, Hard Rock Hotel, and Hard Rock Live in Orlando.

Correction, I read that the Seminoles are trying to designate it a "reservation" so perhaps it would be considered Tribal Lands.

Their Lakeland land is roughly 110 miles from the SJC border at 95. The 130 mile mark is right at World Golf Village. So northern SJC is still in play if it is considered tribal lands.

The reservation in Lakeland is actually in the Green Swamp, in unincorporated Polk County miles north of Lakeland.

https://seminoletribune.org/tribal-members-prepare-to-move-into-first-lakeland-reservation-homes/

They own around 900 acres up there. 130 miles as the crow flies from the NE corner of that property puts you right at the I-95/CR 210 interchange.

[thelakelander]

Assuming anything passes next year, I definitely don't see a casino opening in St. Johns or Nassau.

Ennis, what's your thinking for this conclusion?

1. I think most of St. Johns County falls inside of the 130 mile bubble. Other than Durbin Park, I believe other areas outside of that bubble would stimulate local opposition.

2. Based off the land use and zoning policies in Nassau and the county's political and demographic structure, I believe a major casino would draw significant local opposition there as well.

3. $250 to $500 million doesn't get you much in terms of a major resort style casino. So being located in the boonies doesn't make much sense on the surface for a smaller product. Such an investment would be a more feasible investment in Duval, where you'd have political support, a decent airport, a cluster of complementing activities, etc.

[jaxlongtimer]

Assuming anything passes next year, I definitely don't see a casino opening in St. Johns or Nassau.

Ennis, what's your thinking for this conclusion?

1. I think most of St. Johns County falls inside of the 130 mile bubble. Other than Durbin Park, I believe other areas outside of that bubble would stimulate local opposition.

2. Based off the land use and zoning policies in Nassau and the county's political and demographic structure, I believe a major casino would draw significant local opposition there as well.

3. $250 to $500 million doesn't get you much in terms of a major resort style casino. So being located in the boonies doesn't make much sense on the surface for a smaller product. Such an investment would be a more feasible investment in Duval, where you'd have political support, a decent airport, a cluster of complementing activities, etc.

Thanks for the perspective.  To your last comment, those investments are minimums.  I don't see anyone holding back from spending more if the ROI is there.  $1 to $2 billion for a themed resort casino would not be unreasonable if it could be justified by the amount of clients it attracts.  Therein, lies the big question.  For reference, how much does the PGA have invested in the World Golf Hall of Fame complex?

I think if its done right, a casino would be a stand-alone destination magnet and not totally dependent on "complementing activities."  I do agree the airport is an asset but the "big gamblers" can fly direct into St. Augustine on their private planes and/or gambling charters.  Some of it may come down to are St. Augustine, its beaches and I-95 enough to make St. Johns attractive.

As to the politics of it all, it would be telling to analyze the voting patterns in each county when the amendments are put to a statewide vote.  You may be right on your political call, but all three counties, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns, are undergoing significant transformations in their populations making political prognostications maybe trickier than in past years.

[jaxlongtimer]

1. I think most of St. Johns County falls inside of the 130 mile bubble. Other than Durbin Park, I believe other areas outside of that bubble would stimulate local opposition.

I just read the actual text of this amendment and I am not sure if you are measuring correctly.  It looks like the required distance is from very specific existing facilities, not generally owned tribal lands.  For the existing cardrooms, based on my Google Maps calculation, 130 miles from their Tampa casino puts you at Palm Coast's Matanzas Wood's Parkway interchange with I-95.  The amendment allowing Sands is even less restrictive, only having to be 100 miles away, or near Titusville.  Please read the relevant excerpts below and see if you agree.

The full text of both amendments can be found at:  https://initiativepetitions.elections.myflorida.com/InitiativeForms/Fulltext/Fulltext_2116_EN.pdf and https://initiativepetitions.elections.myflorida.com/InitiativeForms/Fulltext/Fulltext_2115_EN.pdf

"Tribal Facility" means the buildings in which any type of Casino Gaming is conducted at the following casinos pursuant to the Seminole Tribe Gaming Compact:
(a)  Seminole Indian Casino - Big Cypress, Clewiston, FL
(b)  Seminole Indian Casino – Brighton, Okeechobee, FL
(c)  Seminole Indian Casino – Coconut Creek, Coconut Creek, FL
(d)  Seminole Indian Casino – Hollywood, Hollywood, FL
(e)  Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino – Hollywood, Hollywood, FL
(f) Seminole Indian Casino – Immokalee, Immokalee, FL
(g)  Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino – Tampa, Tampa, FL

LOCATION LIMITATIONS.  A License Holder shall be authorized to conduct Casino Gaming only if the Gaming Floor of such License Holder is more than 130 miles on a straight line from all Tribal Facilities.  Prior to or after the commencement of Casino Gaming, a License Holder may relocate its Gaming Floor to another location within the same county, provided that such relocation is completed prior to December 31, 2025.

"License Holder" means a holder of an active cardroom license issued by the Department of Business and Professional Regulation, Division of Pari-Mutuel Wagering, as of January 1, 2022, or any person to whom such license is subsequently transferred.

Interesting that the amendment sponsor is headquartered in Jax Beach:

Sponsor Name: Florida Voters in ChargeSponsor Address: 3948 3rd Street S, #415, Jacksonville Beach, FL  32250

[thelakelander]

I think predicting political prognostications in the surrounding counties will be pretty easy. All we have to do is dust off the history books. It appears that St. Johns and Nassau are being fueled with Duval's White flight and the voting patterns tend to reflect it in recent races. Basically, the modern day shift of what took place with the urban core back in the 1950s and 60s. On the other hand, Duval seems headed in the opposite direction due to that shift coupled with a more culturally diverse population coming in. So specifically Duval is the one where the prognostications get pretty tricky at the moment. If I were a betting man, I'd move the majority of my chips to Duval on the roulette table. I'd put the second most of no casino coming to NE Florida. I'd also bet that the biggest money maker for a casino here will be local suckers, not big time gamblers flying personal jets into St. Augustine.

[jaxlongtimer]

Want to know how far $500 million goes for a Jax-style casino?

Take a look at Caesar's $500 million plans for Danville, VA.  Not very exciting.  Looks like a mall connected to a suburban hotel.  Not sure I would want this in our metro area unless they convert Regency or Gateway malls into this  .










https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/caesars-entertainment-unveils-renderings-for-500m-virginia-resort-2441533/