Casino coming to Jax?

[blizz01]

And I95 visibility.  Everyone heading South is guided around downtown to 295 via GPS.

[CityLife]

How many acres is the Prime Osborn site?

Prime Osborne is 18.8 and appears to be boxed in with no opportunity to expand it.

TU Site is 12 acres of upland, with potential to acquire CSX's surface lot on the other side of the Acosta and try to make pedestrian connection underneath. This would also require a replacement of the lost surface parking (either on the site or nearby).

Fairgrounds is 13.36, but there is also 10.66 parking parcel to the west across APR Blvd.

The District (Healthy Town) is 22.36 + 4.65 School Board + some nearby JEA tracts.

There are some large industrial tracts at Commodore Point, but cleanup, and land assembly might be difficult.

[thelakelander]

There are a couple of things working against downtown.

1. The casino operators don't want anyone leaving the site. They want people spending all of their money on food, drink, and entertainment on the property. A location Downtown provides visitors the opportunity to easily walk to other events, entertainment, restaurants, and bars downtown. Sure, a Downtown location will attract more visitors than a suburban location, but many will come no matter where they put it. Especially with world-class pools and amenities.

2. Even though there is cumulatively a lot of vacant land downtown, assembling one large, contiguous tract is likely a challenge. The Seminole Hard Rock in Hollywood is on 100 acres and the Tampa location is 37 acres (I'm sure they would prefer much larger if constructing this now). The Venetian (operated by Las Vegas Sands) is on 67 acres. A focal point of the hotel will likely be a Vegas/South Florida style pool/beach/bar system, which requires a lot of land.

See picture of the main pool at Seminole Hard Rock Hollywood (there is another huge one not even visble) to get a feel for what would/could be built.

Downtown Detroit has three casinos and they've done quite well. That downtown is also a lot better off today than it was before the casinos opened. A part of their requirement to open in Detroit is that they had to incorporate existing historic buildings. Totally the opposite of the Seminole Hard Rock example. However, if this thing passes, the city could end up with more than one and they could be in different locations, scales and sizes. For example, Bestbet could partner and/or expand and do something completely different than Las Vegas Sands. Here are a few pictures of Greektown Casino and the area just outside of it.


The casino is in the brick building on the right. It has ground floor retail facing the street. The casino is primarily located on the upper floors.


The casino is the brick building on the right. A new high rise hotel and parking structure was built on a surface parking lot on an adjacent block. The skywalk connects the hotel/garage to the casino.


A storefront retail space across the street from the casino that benefits from the extra foot traffic in the vicinity.


The side of the new construction hotel and garage, adjacent to a historic church across the street from the casino building, which used to be a factory at one point.


The backside of the casino (new construction), which is served by a peoplemover stop. Across the street are additional older buildings that have been repurposed to include street retail and dining.


The casino building is on the right. The first two pictures were captured in the morning when foot traffic was not present. This and the picture below, capture the same scene around 8pm on a random Wednesday.

[thelakelander]

I would love it downtown, but I doubt there is enough space to allow a big complex.  Airport area/northside makes sense due to space.

There's plenty of land in the Sports District. It's mostly industrial moonscape and surface parking lots. Something there would have great synergy with the sports venues already present and support the things the Jags keep proposing.

[CityLife]

Lake, on the Detroit post. There are two legislative options proposed currently.

One gives three existing cardroom holders to offer casino gambling if they spend $250 million on development and construction.

The other allows three casinos as long as they spend $500 million on development and construction.

Nobody is spending that kind of money on a historic rehab casino like Detroit. It basically has to be a mega resort like you see in Vegas or the two large Seminole Hard Rock resorts to even qualify. Also, a resortless casino is a lot more viable in cold weather places like Detroit than in Florida.

[Ken_FSU]

One gives three existing cardroom holders to offer casino gambling if they spend $250 million on development and construction.

The other allows three casinos as long as they spend $500 million on development and construction.

Nobody is spending that kind of money on a historic rehab casino like Detroit. It basically has to be a mega resort like you see in Vegas or the two large Seminole Hard Rock resorts to even qualify. Also, a resortless casino is a lot more viable in cold weather places like Detroit than in Florida.

$250-$500 million isn't going to get you as far as you think on a mega resort & casino.

Both Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casinos have had $1 billion plus put into each of them.

Newest Vegas mega resort & casino (Resorts World) had a price tag close to $5 billion.

[thelakelander]

Lake, on the Detroit post. There are two legislative options proposed currently.

One gives three existing cardroom holders to offer casino gambling if they spend $250 million on development and construction.

The other allows three casinos as long as they spend $500 million on development and construction.

Nobody is spending that kind of money on a historic rehab casino like Detroit. It basically has to be a mega resort like you see in Vegas or the two large Seminole Hard Rock resorts to even qualify. Also, a resortless casino is a lot more viable in cold weather places like Detroit than in Florida.

I was just showing a good example in an urban setting. There's more than enough room in the Sports District to accommodate a new $250 million mixed use project that includes a casino.

[thelakelander]

Just to follow up, Motor City Casino in downtown Detroit opened in 1999 at the cost of $825 million. Greektown was recently sold in 2019 for $1 billion. Looking at these numbers, a $250 to $500 million facility in Jax will be pretty small in comparison.

[FlaBoy]

There are a couple of things working against downtown.

1. The casino operators don't want anyone leaving the site. They want people spending all of their money on food, drink, and entertainment on the property. A location Downtown provides visitors the opportunity to easily walk to other events, entertainment, restaurants, and bars downtown. Sure, a Downtown location will attract more visitors than a suburban location, but many will come no matter where they put it. Especially with world-class pools and amenities.

2. Even though there is cumulatively a lot of vacant land downtown, assembling one large, contiguous tract is likely a challenge. The Seminole Hard Rock in Hollywood is on 100 acres and the Tampa location is 37 acres (I'm sure they would prefer much larger if constructing this now). The Venetian (operated by Las Vegas Sands) is on 67 acres. A focal point of the hotel will likely be a Vegas/South Florida style pool/beach/bar system, which requires a lot of land.

See picture of the main pool at Seminole Hard Rock Hollywood (there is another huge one not even visble) to get a feel for what would/could be built.

The reason the Seminoles have built on these locations, is because this is their reservation land. They had no options. Most casinos in the US that I have been to are in more urban environments including Vegas. I doubt Gaffney has any real inside scoop on this. This is also the type of situation that Khan can step in and use some of his sway.

With the amphitheater, Arena, baseball grounds, and stadium, it makes sense with the business model of Sands in Las Vegas in which they are building their own arena/music venue, have a massive convention space and had a big role in getting the Raiders to Las Vegas. They are all about shows and events getting people on property. There are roughly around 120 acres of usable property around the sports district and more if you are creative. Think about the actual venues just being a part of the property and bringing people to the casino on a nightly basis. The stadium is also going to have a roof and be basically new by the end of the decade. Makes sense to me. It would be the perfect cluster of uses for their business.

[Fallen Buckeye]

How about this for a possibility? Sands buys out and takes over the Orange Park Dog Track. After all, Best Bet is mentioned explicitly in one of the plans. There's interstate access. It's in close proximity to a lot of out of state visitors with NAS down the road. It has plenty of space to either demolish and build or rework the existing property. Plus, that move would knock out a local competitor.

[CityLife]

^Flaboy. The Seminoles have 6 casinos in Florida that are on "reservations", but only two that are Hard Rock Hotel and Casinos, which are each mega casino/resort destinations (The Seminoles have since bought the entire Hard Rock company). They invested a ton of money into the Hollywood/Tampa locations because each (while not Downtown) is still in a great location for a large destination casino.  Each is among the five most profitable casino's in the country. Any prospective casino operator in Jax knows that it will make a profit wherever they put it, as long as they locate it near 95 and build a quality project.

All I'm doing is pointing out that Downtown isn't the slam dunk that some think it could be. I said yesterday that "downtown is the logical choice, but it's also possible they locate it somewhere else along I-95 where they can easily assemble a large tract of land."

[jaxlongtimer]

I wonder if Duval is the only candidate.  Nassau and St. Johns could also be very appealing for a "resort" style casino and they have the land and more existing tourist oriented infrastructure/focus than Jax, especially in our Downtown area.

Over the years, St. Johns has been often mentioned as a serious candidate for a theme/amusement park so I believe that line of thinking would more likely parallel what a resort casino operator would be looking for.  Using St. Augustine's Spanish history as a theme (all casinos today appear to have one) would be a natural too.  Add the PGA and World Golf Hall of Fame, Ponte Vedra prestige and beaches and you have a very appealing mix.

How about this for a possibility? Sands buys out and takes over the Orange Park Dog Track. After all, Best Bet is mentioned explicitly in one of the plans. There's interstate access. It's in close proximity to a lot of out of state visitors with NAS down the road. It has plenty of space to either demolish and build or rework the existing property. Plus, that move would knock out a local competitor.

Any prospective casino operator in Jax knows that it will make a profit wherever they put it, as long as they locate it near 95 and build a quality project.

All I'm doing is pointing out that Downtown isn't the slam dunk that some think it could be. I said yesterday that "downtown is the logical choice, but it's also possible they locate it somewhere else along I-95 where they can easily assemble a large tract of land."

We agree, it's not a slam dunk that Sands would locate in Duval.  Rayonier's Wildlight in Nassau County would likely make a major pitch for this project and they have thousands of acres along I-95 up to the state line and along the exit for A1A.  They might even offer their land for a bargain price to create a magnet for surrounding development like he Fletchers did with the PGA, the Davis family did with Mayo or the Hodges did with UNF.

Best Bet operated in St. Johns County so maybe they could restore or still have permits for a facility to relocate there.  There are also still lots of large tracts in St. Johns along I-95 that could make a pitch too.  I even wonder if economically depressed Flagler could enter the fray.

I don't see anything in the proposed constitutional amendments that would require any new casinos to be located specifically in Duval.  On this basis, we should expect lots of potential competitors from other communities.  There is also no guarantee that Sands gets the nod for a Best Bet partnership or sole license.  Most importantly, it may be an uphill battle just to pass the amendments.

[Ken_FSU]

I don't see anything in the proposed constitutional amendments that would require any new casinos to be located specifically in Duval.

The amendments do, however, stipulate that the casinos must be more than 130-miles (straight line) from tribal lands.

Someone better at geography and more knowledgable about tribal borders could probably measure it with Google Earth, but feels like it might be close in some of these more southern counties.

[marcuscnelson]

The Best Bet in St. Johns was sold and is being redeveloped into a shopping center and apartments, so that's out.

And honestly, I'd seriously question if the support is there to open a casino in St. Johns at this point. A lot has changed in the last decade, and odds are the type of people living in the area now will fight it tooth and nail. I was just reading a thread on Nextdoor of people in Nocatee pissed that a toy store and another gym were going to their town center. A casino? Good lord.

[thelakelander]

Assuming anything passes next year, I definitely don't see a casino opening in St. Johns or Nassau.