Election 2015 Liveblog!

[CityLife]

Have a stupid question here.  Do people at the Beaches also vote for Mayor and At Large?  I know the Beaches has their own Representative on City Council, but if they elect their own Mayor for example in Neptune Beach, do they also vote for Jax Mayor and At Large seats?

Good question.  The beaches are all still Duval county so they vote for their local mayor and also for the mayor of Jacksonville.  The same holds true for Baldwin. 

Thanks!  Cool so they get to blame 2 mayors for screwing them around. Good deal.

Beaches residents pay 8.152 mils to Duval County, while JB gets 3.99 from its residents, NB gets 3.36, and AB gets 3.32. So technically they have more skin in the game for Duval County elections than the Beaches elections.

[edjax]

So as of 3:40, the turnout by party is:

Dems: 28.8%
Reps:   31.4%
Oth:     13.4%

As of 4:30.

D.   30.4
R.   33.3
O.   14.3

[Kay]

Why are your numbers and Stephens different by party turnout?

[Cheshire Cat]

For a reference point and to Kay's question, there are as of 02/23/15 a total of active voting members of 549,171
                                                                                                                                       Democrats:227,765
                                                                                                                                       Republicans:201,171
                                                                                                                                       Others:120,133

So any percentages of voters that would matter should come from the active voters list in order to be more accurate.    That can be figured for this moment from the numbers in Stephen's post just above this one. Of course those numbers will be in flux until after 7:00 when the last voters in line at that time cast their votes.

[edjax]

So as of 3:40, the turnout by party is:

Dems: 28.8%
Reps:   31.4%
Oth:     13.4%

As of 4:30.

D.   30.4
R.   33.3
O.   14.3

Edjax.  What are these percentages of?  28% of the registered dems?

My numbers are the percent of each party turnout, not the percent of votes cast by party.  So yes, as of 4:30, 30.4% of registered Dems had voted, etc.   

[Cheshire Cat]

So Ed is your turn out based upon all those who are registered to each party as opposed those who are registered and active voters?

[edjax]

So Ed is your turn out based upon all those who are registered to each party as opposed those who are registered and active voters?

Based upon your numbers above. (Active)

[Cheshire Cat]

Cool beans.  Thanks Ed.

[Jax native]

Brown needs 50% + 1

Assuming that Brown vaguely gets all of the dems, (42%) he needs to pick up 8% of the total vote.

And that Curry leads Bishop among the republicans by 60% of the republican votes cast (43% of the total vote) leaving Curry with 28% of the total vote and Bishop with 15%

And that Bishop leads Alvin in the Independents (11% of the vote) by 65% to 20%....Leaving Bishop with an additional 7% of the vote and Alvin with 5 % of the total vote

That leaves Brown with 47% of the vote, Curry with 28% of the vote and Bishop with 22%

Of course there are other vote breakdowns and assumptions, leaving 8 possible outcomes, but most of them do not show a Brown 50% + 1 using the present turnout %

Okay, Stephen I understand what you were saying now, but I do not know who Gloria is and because your post didn't include a "quote"  in your statement, or imply you were only answering a question...... I assume it was a stand alone comment.  My bad....

[MeredithOJohnson]

Hi All! I'm Meredith O'Malley Johnson, founder of the Jax Young Voters Coalition and veteran of 13 political campaigns. I'm happy to join in the discussion tonight on this historic City Election! I'll be going by both Jim Love for District 14's party tonight as well as Bill Bishop for Mayor's party.

[Cheshire Cat]

Great Meredith.  Look forward to hearing your comments.  Did you guys have sign waivers out today for various candidates?

[Cheshire Cat]

Keep in mind that 45.3% of all the votes in this election cycle will be made today.  Anything can happen. 

[MeredithOJohnson]

I also think Jim Love will have an easy race because he's been a responsive and competent City Councilman. I personally (not speaking for the Coalition here) think Bill Bishop is the most qualified and best candidate in the race. I think it might be a close one between Curry and Bishop.

[edjax]

So as of 3:40, the turnout by party is:

Dems: 28.8%
Reps:   31.4%
Oth:     13.4%

As of 4:30.

D.   30.4
R.   33.3
O.   14.3

As of 5:40.

D.  33.2
R.   36.4
O.   15.7

All. 30.51

[JaxMinion]

Turnout all over town is really surprising me. Lisa King's District 2 has precincts turning out at 47%, average of about 37%. There is evidence here of an effective turnout effort.