2008 Atlantic hurricane season

[adamh0903]

Hey man, i can talk weather all day long...

The last Vis Sat imagery looks to me like fay hasnt moved much in the last 2 hours The water vapor still shows some dry air to the SW keeping convection down on that side of the storm

[gatorback]

I agree the changes are subtle, but they are there.  Fay has slowed down and is moving West North West, vs the West track it was taking.  Either way, on Monday, things will be completely different.

[reednavy]

Remember, windfields at landfall can be huge, i.e. Katrina! We are likely to experience TS conditions. Which I hope for, get me out of class on Wed. Bad news, it'd close bridges.

[gatorback]

Let's face it, we need the water.  And I think this is a good "dry run" for something that could be far more devistating in the future.  We are after all, not even at the 1/2 mark for the 2008 season. 

[civil42806]

We need the water?  What part of town are  you living in?  MY wife has been draining the pool on the westside constantly for the past 3 months.  Haven't run my irrigation system for at least 3 months.

[chipwich]

Most of Florida's aquifers are still about 15% below their normal long term average.  Also, even though we have had a decent rain season in the Jacksonville metro, other parts of Florida are far from having a great year.  South Florida is still very dry and the everglades are still not completely as wet as they should be this time of year).  The panhandle is still relatively dry (Tallahassee is about 10 inches short of normal rainfall this year). 

So, while it may seem like we have had alot of rain (AND WE REALLY HAVE RECEIVED ALOT).  This storm will stand to benefit statewide water levels.  We need every drop of water before the start of our usually dry winters.

[civil42806]

ahhhh okay understand where your comming from now, thanks for the clarification

[chipwich]

Sorry that you will have to drain your pool yet again.  I bet it is a pain in the rear.

Perhaps, the best way to help get the water out of there is to invite Metrojax readers over for a pool party!

[Lunican]

[gatorback]

TS Fay has already killed 50 people.

[Captain Zissou]

I'm glad reednavy speaks your language, because I sure don't.  Were you saying that there could be two potential centers of circulation (i tried to pick apart the acronyms)?  Is this typical?

[gatorback]

It happens...not often. Like two tornados in the same area.  Not typical.  I'd like to know if it's the same thing.  Usually, when 2 centers form, the storms is basically eorganizing itself into a stronger storm.

[adamh0903]

I'm glad reednavy speaks your language, because I sure don't.  Were you saying that there could be two potential centers of circulation (I tried to pick apart the acronyms)?  Is this typical?

Some times when storms are in the rather weak stages Fay was in yesterday the Center of Circulation (CoC) redevelops. Sometimes this happens because of influence in the mid and upper atmosphere, yesterday there was an Upper Level Low (ULL) to the southwest that was affecting Fay to some degree. Today there is defiantly only one CoC and it can clearly be seen on Radar

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=amx&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

A lot of times the CoC is estimated by Satellite until Recon Aircraft can fly through the storm, and since it was over Cuba, the AF Recon plane was not able to fly through the center until this morning, at that time they actually repositioned the CoC

From the Tropical Prediction Center...

THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER OF FAY OVER
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ROTATION ALOFT APPARENT IN
RADAR IMAGERY.  WITH THIS FIX...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/10.
ASCAT DATA SOUTH OF CUBA PRIOR TO LANDFALL SHOWED THE SURFACE
CENTER BECOMING ELONGATED

One cool note is that Info from the USAF Recon plane this morning suggests that the Plane went right to the Cuban Coast (US Planes cant fly over Cuba) and flew down the coast at 5kft.

[gatorback]

One of the crew said they did fly over Cuba and that they share research information with them.

[reednavy]

Fay sucks, damn her!