2008 Atlantic hurricane season

[gatorback]

By ANTHONY McCARTNEY, Associated Press Writer 28 minutes ago

TAMPA, Fla. - The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season could be slightly busier than average, with a good chance of six to nine hurricanes forming, federal forecasters said Thursday in a new way of making predictions.
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials also said 12 to 16 named storms and two to five major hurricanes could form.

They said there is only a 60 to 70 percent chance for their predictions to come true, the first time officials gave a probability. They took that step following years of criticism of their long range forecasts, which have usually been fairly accurate but in some cases have been way off.

For example, government forecasters expected 12 to 15 named storms in 2005, but there turned out to be 28, the busiest season on record.

Forecasters stress that residents should always be prepared no matter what the seasonal forecasts say, because even a slow season can be disastrous. The government's seasonal forecasts don't predict whether, where or when any of these storms may hit land.

Gerry Bell, the agency's lead forecaster for Atlantic hurricanes, said probabilities were included because people had come to rely too much on the forecasts. "Basically it was interpreted as a 100 percent chance," he said.

An average season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes of which two reach major status with winds of more than 110 mph. This year should be about average or slightly more active, forecasters said.

Forecasters and emergency responders fear that coastal residents will be apathetic this year after the United States escaped the past two storm seasons virtually unscathed.

"Living in a coastal state means having a plan for each and every hurricane season. Review or complete emergency plans now â€" before a storm threatens," said Conrad C. Lautenbacher, NOAA administrator. "Planning and preparation is the key to storm survival and recovery."

Colorado State University weather researcher William Gray expects 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major this year.

Last year, there were 15 named storms and six hurricanes, two of which were major. The government predicted 13 to 17 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.

Gray was further off the mark. Before the start of the season, he forecast 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes, five of them major.

The Atlantic season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

[gatorback]

 By Luis Diaz

LEON, Nicaragua, May 29 (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Alma, the first cyclone of the Americas hurricane season, slammed into Nicaragua's Pacific coast on Thursday, its winds toppling trees and ripping roofs off flimsy homes.

Torrential rain fell in this colonial western city as Alma whipped up sustained winds near 65 mph (100 kph) and even higher gusts.

Power poles were flattened and the former capital of Nicaragua -- home to around 150,000 people -- was without electricity and telephone services, witnesses said.

Troops in military vehicles dashed out to coastal fishing villages and evacuated some people in danger. But other residents, many of them survivors of previous storms, were reluctant to leave their homes.

"Shelters are ready but some people are waiting a bit to evacuate," Lt. Col. Noel Narvaez told Reuters.

[gatorback]

Wow.  It's not even hurrican seasaon and we're being slammed already.  Oh no.  I don't like where this is going. 

[midnightblackrx]

lets hope they're as wrong as they have been the past two years 

[gatorback]

I overheard some of the old folks talking about the up and coming season.  They said, since Texas had such a mild winter that the hurricane season was going to be active.  Yup, the season starts today.  Are ya'll prepared?  did you buy enough batteries?  You got drinking water?  Have you reviewed your plans. Do you care?

[gatorback]

Wow. Tropical Depression ARTHUR has formd.  And so early in the season;  Ya'll better be prepared.

[Lunican]

An ill wind for gas prices
Traders say that even though you're already paying for the hurricane season, the price could spike to $6 a gallon if catastrophe strikes.

By David Goldman, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: June 1, 2008: 10:09 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Batten down the hatches: hurricane season starts on June 1. It's expected to be a rough one, threatening to upend refineries and disrupt pipelines in the southern United States.

And that could send gas prices, already nearly 20% above what they were last year, soaring even higher.

That's what happened three years ago when the Gulf Coast was battered by two hurricanes - Katrina and Rita - in the span of a few weeks.

"With the market the way it is now, a move in crude because of a hurricane could really be exacerbated," said MF Global energy analyst Don Luke.

Peter Beutel, oil analyst at Cameron Hanover Beutel, said if a Katrina-like hurricane were to hit in July, gas prices could go as high as $5 or even $6.

"The last thing this market needs at this time is a hurricane, because we can't afford to lose any of our refining capacity at this point," said Beutel. "If anything bullish happens with the market in this state, it would make it go absolutely crazy."

Like any disruption to supply, when a hurricane takes out drilling platforms and refineries, supply and demand principles lead to a jump in crude oil gasoline prices.

But even before the start to hurricane season, speculative traders have started to send oil and gas prices higher in anticipation of a hit to supplies.

"We're already seeing a hurricane premium on gas of about five to 10 cents per gallon," said Alaron Trading energy analyst Phil Flynn. "Especially since Katrina, we've seen traders build that into prices."

The last huge gas spike caused by a hurricane happened in the late summer of 2005, when Katrina and Rita brought many Americans their first glimpse at $3 a gallon for regular gas. The destruction from Hurricane Katrina alone led gasoline prices to jump 46 cents, or 17%, in just one week to a national average of $3.11, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Though we may never again see two Category 5 hurricanes enter the Gulf of Mexico in the span of only a few weeks, it may not take a similar occurrence to see a similar boost in gas prices again. Oil prices have soared through the roof on seemingly any kind of bad news recently, so analysts admit that this hurricane season's effect on gas prices is difficult to predict.

On the other hand, if no hurricane hits this season, Beutel said gas prices may fall off a bit. But with hurricane season ending Nov. 30, we'll have to wait until December to find out.

"That would have some downward pressure on prices, but who knows where we'll be at that point - we could be a dollar higher or lower than where we are now," he said.
The perfect storm

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its tropical storm forecast Thursday morning, saying there is a 65% chance of a stronger-than-average hurricane season and only a 10% chance that it will be weaker than normal. The outlook indicates a 60% to 70% chance of 12 to 16 named storms, with six to nine becoming hurricanes and two to five turning into major hurricanes.

But it doesn't take a strongly active hurricane season to cause major disruption to oil drilling and gasoline production in the Gulf.

"The makeup of a storm can have all the difference," said Flynn. "Slow moving storms have a tendency to churn up underground pipelines, so you don't need a category five to do a lot of damage."

Andy Radford, policy adviser for oil industry trade group American Petroleum Institute (API), said the average hurricane halts oil drilling production for over a week. Rig workers are forced to evacuate two to three days before the storm hits, and as soon as it's safe to return, they have to check for damage and restart production.

"When the offshore oil pumps get shut down, it takes a lot to get them back on," said Radford.

He said those big storms in 2004 and 2005 did considerable damage to oil drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, severely cutting into supply to gasoline refineries on the shore.

Though slow-moving, weak tropical storms over the Gulf of Mexico can halt oil drilling, powerful hurricanes that hit land can knock out refineries. That's because about 40% of U.S. refining capacity is located on the Gulf Coast, namely in oft-hit states like Texas and Louisiana. After Katrina and Rita, 30% of Gulf Coast refineries were shut down or operating with reductions.

"Because refining of crude oil into gasoline and other oil products is critical to meeting our nation's daily energy needs, disruptions in these operations can have an immediate impact on the nation's gasoline supply and petrochemicals," said Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) spokeswoman Robin Lebovitz.

And even though NOAA predicted a high number of strong, named storms for the 2008 season, no one can tell whether or not they will make landfall.

"You can have a very active season but none will make landfall, or a very inactive season but they all hit land," said NOAA spokesman Dennis Feltgen. "There's no way to predict if they will hit yet, because that science just doesn't exist."

It's rare for a refinery to be totally knocked out by a hurricane, but many are susceptible to wind and water damage that can limit supply to and from the facilities. Similar to offshore drilling platforms, refineries are sometimes shut down for more than a week before they can return to full operability, according to API Refining Issues Manager Cindy Schild.

Part of the reason Katrina and Rita led to such a spike in gas prices was that there weren't enough functional facilities to make up for the lost output. Although capacity at many U.S. oil refineries has been expanded, there hasn't been a new refinery built in the United States in three decades.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/22/news/economy/hurricane_season/index.htm?postversion=2008060110

[gatorback]

On July 2, a tropical wave emerged off of the coast of Africa. The wave is south of Cape Verde.  It has very strong winds and could strengthen into a tropical depression in the central Atlantic. These systems never occur this time of year.  That it just isn't Cape Verde season yet.  However, when these Cape Verde-types form this early in the season they are usualy forerunners of the much more destructive hurricanes.

[gatorback]

Wow.  Burtha forms an eye and becomes a hurricane our first in the 2008 season. 

[fsujax]

Bertha. Looks like the Cape Verde season is off to an early start. Let's see if the forecasts are better this year than last. The overactive hurricane season didn't occur last year, after all those dire forecasts.

[Jason]

Forecasting seasonal weather patterns is like guessing the year you'll die.  There are just too many factors and unknowns.  You might as well give a quarter to a mechanical fortune teller and ask them how many hurricanes we'll have.

If everyone treated the yearly hurricane season as if it would be the worst on record and be prepared, there wouldn't be as much damage and chaos. 

[gatorback]

I dont know. We have two rare events so far.  Arthur see above and now Burtha? I wonder if a revision to the forcast is coming? Was'nt there already an update back in Nov?

[RiversideGator]

Bertha is now forecast to veer northward and miss the US according to radio reports I heard earlier.

[Driven1]

global warming.

[reednavy]

If you remember last year, we had 2 category 5s that exploded suddenly and hit C. America.

I'm a meteorologist at NS Mayport and this stuff never ceases to amaze me. Everyone wants to say GW, umm, it's a cycle and much more complicated than that. Claiming GW shows you lack of knowledge, or event he slightest understanding of how the atmosphere works.