Positive News

[JC]

Retail sales up 1.6%.  

And no, I am afraid you are the one is blind to anything good happening.  

Nothing good will be happening until everyone who wants a decent paying job has one!  I can promise you that we are coming at this from very different situations!

Employment tends to come a little late to recovery parties. It would be easier if it were a leading indicator but it rarely is.  In the end it is one of the most important factors but it is alright to be positive about the other signs they may point the way to hiring.

Well, the problem is much larger than that.  If you are a trades person, carpenter, electrician, whatever, you are a slave to the masters of the economy.  Deny it all you want, or spin it however but facts is facts.  Trades people must wait for a need for a project, then wait for capital to be built, which depends a lot on banks loaning money (that we gave them), then bids go out, a contractor wins, and maybe he/she hires some guys, but its a big project so they must also borrow money for materials and payroll, again, from the banks, that we gave a ton of money to. 

It is a completely broken system that puts all the power into the hands of those who continue to screw things up.  The banks really screwed up and working people are truly paying the price, when all they want to do is provide for their families. 

I will be optimistic when working people are employed, and not a moment before.  I say that because all the number crunchers and executives can make things look good whether or not jobs are being created in America. 

Here is a crude example. 

Lets say t-shirt maker A is manufacturing all of their goods in the US.  We know it is more expensive to do business here, taxes, regulation, higher labor costs, health care and such.  Well, company A decides it is going to pull out and go to China.  The company does not lower its prices but its operating costs drop by lets say 30%.  Now on paper that looks effing great, but how about the 300 workers and their families laid off?  So yeah, working man=screwed, investors=paid, Chinese workers=exploited!

[BridgeTroll]

It is a completely broken system that puts all the power into the hands of those who continue to screw things up.

What an awesome description of Washington D.C.

[buckethead]

I am in construction too, JC. It has been so slow that I took a job with a private health insurance company recruiting providers into a MA  PPO plan.

Recently, I have put in several bids and feel I have an excellent chance of winning, and have even landed a job which will keep me and my guys busy for a month to six weeks.

Anecdotal, certainly, but good news for me and my crew.

You are most correct in your assessment that illegals are taking the lion's share of new residential construction, for what amounts to less than minimum wage.

I look forward to the time whenI feel comfortable enough to put in my two weeks notice in Corporate America.

Construction is a volatile industry, but it affords a certain freedom those in corporate America will seldom see.

[strider]

When looking at the numbers, always remember that when they say 12% are unemployed, then at least 83% are - that leaves 5% "lost or unaccounted for". When retail sales are up 1.6%, it is up from the low, not where it really needs to be.  So while some of those 83% are spending money, most are still afraid to.  Sure, some get tired of stilling on that old car or TV and go spend, but many are going to hang onto that car they just paid off and put up with that funny line in the TV.   

Then there is always a percentage of people totally unaffected by an economic downturn.  I remember in the seventies when people all around me were losing their jobs and I got a loan from my bank that turned out to be the largest amount they had ever loaned on a car (not as much as the average car loan today!).  A decade later though, I got to see what a downturn was all about.   In any case, those unaffected will continue to spend money.  And that is a very good thing as it keeps the economy going and should eventually help restore confidence for the others who are working. But those people are not enough to put those 12% back to work.

The only real positive news is that we are still standing.  The markets are adjusting to the price points at which people will start buying again, those who are working will continue to hopefully and we will be strong enough to survive the next blows that are coming.  When the dust settles from that, we can begin to see real progress forward again.

Construction I think is a great indicator of all of this.  We see new requests for bids, but often the people can't get the loans they need to do the work.  Those with the cash available to do the work end up getting great deals, but it keeps the guys working.  Slowly, those relatively unaffected by this downturn decide they are tired of waiting for that new floor or bathroom and do it. Slowly, the architects get a little busier and then so do the contractors.  But it is sporadic and there is still a lot of hesitancy on the part of the clients.

[St. Auggie]

"When retail sales are up 1.6%, it is up from the low, not where it really needs to be.  "

Strider, this is exactly my point.  I said in my OP that things are NOT PERFECT, but you have managed to suck the life out of some positive news.  Sure retail is slower than we would like, but it, like almost everything else, is trending upward.  Never did I say it was good out there.  But when a number points up, you cannot take that as anything but positive,youre trying though.  I get that lots of folks are still out of jobs.  But NO ONE WILL START HIRING UNTIL THE NUMBERS GO UP. Guess what half glass empty folks, they are going up.  You can be miserable about this or you can start to see the light at the end of the tunnel.  Its your choice.  I just wanted to point out that alot of the gloom and doom posted on this site over and over and over is not all coming true.  Sorry if news of MOVING in the right direction upsets some of you.

[JC]

I am in construction too, JC. It has been so slow that I took a job with a private health insurance company recruiting providers into a MA  PPO plan.

Recently, I have put in several bids and feel I have an excellent chance of winning, and have even landed a job which will keep me and my guys busy for a month to six weeks.

Anecdotal, certainly, but good news for me and my crew.

You are most correct in your assessment that illegals are taking the lion's share of new residential construction, for what amounts to less than minimum wage.

I look forward to the time whenI feel comfortable enough to put in my two weeks notice in Corporate America.

Construction is a volatile industry, but it affords a certain freedom those in corporate America will seldom see.

Hopefully things will pan out sooner rather than later. 

[St. Auggie]

What data have I manipulated? None.

Is the economy not in great shape right now? Yes.

Are things moving in a better direction.  I guess you have chosen no.  I have chosen yes.  

It was funny that last night they reported the huge surge by both Fedex and UPS, as just last week I happened to be sitting in a room with a bunch of upty ups from those companies that were talking about their major hiring plans.  Its not there yet, but if you truly believe this economy is going to be bad for the next couple of years than either you dont know what you are talking about or you are just choosing to be down about the economy's future.

[JC]

What data have I manipulated? None.

Is the economy not in great shape right now? Yes.

Are things moving in a better direction.  I guess you have chosen no.  I have chosen yes.  

It was funny that last night they reported the huge surge by both Fedex and UPS, as just last week I happened to be sitting in a room with a bunch of upty ups from those companies that were talking about their major hiring plans.  Its not there yet, but if you truly believe this economy is going to be bad for the next couple of years than either you dont know what you are talking about or you are just choosing to be down about the economy's future.

Let me put it to you like this.  Now matter how many things point in the "right" direction, nothing has changed for some of us.  We are mostly powerless to do anything about the situations we find ourselves in regardless of retail sales numbers or housing starts.

[St. Auggie]

JC, I am sorry that you obviously in a VERY difficult position, and wish nothing but the best for you, as I do for everyone.  I am sorry you feel powerless, but you are CHOOSING to not believe that these numbers are not a good thing for you.  As things progress building will increase, I believe most folks on this board call it sprawl.

[JC]

JC, I am sorry that you obviously in a VERY difficult position, and wish nothing but the best for you, as I do for everyone.  I am sorry you feel powerless, but you are CHOOSING to not believe that these numbers are not a good thing for you.  As things progress building will increase, I believe most folks on this board call it sprawl.

I appreciate the sentiment but you really know very little about my situation or how I choose to deal with it.  I feel its absurd to let our guard down when so many ready, willing and able workers are still on the bench.

I will be positive when there is a massive project like the rail system that gets approved and funded.  But I cant stop there because we all saw what happened at the court house with illegals and out of state workers being brought in.  We MUST have a guarantee from city officials built right into the project requiring a realistic percentage of workers live in Duval and the connected counties, also with a large percent coming from Jacksonville unions.  I realize that the contractors for laying the actual track will most likely be from out of state, but all the stations and infrastructure can be done by Jacksonville contractors.  

[St. Auggie]

Stephen, its funny that you posted that very article.  I am not concerned about the economy in the near future (3-5 years) but rather 15-20 years from now.  The govenment is going to bailout the banks again with respect to these loans, which this time will be a bailout for "mainstreet".  It will be another trillion dollar package.  Talk about a band aid over a crack in the Hoover Dam.  It will be the presidents third trillion dollar deal in 15 months.  Thats pretty impressive.  The good news is that the real problems wont come around again til the next recession.  Then we can go back to saying whoa is me again.  Its a cycle.  Always has been, always will be.

[JC]

Stephen, its funny that you posted that very article.  I am not concerned about the economy in the near future (3-5 years) but rather 15-20 years from now.  The govenment is going to bailout the banks again with respect to these loans, which this time will be a bailout for "mainstreet".  It will be another trillion dollar package.  Talk about a band aid over a crack in the Hoover Dam.  It will be the presidents third trillion dollar deal in 15 months.  Thats pretty impressive.  The good news is that the real problems wont come around again til the next recession.  Then we can go back to saying whoa is me again.  Its a cycle.  Always has been, always will be.

Its a cycle because dumb asses allow it to happen, again and again.  This crisis was wasted so I agree it will happen again, but its not something outside our control, if there is a will to control it.  I am not an economist, but I can see that the problem is in the financial sector and what it has gotten away with doing, what we have unwittingly allowed it to do.  If you get the chance, listen to this http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/405/inside-job

You can download that through their iTunes podcast, but you must do it before Sunday when the new episode goes up. 

[BridgeTroll]

but its not something outside our control, if there is a will to control it.

Who will control what?  How much control?  Will the control be worse? 

Control... control... we have assumed control...

How nice it will be when everything is properly controlled by those who know whats best for all of us...

[JC]

but its not something outside our control, if there is a will to control it.

Who will control what?  How much control?  Will the control be worse? 

Control... control... we have assumed control...

How nice it will be when everything is properly controlled by those who know whats best for all of us...

Are you even making an argument here?  I feel oddly compelled not to respond to this. 

[St. Auggie]

"His" third trillion dollar deal?

What a laugh.

Stephen, I do not want to make this a political debate.  I am no Bush fan and I am no Obama fan.  The fact that in the last 2 DECADES of our county the best president we have had got impeached speaks VOLUMES.  In the end the bank bailout will have ended turning a profit for the country, so I am not sure that even matters.  But yes the stimulus plan, the healthcare bill, and this next one for the banks, to pay them for their foreclosures, will be 3 trillion dollar deals.  I am not quite sure what there is to laugh about with that.