San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings

[MusicMan]

100% not surprised. Been saying this was never going to happen and got laughed at ................................

Who actually owns it? Regency Centers? Why don't they offer it up for sale? 

I feel sorry for the folks who own in the vicinity and have been waiting to "cash out" once groundbreaking began.  As things stand TODAY, who knows when anything will ever be done with this site. The owner has turned it into a disaster without ever doing anything to it. That's pretty hard to do, especially in the middle of one of Jax's best neighborhoods.

Put a stand alone Trader Joe's there and it becomes the hottest location in SM.

Damn, over 4 acres at that site and they can't make it work???

[JaxJersey-licious]

This latest setback to East San Marco is the most maddening to me. Why would a company that apparently spent all this money and effort on design and engineering go through neighborhood and environmental reviews studied and gathered data on the areas demos etc. to pull the permits and just back out of it completely after several months? Is this company over-leveraged? What could have possibly spooked them this year to have them just up and renege on such a high profile project?

And what about Regency Centers holding on to this parcel? If ArchCo feel the need to chicken out of it's grand plans what makes them feel that they will get any significant return on their investment now if they haven't over the last 10 years? I just wish they'd cut bait, sell it at a loss, write it off Trump-style and give someone else the opportunity to develop it into something.

I need to lie down

[JBTripper]

I don't understand how a 300-unit apartment building with no grocery store ONE MILE from this location is easier to get done than a 239-unit apartment building with a grocery store, in a neighborhood WITH NO GROCERY STORE. How can one not see the grocery store as a risk mitigator?

[Bativac]

[...]what about Regency Centers holding on to this parcel? If ArchCo feel the need to chicken out of it's grand plans what makes them feel that they will get any significant return on their investment now if they haven't over the last 10 years? I just wish they'd cut bait, sell it at a loss, write it off Trump-style and give someone else the opportunity to develop it into something.

Yeah - at this point, having sat on this thing for a decade plus, it does not seem to make sense to continue to sit on it in hopes of recouping the too-much-money that was probably spent on it to begin with. Sell it, write off the loss, and let something happen. There are grocery stores not too far from there (we always used either the Publix at Univ and Atlantic or the Winn-Dixie at Univ and San Jose) so whatever goes up doesn't have to be a full on grocery. Just something!

My oldest friend is a civil engineer born and raised in San Marco and left for Greenville a decade ago with no regrets. He talks of several projects that have had Jax in the running but ended up in Charleston or Greenville or someplace similar. Once the cities are compared there's, well, no comparison, as he puts it.

I don't know enough about real estate or planning or anything to speak to that. All I know is it's a shame to have yet another lot sitting vacant in Jacksonville.

[FlaBoy]

Were the above units apartments or condos?

[Tacachale]

^Apartments in this iteration.

[Tacachale]

100% not surprised. Been saying this was never going to happen and got laughed at ................................

Who actually owns it? Regency Centers? Why don't they offer it up for sale? 

I feel sorry for the folks who own in the vicinity and have been waiting to "cash out" once groundbreaking began.  As things stand TODAY, who knows when anything will ever be done with this site. The owner has turned it into a disaster without ever doing anything to it. That's pretty hard to do, especially in the middle of one of Jax's best neighborhoods.

Put a stand alone Trader Joe's there and it becomes the hottest location in SM.

Damn, over 4 acres at that site and they can't make it work???

Well, the reason you gave for saying it wouldn't happen (that the developer hadn't closed on the property yet) wasn't related to what actually transpired. They were never going to close until March or April anyway.

As the article says, Regency owns the property now. ArchCo and Blue Rock were supposed to purchase the land from them, and then sell back the retail element. Presumably, that's how Regency was going to make back their money from the original purchase of the property at the height of the market. They would never make back their money if they just sold to another developer now. And I imagine they still believe their project would be lucrative as they've been pushing it through several incarnations for 10 years.

I don't understand how a 300-unit apartment building with no grocery store ONE MILE from this location is easier to get done than a 239-unit apartment building with a grocery store, in a neighborhood WITH NO GROCERY STORE. How can one not see the grocery store as a risk mitigator?

It's unlikely the grocery store is the thing that held it up. As Lake said above, it's probably the massive parking garage in the middle that serves both the apartments and the retail.

This latest setback to East San Marco is the most maddening to me. Why would a company that apparently spent all this money and effort on design and engineering go through neighborhood and environmental reviews studied and gathered data on the areas demos etc. to pull the permits and just back out of it completely after several months? Is this company over-leveraged? What could have possibly spooked them this year to have them just up and renege on such a high profile project?

And what about Regency Centers holding on to this parcel? If ArchCo feel the need to chicken out of it's grand plans what makes them feel that they will get any significant return on their investment now if they haven't over the last 10 years? I just wish they'd cut bait, sell it at a loss, write it off Trump-style and give someone else the opportunity to develop it into something.

I need to lie down

Unfortunately, I think you may be right - Regency doesn't bait now, we'll be waiting for some time for anything else to come along. They haven't varied much from their original vision of the plan for 10 straight years, and it's had several false starts in that amount of time.

However, at this point I won't be happy with just "something" there. There's enough going on in the rest of San Marco for that. At this point we need a strong development at that space whatever it is.

[Jim]

At this point we need a strong development at that space whatever it is.

Do we though? More fucking traffic for an area that already sees regular back up and gridlock.  The slow-transformation of San Marco and Riverside/Brooklyn into Atlanta-lite is going to kill everything that makes those areas great.

Which is why the city has started getting serious about expanding public transportation options in the core and near core.

[Tacachale]

At this point we need a strong development at that space whatever it is.

Do we though? More fucking traffic for an area that already sees regular back up and gridlock.  The slow-transformation of San Marco and Riverside/Brooklyn into Atlanta-lite is going to kill everything that makes those areas great.

Yes, it's an important corner in the neighborhood and it needs a really strong development there. Or perhaps we should just focus on weak developments in Jacksonville to separate us from cities like Atlanta.

[jaxjags]

At this point we need a strong development at that space whatever it is.

Do we though? More fucking traffic for an area that already sees regular back up and gridlock.  The slow-transformation of San Marco and Riverside/Brooklyn into Atlanta-lite is going to kill everything that makes those areas great.

Having lived in ATL and just last week taking Riverside Ave from Brooklyn to Avondale, it struck me that Riverside Ave is becoming Peachtree Road, albeit on a much different scale. To bad for MMR.

[JBTripper]

At this point we need a strong development at that space whatever it is.

Do we though? More fucking traffic for an area that already sees regular back up and gridlock.  The slow-transformation of San Marco and Riverside/Brooklyn into Atlanta-lite is going to kill everything that makes those areas great.

It would take about 50 East San Marcos to even come close to the traffic problem that Atlanta has. It's not even comparable.

[edjax]

Please. Not another thread hijackd by the traffic cops.  Thanks. We know. We know.

[jaxlongtimer]

Let's do a little math based on numbers below from Jacksonville.com:

Construction costs are about $65 million, Jacobson said, for the main building with 239 apartments and 46,000 square feet of retail, along with 25 to 30 townhouses on the next block behind Wells-Fargo. Other costs, including design and financing, push it past $80 million.

It's not clear how much, past the $80 million, costs would rise to or if such amount includes capitalized carrying costs including construction interest.  Just using the $80 million, and allocating about $9 million to the retail square footage shown, leaves $71 million for no more than 269 living units (239 apartments + up to 30 townhouse units).  This averages about $264,000 per unit, which seems at the very highest range of multifamily rental unit costs in Jax.

On this basis, they would have to have very high finishes with some reasonable square footage, not unlike nice condos.  Thus, it would seem to me they would be better off to convert this to condos and sell them for at least $350,000 and up.  Given the great location and walk-ability, this should be achievable (I note a new home built along Hendricks on a divided lot backing up to Mitchell Avenue alongside the church was marketed for well over $1 million).  And, people almost always pay more for fee simple ownership square footage than for rental square footage.

Problem solved  !

[MusicMan]

A nice unit at The Marco Condominium just closed last week for $150,000. CASH buyer. 1 bed 1 bath 734 sf. No amenities to speak of but the location. It was on the market about 2 weeks. I agree with the sentiment that condos here "in today's market" would be a hit. Not sure about 2 years from now however.  Recent rehabs (SFR) in the area between The Square and Baptist are well over $200 per sf for small bungalows in great condition.

[thelakelander]

Here's an update. Basically, the numbers don't work...

"It's in a holding pattern," Jason Jacobson, regional partner with ArchCo Residential. "We've been struggling with our costs on the project, and that's been the story for the past year. It got to the point where construction costs have risen, interest rates have risen, financing costs have risen.

"We're trying to work it through Regency, put this together and move forward."

Interest rates are of particular concern, not just current rates but future ones.

"The whole interest environment has changed," he said. "Construction loans are done with variable interest rates. There are ways of hedging that cost, so there's financial engineering going on."

"It's by no means dead," Jacobson said. "There are some things that we could do to lower the debt cost on the project. Some may involve some contribution from Regency."

He said he expects some resolution one way or the other in the next 30 days.

Full article: http://jacksonville.com/business/real-estate/2017-04-03/east-san-marco-project-hold-again