2008 Atlantic hurricane season

[gatorback]

Gator:  How far back do you think accurate records go?

This is my take. Flying into storms started in the 1940s but didn't the Lockheed WP-3D Orion "Hurricane Hunter" start flying in the mid to late 70's I think.  I would consider our records to be accurate before the 70's; however, starting with the Orion, we got some better records.  So, I'm going to say, 1976?  How's that? 

Could we have accurate records without this thing?

[gatorback]

This is still not unusual... in fact a fairly active year is predicted by most models.  As with most... I will wait to see whether this a record breaking year or not.  If I remember correctly... last year was supposed to have been damn near horrific.

I'm just a avid tracker but I can never figure out how they predict the season.  Since I've been keeping track, I've noticed that when we have severe winters in the north, and mild winters in the south, as we did this year and in 2003, that the season was going to be active. I'm right so far this year...this is why i started the tread way back in May.  I just wonder why, they predict the season so far in advance.  I'm thinking they should wait or adjust the prediction after the winter...just my gut feeling I know which means nothing really.

[BridgeTroll]

Gator:  How far back do you think accurate records go?

This is my take. Flying into storms started in the 1940s but didn't the Lockheed WP-3D Orion "Hurricane Hunter" start flying in the mid to late 70's I think.  I would consider our records to be accurate before the 70's; however, starting with the Orion, we got some better records.  So, I'm going to say, 1976?  How's that? 

Could we have accurate records without this thing?

We can probably agree that accurate records might constitute 1900 to now.  Prior to that who is to say where a storm formed... if one formed... or how long it lasted.  Not to mention baro readings that we have now.  This leave a pretty slim history to rely upon...

[gatorback]

Who didn't see this one coming today.  Thanks Dolly 

Crude prices bounce back from $16 slide as Iran nuclear talks end without agreement and traders fear tropical storm in Gulf of Mexico.
...
Gulf storm: Traders also feared that Tropical Storm Dolly could interrupt drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm hit the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico over the weekend and reached the Gulf of Mexico Monday afternoon.

"The market is buying rumors of Dolly, because inventories are already so overdrawn," said Flynn. "They're probably overreacting, because it could only be a Category 1, but potentially any Gulf storm is disturbing."

It doesn't necessarily take a strongly active hurricane season to cause major disruption to oil drilling in the Gulf, however.

"The makeup of a storm can have all the difference," said Flynn. "Slow moving storms have a tendency to churn up underground pipelines, so you don't need a Category 5 to do a lot of damage."

The average hurricane halts oil drilling production for over a week, according to the American Petroleum Institute. Rig workers are forced to evacuate two to three days before the storm hits, and as soon as it's safe to return, they have to check for damage before they can restart production.

But by midday, it became apparent that Dolly's path would not interfere with many offshore rigs, according to Schork, and investors instead focused on the expiring contract.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/21/markets/oil/index.htm

[Charleston native]

Thanks for the info Bridge. Many of the hurricanes that form off of Africa around this time take typical routes like Bertha did. I remember one hurricane 15 years ago forming, swiping Bermuda, going towards Iceland, blowing south and formed again. It lasted much longer than Bertha.

As for the oil, drill here, drill now, pay less. Quit jerking us off...Congress!

[Ocklawaha]

The 'Century Club' card, was a wallet sized copy of the 'Hurriphooners' certificate

This is my take. Flying into storms started in the 1940s but didn't the Lockheed WP-3D Orion "Hurricane Hunter" start flying in the mid to late 70's I think.  I would consider our records to be accurate before the 70's; however, starting with the Orion, we got some better records.  So, I'm going to say, 1976?  How's that?

This photo is from the Hurriphooner's at NAS JAX in Nov 1958. The program of flying into the storms and gathering hard data started in 1945 and ended in 1978. Today it is still going on and the Navy is still active in it, but it is no longer a dedicated Navy program with it's own air wing, support etc... Today it is a co-op effort of NWS, NOAA, NASA, NAVY, USAF etc.
Yes, I date myself again, but this was going on quite a bit before y'all were aware of it. I remember talking to some of the flight crews, incredible stories for a young boy! The big old humpbacks sat North of, and at the east end of the old support buildings, in the aircraft tarmac at NAS. That would put collection at 60+ years.


P3 Just hanging around...

OCKLAWAHA

[Ocklawaha]

Here is how its predicted based on the readings and a strict search pattern, they read the "air" and line up the path. The following chart shows the likely path of Hurricane Bonnie.



OCKLAWAHA

[gatorback]

Dolly is now a hurricane.

Texas mobilized National Guard troops and residents along the Gulf Coast near the Mexican border were buying plywood, flashlights and gasoline as Tropical Storm Dolly gained strength Tuesday over the Gulf on its way to becoming a hurricane before it hits land.

Hurricane warnings were in effect for parts of the Texas and Mexico coasts, meaning hurricane conditions were expected in those areas by the end of Tuesday.

It's awesome that Texas has stepped up to the plate.  Okay, yes, it's a cat 1 one, but Burtha killed 3 and was nowhere near the states.   

[RiversideGator]

Hate to do this but the misspelling is driving me crazy.  The name of the storm was B-E-R-T-H-A. 

[gatorback]

Lol.  Sorry.  What can I say?  I'm an avid "amateur" hurricane tracker.  Lol.  Touché!  Honestly, the tornados from this are going to be bad...I've been told.  Let's see if the old timer's have the inside track on this.

As I said earlier, this is what's so cool about Bertha.  That Texas is taking this serious.  It's like a dry run for something that evidently could be worse and in my opinion; we're getting ready for the real deal when it comes.


[GatorBack Salutes] Brownsville, Texes 

[Jason]

There is a very distinct eye on Dolly.  Looks really organized.  The middle bands are making landfall right on the US/Mexico border.  It looks lik the eye will make landfall a bit further to the north putting the north and northwestern portion of the storm right on top of Corpus Christi.


Check out Weather.com

[gatorback]

Hurricane Dolly becomes a category 2 and slows down.  This means wide spread power outages now with more then 13,000 already without power in Camdon county. 

[gatorback]

About 30 minutes ago Dolly went to a Cat. 1 

[gatorback]

We're getting rain here in Hill Country and other parts of the state.  I've not heard of to much damage...seems Dolly just gave us some much needed rain.  Yeah Dolly!

[RiversideGator]

Hurricanes are part of nature and nature depends on them to replenish the lakes, streams and aquifers from time to time.