The Recession Will End in 4 months

[Driven1]

statistically speaking, that is.  Assuming that the recession started in Oct of last year, it will be over in August of this year.  The average recession last 10 months.

That's just averages and statistics though.

[Driven1]

BREAKING NEWS!!!
- minutes were released publicly from the last fed meeting - many of them are finally saying the word "recession" publicly.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24014616

[jaxphotocat]

Here is my prediction: 

1. "It will not be over in 4 months"

2. "It will get worse before it will get better"

3. "The longterm cure is a stronger middle class (better wages).

Of course I am just a cat.

: )

[jacksonvilleconfidential]

Here is my prediction: 

1. "It will not be over in 4 months"

2. "It will get worse before it will get better"

3. "The longterm cure is a stronger middle class (better wages).

Of course I am just a cat.

: )

I concur and, i believe, so do the peeps on NPR.

[Doctor_K]

BREAKING NEWS!!!
- minutes were released publicly from the last fed meeting - many of them are finally saying the word "recession" publicly.

The GDP report for the last two fiscal quarters showed positive growth.  Less than 1 and 2 percent per Quarter, respectively.  Slow.  Barely growth.  But positive growth nonetheless. 

A recession is defined as two successive quarters of contraction (I think negative growth is stupid and oxymoronic, regardless if it's used regularly).  We've not yet had that.  And, since the thread started in April, and said 'the recession will be over in 4 months,' we've got a month to go before the 'recession' is over.  So, essentially, according to that arugment, the worst is almost over right? 

Where's the problem?

[Driven1]

The GDP report for the last two fiscal quarters showed positive growth.  Less than 1 and 2 percent per Quarter, respectively.  Slow.  Barely growth.  But positive growth nonetheless. 

A recession is defined as two successive quarters of contraction (I think negative growth is stupid and oxymoronic, regardless if it's used regularly).  We've not yet had that.  And, since the thread started in April, and said 'the recession will be over in 4 months,' we've got a month to go before the 'recession' is over.  So, essentially, according to that arugment, the worst is almost over right? 

Where's the problem?

that definition of a recession is only one definition.  there are others.  as Warren Buffet said recently, even if we don't have the requisite back-to-back quarters of negative GDP growth, this still feels a whole lot like a recession.  and that "feeling" is what has led us into a bear market (officially a 20% decrease in the market indices) as of last week. 

btw, personally, i think we are 3-6 months out from the worst.  i think we are about go into a little bear market rally here and then another big crash.  that, IMO, will be close to the bottom.  2009 will not be great, but it will be a "recovery" year when compared to 2008. 

[Doctor_K]

Good points, Driven.  I'll buy that.

If your opinion of the worst being yet on the horizon, then dollar-cost averaging of regular & 401(k) investing stands to pay off big time pretty soon.  Continuing to buy during this two-year low will mean huge gains in the coming years.  Who knew so many so-called experts could be right?   

btw, personally, i think we are 3-6 months out from the worst.  i think we are about go into a little bear market rally here and then another big crash.

Which will probably coincide with the next meeting of the FOMC and a quarter-point raising of the key interest rate.  In the aftermath of the next big crash, the dollar will most likely strengthen due to the rising Fed rate and commodities most likely will fall.  Not precipitously, but fall nonetheless.

Then I'll get back into buying precious metals at lower prices.  

[BridgeTroll]

I still go with the traditional definition... 2 successive months of contraction.  If this is the case we have'nt even gotten to the recession yet.  Unemployment is still low... by historic standards.

[chris]

I still go with the traditional definition... 2 successive months of contraction.  If this is the case we have'nt even gotten to the recession yet.  Unemployment is still low... by historic standards.

Its only historically low because they changed the way they count unemployed persons. They use the number of people filing for unemployment. However, after thrre months you are no longer eligible to receive those benefits, whether or not you've found employment, so they have no way of counting everyone.

Also, for the 2000 Decennial Census, the Census Bureau changed the way they catalog what industry someone works in. Its interesting to look at the aggregated data from 1990 and 2000 and look at the changes. The aggregate looks pretty much the same, but looking at the raw numbers, you see that manufacturing jobs decreased across the board. Then you realize that Manufacturing is now lumped in with a whole slew of other things, like food production. So while true manufacturing psoitions were being eliminated you couldn't tell by looking at the Census.

Its also interesting to note that the manufacturing jobs being lost made around $35k base salary each year, not including whatever benefits the unions secured them, if any. The new jobs lumped into the Productions line average aroun $9/hour, not salaried and usually not benefitted, accounting for some of the stagnation in wages, hidden underneath a whole bunch of fancy adjustments.

Funny what you can do with the "merge cells" button on Exel

[mtraininjax]

It will be over when everyone who wants a job has a job. You never get to 0% unemployment because there are the 4% who would rather live off the government than find work. Sad but true. Look at the past data stats, they tell the story, maybe we got to 3.3% here in Jax, or down to 3%, but I think I remember 4% or 3.9% as the bottom, again, here in Jax.

[Dog Walker]

Nationally, anything under 5% is considered full employment.  There is always "churn" when counting the number of job seekers; people moving from one job to another or new high school or college graduates.

The unemployed layabouts you see in Hemming Park and hanging around the shelters aren't counted because they are not job seekers.  They are "out of the workforce" like a housewife is considered to be.  (No, no!  I'm am NOT saying that housewifes are the same as the layabouts!  Good grief, don't be so sensitive!)

[Sportmotor]

Here is my prediction: 

1. "It will not be over in 4 months"

2. "It will get worse before it will get better"

3. "The longterm cure is a stronger middle class (better wages).

Of course I am just a cat.

: )

...ARWOOROOOROOOROOOROOOOROOO!!

[danno]

Wait a minute... mabe it was dog months!

[Dog Walker]

Don't know about the rest of town, but there are definitely fewer "For Sale" and "For Rent" signs around Riverside than there were six months ago. 

[mtraininjax]

Dog - You are not looking hard enough, they are there and home prices in Jax took a dive last month, from ave sale of 155k to 139k. Its not getting better out there, by a long shot.