The Recession Will End in 4 months

[Bostech]

Reccesion is over.Let's go home.

[tufsu1]

ststistically speaking, the recession has ended....when the figures come out in Jan, they will show that GDP has grown for two consecutive quarters.

So, officially, the recession will have ended sometime around July...which still makes it an 18+ month dip (since Dec. 2007), the longest since the 1930s.

Remember that jobs always lag behind...nationally the unemployment rate didn't really kick up until late 2008, when we were lready well into the recession....same thing on the uptick end, except it takes even longer!

[Johnny]

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/It_s-a-wonderful-life-working-for-the-government-8697601-80294522.html

It looks like a happy new year for you -- if you're a public employee.

That's the takeaway from a recent Rasmussen poll that shows that 46 percent of government employees say the economy is getting better while just 31 percent say it's getting worse. In contrast, 32 percent of those with private-sector jobs say the economy is getting better, while 49 percent it is getting worse....

[finehoe]

From the Wall Street Journal:

"Sales taxes declined 9% to $70 billion in the third quarter compared with the year-ago period, the Census Bureau said. Income taxes plunged 12% to about $58 billion. Together, sales and income taxes make up roughly half of state and local tax revenue."

The WSJ then goes on to opine:

"State and local tax revenues tend to lag behind the downturns as well as the upturns in the economy because of the time it takes for collections to catch up with depressed store sales and diminished incomes."

This is true for income taxes.

It is absolutely false when it comes to sales taxes.

Sales tax returns are filed and monies are remitted MONTHLY - if there is an upturn in business - an actual upturn - it shows up NOT MORE THAN ONE MONTH LATER in sales tax receipts.  Period.

There has been no recovery in final retail demand and the proof is right here in the form of sales tax remittances.

Don't be fooled.

[tufsu1]

finehoe..the quote compares 3Q 2009 with 3Q 2008...it does not show 3Q 2009 vs. 2Q 2009...it is entirely possible for there to be an uptick in the curve without returning to last year's levels yet....remember that the real "crash" started in Sep/Oct of 2008.

That said, I suspect that 4Q 2009 will be better than 4Q 2008 in terms of sales taxes.

[Dog Walker]

I wonder what percentage of Jacksonville's 11.2% unemployment is from the loss of construction jobs?  They are going to take years to come back if they ever do.

If you have lost a construction related job, you had better start retraining now.

[Sportmotor]

I wonder what percentage of Jacksonville's 11.2% unemployment is from the loss of construction jobs?  They are going to take years to come back if they ever do.

If you have lost a construction related job, you had better start retraining now.

Alot are back in school for a different trade(I am one) although its not looking very bright still for a long time and it will be tough and very competitive for a decent job in any commercial or residential field for a decent pay with the excessive amount of people looking for a job. >_>

[JaxNative68]

stay away from architecture in general, it is always the last to pull out of a recession.

[Ocklawaha]

Don't despair y'all, youngest daughter who is in med school had a friend just graduate from a radiology program and was immediately offered a job with the VA in JAX for some 60K per year + benefits. Not too shabby for a rookie. Railroad grad programs offered at UNF and FSCJ are still running at 100% jobs to grads as the railroads are investing BILLIONS to improve the systems.  



OCKLAWAHA

[tufsu1]

statistically speaking the recession ended last year.

while slowing once again, the economy is still expected to grow at about 2% in 3rd quarter....recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth.