The Evolution of the Arlington Expressway

[Ocklawaha]

If someone proposed a retail center in downtown, without a doubt, it would get approved.  Just look at the talk surrounding various riverfront properties over the last couple of years.  We have a struggling Landing and all some could dream about is having Ben Carter build a SJTC on the Shipyards site.  Go back a few years and we even had the Peyton administration dreaming of creating some type of retail entertainment marketplace on the Southbank, at the expense of the Landing.

I think little Johnny might have been onto something.  Since the corporation known as the COJ is owned by the people, it would seem a bold new approach could be the city taking the role of developer.  Imagine taking a 4 block section of mixed buildings downtown and sitting down with teams from respondents to create 'new' out of the old. Repurpose, rebuild, restore, and naturally themed. 

Lake I know you don't care for the big box stores being a trick pony downtown, but I've got a hunch that if we could convince IKEA, BASS PRO, Regal Premium Experience (RPX), an upgraded theater format, etc... and plugging them into buildings such as many of the large historic downtown structures.  Attach fixed route mass transit, remote parking garages, and make it an offer they would want to refuse.

Just say'in but somehow I think it would work and work big.

[thelakelander]

What you've described would put us $100s of millions in the hole right off the bat and most likely fail for a few reasons.  For example, IKEA isn't coming because this market is too small and they have a couple of stores within a 2-3 drive of here. We'd be fools to pay Bass Pro to take riverfront property off our hands when there is more than enough evidence out there that cities rarely get back what they put in to lure them.  Furthermore, Regal probably has too many Jax theatres already.  Another theatre would have to be subsidized and it would only siphon off business from existing theatres throughout the city, including Five Points and San Marco.

Nevertheless, Peyton's Big Ideas plan didn't involve anything like IKEA, Bass Pro, etc. It was an idea that had some sketches of something like the existing Landing sketched at the location of Friendship Fountain/River City Brewing.  Needless to say, it died a quick death.  I'd go as far to say that this is an example of a public plan that you don't want and that the DIA should avoid.  We don't need city hall to be cherry picking private uses because a few people thinks its a good idea.  The market will decide what ultimately works or not on the private sector side.  We should stick with making sure our public policies aren't serving as obstacles the private sector must overcome to play a larger role in the revitalization of the area.

[Mathew1056]

Lake, I feel like this goes back to what we were talking about earlier in the thread. I understand that there are a lot of statistics and demographics that are researched before a large private business moves into a given area. I may have exaggerated my point when I said that SJTC property has peaked. I still think that the TC of today will be the Regency Square of tomorrow. A tarnishing day lies in its future. It only takes the biggest or newest thing to hit, lets say Nocatee, and the herds move on south. UNF will be the real anchor for that area, but I'm sure that's what Arlington businesses thought with JU. We have seen other cities in the southeast embrace their urban neighborhoods and downtown areas with returns. The bones exist here to create something great. Investment will happen one day, with the right legislative bodies in place.

What you've described would put us $100s of millions in the hole right off the bat and most likely fail for a few reasons.  For example, IKEA isn't coming because this market is too small and they have a couple of stores within a 2-3 drive of here. We'd be fools to pay Bass Pro to take riverfront property off our hands when there is more than enough evidence out there that cities rarely get back what they put in to lure them.

An IKEA may be out of range, but I would have no problem with something like Target or Publix on Adams St. next to the Freeway. Get people used to coming downtown to shop. I definitely don't think we should be giving up riverfront property. I don't see why the city shouldn't give up some of the land it owns in LaVilla near 95. They gutted the land and all its charm, put something on it already.   

Furthermore, Regal probably has too many Jax theatres already.  Another theatre would have to be subsidized and it would only siphon off business from existing theatres throughout the city, including Five Points and San Marco.

Isn't this a zero-sum game right here? Isn't this communities and shopping centers vying for business? I don't think a movie theater downtown would hurt existing cinemas. Each location you cited ares small and offer food. These places operate by catering to customers. I think a cinema the size of Regal would have even less of an effect on neighborhood businesses. It seems like two different types of customer demographics.

[spuwho]

Lake has a good point however, any downtown development will probably just siphon off customers from other parts of Jacksonville. And that refers to the point I was trying to make.

The Jacksonville market can only support so many retail hubs before you reach saturation. Any new development simply drains off the others.

Using my mall example earlier, it could be 20-30 years before the surrounding densities can be built to support so many choices.

Jacksonville is growing, but its not growing fast enough to support so much retail development.

Another thread made light of whether the urban core needed people first, or the destination first. In the case of Jacksonville, it most definitely needs people first. Jacksonville is over served and needs more people in less square miles downtown before another retail development is considered.

[Ocklawaha]

Lake, you totally missed the point of my post.

1. First, we identify a large chunk of land downtown.

2. Have the DIA and CofC put out a few RFI's or RFP's

3. Sit down with the groups/businesses and coordinate a focused effort for  a themed few blocks.

4. Put together the incentive package, including: parking, streetcar or Skyway.

In short, go way beyond the normal approach that 'business will decide the future,' by becoming the development engine. I used Ikea, Bass Pro and Regal as examples. In reality it might work to pull in a hotel, several retail shops, grocery, etc.  Go after them using the argument that there is strength in numbers. LaVilla, Stadium District, Laura Trio/Barnett, and more come to mind as blank slates where the city could partner and guide the process.

[thelakelander]

I guess I was confused but only so because of this initial statement:

If someone proposed a retail center in downtown, without a doubt, it would get approved.  Just look at the talk surrounding various riverfront properties over the last couple of years.  We have a struggling Landing and all some could dream about is having Ben Carter build a SJTC on the Shipyards site.  Go back a few years and we even had the Peyton administration dreaming of creating some type of retail entertainment marketplace on the Southbank, at the expense of the Landing.

I think little Johnny might have been onto something.  Since the corporation known as the COJ is owned by the people, it would seem a bold new approach could be the city taking the role of developer..... 

Lake I know you don't care for the big box stores being a trick pony downtown, but I've got a hunch that if we could convince IKEA, BASS PRO, Regal Premium Experience (RPX), an upgraded theater format, etc... and plugging them into buildings such as many of the large historic downtown structures.  Attach fixed route mass transit, remote parking garages, and make it an offer they would want to refuse.

Just say'in but somehow I think it would work and work big.

^This is completely different from what's described below:

Lake, you totally missed the point of my post.

1. First, we identify a large chunk of land downtown.

2. Have the DIA and CofC put out a few RFI's or RFP's

3. Sit down with the groups/businesses and coordinate a focused effort for a themed few blocks.

4. Put together the incentive package, including: parking, streetcar or Skyway.

In short, go way beyond the normal approach that 'business will decide the future,' by becoming the development engine. I used Ikea, Bass Pro and Regal as examples. In reality it might work to pull in a hotel, several retail shops, grocery, etc.  Go after them using the argument that there is strength in numbers. LaVilla, Stadium District, Laura Trio/Barnett, and more come to mind as blank slates where the city could partner and guide the process.

In your second statement, this does not describe what Peyton's Big Ideas plan was (it's actually the opposite) and this isn't playing the role of a developer.  This would be an example of using public policy and assets in a manner to enable quality market rate development.  In this case, the city doesn't determine if the final use private sector use should be a hotel, IKEA or whatever.  Instead, the city makes it easier for the private sector to develop a project that fits into the city's overall goal of what it envisions the area's future atmosphere to be.  For example, COJ issues an RFP for a site in hopes of landing commercial development.  Whatever group responding to the RFP plays the role of determining the best specific uses for the site (which is where the actual market and demographics start to come into play).  On top of that, you then have a DIA, DRRB, etc. to work with the developer in an effort to properly shape the project's design, etc. I actually think this may be taking place with some of the recent decisions by Mayor Brown (ex. LaVilla RFP, $9 million for downtown projects, etc.).

[thelakelander]

Lake has a good point however, any downtown development will probably just siphon off customers from other parts of Jacksonville. And that refers to the point I was trying to make.

The Jacksonville market can only support so many retail hubs before you reach saturation. Any new development simply drains off the others.

I'm for letting the market play a larger role in deciding the uses.  Thus, when we automatically start name bombing, IKEA, Regal, Publix, or what I heard at my JAX 2025 table today......tear down Bostwick building and put an Apple store there in its place, we're approaching the point where reality has walked out the door.  Instead of worrying about specific retail to a specific location, worry about laying the foundation for an economically sustainable neighborhood.  That's not as sexy and headline grabbing as a $200 million aquarium on predetermined site "A", but it's a revitalization strategy that has worked time and time again across this country.

Another thread made light of whether the urban core needed people first, or the destination first. In the case of Jacksonville, it most definitely needs people first. Jacksonville is over served and needs more people in less square miles downtown before another retail development is considered.

We have 194,000 people living within a five mile radius (75,000 within a three mile radius) of the heart of downtown Jacksonville.  That's more than enough of an urban residential population base to play with.  Perhaps its time to look into finding solutions to the problems that have caused the market to not take full advantage of that population?

[spuwho]

We have 194,000 people living within a five mile radius (75,000 within a three mile radius) of the heart of downtown Jacksonville.  That's more than enough of an urban residential population base to play with.  Perhaps its time to look into finding solutions to the problems that have caused the market to not take full advantage of that population?

Point well made.

[Mathew1056]

We have 194,000 people living within a five mile radius (75,000 within a three mile radius) of the heart of downtown Jacksonville.  That's more than enough of an urban residential population base to play with.  Perhaps its time to look into finding solutions to the problems that have caused the market to not take full advantage of that population?

Where are these people currently going to shop? I will give it to you, I think the market finds its equilibrium point. If the TC is the best market to make money in companies will follow. But aren't are retail centers competing against each other? If downtown could score a large retail investment than maybe the area will capture back some of the people lost to other centers. The current Brooklyn development could be the catalyst for such future developments. A Fresh Market will surely pull in a certain demographic into downtown. People will go there if they have a reason. 

[thelakelander]

Where are these people currently going to shop? I will give it to you, I think the market finds its equilibrium point.

The retail market is too diverse to treat as one segment.  What people and what type of shopping?  SJTC is a regional shopping mall, so it's actually pulling a population more than just Jacksonville.  You most likely aren't going to see anything similar to this pop up in this city anytime soon.  As the regional population grows to the South and SJTC ages, you'll see something replace it in prominence and popularity in Clay or St. Johns County.

If we're talking about groceries, that 194,000 is most likely being served by Publix, Winn-Dixie, Wal-mart and soon Neighborhood Markets in the surrounding area.  On this level, to a degree, this is a market where the future of Arlington Expressway lies.  With the downfall of Regency Square, it's transitioning from a regional destination to one that specifically caters to a side of town.  It's not SJTC that's killing it, it's River City Marketplace that's having more of an impact on it. If you're looking for neighborhood retail to come specifically to what we refer to as downtown, follow the roadway traffic counts.  Downtown's two best spots for potential are State & Union and Riverside Avenue. 

[Ocklawaha]

Back to specific stores, Ikea, big box and the role of developer including the RFP's/RFI's. What would make this unique is WE should imagineer the 'place', going as far as to identify preferred retailers, hoteliers, restauranteurs and residential developers. A hybrid if you will, of Main Street USA, ordinary planning procedure, and private mall developers. The details could be hammered out in planning sessions and then aggressively pursued.

[thelakelander]

Back to specific stores, Ikea, big box and the role of developer including the RFP's/RFI's. What would make this unique is WE should imagineer the 'place', going as far as to identify preferred retailers, hoteliers, restauranteurs and residential developers.

This is where I'd say a city government would be overstepping its boundaries.  How can a city identify "preferred" retailers, etc. without acknowledging how the industry works and seeing if a specific location even meets the demographics of the targeted private sector entity? 

Since you've mentioned them several times in the past, let's use IKEA.  Their most basic requirement for a market is population. IKEA’s market research calls for a minimum of two million people within about 40-60 miles of a single media market.  Metro Jacksonville, which includes Duval, St. Johns, Clay, Nassau, and Baker Counties, has less than 1.4 million total.  This equates to.....game over.  Not just for downtown, but the rest of NE Florida as well.

Tone it down a bit and take a look at something like CVS.

New Store Location Criteria

Deal Structure
Locations
Acquisitions
Procedure
Free Standing Prototype

Deal Structure

We prefer the following for Free Standing sites:

Fee for Service or Self Development
We will also consider Build-to-Suit deals for other convenience-oriented sites. Terms would be:
25 years
Options â€" 10 year periods

Locations

Highly visible â€" we require pylon sign identity.
Easy access â€" with traffic control.
High traffic locations.
Free standing sites with drive-thru pharmacy capability, 1.5 - 2.0 acres.
Parking for 75 to 85 vehicles.
Minimum of 18,000 people in a trade area.

Acquisitions
CVS has a history of successful and professional purchases of existing independent and small chain businesses. Our Acquisition Staff is ready to review opportunities to buy existing pharmacies with landlords and operators.

Procedure
All approvals are obtained by presentation to the CVS Real Estate Committee; meetings are held monthly. Site plans required from principal as part of presentation. The CVS Regional Director of Real Estate handles all site investigations and negotiations.

Free Standing Prototype
96 x 137 = 12,900 Square Feet

source: http://www.cvscaremarkrealty.com/new-location-criteria

^Then take a look at where their existing locations in the area are.  Guess what, they have ZERO presence in nearly all of pre-consolidated Jacksonville but there are available corridors that fit their site criteria.   I'd expect, as time goes on, this is the type of retail product the market will bring.  Might not be sexy are one trick pony sized enough to attract suburbanites to downtown but its something needed to support the residential population everyone hopes for. 

IMO, where the city can help best is to make sure policy is in place and followed to give the private sector an opportunity to take advantage of the area's demographics.  Not a politician taking a property off the market and holding it for "their" preferred big box retailer.

[Ocklawaha]

Columbia
Union
Bradford
Alachua
Flagler

Brantley, GA
Ware, GA

This is exactly what I mean about identifying who might be desirable, that 60 mile radius around Jacksonville, exceeds the 'rule' for IKEA. At 60 miles you have to include the above counties and add another 650,000 persons.

Not all larger retailers don't just show up to build at STJTC, the Town Center is actively seeking them out. To me this is the job a DIA could undertake in the urban core. You develop a list of preferred venues and present the concept to them, you are not dictating that X is better then Y, simply that X is one of (fill in the blank) type of retailers we'd like to plug in at our location.

As I recall before the boom collapsed IKEA was planning a Jacksonville store. The may indeed end up next to Bass Pro in St. johns, but it would be great if we could show/could have shown how their store would fit in to our downtown plans.

[thelakelander]

^You forgot that they already have two stores in Central Florida and another in Atlanta.  Believe me, they could care less about serving rural North Florida/Southern Georgia counties that don't meet their demographics.  There are a lot of more realistic options a city like Jacksonville could be doing to add life to its core than chasing things the market hasn't grown to support.  IKEA doesn't need to be tricked or bribed into opening in Jacksonville.  If there is a market here where they think they can make a profit, the opportunity will come.

SJTC is managed by Simon Properties, which is the country's largest REIT.  The retailers you see at SJTC are typically clustered at several of their other properties across the country.   It's unrealistic to expect DIA and city hall to be Simon or any other private developer.  DT is also a neighborhood.  It shouldn't be treated like a mall.

[thelakelander]

Here is a blurb from a story about IKEA and Jacksonville that was published last summer:

The South Florida Business Journal’s report that IKEA USA will build a second store in the Miami area â€" 40 miles from an existing store â€" begged the question: When will the Swedish home goods mega-retailer open a Jacksonville store?

For Swedish meatball and lingonberry enthusiasts, the answer is unfortunate: Not any time soon.
Joseph Roth, a spokesman for IKEA USA, said he noticed posts on Facebook asking “What about Jacksonville?” when the Miami plans were announced.

“Basically it comes down to population size, and you tend to need approx 2 million people within a 40 to 60-mile radius or trade area,” Roth said. “And you guys aren’t there yet.”

That’s the biggest deciding factor in the store’s expansion plans.

“If you don’t have population size, you don’t really get to the second point,” he said. “It’s basically our stores are so large, they’re very expensive to build and need lots of customers to support them.”

There will now be four IKEA stores between Orlando and Miami: IKEA Orlando, IKEA Tampa, IKEA Sunrise, which is north of Miami, and the new IKEA Miami, to be built in Sweetwater.

“We get inquiries from developers and brokers all the time from Jacksonville, and they say, ‘What can we do?’” Roth said. “Well, double your population. It’s nothing personal. We recognize we have many customers up there, but not enough to support a large IKEA store.”

http://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/blog/2012/08/when-will-ikea-come-to-jacksonville.html

From the horse's mouth.  There's nothing the DIA can do to change the fact that the market is too small for this particular retailer.  However, this isn't something the DIA should be overly concerned about, IMO. Just make sure the urban core's environment is business friendly and market rate opportunities will present themselves.