A Closer Look At 220 Riverside

[Captain Zissou]

^ I don't know as much about what a good pre-lease rate would be, but based on the uniqueness of the product offering, the quality of the project (for the market), the urban location, and the potential for the neighborhood,  I see this project as being a pretty hot ticket.  My biggest hope is that this development receives a very positive response that spurs more development in the area. 

[downtownjag]

15% really? wow thats what they were saying when 11E and the Carling were being converted. Now you can't even get in without being on a waiting list. Some southside , virgin land developers are getting scared!

And 11E and Carling are in "high crime" areas... or so the uneducated say

[simms3]

^ I don't know as much about what a good pre-lease rate would be, but based on the uniqueness of the product offering, the quality of the project (for the market), the urban location, and the potential for the neighborhood,  I see this project as being a pretty hot ticket.  My biggest hope is that this development receives a very positive response that spurs more development in the area. 

One thing that could make it a hot ticket moreso than anything else is its appearance.  There is nothing in Jax that looks remotely like it.  We have built dozens of these things (look exactly the same with minor facade changes) here in Atlanta in the past 10-15 years and they have become really boring (I count no less than 10-15 UC right this minute).  Charlotte, Nashville and Raleigh are also building or have built dozens of these things...so Jax is joining the Sunbelt "hybrid" club...stacked garden style wrapped around a garage with a little bit of retail.  Just wait...you guys have 20 years ahead of you of seeing this thing duplicated over and over again.  It might be fascinating now, but in 10-20 years you'll be screaming for something different.

[edjax]

^^Cool story bro.  Thanks for the heads up on our development the next 20 years!!

[Captain Zissou]

I have been in Charlotte a few times lately and you're right that the 5 floor apartment building with retail on 35% of the bottom floor with a mostly hidden garage is somewhat ubiquitous in the outlying areas of uptown.  It still looks better than most of what we have here, but it's just a more evolved version of the same thing.  It's a proven winner and a cost effective way to go.  Don't kill me if my timeline is off, but a progression of Jax multifamily can be seen through;  Villas at St Johns, Tapestry Park, 5000 Town, now 220 Riverside.

[Tacachale]

Please allow me to put in my two cents as a Realtor.  Location is the primary driver of price/rent and this area is well known for it's high crime rate and seedy activities. (Review the JSO Crime Statistics for verification.) Tenants who can afford $1,200.00 a month will not accept Brooklyn.  I doubt if the property managers will be able to get more than 15% occupancy in the building in the first several years of operation.

WTF is it about this project that's drawing single-purpose troll accounts to knock it on this site? It's especially amusing that they're using the same (dubious) points in different ways.

[fsquid]

I have been in Charlotte a few times lately and you're right that the 5 floor apartment building with retail on 35% of the bottom floor with a mostly hidden garage is somewhat ubiquitous in the outlying areas of uptown.  It still looks better than most of what we have here, but it's just a more evolved version of the same thing.  It's a proven winner and a cost effective way to go.  Don't kill me if my timeline is off, but a progression of Jax multifamily can be seen through;  Villas at St Johns, Tapestry Park, 5000 Town, now 220 Riverside.

I don't know if you've been in the area around Selwyn and Colony (maybe do a Google Street view), but that little area is like their own town now with those things.

[CityLife]

Please allow me to put in my two cents as a Realtor.  Location is the primary driver of price/rent and this area is well known for it's high crime rate and seedy activities. (Review the JSO Crime Statistics for verification.) Tenants who can afford $1,200.00 a month will not accept Brooklyn.  I doubt if the property managers will be able to get more than 15% occupancy in the building in the first several years of operation.

WTF is it about this project that's drawing single-purpose troll accounts to knock it on this site? It's especially amusing that they're using the same (dubious) points in different ways.

A lot of people in this town, including developers, suburban homeowners, and business owners are threatened by quality urban infill in the urban core and they should be. Believe it or not, I even know a few people with interests in the urban core that were hoping some of the Brooklyn projects would never get built because they could potentially divert development away from their interests.

I really don't think people understand the potential ripple effects of a development like this. Like Simms said, this development is nothing innovative regionally or nationally, but in Jacksonville it can potentially be groundbreaking and spur a whole wave of similar projects. Urban living, whether it be at the Beach, Riverside, San Marco, or Downtown absolutely crushes suburban living in a lot of regards, especially for young people, and a lot of people are starting to realize that. The shift of young people to urban areas in Jax has been happening, but when it really takes off with developments like this, ballgame. Those with interests in maintaining the status quo are scared and should be.

I think in the next 5-10 years we will see a major vacuum open up between the urban core and St. Johns and Clay Counties. Those that want to live in suburban areas with good schools will still want to live in SJC, but those without kids and young people will want to live at the beach, Urban Core, or Town Center. This means a lot of places outside of this will be no mans land and turn into lower income areas. We've seen this happen quite a bit in the past few years, but it will accelerate even quicker if the urban core continues to take off. Obviously Deerwood, Deercreek, and other nice neighborhoods will stay nice, but they will become more and more surrounded by lower income areas. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Mandarin was the most mixed income area in all of Jacksonville in 10 years.

[simms3]

^^I see that happening potentially in Mandarin due to its isolation and location (still Duval County with mediocre schools compared to SJC just 5 min away, but at far reaches and not close to employment center), but the SS will always be a "happening" and desirable spot.  Even the densest of cities have their "good" suburban side of town (west of Boston, northwest of Detroit, north of Atlanta, south of Miami, north of Dallas, west of Houston, west of Philly, south of SF and east of Oakland, etc etc).

Despite what people want to preach and believe, the majority of people, young, middle-aged, and old will and still live in the suburbs, and it will always be that way.  The notion that all of a sudden young people are living in the city for the first time is false.  The only difference is that now young people don't have to go live in their car in NYC or SF to be "in" the city and can find microcosms of city life within their own hometowns for much less.  A young person in Jax can rent a "Penthouse" with luxury in 11 East for less than it would cost to rent a room in an ok area of Manhattan or SF.  Still, even in Jax given the lower salaries, $1200+ rent is a big step and definitely puts you in the 1-3% range, and so even most in Jax won't be able to afford urban living there...in steps the suburbs where most live and will always live.

[CityLife]

Simms, the SS encompasses a huge amount of land. To say it will always be happening is ridiculous. Sure pockets of it may be. Despite my distaste, Tinseltown and Town Center will remain popular. Especially with all the employers and UNF nearby. However, tell me why in 5 years anyone would choose to live at Beach and Kernan or Baymeadows when they can live at hotspots like the urban core, Town Center/Tinseltown,  the beach, or SJC for quality suburbia? They would do so primarily for affordability reasons, which is the beginning of those areas descent. When an area loses its place in the desirability hierarchy, it will naturally decline in value, which of course will then lead to other negatives.

Look at Arlington, look at Regency, look at Sunbeam Road, Losco Road, Old St. Augustine between San Jose and 295, Beach Blvd from east of St. Nicholas to Southside Blvd. These are all areas that have declined quite a bit in the past few years. They simply aren't as desirable as they used to be and it will only get worse, as the housing stock is less than impressive. As more people move to SJC (believe me its happening more than people realize) and the urban core, these areas will only decline further. Like I said there will be nice suburban parts of Jacksonville, but until the school system in Duval County gets fixed those areas will be SJC and to a lesser extent Fleming Island.

Have any empirical data or articles that say that the "trend" of young people moving back to cities is false? Because I haven't seen one and that isn't the case in Jacksonville. There IS a movement of people back to the urban core in Jax and it will only continue, which will have ripple effects. NE Fla has a finite amount of wealth and middle to upper income people. To suggest that when those middle and upper income folks move in the masses that the vacuum will be filled with others of similar standing is...well counter to what you have always preached about Jacksonville being a poor place.

[PeeJayEss]

^^I see that happening potentially in Mandarin due to its isolation and location (still Duval County with mediocre schools compared to SJC just 5 min away, but at far reaches and not close to employment center), but the SS will always be a "happening" and desirable spot.  Even the densest of cities have their "good" suburban side of town (west of Boston, northwest of Detroit, north of Atlanta, south of Miami, north of Dallas, west of Houston, west of Philly, south of SF and east of Oakland, etc etc).

I don't understand why anyone would live that far out and not just pull the trigger and move to SJC. Maybe if you hate walking AND want bad schools. Based on these vague descriptions of "good" suburban sides of other towns, the Southside would be an exurb and Riverside, San Marco, Springfield, etc would be the suburbs. All of those areas are more urban than anything in Jax but DT and the Southbank. They are old suburbs, whereas Southside is the new suburb. Not a knock against living there one way or the other, but it doesn't compare to those other 'burbs.

Despite what people want to preach and believe, the majority of people, young, middle-aged, and old will and still live in the suburbs, and it will always be that way.  The notion that all of a sudden young people are living in the city for the first time is false.  The only difference is that now young people don't have to go live in their car in NYC or SF to be "in" the city and can find microcosms of city life within their own hometowns for much less.  A young person in Jax can rent a "Penthouse" with luxury in 11 East for less than it would cost to rent a room in an ok area of Manhattan or SF.  Still, even in Jax given the lower salaries, $1200+ rent is a big step and definitely puts you in the 1-3% range, and so even most in Jax won't be able to afford urban living there...in steps the suburbs where most live and will always live.

The suburbs are not all that old a concept, so sweeping generalities about how most people will live there "always" smack of naivety. I don't think there was ever a huge population of people living in their cars. All the large cities have a range of housing options, many of which are quite affordable. NYC, for example, was not always so expensive. That too is a fairly recent development. Nonetheless, you can still live on the cheap there if you have to, even in Manhattan.

No one is asserting that young people never lived in urban areas before. What is unique is people that grew up in the burbs are moving into cities. Because the burbs aren't all that old, this is relatively new behavior, and it is interesting because it was their parents that grew up in the city and moved out to the burbs. Most of them will probably move back to the burbs to raise kids, but that doesn't mean its not still a significant trend.

I don't think anyone is claiming that Jax can support the same rental rates as NYC or SF, nor do we think a Penthouse ($1800/month rent, btw) at 11E is the absolute lap of luxury (your quotation of luxury seems to indicate that your readers have a feeble understanding of luxury, as opposed to your refined self). NYC is more expensive, no doubt, but its silly to suggest you can't find a place in Manhattan for under $2000/month. You can find a pretty nice place with that in any part of the city, and you'd probably have a proper doorman, and some legitimate retail options under you. The difference is, in Jax, there are much fewer available, and a demand for more. and plenty of people can, and will, afford it.

[Captain Zissou]

^JuTrying to get a more rounded view of the neighborhood, since we're now talking about Mandarin.  Add to or change what I've said here, because this is just coming from memory.. 

Mandarin used to be agriculture and huge estates that were really a rural area until the 50s or 60s. There are enormous Mansions on the river down off Beauclerc Road, Scott Mill, Mandarin Road, and others. The bulk of the neighborhood (huge) was largely just a land grab by profit minded developers that spread south during various boom periods.  I am sure there are mansions that date back to the early 20th century, but real movement to that area started in the early 60's, but picked up in the 70's for residential west of San Jose blvd.  East of San Jose started to develop with some middle class neighborhoods around Sunbeam and Old St Augustine early-mid 70s and spread rapidly south during the 80s and 90's to 295 and spread south of 295 during the boom.

[Ocklawaha]

Please allow me to put in my two cents as a Realtor.  Location is the primary driver of price/rent and this area is well known for it's high crime rate and seedy activities. (Review the JSO Crime Statistics for verification.) Tenants who can afford $1,200.00 a month will not accept Brooklyn.  I doubt if the property managers will be able to get more than 15% occupancy in the building in the first several years of operation.

Here is a breakdown of all categories of crime within certain neighborhoods. If your contention is that people won't move to Brooklyn because of crime, then absolutely NOBODY should be living in Cedar Hills.

Start Date:   1/1/2012
End Date:   11/14/2012
Date Range:   319 days

Total number of reported crimes, all classes:

Baymeadows - 394
Arlington - 594
Avenues - 168
Mandarin - 205
Cedar Hills - 838
Ortega Hills - 367
San Marco - 232
Murray Hill - 806
Springfield - 734
BROOKLYN - 137

[CityLife]

^JuTrying to get a more rounded view of the neighborhood, since we're now talking about Mandarin.  Add to or change what I've said here, because this is just coming from memory.. 

Mandarin used to be agriculture and huge estates that were really a rural area until the 50s or 60s. There are enormous Mansions on the river down off Beauclerc Road, Scott Mill, Mandarin Road, and others. The bulk of the neighborhood (huge) was largely just a land grab by profit minded developers that spread south during various boom periods.  I am sure there are mansions that date back to the early 20th century, but real movement to that area started in the early 60's, but picked up in the 70's for residential west of San Jose blvd.  East of San Jose started to develop with some middle class neighborhoods around Sunbeam and Old St Augustine early-mid 70s and spread rapidly south during the 80s and 90's to 295 and spread south of 295 during the boom.

Sounds about right generally, except that there are quite a few 70's/80's neighborhoods outside of the areas you mentioned. A good portion of the area north of Loretto, east of San Jose, south of 295, and west of Old St. Augustine was built in that era. There is a lot of crappy housing stock in that area, along with some sub-par multi-family. There is also a lot of mediocre to poor housing stock south of Old St. Augustine and east of Hood Landing. I know Mandarin fairly decently and I'd guess that >50% of the area east of San Jose and South of Sunbeam is made up of poor housing stock from the 70's/80's or shoddy multi-family. One of Mandarin's biggest issues going forward isn't just the poor housing stock, its that there will be little to no value in tearing down the multi-family or poor housing stock for infill. In which case, those areas will only get worse.

[carpnter]

Please allow me to put in my two cents as a Realtor.  Location is the primary driver of price/rent and this area is well known for it's high crime rate and seedy activities. (Review the JSO Crime Statistics for verification.) Tenants who can afford $1,200.00 a month will not accept Brooklyn.  I doubt if the property managers will be able to get more than 15% occupancy in the building in the first several years of operation.

Here is a breakdown of all categories of crime within certain neighborhoods. If your contention is that people won't move to Brooklyn because of crime, then absolutely NOBODY should be living in Cedar Hills.

Start Date:   1/1/2012
End Date:   11/14/2012
Date Range:   319 days

Total number of reported crimes, all classes:

Baymeadows - 394
Arlington - 594
Avenues - 168
Mandarin - 205
Cedar Hills - 838
Ortega Hills - 367
San Marco - 232
Murray Hill - 806
Springfield - 734
BROOKLYN - 137

How big is Brooklyn compared to the other areas?