Greater Jacksonville

[KennyLovesJAX]

Did you know that the experts predict that in the year 2030, the Greater Jacksonville region will be home to 2 million people. Sounds good right?? What do you all think?

[Joe]

Was that the bizjournals.com projection? They recently had an article which put Jax at 1.9 million by 2025.

I think it's great that the region is growing in general. It beats stagnation. However, I'm extremely concerned because Jax is already so sprawled out. At current zoning densities, Duval County only has room for so many more low-density tract homes. Even if we fill in Cedar Swamp (South of JTB) and the far Westside, that's not enough room to fit 500,000 people.

Consequently, we're facing the reality that most of this growth (and tax revenue, and wealth) will be outside of Duval County. This could leave Duval with a stagnant economy, even as St Johns, Clay, or even Nassau are booming around us.

I think that Jacksonville - right now - needs to devote resources to altering our zoning code to allow for quality high-density residential districts that are competitive with the suburbs in attracting wealthy residents. This could mean doing a better job fostering high-density development downtown, allowing New Urbanism in exisiting suburbs, retrofitting sprawl on the Southside with urban business centers ... or all of the above.

The unfortunate reality is that - under current zoning - a 2,000,000 person metro Jacksonville might still only mean a 1,000,000 or less population within city limits. This is a real shame, as our underutilized downtown core alone could probably accomodate 50,000+ instead of the 2,000+/- that it does today.

[Wacca Pilatka]

I have a Jacksonville book from 1993 that cited a study estimating a 1.3 million metro population by 2020, with an absolute high-end of 1.9 million. 

[heights unknown]

I think we'll be well over 2,000,000 by 2030; if a study estimate 1.3 to 1.9 by 2020, then we should be around 2.1 to 3.0 million by 2030 (somewhere around there). Anything can happen to facilitate a faster population growth or boom from now till then.

Heights Unknown

[reednavy]

People seem to underestimate how much developable land there still is in the north and west parts fo the city. This city alone at build-out is capable of 1.5mil residents.

[Wacca Pilatka]

I hope that the growth consists of many Jaguars fans...

[Captain Zissou]

I think the city can tolerate many more residents, but it is the type of development that will determine our future.  If we continue to sprawl out, the city will just blend into the surrounding counties.  If downtown remains the hub, with dense development in the surrounding neighborhoods, we will become a destination city that will put us at the high end of those predictions.

[tufsu1]

2 million is a fair number for the region as a whole by 2030....that's about 2-3% growth per year....some counties, like Clay and St. Johns will likely grow at a faster rate....while Duval will go more slowly (albeit with more growth in pure numbers).

As for "buildout" I do not believe there is such a thing....the NEFRC has stated previously that if development patterns continue on the current trend, all available land in Duval County would be developed sometime around 2035.

Look at it this way....Manhattan reached "buildout" over 100 years ago...did NYC stop growing?

No....what happens in almost every metro area is once most of the land has been consumed or travel distances become too great (i.e., Atlanta), then redevelopment at higher densities occurs.....the urban core of most cities is at a distinct advantage when this time comes, as there's not much densification that can be done with gated golf course subdivisions.