2009 Atlantic hurricane season

[Jason]

 Man, this rain is going to be around for a while then.  We sure need it though.

[BridgeTroll]

http://www.jacksonville.com/news/metro/2009-05-29/story/poll_finds_public_not_ready_for_hurricane

Poll finds public not ready for hurricane

Fewer coastal residents feel threatened or plan any safety measures.
By Carole Fader Story updated at 4:35 AM on Friday, May. 29, 2009 
The Florida Times-Union

Hurricane season begins Monday. So does the apathy.

And this year, we're even more apathetic than before.

Despite five hurricanes of Category 3 or stronger last year, most coastal residents from Maine to Texas don't feel threatened by a hurricane and aren't adequately prepared for one, according to a Mason-Dixon poll released Thursday.

"Many behavioral polls show that people choose not to pay too much attention to hurricane season," said Marty Senterfitt, chief of emergency preparedness for the city of Jacksonville. "They think it will happen to someone else, not me."

The Mason-Dixon poll shows that 66 percent have no hurricane survival kit and 55 percent don't have a family disaster plan.

And even though the number of hurricanes has increased over the last decade, the number of people who feel no threat from storms actually rose - to 62 percent from 54 percent the previous year, The Miami Herald reported.

The poll also found that 16 percent mistakenly think the government will provide food, water and shelter immediately after a storm.
"That's a stunning number," Ron Sachs, coordinator for the National Hurricane Survival Initiative, told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. "It's a minority who believe someone's going to come and take care of them."

Government officials say they don't have the resources to immediately help all those in need. That is why the Federal Emergency Management Agency urges each family to take responsibility for its own survival, the Sun-Sentinel reported.

Sachs' group is a public-private project that focuses on hurricane-vulnerable states to promote storm preparedness. It commissioned the Mason-Dixon poll of 1,100 adults from 18 Gulf and Atlantic coastal states who were interviewed between May 6 and 11. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Some of the poll's other key results:

83 percent of respondents have taken no steps to make their homes stronger.

48 percent have no flood insurance and 15 percent are not sure if their policy covers flood damage.

21 percent did not know their home insurance policy number or how to reach their agent or carrier.

13 percent said they would not evacuate even if ordered to do so.

Jacksonville's emergency preparedness team is focusing on community outreach and speaking engagements to inform people about storm readiness. Getting people's attention is the same struggle every year.

"Unfortunately, when we have tropical storms and they miss us, people think that's all hurricane season is," Senterfitt said.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association has predicted the 2009 season will be near normal this year with a 70 percent chance of having nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes of category 3, 4 or 5.

"Hearing that it's going to be an 'average' season causes people to relax," Senterfitt said. "They hear average season, not active season. They might not remember that Andrew [a Category 5 hurricane] hit in a slow season."

The poll also pointed out that coastal residents still have many gaps in knowledge:

97 percent didn't know that garage doors are the structural component most likely to fail during a hurricane. Property owners can easily strengthen garage doors at low cost with a reinforcement kit.

70 percent didn't know that storm surge represents the greatest potential for a large loss of life from a hurricane, yet storm surge can account for deaths as far inland as 20 miles.

56 percent of residents believed candles or kerosene lamps are suggested items for their survival kits. Emergency experts actually warn that these items can pose a serious fire hazard.

51 percent believed masking tape would keep windows from shattering. In reality, masking tape provides no protective value at all.

The key for residents is to learn their risk, Senterfitt advised.

"Know if you live in an evacuation zone, for instance. In a survey done of our coastal counties, only 42 percent in Duval County knew if they lived in an evacuation zone. If we tell people to evacuate and 60 percent don't realize we're talking to them, we've got a big problem," he said. "And on the other side, if people leave who don't need to leave and they tie up the roads, we've got another issue.

"Yes, the chance of getting hit by a hurricane here is probably small," he went on. "But when one hits, the results are devastating. We can't take these things lightly."

carole.fader@jacksonville.com, (904) 359-4635

[gatorback]

With the possibility of a weak to moderate El Nino event coming later this summer and into the fall, this could curb some action. I'm sticking with June 27th as the earliest we see anything really form. Subtropicals do not coun, even if given a name.

Why not?  Are you just saying?  Because in that case, I'm just saying I nailed the date.  Again.

I said something in the last week of May. Just FYI as I pat my back.

But, seriously, some subtropical storms have caused a lot of damage.
And, Ana, is the further north forming storm ever. 

[reednavy]

Um, TD#1 never got named.

[gatorback]

Wasn't it subtropical in nature?

[reednavy]

nope, full on trpoical as it was over the north wall of the Gulf Stream. It will be no longer after tomorrow morning.

[fatcat]

may I suggest we predict the first named storm? It does not matter what category it is in. If it has a name. It counts. The date is the date it got named. My bet is June 24th.

[Doctor_K]

TDs don't get named until they become TSs, no?

[reednavy]

correct

[Jason]

may I suggest we predict the first named storm? It does not matter what category it is in. If it has a name. It counts. The date is the date it got named. My bet is June 24th.

I'll go with June 17th for Ana to appear.

[gatorback]

After referring to the the magik 8-ball, it has been determined that Ana will form the 1st week of July.  Asking the specfic date yielded July 3.  So, I'm going with the MagiK Ball's date of July 3.

[reednavy]

Just tossing this out there. Keep an eye open to the weather over the next week as the two systems in the C. Atlantic, per model guidance, are looking at threatening FL. The first being old TD #2, which has blossomed back to life and may get reclassified tonight or tomorrow and if it comes to fruition will approach the EC of the state by late next week, Thurs-Sat. time frame. The 2nd system, behind it, could pose a threat by early the following week, if guidance stays consistent, which it has for the past 2 days.

Regards, your KNIP/NAS Jax meteorologist

[jandar]

Thats a big if there Reed. Too much wind shear and dust to disrupt things right now.

[reednavy]

It is noted that Ana is currently struggling with mid level dry air, as evidenced by the recent exposure of the LLC. Note that the low level stratocumulus deck, associated with a building subtropical ridge, has expanded. It is currently impinging on the western semicircle of the system, and Ana is entraining the dry air as a result. However, since the upper air environment remains favorable (and will become more conducive), I believe that the current trends are temporal. As Ana progresses westward, we should witness further intensification within 24-36 hours

[urbanlibertarian]

Huh?  Excuse me while I swab the low level stratocumulus deck.  Aye aye, cap'n.