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2009 Atlantic hurricane season

Started by gatorback, February 12, 2009, 12:45:56 PM

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gatorback

#30
May 13, 2009, 01:34:57 PM Last Edit: May 13, 2009, 01:36:45 PM by gatorback
Do hurricanes affect global warming, which can affect hurricanes?

In the discussion about global warming, there is a new chicken-and-egg argument.

Harvard University scientists have discovered that tall clouds in hurricanes can add moisture to the stratosphere and increase global warming, which in turn can cause hurricanes to get stronger, adding more moisture to the stratosphere....and on and on.

Our weather develops in the troposphere, the lower atmosphere.  Immediately above, the stratosphere is weather-free. But in analyzing cloud data from 1983-2006, researchers David M. Romps and Zhiming Kuang found that water vapor in the stratosphere has increased 50% over the last 50 years. They believe it's because strong hurricanes have very tall clouds which can punch into the stratosphere.

Hurricane_rita_hot_towers

There years ago, NASA discovered something similar. High-resolution satellite data of Hurricane Rita showed gigantic "hot towers" extending vertically over 11 miles high, shown to the right.  They saw something similar in Hurricane Katrina right before it intensified into a category 5 hurricane while over the Gulf of Mexico.

Romps and Kuang believe the ice crystals in these cloud towers evaporate, leaving water vapor in the stratosphere which could eventually increase global temperatures.

Making this more complicated, other scientists believe global warming can cause hurricanes to strengthen.  So does that mean hurricanes will keep getting stronger and stronger?

Remember, this is all just research. People are asking questions and finding answers, which often lead to more questions.


'As a sinner I am truly conscious of having often offended my Creator and I beg him to forgive me, but as a Queen and Sovereign, I am aware of no fault or offence for which I have to render account to anyone here below.'   Mary, queen of Scots to her jailer, Sir Amyas Paulet; October 1586

jandar

#31
May 13, 2009, 01:53:22 PM
Its still debated whether she was Cat 2 or Cat 3.

QuoteStill, superstition or not, I think that the section of coastline between Flagler Beach and St. Simons Island is one of the least impacted coastlines along the Atlantic Ocean

You really need to read this:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/history/index.html

Here's a condensed list of storms that have hit us here in NE Florida.
Quote1565 September
Hurricane - sank the French Fleet from Ft Caroline in present day Jacksonville

1571 September
Hurricane - St Augustine Landfall

1599 September
Hurricane - inundated St Augustine

1638 August
Hurricane

1641 September
Tropical Storm

1674 August
Hurricane

1707 September
Hurricane

1753 August
Tropical Storm

1769 September
Hurricane

1794 October
Hurricane

1797 October
Hurricane

1804 September
Hurricane

1806 September
Hurricane

1811 October
Hurricane

1812 October
Hurricane (same dates as one in 1811, 2 storms back to back years)

1813 September
Hurricane - possibly a major

1824 September
Hurricane

1825 June
TS (backdoor hit)

1825 October
Hurricane

1830 October
Tropical Storm

1831 June
Tropical Storm (backdoor hit)

1835 August
Tropical Storm

1837 August
Hurricane -possibly a major (barometers in Puerto Rico read 28.00 | 948mb )

1837 August
Tropical Storm - second storm passes offshore in same month bringing TS force winds to coastline

1837 August
Tropical Storm - backdoor hit (3rd "hit" within same month)

1837 September
Tropical Storm (a total of 6 storms affect NE Florida and Georgia that year alone)

1841 September
Tropical Storm

1842 August
Tropical Storm

1842 October
Hurricane backdoor hit

1842 October
Tropical Storm - possible recurve of earlier storm in October

1844 September
Hurricane

1846 October
MAJOR Hurricane - backdoor hit, 917mb in Havana, 901mb near Key West

1848 September
Hurricane - backdoor hit

1848 October
Tropical Storm - backdoor hit

1852 October
Tropical Storm

1853 October
Tropical Storm

1854 September
Hurricane (Major Hurricane for Georgia)

1861 August
Tropical Storm

1867 June
Tropical Storm

1871 August
HUrricane

1871 August
Tropical Storm

1871 September
Tropical Storm

1874 September
Tropical Storm

1877 October
Tropical Storm (backdoor hit)

1878 September
Hurricane - 989mb reading, weak Cat 1

1880 August
Tropical Storm

1880 October
Tropical Storm

1882 October
Tropical Storm

1885 August
Tropical Storm

1885 October
Tropical Storm (backdoor hit)

1888 October
Tropical Storm

1893 June
Tropical Storm

1893 August
Hurricane (major in Georgia)

1893 October
Tropical Storm

1894 September
Hurricane

1894 October
Tropical Storm

1896 September
MAJOR Hurricane

1897 September
Tropical Storm

1898 October
Hurricane (major in extreme NE Florida and Georgia)


BridgeTroll

#32
May 13, 2009, 03:05:26 PM
Has the definition of what constitues a hurricane changed at all from the 1500s to now?  What about before 1565?
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

David

#33
May 13, 2009, 03:15:24 PM Last Edit: May 13, 2009, 03:23:17 PM by David
Yeah,  because if you want to consider any tropical storm, weakened hurricane, depression or a disturbance a direct hit, we get plenty of those.

I believe what Jason is trying to say is it's rare to take a direct hit from a major hurricane, cat 3 and above on the NE Florida cost.

And it's all because of that statue too. Fact.

I'm not sure what the definition of a hurricane was 300 years ago....that's a good research topic!



David

#34
May 13, 2009, 03:44:19 PM

jandar

#35
May 13, 2009, 05:20:34 PM
Quote from: David on May 13, 2009, 03:15:24 PM
Yeah,  because if you want to consider any tropical storm, weakened hurricane, depression or a disturbance a direct hit, we get plenty of those.

I believe what Jason is trying to say is it's rare to take a direct hit from a major hurricane, cat 3 and above on the NE Florida cost.

And it's all because of that statue too. Fact.

I'm not sure what the definition of a hurricane was 300 years ago....that's a good research topic!

Its only rare for us since we have been here to actually record it for a few centuries.

Read this:
http://www.boston.com/lifestyle/green/greenblog/2008/08/bostons_hurricane_history_eigh.html
Even Boston, MA has shown a propensity for hurricanes. Research is showing that 13 "Hurricanes" have hit during the 13th century.

Direct hits are rare, but we get a ton of backdoor hits that are just as bad.
I just don't care for people thinking that we are protected, whereas our knowledge of this areas past is so limited.


mtraininjax

#36
May 13, 2009, 05:33:07 PM
I find it humorous that a hurricane was named "EASY" in 1950. Since when did boys and girls names begin with EASY? I thought that was saved for the summer of love, 1969?
And, that $115 will save Jacksonville from financial ruin. - Mayor John Peyton

"This is a game-changer. This is what I mean when I say taking Jacksonville to the next level."
-Mayor Alvin Brown on new video boards at Everbank Field

Jason

#37
May 13, 2009, 05:38:29 PM
QuoteDirect hits are rare, but we get a ton of backdoor hits that are just as bad.
I just don't care for people thinking that we are protected, whereas our knowledge of this areas past is so limited.


Agreed.  I wasn't suggesting that we haven't been hit or that we never will, just that its not as common as other coastlines in the subtropics.  I understand that we have dealt with plenty of storms and are likely due to take a big hit in our lifetimes, but there are certainly other areas that deal with much much more.

Thats all.   ;D

gatorback

#38
May 13, 2009, 06:00:11 PM
Remember this headline from last year:

LEON, Nicaragua, May 29 (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Alma, the first cyclone of the Americas hurricane season, slammed into Nicaragua's Pacific coast on Thursday, its winds toppling trees and ripping roofs off flimsy homes.

So, I'm thinking we could see one as early as next week.  Is anybody watching now?
'As a sinner I am truly conscious of having often offended my Creator and I beg him to forgive me, but as a Queen and Sovereign, I am aware of no fault or offence for which I have to render account to anyone here below.'   Mary, queen of Scots to her jailer, Sir Amyas Paulet; October 1586

fatcat

#39
May 14, 2009, 07:59:01 AM
This is such a depressing thread. My not so old roof leaked last year with mere TS. I do not want to think about Hurricane :( but there will still come. BTW, do we have a record when did the first named storm happen each year?

Doctor_K

#40
May 14, 2009, 08:57:43 AM
Agree, fatcat.  My brand new roof leaked 'with one mere TS' as well last year. 

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst: one of the best things we all can do.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge. For while knowledge defines all we currently know and understand, imagination points to all we might yet discover and create."  -- Albert Einstein

gatorback

#41
May 14, 2009, 09:15:26 AM Last Edit: May 14, 2009, 09:18:08 AM by gatorback
Each year gets its own page in the wiki.  But for a list of names, aggregated by year, I'm sure you can find something on the  web.  Just google hurricane season names perhaps?  I don't   think there's a page for 2010 yet :( .
'As a sinner I am truly conscious of having often offended my Creator and I beg him to forgive me, but as a Queen and Sovereign, I am aware of no fault or offence for which I have to render account to anyone here below.'   Mary, queen of Scots to her jailer, Sir Amyas Paulet; October 1586

reednavy

#42
May 14, 2009, 09:39:58 AM
With the possibility of a weak to moderate El Nino event coming later this summer and into the fall, this could curb some action. I'm sticking with June 27th as the earliest we see anything really form. Subtropicals do not coun, even if given a name.
Jacksonville: We're not vertically challenged, just horizontally gifted!

gatorback

#43
May 19, 2009, 09:37:51 AM
An area of showers and thunderstorms is over the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba, in association with a trough of low pressure. The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models continue to forecast that this disturbance will develop into an extratropical low by Tuesday. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it lifts northwestward over Florida.


And they are sending out the hurricane hunter! Yeah!
'As a sinner I am truly conscious of having often offended my Creator and I beg him to forgive me, but as a Queen and Sovereign, I am aware of no fault or offence for which I have to render account to anyone here below.'   Mary, queen of Scots to her jailer, Sir Amyas Paulet; October 1586

adamh0903

#44
May 19, 2009, 10:23:03 AM
NHC canceled the hurricane recon mission for today because the area of low pressure over the Bahamas is being absorbed by the non-tropical low over Florida. Still should be a wind wet couple of days.
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