Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....

[jaxlongtimer]

$400 million for JTA vs. tens of billions by autonomous market leader Waymo.  How is JTA going to succeed spending a mere pittance of Waymo's investment in time, money and expertise?  It isn't.  All City leaders need to do is read the below to know how futile JTA's efforts are.

Alphabet-owned Waymo in talks to raise $15 billion in funding

Self-driving car company Waymo is in talks to raise $15 billion in funding in the new year.

The robotaxi company plans to raise billions from Alphabet, its parent company, as well as outside investors at a valuation as high as $110 billion, according to a person familiar with the discussions.

The latest funding discussions are indicative of Waymo's status as the leader of the pack in the U.S. robotaxi market. The company has been spending heavily to ramp up its fleet and continue expanding to more regions. Waymo is now either operating its robotaxis, planning to launch service or starting to test its vehicles in 26 markets, in the U.S. and abroad.....

....Waymo currently serves paid rides to the public in the Austin, San Francisco Bay Area, Phoenix, Atlanta and Los Angeles markets.

Earlier this month, CNBC reported that Waymo crossed an estimated 450,000 weekly paid rides, and the company in December said it had served 14 million trips in 2025, putting it on pace to end the year at more than 20 million trips total since launching in 2020.

The company plans to open service next year in Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas, Miami, Nashville, Orlando, San Antonio, San Diego and Washington, D.C. Waymo also announced plans to launch its service in London in 2026, which will mark the company's first overseas service region.

Amazon's Zoox this year began offering free driverless rides to the public around the Las Vegas Strip and certain San Francisco neighborhoods. Tesla  launched a Robotaxi-branded service in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area, but those cars still had human drivers or safety supervisors on board as of mid-December....

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/16/alphabet-owned-waymo-in-talks-to-raise-15-billion-in-funding.html

[Jankelope]

What is genuinely sad is that $400 million through local option gas tax could fully fund emerald trail, and then we could have hundreds of millions leftover for something else.

We could jumpstart "First Coast Commuter Rail" or move on to a Ruby or Sapphire trail...

[CityLife]

It's also sad that Jax isn't able to leverage the gas tax money to incentivize a Waymo (or other serious player in the future) to operate earlier than they normally would have. I'm sure Jax could have been included in the Miami/Orlando Waymo roll out with a few million in incentives.

The real tragedy or potential doomsday scenario is a world where Waymo (or other company) is wildly successful and operating in virtually every major/mid major market in the country, but doesn't come to Jax because of U2C.

Would you rather have Silicon Valley giants like Google pioneering autonomous technology or a transit agency that hasn't even mastered bus service yet?

[Jax_Developer]

It's also sad that Jax isn't able to leverage the gas tax money to incentivize a Waymo (or other serious player in the future) to operate earlier than they normally would have. I'm sure Jax could have been included in the Miami/Orlando Waymo roll out with a few million in incentives.

The real tragedy or potential doomsday scenario is a world where Waymo (or other company) is wildly successful and operating in virtually every major/mid major market in the country, but doesn't come to Jax because of U2C.

As everyone with a triple digit IQ has said for years, would you rather have Silicon Valley giants like Google pioneering autonomous technology, or one of the worst public transit agencies in the country?

It's incredibly sad to see Jacksonville fall victim to the same group of leaders (left & right) year after year.

[Todd_Parker]

The real tragedy or potential doomsday scenario is a world where Waymo (or other company) is wildly successful and operating in virtually every major/mid major market in the country, but doesn't come to Jax because of U2C.

Aren't Waymo and the U2C serving two different customers? Waymo is replacing point-to-point taxi service whereas U2C is trying to replicate what a PCT trolley can do, but with less capacity and (at least) 100x more the cost. There should be room for both in this market.

I wouldn't think U2C would cut into Waymo demand until Phase 3 (Neighborhood extensions) is up and running which is probably a decade away, if ever, at this point?

[jaxlongtimer]

The real tragedy or potential doomsday scenario is a world where Waymo (or other company) is wildly successful and operating in virtually every major/mid major market in the country, but doesn't come to Jax because of U2C.

Aren't Waymo and the U2C serving two different customers? Waymo is replacing point-to-point taxi service whereas U2C is trying to replicate what a PCT trolley can do, but with less capacity and (at least) 100x more the cost. There should be room for both in this market.

I wouldn't think U2C would cut into Waymo demand until Phase 3 (Neighborhood extensions) is up and running which is probably a decade away, if ever, at this point?

I would think you could install Waymo software/technology on a NAVI or Holon type vehicle and be good to go for a lot less than $400+++ million (invested in unproven tech that likely will require a lot more investment down the road).  I believe similar efforts are already underway elsewhere.  I am figuring that the tech likely doesn't care if the vehicle holds one person or a dozen.

The other issue here is JTA is supposed to be pursuing MASS transit and U2C hardly qualifies as such.  Just not going to move many people if it were to ever work, and, if it did, likely at a ridiculously high/out-of-the-market cost per passenger mile.  So many better, cost effective and less risky options to move people.

[marcuscnelson]

JTA announcing that it intends to... quadruple? quintuple? whatever -uple down on the U2C.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2025/12/18/jta-remains-committed-to-pioneering-autonomous-transit/87780304007/

"There's been recent discussions that suggest retreating at this point in terms of the project," Ford told the JTA board during its monthly meeting. "I think to retreat at this stage would be to walk away from the very advancements that cities across the country are now embracing today."

He said innovation "takes courage, resiliency and frankly, it's damn hard."

"But here at the JTA, we handle hard and (handle) harder even better. We don't wait for easy, and this team of industry leaders that I have surrounding me, we handle the hard very well."

Despite... well, everything, JTA leadership seem to feel they can simply circle the wagons and hope things work out for them, and to their credit both the Mayor and City Council President have signed on to that view:

But Mayor Donna Deegan and City Council President Kevin Carrico say autonomous shuttles will fill a need as downtown develops.

They point to Jacksonville landing a Holon plant that will build shuttles specifically for carrying passengers, replacing the Ford E-Transit cargo vans that JTA retrofitted to start NAVI.

"This truly is Jacksonville leading on the wave of the future," Deegan said. "This will be how people get around."

"You can't have a world-class city without world-class public transportation and entertainment venues and fun thing for people to do, and this kind of ties it all together," Carrico said.

[CityLife]

The real tragedy or potential doomsday scenario is a world where Waymo (or other company) is wildly successful and operating in virtually every major/mid major market in the country, but doesn't come to Jax because of U2C.

Aren't Waymo and the U2C serving two different customers? Waymo is replacing point-to-point taxi service whereas U2C is trying to replicate what a PCT trolley can do, but with less capacity and (at least) 100x more the cost. There should be room for both in this market.

I wouldn't think U2C would cut into Waymo demand until Phase 3 (Neighborhood extensions) is up and running which is probably a decade away, if ever, at this point?

Fair question. I started writing a complex response and just don't have the mental bandwidth to finish it off today, so here is ChatGpt's summary of it:

"In its current form, Waymo is operating and refining robo-taxis—but that doesn't define its long-term ceiling. No one outside the company really knows what their R&D pipeline looks like. What we do know is that they have a substantial technical lead in the autonomous space and orders of magnitude more real-world miles than any public agency or startup.

If Waymo—or another top-tier autonomous operator—decides to deploy fixed-route or semi-fixed shuttle service, it's hard to argue that JTA would be better positioned to execute that successfully. This isn't a knock on public transit; it's a question of comparative advantage. Would you rather rely on technology developed by a global leader in autonomy, or by a local agency attempting to assemble and maintain a bespoke system? It's the difference between relying on military technology from the U.S. versus Belarus.

The bigger concern is technological lock-in. What happens if Waymo proves out fixed-route autonomous shuttles in other cities using different vehicles, sensors, and operating models than what JTA has chosen? What happens if Jacksonville has already sunk tens of millions into a system that isn't compatible, scalable, or attractive to outside operators?

That's where projects like the $40 million "Autonomous Innovation Center" become risky. Jacksonville isn't just piloting autonomy—it's making a large, directional bet on a specific vendor stack. JTA and COJ are effectively anchoring their long-term transit strategy to Holon and a narrow vision of how autonomy should work, at a time when the industry is still rapidly evolving.

If that bet is wrong—or simply outdated in five to ten years—the cost isn't just financial. It's the opportunity cost of being passed over by more capable, more scalable autonomous networks that choose to deploy elsewhere because Jacksonville is no longer an easy or neutral market to enter."

[jaxlongtimer]

The real tragedy or potential doomsday scenario is a world where Waymo (or other company) is wildly successful and operating in virtually every major/mid major market in the country, but doesn't come to Jax because of U2C.

Aren't Waymo and the U2C serving two different customers? Waymo is replacing point-to-point taxi service whereas U2C is trying to replicate what a PCT trolley can do, but with less capacity and (at least) 100x more the cost. There should be room for both in this market.

I wouldn't think U2C would cut into Waymo demand until Phase 3 (Neighborhood extensions) is up and running which is probably a decade away, if ever, at this point?

I would think you could install Waymo software/technology on a NAVI or Holon type vehicle and be good to go for a lot less than $400+++ million (invested in unproven tech that likely will require a lot more investment down the road).  I believe similar efforts are already underway elsewhere.  I am figuring that the tech likely doesn't care if the vehicle holds one person or a dozen.

The other issue here is JTA is supposed to be pursuing MASS transit and U2C hardly qualifies as such.  Just not going to move many people if it were to ever work, and, if it did, likely at a ridiculously high/out-of-the-market cost per passenger mile.  So many better, cost effective and less risky options to move people.

UPDATE:  A quick search found the below two articles related to autonomous mass transit vehicles.  I am sure a longer search might find a few more.  JTA is clearly not unique in what they are shooting for.

First, this 15 seat autonomous vehicle in the UK.  Along with a quote in the accompanying article with a drivers' trade union take on it   .

....UK TRIES AUTONOMOUS BUS (AGAIN): Some city officials in Cambridge, England think buses can drive themselves so they've launched a 15-seater driverless bus service through next spring, the BBC reports. Referring to certain public transit services that aren't "commercially viable," the head of innovation for the project declared, "We think there is a use case for buses without drivers in those areas." He also bragged that cutting labor costs is a significant factor for expanding the use of autonomous buses, arguing "the cost of the driver is significant."

The project developers believe that bus automation would change jobs from traditional operators to "more of a customer service" function and bragged that it will be safer than services operated by humans because an automated bus "doesn't get bored, it can react very quickly, it doesn't get distracted, so the aim is ultimately that this will be safer than human drivers."

"Yet again another city is being fooled into believing that public transit can be safer without human drivers on-board the bus," said TWU Administrative Vice President Curtis Tate. "We know from real-life experience that transit operators do much more than operate the bus – they are first-responders dealing with safety and health emergencies and sudden road and weather hazards without warning. A robotic bus cannot respond to those events and passengers need much more than fancy sensors and video images."

A reminder: late last year the world's first autonomous bus on public roads was axed in Scotland....

https://www.twu.org/twu-tech-newsletter-waymo-expands-to-nyc-philly/

Next up, a press release about an autonomous bus tryout in Austin, TX, limited to moves within a bus depot, for now.  Budget: A paltry $1.26 million.:

Automated Battery Electric Bus Deployed in Landmark Demonstration



AUSTIN, TEXAS — After many years of planning and investment, the Capital Metropolitan Transportation Authority (CapMetro) Yard Automation Research and Deployment (YARD) Program deployed the first SAE Level 4, automated 40-foot electric bus (BEB) in North America.

The retrofitted bus was challenged to maneuver through an active transit depot, brake for unexpected obstacles, and with the precision of a few centimeters, park underneath a charging pantograph dispenser.

The momentous demonstration was held at CapMetro's North Ops and Maintenance Facility in Austin. The deployment was led by WSP in the U.S., one of the world's leading professional services firms.

"During the demonstration, the bus encountered pedestrians, vehicles and large objects, and instantly reacted appropriately to changing situations to complete its assigned route," said Severin Skolrud, vice president, critical and emerging technology, national transit and rail at WSP in the U.S. "The most complex maneuver sent the autonomous bus to drive and park underneath an overhead pantograph charging dispenser – within just five to seven centimeters of accuracy – and initiate a charging session, all without anyone behind the steering wheel."

Bus yard automation has the potential to significantly reduce costs for zero-emission fleets, significantly increase existing yard capacity and boost safety for drivers, mechanics and others who work in active bus depots.

WSP oversees all project aspects and supports CapMetro as its agency representative for all project stakeholders involved with vehicle infrastructure testing, safety certification and planning. CapMetro's project partners include Perrone Robotics, Inc., Texas A&M Transportation Institute, and Clever Devices. Perrone Robotics transformed a CapMetro battery electric bus into a fully autonomous vehicle using its TONY (TO Navigate You) retrofit kit, delivering SAE Level 4 autonomy and advanced yard-optimized autonomous operations software. This cutting-edge deployment enabled WSP to evaluate real-world operational benefits, showcasing the future of intelligent, driverless transit.

This $1.26 million project is partly funded by a nearly $950,000 award provided through the Federal Transit Administration's (FTA's) Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) for Transit Buses Demonstration and Automated Transit Bus Maintenance and Yard Operations Demonstration Program.

Early testing has revealed that this technology can increase yard capacity by 80-to-90 percent, creating valuable space to build additional facilities or sell land parcels for additional revenue. Furthermore, the system has the ability to reduce trip time by an average of six-to-eight minutes due to operators not having to walk in the yard, find their vehicle and drive to the security gate after performing their pre-trip inspections, creating further savings for agency operations.

"The demonstration took an idea that's never been attempted before and turned it into reality," Skolrud said. "It's important to focus on the small wins that push the industry and manufacturers to take potential safety and operational benefits seriously and provide ADAS and ADS options to transit customers."

A potential Phase Two for the program will include three battery electric buses, deeper integration with the vehicle platform, a multi-year deployment, and the development of a new automated dispatch software that can remotely start and pre-condition each of the buses, then direct them on missions such as to safely drive to a designated area closer to the facility for the operator to perform their pre-trip inspection.

https://www.wsp.com/en-us/news/2025/capmetro-yard-demonstration

[Jax_Developer]

Todd, the ultimate issue is exactly what Jaxlongtimer is showing. You can purchase a new 60+ capacity city bus for under $1M & then fit it out with the AV kit. The Navi shuttles (and soon to be Holon's) will cost 1/2 the price but will have 1/6 of the capacity.

So even if we ignore all the technical issues JTA is having (because they aren't a massive tech company) the fundamental idea of this being public transit isn't true. Moreover, we don't need to reinvent the city bus... there are different sizes & capabilities there for a reason. JTA likes to argue that the Navi route has it's own ROW so that makes it different.. but the entire plan for the Navi is to have 98% of the coverage area being integrated with normal traffic.

Everything about the program is riddled in contradiction.

[Lunican]

Interesting that Waymo has double the annual ridership of all of JTA now.

[fsu813]

JTA is holding six public listening sessions in January. So speak now or forever hold your peace.

"The Jacksonville Transportation Authority (JTA) is hosting a series of community meetings to seek input and share its latest initiatives to create a stronger, better-connected Northeast Florida."

January 6, 7, 8, 13, 14, 15.

https://www.jtafla.com/about-us/public-hearings-and-notices/jta-community-meetings-notice-january-2026/

[Charles Hunter]

For the link-averse (and because I had come here to post the same)

The Jacksonville Transportation Authority (JTA) is hosting a series of community meetings to seek input and share its latest initiatives to create a stronger, better-connected Northeast Florida.

At each meeting, community members will have the opportunity to learn about the JTA's services such as the fixed-route bus and First Coast Flyer, paratransit offerings, programs like My Ride 2 School and more. Team members will also share the improvements and efficiencies implemented over the last year that enhance service for the Jacksonville and Northeast Florida community.

At the JTA, our riders are the center of what we do. We work to move people, connect neighborhoods and deliver reliable, clean and courteous service. Thanks to our riders and your partnership at community meetings like this, we're better together.
Meeting Details

    Tuesday, January 6, 2026              Lunchtime and Evening
    11:00 am – 1:00 pm
    5:00 pm – 7:00 pm
    FSCJ Downtown
    Large Auditorium
    501 W. State Street, #A1068
    Jacksonville, FL 32202

    Wednesday, January 7, 2026                   Morning only
    9:00 am – 11:00 am
    William Gulliford Community Center
    4870 Ocean Street
    Jacksonville, FL 32233 - (Mayport)

    Thursday, January 8, 2026                  Evening only
    5:00 pm – 8:00 pm
    Pablo Creek Public Library
    Community Room A
    13295 Beach Boulevard
    Jacksonville, FL 32246

    Tuesday, January 13, 2026                Morning and evening
    10:00 am – 12:00 pm
    5:30 pm – 7:30 pm
    Legends Center
    Double Classroom
    5130 Soutel Drive
    Jacksonville, FL 32208

    Wednesday, January 14, 2026                Late Afternoon
    3:00 pm – 5:30 pm
    Regency Square Public Library
    Community Room B
    9900 Regency Square Boulevard
    Jacksonville, FL 32225

    Thursday, January 15, 2026           Early Afternoon
    1:00 pm–3:00 pm
    Regency Square Public Library
    Community Room B
    9900 Regency Square Boulevard
    Jacksonville, FL 32225

Curious, there are two dates in Arlington, and none in the west or southwest parts of the county.
The times of the meetings are curious, too.
Downtown has a good schedule with both lunchtime and evening sessions.
Mayport is only in the morning.
Pablo Creek / Tamaya is evening-only
Legends Center (NW Jax) is another morning-only site
Regency, over 2 days, ihas early afternoon and late afternoon sessions.

Only two of the four locations accommodate people who work typical daytime hours - Downtown and Pablo Creek

[jaxlongtimer]

^ Sadly, these public meetings are "lipstick on a pig."  JTA is likely just checking the box, not really going to act on inputs received.  This is like most government "public meetings."  If they listened to the public, priorities and operations would be much different. Right now, they are not listening to the City Council or transportation experts outside of JTA so why should they listen to "Joe and Jane" public?

I would be interested to know if JTA board members will be present at these meetings.  They are the ones who need to hear unfiltered feedback from JTA's constituents as a check on what the staff feeds them. Doubt they will be there but pleasantly surprise me.

[marcuscnelson]

Looking at JTA's holiday hours this year, the Skyway and NAVI are sharing service hours:

• December 24 – 10:00 a.m. – 3:00 p.m.
• December 25 – Closed
• December 26 – 10:00 a.m. – 3:00 p.m.
• December 31 – 10:00 a.m. – 3:00 p.m.
• January 1 – Closed
• January 2 – 10:00 a.m. – 3:00 p.m.