Five-year Predictions (2025 edition)

[jaxlongtimer]

^ In the same First Coast Connect interview today, Carrico confirmed the Hard Rock Hotel folks are the ones looking at the Berkman II site.

Was sad to hear him also defend his hardline ways with those who disagree with him, whether the Mayor or fellow City Council members.  I didn't detect any interest on his part to be conciliatory, be the bigger guy, mend fences, be collaborative, reach across the aisle, or tolerate those that get in front of his vision for the City but, rather, to be vengeful and petty.  Hard to believe he works with the Boys and Girls Clubs.  I hope those kids are not looking to him as an example of good leadership.  He sounded more like he thought he was the Mayor vs. the real Mayor.

When asked about the contrast between his vision of the City Council having the power vs. the City's executive branch vs. his party's view on the national level that the executive branch should have the power, he ducked the answer.  I thought this was hypocritical.

Former Mayor Lenny Curry also called in to sing Carrico's praises and Carrico went out of his way to say he converses with Curry at least weekly.  A mutual admiration and interesting insight into the Curry political machine that appears to still be alive and kicking.  Wonder how many other Council puppets Curry is pulling the strings on and whether Curry might make make another run for mayor again one day.

Jax has a long way to go to get elected officials that want to put childish partisanship aside and truly serve all citizens of this city, and not just for today, but for the future.

[jaxlongtimer]

Regency Center and its 260 employees moving to 7 Pines from the Wells Fargo tower.  Another loss for Downtown.  Add to Citizens and HD Supply, just in the last few months.

Regency Centers moving HQ from Downtown to The Village at Seven Pines
The Jacksonville-based developer's CEO said the move embeds "our people within best-in-class, flagship developments." Publix will anchor it.

....Industry market reports show that office vacancy on the Downtown Northbank, the location of 1 Independent Square, was about 26% as of June 30, 2025....

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2025/aug/08/regency-centers-moving-hq-from-downtown-to-the-village-at-seven-pines/

[urban_]

Regency Center and its 260 employees moving to 7 Pines from the Wells Fargo tower.  Another loss for Downtown.  Add to Citizens and HD Supply, just in the last few months.

Sad, but this may be a special case as Regency owns the property, right? They're leasing it to themselves? If that's true, they're certainly saving some money, and it's not a downtown-specific thing, they're just moving somewhere with free rent. I may be misunderstanding what Regency does though lol

[jaxlongtimer]

^ My point is regardless of the reason, it is another loss for Downtown. 

Reading between the lines, it appears to me that the convenience for their employees working in the burbs may be at play here, even if they don't explicitly admit it.  Same as all the other departures.

Regency owns hundreds of shopping centers, so why is this one any more special than others?  Do you really think their employees are going to talk to Publix via this single store or deal with the Publix real estate department at corporate HQ's in Lakeland regarding leasing/developing dozens of sites for Publix? 

I am sure many of their operations people travel continuously nationwide to their properties so what is there to gain by being adjacent to this one?  Regency also developed the Publix in San Marco so why didn't they consider the Southbank or San Marco area?

Let's face it , 7 Pines is centrally located to the Southside and Beaches and adjacent to JTB and I-295 Beltway.  Hard to beat that spot for appealing to a white collar workforce.  Thus, my suspicions.

I am starting to come around to the idea that high rises are more for apartments, condos, hotels and professional service/boutique offices.  Larger corporate work forces on expensive multiple small-plate floors with added expensive parking arrangements in a world of corporate cost cutting and workforce shortages seems to be less appealing today than ever.  May be a few exceptions (e.g. CSX & Vystar, who have in common owning their buildings, not leasing, and with adequate parking to match), but no longer the rule.

[thelakelander]

^Its another loss for downtown unfortunately.

Regency owns hundreds of shopping centers, so why is this one any more special than others?  Do you really think their employees are going to talk to Publix via this single store or deal with the Publix real estate department at corporate HQ's in Lakeland regarding leasing/developing dozens of sites for Publix?

Speaking of Publix, that company is quite the opposite when it comes to investing in Lakeland's downtown revitalization efforts. Although their corporate headquarters have always been in the burbs, they've intentionally moved some corporate functions to vacant downtown buildings and invested significantly in downtown's public spaces. Downtown Jax could really benefit from major local companies taking a Publix-like approach in being wanting to be a part of the downtown revitalization effort as opposed to a negative.

[thelakelander]

I am sure many of their operations people travel continuously nationwide to their properties so what is there to gain by being adjacent to this one?  Regency also developed the Publix in San Marco so why didn't they consider the Southbank or San Marco area?

They also have a retail center in Brooklyn. If they really wanted to be downtown, they could make it happen.

Let's face it , 7 Pines is centrally located to the Southside and Beaches and adjacent to JTB and I-295 Beltway.  Hard to beat that spot for appealing to a white collar workforce.  Thus, my suspicions.

Although the home prices are crazy for the product being built, when it comes to new master planned suburban developments, 7 Pines is about the best as they come in metropolitan Jacksonville. From a design perspective, much better than Nocatee, Oakleaf, Wildlight, Palencia, Bartram Park, etc.

[Ken_FSU]

Regency is what it is, and is the result of too many false promises made over the years with too little tangible progress when the time came to reevaluate headquarters location. Lot of progress being made now, and lot of important building blocks being put in place. But, we might continue to see attrition in the interim while we wait for that to pay off. Unfortunate, but I think we're heading in a really good direction.

[Captain Zissou]

Regency looked at other spaces available downtown, but nothing met their criteria.  I don't blame them for wanting to get out of the Wells Fargo Building.  From the porte-cochere almost collapsing from water damage and neglect to the bland half finished lobby, to the sparse retail and no amenities on the first floor.  The River Club up top is nice, but doesn't make that building worth it.  Plus, most of the dining around there has closed or been bulldozed by COJ in 2019.  If their lease ended in 3 years it might be a different story with everything proposed for the area, but it's understandable that they'd be skeptical at the moment.  That and most executives and other employees live toward the beach or in SJC.

[jaxlongtimer]

^ The rebuilt lobby in the Wells Fargo tower is an abomination.  It is cold, lifeless and serves no function other than as a sterile elevator lobby.  Why they took out the wonderful and trademarked greenery/plantings/trees/water features of the original lobby is beyond me. I liked the wood paneling they used to have but I think all that may remain is in the elevators.  Guess it was too expensive to redo those or they just ran out of money.  I also recall the escalators to the mezzanine being "out of order" for a long time - not sure if they are back in service or still there.

To add, I don't understand the lack of any retail or other active areas around the lobby.  At one time, the building had a large cafeteria opening into the lobby, a bank branch, jeweler, ice cream shop, etc. and an upscale restaurant (Tree Top in deference to the lobby trees) on the mezzanine.  Other than the River Club, I don't recall seeing even a small sandwich shop there today.  There are much smaller buildings around with more amenities, character and flair. 

This building may need a new owner to better manage it.  I wonder what the vacancy rate is today compared to other Downtown towers?  It seems I have read about others moving out of the building and I know Wells Fargo has cut their space by 50% or more plus closed their lobby branch (hence, the removal of their name).

If they build a new tower on the Landing site that blocks part of the river view from this building, I imagine it may be even harder to lease out the building.

Sad to see a skyline icon falling backwards.

[landfall]

I feel corporations are the last group we should be focusing on for Downtown revitalization. They are the most vulnerable to shifting out when it comes to leases ending, buyouts, mergers etc. Residential, hospitality, entertainment, civic institutions, transportation should be the focus IMO. They are also the worst by a country mile for caving into the demands of panicky suburban employees.

That said, there is a very concerning trend in Jax of most major employers following like sheep to soulless convenient office parks in the Southside. However the key to to me is creating a unique walkable environment that sprawl crap cannot provide.

[MakeDTjaxGre@tAgain]

Any inclination on what's going in the fairgrounds once they move? I'm suspecting an entertainment district with condos, retail, and restaurant/ bar. But I'd be open to others thoughts/ speculations or if there's any factual information to share - seeing that That Bar has been re-announced. Didn't want to take away from that post.

[Tacachale]

I've been remiss! Here's my take:

Sports District/Northbank East
Stadium of the Future: Completed
Daily's Place Flex Field Redesign: Completed
Four Seasons: Completed
Metropolitan Park Revamp: Completed
Sports & Entertainment Complex: Under Construction
Jags Sports Medicine Facility: Under Construction
MOSH 2.0: Under Construction
Shipyards West Park: Under Construction
Shipyards West CRA Private Development: Not Started
Jail Relocation: Not Started
Convention Center: Not Started
Ford on Bay: Under Construction
Berkman 2: Not Started

CBD/LaVilla
Riverfront Plaza Phase 2: Under Construction
Times-Union Center Musical Heritage Park: Completed
Riverfront Plaza Mixed-Use Tower: Under Construction
Bread & Board Repurpose: Completed
James Weldon Johnson Park Redesign: Design Completed, Perhaps Under Construction
Snyder Memorial Church Repurpose: Sold, perhaps Under Construction
Laura Street Trio: Under Construction
Main Street Library Retail Bay reopening: In the conversation
UF Graduate Campus: Parts Under Construction; the rest moving forward; Convention Center still operating or recently closed
Jacksonville Terminal/Prime Osborne Retail/Train Station conversion: Planning be moving forward
Brightline Jax leg: Not Started, but in the conversation
Pearl Street District: Completed
Pearl Square Grocery store: Under Construction
Old JEA Headquarters Residential Conversion: Sold, perhaps Under Construction
Jones Bros Furniture: Completed
Ambassador Hotel: Under Construction
Independent Life Building: Under Construction
Old Greyhound Station/Illegal Surface Parking lot to 250-story skyscraper conversion: Lol nothing will be happening here by 2030.

Southbank
Rivers Edge Private Development: Some Construction and certain elements complete
Related Southbank Tower: Under Construction
Friendship Park Restaurant: Completed
Duval County Public Schools Relocation: No Comment

Misc
Emerald Trail: Under Construction; Segments Consistently Finished
U2C: No Comment
Commuter Rail/Fixed Transit pilot: Not Started

Bonus Predictions:
Downtown Office Occupancy Rate (currently 74%): 70-80% due to ongoing fluctuations
Downtown Residential Occupancy Rate (currently 96%): 96% or better
Downtown Retail Occupancy Rate (currently 70%, though I'm not sure how this accounts for vacant structures): Current retail frontage will increasingly fill in, with more frontage added through other projects.

[Charles Hunter]

Being a long-time Arlington resident, I can't see the name of that Southbank development at the old JEA site, and not think of an apartment complex just north of JU - Rivers Edge (now the Tree House Apartments).

And now, back to your regularly scheduled discussion