WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)

[Florida Power And Light]

What if it was " decided" that Jax population expansion promotion and accommodation was no longer efficacious....Then What?
Citizen's Comp Plan, citizens role. Yank a former Thousand Friends Of Florida person that left 1,000 for a county planner position back on scene. Elevate review of Duval,Jacksonville adjacent county " Planning " and above all.... " Consultants "  staff persons and role. A great volume of " Non News".
A formal education for the Citizens about current, future land use ( and Zone) directives, citizens legal role in deciding  on how the place feels and functions.
Finally.... growth is not " inevitable", City Hall can be " Fought".
A decided shift, awareness and empowered propensity to act.
Duval commands state public conservation land buy program,a focus on Duval County Conservation and Public lands initiative that threatens ( deservingly) South Florida Everglades " Restoration" stack of cards.
We eventually name a big chunk of Duval public lands after two individual " Carlucci ". A park bench named in honor of " Preservation Jacksonville" figure.
Ha!!!.... that's about the future, what we are experiencing now is " Vested". Done. Committed.
Good lesson.
We get the landscape and " Quality of Life " we deserve. And most Citizens with " Standing" never stand up.

[heights unknown]

I know this is not important, and is old news, but just posting for all of our information. At least Jax has an astute cauldron of population through consolidation and is, though by a slender thread, in the top 10 in the U.S.; however, I went on "CO-PILOT," an online search tool/engine commensurate/similar (almost) to AI, and I asked the question: "WHAT WOULD JAX' POPULATION BE IN 2020 HAD IT NOT CONSOLIDATED AND KEPT ITS OLD CITY LIMIT BOUNDARIES?" And this is the answer I got: If Jacksonville, Florida had not consolidated with Duval County in 1968 and retained its pre-consolidation city limits, the 2020 population would have been approximately 110,365 residents.

This area—often referred to as the Urban Core—covers about 30 square miles and includes neighborhoods that were part of the original city boundaries before consolidation. For context:

In 1950, the old city had 204,275 residents

By 2010, that number had dropped to 104,047

The 2020 Census showed a modest rebound to 110,365, marking the first growth in decades

The full consolidated city of Jacksonville had 949,611 residents in 2020, so the old city boundaries would represent just over 11.6% of the current population.

Certainly not "Detroitism" or like the population loss of Detroit, but still significant; and as I said, it could be that Jax would have annexed more areas around the old City Limit had it not consolidated. If consolidation had not happened, and Jax did not annex any more areas outside of the old City Limit boundaries, Jax would be the 3rd largest City in North Florida, behind Tallahassee and Gainesville, and, Jax would be around the 25th largest City, by population in the State of Florida just behind Miami Gardens, FL. You don't have to reply; and ENJOY!

[jaxlongtimer]

^ Good and interesting points, heights.  Don't need to go far for an explanation... Just compare the hundreds of billions spent on infrastructure outside the old City limits and the neglectful spending within.  At consolidation, we had no beltway, no Buckman bridge, no 9B, hardly any 4 and 6 lane State or City roads, no JTB or Wonderwood, no fancy interstate interchanges, no modern schools (vs. aging ones in the urban core), buses that hugged the urban core vs. going to the far corners of the county, no expansive utility networks and so on...

Importantly, we didn't have a City Council that mostly represented the burbs vs. the prior all-in urban core Council.  This has led to a major draining off of the tax revenue to the perimeter areas vs. Downtown, often under the influence of campaign donating developers and major land owners.  This has been compounded by the lack of a stable/consistent vision/plan for Downtown that no developer could rely on to work around.  Lastly, the only major infrastructure investment in the Northcore (the real Downtown), has been the boondoggle Skyway, giving a further blackeye to why more money should be spent Downtown.  The U2C is not going to help matters much.

Most of the latest upswing in population is likely in Brooklyn and San Marco, in spite of the issues above, and mainly due to market forces overcoming political ones.

[heights unknown]

^ Good and interesting points, heights.  Don't need to go far for an explanation... Just compare the hundreds of billions spent on infrastructure outside the old City limits and the neglectful spending within.  At consolidation, we had no beltway, no Buckman bridge, no 9B, hardly any 4 and 6 lane State or City roads, no JTB or Wonderwood, no fancy interstate interchanges, no modern schools (vs. aging ones in the urban core), buses that hugged the urban core vs. going to the far corners of the county, no expansive utility networks and so on...

Importantly, we didn't have a City Council that mostly represented the burbs vs. the prior all-in urban core Council.  This has led to a major draining off of the tax revenue to the perimeter areas vs. Downtown, often under the influence of campaign donating developers and major land owners.  This has been compounded by the lack of a stable/consistent vision/plan for Downtown that no developer could rely on to work around.  Lastly, the only major infrastructure investment in the Northcore (the real Downtown), has been the boondoggle Skyway, giving a further blackeye to why more money should be spent Downtown.  The U2C is not going to help matters much.

Most of the latest upswing in population is likely in Brooklyn and San Marco, in spite of the issues above, and mainly due to market forces overcoming political ones.

Thanks for expounding on my post, and, I agree. Consolidation has added and/or strengthened us in some areas, but, we still have a long way to go to ensure it (consolidation) benefits ALL of Jacksonville and not just certain areas. And we also need to ensure, or find a way for consolidation to work smoothly for the benefit of all of Jacksonville.

[jaxlongtimer]

To expound a little more  , UNF chartered in 1969 and opened in 1972, again, in the burbs and after Consolidation.  Another missed opportunity for the old City limits. 

FSCJ, founded in 1965, does have a Downtown campus but it is outnumbered by 4 major sites in the burbs plus smaller satellites.  Maybe more could have been done to focus more programs Downtown over the years vs. spreading them out.

I did overlook that the Dames Point bridge was another project built after Consolidation.

The only thing Downtown core has consistently held onto are the City, State and Federal government related offices/courthouses/functions and, more really off to the side, the sports complexes.  Even some government functions have diminished... FBI in burbs, Federal Reserve down to almost nothing, IRS being cut back, Citizens moving to the burbs....  Doesn't have the Fair after this year (moving out with City support, that would not be happening if no consolidation) and most of JSO is moving outward.

I am hard pressed to think of any business of any kind that has been Downtown from the beginning of Consolidation other than CSX (ironically, now a leading candidate to be acquired per current rumors) and a few law or other professional firms.  Other than Vystar and Everbank, what major companies that have come to Downtown remain there?  When Jax and the Chamber recruit out of town companies, how hard to they sell Downtown's Northcore?  Seems they are happy to settle for anywhere in Duval County, and, no less, with City incentives.  UF is the first modern success, it appears (I can recall a few short-lasting efforts, Brockway Glass and Rayonier).

I think the foreseeable future for the old City limits is residential and associated retail.  Maybe one day, businesses will be attracted to those persons living Downtown who might provide a convenient and desirable workforce, but I think that is mostly a long way down the road.

Some of the trends away from the old City limits are clearly due to a changing world which may confuse the picture.  Suburbs everywhere have blossomed and many companies have moved there to be closer to their workforces and where their executives prefer to live.  This is why mass transit is so critical to the urban core, making it more readily accessible to people everywhere.  Instead, we are getting U2C down Bay Street for $400 million. Thanks, City supported JTA, who, by the way, has done far more for the burbs than the urban core.

[thelakelander]

Certainly not "Detroitism" or like the population loss of Detroit, but still significant; and as I said, it could be that Jax would have annexed more areas around the old City Limit had it not consolidated. If consolidation had not happened, and Jax did not annex any more areas outside of the old City Limit boundaries, Jax would be the 3rd largest City in North Florida, behind Tallahassee and Gainesville, and, Jax would be around the 25th largest City, by population in the State of Florida just behind Miami Gardens, FL. You don't have to reply; and ENJOY!

Assuming Tallahassee and Gainesville also did not annex miles of Leon and Alachua County since 1970, Jax would still end up being the largest in North Florida. The other two would basically be like Pensacola, which has not annexed as much over the years....but still has a larger MSA population than Tally and Gainesville.

[heights unknown]

To expound a little more  , UNF chartered in 1969 and opened in 1972, again, in the burbs and after Consolidation.  Another missed opportunity for the old City limits. 

FSCJ, founded in 1965, does have a Downtown campus but it is outnumbered by 4 major sites in the burbs plus smaller satellites.  Maybe more could have been done to focus more programs Downtown over the years vs. spreading them out.

I did overlook that the Dames Point bridge was another project built after Consolidation.

The only thing Downtown core has consistently held onto are the City, State and Federal government related offices/courthouses/functions and, more really off to the side, the sports complexes.  Even some government functions have diminished... FBI in burbs, Federal Reserve down to almost nothing, IRS being cut back, Citizens moving to the burbs....  Doesn't have the Fair after this year (moving out with City support, that would not be happening if no consolidation) and most of JSO is moving outward.

I am hard pressed to think of any business of any kind that has been Downtown from the beginning of Consolidation other than CSX (ironically, now a leading candidate to be acquired per current rumors) and a few law or other professional firms.  Other than Vystar and Everbank, what major companies that have come to Downtown remain there?  When Jax and the Chamber recruit out of town companies, how hard to they sell Downtown's Northcore?  Seems they are happy to settle for anywhere in Duval County, and, no less, with City incentives.  UF is the first modern success, it appears (I can recall a few short-lasting efforts, Brockway Glass and Rayonier).

I think the foreseeable future for the old City limits is residential and associated retail.  Maybe one day, businesses will be attracted to those persons living Downtown who might provide a convenient and desirable workforce, but I think that is mostly a long way down the road.

Some of the trends away from the old City limits are clearly due to a changing world which may confuse the picture.  Suburbs everywhere have blossomed and many companies have moved there to be closer to their workforces and where their executives prefer to live.  This is why mass transit is so critical to the urban core, making it more readily accessible to people everywhere.  Instead, we are getting U2C down Bay Street for $400 million. Thanks, City supported JTA, who, by the way, has done far more for the burbs than the urban core.

Well put, and well said. And I agree. The way I look at it, right now downtown Jax is larger than Live Oak and slightly smaller than Lake City in population. That being said, you would think that our leaders (and others) would be focusing on supporting the uptick in population of downtown...i.e., by attracting more businesses like convenience stores, gas stations, more restaurants, fast food outlets, clothing stores, etc. We are making strides and improving in this area but more is sorely needed IMO. IMO this has to happen to support the uptick/increase of downtown population...no matter northbank, southbank, lavilla, brooklyn, etc. It's gotta happen and it all should be inevitable to happen. Office Towers, Residential Towers, etc. probably won't happen enmasse (right away), but I am pulling hard not only for all of Jacksonville (in which there are major strides) but especially downtown and the urban core.

[heights unknown]

Certainly not "Detroitism" or like the population loss of Detroit, but still significant; and as I said, it could be that Jax would have annexed more areas around the old City Limit had it not consolidated. If consolidation had not happened, and Jax did not annex any more areas outside of the old City Limit boundaries, Jax would be the 3rd largest City in North Florida, behind Tallahassee and Gainesville, and, Jax would be around the 25th largest City, by population in the State of Florida just behind Miami Gardens, FL. You don't have to reply; and ENJOY!

Assuming Tallahassee and Gainesville also did not annex miles of Leon and Alachua County since 1970, Jax would still end up being the largest in North Florida. The other two would basically be like Pensacola, which has not annexed as much over the years....but still has a larger MSA population than Tally and Gainesville.

Gotcha; thanks Lake. I did not know that about Pensacola. Never been there, but I am aware of the large MSA disproportionate to the actual City Population. It also coulda, woulda been possible also that Tally and Gainesville would have annexed and Jax would not have (don't think this would have been the case). It would have been weird if Jax had kept its old city limits with little to no annexation and still contained a modest skyline with 110k plus population. Oh well, glad that we did consolidate.

[Charles Hunter]

A potentially interesting mental exercise (and if this was done up-thread, my apologies, not looking back over 4 pages)

If Consolidation of the city and county had not occurred in 1968, what areas would have been annexed into Jacksonville? For bonus points, in what order? And for the statistically gifted, the effect on population and other stuff.

My unscientific - but aesthetically pleasing - stab:
West of the River, push out to Edgewood / Cassat Avenue - a 'clean' infrastructure boundary. It gets a little messy in Lake Shore, perhaps it cold turn west (from Cassat) on San Juan to Cedar Creek, then east along Cedar Creek and the Ortega River to Roosevelt Blvd, where it would join the existing city limit on the Ortega peninsula.
East of the River, expand to University Boulevard, where it (almost) reaches the river near San Jose Boulevard. Follow University north to either
the Arlington River or the Arlington Expressway, then west into the St. Johns River.

Those would probably be in that order, possibly in increments - north/south of I-10; west/east of I-95.

The next big annexation would be Arlington, bound by Arlington Expressway on the south, the River on the north; the eastern boundary could be (initially) Townsend Boulevard, then as development moved east, to Mill Creek - or, if the Southside Connector (or a paved Gilmore Heights Road) exists, to there.

I will let the number nerds figure out population and other effects.

[heights unknown]

@ Charles Hunter: I could get population statistics for those areas (would only be estimates of course) via zip code; but that will take too much time. However, guestimating, I would say adding those areas that you pointed out only through annexation, we're probably looking at a population a little shy of 300 thousand, more or less. I could be wrong. Duval County in and of itself now has over a million souls. So, if annexation instead of consolidation had occurred, you're probably looking at numbers close to 400k.

[thelakelander]

Certainly not "Detroitism" or like the population loss of Detroit, but still significant; and as I said, it could be that Jax would have annexed more areas around the old City Limit had it not consolidated. If consolidation had not happened, and Jax did not annex any more areas outside of the old City Limit boundaries, Jax would be the 3rd largest City in North Florida, behind Tallahassee and Gainesville, and, Jax would be around the 25th largest City, by population in the State of Florida just behind Miami Gardens, FL. You don't have to reply; and ENJOY!

Assuming Tallahassee and Gainesville also did not annex miles of Leon and Alachua County since 1970, Jax would still end up being the largest in North Florida. The other two would basically be like Pensacola, which has not annexed as much over the years....but still has a larger MSA population than Tally and Gainesville.

Gotcha; thanks Lake. I did not know that about Pensacola. Never been there, but I am aware of the large MSA disproportionate to the actual City Population. It also coulda, woulda been possible also that Tally and Gainesville would have annexed and Jax would not have (don't think this would have been the case). It would have been weird if Jax had kept its old city limits with little to no annexation and still contained a modest skyline with 110k plus population. Oh well, glad that we did consolidate.

Reminds me of the City of Fort Lauderdale. Its boxed in by municipalities on all sides. 183,000 people now, so smaller than Tallahassee and slightly larger than Gainesville. But a downtown skyline that's twice as large as Jacksonville's now.

[heights unknown]

Certainly not "Detroitism" or like the population loss of Detroit, but still significant; and as I said, it could be that Jax would have annexed more areas around the old City Limit had it not consolidated. If consolidation had not happened, and Jax did not annex any more areas outside of the old City Limit boundaries, Jax would be the 3rd largest City in North Florida, behind Tallahassee and Gainesville, and, Jax would be around the 25th largest City, by population in the State of Florida just behind Miami Gardens, FL. You don't have to reply; and ENJOY!

Assuming Tallahassee and Gainesville also did not annex miles of Leon and Alachua County since 1970, Jax would still end up being the largest in North Florida. The other two would basically be like Pensacola, which has not annexed as much over the years....but still has a larger MSA population than Tally and Gainesville.

Gotcha; thanks Lake. I did not know that about Pensacola. Never been there, but I am aware of the large MSA disproportionate to the actual City Population. It also coulda, woulda been possible also that Tally and Gainesville would have annexed and Jax would not have (don't think this would have been the case). It would have been weird if Jax had kept its old city limits with little to no annexation and still contained a modest skyline with 110k plus population. Oh well, glad that we did consolidate.

Reminds me of the City of Fort Lauderdale. Its boxed in by municipalities on all sides. 183,000 people now, so smaller than Tallahassee and slightly larger than Gainesville. But a downtown skyline that's twice as large as Jacksonville's now.

Yep. Fort Lauderdale's skyline even has Tampa and Orlando beat with more Tall's (residential moreso) coming on the conveyor belt; however, there's nothing for FTL to annex. The towns and cities in Broward seem to want their identity stamped and won't ever budge or bow to consolidation if it ever came up (Broward doesn't really need to go that route). So...the only direction that FTL can go is UP; tall residential scrapers to add more population/people; that's the only way for FTL to go. Jax is so spread out I don't think we'll ever see a real dense concentration of mega scrapers downtown or even surrounding downtown. The market doesn't support them anyway I don't think.

[thelakelander]

^Now, there's nothing for it to annex. It wasn't that way back in 1970. Its very possible if Jax had not consolidated with the county that we'd have a few new municipalities now. For example, I imagine that the Southside would be its own city by now.

So...the only direction that FTL can go is UP; tall residential scrapers to add more population/people; that's the only way for FTL to go. Jax is so spread out I don't think we'll ever see a real dense concentration of mega scrapers downtown or even surrounding downtown. The market doesn't support them anyway I don't think.

I believe Fort Lauderdale goes up because the market there is one of the largest in the country, even though the population within the city limits aren't. Jax and Duval are podunk in comparison market wise. I think our skyline is still appropriate for our market size. Just north of us, Savannah and Charleston are both denser. But those markets are too small to demand serious high rise construction on the outskirts of their historic districts. However, in recent years, they've had some Brooklyn-level style mid-rise mixed-use development on the fringes.

[Jax_Developer]

I would be curious to know what percentage of Jacksonville's GDP is from the Urban Core vs. not, today. Also would be interesting to see that graph overtime. Jax is pretty unique in that it's industry had similarities to the Rust Belt given the manufacturing history. Lots of consolidation of the insurance & banking markets too. I can't imagine both of those have helped the Urban Core's case either.

[heights unknown]

^Now, there's nothing for it to annex. It wasn't that way back in 1970. Its very possible if Jax had not consolidated with the county that we'd have a few new municipalities now. For example, I imagine that the Southside would be its own city by now.

So...the only direction that FTL can go is UP; tall residential scrapers to add more population/people; that's the only way for FTL to go. Jax is so spread out I don't think we'll ever see a real dense concentration of mega scrapers downtown or even surrounding downtown. The market doesn't support them anyway I don't think.

I believe Fort Lauderdale goes up because the market there is one of the largest in the country, even though the population within the city limits aren't. Jax and Duval are podunk in comparison market wise. I think our skyline is still appropriate for our market size. Just north of us, Savannah and Charleston are both denser. But those markets are too small to demand serious high rise construction on the outskirts of their historic districts. However, in recent years, they've had some Brooklyn-level style mid-rise mixed-use development on the fringes.

Influence from 30 miles south? Miami? Being in a metro of 7 million people doesn't hurt either regardless of a lower population (look at Sunny Isles, Hollywood Beach, Hallandale Beach and other cities in that area...not large populations but skylines that rival or surpass some major Florida cities). Hard to imagine the southside being its own city, but I do remember the Southbank being called "South Jacksonville." San Marco would've either been downtown for the Southbank or South Jacksonville or maybe the southside; also possible as you say southside would've became its own town or city. At any rate, had Jax not consolidated, we can all agree that it would not have been nearly as big as it is now; not even close.