Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023

[jaxlongtimer]

^ If people get a chance to watch Deegan debate her opponents, I think they will be very impressed with her.  The question is will they watch... unfortunately, this is too often why some better candidates can't win over negative and inaccurate ads.  Voters, not the candidates, are really the main problem.

For the first time in decades....... I am inclined to not vote. Skip It. Joining so many other folks that could vote, but don't.
Pretty much disengaging with Jacksonville.

Not voting is a cop out, to me.  You may not like any of the candidates but you need to vote for the best of the lot.  Someone is going to win the job so you might as well exercise your right to help pick the best of the lot to win.  Allowing the worst of the lot to win because you didn't vote otherwise is how we got some of the terrible and/or extreme elected officials at all levels of government we see today.  I will always vote for this reason.

To add, if you don't like your choices, try running for office yourself  .  Or, encouraging a fellow citizen that is better to do so with your volunteer and/or financial support.

[fsu813]

The Davis campaign suing over a misleading political ad is practicing the ultimate hypocrisy.

He hired Tim Baker to run his campaign and this is the same type of nasty MO that Baker has used in campaigns he has managed.  You only have to go back to Nick Howland's recent campaign that he managed in which he took out of context a debate quote by Tracy Paulson that implied she was for defunding the police when she was actually saying just the opposite.  Although totally inaccurate and unfair, all the TV stations ran it and it likely assured she lost the election.

Davis knew going in what type of down-and-dirty campaign he was signing up for so he shouldn't complain when the tables are turned.  As they say, when you sleep with dogs, you get fleas.

Daniel Davis sues TV stations, calling 'Dirty Daniel' ad defamatory

https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2023/02/09/davis-sues-tv.html?utm_source=st&utm_medium=en&utm_campaign=me&utm_content=JA&ana=e_JA_me&j=30501802&senddate=2023-02-09

An out of context qoute was used?!? In a political TV commercial?!?

Gasp! Only Tim Baker could do such a thing!!!

LOL.

I believe each one of Cumber's attack ads has an out of context qoute/action being used against Davis.

Also, for the record, using out of context material for poltiical purposes has been standard procedure since, what, Athens, Greece?

[BridgeTroll]

Not voting is a cop out, to me.  You may not like any of the candidates but you need to vote for the best of the lot.  Someone is going to win the job so you might as well exercise your right to help pick the best of the lot to win.  Allowing the worst of the lot to win because you didn't vote otherwise is how we got some of the terrible and/or extreme elected officials at all levels of government we see today.  I will always vote for this reason.

To add, if you don't like your choices, try running for office yourself  .  Or, encouraging a fellow citizen that is better to do so with your volunteer and/or financial support. 

A better solution than not voting or voting for the least reprehensible...is to simply write someone in... the past two presidential elections I voted for my wife... 

[jaxlongtimer]

Wow, this group consists of Chamber type members so going for Cumber is a real sign of weakness for Davis.  Davis is looking very vulnerable.  Not surprised they didn't support Deegan.  It's a business Republican membership, no doubt, so Dems would never get an endorsement, even if they could walk on water.

First Coast Manufacturers Association endorses LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber for Jax Mayor

FCMA said Cumber's endorsement was based on her knowledge of city policies and issues.
LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber is landing a key endorsement from The First Coast Manufacturers Association (FCMA).

The endorsement, for Cumbers bid for Jacksonville Mayor, comes after the FCMA Government Relations Committee conducted candidate interviews. After weighing each response, they determined Cumber's vision provided the best path forward for maximizing tax dollars and benefitting the manufacturing industry.

In a press release announcing the endorsement, FCMA said Cumber's endorsement was based on her knowledge of city policies and issues, including that the manufacturing industry contributes about 15% of Jacksonville's GDP annually.

The group also praised Cumber for efforts as a City Council member to block a six-cent local fuel tax.

The industry is susceptible to increases in fuel costs, and increases would make manufacturing in Jacksonville more expensive than other areas in Florida and the U.S., which hampers competition, the group said....

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/587369-first-coast-manufacturers-association-endorses-leanna-gutierrez-cumber-for-jax-mayor/

And, following the money...

Jax mayoral candidate Daniel Davis spends more than $1.1M in January

Republican fundraising leader retains $3M for stretch run for March 'First Election.'
The leading fundraiser in the race for Jacksonville Mayor recorded a seven-figure spend last month.

Republican Daniel Davis, the CEO of the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, spent more than $96,000 in hard money in January, with an additional $1 million spent by his Building a Better Economy political committee.

Davis spent more from his political committee last month than in all months since its formation back in 2013, when he was still in the Legislature. The bulk of committee spending in January went to Flexpoint Media, which collected roughly $825,000 from the account last month. Data Targeting also did well, receiving roughly $185,000 of the committee spend.

Though the committee spent more than a million dollars, $124,000 in January fundraising defrayed some of those expenditures. Among the donors last month were MDB4L Investment, Black Knight, Keystone Properties, and Fidelity National Financial.

All told, the Davis committee exited January with more than $2.6 million on hand, as well as nearly $400,000 in his campaign account, despite spending more than he raised in hard money last month also, with more than $96,000 in outflow versus more than $41,000 raised. Among the significant spending: nearly $44,000 to Merus Strategies of Sanford, for yard signs.

Davis has dominated fundraising throughout not just his formal campaign but his extended pre-candidacy ahead of his launch last September, and only one candidate is competitive.

Republican LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber has yet to report committee fundraising and spending for January, but through December, the last month for which we currently have records, her JAX First committee had roughly $2.5 million on hand. Just as Davis spent heavily in January, City Council member Cumber's operation was also active, and we await a revised figure encompassing last month's committee spend.

Cumber has reported hard money fundraising and spending for January, and she had roughly $304,000 in her campaign account at the month's end, with over $97,000 spent and nearly $49,000 raised through Jan. 31. Over $70,000 of the January hard money total spend went to FP1 Strategies.

With vote by mail already beginning for the March 21 election, spending likely will outpace fundraising for all filed candidates. But the battle between establishment Republicans Cumber and Davis has dominated the airwaves, with each trying to claim the "conservative" vote, even as City Councilman Al Ferraro continues to run his own grassroots campaign. As of the end of January, he had roughly $250,000 on hand between his campaign account and his political committee.

Democrats Donna Deegan and Audrey Gibson are also running. Gibson closed January with roughly $180,000 left between her campaign account and her A Rising Tide political committee. Deegan closed January with roughly $300,000 in hard money, while January totals for her Donna for Duval political committee are still pending. She ended 2022 with more than $350,000 in that account.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/586977-jax-mayoral-candidate-daniel-davis-spends-more-than-1-1m-in-january/

[Charles Hunter]

Among the significant spending: nearly $44,000 to Merus Strategies of Sanford, for yard signs.

Great job as head of the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce - buying yard signs out of town.  [/sarcasm]

[Florida Power And Light]

No more Political Candidate Yard signs at my residence.
The next sign will be " For Sale".

[Tacachale]

No more Political Candidate Yard signs at my residence.
The next sign will be " For Sale".

Bye

[jaxlongtimer]

St. Pete Polls, that accurately predicted Curry's victory, has some very interesting results.  Deegan leads by far among all candidates and crushes Cumber or Davis in a runoff scenario.  Ferraro is polling well ahead of Cumber too.  Hoping Deegan hangs on for victory and blows up the Curry-Baker political machine.

Aside from leading by double digits in the polls, she is gaining endorsements and consolidating support... while Davis and Cumber annihilate each other.  Not surprised by Ferraro's showing based on what I have observed from "people on the street."  I think he siphons off much of the Trump crowd but not much more.

The election will be interesting.

Do you plan to vote in the March election for Jacksonville Mayor?
Yes: 96.5%
Unsure: 3.5%

If the election were held today for Jacksonville Mayor, and the candidates
were: Omega Allen, LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber, Daniel Davis, Donna Deegan,
Al Ferraro, Audrey Gibson and Frank Keasler who would you vote for?
Omega Allen: 2.4%
LeAnne Gutierrez Cumber: 4.1%
Daniel Davis: 17.5%
Donna Deegan: 35.2%
Al Ferraro: 10.6%
Audrey Gibson: 10.2%
Frank Keasler: 0.4%
Undecided / Won't say: 19.7%

If the election were held today for Jacksonville Mayor, and the candidates
were: Donna Deegan and Daniel Davis who would you vote for?
Donna Deegan: 51.3%
Daniel Davis: 25.8%
Undecided / Won't say: 22.9%

If the election were held today for Jacksonville Mayor, and the candidates
were: Donna Deegan and LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber who would you vote
for?
Donna Deegan: 54.9%
LeAnne Gutierrez Cumber: 15.5%
Undecided / Won't say: 29.6%

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2023_Jacksonville_February13_G6BZ4.pdf

Three of Jacksonville's best known African American pastors are backing Democrat Donna Deegan for Mayor.

The triple endorsement is the latest sign of coalescence behind Deegan, who was the frontrunner in a St. Pete Polls survey of the race this week....

...With less than five weeks before the March 21 First Election, these endorsements offer an indication that Deegan continues to consolidate Democratic support, despite the fact that former Sen. Audrey Gibson is also running. EMILY's List, an organization backing Democratic women who support access to legalized abortion, also endorsed Deegan Thursday.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/588972-preachers-pick-donna-deegan-in-jax-mayoral-race/

[Snaketoz]

I hope the poll is correct.

[Steve]

It's really early. Each poll had between 20% and 30% undecided.

Additionally, I have a hard time thinking that with THAT much undecided that Deegan gets over 50%. DeSantis pulled 55% of Duval County in November. At this stage with that many undecided, I have a really hard time buying she's got enough support now to cross 50%+1.

[Steve]

Related, I just reread the poll:

They called 478 people who they viewed as "likely" voters. They don't say how they decide a "likely" voter but I have some idea. Let's just say for a second it's logical.

They only include the results from those who say "Yes" or "Unsure" to that question. How many people is that? We know turnout will be lower than the Midterms.

Like I said, maybe it's legit but it FEELS off.

[jaxlongtimer]

It's really early. Each poll had between 20% and 30% undecided.

Additionally, I have a hard time thinking that with THAT much undecided that Deegan gets over 50%. DeSantis pulled 55% of Duval County in November. At this stage with that many undecided, I have a really hard time buying she's got enough support now to cross 50%+1.

Not sure how you are viewing this.  Poll shows only 35% in the primary.  The over 50% is in a theoretical runoff between just the two people shown.

Related, I just reread the poll:

They called 478 people who they viewed as "likely" voters. They don't say how they decide a "likely" voter but I have some idea. Let's just say for a second it's logical.

They only include the results from those who say "Yes" or "Unsure" to that question. How many people is that? We know turnout will be lower than the Midterms.

Like I said, maybe it's legit but it FEELS off.

Voter records show how often a person votes and when.  It is thus possible for a pollster to only call voters who vote recently and often to insure they get "likely" voters. 

These polls are usually within a margin of error of about 3 to 5% so they can be pretty close to reflecting current leanings.  As a result, in a close race, they may not be perfect predictors of who wins but with a bigger margins, like we see here, they should be more on the money.  A lot can happen up to the last minute to change these results but early voting is open now so many votes may have already been cast should any surprises pop up. 

I would imagine that ultimately undecideds break roughly in line with the decideds when they finally come to the table.  Given this is a mayoral election that is soon, I don't expect that we will get another poll like this before the election unless someone else (UNF?) puts one out with an update.

For now, this is the best independent reading we have.  Candidate takes on their internal polls (see Cumber's comments for example on this poll) are obviously going to have a big spin to them and, thus, are not reliable interpretations.

[Jax_Developer]

478 data points.. hard to take this with any seriousness. The variance on that dataset is massive.

[Josh]

478 data points.. hard to take this with any seriousness. The variance on that dataset is massive.

That's a pretty standard size polling sample for an electorate the size of Duval's and with a margin of error in the 4-5% range.

[jaxlongtimer]

The below, courtesy of Nate Monroe, is a sample of the legacy of Mayor Curry.  And, "I will lower taxes" Daniel Davis and others of his ilk will only pile on more of this leaving ever increasing City debt for future citizens of Jacksonville.

....Waste Pro's new $23.11 rate is nearly double the $12.65 trash fee, meaning the decline of the fund will accelerate in future years....

....The beleaguered solid-waste fund was already on track to be about $34 million in the red by September, a number that would have been even higher without the benefit of one-time federal money.

The city has propped up trash collection by loaning increasing amounts from its general fund each year. That might sound like a minor budgetary issue, and several years ago it more or less might have been. But it has grown into a thorny financial problem. The general fund loans represent real debt the solid-waste fund must eventually pay back....

....It boils down to a simple concept: The fee residents pay for trash pickup should cover the cost of the service. And at one time this was not a controversial concept. A previous ordinance mandated the fee to go up or down each year automatically based on the cost of garbage pickup. But city officials, for craven political purposes, waived that requirement year after year and eventually just killed the law altogether in 2020. Now, raising the fee is no longer a simple matter of good accounting practices but an overwrought act of political will — the council and mayor must act to do so....

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2023/02/17/lobbyist-nets-city-council-win-for-jacksonville-trash-hauler-waste-pro/69911783007/