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Will Russia invade Ukraine?

Started by BridgeTroll, January 14, 2022, 12:53:36 PM

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MusicMan

#105
March 05, 2022, 06:56:30 PM
If he attacks a NATO member?

BridgeTroll

#106
March 05, 2022, 07:31:27 PM
Sigh... never mind
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

MusicMan

#107
March 06, 2022, 11:55:51 AM
My statement was just a hypothetical. I don't expect anything like that to happen, but I believe the outcome would be decisive.

BridgeTroll

#108
March 06, 2022, 12:41:50 PM
I'm beginning to think that the no fly zone isn't even really needed. I have read plenty of stories from military analysts that the Russian air force has been surprisingly ineffective. They certainly hold a numeric advantage but Saturday the Ukrainians shot down 7 aircraft with ground based antiaircraft fire.  Most of the damage and devastation we see was caused by artillery and rocket fire.  Keep sending Stingers and even more advanced systems and Ukraine can designate and enforce their own no fly zone...
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

acme54321

#109
March 06, 2022, 10:19:51 PM
MANPADS systems are a serious threat to low flying aircraft.  The thing can go in the trunk of a car and be operated by a single person.  If I was a Russian helicopter pilot I'd be puckered up flying around knowing one of those things could be anywhere below.

BridgeTroll

#110
March 07, 2022, 05:12:47 PM
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

BridgeTroll

#111
March 07, 2022, 05:32:27 PM
Cool graphic...even if supplied by Chinese.

In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

BridgeTroll

#112
March 09, 2022, 08:38:45 AM
Great evaluation of Russia's invasion...

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/evaluating-russias-performance-in-ukraine/

QuoteEvaluating Russia's Performance in Ukraine
By George Friedman -March 8, 2022Open as PDF
The Russian invasion of Ukraine had two goals. The first was to take control of Ukraine, intending to complete the task begun in Belarus – the task of rebuilding Russia's strategic buffers and securing Russia from attack. The second goal was to demonstrate the capabilities and professionalism of the Russian military and to further deter hypothetical acts and increase Russia's regional influence. The two goals were interlocked.

The occupation of Ukraine has not been achieved, but it is not a lost cause. Perceptions of the strength of Russia's military, however, have been badly damaged. There is no question but that Russian planners did not want to fight the war Russia has been fighting. Rather than a rapid and decisive defeat of Ukraine, Russia is engaged in a slow, grinding war unlikely to impress the world with its return to the first ranks of military power. At this point, even a final victory in its first objective will not redeem the second. It is important to start identifying the Russian weaknesses.

The first problem was a loss of surprise. Carl von Clausewitz placed surprise at the top of warfare. Surprise contracts the time an enemy has to prepare for war. It also imposes a psychological shock that takes time to overcome, making it more difficult to implement existing plans. And it increases the perceived power of the enemy. In Ukraine, however, extended diplomacy gave Kyiv time to adjust psychologically to the possibility of war.

Moscow failed to understand its enemy. Russia clearly expected Ukrainian resistance to collapse rapidly in the face of the massive armored force it had gathered. It did not expect the Ukrainian populace to fight back to an extent that would at least delay completion of the war.

The purpose of war is to break the enemy's military capability. The Ukrainian military had a diffuse center of gravity and was at distance from the Russian armored battle groups. In addition, the population has fought back, increasing the amount of time necessary to end the resistance.

Russian war plans centered on three armored groups based in the east, south and north. Tanks have become vulnerable to infantry anti-tank weapons. Rather than brushing infantry aside, Russia now must use infantry to clear away deadly threats to its tanks. The use of armor as the decisive force on the battlefield, and therefore the main force, has evolved. This seems not to have been accepted by Russian planners. Armored war peaked in World War II. Armor remains present, but we have not seen armor-to-armor combat since the 1973 Arab-Israeli War and to some extent in Desert Storm. This was a generation ago. War has moved on.

The three Russian armored battle groups were widely separated. They did not support each other. Instead of a single coordinated war, the Kremlin opted for at least three separate wars, making a single decisive stroke impossible. A single integrated command, essential for warfighting, seemed to be lacking.

The use of armor vastly increased the pressure on Russian logistics. Instead of focusing supplies on a single thrust, it had to focus on three, plus other operations. Logistics for the major armored forces seemed to have broken down, making war termination impossible and further extending the war.

In recent days, Russia has adapted and turned toward taking cities. This is generating an effective counterforce among fighters who understand the streets and alleys and use them to delay Russia's progress. Fighting in cities is among the costliest and most time-consuming actions in war. Capturing cities takes resources and is not the key to victory. Cities take on importance only after the enemy force has been defeated and demoralizing the nation is essential. The city is the prize of war, not the military goal. Russia turned the conflict from a counter-military to a counter-population war, which increased resistance by sowing desperation in the cities.

Behind this was the fact that Russia simply failed to identify Ukraine's center of gravity. It concentrated armor and sought a similarly concentrated force to defeat. Instead, the center of gravity has been essentially an informal guerrilla force constantly dispersing and reforming, not threatening the Russians with defeat but keeping them off balance.

This pushed Russia further toward a counter-population strategy, which decreased the effectiveness of its armor – both slowing its progress and pitting it against small groups that it's not designed to fight.

Russia failed to shut down Ukrainian communications internally and with the rest of the world. Rather than isolating the enemy internally and externally, it allowed Kyiv to wage psychological warfare against the Russian attack on all fronts, undermining the Russian psychological goal of being seen as an overwhelming force.

All of this culminated in the Russians' final mistake. They expected the overwhelming availability of armor to cause a rapid capitulation. Ukraine is a large country, and if it is to be occupied by armor, the armor must move rapidly. Obviously, they expected shock and awe to break Ukraine's will to resist. The shock was dissipated by the loss of surprise. The awe was limited by Russia's inability to concentrate strategic force, and ultimately by Ukraine's mobilization of its population as a resistance force.

The Russians needed a rapid war to achieve their goals. The way in which they fought the war was not at odds with a final victory, but it was at odds with a fast one. Russia defeating Ukraine over the course of weeks or months is not awe-inspiring given their relative power. And Russia's goal of displaying a first-rank military in order to appear awesome to its neighbors will not be achieved. 
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

BridgeTroll

#113
March 10, 2022, 07:48:04 AM
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

BridgeTroll

#114
March 11, 2022, 05:01:48 PM
Things are not going well in Ukraine. Ukrainian defense is inspired and will undoubtedly last for quite awhile... but they are losing. I certainly support continued and accelerated sending arms for the Ukrainians to fight.  I do not endorse a no fly zone or direct confrontation.  I believe a negotiated peace at this point will concede large swaths of territory to Russia and political change in Russia's favor. Ukraine appears to be destined to be the buffer state Putin wants.  The upside to sacrificing Ukraine to Russia is the wakeup to the EU and NATO.  Putin has also identified himself and Russia as a country that CANNOT be trusted or believed. NATO and the EU need to treat Putin's Russia as the Soviet Union going forward.

I am not optimistic for Ukraine. 
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

BridgeTroll

#115
March 12, 2022, 07:47:24 AM
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

I-10east

#116
March 14, 2022, 01:36:06 PM Last Edit: March 14, 2022, 01:46:59 PM by I-10east
I know one thing for certain, the "uncredited misinformation" AKA "based alternative media" are batting .1000; meanwhile the one sided (Russia bad, Ukraine good) mainstream media is peddling lies like usual. When big tech censorship is silencing voices of the inconvenient truth, then you know that they are telling it like it is, minus a big corporate contact and cherry picked narrative.   

This war is about as complex as they come. Various unsavory globalistic tentacles are supporting both countries VIA proxy. One thing for sure, American neo liberals and neo conservatives are very happy with any war. 

Tacachale

#117
March 14, 2022, 02:36:39 PM
I was wondering when the Putin wing would get here.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

BridgeTroll

#118
March 14, 2022, 02:58:46 PM
Quote from: I-10east on March 14, 2022, 01:36:06 PM
I know one thing for certain, the "uncredited misinformation" AKA "based alternative media" are batting .1000; meanwhile the one sided (Russia bad, Ukraine good) mainstream media is peddling lies like usual. When big tech censorship is silencing voices of the inconvenient truth, then you know that they are telling it like it is, minus a big corporate contact and cherry picked narrative.   

This war is about as complex as they come. Various unsavory globalistic tentacles are supporting both countries VIA proxy. One thing for sure, American neo liberals and neo conservatives are very happy with any war. 
Wow... just what lies?  Please be specific so I can show your errors... please share an example of a "cherry picked narrative".  Your unfounded statements lacks credibility without some links and quotes.  I can pull links and quotes from all over the world to prove my points... can you?
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

I-10east

#119
March 14, 2022, 06:57:53 PM
^^^I wasn't even referring to you or anything. Why are you so aggressive? LOL. The same cabal of globalists gets to decide on what's "credible" or not...I don't have a damn dog in the fight; anyone saying I'm "Kremlin propaganda" probably already drunk the Kyiv Kool Aid.

If you insist with the link....Here's link from "the conservative friendly" Salon. Don't worry it's a "long story" though.... There's much more red flags too.... https://www.salon.com/2022/03/10/are-there-really-neo-nazis-fighting-for-ukraine-well-yes--but-its-a-long-story/


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