Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023

[jaxlongtimer]

I spoke with him last year about his run and he said he asked Donna Deegan whether she'd be entering the race and she said no.  She offered her support for him and I think that's a big reason why he felt he could compete with big money Davis.  Not sure what changed with her since then, but I think that's a big reason why he dropped out.  I'm guessing he'll endorse her.

Since he referenced fundraising as more effort than he bargained for, I am going to guess, with so many R's running, it was too competitive for R monies and, being a R (albeit a moderate one) he was unlikely to get enough from the D's to put him where he needed to get. 

Deegan, being the only D may be able to consolidate all the D dollars plus draw from the moderate R's Carlucci could raise dollars from, creating a bigger war chest than he could raise.  Likewise, Deegan may be able to increase the turnout of the D's, add moderate R's and leverage her #1 name recognition to give Davis a real horserace.  Carlucci would have likely split the R's votes with Davis, Cumber, Ferarro, etc. and not been able to get the full D turnout for him, especially with Deegan in the race.  Keep in mind, D's are the majority of the Duval electorate, they just need great turnout to take charge.  Deegan may be able to do that for the D's better than Carlucci.

So, in the end, it looks to me like a numbers game.  Carlucci has witnessed enough mayoral races to see that having more than one moderate candidate run just results in a wild card from the sidelines winning it all.  Carlucci sacrificed his own aspirations for the greater good of the community because if he and Deegan both ran, it would have played into the hands of Davis.  Given that many view Davis as Curry 2.0, that would not move the City away from the Good Ol' Boy control that Carlucci, Deegan and others would like to snuff out, once and for all.

I wonder what Carlucci will do with the dollars he already raised.  Probably more than he needs for a second term on the Council.  Will he move a chunk over to Deegan?  That is likely what many of his donors may want him to do at this point.  It would also give Deegan a good fundraising boost.

P.S.  I haven't found any voters happy with Curry's kiss-ass treatment of Khan.  People (including diehard Jags fans) seem to be enraged with the giveaways to Khan.  If Khan bankrolls Davis, it could actually result in a big offset for him - i.e. amount to a negative endorsement that cost him votes.  Will be interesting to watch and his opponents should exploit this if this actually occurs.

[BridgeTroll]

The good news for me is... I  get to sit this one out as no longer attracted to any of them... a big giant MEH to the rest of em...

[Florida Power And Light]

If it wasn't for a Joe Carlucci a Matt Carlucci would not have much traction now.
I have vowed to no longer vote for Serial Family Politicians.
Even if a Public Boat Ramp is named in honor of a Carlucci.
Ha!..... let's name a section of the First Coast Outer Beltway in honor of Senator Carlucci.
Somewhat long ago...... Redistrict revision process...... ends up Senator Carlucci, long established politically easterly St Johns River..... was faced with having his District revised to include Clay County.
At some point during the revision process, with the prospect of Clay, he stayed, as reported FTU...... " Over my dead body!".
Well..... turns out Clay would be Joe's new political  playground, and support for the Brannon/ Chaffee Leg was a given.
How Carlucci's Political Mantra was : " Tell It Like It Is"

[jaxlongtimer]

This is interesting.  That Cumber is raising so much money from outside conservatives doesn't address who her base is in Jax that will actually vote for her.  Aligning with Trump-y's may also not bode well for many in now-purple Duval.

Rick Perry hosts Texas fundraiser for Jacksonville's LeAnna Cumber

The former Texas Governor backed Lenny Curry in 2015.

For the second time in less than a decade, a former Texas Governor and Donald Trump Cabinet member is weighing in on the Jacksonville mayoral race with support this time for a sitting City Council member.

Rick Perry was the headliner at a Houston fundraiser Wednesday evening in support of JAX First, the political committee of potential candidate LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber.

Perry endorsed current Mayor Lenny Curry during the 2015 race. In this instance, however, he is weighing in months earlier in the cycle than he did when Curry ran. And he is doing so even before Cumber officially files, in what is the latest indication that her candidacy will be boosted by national support.

Perry's evening event was hosted by Ambassador Sada Cumber, who is the potential candidate's husband's uncle. He was appointed by former President George W. Bush as the first U.S. ambassador to the Organization of the Islamic Conference.

Additionally, LeAnna Cumber had a luncheon earlier in the day in Houston, where other alums of the second Bush administration attended.

Eduardo Aguirre, one co-host, was U.S. Ambassador to Spain. Fred Zeidman is Chair Emeritus of the United States Holocaust Memorial Council. Zeidman serves on the Board of the Republican Jewish Coalition.

Fundraising expectations for the trip were significant, with more than $100,000 expected between the two events. That's the latest sign that the Jacksonville mayoral race will be an expensive affair.

Cumber's political committee fundraising has been a lead story in recent months.

Cumber will report just over $165,000 in new money in January raised to her state-level JAX First political committee. That will put the committee at over $1.8 million raised since its inception in September 2021, and continues a trend of robust fundraising for the committee. The slowest month was December, where the committee raised just over $147,000.

Cumber's committee fundraising is good for second place in the field of potential candidates, though she has ground to make up on the frontrunner, who is also a Republican.

Building a Better Economy, the political committee of Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce Chair Daniel Davis, raised $368,700 in January from regional and statewide donors. The committee has $3.5 million on hand.

Official candidates in the race have struggled to match these pre-candidates.

Democrat Donna Deegan closed 2021 with roughly $310,000 banked between her Donna for Duval political committee and her campaign account.

Republican Al Ferraro, a City Council member, closed the year with a little less than $170,000 on hand.

We await fresh accounting from both.

Independent candidate Omega Allen, who has run in the last two mayoral elections, had about $5,000 on hand at the end of January, with $1,700 of that raised last month.

Nearly $6 million has been raised for this race already, with qualifying not until January 2023. Last year, Council member Matt Carlucci signaled how expensive the race will be when bowed out of a mayoral bid and opted to run for re-election instead, despite his own substantial fundraising.

Expect that the field will expand. State Sen. Audrey Gibson is looking at a potential campaign, which could only launch after the Legislative Session ends in March. Other Democrats likewise could emerge in the next few months.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/495009-perry-cumber/

[fsu813]

This is interesting.  That Cumber is raising so much money from outside conservatives doesn't address who her base is in Jax that will actually vote for her.  Aligning with Trump-y's may also not bode well for many in now-purple Duval.

Rick Perry hosts Texas fundraiser for Jacksonville's LeAnna Cumber

The former Texas Governor backed Lenny Curry in 2015.

For the second time in less than a decade, a former Texas Governor and Donald Trump Cabinet member is weighing in on the Jacksonville mayoral race with support this time for a sitting City Council member.

Rick Perry was the headliner at a Houston fundraiser Wednesday evening in support of JAX First, the political committee of potential candidate LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber.

Perry endorsed current Mayor Lenny Curry during the 2015 race. In this instance, however, he is weighing in months earlier in the cycle than he did when Curry ran. And he is doing so even before Cumber officially files, in what is the latest indication that her candidacy will be boosted by national support.

Perry's evening event was hosted by Ambassador Sada Cumber, who is the potential candidate's husband's uncle. He was appointed by former President George W. Bush as the first U.S. ambassador to the Organization of the Islamic Conference.

Additionally, LeAnna Cumber had a luncheon earlier in the day in Houston, where other alums of the second Bush administration attended.

Eduardo Aguirre, one co-host, was U.S. Ambassador to Spain. Fred Zeidman is Chair Emeritus of the United States Holocaust Memorial Council. Zeidman serves on the Board of the Republican Jewish Coalition.

Fundraising expectations for the trip were significant, with more than $100,000 expected between the two events. That's the latest sign that the Jacksonville mayoral race will be an expensive affair.

Cumber's political committee fundraising has been a lead story in recent months.

Cumber will report just over $165,000 in new money in January raised to her state-level JAX First political committee. That will put the committee at over $1.8 million raised since its inception in September 2021, and continues a trend of robust fundraising for the committee. The slowest month was December, where the committee raised just over $147,000.

Cumber's committee fundraising is good for second place in the field of potential candidates, though she has ground to make up on the frontrunner, who is also a Republican.

Building a Better Economy, the political committee of Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce Chair Daniel Davis, raised $368,700 in January from regional and statewide donors. The committee has $3.5 million on hand.

Official candidates in the race have struggled to match these pre-candidates.

Democrat Donna Deegan closed 2021 with roughly $310,000 banked between her Donna for Duval political committee and her campaign account.

Republican Al Ferraro, a City Council member, closed the year with a little less than $170,000 on hand.

We await fresh accounting from both.

Independent candidate Omega Allen, who has run in the last two mayoral elections, had about $5,000 on hand at the end of January, with $1,700 of that raised last month.

Nearly $6 million has been raised for this race already, with qualifying not until January 2023. Last year, Council member Matt Carlucci signaled how expensive the race will be when bowed out of a mayoral bid and opted to run for re-election instead, despite his own substantial fundraising.

Expect that the field will expand. State Sen. Audrey Gibson is looking at a potential campaign, which could only launch after the Legislative Session ends in March. Other Democrats likewise could emerge in the next few months.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/495009-perry-cumber/

Seems like the obvious (and effective) strategy would be the outsiders vs the locals. Easy to write that narrative.

[vicupstate]

^^ Yeah, does anyone that donated to JAX First actually live there?

Perfect example of why partisan city elections are poisonous. WTF does Rick Perry know about what is best for Jacksonville ?

[jaxoNOLE]

^^ Yeah, does anyone that donated to JAX First actually live there?

Perfect example of why partisan city elections are poisonous. WTF does Rick Perry know about what is best for Jacksonville ?

Agreed. Nationalizing local races is absurd, and turns our local politics into virtue-signaling theater. Meanwhile, the actual act of governing takes a back seat to constant resume-polishing for the next-higher office election. I usually give outsized weight to the (perceived) character of local candidates vs. their ideologies. I'd rather have a transparent, well-run government spending my tax dollars on priorities I don't support than a dysfunctional, backstabbing cabal of political climbers flushing those taxes down the toilet in a way that benefits nobody but their donors. If you run a dirty campaign for a local seat, it's a pretty good predictor of your behavior once you hold the office.

It makes me wonder how and if our turnout numbers and election results would change if party affiliation was dropped from the general election ballot.

[Charles Hunter]

In the Charles Hunter Ideal World, only people who are legally eligible to vote in the election of a candidate may contribute to that candidate. Thus, I could only donate to the City Council District 1 race, all Duval-wide races, including the 5 At-Large Council seats, and the School Board, Florida Legislature, and Congress races for my respective districts, state-wide elections in Florida, and President/Vice President. You would not have to be registered to vote, although that would be nice, just live in the appropriate geographic area.

Thus, I couldn't give to a State Legislative candidate in Iowa, or a Congressional race in New York (and they couldn't solicit me). It also means the corporations (which are NOT people, sorry SCOTUS), interest groups, unions, etc., could not contribute to political campaigns.  How political parties fund campaigns would have to be worked out. A key is to overturn Citizens United, so only "people" can contribute.

[jaxoNOLE]

I hadn't gotten around to reading the news today when I made my earlier post, but Mark Woods actually put out an article this morning that pretty well sums it up. In short, the article describes an outsider political consultant (this one is affiliated with local Republicans) whose company put out a mailer clearly and blatantly misrepresenting an opponent's quote on a controversial subject (defunding the police). This same consultant had previously admitted in an interview about the JEA scandal, "As you're probably getting the sense here, I'm not into the weeds of what goes on in Jacksonville day to day."

Worth a read, even if the content isn't surprising.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/mark-woods/2022/02/11/politics-jacksonville-city-council-race-replace-hazouri-like-game-out-context-howland-polson/6650480001/

[fieldafm]

I hadn't gotten around to reading the news today when I made my earlier post, but Mark Woods actually put out an article this morning that pretty well sums it up. In short, the article describes an outsider political consultant (this one is affiliated with local Republicans) whose company put out a mailer clearly and blatantly misrepresenting an opponent's quote on a controversial subject (defunding the police). This same consultant had previously admitted in an interview about the JEA scandal, "As you're probably getting the sense here, I'm not into the weeds of what goes on in Jacksonville day to day."

Worth a read, even if the content isn't surprising.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/mark-woods/2022/02/11/politics-jacksonville-city-council-race-replace-hazouri-like-game-out-context-howland-polson/6650480001/

Tim Baker is not an out-of-the-area consultant dabbling in a local election.  He lives in Jacksonville (I'd say he really lives in the Mayor's office, but the Mayor is never actually there... so that would be hyperbole).  His wife worked in the Mayor's office. His former business partner is the current number 1 in the Mayor's office, and his current business partner was formerly the number 1 in the Mayor's office. 

To describe Mr Baker as an 'outsider political consultant' in a local city council race is 100% not accurate.

It makes me wonder how and if our turnout numbers and election results would change if party affiliation was dropped from the general election ballot.

That wouldn't accomplish anything.  You'd still very much know what a candidate's party affiliation would be, and each party would drive turnout to a particular candidate just the same as today. 

[jaxoNOLE]

I hadn't gotten around to reading the news today when I made my earlier post, but Mark Woods actually put out an article this morning that pretty well sums it up. In short, the article describes an outsider political consultant (this one is affiliated with local Republicans) whose company put out a mailer clearly and blatantly misrepresenting an opponent's quote on a controversial subject (defunding the police). This same consultant had previously admitted in an interview about the JEA scandal, "As you're probably getting the sense here, I'm not into the weeds of what goes on in Jacksonville day to day."

Worth a read, even if the content isn't surprising.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/mark-woods/2022/02/11/politics-jacksonville-city-council-race-replace-hazouri-like-game-out-context-howland-polson/6650480001/

Tim Baker is not an out-of-the-area consultant dabbling in a local election.  He lives in Jacksonville (I'd say he really lives in the Mayor's office, but the Mayor is never actually there... so that would be hyperbole).  His wife worked in the Mayor's office. His former business partner is the current number 1 in the Mayor's office, and his current business partner was formerly the number 1 in the Mayor's office. 

To describe Mr Baker as an 'outsider political consultant' in a local city council race is 100% not accurate. 

Thanks for correcting a lazy generalization on my part. I suppose it was accurate when he showed up to assist in electing Curry, if the article timeline is correct ("That certainly can't be traced simply to Baker arriving in town in 2015"), but wouldn't apply to the current situation 7 years later. Although, it's thematically similar for an outsider to come to town originally to influence a local election and then sticking around to influence the entire administration and subsequent races. Regardless, the complaint still stands as to the character of the political campaigning.

It makes me wonder how and if our turnout numbers and election results would change if party affiliation was dropped from the general election ballot.

That wouldn't accomplish anything.  You'd still very much know what a candidate's party affiliation would be, and each party would drive turnout to a particular candidate just the same as today.

How many people are signed up for mail-in ballots and are surprised when these off-cycle ones show up in their mailbox? How many will automatically vote for the "R" or "D", having barely heard either name or knowing nothing about either candidate? Participation roll-off in nonpartisan judicial elections -- where, given cursory research, it's easy enough to imply party affiliation -- that are held on the same ballot as partisan races suggests some effect. Granted, judgeships are not city council or mayoral seats, but they are low-information, low-interest elections. I think there's some relevancy there. Maybe forcing someone to Google a name would produce some sort of knowledge about the race other than the person's party affiliation.

[fieldafm]

Baker was also born in Jacksonville.

Its not like all registered republicans, or all registered democrats vote all the way down the ballot.  Name recognition has a lot to do with whether someone participates further down the ballot.  Turnout among political affiliations (and subsequently the targeting of messaging among that likely group of party-affiliated voters) has a lot do with that name recognition. 

Corrine Brown's quick picks cards were talked about quite a bit locally a decade ago... but that same stuff occurred all the way back to the days when this country was first organized as a republic.  Corrine's quick picks didn't have the word 'democrat' plastered all over it. 

Constitutional amendments and local referendums have no party affiliation whatsoever attached to them, but generally the vote for those considerations fall along party affiliation preferences.

If you strip out all party affiliations, I just don't agree that voting preferences are going to dramatically change.

[jaxlongtimer]

I hadn't gotten around to reading the news today when I made my earlier post, but Mark Woods actually put out an article this morning that pretty well sums it up. In short, the article describes an outsider political consultant (this one is affiliated with local Republicans) whose company put out a mailer clearly and blatantly misrepresenting an opponent's quote on a controversial subject (defunding the police). This same consultant had previously admitted in an interview about the JEA scandal, "As you're probably getting the sense here, I'm not into the weeds of what goes on in Jacksonville day to day."

Worth a read, even if the content isn't surprising.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/mark-woods/2022/02/11/politics-jacksonville-city-council-race-replace-hazouri-like-game-out-context-howland-polson/6650480001/

Woods said the Paulson quote was taken out of context from a News4Jax discussion and used in a flyer.  Howland is also using the clip out of context in television ads he has run during the Olympics on Ch. 12/NBC/First Coast News.  FYI, Paulson used similar wording to the Ch. 4 debate in a debate she had with Howland on Ch. 47 last Sunday.  As soon as I saw the TV ad, I knew it was out of context, having seen her say those words in context.  Was shocked and disappointed that Ch. 12 would agree to run such a blatant misrepresentation/low blow.  A real disservice to the community and their viewers.

Would never vote for Howland or any other candidate that gets that down and dirty (or, for that matter, has Baker as their manager/consultant).  If they are that dishonest before being elected, imagine what they would do if empowered by the office they seek.  Clearly, they are running not to serve the public but only themselves and the special interests that back them.

By the way, in my view, Paulson blew away Howland in the debate.  Clearly, he is not up to her level so it's probably why he plays dirty politics.  He can't win on his own merits.

[jaxoNOLE]

Baker was also born in Jacksonville.
...
If you strip out all party affiliations, I just don't agree that voting preferences are going to dramatically change.

Sounds like an unfair characterization, then, to say Baker arrived in 2015 if he has roots and connections locally, as it's entirely typical for people to return to areas they find familiar. I appreciate the context.

I 100% agree with your points on down-ballot participation, constitutional amendments and referendums. That's part of what got me thinking this direction. I also agree that voter preferences are unlikely to change. However, engagement might. And I'm thinking the effect on engagement may not be homogenous across party lines. Higher levels of education correlate to better turnout/reduced roll-off in down-ballot and nonpartisan elections, and education demographics vary across party lines.

I'll concede such a change might not matter today in Duval politics; if engagement among Republicans drops 2% and among Democrats 1%, we're likely still very Red in low-turnout elections. Admittedly, I was more musing than asserting a conclusion, and I suppose the cynic in me is thinking more along the lines of voter behavior than anything else. In big spend races -- like the topic of this thread, 2023 mayor -- the party affiliations will be clear and thus, your points probably prevail. Off-cycle council races? Water management district 37!%3? I still think there's a subset who would bubble in based on party affiliation, but opt-out if they didn't immediately know the candidates. As we grow purple-r, that could start to matter.

I hadn't gotten around to reading the news today when I made my earlier post, but Mark Woods actually put out an article this morning that pretty well sums it up. In short, the article describes an outsider political consultant (this one is affiliated with local Republicans) whose company put out a mailer clearly and blatantly misrepresenting an opponent's quote on a controversial subject (defunding the police). This same consultant had previously admitted in an interview about the JEA scandal, "As you're probably getting the sense here, I'm not into the weeds of what goes on in Jacksonville day to day."

Worth a read, even if the content isn't surprising.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/mark-woods/2022/02/11/politics-jacksonville-city-council-race-replace-hazouri-like-game-out-context-howland-polson/6650480001/

Woods said the Paulson quote was taken out of context from a News4Jax discussion and used in a flyer.  Howland is also using the clip out of context in television ads he has run during the Olympics on Ch. 12/NBC/First Coast News.  FYI, Paulson used similar wording to the Ch. 4 debate in a debate she had with Howland on Ch. 47 last Sunday.  As soon as I saw the TV ad, I knew it was out of context, having seen her say those words in context.  Was shocked and disappointed that Ch. 12 would agree to run such a blatant misrepresentation/low blow.  A real disservice to the community and their viewers.

Would never vote for Howland or any other candidate that gets that down and dirty (or, for that matter, has Baker as their manager/consultant).  If they are that dishonest before being elected, imagine what they would do if empowered by the office they seek.  Clearly, they are running not to serve the public but only themselves and the special interests that back them.

By the way, in my view, Paulson blew away Howland in the debate.  Clearly, he is not up to her level so it's probably why he plays dirty politics.  He can't win on his own merits.

JLT, I'm fairly certain our politics are quite opposed, but after watching the debate and reading the Woods article, I agree in respect to Howland. While I am very anti-"defund the police", Trayce has made clear her policy is to add to JSO resources for mental health professionals, not reallocate. I can't see the negative, and I don't find Howland's scarcity argument compelling when we can find hundreds of millions for Khan's subsidies and clown cars. Furthermore, I can't think of a single clear policy position Howland has articulated. This is coming from someone who, frankly, wants to be Republican, but observes Curry, Cumber, Howland, Diamond, DeSantis, and Trump and is left wondering -- is this the best we have? Do we really need our local politicos to toe the national party line? Does it really affect whether I can start recycling again, or go downtown for a night out without passing several blocks of closed businesses?

It's fairly damning that, as a right-of-center voter, I view Howland's list of endorsements as indicative of political machinery, not qualifications.

[Charles Hunter]

As soon as I saw the TV ad, I knew it was out of context, having seen her say those words in context.  Was shocked and disappointed that Ch. 12 would agree to run such a blatant misrepresentation/low blow.  A real disservice to the community and their viewers.

Does a TV station have the right to refuse a political ad?
Even WJXT, which exposed Howland's lies in the ad, is running the ad.