Publix closing

[thelakelander]

He said there are two locations near the Gateway store. One is 6 miles north at 1840 Dunn Ave. and another is 5 miles south at 2033 Riverside Ave.

Publix operates 56 stores in the Northeast Florida market, Stevens said previously.

The two closest grocery stores appear to be Harveys Supermarket about a mile east at 201 W 48th St. and Save A Lot about 1.2 miles east at 5751 N. Main St.

The urban core (pre-consolidated city) declined 50% in population between 1950 and 2010. I suspect it's still in decline and has been in continuous decline in the 20 years Publix has operated at Gateway. Perhaps, they're looking at the downward trend and deciding its best not to re-up to keep three stores for a declining population that may not be able to support all three of them through the end of a lease extension? Clearly, the other two are in more stable areas, so when comparing the three, its easy to figure which one gets the short end of the stick. IMO, the focus should be less on Publix and more on the city to actually live up to the economic promises that have been made to this area of town for decades.

[Snaketoz]

A lot of you may not be aware, but this will be the second time Gateway has/will lose a Publix supermarket.  My brother worked at the old Gateway Publix back in the early 60s.  Believe it or not, it closed then because Winn-Dixie had the rights to S&H green stamps and they were so popular back in those days that Publix couldn't compete with W-D in Jacksonville!  Hate to see the area lose the store.  I grew up nearby.  In those days I thought Gateway was the greatest place ever.

[jaxlongtimer]

Would be interesting to know if any JTA buses stop by Gateway and what the schedules are.  Many people need mass transit to get around in these areas and I am betting that's not so easy to rely on.  If you were to take a bus to Publix or any other grocery store, purchase cold items, etc. and have to wait for 1 plus hours to get a bus to your neighborhood and then walk a few more blocks or better, I would think that would be pretty discouraging, especially on warm days.  Can't imagine buying ice cream this way  ?

Curious, did that Publix offer home delivery like many others do now?

[Ken_FSU]

Would be interesting to know if any JTA buses stop by Gateway and what the schedules are.

Gateway is a major stop on the First Coast Flyer's Green Line.

[jaxlongtimer]

Would be interesting to know if any JTA buses stop by Gateway and what the schedules are.

Gateway is a major stop on the First Coast Flyer's Green Line.

Thanks and noted.

While the Flyers may be a good starting point, they are more or less straight lines from Downtown to I-295 and beyond.  If you don't live within walking distance of this spoke, you still have a transportation issue.  Based on JTA's own map (https://fcf.jtafla.com/phases/#green-line-north-corridor-route-102), it would appear that the singular Flyer Green Line is only feasible for a very small segment of the north by northwest quadrant residents.

Seems it would be helpful if the Flyer spokes were complimented by similar frequent levels of service on numerous connecting routes that go laterally and deep into surrounding neighborhoods.  What is considered an appropriate walking distance to a bus stop?

[thelakelander]

Would be interesting to know if any JTA buses stop by Gateway and what the schedules are.

Gateway is a major stop on the First Coast Flyer's Green Line.

There's two Save A Lots and a Walmart Supercenter on the same BRT line. Hard to blame Publix. Their primary reason for being in business isn't charity. If Jax really wants to resolve economic issues and decline facing this area of town, it's going to have to seriously put its money where its mouth has been with the unmet promises made since consolidation. No recruitment of a single chain is going to put a serious or long term dent in the problem.

[thelakelander]

What is considered an appropriate walking distance to a bus stop?

1/4 mile or five minute walk radius. But transit isn't going to work with low density. The key (and it won't happen overnight) is to allow and flood as much density as possible within walking distance of high frequency transit spines. The transformation of Northern Virginia along the Orange Line and Dadeland on Miami's Metrorail are two good late 20th century examples of this.

[Charles Hunter]

According to the JTA System Map, three regular routes also serve the Gateway Center transfer point:
12 - which serves the area between Edgewood and Trout River, and the Myrtle Ave corridor
21 - which serves UF Health (Shands) on 8th, Main Street and northern Springfield
51 - a cross-town route that mostly follows Edgewood and Cassat and serves the FSCJ Kent Campus transfer point

https://www.jtafla.com/schedules/

[thelakelander]

Grocery stores served by routes 12, 21 and 51:

12 - Sav-a-lot at Lem Turner & Edgewood
21 - Generally parallels the First Coast Flyer Green Line
51 - Harveys and Sav-a-lot at 48th & Main, Sav-a-lot at Lem Turner & Edgewood, Harvey's at Avenue B, Sav-a-lot on Edgewood, Proposed Rowe's at Commonwealth and Edgewood, Sav-a-lot at Edgewood and Broadway.

Question: Is Sav-a-lot considered to be a full service grocery store?

Thought: There are tons of local corner markets throughout the urban core. What would it take to assist a portion of these types of places to expand their offerings?

[KenFSU]

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/city-officials-want-publix-at-gateway-town-center-to-stay-open

[vicupstate]

According to Gaffney, rent for Publix at Gateway has remained stable at approximately $19,000 per month, including taxes and fees, for more than a decade. Gaffney said the lease includes a renewal option to keep the rent unchanged, and Gator Investments would extend the rate for 10 years.

Well rising rent isn't the issue.

[bl8jaxnative]

Grocery's a low margin business.   For a lot of grocery's they break-even or even lose money on produce.  They have to make up for it on other areas.

If you want to understand why a Publix is closing at Gateway:

a) Determine the catchment area that Publix uses
b) Look at the number of households in that catchment area
c) Look at the household incomes in that catchment area

Publix problem in that area is that doens't have enough households to throw $ at enough of the high margin to make a go of that store.   Not with the underlying costs that they have.   

The population declines in the area don't help.  But the real driver is the severe drop in household incomes.

[vicupstate]

Volume can make up for low margins too.   

Has the population and income changed that much in the 20 years since it opened? It was a struggling area in 2000 too.

[thelakelander]

Population is still in rust belt like decline. It was down to 50% of its 1950 population in the 2010 census. We'll know the real numbers next year but there's nothing visual indicating that the surrounding neighborhoods are growing again.

[vicupstate]

It may be that the households use to largely house families, but now largely house empty nest couples or elderly singles.