Publix closing

[jaxlongtimer]

Grocery's a low margin business.   For a lot of grocery's they break-even or even lose money on produce.  They have to make up for it on other areas.

If you want to understand why a Publix is closing at Gateway:

a) Determine the catchment area that Publix uses
b) Look at the number of households in that catchment area
c) Look at the household incomes in that catchment area

Publix problem in that area is that doens't have enough households to throw $ at enough of the high margin to make a go of that store.   Not with the underlying costs that they have.   

The population declines in the area don't help.  But the real driver is the severe drop in household incomes.

Agree.  Publix and any other grocer is in business to make money.  Either this store is losing money or its not giving off enough return to justify the invested resources it takes to keep it operating.

The rent already seems relatively low so subsidizing that likely won't make much difference.

Given Publix operates profitably over 1,000 stores, the only apparent difference makers remaining are lack of sales dollars and/or extraordinary shrinkage.  I won't speculate on how to solve the shrinkage issue if it even exists, but to gain more sales dollars either more customers need to shop there and/or the ones they have need to spend more.  I don't see one idea the City has to fix either one of those issues successfully and sustainably.  Store subsidies don't drive sales and thus don't sustain any store that gets them over time.  They only serve to delay the inevitable.

By the way, I note that a $750,000 subsidy equates to about the same amount of dollars Publix is currently spending per store just to keep them "updated" every few years so, further to my point, this is more evidence that subsidies won't go far.

For now, if Publix changes course on this store, it would most likely be only for the optics and I would expect this issue will arise again on the very next lease renewal if nothing else changes.

[thelakelander]

I'd be surprised if Publix cares about optics in Jax. It's a Fortune 500 company. It's closed stores in areas like Gateway in cities all over the Southeast for decades. When the numbers don't make sense, they don't make sense. If they'll do it in comparable Miami, Tampa and Orlando neighborhoods, they'll do so here.

[thelakelander]

Rowe's has signed a letter of intent to take over the Publix space at Gateway:

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/rowes-wants-to-take-over-publix-space-at-gateway-town-center

[marcuscnelson]

Wow, feels like Rowe's is really starting to expand lately.

[MusicMan]

Just noticed that the old Quality Foods Grocery at 27 East 7th Street in Springfiled is under contract....anybody know what's going in there?

[I-10east]

An Aldi would be great at that spot.

[MusicMan]

YES. But there must be a plan in place, imagine Bill Hoff knows.