The Jacksonville Jaguars

[Wacca Pilatka]

Changing subjects to a quarterback on whose merits we all can agree:

Blaine Gabbert will be starting for the Cardinals against the Jaguars next Sunday.

[JaxAvondale]

Playcalling yesterday was definitely conservative. 

As far as the Bortles hate... whatever.

Last year's INT filled '16, everyone was BEGGING for BB5 to just throw it away rather than force it.  Now this year, when he tosses it into the ground or throws a ball just out of reach of his WR and definitely out of reach of the DB, everyone wonders why he's not making more passes...   We'll just continue to watch 2 different games.  I'm ok with that.

FTR - he threw away 3 balls yesterday by my count, had 3 batted passes (1 because of a poorly run route, the other because the OL disengaged) and had 2 drops.  You add those and the Westbrook catch and he's over 200 yds with an 80% completion % and 2 TDs.  But you know... Because Blake....

Don't forget about the pass that he threw down the field to Lee in the 4 QTR. That was a great throw.

[ben says]

I´ll start by saying...I do think BB has improved. Some would argue by leaps and bounds. I´m much more comfortable with BB this year than I was last.

I think part of the BB bashing stems from two very important things.

1. Knowing how much better we´d be - literally SB contenders better - with a better QB at the helm.

2. Knowing that, despite the improvement over last year, he just hasn´t improved enough.

It drives me nuts knowing that we´d be a near SB lock with an almost-elite QB. It´s almost mind numbingly annoying. I understand why they went with Blake, but why they didn´t bring in some pre season competition grates me the wrong way.

Secondly, it drives me nuts seeing him flail around under pressure. The second he thinks the pocket is collapsing (whether or not it actually is), you can LITERALLY see him freaking out on live TV. He could have 2-3 guys open downfield, but if the D line is in his face, he either makes a bone headed play or he drops it off to some guy 3 yards away.

Bottom line: thrilled with the improvement year over year with this team...but not thrilled knowing we´ll likely be knocked out of the playoffs in the first game due to extremely subpar QB play.

I don´t agree w the BB bashing, and I think it´s almost trendy at this point to talk shit on him. I think he´s much better than he gets credit for. That said...

Better or not, improvement or not...BB5 is the weakest link. Period.

(I just pray our D is this good next year, and for a few years to come...add in a Kirk Cousins etc and next year could be Jags to the Super Bowl - realistically)

[Non-RedNeck Westsider]

(I just pray our D is this good next year, and for a few years to come...add in a Kirk Cousins etc and next year could be Jags to the Super Bowl - realistically)

And therein lies the problem....  Our D should be this good until about 2019 when we have to start making some serious decisions regarding who we're going to pay.

We have an offense without any real playmakers on the outside.  Lee has been OK, but he can't catch the ball when a DB is near him - and we're going to have to make a decision on him and A-Rob this offseason.

Based on current contracts, we'll have over 56% of our cap tied up in our defense - the highest paid defense in the league.  That doesn't leave room for playmakers and a high-priced FA QB on the other side.  Currently we're 19th in spending on the offensive side. 

Seems about right; you get what you pay for. A top ranked defense and a middle of the road offense. 

So it's easy to say - we just need to grab an elite QB.  It's going to be a helluva lot harder to do.  Those guys aren't cheap.   

[JaxAvondale]

The Jags have to hope Westbrook continues to show promise. This will make their decision concerning Lee much easier. Analytics show that it is much easier to replace a skilled offensive RB or WR. So, the Jags should be more defensive focused.

[pierre]

(I just pray our D is this good next year, and for a few years to come...add in a Kirk Cousins etc and next year could be Jags to the Super Bowl - realistically)

And therein lies the problem....  Our D should be this good until about 2019 when we have to start making some serious decisions regarding who we're going to pay.

We have an offense without any real playmakers on the outside.  Lee has been OK, but he can't catch the ball when a DB is near him - and we're going to have to make a decision on him and A-Rob this offseason.

Based on current contracts, we'll have over 56% of our cap tied up in our defense - the highest paid defense in the league.  That doesn't leave room for playmakers and a high-priced FA QB on the other side.  Currently we're 19th in spending on the offensive side. 

Seems about right; you get what you pay for. A top ranked defense and a middle of the road offense. 

So it's easy to say - we just need to grab an elite QB.  It's going to be a helluva lot harder to do.  Those guys aren't cheap.

I don't see Lee coming back. He's been healthy the past two years and doesn't appear to have a very high ceiling. I'd let someone else pay him and allow Westbrook to fill that role on the team.

[pierre]

The Jags have to hope Westbrook continues to show promise. This will make their decision concerning Lee much easier. Analytics show that it is much easier to replace a skilled offensive RB or WR. So, the Jags should be more defensive focused.

I was thinking about that watching the Saints.

The past few seasons, they have dumped Jimmy Graham, Brandin Cooks and Kenny Stills and have the top offense in the NFL.

[Steve]

(I just pray our D is this good next year, and for a few years to come...add in a Kirk Cousins etc and next year could be Jags to the Super Bowl - realistically)

And therein lies the problem....  Our D should be this good until about 2019 when we have to start making some serious decisions regarding who we're going to pay.

We have an offense without any real playmakers on the outside.  Lee has been OK, but he can't catch the ball when a DB is near him - and we're going to have to make a decision on him and A-Rob this offseason.

Based on current contracts, we'll have over 56% of our cap tied up in our defense - the highest paid defense in the league.  That doesn't leave room for playmakers and a high-priced FA QB on the other side.  Currently we're 19th in spending on the offensive side. 

Seems about right; you get what you pay for. A top ranked defense and a middle of the road offense. 

So it's easy to say - we just need to grab an elite QB.  It's going to be a helluva lot harder to do.  Those guys aren't cheap.   

Agreed on having to pay some folks. They took care of Telvin during the Bye Week. I think next year you really have to look at Yannick and Fowler. The challenge is resigning both - Yannick is the priority to me. The year after, you have to be looking at Ramsey and Jack. Ramsey is going to want out of this world money, and you're probably going to have to pay it or lose him because someone will pay him BIG. Jack needs to get paid too, but maybe not as much. I think the odd man out is Colvin this offseason - runor is he wants to be paid, but on this team he's a nickel and that won't change with Boyue and Ramsey here for a while (likely).

On the other side of the ball, A-Rob actually makes sense to Franchise if you ask me. This was his contract year, and it blew up in Week 1, which isn't advantageous to either of them. To me, you Franchise him for 2018 and see what happens. My belief is his ceiling is likely as a #2 receiver on a great offense and he probably will need to be paid as one. I'd let Marqise go as I don't think he's your #1, and his skillset is as a #1. If it isn't Westbrook (or Cole), then the team doesn't have a #1 receiver. Hurns is a bit of a challenge as I think they overpaid a little. That might not end well. Then, the only other ones on the offense you need to be prepared to write a check to in the 2019 timeframe is likely Cam Robinson and Leonard Fournette (assuming both stay healthy).

Then you have the QB. I can't imagine Blake plays under the $18M option for next year, but what do you do. From a QB perspective, this didn't go well this year in terms of decision making - he's improved some, which almost teases you. He's not a "must sign", and he's not a "must cut". That's I'm not sure what to do on.

[Wacca Pilatka]

Given that Hurns could be let go at the end of year 2 of his contract extension - that is, at the end of this season - you might see the Jags let Hurns go while trying to retain both Robinson and Lee.

In terms of consistency, I'd rather keep Hurns than Lee if it came down to choosing between those two.  Development down the stretch from Westbrook and Cole would sure help.

I'd rather see us put more resources into offensive line than wide receiver, if the opportunity presents itself to add a starting guard.  Omameh and Cann have exceeded my expectations, but a road-grader guard like vintage Vince Manuwai and Chris Naeole sure would be nice.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Ivory as a cap casualty this offseason too, or a slot corner taken high in the draft since it seems Colvin's likely to go somewhere he can start (and we're thin at corner anyway beyond the top three).

[ben says]

So it's easy to say - we just need to grab an elite QB.  It's going to be a helluva lot harder to do.  Those guys aren't cheap.

I am 100% sure I don´t know shit about CAP space or who pays what for whom.

That said, I do read a LOT of these NFL focused sites, from ESPN to CBS Sports to Sports Illustrated, and all of them - literally ALL of them - suggest we´re one of the only teams in the entire league who CAN afford an elite QB (Eli, Cousins, Taylor, etc - elite or not, who knows, but we can afford them).

Not sure how the money side of things will play out but watching Houston and Philly and LAX with their second or first year under the radar QBs makes me think anything is possible...

[ProjectMaximus]

^ Right.  I'm under no illusions that Blake is better than adequate, just mystified that he has somehow become this paragon symbol of terrible quarterbacking among a lot of commentators (while other young QBs are getting their flaws swept under the rug).  I mean national sports commentators, that is, not Metro Jacksonville ones.

Read any feature on Football Outsiders and there's a Blake punchline in there somewhere.  I'm pretty sure he must have murdered the pets of every one of their writers, because it's the only explanation I have for the volume and continuity of vitriol.

Among the AFC, I'd take him over the various Miami QBs, the various Denver QBs, Dalton, Brissett, Savage, Kizer, or McCown.  I'd probably put him on a par with Taylor, Flacco, and the criminally overrated Mariota.  Carr and Rivers haven't been that much better.  Yet any of the national sports sites are acting like it's a joke that he'd be permitted in the postseason at all.  The postseason treated us to a Matt McGloin/Brock Osweiler duel last year.

I completely agree with you through and through. It's all in semantics/definitions but I consider BB to be around #15-20 among QBs in the NFL, and I'm fine with that. Quite simply, it could be worse. As for national writers, it is simply "lazy" journalism. I put that in quotes cause while it is indeed lazy, it's expected and what I would do too. You don't make nuanced and insightful analysis unless you really know what you're talking about, and for many writers they simply don't have the time to know a lot about Blake. So instead just say what everyone else says and you're safe even if it's wrong or turns out to be wrong. I'd do the same thing. 

So it's easy to say - we just need to grab an elite QB.  It's going to be a helluva lot harder to do.  Those guys aren't cheap.

I am 100% sure I don´t know shit about CAP space or who pays what for whom.

That said, I do read a LOT of these NFL focused sites, from ESPN to CBS Sports to Sports Illustrated, and all of them - literally ALL of them - suggest we´re one of the only teams in the entire league who CAN afford an elite QB (Eli, Cousins, Taylor, etc - elite or not, who knows, but we can afford them).

Not sure how the money side of things will play out but watching Houston and Philly and LAX with their second or first year under the radar QBs makes me think anything is possible...

Like I said above, it could be worse. It could be amazing too, if we had a good or especially elite QB, then we'd probably be the best team in the league. But it's much easier said than done. And to me, a worse situation would be paying Brock Osweiler money for Brock Osweiler. I'm intrigued by the notion of paying an elite D to carry you to the promised land instead of an elite QB. Can we get BB to take <10M a year and put all our eggs in the defense, the way other teams do with their QBs (Rodgers, Luck, Brees, Brady, etc)? The concept that you find an elite QB who can carry you to the playoffs every year and then see what happens has been a growing trend for the past 15 years but maybe we can reverse that. If an elite D can get you to the playoffs I'd argue that may be a safer way to contend. Defense is more reliable in the postseason and one injury won't derail an elite D like it would the QB position. And I'm not saying it has to be with BB5, we can draft or find other serviceable, cheaper QBs under the same strategy.

Anyway, maybe this isnt the way to go. I'm just saying it's intriguing.

[Wacca Pilatka]

^ I've seen a couple of articles suggesting the Jaguars are taking a Moneyball-like analytical approach here.

If the entire league is putting its resources in passing offense and speed rushers, counterpunch by putting the majority of your resources in suffocating defense and having a power running game, because the majority of teams are going to be unable to respond to that.  Then you can compete with "lower-cost and serviceable" at quarterback.

Seattle more or less has done this for a number of years, too, though Wilson has been much better than just serviceable.  A miracle worker, really, given the offensive line he's saddled with.  Though his success in turn threatens the resource allocation strategy since his market value is higher than was anticipated.

The problem is trying to keep that defense together.  The difficulty of keeping an entire unit at championship level vs. having one championship level quarterback was a talking point in the Oehser column today, in fact.

[ProjectMaximus]

The problem is trying to keep that defense together.  The difficulty of keeping an entire unit at championship level vs. having one championship level quarterback was a talking point in the Oehser column today, in fact.

haha i saw that and it prompted me to return to this thread to expound on my comments.

As Ozone pointed out, the window for the elite D is likely to be much shorter than that of the elite QB. So fine, ride it as long as we can (4-7 years instead of 10-15) and let's keep drafting QBs. Hopefully when the D drops off we've found that QB and can pay him instead.

[Non-RedNeck Westsider]

and let's keep drafting QBs.

This.

I'm a fan of the theory that you draft a QB every year until you find the right one, and then you continue to draft a QB every year.

You don't have to spend a high pick on one, but there are plenty of solid guys that are found in the mid rounds 3-5.

Wilson (3) Cousins (4) Prescott (4) jump out at me, but there are other guys like Foles (3), Brissett (3), Savage (4). 

Seattle had just given Foles big money when they drafted Wilson.
Cousins was drafted in the same draft as RGIII.
And Dallas had a resurging (yet brittle) Tony Romo.

Hell, the Patriots have drafted Mallet(3), Garappolo(2) & Brissett(3) all in the last 6 years....

For whatever reason we still have Henne backing up one of the most durable QBs in the league.

[Wacca Pilatka]

Agreed.  Even if you don't keep the QBs you draft, sometimes you garner trade equity out of them when another team is enchanted with a fill-in or preseason performance.  As New England did with Garappolo and Mallett, and as the Jaguars famously did with Rob Johnson for the draft pick that turned into Fred.