Hurricane Irma

[Keith-N-Jax]

Hope it does a Matthews

[edjax]

Latest Euro model has it now coming straight up the center of the state pretty much.  I think I saw where they UK one also pretty much in agreement.  Truly worst case scenario. 

[TimmyB]

Latest Euro model has it now coming straight up the center of the state pretty much.  I think I saw where they UK one also pretty much in agreement.  Truly worst case scenario. 

Yeah, just watched a simulation of that model with wind estimates running the length of the state. I wish I hadn't.

We are moving down there in three weeks and we're safe in Michigan, but we're scared s***less watching this.  Not used to stressing things like this.

[Non-RedNeck Westsider]

Latest Euro model has it now coming straight up the center of the state pretty much.  I think I saw where they UK one also pretty much in agreement.  Truly worst case scenario. 

Yeah, just watched a simulation of that model with wind estimates running the length of the state. I wish I hadn't.

We are moving down there in three weeks and we're safe in Michigan, but we're scared s***less watching this.  Not used to stressing things like this.

I've got a friend who moved down from Arkansas a few years ago.  He's used to tornado weather, but he says these hurricanes freak him out more because he has a week or more to 'think about it'...

[TimmyB]

Latest Euro model has it now coming straight up the center of the state pretty much.  I think I saw where they UK one also pretty much in agreement.  Truly worst case scenario. 

Yeah, just watched a simulation of that model with wind estimates running the length of the state. I wish I hadn't.

We are moving down there in three weeks and we're safe in Michigan, but we're scared s***less watching this.  Not used to stressing things like this.

I've got a friend who moved down from Arkansas a few years ago.  He's used to tornado weather, but he says these hurricanes freak him out more because he has a week or more to 'think about it'...

No doubt about that!  It's very steal for us.
  The positive is, we would have been down there already but we decided to save three months of rent and just live in our 5th wheel until the end of September.  I'd probably be one of those poor folks stuck out on 75, trying to get to Atlanta right now.

[I-10east]

I'm no meteorologist by no means, but what exactly is pushing Irma's prediction to the north after it hits South FL? Usually a cold front (or another type of front) or something is involved, but I didn't hear anything about a front clashing with Irma, changing her course. Any chance that this hurricane is gonna go into the Gulf of Mexico, or nah? 

[TimmyB]

I'm no meteorologist by no means, but what exactly is pushing Irma's prediction to the north after it hits South FL? Usually a cold front (or another type of front) or something is involved, but I didn't hear anything about a front clashing with Irma, changing her course. Any chance that this hurricane is gonna go into the Gulf of Mexico, or nah?

There is a large cold front that hugs the Eastern seaboard from Maine all the way down, cuts through Florida about the middle of the state, and then goes all the way to Mexico through the Gulf.  I'd post a picture but my third party hosting site just stopped providing that service for free to me.

[acme54321]

The reason it felt noticably more "fall-y" this morning

[remc86007]

Isn't a direct strike to the bottom of FL a rather good scenario for Jax? It would be significantly weakened by the time it gets to Jax if it goes over land up the state. Worst case for us seems to me to be if it turns north early and remains a cat. 4 and does what everyone thought Matthew would do.

[JaxAvondale]

Isn't a direct strike to the bottom of FL a rather good scenario for Jax? It would be significantly weakened by the time it gets to Jax if it goes over land up the state. Worst case for us seems to me to be if it turns north early and remains a cat. 4 and does what everyone thought Matthew would do.

if the storm went up the middle of the state that would put Jax on the east side of the storm. Also, the warm wetlands in the middle of the state could help the storm maintain strength longer.

[thelakelander]

I've been in Daytona Beach this week for a conference. I'm heading out at 4am in the morning to briefly stop by the condo in Jax and then drive to either Nashville or Birmingham for a few days. Just ran into a guy checking in at the hotel. He was asking me about if the hotel was safe. Evidently, he's a reporter who just got to town. He's selecting to stay at the beach so he can get close to the storm. I told him good luck. This thing is too big of a monster for me to want to risk being caught on a sandbar come Saturday or Sunday.

[Keith-N-Jax]

Cat 3 or worse last thing on my mind would be a story but these reporters live dangerous lives looking for the story of a lifetime

[Gunnar]

Isn't a direct strike to the bottom of FL a rather good scenario for Jax? It would be significantly weakened by the time it gets to Jax if it goes over land up the state. Worst case for us seems to me to be if it turns north early and remains a cat. 4 and does what everyone thought Matthew would do.

if the storm went up the middle of the state that would put Jax on the east side of the storm. Also, the warm wetlands in the middle of the state could help the storm maintain strength longer.

Plus the storm is much wider than Florida, so if it moves up in the middle, the left and right are still over the ocean, so it's only partially over land.

[Gunnar]

I've been in Daytona Beach this week for a conference. I'm heading out at 4am in the morning to briefly stop by the condo in Jax and then drive to either Nashville or Birmingham for a few days. Just ran into a guy checking in at the hotel. He was asking me about if the hotel was safe. Evidently, he's a reporter who just got to town. He's selecting to stay at the beach so he can get close to the storm. I told him good luck. This thing is too big of a monster for me to want to risk being caught on a sandbar come Saturday or Sunday.

Good luck with your drive !
Is traffic already as bad as you read on the news ? Read that it's already very congested in Central Florida and getting gas is becoming harder.

[Gunnar]

Latest Euro model has it now coming straight up the center of the state pretty much.  I think I saw where they UK one also pretty much in agreement.  Truly worst case scenario. 

Yeah, just watched a simulation of that model with wind estimates running the length of the state. I wish I hadn't.

We are moving down there in three weeks and we're safe in Michigan, but we're scared s***less watching this.  Not used to stressing things like this.

Jacksonville actually has a very low risk of getting hit by a major Hurricane (I believe due to the geography as Florida slants west and then in the Jacksonville area the coast starts to slant east again.

According to the NOAA, the return period for a major Hurricane is 40 years in Jacksonville (vs. 14 for Miami).
Wasn't the last major Hurricane to directly strike Jacksonville Dora in 1964 ?

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/jacksonville.htm