Brightline says Tampa is next up

[Brian_Tampa]

http://trn.trains.com/news/news-wire/2017/03/08-brightline-new-ceo

Along with getting a new CEO, Brightline announced that Tampa would be the next city they expand service to. Of course, that will be at least 7 to 10 years out in my estimation. August 2017 is the latest I heard for phase 1 start of operations between WPB and Miami.

[thelakelander]

Pretty cool. There's no telling what's going to go on with CSX, with Harrison becoming the new CEO but I assume they'll target the I-4 median. It also mentions they'll be exploring the feasibility of extending to Jax. It doesn't give a timeline, so there's no telling when actual service would start in either market.  I think we all knew Tampa and Jax were givens, assuming the Miami to Orlando phase is a success. For Tampa and Jax, the pressure will be on these markets to develop efficient local transit networks to support potential regional passenger rail connections.

What's really exciting to me is the idea of this extending to markets outside of Florida. Atlanta seems like a natural market.  The addition of stops north of West Palm Beach is an important element as well.  I wonder what the Treasure Coast's reaction will be to the latest news? The next year or so will be pretty interesting as Brightline's first segment goes online.

[Brian_Tampa]

I have also heard it said that there might be some political calculation for announcing this at this time. By engaging the Tampa Bay area in supporting AAF, it could also make defeating the Treasure Coast easier in Tallahassee by adding the support of Tampa Bay area senators and representatives for AAF.

Edit: I say this as AAF had previously said they would not announce expansion until after phase 2 was successful.

[FlaBoy]

Interesting. ATL would be the big prize. Savannah and Charleston could also be interesting connection up the East Coast.

I am guessing the question to the answer below was something like, "Where do you want to expand next?"

Tampa is Florida's next largest population center. For years we've had an expression of interest from leaders in that marketplace who are more than a little interested in a connection into our service," Reininger says, "So we will be able to research and apply ourselves to that opportunity for sure. And [Florida East Coast Railway] already controls the right-of-way into Jacksonville, so we will start to explore whether that is a feasible and reasonable alternative.

To me that sounds like they are literally just exploring the potential of expanding. Tampa came to mind first but Jacksonville may be a lot more cost effective and easier with FEC rolling right into DT Jax. I would assume they would aim for the same ROW that the High Speed Rail had with stops at Disney, Lakeland, and DT Tampa. They key may be Disney...

[Tacachale]

This is pretty cool. Seems very ambitious, though, considering the Orlando expansion isn't even done. Hopefully (if it's successful) the Jax connection will come along quickly after.

[spuwho]

I have also heard it said that there might be some political calculation for announcing this at this time. By engaging the Tampa Bay area in supporting AAF, it could also make defeating the Treasure Coast easier in Tallahassee by adding the support of Tampa Bay area senators and representatives for AAF.

Edit: I say this as AAF had previously said they would not announce expansion until after phase 2 was successful.

Shrewd move but probably very accurate assessment of the announcement.

[acme54321]

It does seem like this might be more political than anything.  Think about the logistics of getting from Orlando to Tampa vs Cocoa to Jacksonville on track that you already own and operate on.  Tampa is of course a much larger market but it is hard to imagine them expanding there first before Daytona/St. Aug/Jax because the core infrastructure is already there.

[Brian_Tampa]

It does seem like this might be more political than anything.  Think about the logistics of getting from Orlando to Tampa vs Cocoa to Jacksonville on track that you already own and operate on.  Tampa is of course a much larger market but it is hard to imagine them expanding there first before Daytona/St. Aug/Jax because the core infrastructure is already there.

Could be mostly political, but I doubt it. FECI/AAF is in business to make money mainly from development of RE. The 2006 FDOT Florida Transportation Planning Document that I've quoted online here before, I truly believe is AAF's guidebook. That document showed that FDOT determined there were something like 5 times the number of intra-Florida city travellers to/from Tampa Bay area compared to Jacksonville. So the decision to go to Tampa first doesn't surprise me. Although using FECR ROW will be cheaper to get to Jacksonville compared to the cost to build to Tampa, the final decision is always about maximizing profits. I believe they have figured out that Tampa provides a better opportunity for that at this time along with the political considerations in Tallahassee regarding the Treasure Coast opposition.

Edit: another factor might be Tampa's downtown area is undergoing a huge increase in developments both under construction and planned. I think that also attracts AAF to Tampa. Daytona Beach and St Augustine don't have the critical mass of urban development near the FECR that Tampa offers. Also, with regards  to the area around the Prime Osborne convention center in Jacksonville, is there anything similar to what's going on in downtown Tampa?

[Tacachale]

It does seem like this might be more political than anything.  Think about the logistics of getting from Orlando to Tampa vs Cocoa to Jacksonville on track that you already own and operate on.  Tampa is of course a much larger market but it is hard to imagine them expanding there first before Daytona/St. Aug/Jax because the core infrastructure is already there.

Could be mostly political, but I doubt it. FECI/AAF is in business to make money mainly from development of RE. The 2006 FDOT Florida Transportation Planning Document that I've quoted online here before, I truly believe is AAF's guidebook. That document showed that FDOT determined there were something like 5 times the number of intra-Florida city travellers to/from Tampa Bay area compared to Jacksonville. So the decision to go to Tampa first doesn't surprise me. Although using FECR ROW will be cheaper to get to Jacksonville compared to the cost to build to Tampa, the final decision is always about maximizing profits. I believe they have figured out that Tampa provides a better opportunity for that at this time along with the political considerations in Tallahassee regarding the Treasure Coast opposition.

Yeah, probably a bit of column A, a bit of column B. But time will tell. It is certainly very ambitious trying to find a way to build tracks between the Orlando airport and Tampa (wherever in Tampa they go).

I'm also wondering if the local leadership in Tampa has been more receptive than Jax/Daytona/St. Augustine, and is therefore more valuable in getting over the hump of resistance in the Treasure Coast.

[Brian_Tampa]

It does seem like this might be more political than anything.  Think about the logistics of getting from Orlando to Tampa vs Cocoa to Jacksonville on track that you already own and operate on.  Tampa is of course a much larger market but it is hard to imagine them expanding there first before Daytona/St. Aug/Jax because the core infrastructure is already there.

Could be mostly political, but I doubt it. FECI/AAF is in business to make money mainly from development of RE. The 2006 FDOT Florida Transportation Planning Document that I've quoted online here before, I truly believe is AAF's guidebook. That document showed that FDOT determined there were something like 5 times the number of intra-Florida city travellers to/from Tampa Bay area compared to Jacksonville. So the decision to go to Tampa first doesn't surprise me. Although using FECR ROW will be cheaper to get to Jacksonville compared to the cost to build to Tampa, the final decision is always about maximizing profits. I believe they have figured out that Tampa provides a better opportunity for that at this time along with the political considerations in Tallahassee regarding the Treasure Coast opposition.

Yeah, probably a bit of column A, a bit of column B. But time will tell. It is certainly very ambitious trying to find a way to build tracks between the Orlando airport and Tampa (wherever in Tampa they go).

I'm also wondering if the local leadership in Tampa has been more receptive than Jax/Daytona/St. Augustine, and is therefore more valuable in getting over the hump of resistance in the Treasure Coast.

I have heard that Tampa and Hillsborough County leaders have been very receptive to AAF over the last 4 years. I can imagine that local government here is already planning things to help AAF build what they need downtown. Like zoning changes, land swaps, or even buying surplus county land...

[thelakelander]

When I read that article, it doesn't really say when service will begin in either place.  Both are mentioned, so from a political standpoint, there's pandering to politicians in both regions and everything in between.

However, from an implementation and construction process, it will take years to get a line into Tampa. So they could literally begin the process of expanding to Tampa two years earlier than Jax and service actually begin in Jax earlier, simultaneously, or someplace else as part of a more comprehensive future project  It's just too hard to say or speculate either way at this point.

[Brian_Tampa]

When I read that article, it doesn't really say when service will begin in either place.  Both are mentioned, so from a political standpoint, there's pandering to politicians in both regions and everything in between.

However, from an implementation and construction process, it will take years to get a line into Tampa. So they could literally begin the process of expanding to Tampa two years earlier than Jax and service actually begin in Jax earlier, simultaneously, or someplace else as part of a more comprehensive future project  It's just too hard to say or speculate either way at this point.

But then Reininger says this:
"Tampa is Florida's next largest population center. For years we've had an expression of interest from leaders in that marketplace who are more than a little interested in a connection into our service," Reininger says, "So we will be able to research and apply ourselves to that opportunity for sure. And [Florida East Coast Railway] already controls the right-of-way into Jacksonville, so we will start to explore whether that is a feasible and reasonable alternative."

With Tampa, "AAF will research and apply ourselves" I take that as meaning they have decided to start actively doing work to figure out how to get to Tampa. With Jacksonville, "explore whether that is a feasible and reasonable alternative" sounds like they don't know if Jacksonville is doable or not at this time. Seems like for now Tampa is their choice and Jacksonville is a maybe, requiring more calculations/studies on traffic and profitability.

[thelakelander]

^Yes, except Jax is as simple as determining if it is feasible and making minor improvements to existing infrastructure already owned with secured rights to run passenger rail already in place.  Tampa requires ironing out deals with FDOT, securing a station site in Tampa and billions in new infrastructure. The construction process alone will take years. Just look at the delays in getting into Orlando.  The Miami to West Palm stretch will begin service this year and construction of new infrastructure on the Beach Line still hasn't began. So without more timeline details its hard to speculate.  Another thing concerning Jax is the line about Brightline potentially serving more than Florida. If anything materializes on that point, feasibility to Jax won't matter since all the tracks run through it.

[FlaBoy]

It does seem like this might be more political than anything.  Think about the logistics of getting from Orlando to Tampa vs Cocoa to Jacksonville on track that you already own and operate on.  Tampa is of course a much larger market but it is hard to imagine them expanding there first before Daytona/St. Aug/Jax because the core infrastructure is already there.

Could be mostly political, but I doubt it. FECI/AAF is in business to make money mainly from development of RE. The 2006 FDOT Florida Transportation Planning Document that I've quoted online here before, I truly believe is AAF's guidebook. That document showed that FDOT determined there were something like 5 times the number of intra-Florida city travellers to/from Tampa Bay area compared to Jacksonville. So the decision to go to Tampa first doesn't surprise me. Although using FECR ROW will be cheaper to get to Jacksonville compared to the cost to build to Tampa, the final decision is always about maximizing profits. I believe they have figured out that Tampa provides a better opportunity for that at this time along with the political considerations in Tallahassee regarding the Treasure Coast opposition.

Yeah, probably a bit of column A, a bit of column B. But time will tell. It is certainly very ambitious trying to find a way to build tracks between the Orlando airport and Tampa (wherever in Tampa they go).

I'm also wondering if the local leadership in Tampa has been more receptive than Jax/Daytona/St. Augustine, and is therefore more valuable in getting over the hump of resistance in the Treasure Coast.

I have heard that Tampa and Hillsborough County leaders have been very receptive to AAF over the last 4 years. I can imagine that local government here is already planning things to help AAF build what they need downtown. Like zoning changes, land swaps, or even buying surplus county land...

They have been begging for it because Hillsborough and Pinellas can't pull their crap together for anything.

However, Tampa just has a lot more people in Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Pasco who would consider using it. You would also be going through Lakeland I assume which is another sizable population. At the same time, Daytona Beach, St. A, and Jax will be the must easier sell for initial investment. I think they need to see how they will do financially for a bitin what they have. I think the absolute sh*t show of I-4 around Disney to DT Orlando could inspire people to take the train from Tampa for work but not to MCO. In all reality, this is all about tourists so tourism trends will be interesting. Pinellas is killing it as always but you still drop people off in DT Tampa without a way to get to Clearwater Beach or St. Pete Beach except Uber or a cab.

[Brian_Tampa]

@Lakelander

Delays getting to Orlando have been financial in nature (bond market went south) and NIMBYS on the Treasure Coast. AAF has dealt with FDOT and CFX before regarding leases and other legal stuff. If AAF chooses to use 417 to get to I-4 then that really minimizes land acquisition issues. Some small plots of land will need to be bought from private owners near Ybor city. As far as future service north, will CSX or NS allow a Brightline type operation on their primary routes to florida? I thought Reininger meant other single city pair oportunities such as Dallas Houston, Chicago to whereever, etc..