Brightline says Tampa is next up

[Brian_Tampa]

@Flaboy  #13 post

What I want to know, is how this will kick my local politicians into finally dealing with transit issues. Other than spending money on roads. I think this has the potential to change the path of public transit here in Tampa/Hillsborough County. Getting to the beach would cost a fortune, so not sure how to justify that.

[thelakelander]

@Lakelander

Delays getting to Orlando have been financial in nature (bond market went south) and NIMBYS on the Treasure Coast. AAF has dealt with FDOT and CFX before regarding leases and other legal stuff. If AAF chooses to use 417 to get to I-4 then that really minimizes land acquisition issues. Some small plots of land will need to be bought from private owners near Ybor city. As far as future service north, will CSX or NS allow a Brightline type operation on their primary routes to florida? I thought Reininger meant other single city pair oportunities such as Dallas Houston, Chicago to whereever, etc..

Yes, I'd expect financial considerations to impact the roll out of a Tampa service as well.  I also don't think using 417 significantly reduces costs. Much of 417 would have to be rebuilt to accommodate rail. However, going to I-4 via the Beach Line could allow for some cost savings via coordination with the future I-4 Ultimate expansion into Polk County.

NS and FEC already have a pretty strong working relationship. They connect in DT Jax. If Brightline does consider looking outside of Florida, tying into Atlanta would be something I'd keep my eye on. Ocklawaha has hinted on the possibilities of an Atlanta-Miami connection several times over the last few years.

[acme54321]

A high speed train from Atlanta to Miami seems like it would do really well.

[Tacachale]

It does seem like this might be more political than anything.  Think about the logistics of getting from Orlando to Tampa vs Cocoa to Jacksonville on track that you already own and operate on.  Tampa is of course a much larger market but it is hard to imagine them expanding there first before Daytona/St. Aug/Jax because the core infrastructure is already there.

Could be mostly political, but I doubt it. FECI/AAF is in business to make money mainly from development of RE. The 2006 FDOT Florida Transportation Planning Document that I've quoted online here before, I truly believe is AAF's guidebook. That document showed that FDOT determined there were something like 5 times the number of intra-Florida city travellers to/from Tampa Bay area compared to Jacksonville. So the decision to go to Tampa first doesn't surprise me. Although using FECR ROW will be cheaper to get to Jacksonville compared to the cost to build to Tampa, the final decision is always about maximizing profits. I believe they have figured out that Tampa provides a better opportunity for that at this time along with the political considerations in Tallahassee regarding the Treasure Coast opposition.

Yeah, probably a bit of column A, a bit of column B. But time will tell. It is certainly very ambitious trying to find a way to build tracks between the Orlando airport and Tampa (wherever in Tampa they go).

I'm also wondering if the local leadership in Tampa has been more receptive than Jax/Daytona/St. Augustine, and is therefore more valuable in getting over the hump of resistance in the Treasure Coast.

I have heard that Tampa and Hillsborough County leaders have been very receptive to AAF over the last 4 years. I can imagine that local government here is already planning things to help AAF build what they need downtown. Like zoning changes, land swaps, or even buying surplus county land...

They have been begging for it because Hillsborough and Pinellas can't pull their crap together for anything.

However, Tampa just has a lot more people in Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Pasco who would consider using it. You would also be going through Lakeland I assume which is another sizable population. At the same time, Daytona Beach, St. A, and Jax will be the must easier sell for initial investment. I think they need to see how they will do financially for a bitin what they have. I think the absolute sh*t show of I-4 around Disney to DT Orlando could inspire people to take the train from Tampa for work but not to MCO. In all reality, this is all about tourists so tourism trends will be interesting. Pinellas is killing it as always but you still drop people off in DT Tampa without a way to get to Clearwater Beach or St. Pete Beach except Uber or a cab.

Well, it's really less about riders than it is about real estate. The riders are more a way to get people to their developments. Either way, Tampa is going to take a lot of doing for it to even be connectable.

@Lakelander

Delays getting to Orlando have been financial in nature (bond market went south) and NIMBYS on the Treasure Coast. AAF has dealt with FDOT and CFX before regarding leases and other legal stuff. If AAF chooses to use 417 to get to I-4 then that really minimizes land acquisition issues. Some small plots of land will need to be bought from private owners near Ybor city. As far as future service north, will CSX or NS allow a Brightline type operation on their primary routes to florida? I thought Reininger meant other single city pair oportunities such as Dallas Houston, Chicago to whereever, etc..

Yes, I'd expect financial considerations to impact the roll out of a Tampa service as well.  I also don't think using 417 significantly reduces costs. Much of 417 would have to be rebuilt to accommodate rail. However, going to I-4 via the Beach Line could allow for some cost savings via coordination with the future I-4 Ultimate expansion into Polk County.

NS and FEC already have a pretty strong working relationship. They connect in DT Jax. If Brightline does consider looking outside of Florida, tying into Atlanta would be something I'd keep my eye on. Ocklawaha has hinted on the possibilities of an Atlanta-Miami connection several times over the last few years.

Yeah, I can see there being similar pushback as they've faced in the Treasure Coast anywhere else they expand. It's the same issues everywhere, and the same NIMBY tendencies.

[Kerry]

Is there a chance Brightline wants to get to Tampa before SunRail does?

[tufsu1]

Is there a chance Brightline wants to get to Tampa before SunRail does?

SunRail won't be expanding there.  CSX has made it clear that their tracks from the Lakeland area west aren't available.

[Kerry]

Is there a chance Brightline wants to get to Tampa before SunRail does?

SunRail won't be expanding there.  CSX has made it clear that their tracks from the Lakeland area west aren't available.

Thanks, I read several stories a few years ago that SunRail to Tampa was a possibility.  One advantage SunRail has is that it goes to downtown Orlando and is already half way to Daytona.

[Brian_Tampa]

@Lakelander

Delays getting to Orlando have been financial in nature (bond market went south) and NIMBYS on the Treasure Coast. AAF has dealt with FDOT and CFX before regarding leases and other legal stuff. If AAF chooses to use 417 to get to I-4 then that really minimizes land acquisition issues. Some small plots of land will need to be bought from private owners near Ybor city. As far as future service north, will CSX or NS allow a Brightline type operation on their primary routes to florida? I thought Reininger meant other single city pair oportunities such as Dallas Houston, Chicago to whereever, etc..

Yes, I'd expect financial considerations to impact the roll out of a Tampa service as well.  I also don't think using 417 significantly reduces costs. Much of 417 would have to be rebuilt to accommodate rail. However, going to I-4 via the Beach Line could allow for some cost savings via coordination with the future I-4 Ultimate expansion into Polk County.

NS and FEC already have a pretty strong working relationship. They connect in DT Jax. If Brightline does consider looking outside of Florida, tying into Atlanta would be something I'd keep my eye on. Ocklawaha has hinted on the possibilities of an Atlanta-Miami connection several times over the last few years.

Using the Beach Line to I-4 would require alot of private property acquisition if using either the Beach Line all the way from the airport or using the FL HSR route through the Trade Port area west of the airport to get to Beach Line. 417 seems to have more open space either in the median or alongside the expressway on CFX ROW. That's why I think 417 is more doable. Plus it will most likely be faster to complete by not having to obtain private property. AAF probably prefers to deal with as few landowners as possible. Both routes are in play as I've been told that FDOT is preserving the rail ROW in the median of I-4 east to the Beach Line interchange with I-4.

The other thing about Jacksonville expansion is that the additional route is roughly 2X longer than a Tampa extension. Also they are trying to hold travel time down so a 110 mph MAS is really maybe 80mph average or about 2 hours to get to Cocoa. And another 2+ to Miami. Tampa requires 1 hour to get to Orlando maybe less if 125mph running can be maximized.

[thelakelander]

Is there a chance Brightline wants to get to Tampa before SunRail does?

SunRail won't be expanding there.  CSX has made it clear that their tracks from the Lakeland area west aren't available.

Thanks, I read several stories a few years ago that SunRail to Tampa was a possibility.  One advantage SunRail has is that it goes to downtown Orlando and is already half way to Daytona.

My firm was a part of a study looking at extending Sunrail from DeLand into Daytona, a few years back.  If I were a gambling man, I'd put money on Brightline reaching Daytona before Sunrail ever does. Right now, Sunrail generates less ridership than the Skyway, despite costing hundreds of millions more and serving a much larger metropolitan area.  Those for counties are also going to have to figure out how to fund their share of annual O&M costs when the state stops funding it, in a few years.

[FlaBoy]

If there were an expansion to ATL one day, that would be a huge win for Jax. But it would also have a solid chance at being profitable long term. Miami/Ft Lauderdale/WBP and ATL are going to be the 7th and 8th largest markets in the country soon. Orlando is the most visited place by tourists in the USA. Miami is the #5 most visited. I can only think of positive things for Jax with a higher speed rail line that was MIA-FTL-WPB-ORL-JAX-ATL.

[thelakelander]

The Orlando segment is delayed for another 2.5 years minimum. So if it gets off the ground, passenger service into Orlando won't start until 2020:

Service between South Florida and Orlando International Airport was slated to begin by year-end. But at least two and half years have since been tacked on to the original timetable.

Michael Reininger, former president of Brightline and now executive director of Brightline parent company Florida East Coast Industries, said Tuesday that the West Palm Beach-to-Orlando portion of the train project, referred to as Phase II, needs additional permits. A concrete financing plan is not yet in place either. Once those to-do's are checked off, the real work begins.

"As a practical matter, there's about 30 months of construction that needs to be done," Reininger said. "We won't start that construction until we finish the permitting and get the financing put in place."

http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2017/03/08/brightline-installs-new-ceo-reveals-2-5-year-delay.html

[FlaBoy]

Interesting. With all those problems getting to MCO, I can only imagine the issues getting all the way to Tampa.

[thelakelander]

As Brian_Tampa said, probably a good 10 years, assuming no delays. Given the distance, you could be looking at two to three years alone for construction, after getting through ROW acquisition, design, financing, permitting and political football.  The Miami-West Palm Beach segment went quick because the ROW and infrastructure was pretty much already in place.

[Brian_Tampa]

As Brian_Tampa said, probably a good 10 years, assuming no delays. Given the distance, you could be looking at two to three years alone for construction, after getting through ROW acquisition, design, financing, permitting and political football.  The Miami-West Palm Beach segment went quick because the ROW and infrastructure was pretty much already in place.

In a way I am glad it will take that long to get here. Maybe by then, Tampa Bay will finally have a decently funded public transportation system under construction instead of endless studies and plans that go nowhere. But honestly, if they get to Orlando then the next 85 miles to Tampa should be easier in every way. There won't be the rabid NIMBY opposition as seen in the Treasure Coast and the ROW will be along a very busy 6 lane I-4 interstate that everybody here knows is horrible to travel. And by then, if the Tampa extension is built that means the Orlando to Miami route is a winner making money for the investors. Since AAF is a new and untested business model, there is understandable concern at this time before any results are known.

[ProjectMaximus]

There's a handful of people on the CD forums who speculate that the objective of Brightline is to fail as a passenger rail line so that FECI will be allowed to takeover with its freight trains. Like the entire concept is a ruse to simply upgrade and increase freight service.

Those of you who understand the business, why is this a ridiculous theory? Or is it actually possible?