The Secret Scam of Streetcars

[CCMjax]

Having recently moved to DC, I will say I was surprised at how utterly unwilling choice Metrorail riders are to use a bus for any reason. Americans' prejudice against anything other than fixed line, dedicated right of way transit is a stark reality. I'm quite curious how a "gold-level" BRT system would fare here.

At least in DC, the idea of a bus feeder system for fixed-transit seems more notional than actual. The city is of a scale that the vast majority of desirable neighborhoods are within walking distance of a Metro stop. In most sprawl-based cities, barring some unforeseen spigot of capital funding opening up, the only viable route to choice ridership is Japan-like TOD where the transit provider is also the real estate developer.

I bring all this up in a streetcar thread as a rebuke to many of the current US streetcart/LRT projects that are often just more expensive buses that can't maneuver around traffic. Even in Portland, I saw no reason to use their system as walking was easy and Uber only slightly more expensive for longer trips.

When I lived in Chicago I didn't notice any unwillingness by anyone to take the bus except when of course an "L" stop was within walking distance, then it is much faster to take the train.  The advantage of the Chicago "L" is that it is an elevated subway and does not get caught up in traffic, thus usually the fastest option during rush hour.  The other thing to note is that parking anywhere near downtown Chicago or DC is incredibly expensive.  This is another factor that forces people to take mass transit, it is not only the fastest option but it is also the cheapest option.  As long as property values in downtown Jacksonville are low, parking cheap, and driving relatively easy, most people will not commute via mass transit.  This is why when things start picking up and more people populate the core and it gets congested it is not the best solution to just widen the road, the best solution in urban cores is to invest in mass transit.  Jacksonville needs to incentivize smart development along the transportation corridors in and around downtown (Riverside Ave, North Main, Hendricks, North San Marco Blvd and Atlantic from Hendricks through St. Nicholas to get ridership up.  There is a serious lack of modern or renovated urban apartment/loft options on these corridors for a city of a million people.  Get the density up in those areas and people will ride.  Seriously, the only options south and east of the river are suburban style apartments far away from downtown which are going like hot cakes because there are no other options!

[goldy21]

With self-driving cars on the horizon, cities need to take a really hard look at building additional infrastructure for light rail and streetcars. There will soon be better solutions that utilize our existing roads in a whole new way.

https://www.yahoo.com/autos/s/uber-ceo-tesla-sell-half-million-autonomous-electric-110000053.html

[spuwho]

The western cities, Seattle included, are in my opinion the most progressive cities in the country.  Most of these cities are largely new and post-war cities, yet they are still developing towards being real mixed-mode, high density, high quality of life cities.

Seattle's metro today is 4-5x the population it was during WWII.  Meaning it's a new city.  It had only about 50% more people at the start of the war than Jacksonville had in its present day city limits (i.e. 200-300K people roughly), with not much more in the "metro".

Yet Seattle today is more urban than all but the top few cities in America.  It has gone down a different path...

Count Portland, Denver, San Diego, Boise, and even Salt Lake City amongst those cities that are doing things differently.  Metro Portland isn't that much bigger than Jax in the grand scheme of things, but it feels A LOT larger (many many times larger) without feeling all that congested and hectic.

Having lived in Seattle....geographics had a huge role in the development of their urbanism.

And dont think the eastern sprawl onto the Sammamish Plateau hasnt been without its problems. Like Los Angeles they will be bumping up against the Cascade Mountains in due time.

For what its worth, Sound Transit announced another quarter of rider growth and has been holding hearings on how they can expand further. Only the streetcar service was flat and they expect that to change after new fare rules are implemented.

[I-10east]

Thanks for the upload.

[ProjectMaximus]

Count Portland, Denver, San Diego, Boise, and even Salt Lake City amongst those cities that are doing things differently.  Metro Portland isn't that much bigger than Jax in the grand scheme of things, but it feels A LOT larger (many many times larger) without feeling all that congested and hectic.

Can you expound on Boise? I'm curious about that place but haven't had an opportunity to visit.

Having recently moved to DC, I will say I was surprised at how utterly unwilling choice Metrorail riders are to use a bus for any reason. Americans' prejudice against anything other than fixed line, dedicated right of way transit is a stark reality.

This is true. From my experience, riding buses in NYC and CHI was not preferred but not specifically avoided...if it was more convenient then people rode it. In DC I'm pretty certain I never once rode the bus. Perhaps because it wasnt practical/convenient, but possibly also because it isn't a free transfer like CHI and NYC. It is an extra $1.25. (Of course the fare system for the DC Metro is different from CHI and NYC, charging by distance rather than per ride)

With self-driving cars on the horizon, cities need to take a really hard look at building additional infrastructure for light rail and streetcars. There will soon be better solutions that utilize our existing roads in a whole new way.

Yeah, this is kinda hard to imagine but we could be looking at a vastly different horizon in just 10 years. If autonomous vehicles really do become commonplace then there could be two drastic shifts: personal car ownership could be nearly non-existent and parking structures/lots could entirely become a thing of the past. Crazy.

[thelakelander]

With self-driving cars on the horizon, cities need to take a really hard look at building additional infrastructure for light rail and streetcars. There will soon be better solutions that utilize our existing roads in a whole new way.

https://www.yahoo.com/autos/s/uber-ceo-tesla-sell-half-million-autonomous-electric-110000053.html

Most who will be able to afford a self driving car probably aren't using public transit frequently anyway. I'm still waiting to see how people who can barely afford a home mortgage or rent are going to pay for a self driving car.  Seems like a situation of the haves and have nots.  There's social justice issues all over this that many are paying attention too. In the end, public transit will still have a place.

[vicupstate]

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/biz-columns-blogs/development/article27017140.html

Charlotte's streetcar line is a small stretch of rails, just 1.5 miles, but big hopes are riding on it.

Tuesday's opening of the Gold Line has redevelopment plans moving again on Elizabeth Avenue. Grubb Properties, which has been assembling land along the streetcar line for more than a decade, told me this week the company plans to build up to 550 new apartments at the corner of Elizabeth Avenue and Torrence Street.

The development, part of a long-awaited plan to transform one of Charlotte's historic main streets, will also include space for new shops and restaurants.

Gold Line supporters hope that's just the beginning. The streetcar line is meant to eventually run from Johnson C. Smith University through uptown towards Central Avenue, creating an east-west linkage to complement the north-south Blue Line light rail.

[The Knight Foundation last month gave a $1.5 million grant to help kick-start the effort to revitalize the Beatties Ford Road/West Trade Street corridor. Charlotte Center City Partners will lead the effort, hiring a director for the Historic West End district.

In a statement, the Knight Foundation said: "The largest driver of new opportunities for the district will be the CityLynx Gold Line streetcar."

The first phase of the streetcar cost $37 million, with a federal grant paying $25 million and the city kicking in $12 million. The city is expected to pay $75 million of the $150 million cost of the second phase of the project, which could open in 2019. The other half could be paid with a federal grant. A divided City Council last month approved spending $7.7 million for the next phase of design work.

[ProjectMaximus]

With self-driving cars on the horizon, cities need to take a really hard look at building additional infrastructure for light rail and streetcars. There will soon be better solutions that utilize our existing roads in a whole new way.

https://www.yahoo.com/autos/s/uber-ceo-tesla-sell-half-million-autonomous-electric-110000053.html

Most who will be able to afford a self driving car probably aren't using public transit frequently anyway. I'm still waiting to see how people who can barely afford a home mortgage or rent are going to pay for a self driving car.  Seems like a situation of the haves and have nots.  There's social justice issues all over this that many are paying attention too. In the end, public transit will still have a place.

The expectation is that self-driving cars will replace car ownership. So really you're talking about displacing taxi drivers with self-driving taxis, which are actually also supposed to make them cheaper to operate and lower the fares. Again, pretty crazy to imagine but people in the industry expect it to happen at least in the next two decades, perhaps much sooner. From the technological standpoint that's a very conservative estimate. What would take the longest are the safety regulations, as well as general public mindset to adopt such a shift. Like I said, I know some folks in real estate (in Asia) who are long-range already planning for this transformation.

Also just an aside, the technology within the autonomous vehicle should only cost a few thousand dollars.

[thelakelander]

We'll see. Call me skeptical on the timeline of mass implementation in the US. Nevertheless, it would seem they'd impact roadway expansion and construction moreso than the need for mass transit in the core of cities. We'd end up with a bunch of highways that have way more capacity than needed.

[Ocklawaha]

Actually, streetcars are faster and have more brake power on grades then buses do, but if you saddle them into the same role as a modern block by block city bus in traffic then I agree... what's the point? They (including the older models) have acceleration rates that will leave a modern bus in their dust, (ever push down the peddle on an electric golf cart?). As Lake has said, streetcars and LRT are virtually the same animal with some slight variations for faster boarding and higher speeds. Even those old streetcars can run entrained and most of the original companies, including Jacksonville, St. Augustine and Fernandina Beach used both power cars and 'trailers' for peak loads.

One of the main differences in the implementation of rail compared to BRT is typically the need to punch a fixed line through the central business district. You've got to have tracks and there is usually no free space except in a roadway to do so. Once the streetcar/LRT reaches the edge of the CBD it can usually be built upon railroad RofW, high power line easements, drainage easements etc.. Many of these one, two and three mile starters are being done with that core idea in mind and an eye to future extensions into the burbs.

BRT on the other hand can operate on existing roadways, but it can't do so efficiently and arguments that say it can are simply bogus. For BRT to approach the efficiencies of rail it must also have dedicated/exclusive roadways, both in downtown and in the burbs. Over time the built in savings in O&M with rail will make even the best of the BRT systems appear to be expensive toys.

Driverless cars leaves me laughing. Yes you can do it on well known streets, but as long as the average google map or your onboard navigation can't find that new addition, or the old dirt road, it ain't going to 'universally' happen.

[ProjectMaximus]

We'll see. Call me skeptical on the timeline of mass implementation in the US. Nevertheless, it would seem they'd impact roadway expansion and construction moreso than the need for mass transit in the core of cities. We'd end up with a bunch of highways that have way more capacity than needed.

I'm pretty skeptical as well. But I have lived just long enough now to experience some dramatic things happening that were hard to imagine beforehand.

As to your point about capacity and transit, I think you are right. I hope that that's what will keep some semblance of balance between larger capacity mass transit and smaller vehicles (autonomous or not). I saw a study that explained that more vehicle-miles are logged with ridesharing/taxis despite a reduction in number of vehicles. That's because these "taxis" have to drive around to pick people up. If, for instance, every single person always had a vehicle with them, they would drive exactly how far they travel and then leave their cars parked. With ridesharing, you reduce the number of vehicles but those fewer vehicles are covering much longer distances driving back and forth in addition to driving passengers where they want to go. So, more vehicle-miles probably means more road capacity necessary. Mass transit is the only way to reduce the toll on the environment and infrastructure. Of course, uber and others are trying to use technology to also increase carpooling within ridesharing...so again who knows what will happen?

[thelakelander]

Ock, it seems like many really aren't familiar with the various types of fixed transit, how much they really cost and the different ways various technologies can be operated. Most streetcar conversations I have, typically end up with someone claiming they are slow and stop at every other block. In reality, they don't have to be if you don't want them to be.

[thelakelander]

I'm pretty skeptical as well. But I have lived just long enough now to experience some dramatic things happening that were hard to imagine beforehand.

As to your point about capacity and transit, I think you are right. I hope that that's what will keep some semblance of balance between larger capacity mass transit and smaller vehicles (autonomous or not). I saw a study that explained that more vehicle-miles are logged with ridesharing/taxis despite a reduction in number of vehicles. That's because these "taxis" have to drive around to pick people up. If, for instance, every single person always had a vehicle with them, they would drive exactly how far they travel and then leave their cars parked. With ridesharing, you reduce the number of vehicles but those fewer vehicles are covering much longer distances driving back and forth in addition to driving passengers where they want to go. So, more vehicle-miles probably means more road capacity necessary. Mass transit is the only way to reduce the toll on the environment and infrastructure. Of course, uber and others are trying to use technology to also increase carpooling within ridesharing...so again who knows what will happen?

I'd be interested to see how much the fare on these riderless "taxis" will be. We've got a good portion of our transit dependent population that struggles to come up with $1.25 to $2.50 one-way trip fares. Without a massive government forced switch or big time subsidization of the concept, it will be nearly impossible for an all out switch.

[simms3]

Actually, streetcars are faster and have more brake power on grades then buses do, but if you saddle them into the same role as a modern block by block city bus in traffic then I agree... what's the point? They (including the older models) have acceleration rates that will leave a modern bus in their dust, (ever push down the peddle on an electric golf cart?). As Lake has said, streetcars and LRT are virtually the same animal with some slight variations for faster boarding and higher speeds. Even those old streetcars can run entrained and most of the original companies, including Jacksonville, St. Augustine and Fernandina Beach used both power cars and 'trailers' for peak loads.

One of the main differences in the implementation of rail compared to BRT is typically the need to punch a fixed line through the central business district. You've got to have tracks and there is usually no free space except in a roadway to do so. Once the streetcar/LRT reaches the edge of the CBD it can usually be built upon railroad RofW, high power line easements, drainage easements etc.. Many of these one, two and three mile starters are being done with that core idea in mind and an eye to future extensions into the burbs.

BRT on the other hand can operate on existing roadways, but it can't do so efficiently and arguments that say it can are simply bogus. For BRT to approach the efficiencies of rail it must also have dedicated/exclusive roadways, both in downtown and in the burbs. Over time the built in savings in O&M with rail will make even the best of the BRT systems appear to be expensive toys.

Driverless cars leaves me laughing. Yes you can do it on well known streets, but as long as the average google map or your onboard navigation can't find that new addition, or the old dirt road, it ain't going to 'universally' happen.

My experience is that an aggressive bus driver will accelerate and slow down much faster than a streetcar.  A streetcar may be physically capable of accelerating faster, but why should it?  Also, disclosure, most of the buses I ride are trolley buses attached to wires.  Maybe that has something to do with it.  Some days you appreciate the faster acceleration, other days it's almost enough to make you nauseous.  I rarely find myself sitting in a bus in a larger city - whereas in Jax you could be the only one on the bus, and that way you get a forward facing seat towards the middle, allowing for maximum ride comfort, in Boston or SF or Seattle at best you're getting a backward facing seat in the back or a side seat up front, likely standing though.  In order to let people off, other people need to step out of bus.  This whole notion that acceleration/deceleration and loading/unloading times with streetcars or buses goes out the window when they are that crowded.

Also, in terms of cost, I would think depending on the city there could be a huge cost difference between true BRT and LRT.  For instance, here in SF they are building two parallel lines of roughly similar length, only about 0.5-0.75 miles apart from each.  One is an LRT subway that costs over $1Bn per mile, and the other one is full on separated BRT that will total to about $800M.  Depending on how you discount back public transit or calculate return on cost, I don't see the O&M of the BRT catching up to the sheer upfront cost of the LRT anytime soon.

And RE: navigation/maps for driverless cars.  I'm just going to chalk it up that you are unaware of the technologies coming out of Silicon Valley

[thelakelander]

^How much would the BRT cost if it were a subway?