Election Results Recap for May 19, 2015

[Cheshire Cat]

The votes have been cast and the election decided.  Exhausted candidates and their supporters will all be experiencing some sort of election hangover.  I know I am glad the seats have been decided but the politics does not end with the election.  In order to understand where we are going we must first take a look at the results of yesterdays election, so here we go.


Race for Mayor was decided with Lenny Curry elected as our new Mayor.

Brown garnered    48.69%     Total votes  98,349
Curry                   51.31%                      103,626

Race decided by    5,277 votes


Race for Sheriff was decided with Mike Williams elected as our next Sheriff.

Williams garnered   51.53%    Total votes   104,125
Jefferson                48.47%                        97,925

Race decided by     6,220 votes

These were the top two seats on the ballot.  I will soon post the results of the other races.

[Cheshire Cat]

The results for the Council at Large seats are as follows":

Group 1 At Large

Anna Lopez Brosche garnered    55.22%  Total votes   108,696
Kimberly Daniels                       44.78%                      88,840

Race decided by   19,856 votes


Group 3 At Large

Tommy Hazouri  garnered   55.34%   Total votes    110,696
Geoff Youngblood                44.78%                        88,840

Race decided by   21,228  votes


At Large Group 5

Newby garnered   51.19%  Total votes   100,136
Pittman                48.81%                      95,498

Race decided by  4,638  votes

[Cheshire Cat]

The results for the regular District Council Seats are as follows:


District 1

Morgan garnered    52.24%  Total votes 7,396
Anania                   47.76%                   6,762

Race decided by      634 votes

District 2

Ferraro garnered   57.91%  Total votes   9,676
King                     42.09%                     7,033

Race decided by 2,643 votes


District 4

Day garnered    36.96%  Vote total  4,203
Wilson              63.08%                  7,170

Race decided by 2,967 votes


District 7

Gaffney garnered  50.98%   Total votes  6,528
Spencer Jr.           49.02%                     6,276

Race decided by 252 votes

[Cheshire Cat]

Who did the voters decide on for all of the open seats in March and May.  The results are as follows:


Mayor:                     Lenny Curry      (Republican)

Sheriff:                     Mike Williams   (Republican)


Supervisor of Elections:    Mike Hogan   (Republican)

Property Appraiser:          Jerry Holland (Republican)

Tax Collector:                  Michael Corrigan (Republican incumbent/ran unopposed)

At Large Council:

1 Anna Lopez-Brosche   (Republican)
2 John Crescimbini        (Democrat incumbent)
3 Tommy Hazouri          (Democrat)
4 Greg Anderson           (Republican incumbent)
5 Sam Newby                (Republican)


City council District Seats:

1 Joyce Morgan    (Democrat)
2 Al Ferraro          (Republican)
3 Aaron Bowman  (Republican)
4 Scott Wilson      (Republican)
5 Lori Boyer         (Republican incumbent ran unopposed)
6 Matt Schellenberg  (Republican incumbent)
7 Reggie Gaffney  (Democrat)
8 Katrina Brown   (Democrat)
9 Garrett Dennis   (Democrat)
10 Reggie Brown  (Democrat)
11 Danny Becton  (Republican)
12 Doyle Carter    (Republican incumbent)
13 Bill Gulliford     (Republican incumbent ran unopposed)
14 Jim Love          (Republican incumbent)

[Wacca Pilatka]

Thanks, Diane!

[Cheshire Cat]

When the new council and office holders are sworn in next July.  We will see a total of 14 seats with new leadership.

The top tier of local government not including the council will be all Republican.

The city council including at large will represent  7 Democrats and 12 Republicans.


Clearly the bulk of Duval leadership is going to remain Republican in a city with more registered Democrats than Republicans.  This is an important fact when it comes to understanding the balance of power in Jacksonville.

Of course all these positions were the result of a "unitary" election process but the fact remains in Jacksonville that party lines remain strong with a bit of movement by the more moderate in both parties.  Also of note is the hard fact that there is no one who ran outside of the top two parties who landed a seat.  Duval still totally functions on the Dem/Rep paradigm on the surface.  What is unknown is how many in both party are moderate in their views and it will be the more moderates who will greatly impact the political landscape of our city over time but all indicators is that in Duval at least, this will be a slow process.

[Cheshire Cat]

Thanks, Diane!

You are so welcome.  I have some more information and insights coming up.  Stand by. 

[spuwho]

It may have been the way it was quoted, but I didnt like Guilliford's comments on having new council members.

It came off like the new members were idiots and had never been in a board meeting in their life.

Also I hope they do some good COJ 101 and 102 with the new members.

There have been huge collective knowledge gaps in council decision-making.

Here is hoping that member prep is taken more seriously than in the past.

[Know Growth]

Happy Birthday!  -From Lenny Curry

Yep,today received in the mail a Happy Birthday post card from Lenny Curry.   3428 Beach Blvd.


I simply must acknowledge this savvy campaign effort, which utilized public records to access voter's birth dates that fell within the campaign cycle.
Is Mr. Curry really My Buddy!.....will I receive a card next year?

[vicupstate]

it seems apparent that the citywide races were not really decided by party loyalties.

I think a better and more comprehensive description would be "the vast majority voted based on their party affiliation, except where doing so would result in an embarrassment to the city".

The vote totals between the non-wack-job Democrats were nearly identical, whether Mayor, Sheriff or Council. The same is true with the Republicans.   

[Cheshire Cat]

The votes have been cast and the election decided.  Exhausted candidates and their supporters will all be experiencing some sort of election hangover.  I know I am glad the seats have been decided but the politics does not end with the election.  In order to understand where we are going we must first take a look at the results of yesterdays election, so here we go.


Race for Mayor was decided with Lenny Curry elected as our new Mayor.

Brown garnered    48.69%     Total votes  98,349
Curry                   51.31%                      103,626

Race decided by    5,277 votes


Race for Sheriff was decided with Mike Williams elected as our next Sheriff.

Williams garnered   51.53%    Total votes   104,125
Jefferson                48.47%                        97,925

Race decided by     6,220 votes

These were the top two seats on the ballot.  I will soon post the results of the other races.

So Brown vs Curry was decided by the second smallest margin of any of the citywide races?


Only Pittman vs Newby was decided by fewer, and that was between two candidates that most of the city doesn't know.

Compared to the 19k and 21k spread between Brosche vs Daniels and Hazouri vs Youngblood respectively. (the first in favor of the Republican and the second in favor of the Democrat) it seems apparent that the citywide races were not really decided by party loyalties.

Again the moderates decided this election.

Pretty exciting.

You are correct.  What I want people to take a look at are the sizable differences in votes cast in the main and council at large seats compared to the smaller districts. How solid a campaign is run along with outreach and platform that resonates with voters can definitely impact the race outcome.  Looking at the district races shows this dynamic more clearly.

Lets look at a few of district races as an example and for discussion. 

District 7 is a good one to start with and gives us some insight into the waffling influence of Corrine Brown on local politics.  I want to focus on the districts but will mention at this juncture the fact that Corrine pulled out all of the stops in her last minute efforts to get Alvin Brown re-elected down to hosting a Selma Sunday she failed to rally the needed votes.  This deserves some thought on the part of voters and especially Democrats.

In District 7 We had a well know person in Reggie Gaffney who has been a political personality and player in the world of Corrine Brown and Jacksonville for years.  This election cycle in spite of Gaffney's history with Brown she chose to back newcomer George Spencer Jr.  Something many might not know is that Reggie Gaffney was a "Republican" most of the time he and Corrine worked together.  He garnered millions in dollars for business efforts he was attached to.  He and Corrine were at the heart of scandal when some of these deals were exposed.  Gaffney himself was also found to have bilked Medicare for funds over seven figures his brother bilking the same agency out of 113,000.  Gaffney goes on name recognition in political races and his association with Corrine only grew his influence but that influence had started to fail him. Apparently not enough to keep him from winning this race in spite of Corrine backing her new guy Spencer.  Looks like she built him up a bit too solidly and even her quick picks failed to pull the needed votes to Spencer.  Lots of folks were hoping to see Spencer take this seat believing in a new beginning for their district.  They may have been betting on an illusion.  Spencer was hand picked by Corrine Brown for a reason.  He is an accountant and an attorney for about three years who is willing to play by Brown's political rules.  He had flown to DC to visit with Corrine and she also put money into his campaign.  I personally question the motives of Spencer, Gaffney's are clear and self serving.  I think Spencer's goals were also self serving to a large degree.  He was criticized for being absent at key points in the campaign process.  He excused his absence by saying his personal businesses kept him too busy.  If that is so and he did not have time to be available to campaign, how much time would he have put into actually appearing at council meetings and working to the goals of the people? We will not find that out in the next council cycle.  To my view this district was one where the person winning would come with an agenda that reached far beyond the people they represent.  The district elected a compromised leader in Gaffney as it stands and they would be wise to remain aware of the bills and legislation he associates himself with at all times and get any promises from him in writing.  I know this sounds harsh but the facts of his time in politics and personal dealings to date in Jacksonville are themselves harsh. As far as the Gaffney/Spencer district debate, those in attendance called it a debacle with Gaffney calling for the exorcism of Satan from the room.  Good luck District seven.  I for one will be watching Gaffney and his dealings when he takes office.  The above are my personal insights on this race which are a combination of facts, personal insight and candidate research.

[Cheshire Cat]

see above.

The republicans who won were far from the Right of their party.

And the ran against democrats that were far away from the left of their party.

You are mostly right about the republicans who were elected not all being hard right, however Doyle Carter is as far right as they come and Schellenberg is not far behind him especially when it comes to GLBT rights.  Lenny Curry may in fact prove himself not to be hard right in action as a mayor however his entire campaign from digs about Hillary Clinton to Obama along with the props given him from the likes of Texas nutter Rick Perry and anti Cuba, anti immigration Marco Rubio and Let's not forget Jeb Bush, the guy who thinks religious people indeed should have the right to discriminate against gays was all geared to appeal to the hard right voter.  I voted for Mike Williams as sheriff in spite of his political endorsements because he has already demonstrated who he is and how he leads in positions of authority in the JSO and he is a genuinely fine man.  Curry touted his GOP affiliations to the hilt again looking to get the far right vote.  My hope is that he will indeed embrace the statement he made about one city one Jacksonville going forward.  It is also my hope that the presence of John Delaney is his support will to some degree indicate words of wisdom and influence coming from Delaney to Curry about the HRO as well as racial discrimination in this city. As far as the returning Republican council members besides Carter, seem to be open minded thinkers. Again these are my takes on the issue.

[Cheshire Cat]

In the Alvin Brown race, apparently Rusty Mead, who had formerly been a part of the LGBT coalition, was encouraging people to not vote for mayor, and I think that was a factor.

If Alvin had simply embraced and publicly met with the LGBT community that would have given him another couple of thousand votes.

Kim Scott was a factor in this election.

Calivin Burney was a factor as well (something that was made vividly clear to us last night at the Mike Williams victory party)

The treatment of Theresa Price hurt him.

Refusing to answer Delores Weavers phone calls after he became mayor cost him.

But I think no other issue cost him as many votes as the HRO.

He pissed off Republican straight allies and LGBT people alike by treating the issue as though it was a conference of death eaters and The Gays were just another name for he who shall not be named.

If I had to pick a single issue that it boiled down to for Alvin it would be the HRO and his weird non answers after confronted about it.

It was more influential on the race than Curry's campaign was, I suspect.

In the end Stephen, Browns refusal to answer the HRO question did impact him but the real reason Brown lost is that he was a weak mayor, short on leadership and big on hype.  Brown lost because he did not govern competently and the people knew it.

[Cheshire Cat]

yeah, i pretty much view the concerted republican effort behind Curry as a colossal failure that boiled down to GOTV and single issue voters on the HRO.  If the mighty republican machinery was going to exert its influence it was this race where they backed an insider that represented the right wing of the party.

The roar was barely a whimper, and Alviin went down in the final analysis with self inflicted wounds.

The local and State Dem parties are weak and dysfunctional.  I know this statement will irk lots of my friends but it's the truth.  Until Dems are willing to face down their weakness as a party and divisiveness within the party they will never gain and sustain the desired influence in Jacksonville. The local Republican party is also quite divisive but they still have the money and power to lock arms and get their folks elected.

[Cheshire Cat]

i can see how you would think that, but now that its over, i think that he was actually a capable administrator.  Much better than Peyton had been.  I wonder if you remember the actual chaos with Sam Mousa (the most competent public servant the city has ever had) and Walt Bussells that ended in the loss of hundreds of millions of the city's reserves (and screwed the pension)?

Brown got constructively out of the way, like a true republican would approve of doing.

Just like Brown didn't really win against Hogan, Hogan lost the election, Curry certainly wasn't given the nod by the election deciding moderates over his competence.  It was Alvin's to lose and he did.

There was a real feeling that his Jesus Christ, Lord and Savior, Hallelujah business during his concession was a subtle fuck you to the LGBT voters that defected.  (not my feeling, but the stated interpretation of others throughout the night and today)

I also understand and respect your view Stephen.  I am serious about that.  I thought all of this through and was very conflicted in my final decision and vote.  I voted Brown but am not devastated by a Curry win.  Brown's closing comments last night, all that praise Jesus stuff was his normal tendency to be a preacher.  He has been heavily indoctrinated by his beliefs as have so many current and previous elected officials.  Religiosity should have not place in government or politics.  Our forefathers had that right.