Election Results Recap for May 19, 2015

[Cheshire Cat]

It may have been the way it was quoted, but I didnt like Guilliford's comments on having new council members.

It came off like the new members were idiots and had never been in a board meeting in their life.

Also I hope they do some good COJ 101 and 102 with the new members.

There have been huge collective knowledge gaps in council decision-making.

Here is hoping that member prep is taken more seriously than in the past.

There is some serious preparation in governing and ethics that the newly elected will go through.  I did not hear Bill's statement but there is always a learning curve for newly elected officers.  Always has been always will be.  It has the most impact at the level of Mayor though.    My guess is that Curry has a lot of folks surrounding him that will shorten his learning curve in office.  I think his biggest surprise will be the reality that you can't run the city like a business.  That takes some getting used to for private sector business folks.

[Cheshire Cat]

At Hamburger Mary's apparently there was a huge cheer when Kim Daniels got defeated last night.

Karrissa Wade delivered a heartfelt speech to the (giant) crowd that was assembled there.

I cheered too even though I was home alone.  So happy to see this woman's political attachments to Jacksonville end here and now. Must have been all that witchcraft worked against her that did it. LMAO  Mark my words, she will blame her loss on Satan and witches.  As far as I know she made no congratulatory call to Anna Brosche either.  I make it a policy not to personalize the actions of politicians but cannot do so with Rick Scott or Kimberly Daniels.  I don't like their politics or their personalities and beliefs.  My shortcoming I know and I make no excuses for this view. 

[Cheshire Cat]

Here is a very cool map and voter breakdown by all precincts provided by the Times Union.  Click link to view.
http://static.jacksonville.com/files/mayormap/

[mtraininjax]

Yep, as predicted, Curry worked the beaches and CRUSHED Brown with 62.5% of the vote there, winning all 13 precincts in Atlantic Beach, Neptune and Jacksonville Beach.

Whereas Bishop carried District 1404, 1413 and 1415 in March, Curry was able to bag 1404, which shows that people were not buying what Bishop sold the final 8 weeks.

http://static.jacksonville.com/files/mayormap/

Just like Brown didn't really win against Hogan, Hogan lost the election

After 4 years, was that really hard to say?

[Jimmy]

I'm glad to see the undervotes in the Mayoral contest were fewer than the margin.  That's about all I'll say about any strategy on the part of anyone to swing the election or send some kind of message by leaving the race un-voted.

I don't think the Mayor's religious statements last night had anything to do with the HRO or the LGBT community.  He often makes passionate (and slightly awkward) appeals to the Almighty during his public remarks.  The OGC is still working on the comparative study of anti-discrimination laws on the books elsewhere.  This great new council we've elected, and the new Mayor, will get a thorough primer on the issues surrounding the HRO.

I won't deny that the LGBT community flexed its growing political muscle last night.  Our most vocal council candidate got more votes than anyone.  And our most vocal opponent on the Council was sent packing in epic fashion.  We picked up the seat of our second most vocal opponent.  Four of our endorsed candidates got to where we needed them to be last night in part thanks to our door-knocks, phone calls, mail, and money.  We built relationships through the whole election cycle that will make our next HRO campaign more polished and much more solid.

Mike Williams will make an excellent Sheriff.  And Mr. Curry will give us, hopefully, Mayor Delaney's third term.  Not a bad place to start come July 1.

[mtraininjax]

I refuse to believe that you are actually as stupid  drunk  oblivious as this post seems to make you sound.

Stop it, I might have to break out in a Mayor Brown Religious revival speech, if you keep up these sentimental remarks.

[Scarlettjax]

I really, truly hope that the new council, mayor and sheriff will work together to mend some of the riffs occurring over the past few years and unite for the good of our city.  We have a chance to improve things but it will only happen if we can collaborate instead of compete. 

Getting past the party lines - as it appears the voters did - will help a lot in that regard.

[Kay]

In the Alvin Brown race, apparently Rusty Mead, who had formerly been a part of the LGBT coalition, was encouraging people to not vote for mayor, and I think that was a factor.

If Alvin had simply embraced and publicly met with the LGBT community that would have given him another couple of thousand votes.

Kim Scott was a factor in this election.

Calivin Burney was a factor as well (something that was made vividly clear to us last night at the Mike Williams victory party)

The treatment of Theresa Price hurt him.

Refusing to answer Delores Weavers phone calls after he became mayor cost him.

But I think no other issue cost him as many votes as the HRO.

He pissed off Republican straight allies and LGBT people alike by treating the issue as though it was a conference of death eaters and The Gays were just another name for he who shall not be named.

If I had to pick a single issue that it boiled down to for Alvin it would be the HRO and his weird non answers after confronted about it.

It was more influential on the race than Curry's campaign was, I suspect.

So cops didn't like Burney?  Didn't realize they frequented the world of planning.

[edjax]

Yep, as predicted, Curry worked the beaches and CRUSHED Brown with 62.5% of the vote there, winning all 13 precincts in Atlantic Beach, Neptune and Jacksonville Beach.

Whereas Bishop carried District 1404, 1413 and 1415 in March, Curry was able to bag 1404, which shows that people were not buying what Bishop sold the final 8 weeks.

http://static.jacksonville.com/files/mayormap/

Just like Brown didn't really win against Hogan, Hogan lost the election

After 4 years, was that really hard to say?

Of course your boy crushed even more in that area of town you love to bash in Mandarin at over 69% with more voters.

[Tacachale]

In the Alvin Brown race, apparently Rusty Mead, who had formerly been a part of the LGBT coalition, was encouraging people to not vote for mayor, and I think that was a factor.

If Alvin had simply embraced and publicly met with the LGBT community that would have given him another couple of thousand votes.

Kim Scott was a factor in this election.

Calivin Burney was a factor as well (something that was made vividly clear to us last night at the Mike Williams victory party)

The treatment of Theresa Price hurt him.

Refusing to answer Delores Weavers phone calls after he became mayor cost him.

But I think no other issue cost him as many votes as the HRO.

He pissed off Republican straight allies and LGBT people alike by treating the issue as though it was a conference of death eaters and The Gays were just another name for he who shall not be named.

If I had to pick a single issue that it boiled down to for Alvin it would be the HRO and his weird non answers after confronted about it.

It was more influential on the race than Curry's campaign was, I suspect.

So cops didn't like Burney?  Didn't realize they frequented the world of planning.

they don't but lobbyists frequent anyplace that winning candidates celebrate.

Or anyplace with an open bar.

[thelakelander]

In the Alvin Brown race, apparently Rusty Mead, who had formerly been a part of the LGBT coalition, was encouraging people to not vote for mayor, and I think that was a factor.

If Alvin had simply embraced and publicly met with the LGBT community that would have given him another couple of thousand votes.

Kim Scott was a factor in this election.

Calivin Burney was a factor as well (something that was made vividly clear to us last night at the Mike Williams victory party)

The treatment of Theresa Price hurt him.

Refusing to answer Delores Weavers phone calls after he became mayor cost him.

But I think no other issue cost him as many votes as the HRO.

He pissed off Republican straight allies and LGBT people alike by treating the issue as though it was a conference of death eaters and The Gays were just another name for he who shall not be named.

If I had to pick a single issue that it boiled down to for Alvin it would be the HRO and his weird non answers after confronted about it.

It was more influential on the race than Curry's campaign was, I suspect.

So cops didn't like Burney?  Didn't realize they frequented the world of planning.

To me, it's quite simple. I don't think Brown being in support of HRO would have made a significant difference in the outcome. Curry was a better candidate than Hogan and was effective in getting those who stayed home four years to come this time around. This is one of the most conservative cities of its size in the country. Brown barely won (surprisingly) four years ago. Hogan did everything he could to scare the wits out of everyone but tea partiers and he still barely lost.

Curry obviously didn't scare the bejesus out of moderates. Looks like he got most of Bishop's moderate votes as well. In my case, I ended up voting Brown but really didn't lose sleep worrying about the results or waste energy getting involved in the debates because, at the end of the day, there's not much difference between Brown or Curry. Either way, Jax will be Jax. The economy is continuing to improve and there's a level of tactical urbanism in the city, that's pulling things in a positive direction, regardless of who's in city hall. 4 years ago, I don't believe that was the case with Hogan's platform and the economy in general. We would have been in real trouble with the platform he was running.

But Republicans were far more interested in this year's campaign than they were in May 2011 when Mike Hogan, the Republican standard-bearer, lost to Brown. Curry attracted about 6,400 more Republicans to the polls than Hogan did.

In the end, Curry beat Brown by 5,285 votes.

Michael Binder, an assistant professor of political science at UNF, said Brown benefited four years ago from moderate Republicans rejecting Hogan and landing in Brown's column. This time, they moved back to the Republican candidate, giving Curry the edge.

"In places like the Beaches that maybe are more moderate, they went with Curry this time heavily," Binder said.

Full article: http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2015-05-20/story/how-did-lenny-curry-win-mayoral-race-republican-vote-came-out-force

[vicupstate]

In the Alvin Brown race, apparently Rusty Mead, who had formerly been a part of the LGBT coalition, was encouraging people to not vote for mayor, and I think that was a factor.

If Alvin had simply embraced and publicly met with the LGBT community that would have given him another couple of thousand votes.

Kim Scott was a factor in this election.

Calivin Burney was a factor as well (something that was made vividly clear to us last night at the Mike Williams victory party)

The treatment of Theresa Price hurt him.

Refusing to answer Delores Weavers phone calls after he became mayor cost him.

But I think no other issue cost him as many votes as the HRO.

He pissed off Republican straight allies and LGBT people alike by treating the issue as though it was a conference of death eaters and The Gays were just another name for he who shall not be named.

If I had to pick a single issue that it boiled down to for Alvin it would be the HRO and his weird non answers after confronted about it.

It was more influential on the race than Curry's campaign was, I suspect.

So cops didn't like Burney?  Didn't realize they frequented the world of planning.

To me, it's quite simple. I don't think Brown being in support of HRO would have made a significant difference in the outcome. Curry was a better candidate than Hogan and was effective in getting those who stayed home four years to come this time around. This is one of the most conservative cities of its size in the country. Brown barely won (surprisingly) four years ago. Hogan did everything he could to scare the wits out of everyone but tea partiers and he still barely lost.

Curry obviously didn't scare the bejesus out of moderates. Looks like he got most of Bishop's moderate votes as well. In my case, I ended up voting Brown but really didn't lose sleep worrying about the results or waste energy getting involved in the debates because, at the end of the day, there's not much difference between Brown or Curry. Either way, Jax will be Jax. The economy is continuing to improve and there's a level of tactical urbanism in the city, that's pulling things in a positive direction, regardless of who's in city hall. 4 years ago, I don't believe that was the case with Hogan's platform and the economy in general. We would have been in real trouble with the platform he was running.

But Republicans were far more interested in this year's campaign than they were in May 2011 when Mike Hogan, the Republican standard-bearer, lost to Brown. Curry attracted about 6,400 more Republicans to the polls than Hogan did.

In the end, Curry beat Brown by 5,285 votes.

Michael Binder, an assistant professor of political science at UNF, said Brown benefited four years ago from moderate Republicans rejecting Hogan and landing in Brown's column. This time, they moved back to the Republican candidate, giving Curry the edge.

"In places like the Beaches that maybe are more moderate, they went with Curry this time heavily," Binder said.

Full article: http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2015-05-20/story/how-did-lenny-curry-win-mayoral-race-republican-vote-came-out-force

I think your election analysis is spot on, but I agree with the article that if Brown had taken a stand on HRO, he would have at least gotten closer. It would have boosted his base turnout a bit and made him look less wishy-washy, which might would have let him hold some moderate voters that he had last time.

I disagree somewhat on the importance of the election though.  The mayor can either create momentum (Delaney) or eliminate it (Peyton) when it comes to urban issues.  JAX is already decades behind and can't afford to piss away another eight years. Like electing Brown and Peyton before him, Curry is a real crap shoot choice. It may turn out good or even great, but it could go the other way too, and by extension, so could the issues we care about on this forum. 
 

[thelakelander]

^Oh, I agree that the mayor's election is important. But in this particular case, neither guy was head and shoulders above the other. Jax isn't going to fall further behind or get further ahead with either guy holding the office. For the most part, from what I could tell, their positions were pretty similar across the board....when it came to the things that the mayor can actually address.

With that said, can any Curry insiders encourage the team to find a way to get Bill Killingsworth back to Jax!

[Tacachale]

The way I see it, it wasn't Brown's antipathy toward the HRO or any other single issue that did him in. Rather, they were symptoms of the prevailing mindset and actions that cost him the election. If he hadn't been so weak on the leadership and management end, he would have surrounded himself with better people and listened to his top supporters. If he had surrounded himself with better people and listened to his top supporters, he wouldn't have been so weak on the budgets, the pension, crime and other major issues (including the HRO). Then he wouldn't have lost Rummell, the Civic Council, the Chamber, and others, and he would have been very hard to beat.

Brown clearly understood that he wasn't going to win reelection with the same 97k votes that got him in in 2011 - another Rep candidate wasn't going to lose as many supporters as Hogan. He knew he had to build support, but he targeted the wrong group. He courted the Tea Party vote with his anti-tax stance, his avoidance of nearly every Democrat issue and individual (including the president), his cozying up to Governor Scott, and his opposition to the HRO. But it turns out that group wasn't going to turn for a Democrat in mass, and meanwhile Brown's actions ended up turning off a lot of Democrats and moderates. The strategy was a wash, and he ended up with about the same number of voters he got last time, while Curry, not being Hogan, got by him with 103k votes.

[Tacachale]

I agree it's partly a matter of perception, but again, if he had governed... differently, he wouldn't have lost, for instance, Peter Rummell and lot of other people.

On the HRO, I agree, taking that up would have mitigated the Tea Party stances. But by the same token, I believe that if Curry had come out for the HRO, and possibly a few other "moderate" issues, he also would have carried the election away. There's a limit to how much of that he could do without alienating the hardcore conservatives, but a a few Nixon in China-style tweaks would have made it difficult to beat him.