Arash Kamiar: The Curry Campaign is Fear Mongering

[jbliii]

The data in the article stops at 2013, so it misses the fact that crime went up in 2014 and (especially) in the first quarter of 2015. The more recent data is just too new to be reflected in the sources referenced in the article. Shootings in particular are way up in 2015, on track to eclipse 2014 by a massive margin.

JSO's own data stops in 2014 and their reported data to FDLE was last in 2013.

No, it doesn't. The 2014 figures are included in the Sheriff's Report on Violent Crime and Manpower. They use the same Uniform Crime Report figures the other sources do, so the numbers will be basically the same. The FBI already has part of the 2014 figures up.

Arash's article is... incomplete. I'll have a lengthier response to this later.

The graphs in the article stop at 2013 - that's what I was referencing. You can validate the 2015 increase in shootings by going directly to crime report data. By its nature recent crime report data is less detailed and more prone to change (i.e., not all reports are charged crimes), but the spike in 2015 relative to the last couple of years is real.

I agree with the writer's broader point, though, that the way Curry has gone after this issue is misleading and ignores the broader context of the 20-year trend. Reductions in crime are never as well publicized as increases in crime.

[Tacachale]

Sorry for the delay in responding.

Arash, you say that while Curry (accurately) cited the Sheriff's Report on Violent Crime and Manpower, you're using other sources, including the Federal Bureau of Justice Statistics report. You don't say that in fact, both sources are using the same figures from the Uniform Crime Report (UCR) data. There are two differences I can see: you're including some crimes from the Beaches that the Sheriff's Report omits, and more significantly, as others have said, the BJS has incomplete data for 2014, while the Sheriff's Report has the figures. Leaving out 2014 is an inexplicable oversight.

The 2014 numbers don't look good. Murders went up to 96 from 93 in 2013 and 71 in 2011. Rapes shot up to 479 from 452 in 2013 and 350 in 2011. Robbery, which you don't really get into, was actually down, while aggravated assault was up. Looking at the UCR data, violent crime has, in fact, trended up since 2011, in the figures and percentages reported by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the Sheriff, and Curry. These statements accurately reflect the reported trends in violent crime during Mayor Brown's tenure.

The article removes the figures from their context as well. Violent crime was on the rise prior to the creation of the Jacksonville Journey under Mayor Peyton in 2009. From that point, violent crime started a serious decline that continued into 2011. However, the budget for Jacksonville Journey has dropped from $30 million in 2009 to $2.1 million this year (not entirely due to Brown, but he's been in charge of the last four budgets). Additionally, dozens of cops have been cut, many of them due to Brown (the debate the exact number continues elsewhere). Brown actually proposed cutting 300 more officers. Unsurprisingly, violent crime has been up during each year. Additionally, as jbliii has said, it appears the trend is continuing this year as well. If you don't believe we've got a serious crime problem on our hands, you must be living in a different city.

Are Curry's statements negative? Yes. Are they "fear-mongering"? Maybe, but no worse than Brown's claims that Curry will "turn back the clock" on race relations, among other things he and his operatives have said. Are they false? No.

This was a solid effort at tackling a difficult subject, but the reporting is disappointing.

[tufsu1]

^ question about the rape figures.....does anybody think that numbers have increased because more people are reporting the crime in recent years...and if so, how is that reflected in the statistics?

[Non-RedNeck Westsider]

Just another nugget to ponder regarding all of the crime in general:  All of the numbers reported are based off of the charge at the time of arrest and not conviction.  I wonder if there's any correlation of a directive (spoken or unspoken) to initially charge the crimes high and then let the courts decide?  Is there any way to compare the charges v/s the convictions?

It's confusing.  Although Angela Corey took charge of the SAO in '09 and is known as being really tough on charges, but because the murder #s dropped substantially when/right after she took office I wonder if there's any way to compare policy before and after.

[Non-RedNeck Westsider]

^ question about the rape figures.....does anybody think that numbers have increased because more people are reporting the crime in recent years...and if so, how is that reflected in the statistics?

First hit on google:

UCR Program Changes Definition of Rape
Includes All Victims and Omits Requirement of Physical Force

In December 2011, FBI Director Robert S. Mueller, III, approved revisions to the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program's 80-year-old definition of rape. As approved, the UCR Program's definition of rape is "Penetration, no matter how slight, of the vagina or anus with any body part or object, or oral penetration by a sex organ of another person, without the consent of the victim." The revised definition is the collaborative effort of the FBI's Criminal Justice Information Services (CJIS) Advisory Policy Board (APB), which is made up of representatives from all major law enforcement organizations, and staff from the national UCR Program with input from the Office of the Vice President of the United States, the Department of Justice's Office on Violence Against Women, and victim advocacy groups, such as the Women's Law Project.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/cjis-link/march-2012/ucr-program-changes-definition-of-rape

The 'spike' doesn't occur until year '12 to '13.

[Tacachale]

^ question about the rape figures.....does anybody think that numbers have increased because more people are reporting the crime in recent years...and if so, how is that reflected in the statistics?

First hit on google:

UCR Program Changes Definition of Rape
Includes All Victims and Omits Requirement of Physical Force

In December 2011, FBI Director Robert S. Mueller, III, approved revisions to the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program's 80-year-old definition of rape. As approved, the UCR Program's definition of rape is "Penetration, no matter how slight, of the vagina or anus with any body part or object, or oral penetration by a sex organ of another person, without the consent of the victim." The revised definition is the collaborative effort of the FBI's Criminal Justice Information Services (CJIS) Advisory Policy Board (APB), which is made up of representatives from all major law enforcement organizations, and staff from the national UCR Program with input from the Office of the Vice President of the United States, the Department of Justice's Office on Violence Against Women, and victim advocacy groups, such as the Women's Law Project.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/cjis-link/march-2012/ucr-program-changes-definition-of-rape

The 'spike' doesn't occur until year '12 to '13.

Interesting. That explains the biggest spike. It still jumped again from 452 in 2013 to 479 in 2014, after the new definition was adopted.

^ question about the rape figures.....does anybody think that numbers have increased because more people are reporting the crime in recent years...and if so, how is that reflected in the statistics?

That would have been convenient, but even just the 6% jump from 2013-2014 tracks with the overall rise in violent crime.

[TheCat]

Tachahale, I'm till going through numbers...

based on my very limited review of crime trends, crime spikes and declines at similar levels throughout the country. If Jacksonville is experiencing a spike, are similar increases happening throughout Florida, the South, the country?

[TheCat]

Also, do you think that an influx of people can lead to an increase in crime?

[Non-RedNeck Westsider]

That would have been convenient, but even just the 6% jump from 2013-2014 tracks with the overall rise in violent crime.

I'm going to go out on a bit of a limb here and it kind of wraps around my previous comment:

Just another nugget to ponder regarding all of the crime in general:  All of the numbers reported are based off of the charge at the time of arrest and not conviction.  I wonder if there's any correlation of a directive (spoken or unspoken) to initially charge the crimes high and then let the courts decide?  Is there any way to compare the charges v/s the convictions?

It's confusing.  Although Angela Corey took charge of the SAO in '09 and is known as being really tough on charges, but because the murder #s dropped substantially when/right after she took office I wonder if there's any way to compare policy before and after.

Again, we're talking about 'reported' crimes and not convictions.  And in today's world, it's not inconceivable to consider how easy it is that what begins as a potential simple battery 911 call from a concerned neighbor that ends up becoming domestic abuse, rape, possession of illegal firearm, etc... because of what the police are trained to do when writing their reports and the origination charge upon arrest.

I'm not trying to minimize any of the offenses, and I'm not suggesting that any of it is standard practice, I'm only asking a question and am extremely curious if there's a way to actually link any of the above together. 

Can the small fluctuations in crime (6% in my mind is insignificant) be attributed more to police practice or to actual increases in crime?

Case in point, how has the decriminalization of marijuana affected the overall crime numbers in Washington, Colorado, etc.?

[Tacachale]

Tachahale, I'm till going through numbers...

based on my very limited review of crime trends, crime spikes and declines at similar levels throughout the country. If Jacksonville is experiencing a spike, are similar increases happening throughout Florida, the South, the country?

Well, you're the reporter here, but no, it doesn't look like it:

FDLE Annual Report: Florida's crime rate drops while Jacksonville's rises
By The Times-Union Thu, May 21, 2015 @ 8:38 am | updated Thu, May 21, 2015 @ 9:16 am

Florida's crime rate dropped 4.9 percent last year as compared to 2013, according to a new annual report released by the Florida Department of Law Enforcement. The total number of crimes fell 3.6 percent from last year which translates into 25,476 fewer crimes than in 2013, FDLE reported.

In Jacksonville the total crime index was up 2.8% over 2013, according to FDLE.

...

http://jacksonville.com/news/crime/2015-05-21/story/floridas-crime-rate-drops-while-jacksonvilles-rises

Also, do you think that an influx of people can lead to an increase in crime?

No clue, but I'm pretty sure our population has been growing pretty steadily for a long time.

[Tacachale]

I'm curious what you mean with this statement:

2011 is an interesting year. That year we lost 4 percent of our population, around 36,000 people, the first "significant" decrease since 1995 (there was a .49 percent decrease from 2008 to 2009).

According to the Census estimates, there were 823,291 people in Jax in 2010 and 829,065 in 2011. That's a *gain* of 5774. Similarly, the population grew from 809,891 in 2008 to 813,518 in 2009.

Even if it were true, it's hard to tell what your point is with this statement.

[Cheshire Cat]

Just a suggestion.  If we are going to break down the crime info maybe a new thread would be worthwhile so folks don't miss it thinking it's campaign talk. 

[Tacachale]

Yeah, it's annoying that just responding in this thread circulates the piece (and its title) even more, but this is the logical place to critique the stats, or rather Arash's claims about them. Perhaps we could start a new thread, or the mods could alter this title.

[Cheshire Cat]

Yeah, it's annoying that just responding in this thread circulates the piece (and its title) even more, but this is the logical place to critique the stats, or rather Arash's claims about them. Perhaps we could start a new thread, or the mods could alter this title.

Agree, good info will be missed.

[TheCat]

Tacahale, sorry for my very delayed response:

Arash, you say that while Curry (accurately) cited the Sheriff's Report on Violent Crime and Manpower, you're using other sources, including the Federal Bureau of Justice Statistics report. You don't say that in fact, both sources are using the same figures from the Uniform Crime Report (UCR) data. There are two differences I can see: you're including some crimes from the Beaches that the Sheriff's Report omits, and more significantly, as others have said, the BJS has incomplete data for 2014, while the Sheriff's Report has the figures. Leaving out 2014 is an inexplicable oversight.

I included all of Duval County in my report. It would be "inexplicable" if I included JSOs numbers, which does not include all of Duval County.

My apologies for not saying that both data sets are "UCR" numbers. Although JSO is the reporting agency I feel more comfortable using the data once it has been published by FDLE and UCR directly.

BUT...

Let's look at JSO's report.

So, the Curry campaign felt like Brown was at fault for the increase in crime from 2013 to 2014. Is he equally responsible for bringing about the record lows in crime during his tenure? That's what we experienced during Brown's admin.

The "Violent Crime Total" lowest years

2011: 5,182
2012: 5,189
2013: 5,246
2010: 5,469
2014: 5,853

Of the top lowest "violent crime total" numbers, Brown was in office four out of those five years. Three years, if you don't want to count 2011.

When you look at "murder" we had a record low number, 71 killed, in 2011. The last time the number of murders in our city was in the 70s was in 2001, 75 were killed.

This is the report from UCR from 1985 – 2012.

http://www.ucrdatatool.gov/Search/Crime/Local/RunCrimeJurisbyJurisLarge.cfm

For whatever reason the data analysis tool is not updated to include 2013 and 2014 but you can add the JSO numbers from the report.

Even if you look at 2014, our violent crime rate is low. It has increased from 2013 but it is, again, very low. 2014, is the 5th lowest year of violent crime since 1985.

And, it was accomplished with less police.