Arash Kamiar: The Curry Campaign is Fear Mongering

[Metro Jacksonville]

Arash Kamiar: The Curry Campaign is Fear Mongering



Mayoral candidate Lenny Curry claims that Jacksonville’s crime rates are exploding under Mayor Alvin Brown. In actuality, violent and property crimes are at the lowest they have been in 18 years.

Read More: http://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2015-may-arash-kamiar-the-curry-campaign-is-fear-mongering

[InnerCityPressure]

My favorite thing that has happened this election season was last Thursday.  Two well-meaning twenty-something females were knocking on doors for Curry in Riverside.  They ended up on my porch, which was automatically hilarious to me, because I have an AB sign in my front yard.  I happened to have the three smear flyers (pictured in article) from Curry sitting on my side table, because I was just complaining about them to a friend.  Needless to say, they had thrown these girls into enemy territory and had not prepared them at all!

I'd say the more troubling thing is that Brown was not prepared with this info at the debate.  Where was he?  Why wasn't he all over Curry about his bad stats?  I think this is a big issue for a lot of people and, apparently, Alvin could have swiftly laid it to rest. 

[jaxlore]

Thanks for calling him out on this I am sick of looking at these damn 8x10 mailers I keep getting in the mail my friend even got a birthday card from him. There has to be some serious out of town money in this election.

[Non-RedNeck Westsider]

Arash,

Great job on following the numbers and putting the piece together.  There is one flaw with your research that I thought I may had pointed out in some of my posts.

While there is an appearance of doing more with less with regards to the number of officers, there is no data in our possession that actually tells us how many boots are on the ground.  The numbers that we're using are based off of budgeted positions in the JSO.  Those positions may or may not be filled, and they may or may not be administrative or field officers.  Unfortunately, without looking at JSO's actual force #s, we have no way of knowing.

Otherwise great piece.  I really wish more people would start following the massive amounts of breadcrumbs that are left behind every story read.

Edit:  and the actual police force #s might be a moot point.  Regardless of how many were actually on the force, the crime numbers have definitely dropped.

[Non-RedNeck Westsider]

This report from the JSO website has nice chart showing the changes made to force due to budget concerns.

http://www.coj.net/departments/sheriff-s-office/docs/police-services/annual-budget-fy-14.aspx

As you will see, there are positions opened, removed, and shifted every year.  This is important to note because of the extreme attention the number "147" has gotten.  In no way, shape or form have 147 officers been released.  The only ones documented for release were the CCOs and they were funded through a grant anyhow and never reflected on the general funding budget to begin with.

To accurately assess the JSO, you would have to know how many officers are actually on payroll.  That's the only way we'll ever receive a clear picture of how these crime numbers shake out and how much of their proposed budget is just accounting fluff.  i.e. - do they figure all of the budgeted positions when reporting salary and pension expenditure?

There's always more questions, lol.

[jbliii]

The data in the article stops at 2013, so it misses the fact that crime went up in 2014 and (especially) in the first quarter of 2015. The more recent data is just too new to be reflected in the sources referenced in the article. Shootings in particular are way up in 2015, on track to eclipse 2014 by a massive margin.

I agree, though, that Lenny Curry's campaign is glossing over the fact that crime decreased across the board between 1992 and 2013. That trend has been happening with violent crime all over the country despite the fact that when polled Americans typically believe that crime is increasing. It's one of the great disconnects between what Americans believe and what's really happening in their communities.

[Non-RedNeck Westsider]

The data in the article stops at 2013, so it misses the fact that crime went up in 2014 and (especially) in the first quarter of 2015. The more recent data is just too new to be reflected in the sources referenced in the article. Shootings in particular are way up in 2015, on track to eclipse 2014 by a massive margin.

JSO's own data stops in 2014 and their reported data to FDLE was last in 2013.

The main point being is that using selective data and preying off of media sensationalism isn't exactly telling the truth.  Not that there isn't some truth in there, but a lie by omission is still a lie.

[Tacachale]

The data in the article stops at 2013, so it misses the fact that crime went up in 2014 and (especially) in the first quarter of 2015. The more recent data is just too new to be reflected in the sources referenced in the article. Shootings in particular are way up in 2015, on track to eclipse 2014 by a massive margin.

JSO's own data stops in 2014 and their reported data to FDLE was last in 2013.

No, it doesn't. The 2014 figures are included in the Sheriff's Report on Violent Crime and Manpower. They use the same Uniform Crime Report figures the other sources do, so the numbers will be basically the same. The FBI already has part of the 2014 figures up.

Arash's article is... incomplete. I'll have a lengthier response to this later.

[Non-RedNeck Westsider]

No, it doesn't. The 2014 figures are included in the Sheriff's Report on Violent Crime and Manpower. They use the same Uniform Crime Report figures the other sources do, so the numbers will be basically the same. The FBI already has part of the 2014 figures up.

Arash's article is... incomplete. I'll have a lengthier response to this later.

Looking forward to it.  My first glance at the FBI UCR reports only shows to 2013 as well.

http://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/crimestats

[MusicMan]

A Republican politician, using fear as a campaign tool? 


He sure looks at lot like "W" in that photo.  Now that ought to scare everybody.................

[TheCat]

The data in the article stops at 2013, so it misses the fact that crime went up in 2014 and (especially) in the first quarter of 2015. The more recent data is just too new to be reflected in the sources referenced in the article. Shootings in particular are way up in 2015, on track to eclipse 2014 by a massive margin.

JSO's own data stops in 2014 and their reported data to FDLE was last in 2013.

No, it doesn't. The 2014 figures are included in the Sheriff's Report on Violent Crime and Manpower. They use the same Uniform Crime Report figures the other sources do, so the numbers will be basically the same. The FBI already has part of the 2014 figures up.

Arash's article is... incomplete. I'll have a lengthier response to this later.

I look forward to it.

[DuvalHusky]

Curry has done an outstanding job appealing to his base. I expect that tomorrow he will be "rewarded" for his efforts as Rick Scott has twice been rewarded. It's a conservative, white, Southern base that is watching its power erode with each passing cycle. Tapping into that fear, effectively messaging around it and exploiting the insecurities of it are a craft that modern GOP operatives have perfected. What's sad is that Willie Horton tactics still work in the GOP.

Independent of this election, if you are a Republican, I invite some hard introspection into the company you keep politically and why. I hope some of you find this kind of pandering to the worst nature of people repugnant and demand change within your ranks. I know pointing out moral flaws of partisans often only makes partisans more adversarial however America needs a strong two party system based on differing visions for the future and not fear mongering.         

[Non-RedNeck Westsider]

.... however America needs a strong two party system based on differing visions for the futur...       

On this I call absolute BS and would be willing to discuss it in another thread. 

[tufsu1]

And I guess that it doesn't matter to them AT ALL that they managed to slander the performance of the Sheriff's Office while trying to win against Alvin at any cost.  Least of all the truth.

let me correct you here....

And I guess that it doesn't matter to them AT ALL that they managed to slander the performance of the Sheriff's Office while at the same time gladly accepting an endorsement from the current sheriff!

[Non-RedNeck Westsider]

And I guess that it doesn't matter to them AT ALL that they managed to slander the performance of the Sheriff's Office while trying to win against Alvin at any cost.  Least of all the truth.

let me correct you here....

And I guess that it doesn't matter to them AT ALL that they managed to slander the performance of the Sheriff's Office while at the same time gladly accepting an endorsement from the current sheriff!

To be fair, I'm pretty sure the JSO is loving the fact that someone is helping further the perception of the poor job they're supposedly doing due to a lack of (budgeted) officers (that could potentially be) on the street. 

It's kind of tough prove the need for a budget increase when you're already doing a great job with what you have, don't you think?