San Marco Publix project still alive

[thelakelander]

2016 or 2017 opening means they'd still have to break ground soon. It will take over a year to build a project that size.

[mtraininjax]

If someone creates a Farmer's Market on the site, does that count?

[blfair]

1) I'll believe it when I see it.
2) I sure as hell hope to see it -- it would be awesome to have a grocery store in walking distance.

[Ocklawaha]

So many times I've picked up a book at the San Marco Book Store, a coffee at Starbucks and still find myself craving the requisite 'Dark Chocolate with Whole Hazelnuts, Ritter Sports Bar... So get the damn store open already!

[MusicMan]

At this point I'd rather see a small Trader Joe's (25,000 sq ft) and a Grassroots in this location. Would be much cheaper to build and would still fill the need for a grocery store nicely.

[tufsu1]

At this point I'd rather see a small Trader Joe's (25,000 sq ft) a

that's actually huge for Trader Joe's...most of their stores are drug store size (12,000-15,000sf)

[simms3]

I think a Publix would better serve the neighborhood.  IMO, better to start with a full size/full service grocer, then start branching off into niches.  San Marco could support a Publix...I think the scary thing for any major grocery brand is that Publix in Lakewood/San Jose and in Riverside, and now the Fresh Market in Riverside (and not necessarily any growth in between).


All the more reason for Jax to increase its [very] low density (which is why there is a dearth of stores for any given geography).  Midtown Atlanta, for instance, has 2 Publixes in its center (within a quarter mile of each other), with 2 more only half a mile away (Atlantic Station and Ansley Park), a Whole Foods a mile away (with a new food market with stalls and booths across from that in the Ponce City Market), and a rumored boutique grocer to open on Peachtree in its heart.

And that is at "only" ~7-10,000 ppsm over that area (with a couple spikes over 1-2 Census Tracts to ~20,000 ppsm).  But that's roughly twice to three times the density of Jacksonville's developed areas.  Goes to show, Jax needs more infill - A LOT more.  Sad that Duval isn't really growing and infill is happening at a breathtakingly slow rate, but it's also about what kind of person NE FL is attracting, and it isn't the stereotypical Millennial/urbanite.

Having a bunch of outspoken Clay Yarboroughs isn't helping any matters.  Could be a large part of the reason Jax is developed the way it is, and why there is no Publix/grocer in San Marco.  Literally, a bunch of Clay types in the city could be why there is no grocer in San Marco.  Dwell on that.

[jaxjaguar]

In St Pete there are 2 Publix literally across the street from each other. They're barely 900 ft apart haha. Also in Gainesville there's 4 Publix, a trader Joe's and a sweet bay all within a mile of each other along 39th. I don't see any reason for Publix to not build in San Marco. It's a huge untapped market. The previously proposed housing above the store would be an excellent addition, especially if it was affordable rental property. Not only would Publix benefit from the added residents, but all of the business in the area would see a boost.   

[simms3]

^^^The demographics/population may certainly be there.  5-10,000 people are needed to support a full service grocery store of 40-50,000 SF, on average.  This will be different for different markets.  Some markets need as many as 15,000 people, and the average size might increase to what is a consistent average across the country today - 60-70,000 sf.

As of the 2010 Census, there were 11,668 people in San Marco from the South Bank down to Emerson, and including St. Nicholas over to Beach/Atlantic split and slightly beyond (3 Census Tracts in total).  For everyone's knowledge, the weighted average density of these 3 tracts was 3,206 people per square mile (the densest Tract 3,445 ppsm).

Given that the closest Publixes AND Winn Dixies are down at Phillips, over at University/Atlantic, and over in Riverside/DT, there is definitely a "hole".

But still, what may give grocers and retailers hesitation are deeper dives into the demographics.  Anecdotally, the density is VERY VERY low.  Grocers clearly have a habit of opening fewer stores in Jacksonville and trying to drive very high volume that way.  Walmart is a big market share for groceries, and goods, and for good reasons as the city/metro is seen as a discount market.

As with the general city, HH Income demographics may not actually be there.  The higher incomes are spread very very thinly along the river.  Most importantly, GROWTH is not there.  If one looks at change in population from 2000 to 2010 by Census Tract, the inner core of Jax is still RAPIDLY bleeding population. 

There are 4 "core" Tracts that gained population - 3 between DT (Northbank/Southbank, total ~10,500 people), and 1 in San Marco, which grew by a whopping 1.2% over the 10 year period to 4,201 people.

Lastly, abundant parking is a necessity.  There is not a "walk-up" population in Jax, and in San Marco the big spenders are middle/upper class families, meaning fewer weekly trips but larger purchases.  Parking for cars/SUVs is a must.  Without the development, perhaps there are site selection issues as there is not a parcel currently in San Marco that can support a single Publix with surface lot (and there is no justification for a structured parking for a single grocery), so the mid-rise development is necessary because it can provide structured parking and a more efficient layout.  So it could be site selection.

So clearly there is one or both of two things going on:

1) Site selection issues / lack of opportunity, but demand/demographics definitely there

2) Demand/demographic issues

http://projects.nytimes.com/census/2010/map

The maps are interesting.  It's sad to see that much of Jax has shrunk in population, even through 2010, while the far out areas have gained.

[thelakelander]

The demographics are already there for a San Marco Publix. I believe the issue for the developer is about finding a way to successfully pull off the residential component of the project.

[simms3]

^^^But I'd be surprised if Publix signed a legal commitment to that one specific developer for that one specific site (similar to a radius restriction).  And if they did, it is likely already expired or terminated under faulty conditions (eg developer failed to deliver a shell by x date, etc).

If that is the case, and if there are other sites available, there is no reason Publix can't build their own store elsewhere in the neighborhood if they feel the demographics are there and that the store would succeed.  Land is cheap, and grocery construction as a free-standing building or in a single level strip is a lot cheaper than as part of a mid/high-rise building (where configuring delivery, parking, access, layout, ventilation, etc is a lot more expensive, and as a result the store would pay significantly higher rent for the space than in a comparable single store building).

I think my points still stand - either the demographics are somehow not there (and demographics is very encompassing, from shopper habits to income to density...walking traffic would reduce parking needs and thus land/development costs, to density, to trade area population growth and income growth).  Or, there are no other sites to put a Publix around there and the one site is tied up by the developer.  And in the latter case, if Publix reallllllyyyyyy wanted a store there, they could approach the land owner/prospective developer for the site so that they aren't waiting any longer.

Lots of unknowns, but also too many suspicious reasons for there not to be a Publix in San Marco if Publix truly wanted a location there by now.  It has been a full decade or more since the proposal.  Keep that in mind.  Even here in SF things don't move that slowly...

[Tacachale]

Thelakelander is correct. The holdup isn't with Publix's part of the development.

[simms3]

^^^That much is more than obvious.  I think what we've been discussing is why there isn't a Publix (or any grocer) in San Marco yet, not who is holding up the development.

[fsquid]

I'm amazed that the demo isn't there, but I'm unsure what exactly a Publix is looking for.

[thelakelander]

I think my points still stand - either the demographics are somehow not there (and demographics is very encompassing, from shopper habits to income to density...walking traffic would reduce parking needs and thus land/development costs, to density, to trade area population growth and income growth).  Or, there are no other sites to put a Publix around there and the one site is tied up by the developer.  And in the latter case, if Publix reallllllyyyyyy wanted a store there, they could approach the land owner/prospective developer for the site so that they aren't waiting any longer.

My guess would be that there are not many ideal sites in San Marco for such a large development.  Before this site was selected, I do know that developers looked at some other sites along Hendricks. Once you start adding up the cost to landbank small parcels together, demolition costs, rezoning, etc. those locations would have still been inferior to this one. I did some land planning for one of them....before the Atlantic/Hendricks site materialized. With that particular site, multiple buildings would have had to be taken down, surrounding streets would have needed tobe retrofitted to accommodate parking requirements and there was still a struggle to get the amount of specialty retail desired by the development group (they didn't want to go vertical or include structured parking). In the meantime, there are three Publix stores within a 4 mile radius of San Marco. Riverside, Atlantic & University, and University & St. Augustine Road. That's better coverage than some of their locations in the Southside.