A Downtown Capital Infusion?

[simms3]

]

Berkman II failed because it was built at the tail-end of the Real Estate Boom. If the project was viable and safe, you would see capital return and an entity purchase it, just as someone purchased the half-built condo project on Goodby's Creek. Just as some entity purchased the Old San Jose Development. Just as the condos at Ortega Yacht Club have sold out over the last year, and the land for the others is being discussed for purchase. As the economic cycle returns, real estate will return. But more than a real estate turn is needed for downtown to thrive, it needs more downtown residents. Add the residents, the commercial stores will come to chase down the dollars of the residents.

Totally agree.  Downtown isn't healthcare or pension reform.  In Jax, it's a political afterthought for the masses.  The time for government to strike is now, when you have influential private sector guys in the picture who seem ready and willing to lend a hand.  Political willpower is probably higher now than back in 2009, or even a year ago.  Capital markets are still primed for lending on all sides.

Not to say city leadership can take a break from focusing on downtown when times are tough, tax dollars are dried up, and pension obligations are looming.  However, city leadership can probably be a little more "proactive" shall we say, now, when there is ability and more support.

[Cheshire Cat]

I think that having activity in the storefronts downtown will draw more people into the core and that will lead to more folks being interested in living there.

With respect to your counterpoint, I don't know a single commercial Realtor who would agree with that point that you build more storefronts to lure more residents?   Sure they would love to sell you a storefront, but without traffic to support it, why bother? Downtown is the 8-5 crowd, then after 5 it is left with a few thousand residents. The storefronts that are there now, do you see them expanding their stores and getting bigger as a result of additional storefronts coming downtown? Where is the real growth of downtown? It comes from new residents. Why did Sleiman say he plans to add residential to his Landing venture? Because he knows more residents will expand his offerings for more commercial storefronts.

Goodness, does anyone really read what I write?  To the first point.  Exactly where did I say that "building" more storefronts would lure more residents? Look again, what I said was, "I think that having activity in the storefronts downtown will draw more people into the core and that will lead to more folks being interested in living there. Not one word about storefront build outs.  It would be so love if folks did not automatically scan what is written and then default to their own interpretation which often miss represents the content intent entirely.  lmao  What is it with that?  Not dogging you MTrain by the way.  But lord have mercy it would be helpful to dialog on all subjects if folks would digest what is said and if they are not clear on the authors intent just ask.  lol

While I am on my rant....yes this is a rant ,  why oh why must we site the Landing and Sleiman with every discussion about downtown revitalization?   Okay....I fell a little better now.  lmao  I will come back and tell you precisely what I meant in more detail in just a bit.

In the meantime MTrain and other forum members.  I offer an honest statement/question.  No one disagrees that more residents in downtown will help drive core revitalization.  Right now though we have empty residential space in the core.  Developers of course will take that into consideration when considering future residential.  Let's stop for a moment and look at precisely where we currently stand.  Without projecting what might come to the core in the future my question is this.  What in the downtown core as it currently stands would induce folks to consider the core as their home?  What is the draw as things stand now.  What would be the benefit to a resident as things stand "now"?

(thanks MTrain for putting up with a general rant about folks not digesting what is written by others. lol)

[simms3]

^^^JOBS.  Duh next question, ha.

Only a city like Miami can build a ton of "downtown" housing and have a tiny amount of office space in its downtown.  But then look at that downtown housing and who's buying those condos.  Not a lot of 28 year old working professionals with degrees.  Moreso Brazilians, Venezuelans, and Argentinians, Russians, and some New Yorkers.  Actually, even in Toronto, a lot of those condos are going to the Chinese.  So many upscale condos being built without a correlating amount of office space.

However, on Earth, usually rooftops follow jobs.  Jobs have been going to the SS, hence all the new apartments, retail, etc.  If we could bring all those jobs downtown, somehow, then you'd have a huge demand to live downtown.  Types of jobs matters as well.  Jax isn't really a quantified "young professional" type of city.  Lots of the white collar jobs that would allow someone to afford downtown rents actually are for 35+ year olds who have families already.  That's why I think DB could be a game changer if they came downtown to the Southbank, or wherever.

[Cheshire Cat]

Ron Therefore, as the foot traffic (population) in the core increases, the core will attract and support more types of businesses.  Achieving a certain level of food traffic in the core, will move the core toward what we could call a threshold, above which, people will begin to move into the core as residents, workers, and entrepreneurs.

The importance of gaining foot traffic is so important for speeding the journey to vibrancy, that it must be encouraged by all means available .. incentives of all types.  I guess i'm talking about a threshold effect.  A post threshold level of population will "automatically" apply pressure for new residents, workers, and visitors.   

Ron, forgive me for dissecting your post a bit to give a brief reply (will go into more depth later).  Your last statement is bang on.  I have highlighted it in bold letters. 

[Cheshire Cat]

Simms, the question I posed is "not what would bring residents downtown".  Let me break it down for you, as the downtown landscape currently stands, what is the draw that would induce someone to make downtown their home?  The question at this point was not what we can add later on to draw folks.  I have a reason for asking.  Again, as it is now, what is the draw for a potential resident as the core currently stands.  Got it? 

[simms3]

No bc the premise of your question is silly and your response is such that youre fishing for an answer for a question that in your mind makes sense.  Again, not your realm, which might be why everyone who does know what theyre talking about tends to disagree with you or "confront" you on these issues.  I think there's a loose screw somewhere, can someone help me find it?

Now back to jobs, which would be an answer to a superior question about bringing residents downtown, perhaps this is what Eummell sees...jobs could be created out of OneSpark.  Jobs are really the long term key to the success of downtown.  Maybe creating jobs is his evil ulterior political motive, which is what I pieced together before in that other thread and your synapses somehow totally missed.

[edjax]

Cat, I guess I am confused.  You did say yesterday that you thought the incentives should go toward getting some occupancy in our storefronts. While of course you did not use the word "build", then what would these incentives to get occupancy in our storefronts be for?  Honest question as I think many would read that to mean incentives to build out storefronts to be occupied.

[Cheshire Cat]

Ed, there is a way to get occupancy and excitement in storefronts that is not about brick and mortar.  I plan to answer the question and go into more detail in a bit.  My commentary will be based in real experience with the revitalization of another downtown core down south, which I directed and which was successful.  I thought out of the box and it worked. 

[edjax]

Cool. And they would require incentives?

[Cheshire Cat]

No bc the premise of your question is silly and your response is such that youre fishing for an answer for a question that in your mind makes sense.  Again, not your realm, which might be why everyone who does know what theyre talking about tends to disagree with you or "confront" you on these issues.  I think there's a loose screw somewhere, can someone help me find it?

Now back to jobs, which would be an answer to a superior question about bringing residents downtown, perhaps this is what Eummell sees...jobs could be created out of OneSpark.  Jobs are really the long term key to the success of downtown.  Maybe creating jobs is his evil ulterior political motive, which is what I pieced together before in that other thread and your synapses somehow totally missed.

And the SF peanut gallery speaks. lol Why or why did I even engage your nonsense considering it was a veiled attempt to insult? That appears to be a need of yours which is beyond my patience level.  Won't make that mistake again.  lol  The only thing that is silly Simms is your continued nonsense and attempt to degrade discussions and divert them to your own ideas to give yourself another platform to share you endless commentary. What is it with you?  Won't the folks in SF give you and your ideas the desired attention your require?  You continue to comment about this city and you aren't here to live the reality of what is Jacksonville.  Start a thread on job creation in the core of Jacksonville if that is what you want to discuss. I am sure it will be enlightening and city leadership will contact you for further insights. 
   

[Cheshire Cat]

SIMMS is a pretty long time poster here, and his opinions have been tested by both time and predictive quality Diane.  Just saying.

I understand Stephen.  However I am no longer going to engage his rhetoric.  Just saying.    Gave him the benefit of doubt by engaging him.  My mistake.

[simms3]

SIMMS is a pretty long time poster here, and his opinions have been tested by both time and predictive quality Diane.  Just saying.

I understand Stephen.  However I am no longer going to engage his rhetoric.  Just saying.    Gave him the benefit of doubt by engaging him.  My mistake.

Diane, let's break down your question as you last phrased in (your wording seems to change and I'm not the only one confused by what you say or ask in any given thread).

Simms, the question I posed is "not what would bring residents downtown".  Let me break it down for you, as the downtown landscape currently stands, what is the draw that would induce someone to make downtown their home?  The question at this point was not what we can add later on to draw folks.  I have a reason for asking.  Again, as it is now, what is the draw for a potential resident as the core currently stands.  Got it? 

It sounds like now you're asking people who currently live downtown, why they live downtown.  Maybe some on this board can answer, but I would imagine that jobs is still a central theme of it.

The link below seems to have a few people's individual stories and a good range of articles.

http://downtownjacksonville.org/blog/tag/urban-population/

Granted, traffic in Jax isn't that bad so living downtown and working on the SS is probably not a horrible commute, but as Jax grows, it will be and people will continue to want to live closer to where they work more and more.  Is that place going to be downtown?  At this rate, no.  Will it be the SS?  Likely here to stay, but can we spread that job creation around geographically so that one suburban part of town isn't the sole beneficiary of local economic improvements?

This will involve *real* city/chamber leadership, leadership on the private sector, and likely lots of incentives.  Too many routine stories of incentives going to average job creation on the SS or westside.  Moving Everbank's main staffing to downtown - I was skeptical when it happened, but long term it's probably a good move.  We NEED Deutsche Bank downtown.  We need OneSpark to grow enough such that something sticks and there becomes more of a culture of homegrown businesses.  We need Rummell and Khan and other folks to continue to live in Jax, participate, and continue to be friends with folks outside of Jax.

We need focus from the chamber (this is an area that Atlanta does excel in and I've provided that example a few times on this board - look at the difference between Jax Chamber's boring nondescript mission statement, and that of Atlanta Chamber's; night and day difference and you can see their clear target and goals are being worked towards and achieved whereas we don't even have a clear target/goals).

Jobs jobs jobs.  Residential will follow, and then retail will follow.  Also, small businesses downtown will probably benefit more from office workers than from residents.  Reason?  Numbers alone.  If we had a decent sized downtown with 100,000 employees, a huge chunk of those employees spend most of their time downtown.  They'll want a gym.  They'll want lunch.  They'll want coffee.  They'll want cocktails and dinner after work.  They'll want convenience stores and some retail.  They could conceivably stick around from 8 AM to 12 PM filling the coffers of downtown businesses.  At the moment, only 3,200 people (supposedly) live downtown.  We can grow that to 20,000 over decades, but it still won't come close to job creation and office development that can squeeze 100,000 people there.

Conversely, downtown residents may not even work downtown.  If they're on the SS, that's where most of their time and money is spent and really only until the weekend is the downtown resident even a big plus for downtown businesses.  That is, for those who don't work downtown but choose to live there.

[Gamblor]

you don't spend public money when times are bad!

I can't disagree more on this issue. If anything public investment is the key when times are bad, as interest rates are low to zero, labor cost are significantly lower, and most suppliers will be looking to cut a deal to move product. In short it's better to spend when things are cheap.

I get what you're saying.  On the private side, a lot of things need to come together for investment during rough times.  Of course, depending on who you are, the capital invested, etc, investing at the bottom of the market could work well or may not work well.  I must admit, my understanding of public finance is not nearly as clear as my understanding of private sector financial theory and its applications.

I do wonder, though, whether public investment in a thing such as "downtown" can be viewed in the same context as healthcare or energy.  For instance, to advance large sweeping programs, many politicians wait for the times to get so bad and people to get so desperate for some sort of change/policy.  However, downtown Jax doesn't seem to be viewed by the public the way healthcare or pension reform is.  Interest rates are still extremely low even though times are fantastic in most cities now.  Construction costs are up, but certainly not in Jax.  Concrete and labor are skyrocketing in crane cities happening now in SF, Miami, Houston, NYC, and Boston.  I still think in this particular case, when there is optimism in the air, the private guys feel comfortable crawling out of the woodwork, substantive discussions are being had, and the capital markets and local job costs are favorable, now is kind of the time to strike.  Not in bad times when the city's tax base shrinks with property value deterioration and taxpayer job losses.  Floating bonds and/or spending money on downtown projects, especially in a city like Jax, in those times could prove challenging at the very least.

I agree that getting public support in this city during rough economic times would be very challenging, but I still see it as the proper answer on certain projects. I think we could both make a list of things that the city NEEDs (no want) done. I imagine those list could contain many similar projects. I just feel the proper way to do these sort of projects is to take advantage of the economic climate when we can, and not continue to allow the markets to take advantage of us. To make fair though, while I believe the public sector should shoulder more of the load during bad times, during good times they should "manage" themselves in a way that reserves can be built up so less bonds and borrowing are done during the bad. I realize these maybe my pipe-dream views, as this country is so far from being able to perceive and enter into this sort of civil economic paradigm, but the closer we can come to it the better we will be long term. Really though, it's just about getting as much bang for our tax bucks as we can get....

As for viewing downtown investment like healthcare or pension reform you could very well be right to some degree on how they are "marketed" for change during rough patches. And they're probably are many similarities in the economics, but I think those lack the cyclical nature of infrastructure. Strong healthcare and pensions are something that should be more steady, less flowy in their economics if that makes sense (if it doesn't let me know, and I can try and break my thoughts out more clearly on it)

Lastly since you gave me some really good stuff to think on, I will try to return the favor. We talk a lot here about investment and infrastructure, and there is one big point about infrastructure that I think many forget, which is that it can be a self-full filling prophecy, especially when it is a lack of it. Say for instance over the next 50 years, do we think our economy will move more toward service sector or more toward manufacturing? If we say service and only invest in what service sector needs, then we will never develop the manufacturing end. Of course, putting the investment in does not guarantee it will happen, but not putting the investment in does guarantee that it wont (*cough*landing millennials downtown*cough*). I'm a big believer that it's all about providing options, and having enough options open so that you can weather the storms and shift as the tides do around you.


P.S. Out of curiosity what part of the city are you in? I've lived in the Tenderloin, Sunset, and Marina. I miss the city desperately. I'm going back out in two months for my old roommates wedding. I'm not sure I'll get on the plane back. Also I love hearing you relay the stories of how everyone hates mass transit in SF. Which is true for those who live in the city proper. I always laughed when I'd hear them complain about it (they always compare the scale of SF systems to NYC, which I found to be pretty amusing). Sometimes I'd tell them to take a trip to Jacksonville and find out what bad mass transit really is... Anyway have a good one. Loving the convo.

[Cheshire Cat]

After taking a break from this conversation I decided to take a look a the many past conversations about the issue of downtown revitalization. I looked JCCI reports, old reports and plans for downtown and LaVilla that were never made manifest but decided to focus on what has appeared on this site alone.  It looks like much of the needed discussion has already been had over and over again. Numbers crunched, statistics quoted, discussions of parking problems, the whole ball of wax.   It occurred to me that there has been nothing recently added to the conversation that is new.  Many good points have been made already over the years but most of them have not been realized.  Rather then try and explain what I meant earlier in my own comments on this thread, I will defer to an article done on Metrojacksonville by Ennis Davis.  These are the types of things I had in my mind when I said it was not about store front build outs per say  but rather about the many other things that can be done to make downtown a more attractive and vibrant place to live, work and play.  My commentary was aimed at tackling some of the very same things highlighted in this article and historic overview. Again, we can bring some life into downtown by rethinking our approach and not continually focusing on a "big fix" when so much can be done to create vibrancy that will not overwhelm the city to the point that it keeps running in place waiting for the big thing that will turn the city around.  It's not going to be one big thing to my view but many many smaller things that will engage people and investors in such a way that they do see a real future for downtown.

http://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2012-may-the-basics-of-successful-downtown-revitalization

The Basics of Successful Downtown Revitalization
Redeveloping a struggling downtown environment doesn't have to be rocket science. More important than focusing on major newspaper headline grabbing gimmick projects is the implementation of a street environment that clusters complementing uses within a compact pedestrian scale setting.

And this.

We've been kicking around the idea of downtown revitalization since the 1950s. However, historically, we tend to ignore and overlook the basics in favor of expensive one trick pony developments that have continued to fail to deliver the results we hope for.  They say there's nothing new under the sun.  We should apply this line of thinking with every single project related to downtown and the surrounding walkable neighborhoods.

[Cheshire Cat]

So for those who agree the money from the shipyards should be used in downtown, here is a reminder for all of us.  This city created a DIA and hired a man to lead it.  He came up with a plan that outlines what should be funded first in downtown and what later over the next 20 years.  Here is the list.  Note, residential was not seen as a first priority and when it is mentioned it contains a goal of 5,000 units to happen between 2020 and 2025. There is also no mention of jobs on the list of priority spending.  It would appear to me that the die has been set and if the plan doesn't match up to all of the ideas and ideals shared by those here.  It may be time to start talking with the DIA about changes.  All of the discussions had here will have no impact unless focused there or financed by private investors.  By the way, the DIA turns on politics and public will as made manifest through....you guessed it, local politicians.  Just pointing out the facts. It is also my guess that the "retail enhancement" on the list may be more in line with what I was talking about.

http://www.metrojacksonville.com/forum/index.php?topic=20933.0

2014-2019

Creative placemaking and public art

Hemming Plaza programming and Snyder Memorial Church reuse

Jacksonville Landing repositioning

Increased bicycle parking

Improved wayfarer signage

Retail enhancement grant program

Lighting improvements

Homeless assistance program


2020-2030

Friendship Park Redesign

Northbank East-West Circulator (a bus)

"Park Once Promotion"

Live-work spaces for artists

Housing incentives and finance (5,000 additional housing units by 2025)

Reinforce the branding of the Elbow

Water launch network


2021-2045

Redesign Metropolitan Park

Improve links to the Emerald Necklace (bike trails between DT and urban neighborhoods)

Improvements to Jesse Ball DuPont Park