Real Estate To Come Back Soon?

[RiversideGator]

More on a bottom being reached in housing.  From the bottom, it is all up.   

The Media Are Missing the Housing Bottom

Media reports painted a pessimistic picture of today’s release on existing home sales, which fell 15 percent from a year ago and recorded higher inventories. But inside the report was an awful lot of very good new news, which appear to be pointing to a bottom in the housing problem; in fact, maybe the tiniest beginnings of a recovery.

For example, the median existing home price has increased four consecutive months and is up 10 percent since February. Yes, it’s down 6 percent over the past year. But the monthly numbers show a gradual rebound. Actually, this median home price is $215,000 in June, compared to $196,000 last winter.

And there’s more. One of the hardest hit regions is the West, including California, Arizona, and Nevada. The other two bad states are Florida and Michigan. However, existing home sales in the western region are up four straight months, and are 17 percent above the low in October. At the same time, prices in the West have increased three straight months.

Meanwhile, overall national existing home sales are basically stabilizing at just under five million. And in the first and second quarters of 2008, these sales dropped slightly by 3 percent in each case, which is a whole lot better than the roughly 30 percent sales drops of the prior three quarters.

It’s a pity the mainstream media keeps searching for more and more pessimism. The reality is a possible upturn in the housing trend, and at the very least we are getting a bottom. Stocks sold off 165 points largely on media reports of terrible home sales and prices. But I am hoping the market comes to its senses and realizes the data are a whole lot better.

And on top of all that, just as housing may be on the mend, Congress is about to ratify a huge FHA-based bailout that could total $42 billion. Congressional solons are putting up $300 billion to refinance and insure distressed loans through the Federal Housing Administration. But this dubious government agency, with a whole history of bad portfolio management, may wind up taking in the very worst loans on the books.

Of course, taxpayers are on the hook. More government semi-socialism.

http://www.kudlowsmoneypolitics.blogspot.com/

[RiversideGator]

Some good news for the local market:

Home prices, sales continue upward trek

Existing homes in the Jacksonville area continued to show slight monthly gains in sales and price while yearly comparisons again declined, according to data released Thursday by the Florida Association of Realtors.

Single-family home sales from May to June were up 2.1 percent to 1,013. Compared with the same month last year, sales decreased by 20 percent.

The median sales price came in at $197,000 compared with $193,200 in May. A year ago in June the median price was $212,200.

Condominium sales in June went up 20.5 percent from May to 135 units. The median sales price jumped from $154,700 to $182,000. Last June, sales were 9 percent higher at 149 with median prices 5 percent lower at $173,200.

Housing sales tracked by FAR have shown modest gains from one month to the next since February for the Jacksonville area.

Liz Flaisig/ The Times-Union

http://www.jacksonville.com/tu-online/stories/072508/bus_309538560.shtml

[Lunican]

Foreclosure filings up 120%
220,000 homes were lost to bank repossessions in the second quarter, and the annual forecast for 2008 will have to be revised upward.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- As foreclosures continue to soar, 220,000 homes were lost to bank repossessions in the second quarter, according to a housing market report Friday issued by RealtyTrac.

That's nearly triple the number from the same period in 2007.

A total of 739,714 foreclosure filings were recorded during that three-month period, up 14% from the first quarter, and 121% from the same period in 2007. That means that one of every 171 U.S. households received a filing, which include notices of default, auction sale notices and bank repossessions.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/25/real_estate/foreclosure_figures_up_again/index.htm?postversion=2008072508

[RiversideGator]

Foreclosures up 120% from last year (2007).  They are up just 14% from last quarter.  It seems as if they too are close to a plateau.  Also, these are nationwide numbers.  Jacksonville appears to be doing a bit better.

[RiversideGator]

Some more good news, courtesy of the US Census:

Homeownership Rate in Second Quarter 2008 Rebounds By Largest Increase in Four Years



The chart above is based on the Census Bureau's latest release on home ownership rates, and shows the following:

1. The howeownership rate fell below 68% in the last quarter of 2007 (67.8%) and first quarter of 2008 (67.8%) for the first time since early 2002, as part of a four-year downward trend since the 69.2% peak level of homeownership in 2004.

2. The .30% increase in homeownship for the second quarter of 2008 to 68.1% was the first quarterly increase in almost two years (since third quarter 2006), and was the largest quarterly increase in four years (since second quarter 2004).

Bottom Line: If this rebound in homeownership rates continues to reverse the four-year downward trend, it could provide further evidence that we are finally experiencing a bottom to the housing market problems, as suggested by Larry Kudlow (The Media Are Missing the Housing Bottom) and Brian Wesbury ("Pace of existing home sales is very close to a bottom," and "Pace of new home sales has either already hit bottom or is getting very close to the bottom.")

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/

[uptowngirl]

Forbes Magazine lists Jacksonville as #9 best city to buy in
http://www.forbes.com/2008/07/14/housin ... stbuy.html

[BridgeTroll]

Forbes Magazine lists Jacksonville as #9 best city to buy in
http://www.forbes.com/2008/07/14/housin ... stbuy.html

Your link is bad...

[RiversideGator]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/29/home-prices-plunge-record_n_115562.html

NEW YORK â€" Home prices tumbled by the steepest rate ever in May, according to a closely watched housing index released Tuesday, as the housing slump deepened nationwide.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city index dropped by 15.8 percent in May compared with a year ago, a record decline since its inception in 2000. The 10-city index plunged 16.9 percent, its biggest decline in its 21-year history.

No city in the Case-Shiller 20-city index saw price gains in May, the second straight month that's happened. The monthly indices have not recorded an overall home price increase in any month since August 2006.

Home values have fallen 18.4 percent since the 20-city index's peak in July 2006.

Nine metropolitan cities _ Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Wash., Portland, Ore., and Washington, D.C. _ posted record lows in May. And the value of housing in Detroit is now lower than it was in 2000.

But a possible bright spot in an otherwise dismal report, seven metros _ Tampa, Fla., Boston, Detroit, Minneapolis, New York, Dallas and Atlanta _ showed smaller annual declines.

Las Vegas recorded the worst drop, with prices plunging 28.4 percent in the month. Miami came in a close second, with prices down 28.3 percent.

Charlotte, N.C., posted the smallest drop at 0.2 percent. Until April, the North Carolina city had been the last metro still showing price gains.

You obviously dont understand that (1) the Case-Shiller index attempts to measure the nominal values of property not the real value so property can still go up in price but the index could show a "loss", (2) the Case-Shiller is not the only index out there and it is consistently more pessimistic than the others which is why the media loves it, (3) looking at the year over year loss is deceptive as the trends in sales and prices since February have all been positive and (4) the index only includes 20 real estate markets out of the entire nation and Jacksonville is not even included.  Other than these problems, it is a great index.  Thanks for posting it.   

[RiversideGator]

Would this part of your post not constitute a "comment":

Re: Sunshine and Unicorn Laughter Coming from Propaganda Asses Unsubstantiated

If not, sorry I misinterpreted your post.   

[uptowngirl]

Try this one, the other was a copy of a copy of the link 

http://www.forbes.com/2008/07/14/housing-buyers-list-forbeslife-cx_md_0714bestbuy.html


"San Francisco, Charlotte, N.C., Jacksonville, Fla., and St. Louis, Mo., are other areas buyers can feel safe investing in. "

[uptowngirl]

Although I am not sure how reliable that is when you look at this in the "indepth" section:

9. Jacksonville, Fla.
Since 2000, Jacksonville's population has grown an impressive 8%. Meanwhile, median home prices have climbed 14% in the last 24 months to $189,200. Along with its other virtues, sunshine-rich Jacksonville came in at No. 3 on our 2008 Cleanest Cities list thanks to fresh air and clean water.


You can say a lot about JAX, but clean???!!!! hmmmm

[Charleston native]

^ Again, you guys really don't know how good you've got it. Sure, there are industrial areas of the city that need cleaning up, but they pale in comparison to other cities in GA, SC, and NC that are dirtier--despite the lack of industry!

[uptowngirl]

I am referencing litter, not industrial, but normal everyday citizen litter, and it is pretty bad.

[Charleston native]

Believe me, it is worse up here. Cigarette butts, beer cans, Colt 45 bottles...all because usually these people just throw their trash in the back of their pick-up trucks and drive off. I'm not saying Jax is ultra-clean, because I have seen parts of the city with litter. However, everytime I visit Jax, I see a pretty clean city in comparison to my current residence of Columbia.

[Eazy E]

Believe me, it is worse up here. Cigarette butts, beer cans, Colt 45 bottles...all because usually these people just throw their trash in the back of their pick-up trucks and drive off. I'm not saying Jax is ultra-clean, because I have seen parts of the city with litter. However, everytime I visit Jax, I see a pretty clean city in comparison to my current residence of Columbia.

Everywhere I go there is litter in Jax-- especially in the 'Field. Just yesterday I saw some guy walking down Laura, finish his beer, and just throw it in someone's front bushes. I have litter in my yard ALL the time.