A Closer Look At 220 Riverside

[Jumpinjack]

There's not much left of Brooklyn to judge by. All affordable residential housing is mostly gone.
Here is an excellent article from 2006 about what is left:
http://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2006-sep-disappearing-brooklyn-saving-what

[Captain Zissou]

^ In terms of Residents, Brooklyn is tiny.  However, think of how many workers are in that area every day.  The only comperable area to that is Southpoint.  You're not going to get an accurate depiction of the crime level using per capita numbers.  The thousands of employees that work there and the number of clubs and eateries that bring people there distort the number you would get by doing a per capita comparrison.

[CityLife]

Please allow me to put in my two cents as a Realtor.  Location is the primary driver of price/rent and this area is well known for it's high crime rate and seedy activities. (Review the JSO Crime Statistics for verification.) Tenants who can afford $1,200.00 a month will not accept Brooklyn.  I doubt if the property managers will be able to get more than 15% occupancy in the building in the first several years of operation.

Here is a breakdown of all categories of crime within certain neighborhoods. If your contention is that people won't move to Brooklyn because of crime, then absolutely NOBODY should be living in Cedar Hills.

Start Date:   1/1/2012
End Date:   11/14/2012
Date Range:   319 days

Total number of reported crimes, all classes:

Baymeadows - 394
Arlington - 594
Avenues - 168
Mandarin - 205
Cedar Hills - 838
Ortega Hills - 367
San Marco - 232
Murray Hill - 806
Springfield - 734
BROOKLYN - 137

How big is Brooklyn compared to the other areas?

Nowhere near the size or population of the other places listed. It also doesn't differentiate crime either. So some of those could be calls about loud music and some could be about murders. It doesn't even matter and probably didn't even warrant attention in the first place. There isn't a crime issue in Brooklyn and there certainly won't be when professionals start moving in. A couple of trolls who are likely afraid of Brooklyn and/or the urban core taking off spouted off some nonsense.

[downtownjag]

Well Pope and Land is still pushing forward, so I guess 220 Riverside's occupancy will now be around 7.5%

[simms3]

^^I see that happening potentially in Mandarin due to its isolation and location (still Duval County with mediocre schools compared to SJC just 5 min away, but at far reaches and not close to employment center), but the SS will always be a "happening" and desirable spot.  Even the densest of cities have their "good" suburban side of town (west of Boston, northwest of Detroit, north of Atlanta, south of Miami, north of Dallas, west of Houston, west of Philly, south of SF and east of Oakland, etc etc).

I don't understand why anyone would live that far out and not just pull the trigger and move to SJC. Maybe if you hate walking AND want bad schools. Based on these vague descriptions of "good" suburban sides of other towns, the Southside would be an exurb and Riverside, San Marco, Springfield, etc would be the suburbs. All of those areas are more urban than anything in Jax but DT and the Southbank. They are old suburbs, whereas Southside is the new suburb. Not a knock against living there one way or the other, but it doesn't compare to those other 'burbs.

Despite what people want to preach and believe, the majority of people, young, middle-aged, and old will and still live in the suburbs, and it will always be that way.  The notion that all of a sudden young people are living in the city for the first time is false.  The only difference is that now young people don't have to go live in their car in NYC or SF to be "in" the city and can find microcosms of city life within their own hometowns for much less.  A young person in Jax can rent a "Penthouse" with luxury in 11 East for less than it would cost to rent a room in an ok area of Manhattan or SF.  Still, even in Jax given the lower salaries, $1200+ rent is a big step and definitely puts you in the 1-3% range, and so even most in Jax won't be able to afford urban living there...in steps the suburbs where most live and will always live.

The suburbs are not all that old a concept, so sweeping generalities about how most people will live there "always" smack of naivety. I don't think there was ever a huge population of people living in their cars. All the large cities have a range of housing options, many of which are quite affordable. NYC, for example, was not always so expensive. That too is a fairly recent development. Nonetheless, you can still live on the cheap there if you have to, even in Manhattan.

No one is asserting that young people never lived in urban areas before. What is unique is people that grew up in the burbs are moving into cities. Because the burbs aren't all that old, this is relatively new behavior, and it is interesting because it was their parents that grew up in the city and moved out to the burbs. Most of them will probably move back to the burbs to raise kids, but that doesn't mean its not still a significant trend.

I don't think anyone is claiming that Jax can support the same rental rates as NYC or SF, nor do we think a Penthouse ($1800/month rent, btw) at 11E is the absolute lap of luxury (your quotation of luxury seems to indicate that your readers have a feeble understanding of luxury, as opposed to your refined self). NYC is more expensive, no doubt, but its silly to suggest you can't find a place in Manhattan for under $2000/month. You can find a pretty nice place with that in any part of the city, and you'd probably have a proper doorman, and some legitimate retail options under you. The difference is, in Jax, there are much fewer available, and a demand for more. and plenty of people can, and will, afford it.

LoL.  And before the 1900s the vast majority in this country lived in rural areas and we had an agrarian economy.  Of course things change, but I'm looking at "our" lifetime.

And yes, as someone who works in real estate in many cities on many different projects, it is an overhyped falsity that all Millennials wish to live in the city (the fact that most can't come close to affording it be damned).  Anyone in RE and demographics will confirm that for you "off the record".  It makes for a great story, though!  Like I said (and have said before on this forum) the difference is that every city's core now has a younger segment, not just the top 5 largest cities.  Whereas before if you were college educated in a certain profession, you *had* to move to NYC, Chicago, SF, Boston, etc.  Now you can stay in your hometown, work a semi-similar job for less, AND live a semi-urban lifestyle for less.  This is simply a factor of the increase in secondary education in our country and the shift from manufacturing to services.  I know even back in the day "before young people moved to cities" both my parents lived in NYC, Miami and other cities post college before they married and settled down.  They must have been real odd!

And having been in 11E penthouse it is definitely luxurious in the loft apartment category.  I really don't think you're up to speed on just how expensive NYC, Boston and SF are.  You really can't find much at all under $2,000 in Manhattan and SF unless you're going to be living in a rough area in less than desirable conditions, and even "luxury" takes on a new meaning.  Whereas in Jax luxury implies all the bells and whistles, granite, stainless steel appliances, etc etc, in many cities luxury can be advertised if your faucet isn't leaky and your carpet isn't stained, ha.  In SF even top of the line apartments do not have central heating or air, and our $10K/mo corporate unit there is an outdated 60s 2 BR with mirrors covering the walls (no AC or heat either, though old floor heaters in the bathroom!).  We are leasing 2nd-4th floor apartments in Boston that are 285 SF for $1,500-$1,800/mo, and these are OLD (would be GHETTO in Jax).  Our "luxury" units there have a W/D, but no dishwasher...and sometimes only 1-2 coil stove.  At least the appliances are new, though hardly top of the line.  Granted they are in the Back Bay, which is appealing to wealthy college students and singles.

[JeffreyS]

Please allow me to put in my two cents as a Realtor.  Location is the primary driver of price/rent and this area is well known for it's high crime rate and seedy activities. (Review the JSO Crime Statistics for verification.) Tenants who can afford $1,200.00 a month will not accept Brooklyn.  I doubt if the property managers will be able to get more than 15% occupancy in the building in the first several years of operation.

Here is a breakdown of all categories of crime within certain neighborhoods. If your contention is that people won't move to Brooklyn because of crime, then absolutely NOBODY should be living in Cedar Hills.

Start Date:   1/1/2012
End Date:   11/14/2012
Date Range:   319 days

Total number of reported crimes, all classes:

Baymeadows - 394
Arlington - 594
Avenues - 168
Mandarin - 205
Cedar Hills - 838
Ortega Hills - 367
San Marco - 232
Murray Hill - 806
Springfield - 734
BROOKLYN - 137

How big is Brooklyn compared to the other areas?

Nowhere near the size or population of the other places listed. It also doesn't differentiate crime either. So some of those could be calls about loud music and some could be about murders. It doesn't even matter and probably didn't even warrant attention in the first place. There isn't a crime issue in Brooklyn and there certainly won't be when professionals start moving in. A couple of trolls who are likely afraid of Brooklyn and/or the urban core taking off spouted off some nonsense.

The current low population would only mean that whatever demographic rents in the new development will be the dominate one. So if the you are the one who wants to rent there you need to consider if you are the one you want to live near.

[downtownjag]

Could someone show/tell me where the Fresh Market is rumored to go?

[thelakelander]

Looking at the site plan below, it would most likely be the "Retail-A" anchor.  The "Retail-B" space looks like a CVS/Walgreens box. 

[downtownjag]

Thanks.  This is the Pope & Land project?

[thelakelander]

Yes.  The residential portion's design has already been approved by the DDRB.  The commercial portion has not.

[simms3]

The retail component is a separate Atlanta developer by the name of Jeff Fuqua who used to be associated with Sembler until last year when he broke off.  Fuqua has tried to be active in both Atlanta (where he's based) and Denver (where he went to college), and so far all of his proposals have stirred up community protests (and due to the unpopularity of one, the city council stopped it from happening).

I would keep an eye on this development to ensure that the retailer is indeed Fresh Market, or at least ends up FM, rather than say a Walmart Neighborhood Market.  Fuqua has a big relationship with Walmart, which is half of the basis of the protests in both Denver and Atlanta (he has been trying to "sneak" Walmarts into urban locations ever since he broke off from Sembler).  Keep in mind Sembler has also veered away from their model of the past 3-5 years of building "lifestyle" center type developments in favor of traditional strip suburban centers.

Pope & Land [the privately held land owner] has several partners in their residential deal (Lincoln Property Company [private], Mid-America Apartment Communities [public REIT], Hallmark Partners [local private developer...probably the fee party here]).  From what I do on a daily basis, I can only imagine what the "waterfall" looks like and I feel sorry for the analyst on this project who must build the waterfall from partnership docs and closing statements (considering the amount of cooks in the kitchen!).

[thelakelander]

What's wrong with a Walmart Neighborhood Market? How is it different from a typical Publix or Winn-Dixie?

[JeffreyS]

It would certainly be a step down from Fresh Market. The problem with WM is image for what will certainly be billed as a new hip area.

[thelakelander]

I'd still be happy with a Walmart Neighborhood Market over having no grocery store there.  I've been to a few and outside of Walmart owning them, I don't see why they are viewed so negatively here.

[duvaldude08]

I agree Lake.