Runoff Election May 17, 2011, Master Thread. Observations and Updates

[hillary supporter]

I'm stuck here in nyc.my tears are for all of you in our great city.I'm so happy for everyone and count my hours til I get home ! We made history tonight!

[CityLife]

Another reason this is not such a defeat for the Tea Party: they did pretty well in council races, knocking off Jack Webb in Mandarin. 

Whatever helps you sleep at night...Getting 8,800 votes against another Republican in a conservative area isn't exactly a victory.

Maybe the local Tea Party should start to focus more of its efforts on Lake City, Palatka, Waldo, etc and let the big boys and girls in the big city play.

[JaxByDefault]

Everyone pay attention to what happens at the canvassing board tomorrow. The TU will be blogging it.

It appears that there are 642 provisional ballots and about 1,000 absentee ballots to be counted.

Although the provisional ballots will break heavily for Brown, only a handful of these will be counted. Most will be thrown out.

Most of the absentee ballots, however, should count. Hogan took the absentee ballots that have already been counted by a 2-to-1 margin. If that holds tomorrow, then things could get very close.

[FlowerPower]

Yes and Taylor out did Daniels at a similar ratio in the absentee voting...he might actually be able to close 150 votes....but I think Hogan closing 600 votes against Brown is much less likely.   


Lets say it does go 2:1 on the 1000 absentees...Hogan 666, Brown 334...that would be a gain of 332 for Hogan...but not nearly enough...then figure the provisional ballots should favor Brown....Hogan cant win....

If you apply it to Taylor though...after counting absentees he goes from being down 150 to being up 150....and then the ratio of provisional ballots that are accepted and for whom becomes paramount....

[Jimmy]

I'm back from the Hyatt and all caught up.  You guys were busy!  LOL

[ChriswUfGator]

I feel especially bad for BigGuy. He already had his celebratory champagne chilled. Oops!

[Jimmy]

Somewhere upthread someone referred to Maxville intellectuals.  Well, I'll have that person know that I'm from Maxville, and I do okay.

Aside from that, what a night for Jacksonville!  Everyone is going to take credit for what happened tonight.  MJ, the gay community (which got engaged in a local race for the first time ever) - a lot of people.

The people who made tonight happen are the ones who donated and volunteered and voted.  It was a big win - and there's credit to go around to everyone who make it possible.  Great job, everyone!

[Jimmy]

It was such a thin margin, and the amazing thing about it was that it was the result of a lot of very small groups working together that have never worked together before.

Without any one of those groups, Hogan would have won.

And it felt good to see so many people who were meeting each other for the first time.

It was really a beautiful beautiful night, and I don't know how you felt about it, but I agree with your earlier conversation.  I think this has the ability to be the beginning of a political realignment in the city.

I concur completely.  For the first time, we all pulled on the same oar and this is what happens when our side decides to do that.  And our "side" is a lot bigger than it used to be.  And it's not about political parties and identity politics - I think for the first time ever.

Now it's about what's better for Jacksonville.  The realignment is all about true civic purpose and connecting the thinking about what's better to the doing something about making it better.  It's amazing to live in Jacksonville at this time in our history when we've overcome so much - just like that - and are poised to start the fourth chapter in our civic history. This is our time.

[JaxByDefault]

Yes and Taylor out did Daniels at a similar ratio in the absentee voting...he might actually be able to close 150 votes....but I think Hogan closing 600 votes against Brown is much less likely.  


Lets say it does go 2:1 on the 1000 absentees...Hogan 666, Brown 334...that would be a gain of 332 for Hogan...but not nearly enough...then figure the provisional ballots should favor Brown....Hogan cant win....

If you apply it to Taylor though...after counting absentees he goes from being down 150 to being up 150....and then the ratio of provisional ballots that are accepted and for whom becomes paramount....

I agree...the Taylor-Daniels race will likely swing the other way over the next couple days.

I think it is a tall order for Hogan to pull ahead, but it will be close.

(Don't let FBC know that you projected Hogan to take "666" absentee votes!)

[Jimmy]

Next time, we will be there with internet access.

Dammit!  I wish I had known about your need.  That flashing green light in my shirt pocket was my mifi.  I would have gladly let you onto my internet if only I'd known!  It was a mob scene. 

I think even I was cheering for Stevie at one point.

[Jimmy]

Yes and Taylor out did Daniels at a similar ratio in the absentee voting...he might actually be able to close 150 votes....but I think Hogan closing 600 votes against Brown is much less likely.   


Lets say it does go 2:1 on the 1000 absentees...Hogan 666, Brown 334...that would be a gain of 332 for Hogan...but not nearly enough...then figure the provisional ballots should favor Brown....Hogan cant win....

If you apply it to Taylor though...after counting absentees he goes from being down 150 to being up 150....and then the ratio of provisional ballots that are accepted and for whom becomes paramount....

I agree...the Taylor-Daniels race will likely swing the other way over the next couple days.

I think it is a tall order for Hogan to pull ahead, but it will be close.

(Don't let FBC know that you projected Hogan to take "666" absentee votes!)

Please be right... please be right... please be right... Oh, please be right. (Re: the Taylor-Daniels race swinging back.)

[BridgeTroll]

http://www.duvalelections.com/PressRelease.aspx?id=275

DUVAL COUNTY, Supervisor of Elections Jerry Holland announced 65,012 voters have cast a ballot either by voting early or by absentee for Jacksonville's 2011 Unitary General Election.

As of Book Closing, April 18th, there are 518,620 registered voters in Duval County eligible to cast a ballot in Jacksonville’s 2011 Unitary General Election on May 17th. At the conclusion of early voting on Sunday, May 15th at total of 38,562 voters cast a ballot during the two week period. In addition, 26,450 Absentee Ballots were verified by signatures and have been validated to be opened and processed by the Canvassing Board. This brings the total number of ballots cast by Absentee Ballots or during Early Voting to 65,012, which is 12.5% of eligible voters. The numerical breakdown of ballots cast by party is: Democrats 29,705, Republican 29,035 and independents/npa 6,272.

[sheclown]

Hogan built a lead with early voting and absentee results, leading by as much as 6 points when the first numbers came in. But it tightened though the night, with Brown strongholds in the urban core pushing him to the slim lead.

Read more at Jacksonville.com: http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2011-05-17/story/alvin-brown-has-603-vote-lead-over-mike-hogan#ixzz1Mha3elKQ

U R B A N   C O R E

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[johnnyroadglide]

All I can say is WOW. I went to bed last night with Hogan leading by a few thousand and figured that was it. This morning I turn on the news and Mr. Brown is up by 600. Amazing. Where did those votes come from? What where the last precincts to turn in ballots?

jrg

[thelakelander]

I guess the urban core does matter.