How To Spot The Next Hot Neighborhood

[simms3]

As it stands right now, if we had a streetcar line connecting Avondale, Riverside, San Marco, and Springfield, the most use I see of it is during lunch hour when office workers downtown may want to conveniently leave downtown to eat lunch in one of these areas.  I don't see "many" residents taking it to work and I don't see much weekend or night time use.

Also, with commuter rail, since it would run during peak traffic times, I think express commuter busses setting out from park and ride lots would function very similarly.  It's about $3 one way for comfortable, large seats and the same overall convenience.  The bus may sit in traffic, too, but it's Jacksonville traffic, meaning pretty much no traffic.  They are highly successful in Atlanta and receive A LOT of ridership and they are cheaper and easier to implement than clearing ROW with the rail companies for commuter rail.

[thelakelander]

Yea, but it won't be walkable with large swaths of single family homes.  Walkable implies mixed use density and Riverside and San Marco kinda sorta can be walkable but Avondale is too low density.  Will RAP and SPAR allow developers to come in and make Avondale and Riverside and Springfield walkable, even if that means leveling a few of the older houses/buildings?  There is no point in "spurring economic development/TODs" if said TODs and higher density developments can't actually be built due to historic preservation nazis, and mass transit alone won't spur the change we need downtown, especially since the residents of these neighborhoods that work downtown love their comfortable cars and don't have to fight traffic.

In Charlotte, their LRT bought just as much life to the South End as it did to Uptown. I'm looking way past Riverside, Springfield and Avondale.  Imo, those aren't the hot spots of the future.  Its the continued overlooked spots of the Northside, like Durkeeville and New Springfield or around DT like the Cathedral District. Places where you do have a transit dependent population and a mix of urban building fabric already in place.  Places that have bones, lack strict development regulations and are affordable but lack connectivity.  Places that are also close to existing economic generators like Shands, EWC, Swisher and JAXPORT.  It just so happens that starter commuter rail and streetcar lines will provide them with the connectivity they lack.

I mean, just from experience, if it's easier and more convenient for me to use a car just to get around Midtown Atlanta even though I live across from an HRT subway station on the most extensive system in the South, then how are we going to convince enough people in Avondale, Riverside, San Marco, Lakewood, Springfield, etc to ditch their cars and walk a few blocks past other houses to get to a transit stop?  Especially when there is already no traffic in our urban core.  Midtown is denser than our downtown in terms of residents, office workers, and retail, with heavier traffic, and it's still easier to use a car in most cases.  Our "dense" neighborhoods are entirely single family, and not as dense as they are in New Orleans.

It's not about ditching cars.  It's more about giving residents viable alternative options to get around their community.  One thing I love about the core of Boston is that although mass transit exists, its just as exciting to walk or bike at times, due to the vibrancy at street level.  I believe we can accomplish a similar array of options in urban Jax in a short time period with the right leadership in place.

[thelakelander]

As it stands right now, if we had a streetcar line connecting Avondale, Riverside, San Marco, and Springfield, the most use I see of it is during lunch hour when office workers downtown may want to conveniently leave downtown to eat lunch in one of these areas.  I don't see "many" residents taking it to work and I don't see much weekend or night time use.

I'd put in a streetcar strictly to spur the dense walkable development everyone claims they want.  Without fixed transit in place, TOD isn't going to happen.  From a transit standpoint, run it like a spine and you can easily up daily ridership.  Make sure it hits destinations like Five Points, St. Vincents, Cummer and the offices down Riverside Avenue.  At the same time, funnel your Westside bus routes into the fixed transit spine instead of taking them all into Rosa Parks.

Also, with commuter rail, since it would run during peak traffic times, I think express commuter busses setting out from park and ride lots would function very similarly.  It's about $3 one way for comfortable, large seats and the same overall convenience.  The bus may sit in traffic, too, but it's Jacksonville traffic, meaning pretty much no traffic.  They are highly successful in Atlanta and receive A LOT of ridership and they are cheaper and easier to implement than clearing ROW with the rail companies for commuter rail.

Depends on how the commuter rail system is designed to serve the population along the corridor.  Again, I'd look at a model where changing development patterns over the long run is more important than ridership in the initial years.  Salt Lake City's Front Runner, Philly's SEPTA and Austin's Metrorail are good examples to study.

[fieldafm]

Bold City?  No way, bring him some Intuition. 

If the greenway is restored, is there sufficient space to run a path somehow under State and Union between springfield and DT??  A bike path along the creek from Klutho Park up to the Riverwalk would be amazing, but the main obstacle is State and Union. 

Truthfully, I do prefer BC over Intuition.

Absolutely yes on the bikepath.  I spent all Sunday morning taking pictures of Hogan Creek and a few other potential blueways.  I'll post some stuff up shortly.

In the  meantime, take a look at the pictures from SCAD's Shipyards Design Project.  There is a presentation which integrates a restored Hogans Creek Greenway, complete with walking/biking paths and bike rental stations.

[simms3]

Lakelander, I agree with your opinions on what the next Hot Spots could be!  The places that will see infill are not in "historic districts" with reigning supreme almighty preservation societies.

I may be off, but I would hope that our University/Beach/Phillips corridors in town could become dense and walkable with fixed transit like areas of west LA.  Of course this is decades down the road if ever .

I'm just not as optimistic about transit in Jax right now.  Taking some classes on the subject really opened my eyes on a few things, and I love "complete streets," marrying transit planning and land planning, amending subdivision/zoning regulations, creating TIPs and comprehensive long term plans, etc etc.  Jax is missing a few ingredients, still, though.  Hopefully new leadership...!  It's not like fixed transit is the only thing that can spur dense, mixed use infill development.  Most of Atlanta's infill is nowhere near current MARTA stations and they are in historic districts.

[thelakelander]

With fixed transit, I'll put it this way.  Put it in and its like stomping on the gas instead of waiting decades for things to change.  The turn around in places like DC's Columbia Heights, Portland's Pearl District Miami's Downtown Dadeland and Tampa's Channel District would not have happened without the investment in fixed transit, strengthening the connectivity of those places with the rest of the community.  Considering its affordability, its really one of the cheapest things we can do to aggressively stimulate sustainable economic development through the utilization of funds already being generated.

As for being optimistic, I must say I am.  When we started MJ in 2006, most of the stuff being discussed today only happened on the website.  Five years later, the majority of those things have already been incorporated into JTA's long term plans, the LRTP, COJ's comp plan and land use regulations and now we actually have something in the works that can provide initial funding without raising taxes or having a public referendum.  Combine this in with the change in vision at the federal level and a new mayor taking office this year and we have opportunity.  Imo, the stars have finally aligned and opportunity is knocking at the door.  Over the next year or two, we'll either take advantage or completely miss the boat.

[floridaforester]

Simms you obviously don't know Jax very well if you honestly think that Univerisity/Beach/ Philips Hwy corridors would EVER be dense and walkable.  The car culture is too ingrained in this city and the only exceptions are the very neighborhoods that you continue to claim are under the thumbs of "almighty preservation societies".

I'm curious if you understand that without RAP, most of Riverside would have been turned into surface parking lots by a hospital without any regard to the disastrous results to the residents in the neighborhood.  If you supposedly live across the street from a train station in ATL, I would suggest you use it.  Also, I would invite you to come to Jax and explore the only walkable communities of this city, Riverside/ Avondale, Springfield and San Marco .   

You suggest that San Marco may invite higher density residential, because of a lack of historic district status, but it may very well end up being either a parking lot for Baptist hospital or much of the neighborhood being razed for commercial development.  Remember E. San Marco that leveled several city blocks for condos/retail and has been empty for over 4 years?  The promised Publix has never been delivered and what has the neighborhood been left with?  Just saying.

[simms3]

Valid points where I agree, but I think I'm a little more familiar with the city than you give me credit for .  Also, just as you have invited me down to Jacksonville to tour the city, I am inviting you up to Atlanta to stay as a resident in Midtown to see whether or not you would actually use MARTA as much as you recommend that I use MARTA.  I would be interested to see if you would even attempt to ride MARTA after 9-10 at night, period.

Riverside, Avondale, Springfield, and San Marco have walkable stretches, but the entire neighborhoods are not walkable for what most people would label as walkable.  If all of Oak Street were a continuous stretch of 3-5 floor apartments/offices with stores, bars, and restaurants on the ground level from 5 Points to the Shoppes of Avondale, and if 5 Points and the Shoppes were larger and denser, and there were more apartments scattered throughout this stretch, then it might be considered walkable.  As it stands now, there are 3 scattered 3-4 block areas with somewhat walkability separated by miles/blocks upon blocks of single family homes and a few duplexes/quadplexes.

Springfield has the potential to have a very cool, unique mix of old and new.  It might lose its historic district status, but to have a bunch of new lofts and apartments and shops with funky, contemporary designs next to old prairie style homes would be better than having the current mix that is there, which includes some restored homes, lots of vacant commercial space, lots of vacant homes, and lots of cleared lots.

[thelakelander]

If all of Oak Street were a continuous stretch of 3-5 floor apartments/offices with stores, bars, and restaurants on the ground level from 5 Points to the Shoppes of Avondale, and if 5 Points and the Shoppes were larger and denser, and there were more apartments scattered throughout this stretch, then it might be considered walkable.

This is where you'll have the dilemma.  Its very rare that a city will be able to build that kind a density and walkability without fixed mass transit.  I'd be surprised if you can find more than three or four examples in the US.  Even in South Beach, much of that historic density would not have happened without the streetcar system that operated there until 1939.

As it stands now, there are 3 scattered 3-4 block areas with somewhat walkability separated by miles/blocks upon blocks of single family homes and a few duplexes/quadplexes

This is why I said, take the info in the book/chart you have with a grain of salt.  Walkability in the majority of America's cities meet the same description.  However, what a decent mass transit system does is effectively tie these 3-4 block walkable areas together with employment centers and areas of decent residential density.  Over time those 3-4 block walkable areas tend to stretch out along the transit corridor, creating the density/walkability your chart has identified as being needed for successful transit.  By the way, one thing cities are beginning to do, is link a few of these 3-4 block areas together with another popular destination as the endpoints of their transit lines.  In the center, they attempt to place the route into underutilized or blighted areas like Brooklyn or LaVilla to spur TOD in them.  Portland's Pearl District is probably the most popular example but another to keep your eye on the next couple of years is Detroit.

[Captain Zissou]

I think for starters, the gas station property in the Shoppes of Avondale should become a mixed use structure with no fewer than 20 residences and ground level retail.  The properties along St Johns between the Shoppes and Boone park should be the same thing.  Commander Apartment project proposed a few years ago needs to go through with a beefed up retail component, and more residences outside the tower.  There are a couple lots near San Juan and Herschel that can support Higher density.  

Next, run a streetcar down St Johns from San Juan to 5 Points, where you could transfer to the skyway at Annie Lytle.  Send the same streetcar line back down Park street to McDuff, then down Mcduff to Aberdeen to Herschel to St Johns (I think this exactly duplicates the old streetcar line).  

Then, go medium density (3-6 floors) on King Street, McDuff, Stockton, and Park.  There's no reason First Guaranty needs to take up 6 blocks.  Consolidate or remove the two giant St Vincents surface lots along riverside Ave. Those two properties could support another 400 residents. Once all these areas are built up, I think sufficient momentum and density would be established that the neighborhood would build itself up from here on out.

[north miami]

The RAP area appeal is due in part to a long history of guarding against an onslaught of change.RAP arrangements may not lend itself to visions of "Hot" neighborhood precisely for the same reasons it is a certifiably "cool" place to live and work.

Recent RAP area city "Overlay" public visioning excercises tended to endorse the status quo.Even the Herschel Street/Geraldine animal hospital bottleneck received no bad marks however 'what if' proposals shared in this thread-removing houses for garage parking and other 'in fill' would have certainly sparked an uprising.
In fact the Loop/Fishweir Creek area overwhelmingly envisioned as a Park.Acknowledged unlikely but that is where the strings to the resident's heart leads.


I am curious about another item perhaps related to this thread:I see that in the recent past 4% of Clay Countians that have moved moved to ......Duval.

[simms3]

See Lake, I actually agree, but I don't think Avondale/most of Riverside will ever be actually dense enough to make a new streetcar line running through it worth it, and it's precisely because the residents and the RAP don't want anything to change from what it is, as North Miami points out.

Streetcars would have served these neighborhoods at current density well back in the 1920s because not many people had cars then and everyone worked downtown (and there weren't parking garages like there are today).  Parking in the commercial areas today is hardly ever a problem, and it's quicker, just as cheap, and more convenient to just hop in your car from Avondale to 5 Points.

Now if RAP changes its tune and we can tweak the Overlay to encourage denser new development, even if a few houses and duplexes have to go, then a streetcar could be worth it.

The commercial areas as they are today are basically restaurants and a few shops run by housewives and mom/pops.  They aren't "employment centers".  If we allowed a few 5-10 floor office buildings in select areas, then we would be talking.  They could actually be great locations for doctor/outpatient, law, appraisal, accounting, design, etc offices and great locations for spas and small financial businesses if we allowed small office buildings.  Galleries and shops could go in the ground floor/lobby.  It would be slightly similar to Coral Gables in Miami, which is not served by the Metro, but is still easy to use and has easy parking.

[thelakelander]

You don't have to be as dense as Boston's Back Bay to be able to support a streetcar.  That's a myth.  Riverside is already dense enough to be one of many destinations along a fixed mass transit spine.  Add to that, the ability to link destinations like St. Vincents, Five Points and the offices down Riverside Avenue with DT while also exposing Brooklyn for infill development makes such an economic development project more viable.

[thelakelander]

With that said, push the line to Blanding, which will allow you to funnel in all Westside bus traffic into your system if higher ridership is your one and only main focus.  An example of this would be LA's red line subway and orange line BRT.

[peestandingup]

See Lake, I actually agree, but I don't think Avondale/most of Riverside will ever be actually dense enough to make a new streetcar line running through it worth it, and it's precisely because the residents and the RAP don't want anything to change from what it is, as North Miami points out.

Streetcars would have served these neighborhoods at current density well back in the 1920s because not many people had cars then and everyone worked downtown (and there weren't parking garages like there are today).  Parking in the commercial areas today is hardly ever a problem, and it's quicker, just as cheap, and more convenient to just hop in your car from Avondale to 5 Points.

Now if RAP changes its tune and we can tweak the Overlay to encourage denser new development, even if a few houses and duplexes have to go, then a streetcar could be worth it.

The commercial areas as they are today are basically restaurants and a few shops run by housewives and mom/pops.  They aren't "employment centers".  If we allowed a few 5-10 floor office buildings in select areas, then we would be talking.  They could actually be great locations for doctor/outpatient, law, appraisal, accounting, design, etc offices and great locations for spas and small financial businesses if we allowed small office buildings.  Galleries and shops could go in the ground floor/lobby.  It would be slightly similar to Coral Gables in Miami, which is not served by the Metro, but is still easy to use and has easy parking.

Neither do I. Even Riverside & Avondale aren't really "connected" in a sense that I can move freely between the two. I can huff it by biking between them, but lets get real, most people arent going to do that.

This is why if they ever build something like this, they HAVE to connect to the rest of the core right off the bat (Avondale, Riverside, Downtown, Springfield, San Marco, etc). These areas in themselves in the grand scheme of things (especially their business districts) aren't big at all. These little shopping villages like Avondale have & like Five Points have aren't dense enough to support an entire streetcar line (or whatever) on their own. And as far as true urban environments go, they're kind of "sleepy" (stuff closes early, not much going on on weeknights, etc).

Now if you could get someone living in Avondale over to San Marco or up to Springfield in a safe, affordable manner that's consistent, then you might be onto something. Until then, I wouldn't even try it.