How To Spot The Next Hot Neighborhood

[simms3]

Nashville's commuter rail ridership has actually been on the increase breaking over 1,100 last month. 100 away from their goal of 1,200 riders a day. The density argument has been debunked by Charlotte alone! You do not need density of housing units for commuter rail to work, what you do need is a dense employment center.

I have a chart (not on my computer) that gives a general feasibility for all transit systems.  It includes everything from express busses to feeder busses with 10 minute headways to walk up BRT to PandR BRT to LRT to HRT to commuter rail to everything.  Most systems need at least one of two things: residential density for walk up and heavy employment center (like at least Uptown Charlotte's size) for park and ride.  Our density is just not there for even many feeder bus lines to come around every 10 minutes, which is why our busses often come around once an hour or longer.  And our densest, 2nd largest employment center is not quite large enough by 99% of the unofficial standards.  We need at least 15 million SF and ~75,000 workers in one compact area.  The Southside is certainly not that, and our downtown is STRUGGLING to hit even 67% of those numbers.

Perhaps a well implemented park and ride rail system can help bring our numbers for downtown up and spur development there, but it would be a gamble at this point.

Also, 1,100 riders a day up from about 800?  That’s lower than our Skyway!!  Commuter rail is meant for park and ride and is not oten meant to spur dense infill development like LRT, streetcars, and HRT do.  It can be cheap, but not always.  If I were a Jacksonville taxpayer I can easily tell you that even though I am a public transit proponent, I would not support spending any money on commuter rail yet, and no streetcars/LRT until I know that developers will be able to come in and actually build infill without our neighborhood/city political organizations making it too difficult for them.

Circulators like streetcars build density. If you want more density, you put in the type of transportation network that generates it.  A trip to a city like Memphis or Portland proves this.  Instead about worrying about density, more focus should be given to creating seamless front door connectivity between walkable destinations. Do this and you'll find that density in the form of more complementing walkable development will begin to grow around your investment.

I agree to almost 100% of your point, but with RAP and SPAR how the hell are we going to build density when we had quite a time just approving a contemporary single family home in Springfield...a neighborhood with SOOOO many empty lots just waiting for anything?  Also, Memphis has much more of an old, dense network of buildings that have been converted to lofts.  We got rid of all of those buildings here in Jax and now we have huge neighborhoods with single family homes, limited lots (except in Springfield) and organizations with sway who seem to not want to build up or build in different, new architectural styles.  We can put a system in, and in other cities it might spur development, but in Jax it won’t until we change our development system/political process.

Portland also has seen "new" high density infill development, even in historical areas.  SPAR and RAP would never allow that here in Jax.

Hey you know I read that a modern house going to go up on walnut street in springfield! Thats friggin awesome right?

Yes.

[fieldafm]

And why does Hogan's creek come up in every thread nowadays?

b/c of this:

Instead about worrying about density, more focus should be given to creating seamless front door connectivity between walkable destinations. Do this and you'll find that density in the form of more complementing walkable development will begin to grow around your investment.

Every major study done downtown emphasizes the importance of restoring the Hogans Creek/Klutho Park Greenbelt.  Check it out for yourself.  Start by looking up the Downtown Master Plan currently available at coj.net.  You can also check out studies done by DVI and JCCI on this very subject, or Cornerstone's recent trip to Indy.  All of them identify this greenbelt as a fundamental key to connectivity, yet our current leaders turn their back on this very subject.

Currently the surrounding urban core neighborhoods are literally cutoff from downtown.  Reconnecting and eliminating the no-mans land choking off the core neighborhoods are fundamental to revitilization. 

Take a look at the connection from Downtown Orlando/Lake Eola/Thornton Park.  I posted some pictures from my trip to Orlando two weeks ago.  This is the perfect example and it doesn't take an expensive trip to Indianapolis to see how urban development works when done correctly.

[fieldafm]

Perhaps a well implemented park and ride rail system can help bring our numbers for downtown up and spur development there, but it would be a gamble at this point.

Simms, I'm going to be in Atlanta in a few weeks... we should hook up.  I'll bring the Bold City so you can stop drinking that pisswater from 420 they try to serve you up in Dekalb/Fulton County.

What's a bigger gamble?  A functional, integrated transit system the likes of which this city hasn't seen in 40 years for about the cost of the proposed new overpass at JTB/95... or 10 more $200+million highway projects?

[thelakelander]

I have a chart (not on my computer) that gives a general feasibility for all transit systems.  It includes everything from express busses to feeder busses with 10 minute headways to walk up BRT to PandR BRT to LRT to HRT to commuter rail to everything.  Most systems need at least one of two things: residential density for walk up and heavy employment center (like at least Uptown Charlotte's size) for park and ride.  Our density is just not there for even many feeder bus lines to come around every 10 minutes, which is why our busses often come around once an hour or longer.  And our densest, 2nd largest employment center is not quite large enough by 99% of the unofficial standards.  We need at least 15 million SF and ~75,000 workers in one compact area.  The Southside is certainly not that, and our downtown is STRUGGLING to hit even 67% of those numbers.

If I were you, I'd take that chart with a grain of salt. History has proven that transportation stimulates development, not the other way around.  For every place you can find with at least 15 million SF, I can find a decent example of a well run and attractive system below that number.  On top of that, those places with +15 million most likely already had the transit in place, which encouraged the higher density they enjoy today.

If I were a Jacksonville taxpayer I can easily tell you that even though I am a public transit proponent, I would not support spending any money on commuter rail yet, and no streetcars/LRT until I know that developers will be able to come in and actually build infill without our neighborhood/city political organizations making it too difficult for them.

Being a Jax taxpayer, I favor the most cost effective solution.  If it's not mass transit, then you're spending more tax money on subsidizing roads, which promote more low density development.  So at some point, you have to make a choice.  Recently, we've seen cities like Charlotte, Salt Lake City and St. Louis turn to cost efficient mass transit options to help build more sustainable dense urban environments.

Circulators like streetcars build density. If you want more density, you put in the type of transportation network that generates it.  A trip to a city like Memphis or Portland proves this.  Instead about worrying about density, more focus should be given to creating seamless front door connectivity between walkable destinations. Do this and you'll find that density in the form of more complementing walkable development will begin to grow around your investment.

I agree to almost 100% of your point, but with RAP and SPAR how the hell are we going to build density when we had quite a time just approving a contemporary single family home in Springfield...a neighborhood with SOOOO many empty lots just waiting for anything?

Springfield and Riverside already have decent density.  Nevertheless, why the focus on these communities?  The Cathedral District, Brooklyn, LaVilla, New Springfield, Sugar Hill, St. Nicholas, etc. are places where we should also be encouraging contemporary infill that's not subject to historic district regulations.

Also, Memphis has much more of an old, dense network of buildings that have been converted to lofts.  We got rid of all of those buildings here in Jax and now we have huge neighborhoods with single family homes, limited lots (except in Springfield) and organizations with sway who seem to not want to build up or build in different, new architectural styles.  We can put a system in, and in other cities it might spur development, but in Jax it won’t until we change our development system/political process.

Memphis' streetcar began operation in 1993.  Most of the lofts you talk about came after that.  In fact, many are forms of TOD.  While we've destroyed DT's density, we still have urban neighborhoods with their building fabric in place.  Durkeeville and New Springfield are two that come to mind.  I believe the 2030 Mobility Plan is also proof that the political side of things are changing as well.  Five years from now, we'll have a better idea on if the recent planning acts actually pay off.

[Doctor_K]

...Commuter rail?  I'm worried it will be a huge failure like Nashville's with fewer than a thousand riders a day simply because our traffic is nowhere near bad enough...

Car-driving commuters on Blanding, US 17, Baymeadows, Beach, Atlantic, and Normandy would probably tend to disagree.

[Captain Zissou]

Simms, I'm going to be in Atlanta in a few weeks... we should hook up.  I'll bring the Bold City so you can stop drinking that pisswater from 420 they try to serve you up in Dekalb/Fulton County.

Bold City?  No way, bring him some Intuition. 

If the greenway is restored, is there sufficient space to run a path somehow under State and Union between springfield and DT??  A bike path along the creek from Klutho Park up to the Riverwalk would be amazing, but the main obstacle is State and Union. 

The ironic thing is that that path would basically be a State/Union for bikers, carrying them like an expressway through downtown.  Riders would be able to hop off anywhere on the North-South line, but they could use it to bypass downtown all together. 

[simms3]

Perhaps a well implemented park and ride rail system can help bring our numbers for downtown up and spur development there, but it would be a gamble at this point.

Simms, I'm going to be in Atlanta in a few weeks... we should hook up.  I'll bring the Bold City so you can stop drinking that pisswater from 420 they try to serve you up in Dekalb/Fulton County.

What's a bigger gamble?  A functional, integrated transit system the likes of which this city hasn't seen in 40 years for about the cost of the proposed new overpass at JTB/95... or 10 more $200+million highway projects?

Yes, I hate Sweetwater!  LoL  Just let me know via DM (sadly, I may not be here because I have a scheduled interview in Hong Kong on the 27th, but I may not be going because that's also an expensive gamble and I'm not yet proficient by any means with writing or speaking Putonghua or Cantonese/traditional Chinese and there is a written test).

Also, if I knew that we had policies in place to incentivize walkable development and TODs and higher density, even in our historic districts, then I would be 150% for spending whatever it takes, tax hikes and all, to build a complete system.  As of now, I am worried that commuter rail won't work in Jax and will be a flat waste/sunk cost on our books and I'm worried that even streetcars won't spur anything because we have way too much red tape and unfriendly policies (ironic coming from a conservative "less government" city).

I think Lake brings up a good point that the ball is rolling , but I'm still at a "wait and see" and "push better policies" stage rather than let's spend hundreds of millions of dollars or more on a system that will only work with better policies already in place and more political support.

[thelakelander]

Nashville's commuter rail struggles for riders because it serves a corridor with no people, adjacent walkable destinations, or real congestion.  It also doesn't help that the service is pretty in frequent.  With the service issue aside, a corridor like the line between DT Jax and Clay County has just about everything Nashville's corridor lacks.

[thelakelander]

Also, if I knew that we had policies in place to incentivize walkable development and TODs and higher density, even in our historic districts, then I would be 150% for spending whatever it takes, tax hikes and all, to build a complete system.

The 2030 Mobility Plan modified our land use policies this past year, so what you describe is in place.  Also, the transportation side of the plan has a funding mechanism to pay for associated transportation improvements (roads, transit, bike and ped).  So, tax increases may not be needed at all.

[dougskiles]

After the recent threads/developments posted unfolding in San Marco, that will easily become the first hip, dense, mixed use neighborhood in Jacksonville simply because that's what they want and they don't have to cowtow to San Marco Preservation.

I'm glad to hear your optimism for San Marco, Simms3.  But I have to point out that San Marco Preservation Society IS the driving force behind the smart growth plan, San Marco by Design, that was featured recently in this forum.

Yes, we believe in the preservation of historic buildings.  Even more so, we are about quality of life.  Hence the focus is more on events, parks, neighborhood improvement plans and promoting our local businesses.

[simms3]

Well it seems to be less of a burden on developers than RAP or SPAR.  Just knowing what some people in Avondale have to go through just to have something changed with their private house is not a good sign for developers who may want to build affordable lofts in a contemporary building somewhere in Avondale or Riverside.  I've seen the overlay, etc, and I've seen progress, but I'm thinking are Avondale and Riverside forever going to be entirely single family housing?  Is there even land for new mixed use infill without knocking down a couple of homes?  Would SPAR even give a 100 unit, 6 floor modern apartment building a chance on one of their contiguous empty lots?  It seems like they will hold out for more SRG homes.

And I go back and forth on my thoughts on demolition of houses in Springfield, but I'm in a wishy washy pro-demolition of certain houses phase.  I want to see Jacksonville become a walkable, dense city that *can* support mass transit.  We won't get there with our current density levels in the core and with only single family housing.  We need higher density.  We need more freedom of architectural expression.  We are beginning to implement better policies, finally.  Are SPAR and RAP going to be on board?

If I lived in any of our core neighborhoods as they stand, I would walk when I can if convenient (but with only single family, shops and the grocery store could be 5+ blocks away) and I doubt I would take public transit.  Even here in Atlanta, which has the most extensive system in the South and I live across from a station, I DRIVE 90% OF THE TIME!  This in a dense city with pockets of walkability.  It's too easy and convenient even with Atlanta's scope, and many garages are free or cheap and put you right where the stores/grocery stores are.  Jacksonville isn't even close to that yet, and we expect everyone to ditch their cars for streetcars or LRT or commuter rail?  The traffic in Jax isn't even that bad!

I mean would RAP and SPAR even allow the kind of new development that has transformed 5th Ave in Naples to transform Avondale, King Street, and Main Street?  5th Ave is a destination.  Avondale and Riverside and Springfield are where you go to eat and maybe have a drink and then drive back home.  Just saying.  Have to play devil's advocate here.

[tufsu1]

I'll bring the Bold City so you can stop drinking that pisswater from 420

+1

[peestandingup]

4. Ride The Rail

Once auto-centric Dallas is another example of how real-estate opportunities perk up alongside rail-based mass transit corridors.  Since launching its light rail system in 1996, Dallas has witnessed billions in transit-oriented development sprout up around its system.  With more rail lines planned for Dallas, Seattle, Charlotte and other cities, is the next hot neighborhood a future train stop around the corner from you?

No, because rail is never coming to Jax.  I'd love to know when metrojax started talking about rail.  Well, it would actually be the site we were all on before we came to metrojax.  Was that '05? Earlier?

I'm starting to lose faith in rail and Jax.  The next mayor needs to get our city on the right track and our citizens need to pull their heads out of the sand.  Jax's government and citizens are still living in 1997, the rest of the world is not.

+1 Gen Y will be in retirement homes down in Boca before the first commuter station is up & running.

This.

I too am starting to grow tired of this fight. I sorta get the impression from lack of action that we're just all screaming into the dark. It's very difficult to try to influence an entire town that are either asleep or just hunky dory with the way things are. All the while as we watch other cities that are similiarly sized (or smaller) moving & shaking, actually getting things done & are light years ahead of us already.

At this point, one has to put these things into broader perspective & realistically look at just how long it would take to get Jax to a point that we'd all like to see in these regards.

2030 plan?? I'm just saying, I'll be in my 50s by then. I already feel like I've sorta wasted a lot of my last 4 years on Earth here already because not one thing has actually been done. 

[thelakelander]

Food for thought....

Length of select rail systems & their daily ridership today

21.5 miles (17,300 riders/day) - New Orleans

20 miles (37,400/day) - Phoenix

12 miles (35,000/day) - Minneapolis

9.6 miles (20,200/day) - Charlotte

7.5 miles (35,000/day) - Houston

6.7 miles (3,800/day) - Memphis

6.4 miles (18,800/day) - Buffalo

2.5 miles (340/day) - Little Rock

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_light_rail_systems_by_ridership


The 2030 mobility plan and TPO's 2035 LRTP have nearly 100 miles of rail in them.  If we can accomplish that much network in 20 years, that will be really impressive.  However, let's not not kid ourselves.  Our city is a county.  However, our actual urban core is relatively small.  In other words, all we really need is about 5 - 10 mile starter that ties in our urban neighborhoods with DT and we'll be well on our way to creating a decent walkable center.  There's no reason we can't have that within five years or so.

Btw, take a look at the New Orleans, Phoenix and Houston numbers.  There goes the density argument.  Being able to use your transit line to tie in people directly with where they want to go is much more important than overall community density or attempting to extend your transit spine to every nook and cranny of a sprawled out county.

[simms3]

Yea, but it won't be walkable with large swaths of single family homes.  Walkable implies mixed use density and Riverside and San Marco kinda sorta can be walkable but Avondale is too low density.  Will RAP and SPAR allow developers to come in and make Avondale and Riverside and Springfield walkable, even if that means leveling a few of the older houses/buildings?  There is no point in "spurring economic development/TODs" if said TODs and higher density developments can't actually be built due to historic preservation nazis, and mass transit alone won't spur the change we need downtown, especially since the residents of these neighborhoods that work downtown love their comfortable cars and don't have to fight traffic.

I mean, just from experience, if it's easier and more convenient for me to use a car just to get around Midtown Atlanta even though I live across from an HRT subway station on the most extensive system in the South, then how are we going to convince enough people in Avondale, Riverside, San Marco, Lakewood, Springfield, etc to ditch their cars and walk a few blocks past other houses to get to a transit stop?  Especially when there is already no traffic in our urban core.  Midtown is denser than our downtown in terms of residents, office workers, and retail, with heavier traffic, and it's still easier to use a car in most cases.  Our "dense" neighborhoods are entirely single family, and not as dense as they are in New Orleans.