Will higher gas prices create market for urban living?

[Jason]

I've been wondering what everyone's opinion is on the idea that higher gas prices could create a stronger market for urban living.

With the discussions in other threads about the threat of gas hitting $4 or even $5 per gallon, my thoughts are that despite the slow housing market, people my be forced into moving closer to work and/or replace their commute with a train or bus thereby creating a stronger market for urban living and transit.

What is everyone else's take?

[Doctor_K]

Trains?  What Trains?   

In all seriousness though, I don't know that the majority of folks who live on the Westside and/or Orange Park, who commute primarily to the South Side would be willing to move across the river.  Strictly speaking from my limited experience at my office (a local medical supply company), I have a LOT of colleagues who live 'out there' who would never think of moving closer to where they work.  They moved to the O.P. or West Side for a reason, and they're going to stay.  And subsequently complain about the high gas prices anyway.

I wonder what other people working in other places might think?

[jbm32206]

I don't think it will really have much impact...and only would, if downtown would actually come alive and offer more housing opportunities.

[Jason]

Well what about the ex-urban commuters from surrounding counties?


Oh, also, my question wasn't specific to Jacksonville. 

[thelakelander]

I think it can have an impact.  In some places it already is.

High-rise urban living in Texas?

This is the largest state in the contiguous USA, stretching more than 700 miles from east to west and north to south, and space often seems infinite. Here, living large â€" and spread out â€" hasn't been just a choice but almost a birthright.

However, Perot's development â€" and similar plans by other developers in Austin, Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio â€" have put Texas on the front lines of a movement reshaping downtowns across the USA.

What changed here?

Gas prices soared. Traffic congestion choked highways. Air quality worsened and so did pressure from environmental regulators. Light-rail lines came online. And demographics shifted: As baby boomers became empty nesters, their desire for convenience and fun suddenly merged with those of young professionals. Both groups are flocking to urban settings.

"People are tired of the big house, they're tired of the big yard, and there's a real movement to simplify your lifestyle as children leave," Perot says. "You can move into a beautiful downtown home, walk to the arts, walk to a basketball game, walk to restaurants. There is something unique in the downtown fabric that you couldn't get in the suburbs."

Texas now is home to three of the nation's 10 most populous cities (Houston, Dallas, San Antonio). Its population continues to grow at phenomenal rates: It added 4 million people in the 1990s and more than 2.5 million so far this decade to top 23.5 million, second only to California.

As people pour in, the state is starting to rein in its historical outward spread and venturing into un-Texan territory: high-density development, downtown living, mass transit and neighborhoods built not just for cars, but for walkers and all things urban.

"The competitive advantage of the six or 10 'real' cities in the country is that they offered unrivaled urban living," says Robert Lang, director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech. "What you have now is a much larger number of places where you can live an urban lifestyle.

"More and more cities see their built form as part of the sale, part of the calculus," he says. "If all you have is a dead downtown and strip malls, you're toast. There's a big part of the workforce that just won't tolerate that anymore."

Texas is rapidly learning that lesson. Its cities are growing up â€" literally. High-rises, multilevel apartment and condominium buildings are rising in downtowns, on old industrial sites and in abandoned neighborhoods.

full article: www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-10-03-verticaltexas_N.htm

[thelakelander]

"More and more cities see their built form as part of the sale, part of the calculus," he says. "If all you have is a dead downtown and strip malls, you're toast. There's a big part of the workforce that just won't tolerate that anymore."

Recent census numbers, showing these Texas cities as the fastest growing, despite a slowing economy, would suggest that this is true.

[thelakelander]

Another good article about high gas prices and the effect on suburb vs. urban development.

Could rising gas prices kill the suburbs?

When a high-cost commute reaches the point of no-return, home buyers will start finding houses closer to work. In fact, some already are.

full article: http://realestate.msn.com/buying/articlenewhome.aspx?cp-documentid=742526

[lindab]

Lucky folks like us were able to move into the urban area, cut our car mileage from 25,000 mi/yr to 8000/yr, live-work in same place, spend more time on foot or bike and save money.

But, everyone else is not going to be able to do the same. Highrise infill isn't possible for everyone.  Suburbs are already built and in need of true creative redesign.

[Jason]

Great info Lake.

Suburbs aren't necessarily bad if designed properly (see Springfield, Riverside, San Marco, etc.).  Suburbs cater to a different type of person that may not like the urban lifestyle, however, they should cater to them by limiting their need for a car.  I consider myself a bit of an outdoorsman and love my yard, but once the kids are gone I'm all for packing it all up and moving to a condo tower downtown.  Most families would likely prefer their own little piece of paradise but that paradise can certainly be in a much more "urban" setting such as our historic neighborhoods.  My commute today is only 30 minutes from St. Augustine and the cost of gas is still killing me.  I for one have been putting some serious thought into uprooting my family of 5 (a big deal) and moving to San Marco to be closer to work as well as everything else.  The problem I see in the short term is not being able to sell my rural property due to the poor market conditions.  If things do work out in my favor, I may just be looking for a home closer to home in the next year or so.  I have a hard time believing my situation is unique.  Its likely something on the minds of many commuters here and elsewhere around the country.

[JaxNole]

I don't think paying $4 per gallon is a dramatic enough increase in commuting costs to consider moving to a more urban location.  The costs associated with selling suburban property and acquiring property closer to a CBD may not gain enough favor until fuel costs exceed more than, say, an arbitrary $7 per gallon.  Adjustments with discretionary spending are being made, such as dining out, going to the movies and making one-stop driving trips less infrequently to compensate for increased commuting costs.  I would appreciate gas prices hovering around $2 per gallon, but it seems we factor in the cost of fuel as almost a necessity and adjust when needed.

[Jason]

You have a very valid point JaxNole, but how long will these people continue to pinch pennies and put their activites and desires on hold just to be able to afford to drive to work?

[Jimmy]

There's another dimension to this.  As the workers who moved way out to the suburbs advance in their jobs, they'll be in better positions to telecommute or otherwise work-from-home.  Technology is making this very possible.  Virtual presence is a lot cheaper than the costs pointed out by JaxNole.  Even an arrangement where the worker drives "in to town" once or twice a week could be viewed as preferable to uprooting their lives in the 'burbs.

I know that Prudential has been leading this effort in Jacksonville.  Whole teams of people who used to work daily on the Southbank now do their jobs from their homes using a VPN, VoIP, and a little creativity.  Aside from those of us committed to rebuilding Jacksonville's core, there's emerging a real Third Way for many information (insurance, call center, finance, creative) workers.

These days even I work from home.  Of course my office is in Tallahassee now.  But I'm just saying...

[Jason]

Another great point.  My job is able to be done remotely from home, however, my boss hasn't been very supportive of that idea although he works from his home on a regular basis on a connection I set up for him. 

Does anyone know if there are local carpooling programs available for commuters?

[Lunican]

eRideShare.com lets you find people to carpool with. It's kind of like hitchhiking.

http://www.erideshare.com/carpool.php?&search=32202

[Jason]

Neat site, thanks Lunican.  I've seen sites and services like this in many other cities but didn't know Jax had one as well.

Anyone ever used it sucessfully?