Can Downtown Survive?

[tufsu1]

#1 - they haven't moved yet
#2 - please cite your sources

[tufsu1]

Why do you keep moving the ball?

Why shouldn't government employees count....what would downtown Washington DC (and their 10% vacancy rate) be like without government employees....or what about Austin, TX?

[tufsu1]

My opinion wont change whatever the actual numbers are

I figured that out already

[ChriswUfGator]

Ok...here's what I have been able to find out so far

1. City employees downtown do pay for parking, including the Mayor
2. There are about 1800 city employees in the Ed Ball Building

I have no additional data on all of downtown yet (other than the 18,000 and 56,000 figures from the 2009 report)...but hopefully we can all to agree on these minimal employmen estimtes for the core:

AT&T building - 1600
Ed Ball building - 1800
Life of the South - 500
Modis - at least 1500
BOA Tower - at least 1500
CSX - at least 500
City Hall - at least 300
City Hall Annex - at least 300
Total - at least 8,000
Note that this doesn't include the SunTrust Tower, the Wachovia Tower, the county courthouse, the old city hall annex, the Yates building, the Landing, the library, the Federal courthouse, and all of the smaller buildfings throughout downtown

Bottom line....hopefully we all agree that downtown needs more people working, living, eating, and recreating there...and while it is important that we not mask or hide our problems, we also can't go off screaming about all of the failures and downtown's eminent demise...if we do, it may very well become a self-fulfilling prophecy.  

First off, you're including 2,400 COJ workers, but whatever.

Secondly, after all that debate where I've been arguing that the true figure is around 6,000 and you've been claiming first that it's really 51,000, then later 25,000, then still later 18,000 (I feel like we're having a negotiation), when the actual figure (including the 2,400 COJ workers that I don't think should be included...since I was talking COMMERCE not GOVERNMENT) is indeed 8,000, and I don't even have point out that more than the entire difference between your figure and mine is the 2,400 COJ workers.

I'll even give you that 2,400...the truth is that these pathetic numbers in a downtown this size is utterly tragic, is the sign of a dead urban core, and represents a total and complete policy failure.

[ChriswUfGator]

No doubt!

I personally believe the vacancy rate downtown, excluding single-tenant buildings, federal and city buildings, and all the other crap that is no doubt being lumped in there to produce tha 20% figure, is realisitically around 40% and worsening.

Tufsu has said where he gets his figures.... Where do you get 40%?  Is there an article?  A report?  Rumor?

Why do you keep going to such lenghts to ignore the fact that I referred to the very same source Tufsu did?

And did you miss the fact that Tufsu just came back and acknowledged the true figure is 8,000, and he's still including 2,400 COJ employees in even THAT figure? (And of course, that's more the difference between his 8k and my 6k figures right there, and his estimates on the Modis and BOA buildings are off by 1000+)

Not that he'd ever phrase it that way, but we already have essentially agreed with each other on the figures.

[ChriswUfGator]

So lets look at those figures again minus the public service employees.


AT&T building - 1600
Ed Ball building - 1800
Life of the South - 500
Modis -  600
BOA Tower - 1200
CSX - 500
City Hall -300
City Hall Annex -300
Total - at least 8,000

And keep in mind that CSX is occupying several floors of the ATT building.

4,400 people not employed by the city.  maybe.

Glad we got a true and accurate count. FINALLY.

I'm effin' sick of people arguing there are 50k+ people downtown, yada, yada, yada. That kind of disingenuous statistical manipulation disguises how bad the problem really is in the core, which, as I've been saying and as has now been established, is dead.

I have to admit, now that we are finally coming to an agreement on the figures, even I'm shocked at the truth of how bad it really is. This represents a complete and total policy failure. Something simply must be done, immediately.

[tufsu1]

And did you miss the fact that Tufsu just came back and acknowledged the true figure is 8,000, and he's still including 1,800 COJ employees in even THAT figure? (Of course, that's the difference between his 8k and my 6k figures)

wow...eiether you misread or purposefully omitted what I said....

I said the # was 8,000 with this caveat:

"Note that this doesn't include the SunTrust Tower, the Wachovia Tower, the county courthouse, the old city hall annex, the Yates building, the Landing, the library, the Federal courthouse, and all of the smaller buildings throughout downtown"

I still believe the 50,000+ figure for all of the CBD area and the 18,000 figure quoted for the core was accurate in 2009...and yes, the total includes government workers...in the core, they probably represent about 1/3 of the total.

[ChriswUfGator]

And did you miss the fact that Tufsu just came back and acknowledged the true figure is 8,000, and he's still including 1,800 COJ employees in even THAT figure? (Of course, that's the difference between his 8k and my 6k figures)

wow...eiether you misread or purposefully omitted what I said....

I said the # was 8,000 with this caveat:

"Note that this doesn't include the SunTrust Tower, the Wachovia Tower, the county courthouse, the old city hall annex, the Yates building, the Landing, the library, the Federal courthouse, and all of the smaller buildings throughout downtown"

I still believe the 50,000+ figure for all of the CBD area and the 18,000 figure quoted for the core was accurate in 2009...and yes, the total includes government workers...in the core, they probably represent about 1/3 of the total.

The SunTrust tower is almost entirely entirely empty, so is Wachovia. Your BOA tower estimate is easily off by almost 1,000, and the Modis building has 500-600 workers at most. Additionally, you're including 2,400 government workers that have their own parking. And you're apparently glossing over the fact that you have indeed been arguing grossly inflated figures for the Northbank. There is NO WAY 18,000 people are employed there.

And when you say government workers "pay to park" that isn't entirely/effectively true. The salaried professional positions generally have parking included, and the rank-and-file get steep discounts on city-owned parking, and an allowance for the remainder is generally built into their salaries when the positions are established. If parking costs you $40 a month and I pay you $40,480, or I pay you $40,000 with free parking, then are you really paying for parking either way?

When you figure there are maybe 1,000 other workers scattered throughout the non-governmental private offices that aren't in large buildings, and the few restaurants still left down there (and sorry, despite your claim to the contrary, Winn-Dixie doesn't actually count as a restaurant), then you still have to account for the fact that our downtown is so pathetic that these small private offices have generally been able to buy the building or two next to them and tear it down to make private parking lots. So these people also generally aren't using metered spaces or garages either. And these offices are largely law firms, bail bondsmen, and insurance businesses, which are all non-labor intensive.

Downtown has around 35,000 parking spaces of all varieties according to COJ, and as we're now discovering, it's looking like each and every single worker would have to bring FOUR OR FIVE CARS APIECE EVERY SINGLE DAY before we'd ever come close to having a shortage of parking down there.

So I guess we should bring this back to the point. Since the claims of "total chaos" and "parking shortages" have been so thoroughly debunked that it defies belief, what exactly is your problem with getting rid of all the asinine rules and restrictions on parking? Who's it going to hurt?

[tufsu1]

I'm willing to bet there are more than 5,000 workers in the BOA and Modis buildings combined....heck, the Modis building alone is probably over 1 million square feet of leasable area....assuming 3 workers/1000 sf and only 50% occupancy, you still get 3300+ employees

Modis - at least 1500
BOA Tower - at least 1500

hmm.

still willing to make that bet?

Especially in light of the new figures with addeco leaving?

as my final post on this matter, sure thing...I'll take that bet

Addeco/Modis has 375 people working on 5 1/2 floors....so yes, it is still entirely conceivable that 1500-2000 people work on the other 30 floors

and, btw, they haven't moved yet...so those 375 employees still count!

[ChriswUfGator]

and, btw, they haven't moved yet...so those 375 employees still count!

That's preposterous!

What next? When your aunt Susie dies, are you gonna just ignore it and keep propping up the dead body for the holiday photos? That goose is cooked, stick a fork in it already.

[ChriswUfGator]

Good call on the Modis building's leaseable square footage there, Tufsu. The 1MM leasable square feet you stated turned out being 625k. So you were only off by a full 375,000 ft sq, or a mere 62.5% of the actual figure. And by comparison, I bet Atlantic Place's 100k leasable square feet (90% of which is vacant) doesn't seem so "insignificant" now does it?

But I digress. The real point here is that the figures are obviously coming in right where I said they would, not coincidentally because they came from DVI, which monitors this stuff and is aware of how pathetic the situation is...even if they don't publish it on their website for a variety of reasons I won't get into.

Sooo...since the core is down from 80,000 workers to less than 10,000 (I'm even giving you all the COJ/Govt employees that really shouldn't be counted) in the past decade, are you willing to admit that the current slate of policies has been disastrous? And maybe you should rethink your stance on the asinine parking policies in particular, since many of the businesses which have fled the sinking ship that is our core have actually cited that very issue in making their decision to leave. And the exodus continues even now...

I have never seen the commercial destruction and ruin of an urban environment on this scale, anywhere, ever before. This situation represents a complete and total policy failure.

[ChriswUfGator]

I think its possible that we might have a historic failure of a city core.  Maybe on a par with Detroits.

Actually, worse. No joke.

[BridgeTroll]

the asinine parking policies in particular, since many of the businesses which have fled the sinking ship that is our core have actually cited that very issue in making their decision to leave.

Something does not add up.  I have always agreed that COJ street parking with antiquated policies and meters should go but if...

Downtown has around 35,000 parking spaces of all varieties according to COJ, and as we're now discovering, it's looking like each and every single worker would have to bring FOUR OR FIVE CARS APIECE EVERY SINGLE DAY before we'd ever come close to having a shortage of parking down there.

Then spaces isnt an issue for workers and companies.

I suppose the cost of parking could be an issue...

And when you say government workers "pay to park" that isn't entirely/effectively true. The salaried professional positions generally have parking included, and the rank-and-file get steep discounts on city-owned parking, and an allowance for the remainder is generally built into their salaries when the positions are established. If parking costs you $40 a month and I pay you $40,480, or I pay you $40,000 with free parking, then are you really paying for parking either way?

Are you saying the city should subsidize parking for employees of companies downtown?

[ChriswUfGator]

subsidize?

Thats the most asinine word for 'remove an asinine tax' i think ive ever heard.

Beat me to it.

The issue is that the current policies have created an artificially high cost for something that there is an overabundance of and virtually no demand for. If you got rid of the current asinine approach to the issue, then the market would take its course and the situation would correct itself in short order.

[BridgeTroll]

Explain it to me slowly then...   Chris says companies are leaving because of parking issues.  Cool.  He then goes on to explain that there is an overabundance of parking.  Since lack of spaces clearly is not the issue then it must be cost to park in garages and such.

Just trying to understand... I may not be the only one who is not quite following you.