Can Downtown Survive?

[ChriswUfGator]

Ok, so if Fidelity, Everbank, BCBS, Prudential, and Aetna are say 350k square feet total and are say 90% leased... but a bunch of smaller buildings surrounding them totalling 150k square feet are 30% leased... that total data set has an occupancy rate of 72%.  Just because there are some completely empty buildings sitting around doesnt mean the entire data set is somehow innacurate when looking at top line numbers.

I very much agree with you that there is SIGNIFICANT underutilization in DT office space... but you can't infer Cushman is somehow lieing, thats a little disingenious.

We know how math works...thanks.

The problem is that these stats are including things they shouldn't, like government facilities and single-tenant buildings, which have no bearing on the market for commercial space.

But, many buildings downtown aren't single tennant.  Take Prudential or BCBS for example.  Poll someone in Jacksonville and ask if they are single tennant buildings and 9 out of 10 will tell you they are.

I have to get back to work... look, Im against the current parking policies downtown and for downtown development and all that jazz... but spending all day long arguing about a top line figure is so unproductive.  I really hope I get the opportunity to look at the detailed market report in the morning.

There is actually a significant amount of space that is wholly single-tenant. CSX and Fidelity National Financial are two large complexes I can think of right off the top of my head. The government buildings obviously belong to that list as well.

[tufsu1]

Not to mention the disingenuous part of trying to change the subject.

The discussion is about the number of people working downtown.

TUFSU lost that discussion a few pages back and tried to imply lots of workers by implying that all the space was rented.

wait a minute...I'm the one changing the subject?

#1 - Chris is now subtracting single-tenant buildings like CSX...as if their space and workers don't count
#2 - Check back a few pages and you'll find this...

Stephendare: It would be interesting to know how much total commercial space has been destroyed in the downtown in the past 25 years since this whole 'redevelopment' bs has been going on.  I would be willing to bet that it has been demolished to a third of the previously available space.

TUFSU1: you may be right...but that has nothing to do with the vacancy rate or the # of workers currently in the downtown core.  

[ChriswUfGator]

The discussion is about the number of people working downtown.



Which is ridiculous because the amount of leased space downtown would only be relevant to a discussion about employment if there were a standarad amount of employees per square foot, which there isnt.

There isnt a way to determine what the lowest number of employees is based on the information.

That is absolutely the point.  

That's one point.

The other point was the continually misleading nature of the representations made by one poster during these debates on parking policies.

[Fallen Buckeye]

Again, people living, eating, sleeping, downtown!

I feel you. Missing the forest for the trees here.

[finehoe]

Office Vacancy Rate in U.S. Climbs to 17-Year High as Jobs Recovery Slows

By Hui-yong Yu - Jul 6, 2010

Office vacancies in the U.S. rose to the highest level since 1993 in the second quarter as the sluggish economic recovery damps demand from corporate tenants, Reis Inc. said in a report.

The vacancy rate climbed to 17.4 percent from 16 percent a year earlier and 17.3 percent in the first quarter, the New York-based research company said today in a statement. Effective rents, the amount tenants actually pay landlords, fell 5.7 percent from a year earlier and 0.9 percent from the previous three months, according to Reis.

Private employers made fewer hires in June than economists had forecast, reinforcing concerns the recovery will weaken, the Labor Department said July 2. The report capped a month of data signaling weakness in housing and a slowdown in manufacturing. Including government, payrolls fell for the first time this year because of a drop in federal census workers. The jobless rate declined to 9.5 percent from 9.7 percent in May as the labor force shrank.

“Although occupancy continues to deteriorate, the rate of decline has clearly slowed,” said Ryan Severino, economist at Reis, in the firm’s report. Rents may turn positive later this year if the economy stabilizes, he said.

A total of 7.7 million square feet (715,000 square meters) of office space was completed last quarter, one of the lowest addition levels since Reis began publishing quarterly data in 1999, the firm said.

Office vacancies increased in 49 of 82 cities tracked by Reis, while effective rents fell in 60 markets. The growing number of cities with declining rents reflects concessions granted by landlords, Reis said.

Washington, D.C., remained the city with the lowest office vacancy rate, at 10 percent, according to the firm. New York vacancies stayed at 11.7 percent. Detroit had the highest vacancy rate, at 26.3 percent, amid declining employment in the auto industry, Reis said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Hui-yong Yu in Seattle at hyu@bloomberg.net

®2010 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

[JC]

Again, people living, eating, sleeping, downtown!

I feel you. Missing the forest for the trees here.

Thanks for the acknowledgement!

[tufsu1]

Ok...here's what I have been able to find out so far

1. City employees downtown do pay for parking, including the Mayor
2. There are about 1800 city employees in the Ed Ball Building

I have no additional data on all of downtown yet (other than the 18,000 and 56,000 figures from the 2009 report)...but hopefully we can all to agree on these minimal employmen estimtes for the core:

AT&T building - 1600
Ed Ball building - 1800
Life of the South - 500
Modis - at least 1500
BOA Tower - at least 1500
CSX - at least 500
City Hall - at least 300
City Hall Annex - at least 300
Total - at least 8,000
Note that this doesn't include the SunTrust Tower, the Wachovia Tower, the county courthouse, the old city hall annex, the Yates building, the Landing, the library, the Federal courthouse, and all of the smaller buildfings throughout downtown

Bottom line....hopefully we all agree that downtown needs more people working, living, eating, and recreating there...and while it is important that we not mask or hide our problems, we also can't go off screaming about all of the failures and downtown's eminent demise...if we do, it may very well become a self-fulfilling prophecy.  

[RockStar]

Ok...here's what I have been able to find out so far

1. City employees downtown do pay for parking, including the Mayor
2. There are about 1800 city employees in the Ed Ball Building

I have no additional data on all of downtown yet (other than the 18,000 and 56,000 figures from the 2009 report)...but hopefully we can all to agree on these minimal employmen estimtes for the core:

AT&T building - 1600
Ed Ball building - 1800
Life of the South - 500
Modis - at least 1500
BOA Tower - at least 1500
CSX - at least 500
City Hall - at least 300
City Hall Annex - at least 300
Total - at least 8,000
Note that this doesn't include the SunTrust Tower, the Wachovia Tower, the county courthouse, the old city hall annex, the Yates building, the Landing, the library, the Federal courthouse, and all of the smaller buildfings throughout downtown

Bottom line....hopefully we all agree that downtown needs more people working, living, eating, and recreating there...and while it is important that we not mask or hide our problems, we also can't go off screaming about all of the failures and downtown's eminent demise...if we do, it may very well become a self-fulfilling prophecy.  

Thank you. It took 17 pages of everyone arguing about accuracy to finally get an accurate statement! 

[BridgeTroll]

No doubt!

I personally believe the vacancy rate downtown, excluding single-tenant buildings, federal and city buildings, and all the other crap that is no doubt being lumped in there to produce tha 20% figure, is realisitically around 40% and worsening.

Tufsu has said where he gets his figures.... Where do you get 40%?  Is there an article?  A report?  Rumor?

[Ocklawaha]

Stephendare: It would be interesting to know how much total commercial space has been destroyed in the downtown in the past 25 years since this whole 'redevelopment' bs has been going on.  I would be willing to bet that it has been demolished to a third of the previously available space.

TUFSU1: you may be right...but that has nothing to do with the vacancy rate or the # of workers currently in the downtown core.  

HUH? I think you mean the vacancy rate as a % of the total space currently available... God knows if is just the raw numbers those thousands of folks working in buildings that are no longer there certainly should be notified of their dilemma. Perhaps we can help them all "Cross-Over"...

I'd suggest we all get proactive and start being individual ambassadors of Jacksonville because it's becoming obvious that those we have placed in charge of growing our home have failed miserably. Together we have ceased making a sound and have bowed to wicked masters, a lifestyle we must soon abandon...

Hello darkness, my old friend
I've come to talk with you again
Because a vision softly creeping
Left its seeds while I was sleeping
And the vision that was planted in my brain
Still remains
Within the sound of silence

In restless dreams I walked alone
Narrow streets of cobblestone
'Neath the halo of a street lamp
I turn my collar to the cold and damp
When my eyes were stabbed by the flash of a neon light
That split the night
And touched the sound of silence

And in the naked light I saw
Ten thousand people maybe more
People talking without speaking
People hearing without listening
People writing songs that voices never shared
No one dared
Disturb the sound of silence

"Fools," said I, "you do not know
Silence like a cancer grows
Hear my words that I might teach you
Take my arms that I might reach you"
But my words like silent raindrops fell
And echoed in the wells of silence

And the people bowed and prayed
To the neon god they made
And the sign flashed out its warning
In the words that it was forming
And the sign said "The words of the prophets are written on the subway walls
And tenement halls
And whispered in the sound of silence



OCKLAWAHA

[Ocklawaha]

but Ock....I've learned today that government employees don't count...what would Union Station and the rest of downtown DC be without them? 

" J  A  C  K  S  O  N  V  I  L  L  E  !! "

OCKLAWAHA

[Ocklawaha]

    THE TUNNELS... AND A HORRIBLE MISTAKE OF PURE IGNORANCE!  

Washington's Union Station is a very inspiring place, indeed.  I like to travel by train and I always enjoy it when I have an extended layover in the nation's capital.  Not only is there an abundance of retail and dining, the station is located where I can roam around the city and play tourist.  During one train stop, I wandered into the Supreme Court building to observe the justices announce a ruling.  Another time I was in town, I got to see a motorcade carrying Chile's president from the Capitol.  

I have repeatedly complained about how terrible our current Amtrak station is.  I feel like I have been beating my head against a wall because it seems that nobody (outside of Ock and me) actually want to have a thriving passenger rail station that could help us bring some life to downtown Jacksonville.  It would be nice to find a city leader who actually gave a crap.  Well, I will have to dream on...

Union station is pretty awesome.  But really my favorite part of DC Metro is the Rosslyn Station escalator!  Its like 4 or 5 stories high and is continuous!

Take comfort my friend, there are THOUSANDS of us and we are really just starting to be heard. Amazing progress has been made in the last 4 years and I'm looking at it through a 30 year window (that's how long since I first brought the Streetcar Plan to city hall).  JTA director and planning are on-board for Streetcar, Expanded Amtrak, Downtown Station, Skyway improvements and more. You can also count most of MJ'S 300,000+ monthly readers, COJ planning, several city council members and virtually every mayoral candidates.

I would suggest that we mothball the Clifford Lane Station for use as a future park and ride commuter facility, expand parking so it reaches US-1 and provides wide open, landscaped, well lit, parking. The train servicing facilities will need to be moved to the area of JTA'S yard or the south side of Honeymoon Yard at which time the Clifford Lane Commissary, baggage, mail, kitchen facilities and crew rooms would shift to JACKSONVILLE TERMINAL. These extra buildings could be razed leaving only the Clifford Lane Station, add an improved double lane bus loop with angled pull out parking, a kiss and ride lane, and BRT services to on US-1 and Edgewood and you'd have a hell of a commuter station for a future Northwest Line.  Northwest? Yeah, THINK REGIONAL RAIL!
Callahan-Hillard-Folkston-Waycross.... alllllllll aboard!

If I get the JTA Transit Director Position, as soon as I'm settled in my hope is to pull in the rail interests within the Transit Agencies in Gainesville, Tallahassee and Valdosta, all of which are already VERY interested. If someone else gets it then I'm here to help, we CAN do this and what the hell, I'LL WRITE THE GRANTS!


WELCOME TO THE TROPICS

I have a question..  Why did these tunnels get filled in? ... Were they ever used?  Do you think they ever would be used ?

Friend Timkin, Don't worry, 75% to 90% of the tunnels are still extant. The old 1890's Union Station was built like most of the old Bay Street waterfront, just a couple of feet above the high tide mark. This worked fine until the double tropical storms of around 1898-1900 flooded the hell out of the place and did millions in damage. Hundreds of freight and passenger cars, entire trains, buildings, and locomotives were in water that rose to about a foot ABOVE the car floors. REALITY CHECK! YOU BET!

The City and the Railroads desperately needed to expand the station and by 1910 it was kicking the walls out. One thing about the new station was painfully apparent, IT HAD TO BE RAISED WELL ABOVE THE WATER. So the new plan called for a series of extremely heavily built concourses between every couple of tracks all tied to a grand passageway that led to where the "Primes" South Concourse Doors are today. In other words these were built at the same level as the 1890's station, and the floors are thus a couple of feet above the high tide mark.

The Railroads sunk 100's of pilings some of which went 75' into the ground, and then poured 250,000 cubic yards of fill over those concourses making them into instant "Tunnels".  Very clever indeed!  

When the "Prime" was built they simply filled all of the tunnels with construction and demolition debris. The north 100' or so was blocked off by a wall and that segment according to plan was then back-filled with trash. The wall effectively blocks off about 50% of the tunnels (north portion).

The real tragic dumb ass, lame brained, stupid mistake, was when the COJ got a wild hair idea to make Water Street a "Grand Vista" from the Landing all the way to the imposing entrance of the old station. BEAUTIFUL IDEA, but it involved removing the Lee Street Viaduct over the terminals through tracks and the FEC mainline and replacing it with the "new" Park Street Viaduct, which was greatly shortened and lowered from the former bridges level to "improve the impressive view". In order to accomplish the lowering and to maintain a minimum 24' clearance from the top of the rails to the bottom of the bridge, the city removed the fill along McCoy's Creek and put the FEC RY mainline right back to the 1890 level. The new viaduct clears only 2 tracks and a new station is going to need about 10-12 according to what I know is coming and from discussions with USDOT.

In case this isn't bad enough, apparently no one at the FEC, CSX, NS or the other various "terminal" titans, ever read the history of the property and the view was improved without a "obvious" reason to stop the project. Then along came the skyway, and no less then 4 elevated monorail tracks on two structures right across water street at broad, FOREVER BLOCKING THE VIEW that they worked so hard to create. Next along comes the new flood maps that must have sent the FEC directors to watching the weather and tracking the storms on their Winn-Dixie bags... EMBARGO the entire EAST COAST OF FLORIDA, has now become a real possibility with the first tropical storm, and guess where THOSE legal cases are going to end?

CURE? Yes, TEAR DOWN THE STUPID VIADUCT and rebuild it in the image of the LEE STREET VIADUCT, hell maybe with a steep grade, we could keep the "view", at least for anybody west of Broad, or riding the Skyway! The tunnels are one piece of this puzzle and when they finally decide to reopen them, rather then building a flyover concourse, then you'll know our horrid problems with knowing our own history will have been solved. Meanwhile those FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION inspectors walking around down there with the badges and clipboards? ... don't ask me, I don't know ANYTHING about it! Hee Hee!


OCKLAWAHA

[Timkin]

Pretty cool story Ock.  I remember sometime back there was a "sneak peek" into the tunnels and they looked pretty intact....   The mindless "planning" over the decades . The so-called improvements..  Tearing down everything in Brooklyn and LaVilla for us to look at a huge emptiness.

We have ingenious minds  in planning ...and have had for some time.  I hope I live to see a positive change .. and Frankly I do hope you get the JTA Transit Director position! We might just see these tunnels unearthed and used again .

[tufsu1]

source please.

I believe your unnamed sources were from DVI....mine will also remain unnamed but are from the City and DVI.

[tufsu1]

I am still trying to ascertain additional information...maybe you could also help out and call your sources.