Have you ever considered adding a couple more counties to the Metro Area

[KennyLovesJAX]

Adding  counties to our south, even Gainesville and become a CSA, and maybe a couple counties in GA, such as Camden, and others!!!!  

[Joe]

MSA's are determined by economic ties. Generally a commuting threshold of 25% must exist (although it can be lower under certain circumstances).

I don't think Jax will add a new county into the MSA any time soon. Camden, Georgia might be the closest. I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if Putnam and Flagler eventually become part of the MSA if the outer beltway gets built.

I cannot imagine Alachua County ever becoming part of a Jax-Gainesville CMSA. It is simply too far away, and there is no credible plan for direct freeway connection between us. The only way Jax will become a CMSA is if it combines with the Palm Coast MSA in flagler county - and as far as I know, the commuting patterns aren't even close enough to qualify for the foreseeable future.

[Joe]

By the way, for anyone unfamiliar with this topic, here is the quick summary:

MSA = Metropolitan Statistical Area
Urbanized areas of over 50,000 people.

CSA = Combined Statistical Area
Also called a CMSA - Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area. When two MSA's essentially grow together and are recognized as one Metro area. Hence Dallas-Fort Worth, Minneapolis-St Paul, San Jose - San Francisco - Oakland, etc. etc.

Since there aren't any MSAs (remember: 50,000+) near Jax, it is unlikely we will become a CSA. Palm Coast and Gainesville are by far the closest options. Probably, Jax will continue growing as a standard MSA.

Fortunately, in the real world, none of this really matters. It's just statistical definitions. The only advantage is that if we were a CSA with Gainesville or Palm Coast we would jump up the TV market and Metro area rankings. It would make us look bigger than we are. Also, because the distances are so great, it would probably be a terrible sign if we ever became a CSA with Palm Cost (nevermind Gainesville). That would mean our metro area would be almost as long as Miami's, and that Jax had fallen victim to extreme sprawl.

[tufsu1]

our current MSA includes Duval and portions of Clay, Nassau, and St. Johns...the 2010 Census will likely expand the 3 outlying counties and add a portion of Baker

[Captain Zissou]

Thanks for the info Joe.  I had not heard the term CSA (or CMSA) before.  While I do love Gainesville, I would hate for us to grow out that far.  If we could expand our biotech ties with UF and Shands, that would be more than enough for me.

[Jim]

our current MSA includes Duval and portions of Clay, Nassau, and St. Johns...the 2010 Census will likely expand the 3 outlying counties and add a portion of Baker

I believe the entire counties are accounted for with CSA's and MSA's.

[KennyLovesJAX]

well, i think its possible, jacksonville just has to dig in deeper with everyone to see if everyone is down with the idea, think we can make the arrignments for freeways etc......

[Jim]

Alachua county is simply too far to consider Duval county as a commercial hub for enough residents.

Camden county, GA and Putnam county are the most likely new additions to the MSA with Bradford county and Charlton county, GA the next most likely.  Though all 4 would be a decade or 3 away at the earliest.

[Mattius92]

Alachua is way to far. Now I would think in the future that Camden, Bradford, Flagler and Putnam will be added. Flagler will probably be the first one added, then Camden, Putnam, then Bradford. That is several hundred thousand added to our MSA.

So I am thinking by 2040 the Jacksonville MSA will contain over 2 million poeple. And the state alone will have over 22 million.

[Jim]

I've considered Flagler but I think it along with Volusia will become their own MSA soon.  I don't think Duval grabs enough Flagler residents to be added to our MSA.

By 2040, the Jax MSA will have closer to 2.5 million and the state will be pushing 30 million.

[Mattius92]

At that rate the entire state will turn into one massive CMSA. And we would beat New York as the largest metro area in the US!

[KennyLovesJAX]

oh yeah, if florida became a CMSA, we will be 20+ million people, beating NYC METRO

[simms3]

lame thread.  won't happen and would not be good if we did.  in fact, we should dispel Baker from our MSA as it only adds about 25,000 people who mostly work there and 600 sq. miles (so it dilutes our density ratings).  FL will not become a CMSA.  If we deserve to be one giant CMSA by 2040, then NY-Boston-Hartford-Providence-state of NJ-Phila-Baltimore-DC would already be one.  Those metros are just as close/even closer together and Baltimore and DC are considered two distinct metros.  Wishful thinking that does not even mean anything.  Hell, it is more likely that S FL will be a different state by 2040 than all of FL being one metro.

[reednavy]

Camden Co., GA is it's own Micropolitan S.A., the St. Mary's MSA. They're the most likely candidate of all.

Putnam County is it's own Micropolitan area, the Palatka MSA.

Flagler County, which is it's own Micropolitan area, is now part of the Deltona-Daytona Beach MSA, which is part of the overall Orlando-Deltona-Daytona Beach CSA.

Baker County is already part of the Jax MSA, and you don't add part of the county, the whole thing is considered when added. It doesn't matter how much they do or do not add, it is all about economic ties.

The only counties in the region not part of any metro or micro area are Union and Bradford, as well as Charlton, GA.

Television DMA's somewhat conform to MSAs and such, but not completely.