‘Bright flight’ changes the face of cities, suburbs

[thelakelander]

I wonder what the impact of this will be on a sprawling city like Jacksonville?

Younger, educated whites moving to urban areas for homes, jobs

WASHINGTON - White flight? In a reversal, America's suburbs are now more likely to be home to minorities, the poor and a rapidly growing older population as many younger, educated whites move to cities for jobs and shorter commutes.

An analysis of 2000-2008 census data by the Brookings Institution highlights the demographic "tipping points" seen in the past decade and the looming problems in the 100 largest metropolitan areas, which represent two-thirds of the U.S. population.

The findings could offer an important road map as political parties, including the tea party movement, seek to win support in suburban battlegrounds in the fall elections and beyond. In 2008, Barack Obama carried a substantial share of the suburbs, partly with the help of minorities and immigrants.

The analysis being released Sunday provides the freshest detail on the nation's growing race and age divide, which is now feeding tensions in Arizona over its new immigration law.

'Outdated and at odds'
Ten states, led by Arizona, surpass the nation in a "cultural generation gap" in which the senior populations are disproportionately white and children are mostly minority.

This gap is pronounced in suburbs of fast-growing areas in the Southwest, including those in Florida, California, Nevada, and Texas.

"A new metro map is emerging in the U.S. that challenges conventional thinking about where we live and work," said Alan Berube, research director with the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings, a nonpartisan think-tank based in Washington. "The old concepts of suburbia, Sun Belt and Rust Belt are outdated and at odds with effective governance."

Suburbs still tilt white. But, for the first time, a majority of all racial and ethnic groups in large metro areas live outside the city. Suburban Asians and Hispanics already had topped 50 percent in 2000, and blacks joined them by 2008, rising from 43 percent in those eight years.

The suburbs now have the largest poor population in the country. They are home to the vast majority of baby boomers age 55 to 64, a fast-growing group that will strain social services after the first wave of boomers turns 65 next year.

full article: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37041770/ns/us_news-census_2010

[CS Foltz]

stephen............I have to agree! That is something that I have noticed but not really thought about! It is a trend that should be acknowledged and planned for. Mobility Plan has this thought in mind, I believe! Now if the inner cores can be structured and the proper infrastructure set into place, places like downtown could be refreshed and reinvigorated with new perspectives and fresh viewpoints and idea's...........at least one can hope!

[Lunican]

In six years, I have been completely unsuccessful at convincing any of my friends that were actively looking for school and career opportunities to consider Jacksonville.

They could go anywhere they wanted and the places they chose were: Orlando, New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco.

The fact that Jacksonville does not offer any advanced degrees or research opportunities is definitely hurting it.

[thelakelander]

I wonder what the impact will be on mega developments like Nocatee, RiverTown and Oakleaf?  It seems like locally, we believe development trends will remain the same whenever the economy strengthens.  This is evident by the continued political push for projects like 9B and the Outer Beltway.  However, several strong nationwide trends (including those mentioned in this article) indicate future growth patterns will evolve to become a significantly different animal.  It seems like we be having a conversation about how these places can be better connected to the city, via mass transit instead of beltways.  The longer we fight change locally, the more we put ourselves at an economic disadvantage against the peer communities we compete against for future job growth and quality of life aspects. 

[urbanlibertarian]

IMO COJ needs to be more like Houston and State of FL more like Texas.  In other words, back off and allow change to happen instead of trying to control everything.

[Springfielder]

I totally agree with not stepping in to stop the change...it's more or less a natural course of things...it happens all of the time. Inner city dwellers suddenly moved to the burbs, now they're moving back. This isn't something for people to fear, nor is there a need to jump in and stop it....allow it to happen. Neighborhoods that had turned into ghettos, find rebirth as a direct result of this.

[thelakelander]

Look no further than Detroit, as an example of what can happen when a city does not change with the times.  When it was time to diversify local economic engines that city didn't and as a result, has been significantly impacted by the fall of the auto manufacturing industry.  

The best thing for Jacksonville to do is accept the trends and plan for them.  That means making it a real priority to invest/improve mass transit, parks, streetscapes and policies that encourage and enhance the quality of urban living.  Not 5-10 years down the line but now!  Doing so will place Jacksonville at a competitive advantage as trends continue to engulf American's cities.  Being slow to react or fighting trends will only send the creative class and the companies that employ them to other regions that offer the type of urban living Americans seek.

[tufsu1]

what is interesting to me is where the young folks who do move to Jax. choose to live...in addition to the beach, San Marco, and Riverside, many of them choose to live in the Tinseltown/Town Center/Midtown area.

[thelakelander]

Economics, my friend, economics. Until Jax offers the type of urban evironment people seek, you'll see that type of movement.  Its really a dollars and cents thing over urban vs burb issue. Unfortunately, many more avoid the city altogether.

[tufsu1]

I think there are also a whole bunch of people who grew up in the suburbs and are just more comfortable with that lifestyle...especially if they didn't go to college "in the city"...also see what happens when parents help pick apartments.

[buckethead]

IMO COJ needs to be more like Houston and State of FL more like Texas.  In other words, back off and allow change to happen instead of trying to control everything.

Houston is an ugly city with pocets of attractive neighborhoods. It is a sprawling mass of hideous concrete and strip malls.

Over in the neighborhood of the Bush family (Shown to me by a local...I forget what it was called... Avondale on roids) is lovely. Elsewhere... not so much. Even the galleria district is unappealing IMO.

My travels have been confined to the south and west of the city, but inside the loop.

I am torn, regarding zoning. I do like to default to the concept of liberty, so I must agree to remain true to my principles.

[thelakelander]

I think there are also a whole bunch of people who grew up in the suburbs and are just more comfortable with that lifestyle...especially if they didn't go to college "in the city"...also see what happens when parents help pick apartments.

That may play a roll into it but I don't think living in Urban Jacksonville is worth the cost, when considering all things.

There are a couple of levels on this topic that we will have to address.  The first part is the number of people who graduate and outright avoid even considering the city as a place to move to.  As long as we don't change the way we think and development this will grow to become a more significant issue as we begin to lose out economically to places that offer a quality of living lifestyle not present in the First Coast.

The second level is out of those that do relocate to Jacksonville, we really don't have an urban area that offers the convenience of what is offered in the Southside.  Unless you're fine being a pioneer (there's nothing wrong with this, but you're in limited supply), there's certain things people expect and desire if choosing an urban environment.  These things include reliable mass transit, walkability, pedestrian scale vibrancy, well maintained and interactive parks, good schools, and a range of diverse residential living options (both in terms of price and style) to name a few.  Seriously, you need a car to access your basic living needs in most of urban Jacksonville, which defeats the whole purpose of choosing an urban lifestyle, imo.    

Nevertheless, you'll pay residential prices comparable to urban environments (in other cities) that do offer these things.  Weirdly enough if you lived in Tinseltown, you have more diversity and entertainment at your disposal than living in DT Jax.  In either case, you'll need a car so walkability becomes less of a deciding issue.  So when all things are considered and your personal family budget is on the line, you can't blame people for moving to more economically vibrant and diverse areas that also happen to provide a wider range of living options for residents at different income levels.

[duvaldude08]

Im not sure what everyone is referring too, but I have a slew of young people who have relocated here from Miami, Atl, New york and other major cities. They are either here because of their job, to go to school, the military or just simply relocated because they love the city. Im a young guy and when I finish school next year I plan on staying. I eventually want to start my own business and I want to open up a spot downtown. Instead of running, we need to stay in the city and make it would it should be. So many people complain about the problems and dont want to be part of a solution. My saying is this, Its not what the city has to offer you, but what you have to offer the city. A city is what you make it.  Ive seen people move away from here time and time again, and they ALWAYS come back.

[thelakelander]

Im not sure what everyone is referring too

Everything runs in cycles.  The Bright flight trend is just the reverse of White flight.  Nationwide, people are starting to move back to cities in higher numbers.  Jax is probably about 10 years behind its peers so expect this trend to eventually take place locally.  The key for us will be to properly plan for it.