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#51
Downtown / Re: Rebuilding RISE Doro
Last post by CityLife - February 06, 2026, 01:49:32 PM
Fantastic point Ken. I do think there is a general lack of understanding market dynamics, deficiencies, and what it takes to create a truly sustainable downtown among many leaders in Jax. There seems to be a belief that you simply build residential anywhere and people will come.

Union Terminal Warehouse is a good example. Of the 228 total units, 132 are currently available, despite the project having been open for almost a year. The property is offering two months free rent plus a $1,000 incentive. And since some of the occupied units are affordable/workforce housing, the vacancy rate for market-rate units is likely even higher than 58%.
https://www.utwjax.com/apartments/fl/jacksonville/floor-plans#k=47714

By contrast, Vista Brooklyn has only 20 available units out of 308 and does not appear to be offering major leasing incentives. 220 Riverside has 18 available units out of 282, though it is offering some incentives. Clearly, there is market demand in Brooklyn, likely because these projects are within walking distance of multiple employers and are located in a far more walkable, active, amenity rich area.

Jax may simply be adding more housing than the downtown market can realistically absorb right now, especially without enough employers to support it and especially when some of it isn't within walking distance of jobs. You can keep delivering new units, but if there aren't more jobs and people downtown every day, demand only goes so far. Gateway Jax has an unreal land assemblage, great vision, and is executing the vision already, but I still believe the project only truly succeeds is if UF does follow through and brings the fully promised campus online. I just don't know where else the residents come from.

In summary, I think Jax's full effort should be focused on bringing more employment downtown and making sure the UF project is fully realized.

#52
Downtown / Re: Rebuilding RISE Doro
Last post by acme54321 - February 06, 2026, 01:37:59 PM
The best part about that report is arguably the most catalytic project for the city, Gateway Jax, isn't even on their radar yet.  Save for the four season (which isnt going to really do anything for the city as a whole) it's all still a pipe dream. 
#53
Downtown / Re: Rebuilding RISE Doro
Last post by Ken_FSU - February 06, 2026, 10:17:53 AM
^I hope a lesson that we take away from both Rise Doro's struggles to lease, and Intuition's Departure, is that it does us more harm than good to mislead and burn earnest investors with nonsense like the DVI reports, leaving them holding the bag when the emperor turns out to not be wearing any clothes.

Look at the DVI's reports from the time that RISE purchased the Doro land, you can't blame for them thinking that the area was set to explode. As a city, we're out there positioning projects like Lot J, the Shipyards, and the Landing redevelopment as done-deal "pipeline" projects, when there wasn't even a redevelopment agreement in place for any of the land. It's bad business.







#54
Downtown / Re: Council Meeting Set for Mo...
Last post by Ken_FSU - February 06, 2026, 09:43:34 AM
As a marketing & advertising guy who has worked on hundreds of large campaigns for many, many years, the single most important thing that must be done - in advance - is to 1) align with key stakeholders on what success looks like, 2) determine which KPIs provide the best measurement toward that ultimate goal, and 3) use those inputs to map out your plan.

To me, the crux of this whole discussion and disagreement, again, comes down to our 1) lack of alignment on what success looks like, 2) lack of sound, transparent KPIs to accurately gauge health, and 3) lack of master planning & sequential prioritization.

No one seems to have a vision for the end in mind. The only KPI we ever hear discussed is a completely random 10,000 resident goal (less than 1% of our population, btw; vs. 3-5% in most healthy metros). No one seems to really be talking about or trending key health metrics like rent growth, commercial vacancy/occupancy rates, hotel REVpar, small-business survival rate, residential occupancy rates, daily foot traffic & dwell time, net promoter scores for key office tenants & development partners, etc. Which all leads to a bunch of Council members guessing about the health of downtown and the need (or lack of need) for incentives based on their own arbitrary hunches or based on the annual DVI gaslighting manifesto.

Fully agree with Tarbert that there's almost no universe where we need to be providing incentives in Brooklyn moving forward. A stronger case could be made for continued Southbank incentives if we had limitless budget, but we do not, and Northbank needs to be the priority. Strongly disagree with assertions from Ron Salem and the like that the Four Seasons and Gateway projects put us "over the hump" in terms of creating the type of momentum that makes the CBD attractive for investment (and capital) absent incentives. 160 high-end hotel rooms and 20 condos for the Khan family to sleep in for 40 nights a year do need equal a finish line.

My hope - given the reality that Jacksonville does have a limited general fund and that the CIP and other commitments are looking quite full in coming years - is that we at least walk away from this exercise with a list of priority projects to funnel completion grants at. Things like the Laura Street Trio, Gateway Jax's N7/Publix development, Jones Bros Furniture, infill housing in the CBD, some times of Sports & Entertainment complex, etc. On the flip side, although they are all very valid projects, there's no universe where we can be throwing large competition grants at residential development on the Southbank. Still not sure that taxpayers should be writing Related a $40 million check to develop luxury housing next door to Friendship Park, without an affordable/workforce housing component, but hopefully it comes with the asterisk that any additional development they potentially do on the MOSH site includes no such grant.

My first read of the article was, "This is terrible, they're going to slam on the breaks again." My hope, on second read, is that it leads to some much needed conversations about being more strategic with where we're focusing grants that come from the general fund.
#55
Downtown / Council Meeting Set for Monday...
Last post by Ken_FSU - February 06, 2026, 09:39:43 AM
Full story at Jax Daily Record: https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2026/feb/06/council-staging-for-debate-on-whether-to-ease-off-on-downtown-incentives/

QuoteCouncil staging for debate on whether to ease off on Downtown incentives

Jacksonville City Council member Jimmy Peluso says he'll know Downtown revitalization has come to pass when he sees two sights.

"I think we'll have found true and honest success when it's 6 o'clock on a Tuesday night and the streets are packed with people," he said. "I think we've found success when it's Saturday at 1 in the afternoon, and there are no events going on at any of our venues, but people are out and about and businesses are succeeding.

"That's when I know that we've hit the capacity that we need."

Peluso, whose District 7 includes the Downtown Northbank, is one side of an emerging conversation at City Hall about whether to reduce or even discontinue financial incentives to attract redevelopment in the heart of Jacksonville.

Peluso said he believes turning off the tap now will squelch momentum that has built up in recent years as projects have either launched or been completed. He said he will defend the incentive programs until he's confident Downtown redevelopment can sustain itself.

On the other side, some of his Council colleagues say the yearslong effort has gained solid traction and can advance on its own, with less or no reliance on taxpayer-provided incentives.

On Feb. 9, the Council Special Committee on the Future of Downtown is expected to debate the issue after some committee members raised the idea of reining in incentives during a Jan. 12 meeting.

Committee member Ron Salem said he believed the city's incentive programs had done what they were designed to do and the city should begin weaning itself off of them.

"If you go back, the purpose of these incentives was to kick-start the process," he said. "I think clearly we have done that."

Salem and some other Council members say that with developments such as Shad Khan's more than $387 million Four Seasons-anchored Shipyards project and Gateway Jax's $750 million Pearl Square mixed-use district well underway, and with work completed on other improvements such as city riverfront parks, the city can ease off of public assistance without hindering Downtown's momentum.

They say continuing to offer incentives, particularly completion grants that draw directly from the city's operating funds, could overtax the city budget while placing a disproportionate amount of money into one part of the city.

Peluso and other city decision-makers disagree, saying Downtown's economy has yet to improve to the point where projects are financially feasible for developers without city assistance.

Joe Carlucci, chair of the special committee, called for a discussion with the Downtown Investment Authority at the Feb. 9 meeting to review upcoming incentive requests from developers and examine whether to take a new approach.

Going into that meeting, here is a look at both sides of the issue.

The case for maintaining incentives

DIA CEO Colin Tarbert said that although Downtown is showing signs of a turnaround, it's still an "unproven" market for investors. Rents for residential and commercial space haven't reached a level where developers can find lenders willing to provide capital for projects without some city assistance.

"The private sector is not going to invest and take a certain amount of risk for a low return, right?" he said. "But once we start to get product online, and we start to build the rent base, then we'll be able to reduce the amount of completion grants, because lenders will see the rents and all those things. It just takes time, and it's an evolution. I saw the same thing in the prior city I worked in, where, over time, you build that strength."

Tarbert came to Jacksonville after serving as president and CEO of the Baltimore Development Corporation, which served a role similar to that of the DIA.

Bryan Moll, CEO of Gateway Jax, said in a recent email that "public-private partnerships are essential for moving projects forward right now."

"They protect the investment of both taxpayers and the city, ensuring a clear return on investment and allowing more projects to proceed and strengthen Jacksonville's urban core," he said.

Tarbert said that in areas of Downtown where significant redevelopment has occurred, particularly Brooklyn and the Southbank, a scale-back of incentives could soon be appropriate.

He said that in others, particularly the historic core that the DIA brands as City Center, incentives remain necessary to offset low rents and high costs of adapting historic buildings for modern uses.

Tarbert said the upcoming discussion on incentives would give the DIA and Council a chance to strategically plan for projects expected to come forward in coming years, prioritize them and budget for them.

"I think the Council and I share a similar perspective in a couple of ways, one being the kind of predictability that I think everybody wants in terms of what's coming down the pike," he said.

Peluso said pulling back on incentives now would be "a typical old-school Jacksonville mentality."

"We'll start doing something and showing the private sector that we're moving forward, then pull back the moment we want to, not the moment where it makes the most sense," he said. "I'm very concerned that we would start undoing the exceptional work we've been doing to get the products we want in our Downtown."

Peluso said Downtown revitalization was about more than restoring buildings. It involves strengthening the city's ability to compete with other Southeastern metros for employers, highly skilled workers and visitors. He said cities that have made progress in revitalizing their downtowns – Charlotte, North Carolina; Nashville, Tennessee; Austin, Texas – have seen an influx of residents eager to live in a dense, walkable, urban environment close to where they work.

Peluso said the same thing has started to happen in Jacksonville, where the Downtown population has grown as new residential units have come online.

"The investment and money that we put into our Downtown is well worth it," he said. "We've already seen it in other cities, and I think we've seen it a bit already here. People want to be here. I think it's evident.

"So to pull back when we are so much closer than we were in years past is, to me, just truly baffling and the antithesis of what many of us ran for and what many of us who are Downtown advocates believe in."

A snapshot of redevelopment

Recent spot checks of Downtown showed that it's not nearly as busy as Peluso hopes it will become.

Foot and motor traffic is sparse on weekend afternoons, although the recent opening of the first phase of the Riverfront Plaza park has drawn in some families.

At 6 p.m. on Jan. 27, a Tuesday, there was little activity in the historic core other than an ICE protest at the Bryan Simpson U.S. Courthouse. At Forsyth and Laura streets, a reporter counted fewer than 12 people on the sidewalks looking every direction.

But individuals on both sides of the debate say Downtown has gathered steam in the past two to three years, thanks to such projects as Khan's Four Seasons Hotel and Private Residences, Gateway Jax, and city parks and other infrastructure improvements at Riverfront Plaza, St. Johns River Park and RiversEdge on the Southbank.

Gateway Jax has broken ground on five blocks of its Pearl Square development, while construction of the Four Seasons and the adjacent One Tower Court office building progresses.

Plans for the University of Florida's graduate campus in LaVilla are advancing, as is construction on the "Stadium of the Future" remake of EverBank Stadium.

Several other projects are moving ahead, including Miami-based Related Group's proposed 25-story residential tower on the Southbank.

Peluso said the involvement of proven developers like Gateway Jax and Related shows that Downtown is on an upswing. Moll, who is partnering with JWB Real Estate Capital and DLP Capital on Gateway Jax, developed such projects as Water Street in Tampa before coming to Jacksonville. Related Group has developed more than 65,000 units of real estate valued at over $20 billion, according to its website.

If Jacksonville begins attracting other high-achieving developers, he said, it will be another sign that the city can start to ease off of incentives.

"We need a private sector to be quick to say, "No, we don't need incentives. We're just excited to build here because of the return on investment that we're seeing,'" Peluso said. "I think we're getting closer to that. But to push the brakes now, it's just such an awful sign to the folks who have invested so much time and energy and money into some of the projects we already have."

On Jan. 28, a Downtown business operator who said he had been waiting 10 years for momentum to catch hold called it quits.

Ben Davis, owner of Intuition Ale Works in the Sports and Entertainment District, posted on social media that he was closing the brewer, restaurant and music hall on April 24 when its lease expires.

Davis said he had been trying to find someone to purchase the business but "the right buyer never came."

Among the reasons for his decision, he cited the lack of progress in Downtown revitalization.

"I don't regret the move," he said in the posts. "It was ambitious, and it was my call. But that ambition was rooted in the hope that transformative downtown development would follow. It never did. Renderings and potential do not pay the bills. Ultimately, the financial burden placed on Intuition made long-term sustainability impossible."

The case for dialing back on incentives

To understand the argument for reducing or eliminating incentives, it's important to know that incentives essentially come in three forms. They are:

• Recapture Enhanced Value Grants, or tax rebates. These incentives are based on increases in tax revenue that a property will generate once it is redeveloped. REV Grants provide developers with a rebate of a percentage of that added revenue over a certain number of years.

• Low- or no-interest loans.

• Completion grants, which are cash incentives provided after projects are constructed. Unlike REV Grants, which involve the city forgoing tax revenue, completion grants require a payout from the city. These payouts come from the city's general fund, which is similar to a household budget.

For years, Council took an a la carte approach to incentive requests, committing to projects with little consideration about how they would affect the city budget when they came due.

That began to change in 2022, when Salem introduced legislation requiring the DIA to provide an updated list of project commitments to Council when seeking incentives. Council approved Salem's Ordinance 2022-0218, which according to a legislative summary attached to the bill, was to allow Council to "better gauge current and future encumbrances to the General Fund for DIA projects."

In 2024, that list drew increased scrutiny from Council as payouts for completion grants for large-scale projects began appearing on the near horizon.

By early 2025, Council member Will Lahnen was warning that the city's $75 million worth of commitments for completion grants amounted to an "incentive cliff" that threatened to exacerbate projected budget deficits. Those commitments include $25.8 million for the Four Seasons and its adjacent office building, One Tower Court, and $39 million for the Miami-based Related Group's proposed 25-story Southbank residential tower.

Lahnen and Council Vice President Nick Howland led a charge for the DIA and the city Office of Economic Development, which administers incentive programs for development outside of Downtown, to use more REV Grants and reduce or eliminate the others.

Those pushing against cash grants say the city can't afford to keep offering them while facing high-ticket needs such as replacing the city jail and fulfilling raises granted in 2024 to police officers, firefighters and corrections officers. Council also reduced future incoming revenue by providing a one-eighth of a mill reduction in the city's millage rate in the fall of 2025, which is projected to reduce tax revenues by $70 million over five years.

Then there are other high-priority projects that either have drawn requests for completion grants or are likely to do so.

They include Gateway Jax's proposed mixed-use tower at Riverfront Plaza, which Moll has said will need a $20 million completion grant, and potential redevelopment of the Laura Street Trio of historic buildings at Forsyth and Laura streets.

Amid those pressures, Lahnen said, it's imperative for the city to rein in Downtown cash incentives.

Noting a goal by Tarbert to boost Downtown's resident population to 20,000, more than twice its current level, he questions the logic of the city investing hundreds of millions of dollars in a neighborhood that would comprise 2% of the city's 1 million-resident population.

Lahnen serves Council District 3, an affluent district that includes the St. Johns Town Center.

To illustrate his concern that the city is overinvesting in Downtown, he uses an example of a $28.25 million completion grant for Gateway Jax's Publix-anchored mixed-use tower proposed on the site of the former First Baptist Church main auditorium.

Lahnen said District 3 is within close proximity to four Publix stores that were built without a penny of public funding. He said the proposed completion grant for the Downtown Publix is 10 times more than the money being spent on the only two projects being undertaken this year in District 3 under the city's capital improvement plan.

And both of those projects were funded with leftover money from other projects that were completed under budget, he said.

He noted that a proposed hotel at Baptist Health's campus on the Southbank, for which the health care provider is seeking an $8 million completion grant, is similar to the Hilton Jacksonville at Mayo Clinic, which was completed in 2025 with no city incentives.

Lahnen said he would like to cut off completion grants at least until he sees a long-term list of potential projects.

"I know some deals happen fast, but I'm at an all-stop until I have a better idea of what do the next couple of years look like," he said. "I need a solid view about everything that could be coming our way.

"We are fooling ourselves mathematically if we think we can do all the things being talked about right now with cash completion grants."

Seeking a cutoff date

Salem contends that the DIA's incentive programs were designed to put Downtown on a solid path to redevelopment, not to see it all the way to the end.

As described in DIA and city documents, the redevelopment strategy can be described as a wheel effect in which incentives attract private development, which in turn draws in new residents, restaurants, entertainment venues, visitors and more. The influx generates an infusion of money, which encourages more investment and development. As the quality of life improves and property values rise, incentives are no longer needed because redevelopment projects are financially viable without them.

If carried out as designed, Jacksonville receives a revitalized Downtown and taxpayers recoup their investment as tax revenue increases from the redeveloped property.

Neither the DIA's bylaws nor the legislation contains a prescribed date or metric at which incentives must be dialed back. A 2023 booklet outlining the DIA's master plan, which was last updated in 2022, contains no sunset date.

Salem, a second-term Council member whose last official act as president in 2023 was to establish the special committee on Downtown, said it's time to set a cutoff date.

"I don't know that you need to be on the downhill (of redevelopment) when you start pulling back," he said. "If it's a hump, I think we're clearly on the upswing or close to the top."

Entering the discussion on incentives, Salem said he will advocate for the city to prioritize projects and replace completion grants with loans for those developments.

"I'm flexible on the date and what particular projects we need to focus on, but I think we need to be looking at some point in the not-too-distant future that we get out of this business (of providing incentives)," he said.

In scheduling the discussion to start at the special committee meeting on Feb. 9, Carlucci requested a full list of projects in the pipeline, including what he described as potential redevelopments that have yet to be formally submitted.

"We have to have it by then, because we're looking at more and more (projects," he told Tarbert. "You've got 16 or 18 or however many. We've really got to start making these decisions based upon priority, funding years, so on and so forth."

The Special Committee on the Future of Downtown meeting is scheduled in the Council chambers at City Hall. The start time was not available at publication.
#56
Downtown / Re: Rebuilding RISE Doro
Last post by CityLife - February 06, 2026, 09:37:29 AM
Rise Doro is supposed to have its first residents moving in today. They did a tremendous job with the interiors and amenities (see photos below). This is a dream housing scenario for a lot of young professionals, especially ones new to Jax that are trying to meet friends and have an active social life. 

It's still early, but their pre-leasing does not look promising. I posted this in another thread last week, but it appears as if Rise has only leased 2 of the 98 units available for move in on February 6th and 4 of the 127 units available on May 1st. They are offering 2 free months rent and a $1k credit. It does not look like any additional units have been leased since my post last week too. Here is their map of available units: https://risedoro.com/siteplan/

Intuition closing and the stadium/Daily's closure will no doubt hamper their leasing efforts, but I also wonder how much Downtown's office vacancy issues impact things. Probably sound like a broken record, but imo Downtown cannot simply build housing and draw residents without a strong office market. Especially with rents like this. I think there has been some school of thought in Jax leadership that remote workers and digital nomads would move to Downtown Jax in large numbers, but frankly Downtown does not have the food scene, nightlife, cultural offerings, etc to compete with the dozen or so other places in Florida and the Sunbelt that are more appealing to this demographic.

I hope the new DIA director reconsiders Downtown's recent strategy of prioritizing housing development while largely sidelining the office market.

Full gallery here: https://risedoro.com/gallery/





#57
Science and Technology / Re: Wordle?
Last post by Charles Hunter - February 06, 2026, 09:16:00 AM
Wordle 1,692 - 4/6
Wordle 1,693 - 5/6

Connections 970 - no errors, Purple 3rd
Connections 971 - 1 error (P&B), Purple 3rd, Blue leftovers (but "duh!" when I saw it)

Strands - no hints either day, Spangram #5 today

Pips
Easy yesterday - 0:46
Easy today - 0:45
Consistency!

Medium yesterday 10:21
Medium today 3:58
#58
Downtown / Re: Lot J - 5 Years Later
Last post by acme54321 - February 06, 2026, 08:21:51 AM
It depends who you are.  Zalupski and DeSantis are bros.
#59
Downtown / Re: Lot J - 5 Years Later
Last post by thelakelander - February 06, 2026, 07:28:33 AM
^Different markets indeed but I did notice the state is giving away free land. Thats a hell of a deal, considering the location of this property. I was previously under the impression that the state did not get involved in stadium deals.
#60
Downtown / Re: Lot J - 5 Years Later
Last post by jaxlongtimer - February 05, 2026, 11:40:01 PM
Quote from: Ken_FSU on February 05, 2026, 03:36:00 PM
The Rays and Tampa (with an assist from the Governor) just announced that they will soon enter negotiations for a new $2.3 Billion Rays ballpark + mixed-use sports & entertainment district, challenging the notion that stadium + mixed-use district can't be negotiated concurrently. With the qualifier that the numbers are always a little fluffy, estimated economic impact is 10 million visitors annually, $34 billion in overall impact from transforming the space into a premier event destination.

https://www.fox13news.com/news/tampa-bay-rays-renderings-proposed-stadium-hillsborough-college

Almost two years after reaching terms on our new stadium, we've got no supporting infrastructure in the plans to catalyze the largest investment in city history.

We need to get on this yesterday. Now's the time to start having these conversations. When the stadium will already be closing. When Intuition has packed up shop. Before the Four Seasons opens. Before Met Park & Shipyards West are done. Before MOSH rebuilds. While Daily's Place is closed for two years. Broken record, but we're so far behind on the key piece necessary to turn this area into an economic engine for the city. What events are we going to attract to the new stadium and sports district, and what festivals are we going to attract to a rebuilt Met Park when quite literally there are almost zero amenities nearby.

I looked at Google Maps to see exactly where this development was planned for.  This is apples and oranges with our stadium set up.

First, this is directly across the street from Raymond James Stadium and on the same large block as the Steinbrenner Stadium complex for the NY Yankees.  So serving 3 major league facilities, not one.  It is also on a community college campus with 45,000 students per the article which will likely provide a base level of attendance and youthful energy.  It is less than 1.5 miles from both a I-275 exit and Tampa International Airport putting it much closer to the travel paths of millions of vehicles.  By car, it appears to be a good 5 miles from Downtown Tampa so it won't be close enough to overlap with its downtown offerings or to detract from them.  Within 2 or 3 miles, there appear to be thousands of houses. Lastly, Tampa has way more tourists visiting than Jacksonville that are looking for fun things to do .

Like before, Jax isn't Tampa.  It isn't Atlanta.  It isn't Orlando or Miami or Charlotte.  We don't have their populations, tourists, robust and large enough true downtown, etc. to pull this off at this time.  If Khan moved forward with a new "Lot J" you can bet he would hedge his bets greatly with a huge incentive from the taxpayers given the risks of success and it will be deja vu with the first round.