Metro Jacksonville

Jacksonville by Neighborhood => Downtown => Topic started by: cityimrov on July 04, 2010, 07:13:03 PM

Title: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: cityimrov on July 04, 2010, 07:13:03 PM
I want to love downtown, I really do.  However, I just don't know anymore.  Visiting Downtown is, quite frankly, a major hassle.  

I'll give an alternative - Riverside (5 Pts).  Riverside is a pleasant community where I can walk around and enjoy life.  The people are nice, the restaurants are close, and you just feel welcomed there.  I enjoy spending the evening and winding down there when I have the chance.

Downtown.  If I can sum it up in one word - stress.  I just don't want to deal with it.  Without even talking about parking and wondering if my car will get a ticket or towed, the stress of visiting downtown is very high.  In some ways visiting downtown is a mix of visiting a police state & a fake place trying to make a world by forcing people to act the way they do.  After 9 PM, things just turn downhill from there.  Except for the Art Walk (which is one of the nice rare events there),  Downtown just wants to kick everyone out.  All the buildings lock their doors and...it's just a hassle.  Once of the greatest dreams I want to see is more "sky" restaurants on the top floor of buildings to enjoy the view.  The big problem - security.  It's like there's something so precious in downtown that people want to protect it with all their might.

It's hard to explain but downtown is definitely not Riverside and I just really don't like visiting it even though I really want to.  I don't think Downtown can survive like this no matter how much money is thrown at it unless a major attitude change occurs.  
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Jaxson on July 04, 2010, 08:15:49 PM
I agree with cityimrov about our failure to turn downtown into a destination for residents and visitors.  I especially agree with cityimrov about our failure to capitalize on what are some really great views from various downtown skyscrapers.  It would be beneficial for us to open an observation deck or rooftop restaurant that would afford people a memorable view. 
What strikes me as sad about downtown is that it could not even support a Starbucks (The one that was in the Lynch Building).  Starbucks is everywhere, for Pete's sake!  This does not bode well for those of us who wish to see downtown overcome its troubles.
In the meantime, it will continue to be a dark and dirty place that sees visitors from time to time but continues to be lost among a zillion suburbs in search of a city...
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 04, 2010, 11:23:20 PM
well there was probably 50,000+ people downtown tonight...and everything seemed to go pretty well
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: stjr on July 05, 2010, 01:01:39 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 04, 2010, 11:23:20 PM
well there was probably 50,000+ people downtown tonight...and everything seemed to go pretty well

How many of them live downtown?  shop downtown? work downtown?  visit (actually walk and participate in) downtown more than three times a year?

Like the Jazz Festival, the July 4th fireworks show us a glimmer of what downtown could be.  But, until downtown remains a princess and doesn't revert back to plain ol' Cinderella at midnight, it won't move forward.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: cityimrov on July 05, 2010, 02:21:17 AM
The 4th of July and other events in downtown is what I call a "fake" downtown.  Everything there gets setup up just before and torn down just after the event.  Yes, Cinderella.  Not only that, the police (not blaming them since they are just following orders from somewhere) & the media sets it up so that it pushes people towards the river and far away from what is the real downtown.  Downtown should be a place where people can enjoy the place, having fun, and slowly walking towards the event.  Hey, even if they miss the event, they at least had fun along the way.  

The downtown that people saw yesterday is a fake, imaginary, made up, and unsustainable place.  It makes people think that downtown is ok when it's isn't.  I'm not even sure how much business, those real permanent business in downtown actually get during events like the 4th.

Downtown during a non-event night.  A nice romantic evening stroll - that doesn't exist except (maybe?) for a very short stroll across The Landing's Riverwalk.  
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Joe on July 05, 2010, 07:48:42 AM
Downtown certainly has problems. However, I think there's an issue of properly managing expectations regarding Cityimprov's complaints

Jax's "downtown" is still just an office core CBD. Even in some of the most vibrant American and European CBDs, the sidewalks roll up at 5pm and the retail is oriented toward daytime office workers.

Unfortunately, so much of the urban core was raped by urban renewal, we have about 10 square blocks of downtown that isn't parking lots. I think that we - as urban advocates - sometimes have too high of an expectation of what we can do with this one small area of a larger urban core. We want it to be all things to all people: office core, special event center, neighborhood retail destination, regional retail destination, restaurant hub, yuppie neighborhood, nightlife district.

Don't get me wrong - I think certain specific districts within downtown like Bay street and Laura street have this potential. I just hope people realize that a good chunk of the existing CBD will always have a somewhat dead-after-5pm feel. That's just how large office cores are. They are office cores, not entertainment districts.

I also think that with proper mass transit (like the exciting streetcar proposal that has recently been discussed) places like 5 points, san marco, and a revitalized stadium district and main street will become a more integrated part a unified urban core. So while people might find the CBD a bit "stressful" there will still be seamless access to 5 points or main street or bay street - and those will be the pleasant entertainment and retail districts of a unified urban core.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: thelakelander on July 05, 2010, 08:02:12 AM
QuoteI also think that with proper mass transit (like the exciting streetcar proposal that has recently been discussed) places like 5 points, san marco, and a revitalized stadium district and main street will become a more integrated part a unified urban core. So while people might find the CBD a bit "stressful" there will still be seamless access to 5 points or main street or bay street - and those will be the pleasant entertainment and retail districts of a unified urban core.

This is a very important point that should not be overlooked.  We continue to do DT a disservice by isolating a small part of the Northbank from the rest of the urban core.  The ultimate success of the Northbank will rest on the city's ability to package and sell it together with the rest of the urban core (Riverside, Springfield, San Marco, Durkeeville, etc.).  Over time, infill growth (assuming the city makes it a priority) will make the connections between our existing urban core destinations seamless but we'll never move forward in that direction by isolating a few blocks and trying to revitalize them without understanding or accepting how the urban core works from a holistic angle. 
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Jaxson on July 05, 2010, 10:26:56 AM
@stjr and cityimrov --- I totally agree with you both that, when the smoke clears, downtown Jacksonville turns back into a pumpkin.  I am usually impressed by how many people will cram into downtown (even parking their cars on the Fuller Warren Bridge), how many people will spend roughly 20 minutes watching the fireworks, and then how many people will immediately hurry back to their homes in the 'burbs.  While we deserve cool points for our skill at evacuating downtown, we lose just as many cool points for not having the kind of a gathering point where people will spend more than just 15 minutes to watch a fireworks show.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: heights unknown on July 05, 2010, 10:38:27 AM
Yes it can survive; if we get the right leadership/leaders and those in power who have the balls, vision, fortitude, and aggressiveness to not be afraid to move downtown, along with the City of Jacksonville forward so that we are on par or even exceed other cities after those achievements come to fruition.  If we hang on to the "good ole boys" way of thinking, and elect leaders who are fearful or nervous of growth, prosperity, and added success for our City, we will never, ever move forward regardless of our feeble masked plans that do nothing but make us a business city at day, and dead as a cemetary at night.

"HU"
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 05, 2010, 11:29:31 AM
Quote from: stjr on July 05, 2010, 01:01:39 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 04, 2010, 11:23:20 PM
well there was probably 50,000+ people downtown tonight...and everything seemed to go pretty well

How many of them live downtown?  shop downtown? work downtown?  visit (actually walk and participate in) downtown more than three times a year?

I don't know for sure....but there are about 50,000 workers in the downtown area...the Landing sees 5 million visitors a year....ArtWalk gets 5,000+ people every month....then add the T-U, the Florida Theatre, the Library, the sports complex, and other events (like Jazz Fest)...I bet the number gets real high.

Last night the Landing was packed by 6pm and wait times to get into some of the restaurants were over an hour....as a downtown resident, I'm happy we have these special events but would not like to see those crowds every day.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: mtraininjax on July 05, 2010, 11:57:42 AM
TUFSU - The problem with downtown is that there are only about 2500 downtown taxpaying residents. You cannot operate downtown 24 x 7 on such a small number. With real estate development down, its hard to see downtown growing much with new residents without new businesses moving back downtown and offering its workers incentives to live downtown.

Fl/ga, super bowl, 4th of july are all great events, but you cannot build downtown on single events, like after 5, you need to see who is left downtown today on the 5th after everyone has left to go to the suburbs.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Jaxson on July 05, 2010, 12:39:55 PM
@mtraininjax --- you are right.  special events come and go, but they cannot sustain a healthy downtown jacksonville.  we like to point to those events as 'proof' that downtown is on the move, but fail to address the ongoing perception problems that keep people away from downtown during the rest of the year. 
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: comncense on July 05, 2010, 01:34:21 PM
Good point Jaxson. I think the misconception that Downtown is dangerous after dark keeps alot of people from coming downtown. I've lived Downtown for 3 years and have roamed freely between Adams and Water Street and never had any problems. Yes, more could be done to help solve that perception, but that's not going to change for a while. I think that's something that needs to be solved first. Because with that notion, people won't want to live downtown due to the thoughts of safety concerns. I'd be interested to see the crime rate of the actual downtown area vs. other areas of the city.  I know the media does a good job of lumping Northside/NW  crime with the downtown area.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 05, 2010, 04:10:18 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 05, 2010, 11:29:31 AM
Quote from: stjr on July 05, 2010, 01:01:39 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 04, 2010, 11:23:20 PM
well there was probably 50,000+ people downtown tonight...and everything seemed to go pretty well

How many of them live downtown?  shop downtown? work downtown?  visit (actually walk and participate in) downtown more than three times a year?

I don't know for sure....but there are about 50,000 workers in the downtown area...the Landing sees 5 million visitors a year....ArtWalk gets 5,000+ people every month....then add the T-U, the Florida Theatre, the Library, the sports complex, and other events (like Jazz Fest)...I bet the number gets real high.

Last night the Landing was packed by 6pm and wait times to get into some of the restaurants were over an hour....as a downtown resident, I'm happy we have these special events but would not like to see those crowds every day.

That's only one day a year though. At 9pm on any normal night, it's dead as a doornail.

This is what the OP was saying about a "fake" impression of DT, when people go off pointing out how nice it is during one-time special events, it gives a false impression of how badly DT sucks the other 99.9999999% of the time.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 05, 2010, 04:46:59 PM
Quote from: comncense on July 05, 2010, 01:34:21 PM
Good point Jaxson. I think the misconception that Downtown is dangerous after dark keeps alot of people from coming downtown.

I think many people get frustrated with going downtown because of the asinine parking enforcement situation. Despite there being nothing but empty buildings, bulldozed vacant lots, and closed storefronts everywhere, not to mention a total lack of non-homeless people stretching as far as the eye can see, if you go 5 seconds overtime on a meter then that douchebag with the 70's 'fro and the crappy attitude will be hovering over your car with a ticket ready, as though anyone else really wanted that parking space anyway.

COJ apparently got confused in Econ 101 when it came time to learn how to read a supply/demand curve, since there's no demand for anything down there, but that doesn't stop them from over-supplying parking tickets and meters. LOL, you know how Vermont is the state famous for having more cows than people? Reminds me of Jacksonville's DT, which is going to become famous for having more parking meters than people.

I got sick enough of $25 sandwiches that I quit going down there. And by that I mean a $15 Parking ticket + $10 for a sandwich & soda. It got way too annoying to keep screwing with it. No skin off my teeth, the eats are better over here in R'side anyhow. And, interestingly, despite there being no parking meters to be found anywhere over here, there are 10 times more people out and about than there are in DT at any given time of the day. Hmm...what does that teach us?

Give it time, though. I'm sure tufsu is busily preparing a study for COJ showing that the lack of draconian parking policies over here in R'side is causing total chaos! Something clearly must be done about this terrible problem, it's truly horrifying having all these people everywhere and all these businesses open. Someone save us quick, so we can have that wonderful 40% vacancy rate like downtown...which is about to get even worse when Life of the South leaves because of (you guessed it) the asinine parking situation.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Jaxson on July 05, 2010, 05:00:20 PM
@Chriswufgator -- Wouldn't it be great if city leaders would wake up and get rid of the parking meters?  We all could do without the sadists who go around ticketing the very few remaining people who do support downtown.  We also could save the money that we spend on those sadists in uniform.  Furthermore, it would lighten the burden of checking to see if we have quarters before we venture downtown.  One would have thought that the meters at least could have been allowed to accept nickels, dimes and quarters.  At any rate, I totally support getting rid of the parking meters!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: cityimrov on July 05, 2010, 05:11:45 PM
Even without looking at the parking issue, DT has major problems.  I'll give an example.  Suppose we somehow manage to find the space to fit Jax Stadium in the middle of downtown.  Yes, in the middle in the core.  That's about 56,000 people per Jaguar game?  A boost to downtown economy, right?  

Here's probably what's going to happen after the game.  So instead of picking the option that takes people into shops and entrainment (like, let's say, Disney World) forcing people to slow down and enjoy themselves, the police will be figuring out to corral people to their cars.  Barricades will be set up from the stadium to the parking lot.  The police will be agitated at this point.  No one is to leave the formation of the barricades to their cars.  No loitering around - hurry up and get to your car and leave!  At this point, the people are so agitated about the situation that they want to leave!  The entire system is set up to get people from the event to their cars ASAP. No loitering.  No waiting around.  No enjoying the sites.

Does Downtown have an Anti-Loitering policy I don't know about?  Unless attitudes change, I don't think pouring money into DT will work.  The funny thing is, if we did this, the traffic problem would be reduced!  Instead of everyone wanting to leave at the exact same time, we'd have people wanting to stay, wander around, and enjoy the place.  

Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 05, 2010, 05:40:20 PM
Quote from: cityimrov on July 05, 2010, 05:11:45 PM
Even without looking at the parking issue, DT has major problems.  I'll give an example.  Suppose we somehow manage to find the space to fit Jax Stadium in the middle of downtown.  Yes, in the middle in the core.  That's about 56,000 people per Jaguar game?  A boost to downtown economy, right?  

Here's probably what's going to happen after the game.  So instead of picking the option that takes people into shops and entrainment (like, let's say, Disney World) forcing people to slow down and enjoy themselves, the police will be figuring out to corral people to their cars.  Barricades will be set up from the stadium to the parking lot.  The police will be agitated at this point.  No one is to leave the formation of the barricades to their cars.  No loitering around - hurry up and get to your car and leave!  At this point, the people are so agitated about the situation that they want to leave!  The entire system is set up to get people from the event to their cars ASAP. No loitering.  No waiting around.  No enjoying the sites.

Does Downtown have an Anti-Loitering policy I don't know about?  Unless attitudes change, I don't think pouring money into DT will work.  The funny thing is, if we did this, the traffic problem would be reduced!  Instead of everyone wanting to leave at the exact same time, we'd have people wanting to stay, wander around, and enjoy the place.  

Yeah, but making DT successful on any kind of ongoing basis can't involve a focus on special events, it needs to be organic and comprised of Jacksonville residents actually visiting downtown Jacksonville on a recurring basis. Personally, I don't care what they do with the special events, since they're basically money-losers anyway. Bring in the superbowl or whatever you want, and it won't change anything. DT will still suck the other 364 days a year, and that's the problem.

The permanent solution is in getting local people down there on an ongoing basis, and in getting businesses to open up to serve that traffic. The current biggest impediments to all of this are the asinine parking policies and one-way streets, followed by COJ and the various DT landlords being willing to sit on a bunch of vacant buildings instead of leasing them at reasonable rates because they *think* they're worth more. Newsflash: if they were worth more, they wouldn't be vacant.

But at least getting rid of paid parking and 1-ways would go a long way towards boosting the convenience factor and getting folks down there, and the rest all really flows from that.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: CS Foltz on July 05, 2010, 05:53:56 PM
Chris................that would make sense to go that route, but won't happen because it makes sense and cost's no money! This Administration could not plan its way out of a wet paper bag, a drain pipe or even out a door!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 05, 2010, 09:51:02 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 05, 2010, 04:46:59 PM
I got sick enough of $25 sandwiches that I quit going down there. And by that I mean a $15 Parking ticket + $10 for a sandwich & soda. It got way too annoying to keep screwing with it. No skin off my teeth, the eats are better over here in R'side anyhow. And, interestingly, despite there being no parking meters to be found anywhere over here, there are 10 times more people out and about than there are in DT at any given time of the day. Hmm...what does that teach us?

maybe you should come downtown in the evening...there are at least 10 dining options and parking is free....you know, the 99.9999% of the time when it is dead as a doornail  ;)
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: stjr on July 05, 2010, 09:58:21 PM
The meters are an issue, particularly not accepting credit/debit cards for up to at least 2 or 3 hours at a time.  Certainly, super aggressive enforcement helps to tarnish the user friendly image downtown needs to have.  But, downtown issues are far greater than meters.  Making all 1,600 meters free isn't going to fix downtown.  So, Tufsu, to the extent that making meters free won't solve any major downtown issues, I am a bit in your corner on this one.  Are you sitting down?

The real fix for parking is to have good mass transit connections to outlying areas - streetcars to urban neighborhoods and commuter rail.  Buses throughout. Also, good pedestrian infrastructure.  Then, parking won't be needed at all.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Jerry Moran on July 06, 2010, 02:41:39 AM
I’ve changed my mind about the need for parking meters downtown.  They’re not needed, and should be replaced with a blanket 2 hour free parking limit throughout downtown.  The city has the technology to enforce that limit already in place.  The few remaining downtown merchants will also help by reporting overtime vehicles. Have a “three strikes rule” that entails issuing 3 warning per year for overtime offenses, followed by $25 citations.  Spell the rules out on the warnings. This will discourage downtowners and office workers from parking long term on the street, and relieve the occasional visitor from fear of fines.

The two top concerns my customers have when visiting downtown is getting mugged, and having their car ticketed or towed.  The parking meters, though not enforced after 5 PM (officially 6 PM) only contribute to visitors’ angst.  My business operates after 5 PM, and all the meters do is act as spooky tombstones in a creepy cemetery.  Visitors are already nervous about visiting downtown, and the meters reinforce that apprehension.   Removing the meters would be akin to planting neat rows of flowers across the lawn.  A little less stressful, Huh?  Isn’t that what Downtown needs: a little less stress?

San Marco has the right idea.  Last week I had to visit my broker, Scottrade, that just moved to San Marco from Downtown.  Scottrade was formerly located at street level on Laura between Bay and Forsyth.  It was a pleasure to do business in San Marco.  I found a parking space right away, and there were no parking meters to pay.  I crossed the street, did my business at Scottrade, and left  in less than 10 minutes.  There are a lot of little 10 minute transactions that do not happen downtown because of the parking meters, and because the parking meters are being fed all day by office workers.

I asked the manager of Scottrade why they had moved to San Marco, after 7 or so years downtown.  I remember when they opened downtown and how excited I was about having them nearby.  The manager told me that doing business was difficult in downtown, and that his customers complained about how inconvenient it was to visit the downtown office.  Parking was a major concern, followed by the preponderance of vagrants and general seediness of the area.  He stated that parking in San Marco has not been an issue for his customers.

I also asked the manager if, when downtown, Scottrade had any contact with the downtown community, specifically DVI.  He said no, nothing, never met DVI.  On the other hand, San Marco rolled out the red carpet, and Scottrade was showered with attention by the various community organizations that operate there (I can’t remember which ones). 

So, let’s get rid of the downtown meters and start enforced 2 hour free parking.  I guess DVI will have to find something else to adhere their stickers to.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Jerry Moran on July 06, 2010, 02:58:16 AM
Quote
I live downtown. and other than the Landing, Im curious what dining options are open 99% of the evening hours.

I would be ecstatic to find something besides Burger King and Cafe 331 that is open past 6 Sunday through Wednesday.

Do tell.

Stephen,

In our personal conversations, I've expressed my feeling that the MetroJacksonville Forum is not an appropriate place to pimp one's business, and that I held considerable disdain for those who do.

That being said, to answer your question, La Cena is always open Tuesday - Saturday from 5 PM until very late, and if you do not want to sit in the main dining room, all of our appetizers and appetizer portions of pasta are available in the bar area at appetizer prices.  We'll also throw in fresh bread, butter, and grissini with any order, including beer or wine at the bar. I think you will find La Cena to be a great value considering what you receive for your money.

That's all I'll say.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: cityimrov on July 06, 2010, 05:22:23 AM
Quote from: Jerry Moran on July 06, 2010, 02:41:39 AM
I’ve changed my mind about the need for parking meters downtown.  They’re not needed, and should be replaced with a blanket 2 hour free parking limit throughout downtown.  The city has the technology to enforce that limit already in place.  The few remaining downtown merchants will also help by reporting overtime vehicles. Have a “three strikes rule” that entails issuing 3 warning per year for overtime offenses, followed by $25 citations.  Spell the rules out on the warnings. This will discourage downtowners and office workers from parking long term on the street, and relieve the occasional visitor from fear of fines.

I don't think the city believes or trusts that the merchants will do just that even though it's in the merchants best interest to do so!  (Either that or the city really wants money!  Or parking enforcement have super special civil servant protection making them expensive to fire!)  For some strange reason, the city, especially the mayors office, is ready to go to war over parking.  

From the sound of most posts here, paid street parking is a good starting point to fixing downtown.  If the city extended an olive branch granting people what they wanted here, downtown might have a small chance of surviving instead of the death spiral it's in today. 

My biggest fear is if the city suddenly find a large sum of cash to spend on downtown before fixing the fundamental issues presented here - which doesn't cost much money!  Maybe even save money!  
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: thelakelander on July 06, 2010, 06:47:18 AM
Although it's true a vibrant downtown would bring in more, in a tunnel view type of outlook, the meters and ticketing bring in revenue.  That's most likely the major reason they are still in place.

As for restaurants at night, the majority open are probably in the hotels and the Landing.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 06, 2010, 08:21:43 AM
Quote from: stephendare on July 05, 2010, 11:29:14 PM
I live downtown. and other than the Landing, Im curious what dining options are open 99% of the evening hours.

I would be ecstatic to find something besides Burger King and Cafe 331 that is open past 6 Sunday through Wednesday.

Do tell.

ok...in addition to the 2 you mentioned (I would have only counteed Cafe 331):

Big Pete's Pizza
Casa Dora
Northstar Substation
La Cena
London Bridge
Chicago Pizza (Landing)
Hooters (Landing)
Benny's (Landing)
Vito's (Landing)
American Cafe (Landing)
Cinco de Mayo (Landing)
Koja Sushi (Landing)
Juliette's (Omni)
Trellises (Hyatt)

plus there are the places on the Southbank as well as City Hall Pub....and of course you can get appetizer-type items at Twisted Martini and also get hot food and/or subs at Winn Dixie.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Jaxson on July 06, 2010, 08:30:21 AM
Quote from: thelakelander on July 06, 2010, 06:47:18 AM
Although it's true a vibrant downtown would bring in more, in a tunnel view type of outlook, the meters and ticketing bring in revenue.  That's most likely the major reason they are still in place.

As for restaurants at night, the majority open are probably in the hotels and the Landing.

The revenue aspect of the parking meters is what is most troubling.  Lakelander is right that our city's tunnel vision is more focused on nickel and diming people over parking fines instead of cultivating a downtown where everyone benefits from increased revenue for local businesses.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 06, 2010, 08:37:20 AM
Just to set the record straight, I am in favor of modernizing our parking system....which means replacing meters throughout downtown with new meters that accept credit cards or having parking boxes (1 per block) that do the same....further, on selected blocks/streets, I would endorse removing the meters entirely and insted having time-limited free parking (anywhere from 30 minutes to 2 hours)....however, enforcement must still be a part of the plan...without it, office workers will use free parking spaces all day and there won't be available spaces on the street for shoppers/visitors.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 06, 2010, 09:15:43 AM
Quote from: stephendare on July 06, 2010, 08:46:09 AM

Do you have any proof to back up this wild claim?  You keep repeating it, but legitimately, how will the 6 thousand workers of downtown fill the 35 thousand parking spaces of downtown?  What stores do you imagine are open that would be blocked?

Do you have any retail experience to back up this idea?

Or do you just simply know better than every merchant who has ever posted on the subject?

Well I can come up with plenty of proof that there are far more than 6,000 workers in downtown (even in the northbank core)...as for my parking theory, I don't have any proof....just a pretty informed hunch that workers who currently pay to park in a lot/garage might be interested in free parking.

That said, I suggested a trial period for free parking on a thread a few weeks ago...and you threw it out as poppycock.

As for retail/dining....there are far more options open during the day than at night....places like Chew are mob packed most days for lunch, so they're not hurting for business because of the meters....and as Jerry Moran pointed out, meter enforcement does stop at 5pm....perhaps the meter times/information should be changed to reflect this.  
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 06, 2010, 09:19:17 AM
Stephen...I'm not going to fight with you about this today....you asked what places were open at night for dining and I gave you a list....my 99.9999% comment was related to a comment made by another poster implying that downtown is just about always dead.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Fallen Buckeye on July 06, 2010, 10:02:00 AM
So to summarize. Here are some key issues to address to increase vibrancy in DT.
-Remove barriers that keep people from doing day to day business within DT such as parking issues and one-way streets that are if nothing else perceived barriers by the general public.
-Improve connectivity both within DT and with adjacent neighborhoods.
-Encourage dense, mixed development on a pedestrian scale to make it possible to walk to a majority of destinations once you are downtown instead of spreading revitalization efforts here and there across DT.
-Along those same lines make it easy to be a pedestrian DT with carefully planned installation of bulbouts, center medians, lighting, and mass transit lines.
-Adjusting Zoning Regs to make it easier to develop in town instead of on the fringes of suburbia.
-Improve signage to make DT more user friendly for both motorists and pedestrians.
-Address public perception of high crime rates through public info campaign, increased visibility of police prescence on the ground, improved lighting.

I may be leaving a couple things out, but these seem like realistic goals that could implemented incrementally to improve downtown. Some of these things are probably already taking place hopefully.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: RockStar on July 06, 2010, 10:07:32 AM
Um, are the one way streets really that confusing to people? Because that's just sad. Country mouse needs to visit city mouse more often...
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: JC on July 06, 2010, 10:27:26 AM
People need to live and work downtown!  Jacksonville should create and fund a limited program for say 1000 people to subsidize their rent based on a sliding scale.  People who are willing to live downtown will use the services and patronize the business in the city limits.  This can be a coalition funded by business groups, charity organizations and city government.  

Lets say this were done for 1000 people and the median income were around 40,000 you are talking $40,000,000 of which a large portion would be spent on downtown business and entertainment.  The more people that live downtown the more people that will want to visit and live because right now its a pretty damn depressing and sometimes scary place to visit!

A brief note on parking.

Yesterday my wife and I got a 25.00 ticket at Jax Beach for parking too close to a stop sign even though there was more than a car length between us and the stop sign (30' is the minimum so make sure you bring your tape measure because the dam curbs aren't painted!)

We wanted to but didn't go to Treaty Oak Park because there is no clear parking!

We had to illegally park at RCBC/Mosh parking to walk across the Main St Bridge, where we discussed Zombieland rules because of our fellow bridge walkers.  

We then ate dinner at Outback because we were worried about getting another ticket, only this time downtown!

Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Traveller on July 06, 2010, 10:34:56 AM
Quote from: RockStar on July 06, 2010, 10:07:32 AM
Um, are the one way streets really that confusing to people? Because that's just sad. Country mouse needs to visit city mouse more often...

I was almost hit this morning by a driver heading north on Laura between Forsyth and Adams, so apparently it's still confusing to some people.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 06, 2010, 10:56:08 AM
Quote from: RockStar on July 06, 2010, 10:07:32 AM
Um, are the one way streets really that confusing to people? Because that's just sad. Country mouse needs to visit city mouse more often...

+1
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Fallen Buckeye on July 06, 2010, 11:04:56 AM
Quote from: RockStar on July 06, 2010, 10:07:32 AM
Um, are the one way streets really that confusing to people? Because that's just sad. Country mouse needs to visit city mouse more often...

Please tell me why one way streets are so preferable to 2-way streets. That's the really the vital question.

And elitist attitudes like that are a good way to turn people off to positive changes. Especially in a city like Jax where urban, suburban, and rural are all in one boat. You attract more bees with honey my friend.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Ethylene on July 06, 2010, 11:16:32 AM
Quote from: Jerry Moran on July 06, 2010, 02:58:16 AM

Stephen,

In our personal conversations, I've expressed my feeling that the MetroJacksonville Forum is not an appropriate place to pimp one's business, and that I held considerable disdain for those who do.

That being said, to answer your question, La Cena is always open Tuesday - Saturday from 5 PM until very late, and if you do not want to sit in the main dining room, all of our appetizers and appetizer portions of pasta are available in the bar area at appetizer prices.  We'll also throw in fresh bread, butter, and grissini with any order, including beer or wine at the bar. I think you will find La Cena to be a great value considering what you receive for your money.

That's all I'll say.

Ok, let me pimp it for you! I love La Cena! Homemade bread, pastas and fresh seafood all delicious with wonderful servers, Victoria and Marlene who know me by name. Also, Wilifred (sp?) in the kitchen gets a shout out too. Jerry will even walk you out to your car when you're done. They all treat me like a Queen and I am there more than an other downtown restaurant open in the evening. It helps too that it's within walking distance of my workplace but I usually move my car to be closer and avoiding having to walk too long w/ Jerry, haha, just teasing. Sometimes, he even shows me funny things on his computer! Hands down the best dining establishment downtown for me and that's all I'm saying but it needed saying!  ::)
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 06, 2010, 11:33:17 AM
Quote from: Fallen Buckeye on July 06, 2010, 11:04:56 AM
Quote from: RockStar on July 06, 2010, 10:07:32 AM
Um, are the one way streets really that confusing to people? Because that's just sad. Country mouse needs to visit city mouse more often...

Please tell me why one way streets are so preferable to 2-way streets. That's the really the vital question.


At one time, the thought was that they moved traffic quicker (which was deemed a good thing)...they are also more efficient in dowtown areas as they allow signal progression (everything turning green in sequence)....finally, the theory was that they were safer for pedestrians (far fewer conflict points).

The newer school of thought is that downtowns should not have fast-moving traffic and that two-way streets are better for businesses...Jax. is in the process of converting some of the streets (Laura, Bay, Independent, etc.) but it isn't as easy as it sounds...conversion requires new mast arm signals and retiming of the system.

Also, some streets Main/Ocean and State/Union should remain one-way due to the high traffic volumes they carry.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Fallen Buckeye on July 06, 2010, 12:21:56 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 06, 2010, 11:33:17 AM
At one time, the thought was that they moved traffic quicker (which was deemed a good thing)...they are also more efficient in dowtown areas as they allow signal progression (everything turning green in sequence)....finally, the theory was that they were safer for pedestrians (far fewer conflict points).

The newer school of thought is that downtowns should not have fast-moving traffic and that two-way streets are better for businesses...Jax. is in the process of converting some of the streets (Laura, Bay, Independent, etc.) but it isn't as easy as it sounds...conversion requires new mast arm signals and retiming of the system.

Also, some streets Main/Ocean and State/Union should remain one-way due to the high traffic volumes they carry.

Basically, it was a failed experiment. Turns out that faster traffic isn't good for pedestrians. The harder to navigate streets are not so great for business. I don't think it was a malicious plan to destroy DT, but we need to begin fixing our mistakes and understandably it will take some time. I think that as streets are resurfaced they should be reconverted to save time and effort.

And I agree that in some cases one-ways make sense. I would leave State/Union because of the high volume of traffic between I-95 and the stadium district even if it cuts off downtown from Springfield. That problem could be fixed with a combo of transit and foot bridges.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: JC on July 06, 2010, 12:40:38 PM
How about left turns? 

Benefits of one way

Left on red is allowed if one way to one way. 

If you are on a two way two lane road and are making a left you block the traffic behind you while you wait for the traffic going straight to clear, unless of course you get lucky and two people make a left at the same time. 
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 06, 2010, 12:46:55 PM
Quote from: JC on July 06, 2010, 12:40:38 PM
How about left turns? 

Benefits of one way

Left on red is allowed if one way to one way. 

If you are on a two way two lane road and are making a left you block the traffic behind you while you wait for the traffic going straight to clear, unless of course you get lucky and two people make a left at the same time. 

The convenience benefits of eliminating one-way streets far outweigh the downside of elimintating "Left on Red". Besides, most of the intersections down there have big "No Turn on Red" signs anyway, so it's a moot point...
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 06, 2010, 12:47:43 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 06, 2010, 08:37:20 AM
Just to set the record straight, I am in favor of modernizing our parking system....which means replacing meters throughout downtown with new meters that accept credit cards or having parking boxes (1 per block) that do the same....further, on selected blocks/streets, I would endorse removing the meters entirely and insted having time-limited free parking (anywhere from 30 minutes to 2 hours)....however, enforcement must still be a part of the plan...without it, office workers will use free parking spaces all day and there won't be available spaces on the street for shoppers/visitors.

Are you kidding? Even if you take COJ's B.S. estimate of 25,000 workers downtown (I believe the truth to be closer to 5,000 and dwindling by the day) then there are already way more parking spaces than people. What is gonna happen to make your doomsday scenario possible, Tufsu? So is every office worker going to drive down there, park a car, then run home and get their second car and park that one too? Oh wait...even if they brought 3 cars apiece...there's STILL way more parking than people!

Seriously I don't understand why you're so hell-bent on this viewpoint, it just makes no sense, and your viewpoint is the same view that has turned downtown into the wasteland it is today.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Jaxson on July 06, 2010, 12:49:28 PM
Quote from: JC on July 06, 2010, 12:40:38 PM
How about left turns?  

Benefits of one way

Left on red is allowed if one way to one way.  

If you are on a two way two lane road and are making a left you block the traffic behind you while you wait for the traffic going straight to clear, unless of course you get lucky and two people make a left at the same time.  

@JC -- You make an excellent point about how one-way streets make it easier to turn left.  It can be frustrating to have to wait for the light to cycle more than once because the car ahead of you is waiting to turn left from a two-way street onto another two-way street.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: JC on July 06, 2010, 12:51:59 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 06, 2010, 12:46:55 PM
Quote from: JC on July 06, 2010, 12:40:38 PM
How about left turns? 

Benefits of one way

Left on red is allowed if one way to one way. 

If you are on a two way two lane road and are making a left you block the traffic behind you while you wait for the traffic going straight to clear, unless of course you get lucky and two people make a left at the same time. 

The convenience benefits of eliminating one-way streets far outweigh the downside of elimintating "Left on Red". Besides, most of the intersections down there have big "No Turn on Red" signs anyway, so it's a moot point...


So you don't forsee a problem with a two lane two way street and people trying to make a left while blocking the intersection and the traffic behind them?  I think its not a moot point and I think it would create more aggravation than it would solve, simple because if you are paying attention most on way streets alternate so you don't need a degree to navigate them.

What are the benefits of changing back to two way streets?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 06, 2010, 12:53:11 PM
Quote from: RockStar on July 06, 2010, 10:07:32 AM
Um, are the one way streets really that confusing to people? Because that's just sad. Country mouse needs to visit city mouse more often...

No they're not confusing, it's just annoying. Who wants to drive in 10-block circles waiting at 50 red lights just to try and get to something that's located on a 1-way street? It's a hassle, and same as the parking meters and draconian enforcement policies, people will get sick of hassles and quit coming.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 06, 2010, 12:53:53 PM
Quote from: JC on July 06, 2010, 12:51:59 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 06, 2010, 12:46:55 PM
Quote from: JC on July 06, 2010, 12:40:38 PM
How about left turns?  

Benefits of one way

Left on red is allowed if one way to one way.  

If you are on a two way two lane road and are making a left you block the traffic behind you while you wait for the traffic going straight to clear, unless of course you get lucky and two people make a left at the same time.  

The convenience benefits of eliminating one-way streets far outweigh the downside of elimintating "Left on Red". Besides, most of the intersections down there have big "No Turn on Red" signs anyway, so it's a moot point...


So you don't forsee a problem with a two lane two way street and people trying to make a left while blocking the intersection and the traffic behind them?  I think its not a moot point and I think it would create more aggravation than it would solve, simple because if you are paying attention most on way streets alternate so you don't need a degree to navigate them.

What are the benefits of changing back to two way streets?

No I don't, because the streets are wide enough to incorporate dedicated left turn lanes. It's a total non-issue.

The benefit is convenience, as I described above.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: JC on July 06, 2010, 12:54:34 PM
Quote from: Jaxson on July 06, 2010, 12:49:28 PM
Quote from: JC on July 06, 2010, 12:40:38 PM
How about left turns?  

Benefits of one way

Left on red is allowed if one way to one way.  

If you are on a two way two lane road and are making a left you block the traffic behind you while you wait for the traffic going straight to clear, unless of course you get lucky and two people make a left at the same time.  

@JC -- You make an excellent point about how one-way streets make it easier to turn left.  It can be frustrating to have to wait for the light to cycle more than once because the car ahead of you is waiting to turn left from a two-way street onto another two-way street.

Yes, you illustrate it better than I did!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 06, 2010, 12:55:49 PM
Quote from: JC on July 06, 2010, 12:54:34 PM
Quote from: Jaxson on July 06, 2010, 12:49:28 PM
Quote from: JC on July 06, 2010, 12:40:38 PM
How about left turns? 

Benefits of one way

Left on red is allowed if one way to one way. 

If you are on a two way two lane road and are making a left you block the traffic behind you while you wait for the traffic going straight to clear, unless of course you get lucky and two people make a left at the same time. 

@JC -- You make an excellent point about how one-way streets make it easier to turn left.  It can be frustrating to have to wait for the light to cycle more than once because the car ahead of you is waiting to turn left from a two-way street onto another two-way street.

Yes, you illustrate it better than I did!

Yes people just LOVE being forced to drive in giant circles and having to wait at a million red-lights, just so they can enjoy the novelty of turning left on red at a handful of them. Seriously, are you people kidding me?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Jaxson on July 06, 2010, 12:57:27 PM
I agree with JC - It is legitimate for us to determine the merits of eliminating one-way streets in downtown.  There could be unintended consequences if we move forward without weighing the advantages and disadvantages.

As for me, I would personally prefer a trip around the block to make a left hand turn over waiting for oncoming traffic to clear so I could make that left-hand turn. 
Furthermore, there is also the danger of those who would rather gamble and make a risky left-hand turn in front of oncoming traffic than yield for a few more seconds.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: JC on July 06, 2010, 12:59:54 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 06, 2010, 12:55:49 PM
Quote from: JC on July 06, 2010, 12:54:34 PM
Quote from: Jaxson on July 06, 2010, 12:49:28 PM
Quote from: JC on July 06, 2010, 12:40:38 PM
How about left turns? 

Benefits of one way

Left on red is allowed if one way to one way. 

If you are on a two way two lane road and are making a left you block the traffic behind you while you wait for the traffic going straight to clear, unless of course you get lucky and two people make a left at the same time. 

@JC -- You make an excellent point about how one-way streets make it easier to turn left.  It can be frustrating to have to wait for the light to cycle more than once because the car ahead of you is waiting to turn left from a two-way street onto another two-way street.

Yes, you illustrate it better than I did!

Yes people just LOVE being forced to drive in giant circles and having to wait at a million red-lights, just so they can enjoy the novelty of turning left on red at a handful of them. Seriously, are you people kidding me?

I am really not kidding... At all... Seems like a waste of money to change all those signs, reline the roads, change the red lights and on and on!  There are bigger fish to fry and bickering about such a non issue seems sort of pointless.  

But I know, "being forced" to do anything is terrible.  Although, in most situations patrons dont have the luxury of parking in front of the business they are visiting anyway so you park close by and WALK, I realize this concept is a novelty in Jacksonville and I wouldnt want anyone to be "forced" to walk but seriously, thats how it works in most metro areas!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Jaxson on July 06, 2010, 01:05:04 PM
@JC - Don't forget the logistics of aligning the downtown streets with the various on-ramps, off-ramps and viaducts that connect with the expressways, the bridges, etc.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: JC on July 06, 2010, 01:07:29 PM
Quote from: Jaxson on July 06, 2010, 01:05:04 PM
@JC - Don't forget the logistics of aligning the downtown streets with the various on-ramps, off-ramps and viaducts that connect with the expressways, the bridges, etc.

Excellent point!  As you said earlier there could be unintended consequences.  I would also like to add that the money spent on this foolishness could be allocated for commuter rail :)
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: CS Foltz on July 06, 2010, 01:24:33 PM
I don't think the situation has been studied or analyzed enough yet..................we need to do more studies! JTA needs to take lead on this so it can be stretched out another 20 years!;) I know............lets get some more consulting work done!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Fallen Buckeye on July 06, 2010, 01:45:19 PM
You can minimize costs by completing conversion as roads need to to be repaved as roads need to be repaved and repainted from time to time anyways. The real costs would be new mast arm signals. And yes this should absolutely be planned out as to which streets should be converted and which should not before they take any action.  But in the end, I think it is beneficial and makes downtown more user friendly. It's not the most important thing hampering revitalization in DT, but it's something to consider.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: BridgeTroll on July 06, 2010, 02:17:08 PM
Wow... Jax has got to have the easiest downtown area I have ever had the pleasure to navigate... Driven Boston, San Francisco, LA, Seattle, Honolulu, Chicago, Atlanta, Milwaukee, etc.  Jax is easy compared to some of those places...  BTW... all those downtowns have street metered parking... (more expensive too) though most have the newer systems.

My pet peeve has not yet been mentioned... Driving into or out of downtown early in the morning or late at night and sitting at a red light... seemingly forever... with nary a car in sight.  Same at the next light... and the nextandthenext...zzzzzzzzzzzzzz :)
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: JC on July 06, 2010, 02:38:25 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 06, 2010, 02:17:08 PM
Wow... Jax has got to have the easiest downtown area I have ever had the pleasure to navigate... Driven Boston, San Francisco, LA, Seattle, Honolulu, Chicago, Atlanta, Milwaukee, etc.  Jax is easy compared to some of those places...  BTW... all those downtowns have street metered parking... (more expensive too) though most have the newer systems.

My pet peeve has not yet been mentioned... Driving into or out of downtown early in the morning or late at night and sitting at a red light... seemingly forever... with nary a car in sight.  Same at the next light... and the nextandthenext...zzzzzzzzzzzzzz :)

An argument could be made that the lights slow traffic down to make the area safer for pedestrians but the rebuttal would of course be 'what pedestrians.'
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: BridgeTroll on July 06, 2010, 02:47:11 PM
Exactly... I have no problem stopping for traffic auto or pedestrian.  My point is our traffic light system does not seem to take into account times when traffic is very light.  You could easily make a case for flashing yellows at certain intersections late at night or early morning...
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 06, 2010, 02:47:30 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 06, 2010, 12:46:55 PM
Besides, most of the intersections down there have big "No Turn on Red" signs anyway, so it's a moot point...

No they don't...I do it all the time...the only ones that restrict turns on red are those with very high pedestrian crossings

As for your parking assertions....downtown has 44,000 total parking paces w/ 20,000 being in the core...this includes the garages/lots that charge....metered spaces only accounts for about 1,600.

Employment is 51,000 in all of downtown, with 18,000 in the core itself.

How many people do you think would use the pay lots/garages if all the street parking was free with no restrictions?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: urbanlibertarian on July 06, 2010, 03:47:23 PM
Changing one way streets to two way will benefit pedestrians and DT businesses at the expense of motorists (slower speeds) and taxpayers (cost of the switch).  I'm a DT resident and I'm leaning in favor of it.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: urbanlibertarian on July 06, 2010, 03:50:45 PM
I also support parking meter removal and relaxation of zoning and signage regulation DT to help businesses thrive.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Fallen Buckeye on July 06, 2010, 04:29:01 PM
Quote from: urbanlibertarian on July 06, 2010, 03:47:23 PM
Changing one way streets to two way will benefit pedestrians and DT businesses at the expense of motorists (slower speeds) and taxpayers (cost of the switch).  I'm a DT resident and I'm leaning in favor of it.

Although you could argue that if the business environment is better then they would pull in more tax dollars in the long run. Basically it's an investment.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: RockStar on July 06, 2010, 04:29:20 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 06, 2010, 12:53:11 PM
Quote from: RockStar on July 06, 2010, 10:07:32 AM
Um, are the one way streets really that confusing to people? Because that's just sad. Country mouse needs to visit city mouse more often...

No they're not confusing, it's just annoying. Who wants to drive in 10-block circles waiting at 50 red lights just to try and get to something that's located on a 1-way street? It's a hassle, and same as the parking meters and draconian enforcement policies, people will get sick of hassles and quit coming.
10 block circles and 50 red lights? Which downtown are you talking about?

Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 06, 2010, 04:39:19 PM
Quote from: Jaxson on July 06, 2010, 12:57:27 PM
I agree with JC - It is legitimate for us to determine the merits of eliminating one-way streets in downtown.  There could be unintended consequences if we move forward without weighing the advantages and disadvantages.

As for me, I would personally prefer a trip around the block to make a left hand turn over waiting for oncoming traffic to clear so I could make that left-hand turn. 
Furthermore, there is also the danger of those who would rather gamble and make a risky left-hand turn in front of oncoming traffic than yield for a few more seconds.

Then incorporate turn arrows in the left-turn lanes. Problem solved.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 06, 2010, 04:43:10 PM
Quote from: RockStar on July 06, 2010, 04:29:20 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 06, 2010, 12:53:11 PM
Quote from: RockStar on July 06, 2010, 10:07:32 AM
Um, are the one way streets really that confusing to people? Because that's just sad. Country mouse needs to visit city mouse more often...

No they're not confusing, it's just annoying. Who wants to drive in 10-block circles waiting at 50 red lights just to try and get to something that's located on a 1-way street? It's a hassle, and same as the parking meters and draconian enforcement policies, people will get sick of hassles and quit coming.
10 block circles and 50 red lights? Which downtown are you talking about?

This one. And I may have been exaggerating to make a point...but not by much.

Most people have to go in large circles downtown (well, squares to be accurate), waiting at a bunch of redlights in the process, to get anywhere because of the 1-way street grid. Eliminating that would make things much more user-friendly. The 1-ways were implemented to handle a level of traffic that our downtown hasn't seen in 30 years and probably will never see again.

At this point, it's just an unnecessary hassle that serves no purpose. Why not get rid of it.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 06, 2010, 05:08:00 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 06, 2010, 02:47:30 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 06, 2010, 12:46:55 PM
Besides, most of the intersections down there have big "No Turn on Red" signs anyway, so it's a moot point...

No they don't...I do it all the time...the only ones that restrict turns on red are those with very high pedestrian crossings

As for your parking assertions....downtown has 44,000 total parking paces w/ 20,000 being in the core...this includes the garages/lots that charge....metered spaces only accounts for about 1,600.

Employment is 51,000 in all of downtown, with 18,000 in the core itself.

How many people do you think would use the pay lots/garages if all the street parking was free with no restrictions?

Tufsu, that 51,000 figure is outrageously inaccurate. I suspect it probably includes at least the Southbank, probably some other areas that shouldn't be getting lumped in as well, and what's the date on that? The study you got that figure from is probably printed on papyrus...

There's a few thousand workers on the Northbank, max. And most of those are probably working for the City in one capacity or another and have their own dedicated parking anyway. 51,000 people, no way that's accurate.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: JC on July 06, 2010, 05:10:39 PM
51,000 seems pretty high, where does that number come from?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: thelakelander on July 06, 2010, 05:13:57 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 06, 2010, 05:08:00 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 06, 2010, 02:47:30 PM
Employment is 51,000 in all of downtown, with 18,000 in the core itself.

Tufsu, that 51,000 figure is outrageously inaccurate. I suspect it probably includes at least the Southbank, probably some other areas that shouldn't be getting lumped in as well, and what's the date on that? The study you got that figure from is probably printed on papyrus...

There's a few thousand workers on the Northbank, max. And most of those are probably working for the City in one capacity or another and have their own dedicated parking anyway. 51,000 people, no way that's accurate.

51,000 (which happens to be down from the 60,000 it had about 10 years ago) includes the Southbank, Riverside Avenue, LaVilla and the Northbank.  The 18,000 tufsu1 mentioned represents the Northbank core.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: vicupstate on July 06, 2010, 05:16:25 PM
The one way streets and the meters need to go.  The sooner the better.  Parking DT could still be time-limited but free.  That would prevent office workers from leaving the garages.  

Jax has one of the most unfriendly, inconvenient DT's I have ever experienced from a pedestrian or motorist standpoint.  It is more difficult for any kind of retail establishment to thrive on a one-way street.  They often become speedways.

Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 06, 2010, 05:19:29 PM
Quote from: thelakelander on July 06, 2010, 05:13:57 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 06, 2010, 05:08:00 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 06, 2010, 02:47:30 PM
Employment is 51,000 in all of downtown, with 18,000 in the core itself.

Tufsu, that 51,000 figure is outrageously inaccurate. I suspect it probably includes at least the Southbank, probably some other areas that shouldn't be getting lumped in as well, and what's the date on that? The study you got that figure from is probably printed on papyrus...

There's a few thousand workers on the Northbank, max. And most of those are probably working for the City in one capacity or another and have their own dedicated parking anyway. 51,000 people, no way that's accurate.

51,000 (which happens to be down from the 60,000 it had about 10 years ago) includes the Southbank, Riverside Avenue, LaVilla and the Northbank.  The 18,000 tufsu1 mentioned represents the Northbank core.

Absolutely no way there's even 18,000 on the Northbank, that figure by itself, even broken out of the 51k figure, is still outrageously inaccurate. 5,000 or so is probably a fair representation, and even that would probably have to include all the city government workers who have their own dedicated parking and so aren't part of this debate anyhow.

And why is he throwing around that 51,000 figure anyway, if he knows that includes Riverside and the Southbank? That's completely misleading.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: thelakelander on July 06, 2010, 06:11:11 PM
Because the Southbank and Riverside Avenue (Brooklyn) are officially considered a part of DT.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: CS Foltz on July 06, 2010, 08:10:45 PM
Light sequencing, I believe is the perview of either DOT or JTA and is somewhat antiquated in design and timing! Certain stretches are on timers and biased for traffic flow but I would have to ask why? Timing lights has been a proven instrument for maintaining traffic flow all over the US of A! Speed limits are set and lights are sequenced to allow traffic to move at that predetermined speed! If downtown is going to have one ways moved around to account for the magnificent BRT coming, I would hope that some one somewhere has taken light timing into account.................but somehow I think this has not been considered! Bay Meadows is supposed to be on an ITS System and if it is............it is a really really dumb computer! Rush hour still is the pits! Just add some more bus stops on two lane roads without a bus pull off and watch the traffic flow to a stop......great planning! Looking forward to more of this outstanding planning and vision!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Fallen Buckeye on July 06, 2010, 09:58:04 PM
Quote from: CS Foltz on July 06, 2010, 08:10:45 PM
Light sequencing, I believe is the perview of either DOT or JTA and is somewhat antiquated in design and timing! Certain stretches are on timers and biased for traffic flow but I would have to ask why? Timing lights has been a proven instrument for maintaining traffic flow all over the US of A! Speed limits are set and lights are sequenced to allow traffic to move at that predetermined speed! If downtown is going to have one ways moved around to account for the magnificent BRT coming, I would hope that some one somewhere has taken light timing into account.................but somehow I think this has not been considered! Bay Meadows is supposed to be on an ITS System and if it is............it is a really really dumb computer! Rush hour still is the pits! Just add some more bus stops on two lane roads without a bus pull off and watch the traffic flow to a stop......great planning! Looking forward to more of this outstanding planning and vision!
We already have a monorail to move people within the downtown area and hopefully street cars within a few years. That would mean buses don't need to really run so much through downtown which makes those bus stops not so much of a problem. If we are able to attract residents because of dense walkable development patterns and pedestrian features are in place hopefully car traffic is reduced anyways except during special events. And for those who still insist on getting through Dodge as quick as possible they could take State/Union or 95 which could be left as is more or less. The real crux of the matter is that it isn't one magic bullet to solve the downtown situation. It's an intelligent, comprehensive approach that considers all factors that will bring back downtown because all of these problems are related.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 06, 2010, 10:29:03 PM
Quote from: CS Foltz on July 06, 2010, 08:10:45 PM
Light sequencing, I believe is the perview of either DOT or JTA and is somewhat antiquated in design and timing!

nope...most of the signal timing systems in Florida are maintained by local governments...in the case of downtown Jax, its COJ Public Works.

And if you don't believe the job #, take it up with JEDC or DVI....each year they provide a report...I have quoted the 2009 annual report which was recently publshed.

While I think the 18,000 figure seems a bit high for the core in 2010, your 5,000 estimate is grossly low...I'm willing to bet there are more than 5,000 workers in the BOA and Modis buildings combined....heck, the Modis building alone is probably over 1 million square feet of leasable area....assuming 3 workers/1000 sf and only 50% occupancy, you still get 3300+ employees
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: CS Foltz on July 06, 2010, 10:43:10 PM
OK............COJ Public Works appears to be as talented as the folks at JTA when it comes to traffic control! As I have posted before, we are busy bandaiding most of our problems, if at all, traffic....downtown revival, mass transit system that is actually cost effective and user friendly......we have a ton of problems and all we do is discuss, consult and study! One of these days we might get on top of an issue before it gets out of hand! I am really looking forward to the coming elections .....it is past time to get something positive accomplished, other than spending tax dollars like there is an endless supply!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 08:43:17 AM
ok...we get it....you don't like anything related to COJ or JTA  ;)

but really....have you ever driven downtown...the traffic signal timing is practically flawless....progression is good and most vehciles get through one one signal.

If anything, maybe it is too good....I say this because one can hit 10 straight green lights on State/Union by going about 40mph
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 09:05:40 AM
no....when dining at the varied establishments downtown, I usually walk or ride my bike  ;)
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: urbanlibertarian on July 07, 2010, 09:41:06 AM
"If anything, maybe it is too good....I say this because one can hit 10 straight green lights on State/Union by going about 40mph."

I can corroborate this.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Captain Zissou on July 07, 2010, 09:58:05 AM
Quote from: urbanlibertarian on July 07, 2010, 09:41:06 AM
"If anything, maybe it is too good....I say this because one can hit 10 straight green lights on State/Union by going about 40mph."

I can corroborate this.

I can too, but I usually go about 45.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 10:21:49 AM
Quote from: thelakelander on July 06, 2010, 06:11:11 PM
Because the Southbank and Riverside Avenue (Brooklyn) are officially considered a part of DT.

Tufsu was acting like that figure was dispositive in the context of this debate, which was clearly never about Riverside, LaVilla, or the Southbank. And I find this especially ironic, when the very reason those areas have been more successful than the original urban core is in fact the lack of parking meters and asinine enforcement policies.

And I still say there's no way in hell there's 18,000 workers in the Northbank core. Whatever study still says that must be printed on papyrus...
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 10:32:03 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 08:43:17 AM
but really....have you ever driven downtown...the traffic signal timing is practically

That's only true on State and Union Streets, which are surrounded by a total wasteland of vacant lots, and which are just conduits for everyone connecting to/from I-95 and the suburbs over by Arlington and Regency.

Most of those people aren't there for any reason that has anything to do with downtown, they're just there because that happens to be the conduit between 95 and one of our largest suburbs. I wouldn't even call them part of downtown, and they should be made into raised expressways to remove the artificial separation of Main Street and the core.

The rest of the street grid downtown isn't nearly as well synched up, and because of the asinine 1-way setup, you have to drive in giant squares and wait at a bunch of lights because you couldn't simply make a turn onto the street you were going to.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: cline on July 07, 2010, 10:32:18 AM
QuoteAnd I still say there's no way in hell there's 18,000 workers in the Northbank core.

Do you have any data to back this up? 
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 10:39:57 AM
Quote from: cline on July 07, 2010, 10:32:18 AM
QuoteAnd I still say there's no way in hell there's 18,000 workers in the Northbank core.

Do you have any data to back this up?  

We'll talk about that when Tufsu posts the sources of the data claiming 18,000...

Until then, I'm not playing the double-standard game, where someone gets to blurt out whatever figure they want and then demand sources from me when I point out it's ludicrous. That in itself is ludicrous. The figure of less than 6k came directly from a horse's mouth on this one, and that figure is from last year, before taking into account the departure of Modis and the impending departure of Life of the South. Both, incidentally, left citing parking as a major concern.

Quote from: stephendare on July 07, 2010, 10:34:11 AM
Quote from: cline on July 07, 2010, 10:32:18 AM
QuoteAnd I still say there's no way in hell there's 18,000 workers in the Northbank core.

Do you have any data to back this up?  

I can corroborate this.  I heard (as did the metrojacksonville board) directly from the mouth of two DVI board members that the official figure downtown is less than 6000 people.

Damn, Stephen, you just took all the fun out of it! I think it's hilarious when people blurt out random figures that make no sense, and with no documentation, and then turn around and demand that you provide enough research for a senior thesis in order to disagree with their unsupported claims. I was going to toy with that mouse just a little longer...
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: cline on July 07, 2010, 10:40:47 AM
QuoteDamn, Stephen, you just took all the fun out of it! I think it's hilarious when people blurt out random figures that make no sense, and with no documentation, and then turn around and demand that you provide enough research for a senior thesis in order to disagree with their unsupported claims. I was going to toy with that mouse just a little longer...

The numbers came from DVI (as was mentioned earlier in the thread).  DVI's own website states that the core has over 18,000 workers.  

http://downtownjacksonville.org/about-downtown/demographics-and-statistics/
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 10:41:34 AM
Quote from: cline on July 07, 2010, 10:40:47 AM
QuoteDamn, Stephen, you just took all the fun out of it! I think it's hilarious when people blurt out random figures that make no sense, and with no documentation, and then turn around and demand that you provide enough research for a senior thesis in order to disagree with their unsupported claims. I was going to toy with that mouse just a little longer...

That's interesting considereing DVI's website states that the core has over 18,000 workers.  

http://downtownjacksonville.org/about-downtown/demographics-and-statistics/

Those figures are outdated, as I've pointed out from the beginning...

DVI's board knows the true current figure, and it's less than 6k.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 10:44:30 AM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 10:32:03 AM
That's only true on State and Union Streets, which are surrounded by a total wasteland of vacant lots, and which are just conduits for everyone connecting to/from I-95 and the suburbs over by Arlington and Regency.

actually Main/Ocean work pretty well too...as do Forsyth/Bay.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 10:45:16 AM
Quote from: stephendare on July 07, 2010, 10:34:11 AM
Quote from: cline on July 07, 2010, 10:32:18 AM
QuoteAnd I still say there's no way in hell there's 18,000 workers in the Northbank core.

Do you have any data to back this up?  

I can corroborate this.  I heard (as did the metrojacksonville board) directly from the mouth of two DVI board members that the official figure downtown is less than 6000 people.

I call BS on this....the City alone has about 7,000 employees (and most of them are downtown).

If you have some data to back up your assertion, please provide.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: cline on July 07, 2010, 10:50:31 AM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 10:41:34 AM
Quote from: cline on July 07, 2010, 10:40:47 AM
QuoteDamn, Stephen, you just took all the fun out of it! I think it's hilarious when people blurt out random figures that make no sense, and with no documentation, and then turn around and demand that you provide enough research for a senior thesis in order to disagree with their unsupported claims. I was going to toy with that mouse just a little longer...

That's interesting considereing DVI's website states that the core has over 18,000 workers.  

http://downtownjacksonville.org/about-downtown/demographics-and-statistics/

Those figures are outdated, as I've pointed out from the beginning...

DVI's board knows the true current figure, and it's less than 6k.

So the report that came out last month with those numbers is outdated?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: acme54321 on July 07, 2010, 11:07:55 AM
Am I correct in assuming that this 6k number does not include the southbank?  Possibly this 18k number includes the southbank and the brooklyn area?  (Both of which I would consider downtown)
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 11:14:09 AM
Quote from: cline on July 07, 2010, 10:50:31 AM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 10:41:34 AM
Quote from: cline on July 07, 2010, 10:40:47 AM
QuoteDamn, Stephen, you just took all the fun out of it! I think it's hilarious when people blurt out random figures that make no sense, and with no documentation, and then turn around and demand that you provide enough research for a senior thesis in order to disagree with their unsupported claims. I was going to toy with that mouse just a little longer...

That's interesting considereing DVI's website states that the core has over 18,000 workers.  

http://downtownjacksonville.org/about-downtown/demographics-and-statistics/

Those figures are outdated, as I've pointed out from the beginning...

DVI's board knows the true current figure, and it's less than 6k.

So the report that came out last month with those numbers is outdated?

Yes, exactly. Because in the time since then, Life of the South has announced they are probably relocating, and they have almost 400+ workers downtown. Additionally, MPS announced they are relocating, and they have an even larger number. The 6k figure was as-of-now, but because those two large corporations are relocating to the Southside (just like everyone else who left because of the asinine parking policies) the true figure is lower. Unless you see some wisdom in using figures that include hundreds of workers who will be leaving in a few months to plan the future?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 11:16:07 AM
Quote from: acme54321 on July 07, 2010, 11:07:55 AM
Am I correct in assuming that this 6k number does not include the southbank?  Possibly this 18k number includes the southbank and the brooklyn area?  (Both of which I would consider downtown)

Those aren't downtown for the purposes of this debate, because the asinine parking policies at the heart of this debate aren't present in the Soutbank or Brooklyn. In fact, the Southbank has picked up a lot of the people who've been pulling out of the original core for the exact reason that parking isn't an expensive hassle. So including the Southbank in the figure simply disguises the impact of the parking policies in place in the core.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 11:17:44 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 10:45:16 AM
Quote from: stephendare on July 07, 2010, 10:34:11 AM
Quote from: cline on July 07, 2010, 10:32:18 AM
QuoteAnd I still say there's no way in hell there's 18,000 workers in the Northbank core.

Do you have any data to back this up?  

I can corroborate this.  I heard (as did the metrojacksonville board) directly from the mouth of two DVI board members that the official figure downtown is less than 6000 people.

I call BS on this....the City alone has about 7,000 employees (and most of them are downtown).

If you have some data to back up your assertion, please provide.

Tufsu, nobody cares about City workers, they have their own parking and so they aren't relevant to this debate.

We're talking about the impact on private businesses. Which has been disastrous.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: iluvolives on July 07, 2010, 11:18:35 AM
Quote from: stephendare on July 07, 2010, 10:34:11 AM
Quote from: cline on July 07, 2010, 10:32:18 AM
QuoteAnd I still say there's no way in hell there's 18,000 workers in the Northbank core.

Do you have any data to back this up?  



I can corroborate this.  I heard (as did the metrojacksonville board) directly from the mouth of two DVI board members that the official figure downtown is less than 6000 people.

Then perhaps you should have suggested to them to update their website.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: acme54321 on July 07, 2010, 11:19:55 AM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 11:16:07 AM
Quote from: acme54321 on July 07, 2010, 11:07:55 AM
Am I correct in assuming that this 6k number does not include the southbank?  Possibly this 18k number includes the southbank and the brooklyn area?  (Both of which I would consider downtown)

Those aren't downtown for the purposes of this debate, because the asinine parking policies at the heart of this debate aren't present in the Soutbank or Brooklyn. In fact, the Southbank has picked up a lot of the people who've been pulling out of the original core for the exact reason that parking isn't an expensive hassle. So including the Southside in the figures simply disguises the impact of the parking policies in place in the core.

That's exactly what I figured.  Just saying maybe this 18k figure he is throwing out includes those two areas.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 11:24:41 AM
Quote from: acme54321 on July 07, 2010, 11:19:55 AM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 11:16:07 AM
Quote from: acme54321 on July 07, 2010, 11:07:55 AM
Am I correct in assuming that this 6k number does not include the southbank?  Possibly this 18k number includes the southbank and the brooklyn area?  (Both of which I would consider downtown)

Those aren't downtown for the purposes of this debate, because the asinine parking policies at the heart of this debate aren't present in the Soutbank or Brooklyn. In fact, the Southbank has picked up a lot of the people who've been pulling out of the original core for the exact reason that parking isn't an expensive hassle. So including the Southside in the figures simply disguises the impact of the parking policies in place in the core.

That's exactly what I figured.  Just saying maybe this 18k figure he is throwing out includes those two areas.

Yeah, you're right, that's the issue. And it annoys me when Tufsu does that, because he's professionally educated in this field, and though he's well aware of the difference, he still uses these figures that really mean one thing to imply another thing anyway.

I'd be more forgiving if it were just your average poster on the site who may not realize that all these other areas which clearly aren't part of the urban core are nevertheless being included in the figures anyway, but I have a lot less patience for Tufsu because he definitely knows better. This is his profession, and he's well-educated, and well aware of the difference.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: fsujax on July 07, 2010, 11:35:08 AM
Whose numbers am I supposed to believe????? I am confused. 6,000;18,000;50,000???? Can someone get it right? I think MetroJacksonville should create employment  density maps for every block in Downtown. Contact every single tower and get a good handle on the number of employees in each tower. Modis, BofA, AT&T, CSX, BB&T, Suntrust, 550, JEA Tower, Life of the South, Wachovia tower (nb) just a few to start with.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 11:36:34 AM
well I just looked at the socioeconomic data used in the recent 2035 LRTP Update...as part of that study, the travel demand model was validated/calibrated to the year 2005.

Employment data was obtained from the State of Florida and business data groups....using the downtown core boundaries of the river, Jefferson St, Union St, and Market St, there were just under 20,000 employees in 2005....keep in mind that this does not include the 3000+ employees at the Sheriff's office and the jail.

So, logic tells me that the DVI/JEDC estimate of 18,000 is far closer to being correct than the 6,000
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 11:37:48 AM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 11:17:44 AM
Tufsu, nobody cares about City workers, they have their own parking and so they aren't relevant to this debate.

really...where do the employees in City Hall, the annex, the courthouse, and the Ed Ball building park?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 11:38:14 AM
Look guys,

Just to clarify, downtown can't just be one giant city-hall. If we want it to be successful, then that needs to be based on private business succeeding down there. This debate isn't about government workers, and it's not about what's happening in Riverside, the Southbank, or LaVilla or Brooklyn either. Using figures that include those extra people is simply masking how grave the situation really is.

This debate is about the success of private businesses in the urban core, and that is rapidly becoming extinct. It's also a little frustrating to keep enduring these endless arguments from the Tufsus and Clines who apparently think the current approach is just peachy. Maybe they've figured out the secret! That's right, everyone is leaving in droves because their wonderful policies just made the place so utterly sublime that people just can't handle it.

Meanwhile, back in the real world, the rest of us wonder why the place looks like Raccoon City after the outbreak...
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 11:39:02 AM
Quote from: acme54321 on July 07, 2010, 11:19:55 AM
That's exactly what I figured.  Just saying maybe this 18k figure he is throwing out includes those two areas.

no...the 18,000 quoted is just the core...all of downtown (including Southbank, LaVilla, etc.) is about 56,000
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 11:39:46 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 11:37:48 AM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 11:17:44 AM
Tufsu, nobody cares about City workers, they have their own parking and so they aren't relevant to this debate.

really...where do the employees in City Hall, the annex, the courthouse, and the Ed Ball building park?

Are you kidding?

Either A: On the moon, or B: In the City-owned parking lots and garages that are located at each of those structures.

I'll let you guess which one. They are a non-issue, they have their own parking.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 11:40:57 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 11:36:34 AM
well I just looked at the socioeconomic data used in the recent 2035 LRTP Update...as part of that study, the travel demand model was validated/calibrated to the year 2005.

Employment data was obtained from the State of Florida and business data groups....using the downtown core boundaries of the river, Jefferson St, Union St, and Market St, there were just under 20,000 employees in 2005....keep in mind that this does not include the 3000+ employees at the Sheriff's office and the jail.

So, logic tells me that the DVI/JEDC estimate of 18,000 is far closer to being correct than the 6,000

Nope.

And by your own admission, that data you're citing is at least 6 years old. As I suspected...
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 11:42:32 AM
ok...so they park in the nearby garages...they are still open to the public and are included in the parking totals provided by DVI.

And, btw, most city employees pay to park (just like the rest of us)....so they also might be very ineterested in free on-street parking
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 11:43:34 AM
never mind...obviously Stephen and Chris are right.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: fsujax on July 07, 2010, 11:53:29 AM
I didnt realize Modis and St Joe had already cleared out.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: fsujax on July 07, 2010, 11:54:28 AM
Commuter Rail to the rescue!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: finehoe on July 07, 2010, 12:15:10 PM
Quote from: fsujax on July 07, 2010, 11:54:28 AM
Commuter Rail to the rescue!

What will they be commuting to?  Sounds like in a few more years there won't be any jobs downtown outside of the public sector.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: vicupstate on July 07, 2010, 12:33:25 PM
It seems hard to believe that 38,000 people(56k-18k) work in the Southbank, Lavilla, and Brooklyn but only 6,000 work on the Northbank.  LaVilla can't be more than 1,000, it that.  Obviously if the 18,000 figure is inflated/exagerated wouldn't the 38,000 figure be too?  Could it be that the entire DT is only 30k or so? 
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: dganson on July 07, 2010, 12:40:52 PM
I do not know the number of people downtown...but in our building The ATT tower there are 1650 currently and it is quite fluid. When you add minimal realistic numbers for CSX, Wachovia, City Hall Annex, Ed Ball, BBT, BOA, The Landing and Modis you have to exceed 6000. Add in Police Memorial,  Fed Courthouse and County Courthouse as well as Maxwellhouse there are easily more than 6000 on Northbank. And that does not include small shops all around downtown
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: jacksonvilleconfidential on July 07, 2010, 12:42:10 PM
Has anyone ever actually seen people coming or going from Maxwell house? I think there's oompa loompas working there, do they count?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: JC on July 07, 2010, 12:45:46 PM
Quote from: jacksonvilleconfidential on July 07, 2010, 12:42:10 PM
Has anyone ever actually seen people coming or going from Maxwell house? I think there's oompa loompas working there, do they count?

I actually did some remodel work before the Super Bowl and there werent too many people then.  I think their shifts are a little weird too!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 01:04:18 PM
Quote from: dganson on July 07, 2010, 12:40:52 PM
I do not know the number of people downtown...but in our building The ATT tower there are 1650 currently and it is quite fluid. When you add minimal realistic numbers for CSX, Wachovia, City Hall Annex, Ed Ball, BBT, BOA, The Landing and Modis you have to exceed 6000. Add in Police Memorial,  Fed Courthouse and County Courthouse as well as Maxwellhouse there are easily more than 6000 on Northbank. And that does not include small shops all around downtown

Actually when you do the math, that's pretty pathetic...

That's a 32-story building with a MILLION leasable sqaure feet. Taking your 1,650 number, that's a whopping 51 people per floor, or 51 people per 19,608 square feet. That means that if you spread all the employees out at relatively equal distances, each and every employee would individually have more room than the average apartment home. Seems like a fantastic use of (allegedly) class-A office space to me!

Come on people, if this doesn't illustrate just how bad things are down there, I don't know what would.

The only thing sadder than that is the fact that this building actually has one of the LOWER vacancy rates. *Sigh*
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 01:08:51 PM
Oh, one more factoid to drive the point home, the AT&T tower isn't Jacksonville's tallest, but it is the largest in terms of leasable square footage, which is the only thing that counts for the purposes of this debate. So our largest leasable building has a whopping 1,650 people in it, and you guys are still finding it hard to believe that there are 6,000 workers in the core? Come on, quit drinking the koolaid folks...
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 01:16:53 PM
Yeah that and the 550 Water building are the "spillover" spaces for their H.Q.

CSX has bought out a bunch of other companies since their headquarters was originally constructed, and they needed extra space. Rather than adding on, they decided to lease additional space in those two adjacent buildings. The only reason it really works for them is that they have their own employee parking. If they had to put up with the same crap as other businesses, they'd probably already have pulled out.

There were plans to expand their H.Q. to consolidate everything, but then they got a new CEO who wanted to move everything up to Virginia and the plans got scrapped. But since then, they've had another management change and brought everything back to Jacksonville. So I wouldn't be surprised if they eventually get around to adding on, at which point the AT&T tower will lose that tenant.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 01:21:39 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 11:42:32 AM
most city employees pay to park

No they don't. They get parking access cards that open the employee gates at the City-owned garages.

Even my friend who just did a legal internship at the GC's office for a summer got a City parking card that allowed him to use the City garage, and that was just a silly unpaid internship. COJ doesn't make itself pay to park in its own garages, so no, COJ itself should not be included in the total for the purposes of this discussion, since they have their own parking and don't have to use meters.

And while the City garages as a whole structure may be partially open to the public, whole swaths of them are blocked off and reserved for COJ's needs. They may have some spaces open to the public, but much of it is reserved for COJ.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: fsujax on July 07, 2010, 01:58:46 PM
some floors in those buildings are mechanical floors....every tower has them. So not all floors are leaseable. This is a very sad discussion and just shows how far our Downtown has fallen....neglected by our elected officials, sure we got fancy public venues, but where the heck is the civic pride from companies! So many lost opportunities. Deutsche Bank just to name one! I do not understand how or why the City can't convince some of these guys to locate Downtown. It seems to me someone isnt doing their job properly. How are we supposed to sell commuter rail to FTA? build it and they will come?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 02:22:57 PM
Quote from: stephendare on July 07, 2010, 11:44:15 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 11:36:34 AM
well I just looked at the socioeconomic data used in the recent 2035 LRTP Update...as part of that study, the travel demand model was validated/calibrated to the year 2005.

Employment data was obtained from the State of Florida and business data groups....using the downtown core boundaries of the river, Jefferson St, Union St, and Market St, there were just under 20,000 employees in 2005....keep in mind that this does not include the 3000+ employees at the Sheriff's office and the jail.

So, logic tells me that the DVI/JEDC estimate of 18,000 is far closer to being correct than the 6,000
By 'just under', do you mean 18,000?

nope...it means 19,897 to be exact

I also noticed you did some calcs on the Modis building...with 70 people per floor, this would equal 2450 total for 35 stories...that is pretty sparse but let's assume its even worse because only 50% of the floors are occupied....that still equals 1225 employees

Add another 1450 for the BOA Tower (same assumptions)...plus 1700 at A&T + 500 at Life of the South (as Chris has reported)....total of almost 5,000 in just 4 buildings!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 07, 2010, 03:04:19 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 02:22:57 PM
Quote from: stephendare on July 07, 2010, 11:44:15 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 11:36:34 AM
well I just looked at the socioeconomic data used in the recent 2035 LRTP Update...as part of that study, the travel demand model was validated/calibrated to the year 2005.

Employment data was obtained from the State of Florida and business data groups....using the downtown core boundaries of the river, Jefferson St, Union St, and Market St, there were just under 20,000 employees in 2005....keep in mind that this does not include the 3000+ employees at the Sheriff's office and the jail.

So, logic tells me that the DVI/JEDC estimate of 18,000 is far closer to being correct than the 6,000
By 'just under', do you mean 18,000?

nope...it means 19,897 to be exact

I also noticed you did some calcs on the Modis building...with 70 people per floor, this would equal 2450 total for 35 stories...that is pretty sparse but let's assume its even worse because only 50% of the floors are occupied....that still equals 1225 employees

Add another 1450 for the BOA Tower (same assumptions)...plus 1700 at A&T + 500 at Life of the South (as Chris has reported)....total of almost 5,000 in just 4 buildings!

You missed the gist of my Life of the South comments, Tufsu, since the whole point of mentioning them is that they're pulling out. And so is Modis. So I'm not sure why you're including them in your math, since the only point of bringing them up in the first place is that they're leaving. Between the two of them, that's almost 1,000 people gone right there...

And it's 1650 at AT&T, which worked out to 51 employees per leasable floor. I was never including the equipment floors to begin with, so to whoever said that, I know that's an easy mistake to make but it wasn't made here. 51 employees per 20k square feet, and I was talking leasable square feet. That ratio is tragic.

I think based on what we  have here, it's looking like probably 1,000'ish for Independent Life, 1,300 for the Barnett Bldg., 1,650 for AT&T, another 500'ish for CSX, maybe 400-500 in the BB&T bldg., the SunTrust (formerly Humana) building is almost completely vacant, as is the Wachovia (former First Union) building. I'll take a stab in the dark and say 500 people between the two, although I think that's grossly high. Add in another few hundred people who work in the small shops at the landing, and in other spots around the core, maybe another 1,000 total, and you're still under 6,000 in the core in aggregate.

And again, there is no point in including the City in this since they have their own parking. Actually so does CSX and everyone in the BB&T building, so we probably shouldn't be including them in these calculations to be honest. I didn't include the Blackstone building, the Law Exchange building, or any other building that has its own dedicated parking either, since none of those people would be using metered spaces anyway.

But I can easily see the total amount of private workers in the core as being 6,000 or less. These huge towers everywhere have high vacancy rates, and it's a virtual ghost town even on the floors that are occupied. There just aren't that many people down there. Why do you think even the paid parking businesses are in the dumps? Look how many closed pay lots we have around here, not to mention how many metered spaces where the only thing that parks in them is tumbleweeds.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: CS Foltz on July 07, 2010, 03:30:04 PM
Once again I would have to ask..........whats wrong with that picture? All of the metered parking in the world won't be used if there is no one to use it! City Hall just doesn't see this evidently! Workers can not sustain downtown by themselves and with a lack of rentable housing space, that is affordable, there is nothing to attract even persons who would like to live in emptiness with no services! The current administration has no plan, other then spending money they don't have and the new courthouse is something that only lawyers and the like will be using, so how is this going to energize downtown?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Lunican on July 07, 2010, 03:31:21 PM
There are completely empty floors in AT&T, I'm just not sure how many.

(http://photos.metrojacksonville.com/photos/499524630_zT5nN-M.jpg)
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 04:29:54 PM
If all of the buildings downtown are so empty, why is the vacancy rate less than 25 percent?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: finehoe on July 07, 2010, 04:48:57 PM
QuoteThere are completely empty floors in AT&T, I'm just not sure how many.

How wasteful to leave the lights on in them.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: finehoe on July 07, 2010, 05:31:01 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 04:29:54 PM
If all of the buildings downtown are so empty, why is the vacancy rate less than 25 percent?

The vacancy rate measures how much space is leased, not how many people occupy that space.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: BridgeTroll on July 07, 2010, 05:36:51 PM
Artwalk tonight... plenty of parking... :)
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: JC on July 07, 2010, 05:37:38 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 07, 2010, 05:36:51 PM
Artwalk tonight... plenty of parking... :)

What time is art walk?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: BridgeTroll on July 07, 2010, 05:38:56 PM
Now until 9 officially... unofficially the festivities last much longer... :)
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: fsujax on July 07, 2010, 06:11:27 PM
All on street parking is free metered or not!!!!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 08:34:49 PM
I wonder if anyone will show up tonight...or if downtown will be dead still  :)
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Ocklawaha on July 07, 2010, 10:33:05 PM
Quote from: fsujax on July 07, 2010, 01:58:46 PM
some floors in those buildings are mechanical floors....every tower has them. So not all floors are leaseable. This is a very sad discussion and just shows how far our Downtown has fallen....neglected by our elected officials, sure we got fancy public venues, but where the heck is the civic pride from companies! So many lost opportunities. Deutsche Bank just to name one! I do not understand how or why the City can't convince some of these guys to locate Downtown. It seems to me someone isnt doing their job properly. How are we supposed to sell commuter rail to FTA? build it and they will come?

(http://activerain.com/image_store/uploads/9/8/2/7/5/ar126227537957289.jpg)
Union Station REBIRTH in Washington DC exactly because it is the crossroads of a city.

(https://qqnulq.blu.livefilestore.com/y1modNQwA6a0dyYzI_gOBRnvV_ehgDru3WlLrYZjyB2bItbPfA5PV9-yNRBzQHuquvUpKLUEBpAyQT0z5A4xIGaZHdHxAa8dJGMTj-nLNUqrYRpPuRU0bE4nWxe7vKvDs3uKj-OnuH0Bo4/Union%20Station.jpg)
"JACKSONVILLE TERMINAL," wouldn't this beat the hell out of the empty "Prime Osbourne?"

(http://photos.igougo.com/images/p72184-Washington-Union_Station_Food_Court.jpg)
Here is a scene of the Tunnels under Washington Union Station today!

(http://www.metrojacksonville.com/photos/thumbs/lrg-3408-dsc_0004.JPG)
This is a photo of the Tunnels under Jacksonville Union Station today! ...and questions?

I think this is easy FSUJAX. STREETCAR will create infill development, we've proved that over and over and over all across the USA, and Jacksonville will be no different. That said, Commuter Rail will tie all of the far flung community together and uniquely lucky for us, (unlike Tampa, Orlando, West Palm, or Miami) Every major road and railroad crosses the river DOWNTOWN, just outside of our future Jacksonville Terminal, Amtrak-Commuter Rail Station. So even if every last office leaves downtown, the streetcar infill will provide a boom of retail, restaurant, attraction, hospitality and housing spaces we haven't seen since 1932.  The guy living in the Westside, and working at the Avenues will be rolling through downtown on the Commuter Rail, further boosting the retail, restaurant trades downtown and exposing the attractions and hospitality to thousands of new customers through word of mouth.


OCKLAWAHA
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 11:03:52 PM
but Ock....I've learned today that government employees don't count...what would Union Station and the rest of downtown DC be without them?  ;)
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: cityimrov on July 07, 2010, 11:10:08 PM
Anyone know why the federal agencies are deciding against downtown?  The FBI, FDIC, etc.  State agencies aren't in downtown either.  Not even Citizens.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Timkin on July 07, 2010, 11:16:55 PM
I have a question..  Why did these tunnels get filled in? ... Were they ever used?  Do you think they ever would be used ?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: gridsketch on July 07, 2010, 11:20:43 PM
Quote"JACKSONVILLE TERMINAL," wouldn't this beat the hell out of the empty "Prime Osbourne?"

Here is a scene of the Tunnels under Washington Union Station today!

This is a photo of the Tunnels under Jacksonville Union Station today! ...and questions?

I think this is easy FSUJAX. STREETCAR will create infill development, we've proved that over and over and over all across the USA, and Jacksonville will be no different. That said, Commuter Rail will tie all of the far flung community together and uniquely lucky for us, (unlike Tampa, Orlando, West Palm, or Miami) Every major road and railroad crosses the river DOWNTOWN, just outside of our future Jacksonville Terminal, Amtrak-Commuter Rail Station. So even if every last office leaves downtown, the streetcar infill will provide a boom of retail, restaurant, attraction, hospitality and housing spaces we haven't seen since 1932.  The guy living in the Westside, and working at the Avenues will be rolling through downtown on the Commuter Rail, further boosting the retail, restaurant trades downtown and exposing the attractions and hospitality to thousands of new customers through word of mouth.

OCKLAWAHA mentions some of my favorite things: mass transit for Jacksonville and Washington DC. A few difficulties to work out though. Union Station in DC has rail lines from Amtrak (National), VRE (Virginia), MARC (Maryland), and Metro (DC) which feeds it people. Jacksonville has nowhere near the density or connectivity of DC. Also Union station has better bones than Prime Osborne Convention Center. Union Station takes Regional commuters (MARC and VRE) and diffuses them to urban commuters by way of subway, taxi, and foot. How would you imagine streetcar working in downtown as part of an integrated system (a sincere question). Similar comparative analysis could be made with Penn Station in NYC.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: finehoe on July 07, 2010, 11:29:28 PM
Quote from: cityimrov on July 07, 2010, 11:10:08 PM
Anyone know why the federal agencies are deciding against downtown?  The FBI, FDIC, etc.  State agencies aren't in downtown either.  Not even Citizens.

"Security".  Supposedly its easier for a terrorist to get you in an urban environment.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Ocklawaha on July 07, 2010, 11:52:15 PM
Quote from: gridsketch on July 07, 2010, 11:20:43 PM
OCKLAWAHA mentions some of my favorite things: mass transit for Jacksonville and Washington DC. A few difficulties to work out though. Union Station in DC has rail lines from Amtrak (National), VRE (Virginia), MARC (Maryland), and Metro (DC) which feeds it people. Jacksonville has nowhere near the density or connectivity of DC. Also Union station has better bones than Prime Osborne Convention Center. Union Station takes Regional commuters (MARC and VRE) and diffuses them to urban commuters by way of subway, taxi, and foot. How would you imagine streetcar working in downtown as part of an integrated system (a sincere question). Similar comparative analysis could be made with Penn Station in NYC.

Naturally we are not nearly as big as the DC metropolitan area, but that in no way should deter us from raising our quality of life through fast, frequent, convenient, mass transit and intercity surface modes.

We have Amtrak, which will be doubling it's service to Jacksonville shortly with more on the planning boards. Moreover each Amtrak train will be splitting or consolidating here just like the old days. Bottom line? 10 Years and we sit in the top 10-20 Amtrak stations in numbers of trains served daily.

Jacksonville has amazing density all along the historic railroad and streetcar corridors, anyone who really looks at those zones cannot deny it. Certainly one could take the 840 +/- square miles and do simple math and come up with a ridiculous low density, but that wouldn't be accurate in our corridors.

As for better bones then Jacksonville? Opinion? Maybe. Our station is likewise connected to the Skyway - Monorail, and will have BRT, Intercity Bus, City Bus, Streetcar, Commuter Rail and Amtrak... Not bad for a town with a fraction of the metro-population of the NEC. Ours is also the largest railroad station South of Washington DC, and with the Prime gone, we've got lots of space to play with. Remember that with 32 original tracks our station was once the busiest in the entire world (Florida Boom of the 1920's), and for years it fielded 250 trains a day flawlessly.

As for streetcar, let's just say it's coming, and coming FAST. The first line will link Jacksonville Terminal with Riverside, 5-Points, Brooklyn, and with downtown along Water and Newnan Streets. The Skyway uses different lines and the BRT will use still more varied routes, so in the end game, every couple of blocks will put the future Jacksonville citizen at the door of Mass Transit... I'm not even sure NYC can do that!

Last and certainly not least, ALL ROADS pass through downtown, thanks to our river so in theory even if the urban core became a ghost town or city park, the area of Jacksonville Terminal would still see some of the heaviest traffic via RAIL - AUTO - BUS - MONORAIL in North Florida.



OCKLAWAHA
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Jerry Moran on July 08, 2010, 12:01:11 AM
QuoteAnyone know why the federal agencies are deciding against downtown?  The FBI, FDIC, etc.  State agencies aren't in downtown either.  Not even Citizens.

Didn't I read in a previous posting that government agencies are obligated to consider downtown locations over suburban areas?  Can anyone elaborate on this?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 01:13:26 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 04:29:54 PM
If all of the buildings downtown are so empty, why is the vacancy rate less than 25 percent?

Vacancy rates are much higher than 25%.

This is the same as the myth of the 51,000 workers downtown. Nobody is in a hurry to acknowledge the true sad state of affairs with regard to the utter death of our urban core and the insane vacancy rates because it would just create a cycle of scaring off prospective new occupants.

You already got called out for citing to 6yr+ old data in this debate, but I honestly can't fault you for it, since the sad truth is that you're actually quoting one of the newer figures available. Not that it being *only* the better part of a decade old makes it any less inaccurate, but the probalem is that nobody's in a hurry to acknowledge (much less publish) any of this stuff, which makes it hard to find accurate information.

The landlords aren't in a hurry to help, since if they happen to mention half their building is empty, it's not going to make the lease negotiations go particularly well for them. DVI and COJ, as the architects of this disaster, have a vested interest in minimizing the appearance of the damage. Nobody involved has any real interest in making the true state of affairs known, and you have to acknowledge and plan around that when addressing this issue.

Anyone with a pair of eyes can see how bad off things are down there. There are a grand total of like 6 non-homeless pedestrians at any given time of day, there isn't much traffic except for State and Union (and those people are only using the Regency/Arlington connector to 95, they aren't there for downtown), and every building is either completely empty, or a lot of it is empty with big "Available" or "For Lease" signs in front. It seriously looks like Raccoon City after the outbreak....

And our wonderful city government is more worried about handing out parking tickets to the handful of people who still bother to go down there, than with fixing any of the problems. Yeah, that's a solution for sure!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: braeburn on July 08, 2010, 02:45:02 AM
The vacancy rate is definitely NOT less than 25%. When I walk through downtown during the week after 6 or 7 PM it is a dead zone. It is very much akin to the "rapture" occurring... but I got left behind! Even during the day there is a sense of "emptiness" echoing through this graveyard of buildings.

I am surprised to see people posting in this thread acting as if there is nothing wrong with this city and seem to prefer the status quo. Well! It is time to drop our shorts and whip out the rulers and make an honest assessment of what really is happening to our fair city. :)

Although, perhaps I am confusing blind optimism with being jaded...

If I did not have Springfield, Riverside/Avondale and San Marco to go to, I would be just as lost as the city itself. Either that or go completely bonkers! Or both. :)
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 08:07:59 AM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 01:13:26 AM

You already got called out for citing to 6yr+ old data in this debate, but I honestly can't fault you for it, since the sad truth is that you're actually quoting one of the newer figures available.

correct...the detailed data (down to address level) used to validate the model for the LRTP was from 2005.  Having moved to downtown in early 2006 (watching it change first hand), it just doesn't seem plausible that the workforce in the core has dropped from 20,000 to 6,000.....

But then you "moved the bar" by not counting the 6,000 public employees downtown, so maybe you're really saying there are 12,000 workers in the downtown core.

Either way, I'm trying to get information on real numbers for 2009/2010 and should have something by tomorrow.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Jaxson on July 08, 2010, 08:36:17 AM
Quote from: Ocklawaha on July 07, 2010, 10:33:05 PM
Quote from: fsujax on July 07, 2010, 01:58:46 PM
some floors in those buildings are mechanical floors....every tower has them. So not all floors are leaseable. This is a very sad discussion and just shows how far our Downtown has fallen....neglected by our elected officials, sure we got fancy public venues, but where the heck is the civic pride from companies! So many lost opportunities. Deutsche Bank just to name one! I do not understand how or why the City can't convince some of these guys to locate Downtown. It seems to me someone isnt doing their job properly. How are we supposed to sell commuter rail to FTA? build it and they will come?

(http://activerain.com/image_store/uploads/9/8/2/7/5/ar126227537957289.jpg)
Union Station REBIRTH in Washington DC exactly because it is the crossroads of a city.

(https://qqnulq.blu.livefilestore.com/y1modNQwA6a0dyYzI_gOBRnvV_ehgDru3WlLrYZjyB2bItbPfA5PV9-yNRBzQHuquvUpKLUEBpAyQT0z5A4xIGaZHdHxAa8dJGMTj-nLNUqrYRpPuRU0bE4nWxe7vKvDs3uKj-OnuH0Bo4/Union%20Station.jpg)
"JACKSONVILLE TERMINAL," wouldn't this beat the hell out of the empty "Prime Osbourne?"

(http://photos.igougo.com/images/p72184-Washington-Union_Station_Food_Court.jpg)
Here is a scene of the Tunnels under Washington Union Station today!

(http://www.metrojacksonville.com/photos/thumbs/lrg-3408-dsc_0004.JPG)
This is a photo of the Tunnels under Jacksonville Union Station today! ...and questions?

I think this is easy FSUJAX. STREETCAR will create infill development, we've proved that over and over and over all across the USA, and Jacksonville will be no different. That said, Commuter Rail will tie all of the far flung community together and uniquely lucky for us, (unlike Tampa, Orlando, West Palm, or Miami) Every major road and railroad crosses the river DOWNTOWN, just outside of our future Jacksonville Terminal, Amtrak-Commuter Rail Station. So even if every last office leaves downtown, the streetcar infill will provide a boom of retail, restaurant, attraction, hospitality and housing spaces we haven't seen since 1932.  The guy living in the Westside, and working at the Avenues will be rolling through downtown on the Commuter Rail, further boosting the retail, restaurant trades downtown and exposing the attractions and hospitality to thousands of new customers through word of mouth.


OCKLAWAHA

Washington's Union Station is a very inspiring place, indeed.  I like to travel by train and I always enjoy it when I have an extended layover in the nation's capital.  Not only is there an abundance of retail and dining, the station is located where I can roam around the city and play tourist.  During one train stop, I wandered into the Supreme Court building to observe the justices announce a ruling.  Another time I was in town, I got to see a motorcade carrying Chile's president from the Capitol. 

I have repeatedly complained about how terrible our current Amtrak station is.  I feel like I have been beating my head against a wall because it seems that nobody (outside of Ock and me) actually want to have a thriving passenger rail station that could help us bring some life to downtown Jacksonville.  It would be nice to find a city leader who actually gave a crap.  Well, I will have to dream on...

Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 08:40:28 AM
Quote from: stephendare on July 08, 2010, 08:18:09 AM
sorry, wait a minute, tufsu.  Sadly you have made too many exploded claims in regard to this issue, and Im afraid it would be irresponsible to simply accept this latest claim that there are 6000 city employees located in the northbank of downtown.

I didn't say 6000 city employees....I sad 6000 public employees....remember there are state employees downtown...and how many people do you surmise work in the federal courthouse building?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: JC on July 08, 2010, 09:19:23 AM
Quote from: Jaxson on July 08, 2010, 08:36:17 AM
Washington's Union Station is a very inspiring place, indeed.  I like to travel by train and I always enjoy it when I have an extended layover in the nation's capital.  Not only is there an abundance of retail and dining, the station is located where I can roam around the city and play tourist.  During one train stop, I wandered into the Supreme Court building to observe the justices announce a ruling.  Another time I was in town, I got to see a motorcade carrying Chile's president from the Capitol. 

I have repeatedly complained about how terrible our current Amtrak station is.  I feel like I have been beating my head against a wall because it seems that nobody (outside of Ock and me) actually want to have a thriving passenger rail station that could help us bring some life to downtown Jacksonville.  It would be nice to find a city leader who actually gave a crap.  Well, I will have to dream on...

Union station is pretty awesome.  But really my favorite part of DC Metro is the Rosslyn Station escalator!  Its like 4 or 5 stories high and is continuous!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 10:12:58 AM
Quote from: stephendare on July 08, 2010, 08:51:53 AM
I usually refrain from surmising in the lack of empirical data, tufsu.  You should try that sometime.

perhaps we can refrain from the insults...at least until the newest empirical data is in
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: 02roadking on July 08, 2010, 11:03:32 AM
FYI. All my COJ friends say that they DO PAY for their own parking DT. At least the rank & file folks.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: fieldafm on July 08, 2010, 11:08:41 AM
Yeah, most COJ people pay to park.

The summer interns have a free parking plan, but its not guaranteed parking... I believe they get free access to overflow parking in a particular lot.

I heard Stephen mention a 6k figure once, and I couldnt believe it either.  If I ever get free time this week I want to explore those figures more.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 11:21:46 AM
Well there isn't a lot of data, unfortunately. And what is published is woefully out-of-date. So I don't see much sense in using 6-year old figures, when much of the commercial desertion has occurred in that very same intervening time period. Scads of employers have pulled out in the past 6 years, including some real biggies like Humana, who sold their tower and left because of parking.

And more are splitting right now, even as we speak, like Modis and Life of the South, for the very same reasons. I am not sure why some people want to defend the current parking policies, as there is simply that nothing that makes sense about them, and those policies are literally strangling the core. I guess maybe we will just have to wait for the updated stats to get an exact body/damage count. But I don't think it's anywhere near 18,000, and anyone with a working set of eyes who's ever been downtown already knows that.

But one thing I do find helpful is doing commercial property searches on the internet, and looking at the asking prices for things in the downtown areas of Jacksonville. The going rates for everything ranging from smallish offices to huge 20-story skyscrapers seem to indicate that the "smart money" has a far less-than-optimistic outlook for our urban core. People lie all the time, but the market as a whole rarely does.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 11:27:08 AM
well since the market doesn't lie, try this data...

"Jacksonville’s office vacancy rates remain in the 20 percent range, says Cushman & Wakefield. As of June, office space downtown was 22.5 percent vacant, led by 26.1 percent on the Northbank. Suburban office vacancy was 23.4 percent, as was the vacancy in the largest market, Butler/Baymeadows"

http://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/citynotes.php?id=531360
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 11:34:16 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 11:27:08 AM
well since the market doesn't lie, try this data...

"Jacksonville’s office vacancy rates remain in the 20 percent range, says Cushman & Wakefield. As of June, office space downtown was 22.5 percent vacant, led by 26.1 percent on the Northbank. Suburban office vacancy was 23.4 percent, as was the vacancy in the largest market, Butler/Baymeadows"

http://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/citynotes.php?id=531360

They're a landlord, just like I already said in one of my earlier posts, of course the landlords are going to cook up skewed stats, since otherwise they'd be undermining their own negotiating position when they're trying to sign tenants. "Oh yeah, we have 1,000 vacant buildings down in that $h!thole, take your pick...soon...PLEASE!!!!" isn't the best posture.

And that doesn't account for the real problem here, which is lack of workers. When you have 50 people or less occupying a 20k square foot floor of an allegedly class-A skyscraper because the tenant has all but pulled out and is just waiting for the lease to expire, that won't be counted towards the vacancy rates, but still clearly indicates a dead or dying urban environment.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Fallen Buckeye on July 08, 2010, 11:41:22 AM
No matter the exact numbers, the downtown workforce is at unsatisfactory level. I'm more interested in projects and policies that will spur smart growth in the core. I like the idea having a compact grand terminal at Prime Osbourne and I would be all in favor of relocating the convention to the present courthouse site.

Here's some other thoughts about how other projects might contribute to a revitalized DT:
-Honestly, I don't see the Met Park improvements as very beneficial to DT because it's so isolated.
-At Friendship Park I would like to see the fountain fixed and possibly some modest improvements to that area, but I don't see it as high priority. I would rather see this project scaled down to invest the money elsewhere.
-Adding streetcar connecting DT to adjacent neighborhoods would be a great investment and I hope that streetcar line Ocklawaha mentioned comes to fruition as quickly as possible.
-I would love to see the Shipyards property converted into temporary parkspace so that the property is at least contributing to the quality of life DT until it can be developed. This would also be a great chance to expand the Riverwalk towards the stadium. I wouldn't build any permanent structures on the site that could impede future development. Just a large green that could be used in a way similar to how the green on memorial park is used. Maybe there could be a fishing pier or something too.

Also, is there any kind of dedicated fund/organization to aid small business start-ups in DT?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 01:03:09 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 11:34:16 AM
They're a landlord, just like I already said in one of my earlier posts, of course the landlords are going to cook up skewed stats, since otherwise they'd be undermining their own negotiating position when they're trying to sign tenants.

sorry, but Cushman & Wakefield is not a landlord...they are the premier commercial real estate services firm in the country (if not the world).

http://www.cushwake.com/cwglobal/jsp/globalHomeSSO.jsp
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: JC on July 08, 2010, 01:04:29 PM
Quote from: JC on July 06, 2010, 10:27:26 AM
People need to live and work downtown!  Jacksonville should create and fund a limited program for say 1000 people to subsidize their rent based on a sliding scale.  People who are willing to live downtown will use the services and patronize the business in the city limits.  This can be a coalition funded by business groups, charity organizations and city government. 

Lets say this were done for 1000 people and the median income were around 40,000 you are talking $40,000,000 of which a large portion would be spent on downtown business and entertainment.  The more people that live downtown the more people that will want to visit and live because right now its a pretty damn depressing and sometimes scary place to visit!

A brief note on parking.

Yesterday my wife and I got a 25.00 ticket at Jax Beach for parking too close to a stop sign even though there was more than a car length between us and the stop sign (30' is the minimum so make sure you bring your tape measure because the dam curbs aren't painted!)

We wanted to but didn't go to Treaty Oak Park because there is no clear parking!

We had to illegally park at RCBC/Mosh parking to walk across the Main St Bridge, where we discussed Zombieland rules because of our fellow bridge walkers. 

We then ate dinner at Outback because we were worried about getting another ticket, only this time downtown!


Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: fieldafm on July 08, 2010, 01:08:05 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 01:03:09 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 11:34:16 AM
They're a landlord, just like I already said in one of my earlier posts, of course the landlords are going to cook up skewed stats, since otherwise they'd be undermining their own negotiating position when they're trying to sign tenants.

sorry, but Cushman & Wakefield is not a landlord...they are the premier commercial real estate services firm in the country (if not the world).

http://www.cushwake.com/cwglobal/jsp/globalHomeSSO.jsp

Yeah, Cushman and Wakefield are THE source for commercial real estate.  You're both right... occupancy rates by themselves don't show you the entire picture.  I'm trying to get a hold of the actual report, as there is a breakdown of those numbers on some of their detailed matrices... just swamped right now
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 01:16:12 PM
I checked field...their website only lists the 2010 1st quarter report....on it, Jax. vacancy is listed as follows:

CBD - 21.6%
Non-CBD - 22.9%
Total - 22.5%

The CBD is then broken up by northbank (25.3%) and southbank (12.4%)...non-CBD areas are also broken up by subareas...note that the metro report includes Clay, St. Johns, and Nassau Counties.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 01:27:14 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 01:03:09 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 11:34:16 AM
They're a landlord, just like I already said in one of my earlier posts, of course the landlords are going to cook up skewed stats, since otherwise they'd be undermining their own negotiating position when they're trying to sign tenants.

sorry, but Cushman & Wakefield is not a landlord...they are the premier commercial real estate services firm in the country (if not the world).

http://www.cushwake.com/cwglobal/jsp/globalHomeSSO.jsp

I am well aware of what Cushman & Wakefield is...are you?

Do they not lease and manage properties? How exactly doesn't that make them a landlord?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 01:40:17 PM
No, Tufsu, you're clearly right as always...

Doesn't look like C&W is a landlord at all, does it? And certainly not in the Downtown Northbank. Yup, you're right again.

Oh wait, what's this....

http://looplink.loopnet.com/16094156/cushwakenational (http://looplink.loopnet.com/16094156/cushwakenational)

And since you quoted them as declaring that their vacancy rates in the core were less than 20%, isn't it quite interesting that they're trying to lease out a skyscraper with 100,000 total leasable square feet, and their listing clearly indicates that 90,129 square feet of that same building are vacant and immediately available?

Maybe my calculator is broken, but that adds up to a lot more than 20% doesn't it? Isn't that actually a 90% vacancy rate? Hmm... And you're really going to argue with me when I say that these landlords skew their statistics to improve their position when negotiating leases? The proof's in the pudding on this one, wouldn't you say?

So you tell me again, whether you really believe that 20% figure you just cited to...

Did you mean to type "90%" instead of "20%" by chance?

This building is another example of what the true condition of the core is. 90% vacancy. Nice.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Captain Zissou on July 08, 2010, 02:14:22 PM
Chris, they're a commercial brokerage as well as a real estate services firm.  They are very similar to CB Richard Ellis, Marcus & Millichap, or Grubb-Ellis.  Each one of these firms has armies of analysts that crank out these statistics that the brokers use to pitch a client one way or another.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 02:22:25 PM
Quote from: Captain Zissou on July 08, 2010, 02:14:22 PM
Chris, they're a commercial brokerage as well as a real estate services firm.  They are very similar to CB Richard Ellis, Marcus & Millichap, or Grubb-Ellis.  Each one of these firms has armies of analysts that crank out these statistics that the brokers use to pitch a client one way or another.

I know that. That was my point to Tufsu all along...

The problem is that Tufsu is citing to a statistic published by this organization that claims their vacancy rates are 20%, and he's treating this as gospel, when a look at their available listings clearly shows their actual vacancy rate is roughly 90%.

Also, I'm not sure if we're losing each other with symantics here, but in commercial property the manager is the landlord. The actual owners are generally consortiums of investors, and the tenant never deals with that. The actual lessor/landlord is in fact C&W for Atlantic Place. The ownership structure is irrelevant, it's C&W (or some company like it) who is the actual landlord responsible for marketing, managing, and leasing the space.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 02:27:37 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 01:16:12 PM
I checked field...their website only lists the 2010 1st quarter report....on it, Jax. vacancy is listed as follows:

CBD - 21.6%
Non-CBD - 22.9%
Total - 22.5%

The CBD is then broken up by northbank (25.3%) and southbank (12.4%)...non-CBD areas are also broken up by subareas...note that the metro report includes Clay, St. Johns, and Nassau Counties.

This is super-interesting, Tufsu!

Since Atlantic Place appears to be their biggest space under management on the Northbank, and since we just determined that tower is presently running at a whopping 90% vacancy rate according to their own listing sheet, I have such an astounding level of confidence in that 25% figure...
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 02:28:27 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 02:22:25 PM

The problem is that Tufsu is citing to a statistic published by this organization that claims their vacancy rates are 20%, and he's treating this as gospel, when a look at their available listings clearly shows their actual vacancy rate is roughly 90%.

dude...their analysis reports overall office vacancy rates in the CBD at 22%....what the vacancy rates of one or more of the properties they are marketing is only part of the bigger picture.

btw...here's what I said previously...

"If all of the buildings downtown are so empty, why is the vacancy rate less than 25 percent?"

now it turns out that the northbank vanacy rate (which I had not seen broken out until today) is just over 25%...so yes, I guess I was way off  ;)
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Captain Zissou on July 08, 2010, 02:29:56 PM
^ I agree with you that this isn't gospel.  The statistic is generated to serve some end.  To sell investors on 'Value-Add Potential', or to justify  a higher rental rate in a different part of town.  I worked for one of the brokerages as an analyst, and I'm familiar with how these numbers are generated.  
If it says 20%, I'm sure its very close to true, but not exact.  I don't do this often, but in tufsu's defense, you are only showing 1 building with a 90% vacancy rate.  I'm sure there is another with 4% vacancy, and another with 35%, and another with 8%.

As for the landlord mess, it varies from property to property.  Often times the property owner is responsible for keeping the rent roll full, the broker just lists it.  However, the larger the property, the more likely there is for a 3rd party property manager, which could definitely be Cushman.  

However, at 90,000 sf, they're not called 'Landlords', they're called 'property managers'.  It makes no difference, but I wouldn't want tufsu to get in a huff over the difference.  
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 02:33:39 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 02:28:27 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 02:22:25 PM

The problem is that Tufsu is citing to a statistic published by this organization that claims their vacancy rates are 20%, and he's treating this as gospel, when a look at their available listings clearly shows their actual vacancy rate is roughly 90%.

dude...their analysis reports overall office vacancy rates in the CBD at 22%....what the vacancy rates of one or more of the properties they are marketing is only part of the bigger picture.

btw...here's what I said previously...

"If all of the buildings downtown are so empty, why is the vacancy rate less than 25 percent?"

now it turns out that the northbank vanacy rate (which I had not seen broken out until today) is just over 25%...so yes, I guess I was way off  ;)

Yes, Tufsu, according to the statistic published by the very same company whose actual listing sheets indicate a 90% vacancy rate. If you believe that 25% figure, I have a fantastic deal for you on a bridge in Brooklyn. And I don't mean Jacksonville.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 02:41:43 PM
Quote from: Captain Zissou on July 08, 2010, 02:29:56 PM
^ I agree with you that this isn't gospel.  The statistic is generated to serve some end.  To sell investors on 'Value-Add Potential', or to justify  a higher rental rate in a different part of town.  I worked for one of the brokerages as an analyst, and I'm familiar with how these numbers are generated.  
If it says 20%, I'm sure its very close to true, but not exact.  I don't do this often, but in tufsu's defense, you are only showing 1 building with a 90% vacancy rate.  I'm sure there is another with 4% vacancy, and another with 35%, and another with 8%.

As for the landlord mess, it varies from property to property.  Often times the property owner is responsible for keeping the rent roll full, the broker just lists it.  However, the larger the property, the more likely there is for a 3rd party property manager, which could definitely be Cushman.  

However, at 90,000 sf, they're not called 'Landlords', they're called 'property managers'.  It makes no difference, but I wouldn't want tufsu to get in a huff over the difference.  

By "landlord" I meant "property manager" e.g., the party actually responsible for the leasing and operation of the building. In this case, that would be C&W. Again, sorry if we got lost in semantics. This particular building is a large highrise originally built as a bank headquarters, whatever entity owns it almost certainly is not handling their own leasing.

As far as these statistics go, I understand how they're generated, but that's about as far as I agree. They usually represent a time period, not just the present, so while that 25% figure may be C&W's vacancy rate on a trailing 24-month basis, that doesn't mean their actual vacancy rate isn't the 90% that their own listing indicates.

That was my point to Tufsu. Well not really to Tufsu, since this is his profession and he already knows all of this, but just likes to argue his losing battle in defense of asinine parking policies anyway. I guess I was pointing out that this figure he cited is inaccurate more for the benefit of everyone who hasn't had dealings in this industry, than for him. But either way, now it's done.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Captain Zissou on July 08, 2010, 02:48:22 PM
QuoteAs far as these statistics go, I understand how they're generated, but that's about as far as I agree. They usually represent a time period, not just the present, so while that 25% figure may be C&W's vacancy rate on a trailing 24-month basis, that doesn't mean their actual vacancy rate isn't the 90% that their own listing indicates.

This is true.  The shear volume of work that would go into a perfect, infallible, to date statistic is cost prohibitive for a good analyst.  Their time would be better spent elsewhere.  The second a single office gets leased, that figure is inaccurate anyway.  I'm sure their statistic was for quarter 1 of 2010, using a sampling of probably 2 million sf.  The law of large numbers would say this is probably pretty accurate, but who knows.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: CS Foltz on July 08, 2010, 03:10:03 PM
Kinds like dealing with the COJ departments ain't it stephen? JTA and JEA present the same thing.....phantom numbers to make them appear in the best light! In order to obtain accurate numbers you may be correct big fella!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 03:28:08 PM
Quote from: stephendare on July 08, 2010, 03:06:45 PM
So let me get this right, On the basis of the largest property leased by cushman and wakefield being listed at 90% vacancy---in terms of real numbers, TUFSU ascertains this as proof that the vacancy rate for the company is 25% vacancy?

ok...let's try this again...

Cushman & Wakefield has a department that does market research throughout the world....that group has determined that the overall Jax. CBD office vacancy rate for the first quarter of 2010 was 21.6%.

Cushman & Wakefield also has a brokerage department....that group manages/leases buildings throughout the world...they apparently have some buildings in downtown Jax....one of which has a 90% vacancy rate.

I never once said anything about "the company's vacancy rate being less than 25%"

Why is this so hard to understand?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 03:28:46 PM
Quote from: CS Foltz on July 08, 2010, 03:10:03 PM
Kinds like dealing with the COJ departments ain't it stephen? JTA and JEA present the same thing.....phantom numbers to make them appear in the best light! In order to obtain accurate numbers you may be correct big fella!

Exactly, CSFoltz, exactly...

People throw around these numbers but at the end of the day the DT Northbank is a total ghost town, and no amount of hinky purpose-built ass-covering statistics is going to change that.

Another great case in point of how far the Northbank has fallen is the Skyline Cafe. Now don't get me wrong, I absolutely love the place. The setting and the view are knock-the-wind-out-of-you stunning.

But doesn't it say something, when the 41st and 42nd floors of our premier highrise, we're talking spaces with 30ft ceilings, wood, marble, and gilding everywhere, and a space that in any other city would represent a trophy that would command the highest of the highest rent premiums, is instead being used here to serve $5.99 sandwiches and bagged chips?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 03:37:30 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 03:28:08 PM
Quote from: stephendare on July 08, 2010, 03:06:45 PM
So let me get this right, On the basis of the largest property leased by cushman and wakefield being listed at 90% vacancy---in terms of real numbers, TUFSU ascertains this as proof that the vacancy rate for the company is 25% vacancy?

ok...let's try this again...

Cushman & Wakefield has a department that does market research throughout the world....that group has determined that the Jax. CBD vacancy rate for the first quarter of 2010 was 21.6%.

Cushman & Wakefield also has a brokerage department....that group manages/leases buildings thropughout the world...they apparently have some buildings in downtown Jax....one of which has a 90% vacancy rate.

Why is this so hard to understand?

It's hard to understand because C&W broke their statistics into regions of downtown Jacksonville, one of which is specifically the Northbank. Their statistic, as you've repeatedly stated, claims that the vacancy rate in that same small area is 25%. However, when you look at the huge office tower that they manage in that very same sub-area that they claim carries a 25% vacancy rate, the actual vacancy rate they are experiencing in their own space is in fact 90%.

This, to me, is the height of a misleading statistic. They've clearly created it using some type of trailing average, which no doubt takes into account the former occupancy of that very same now-vacant building, probably together with cherry picking stale-dated information from other buildings, to come up with a figure of 25% at a time they know that figure not to be accurate since they in fact manage premium office space in that same district, and their vacancy rate is actually 90%.

This is typical of the B.S. that people hide behind when they're defending the very same asinine policies that got us here in the first place.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Captain Zissou on July 08, 2010, 03:38:09 PM
Do the Cushman numbers include occupancy of both private and public sector buildings, or just private?  I'm sure there is a drastic difference between the two.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 03:38:15 PM
Quote from: stephendare on July 08, 2010, 03:31:10 PM

It would be interesting to know how much total commercial space has been destroyed in the downtown in the past 25 years since this whole 'redevelopment' bs has been going on.

I would be willing to bet that it has been demolished to a third of the previously available space.

you may be right...but that has nothing to do with the vacancy rate or the # of workers currently in the downtown core.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 03:39:57 PM
Quote from: Captain Zissou on July 08, 2010, 03:38:09 PM
Do the Cushman numbers include occupancy of both private and public sector buildings, or just private?  I'm sure there is a drastic difference between the two.

No doubt that is one of the trick ponys in Tufsu's typically misleading statistic, I'd be willing to bet money that the 25% figure includes the City and Federal buildings, which obviously would count as 100% occupancy, since they are single-tenant facilities.

Tufsu's Potemkin Villages are really becoming legendary...
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 03:40:40 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 03:37:30 PM
However, when you look at the huge office tower that they manage in that very same sub-area that they claim carries a 25% vacancy rate, the actual vacancy rate they are experiencing in their own space is in fact 90%.

you mean the huge office tower with 10 floors and 95,000 square feet of total space?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 03:45:09 PM
Quote from: Captain Zissou on July 08, 2010, 03:38:09 PM
Do the Cushman numbers include occupancy of both private and public sector buildings, or just private?  I'm sure there is a drastic difference between the two.

I do not know...but here's the report....and remember, these aren't my numbers...they are from one of the most respected real estate services firm

http://www.cushwake.com/cwmbs1q10/PDF/off_jacksonville_1q10.pdf
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 03:45:46 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 03:40:40 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 03:37:30 PM
However, when you look at the huge office tower that they manage in that very same sub-area that they claim carries a 25% vacancy rate, the actual vacancy rate they are experiencing in their own space is in fact 90%.

you mean the huge office tower with 10 floors and 95,000 square feet of total space?

100k leasable square feet in one spot is really rather large for this area, Tufsu...

As a case in point, that is twice as large as Cushman & Wakefield's next-largest listing in all of Duval County.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: BridgeTroll on July 08, 2010, 03:47:31 PM
The numbers suck no matter which set you use... but while watching this from afar... Tufsu has cited figures from sources no one appears to believe.  Fair enough.  What sources and numbers is Chris citing?  Where do these numbers come from?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 03:48:27 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 03:45:46 PM
100k leasable square feet in one spot is really rather large for this area, Tufsu...

not really....the downtown CBD as a whole has over 7.5 million square feet of office space...and as you noted, the AT&T building is over 1 million square feet of space...so are Modis and BOA....heck the 3-story office building I work in on the southside has over 80,000.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 03:49:34 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 08, 2010, 03:47:31 PM
The numbers suck no matter which set you use... but while watching this from afar... Tufsu has cited figures from sources no one appears to believe.  Fair enough.  What sources and numbers is Chris citing?  Where do these numbers come from?

LMAO, I cited to Cushman & Wakefield's own listings...(the same company Tufsu cited to)...
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 03:50:33 PM
read the report guys
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: BridgeTroll on July 08, 2010, 03:52:00 PM
Ah... I see... you are simply interpreting them differently or doubting the veracity or accuracy of their reports?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 03:55:33 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 03:48:27 PM
not really....as you noted, the AT&T building is over 1 million square feet of space...so are does Modis and BOA....heck the 3-story office building I work in on the southside has over 80,000

Actually, it is quite large.

And the AT&T building has 960k leaseable square feet, and is Jacksonville's largest building by square footage, so that makes a poor comparison. Like comparing your sailboat to the titanic.

As another case-in-point, then look at it this way...this single listing is equal to a full 1/2 of all of C&W's total leasing activity in all of Duval County for the entire first quarter. And this is just one building.

Sorry, but yeah, like I said, that's clearly quite large for this area....again just going by the same source you claim is the most respected real estate firm. So what's the deal here, C&W is an irrefutable source when you cite to them, but unbelievable when I cite to them?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 03:56:46 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 08, 2010, 03:52:00 PM
Ah... I see... you are simply interpreting them differently or doubting the veracity or accuracy of their reports?

nope...I think they are both accurate...one is a listing for a signle buidling downtown...the other is a market research report on the entire Jax. office market
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: BridgeTroll on July 08, 2010, 03:57:00 PM
Thats cool... we often doubt others sources when making an argument.  I guess what I am missing is what yours and Chris's sources are that back up your claims and refute Tufsu's...
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: JaxNative68 on July 08, 2010, 03:57:08 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 03:45:46 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 03:40:40 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 03:37:30 PM
However, when you look at the huge office tower that they manage in that very same sub-area that they claim carries a 25% vacancy rate, the actual vacancy rate they are experiencing in their own space is in fact 90%.

you mean the huge office tower with 10 floors and 95,000 square feet of total space?

100k leasable square feet in one spot is really rather large for this area, Tufsu...

As a case in point, that is twice as large as Cushman & Wakefield's next-largest listing in all of Duval County.

I know a couple of developers that have multiple buildings with 100,000sf available.  It isn't very surprising.  The average office building has a floor plate of 25-30,000sf.  It doesn't take many vacant floors to add up to 100,000sf.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 03:58:23 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 08, 2010, 03:52:00 PM
Ah... I see... you are simply interpreting them differently or doubting the veracity or accuracy of their reports?

The problem is that, on one hand, this company is claiming a 25% vacancy rate in the Northbank section of downtown, and then on the other hand when you actually look through their listings, the office space they manage in that same area is running roughly a 90% vacancy rate.

This contradiction is all from the same source, Cushman & Wakefield.

Naturally, Tufsu is disingenuously trying to keep one part and ignore the other.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 03:58:40 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 03:55:33 PM
Actually, it is quite large.

I guess so...if you consider 1.3% of the downtown office market large
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 04:01:35 PM
Quote from: JaxNative68 on July 08, 2010, 03:57:08 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 03:45:46 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 03:40:40 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 03:37:30 PM
However, when you look at the huge office tower that they manage in that very same sub-area that they claim carries a 25% vacancy rate, the actual vacancy rate they are experiencing in their own space is in fact 90%.

you mean the huge office tower with 10 floors and 95,000 square feet of total space?

100k leasable square feet in one spot is really rather large for this area, Tufsu...

As a case in point, that is twice as large as Cushman & Wakefield's next-largest listing in all of Duval County.

I know a couple of developers that have multiple buildings with 100,000sf available.  It isn't very surprising.  The average office building has a floor plate of 25-30,000sf.  It doesn't take many vacant floors to add up to 100,000sf.

We're talking urban highrise, in a CBD. It's its own animal.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Captain Zissou on July 08, 2010, 04:02:37 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 03:58:23 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 08, 2010, 03:52:00 PM
Ah... I see... you are simply interpreting them differently or doubting the veracity or accuracy of their reports?

The problem is that, on one hand, this company is claiming a 25% vacancy rate in the Northbank section of downtown, and then on the other hand when you actually look through their listings, the office space they manage in that same area is running roughly a 90% vacancy rate.

This contradiction is all from the same source, Cushman & Wakefield.

Naturally, Tufsu is disingenuously trying to keep one part and ignore the other.

Maybe Cushman just stinks at getting space filled.  See what CBRE, Hallmark, Eola, Gate, and others vacancy rates are.  Unfortunately, I doubt they'd be so easily deteminable.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 04:07:29 PM
Quote from: Captain Zissou on July 08, 2010, 04:02:37 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 03:58:23 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 08, 2010, 03:52:00 PM
Ah... I see... you are simply interpreting them differently or doubting the veracity or accuracy of their reports?

The problem is that, on one hand, this company is claiming a 25% vacancy rate in the Northbank section of downtown, and then on the other hand when you actually look through their listings, the office space they manage in that same area is running roughly a 90% vacancy rate.

This contradiction is all from the same source, Cushman & Wakefield.

Naturally, Tufsu is disingenuously trying to keep one part and ignore the other.

Maybe Cushman just stinks at getting space filled.  See what CBRE, Hallmark, Eola, Gate, and others vacancy rates are.  Unfortunately, I doubt they'd be so easily deteminable.

Wait a second, so Tufsu, you, and everyone else agreed that this was THE "premier" real estate services firm, yada, yada, yada. Now when an obvious flaw in their published literature was pointed out, we can't make excuses for them like maybe they're just bad at what they do...

This is THE premier RE firm, right? By everyone's own acknowledgement here, they can't suck...
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 04:08:41 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 03:58:40 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 03:55:33 PM
Actually, it is quite large.

I guess so...if you consider 1.3% of the downtown office market large

Oh another Potemkin Village, yay...

So let's see those stats Tufsu...then we can start stripping out all the government offices etc., that are no doubt included in that figure but shouldn't be. Then we can back out all the square footage that has been demolished since your stats were compiled. Then we can back out all the square footage that has been converted to residential or other uses since your stats were compiled (11E, the Barnett Building, Metro Lofts, etc.). Then we can back out all the space that may technically be zoned for commercial, but is in completely unuseable condition (the laura trio, etc.).

Let's see how that stat looks when we take the lipstick off the pig...
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: JaxNative68 on July 08, 2010, 04:09:09 PM
the amount of demolished office space downtown, wow, i would love to see that stat factored in.  But after I saw it, I'm sure I would hate it.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 04:12:12 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 03:56:46 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 08, 2010, 03:52:00 PM
Ah... I see... you are simply interpreting them differently or doubting the veracity or accuracy of their reports?

nope...I think they are both accurate...one is a listing for a signle buidling downtown...the other is a market research report on the entire Jax. office market

Nice try, but no. I'm only calling into question the truth of the portion of the C&W report that claims the Northbank has only a 25% vacancy rate, since that's what we're discussing in this thread. I don't care about, nor am I questioning, the remainder of their statistics that would apply to the whole City of Jacksonville, as you just implied. And I find that 25% figure hilarious, when their own highrise in that same sub-area is running a 90% vacancy rate.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Captain Zissou on July 08, 2010, 04:13:40 PM
I have said all along that their numbers are probably pretty close to true.  If they claim 25%, I doubt it's higher than 27 or lower than 22.  I agreed it's not gospel, but the analyst would be fired if it was grossly inaccurate.  I have also already said that if those numbers are true, that doesn't mean that there can't be a 100,000 sf office bldg that is 90% vacant.  

There is a difference between a analyst's market analysis, and a broker's ability to lease space.  I have never said that Cushman was the 'premier' firm.  I think locally CBRE is the best.  Nationally I'd say Marcus & Millichap is far stronger than Cushman, and they used to be locally as well.  That doesn't mean their analysts can't whip up an accurate report.  That's their job.  

I haven't taken a side this whole argument.  I have just added my opinions.  If you can find inconsistencies in my argument, I'll happily address them.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 04:20:01 PM
Quote from: Captain Zissou on July 08, 2010, 04:13:40 PM
I have said all along that their numbers are probably pretty close to true.  If they claim 25%, I doubt it's higher than 27 or lower than 22.  I agreed it's not gospel, but the analyst would be fired if it was grossly inaccurate.  I have also already said that if those numbers are true, that doesn't mean that there can't be a 100,000 sf office bldg that is 90% vacant.  

There is a difference between a analyst's market analysis, and a broker's ability to lease space.  I have never said that Cushman was the 'premier' firm.  I think locally CBRE is the best.  Nationally I'd say Marcus & Millichap is far stronger than Cushman, and they used to be locally as well.  That doesn't mean their analysts can't whip up an accurate report.  That's their job.  

I haven't taken a side this whole argument.  I have just added my opinions.  If you can find inconsistencies in my argument, I'll happily address them.

I wasn't picking at you, more digging at Tufsu...

But let me ask you this, then. Is it wrong for me to have an issue with a company continuing to distribute a report claiming a certain vacancy rate, when they know from their own market participation in that same region that conditions have subsequently worsened?

Is is wrong of me to have an issue with a company including variables in their statistics that yield a given occupancy rate, when they know from their own market participation in that area that the conditions they are personally experiencing are actually far worse than what they are publishing?

You know if I did this while trading stocks, I'd be sued and/or go to jail...
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: JC on July 08, 2010, 04:22:08 PM
Again, people living, eating, sleeping, downtown!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: finehoe on July 08, 2010, 04:22:24 PM
Quote from: Captain Zissou on July 08, 2010, 04:13:40 PM
I...the analyst would be fired if it was grossly inaccurate.

Sort of like when the analysts at S&P or Moody's were "fired" for rating Mortgage Backed Securities as AAA when they were really worthless pieces of shit?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Captain Zissou on July 08, 2010, 04:29:03 PM
Chris;
Yes, This would be a false representation, but only if the vacancy rate is in fact from 2 years past as you believe.  

I agree that public sector office space should not be included, which would increase the vacancy rate.  I also think single tenant buildings like CSX or FNF should be removed, or at least explained.

Until a private sector vacancy number and a timeline for the analysis can be determined, I don't think there's really much to argue on.  Tufsu has an accurate number, but nobody knows what it is made up of.  
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: fieldafm on July 08, 2010, 04:29:40 PM
I requested the details, maybe I'll get that tomorrow(with the 10 year treasury so low, this is the busiest ive been in 6 months).  The .pdf online simply shows occupancy rates as a pct of leasable sq footage.  It's absolutely correct, but it's only correct depending on how you view the numbers.  Say you have a building on the Southside that is 3 stories at 100k sq ft, and one company... say Deutsche Bank(they are in Merridian in single story buildings, so Im just using them as a hypothetical).  Say Company D Bank(in a more generic sense) leases out that entire building and has 650 employees in that office, but say floor #2 is half empty... well, that's counted though as fully leased space.  So as a percentage that building is leased at a 100% occupancy rate, but they could easily fit 1k employees in that space.

Cushman is not the dominant mgmt company downtown... so saying that they have a building that is 90% available and then saying 'well there's no way 26% vacancy rate is correct, all downtown must be 90% vacant then' is as far stretched as far streched can be, lol.

The ~26% Northbank vacancy rate is correct according to Cushman's numbers(the analysts would be just like the accountant at your business, they don't fudge numbers b/c someone over in sales walked over and told them to make the sales guys look good) but as I explained above, that doesn't tell the whole story.  There is probably significant underutilization within that top line figure.  The entire country is underutilized right now in about every metric you can come up with!

Stephen shocked me once by quoting the JEDC official's 6k Northbank claim.  To me, that seems VERY low... that's why I want to see more details.  I'm glad I'm busy, but I kinda would like more time to research that number further.  I plan to when I have the time to do so.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Captain Zissou on July 08, 2010, 04:30:26 PM
Quote from: finehoe on July 08, 2010, 04:22:24 PM
Quote from: Captain Zissou on July 08, 2010, 04:13:40 PM
I...the analyst would be fired if it was grossly inaccurate.

Sort of like when the analysts at S&P or Moody's were "fired" for rating Mortgage Backed Securities as AAA when they were really worthless pieces of shit?

Are people paying the Cushman analyst more than a million dollars to say downtown has a 25% vacancy rate..... I doubt it.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 04:35:45 PM
Quote from: Captain Zissou on July 08, 2010, 04:29:03 PM
Chris;
Yes, This would be a false representation, but only if the vacancy rate is in fact from 2 years past as you believe.  

I agree that public sector office space should not be included, which would increase the vacancy rate.  I also think single tenant buildings like CSX or FNF should be removed, or at least explained.

Until a private sector vacancy number and a timeline for the analysis can be determined, I don't think there's really much to argue on.  Tufsu has an accurate number, but nobody knows what it is made up of.  

Well if that number is accurate, then wouldn't it stand to reason that the actual present-day occupancy figures published by that very same source for one of its own holdings in that same area would also be accurate?

It's just an interesting counterpoint, to have the very same corporation claiming on one hand in a press release that the vacancy rates in a given area are 25%, when they obviously know full well that their own building in that very same location has a 90% vacancy rate. Just seems a bit unusual to the casual observer...
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: vicupstate on July 08, 2010, 04:38:59 PM
I have followed vacancy rates to one degree or another in numerous cities for many years, including Jax.  Based on what I know from that, I believe these comments to be true, but I don't get paid to do this either:

1) Public sector buildings:  If a government building is OWNED by the government it is not included in these occupancy/vacancy stats.  If a government is LEASING space in a privately owned building then it IS included.  So, most of the government offices are not factored into these figures.

2) If a building is not in lease-able condition (i.e. Laura trio) it is not included in the inventory.  

3) Vacancy in single digits is considered healthy and will lead to rising lease rates and indicate a strong demand and vibracy in said area. Vacancy over 10% is okay but not great.  Vacancy over 15% is 'getting high' and will dampen new construction and prevent rising lease rates. Vacancy over 20% is a sure sign of either a recession or a distressed area or both.  Vacancy over 25% is considered quite high and is seen as a cause for alarm among the Chamber/political set.

4) Much more space may be LEASED than actually OCCUPIED. Commercial leases can often be 5, 10 or more years. As long as the space is leased, the owner is getting rent (good for them). However only OCUCPIED space is putting people on the street, buying lunches and making copies at Kinkos.      

5) The analysis that a brokerage firm does includes ALL leaseable space, include the space listed with  OTHER firms.  One building with a very high vacancy is not unusual, but is most often an indication  of a very recent tenent exit or the building has just been completed.  A high vacancy in MULTIPLE  multi-tenant buildings (like Atlantic Place) could indicate a deteriation in the market.  

Any way you slice it, the vacancy rate on the Northbank is quite high, and needs to be addressed, starting with the city negotiating to keep both Modis and Life of the South downtown, just as Delaney did with Stein Mart years ago.  Second, it needs to be determined what is causing the problem of companies leaving and other companies passing over DT. Third, do something about #2.        
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Captain Zissou on July 08, 2010, 04:40:23 PM
Chris, the two numbers can both be true.  

Disclaimer: This is hypothetical.

Modis (800,000 sf)+BOA(800,000 sf)+AT&T (940,000 sf)+ Wachovia NB (300,000 sf)= 2,840,000 sf

25% of that equals 710,000 square feet of vacancy.  It's easy to see where a 100,000ft building could be 90% vacant if there were a couple buildings that had better than 75% occupancy.

An addendum:  The 90k of available space in Atlantic place could have all been sub-lease, who knows..  My company just moved into 12k of space that was 'available, but not vacant.  We're subleasing.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 04:40:26 PM
Quote from: fieldafm on July 08, 2010, 04:29:40 PM
Cushman is not the dominant mgmt company downtown... so saying that they have a building that is 90% available and then saying 'well there's no way 26% vacancy rate is correct, all downtown must be 90% vacant then' is as far stretched as far streched can be, lol.

That's not the argument here, and never was. Nobody ever argued a 90% vacancy rate.

The point was simply that Tufsu's statistics on these parking-policy debates often turn out to be Potemkin Villages.

I personally believe the vacancy rate downtown, excluding single-tenant buildings, federal and city buildings, and all the other crap that is no doubt being lumped in there to produce tha 20% figure, is realisitically around 40% and worsening.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: finehoe on July 08, 2010, 04:40:46 PM
How much they're being paid is irrelevant.  The point is, people whose livelihood depends on appeasing a certain clientele are not going to tell that clientele things they don't want to hear.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: fieldafm on July 08, 2010, 04:42:22 PM
Ok, so if Fidelity, Everbank, BCBS, Prudential, and Aetna are say 350k square feet total and are say 90% leased... but a bunch of smaller buildings surrounding them totalling 150k square feet are 30% leased... that total data set has an occupancy rate of 72%.  Just because there are some completely empty buildings sitting around doesnt mean the entire data set is somehow innacurate when looking at top line numbers.

I very much agree with you that there is SIGNIFICANT underutilization in DT office space... but you can't infer Cushman is somehow lieing, thats a little disingenious.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 04:45:17 PM
Quote from: Captain Zissou on July 08, 2010, 04:40:23 PM
Chris, the two numbers can both be true.  

Disclaimer: This is hypothetical.

Modis (800,000 sf)+BOA(800,000 sf)+AT&T (940,000 sf)+ Wachovia NB (300,000 sf)= 2,840,000 sf

25% of that equals 710,000 square feet of vacancy.  It's easy to see where a 100,000ft building could be 90% vacant if there were a couple buildings that had better than 75% occupancy.

That's the problem, though. None of those have the occupancy to come up with aggregate numbers that would support the 22% vacancy rate being claimed. Simply go into any of those buildings and poke around...
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 04:46:48 PM
Quote from: fieldafm on July 08, 2010, 04:42:22 PM
Ok, so if Fidelity, Everbank, BCBS, Prudential, and Aetna are say 350k square feet total and are say 90% leased... but a bunch of smaller buildings surrounding them totalling 150k square feet are 30% leased... that total data set has an occupancy rate of 72%.  Just because there are some completely empty buildings sitting around doesnt mean the entire data set is somehow innacurate when looking at top line numbers.

I very much agree with you that there is SIGNIFICANT underutilization in DT office space... but you can't infer Cushman is somehow lieing, thats a little disingenious.

We know how math works...thanks.

The problem is that these stats are including things they shouldn't, like government facilities and single-tenant buildings, which have no bearing on the market for commercial space.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: fieldafm on July 08, 2010, 04:49:39 PM
QuoteThe point is, people whose livelihood depends on appeasing a certain clientele are not going to tell that clientele things they don't want to hear.

God I wish that were true, lol
I tell clients things they dont want to hear all the time.

I do get your point.  But, all I'm saying is... it makes no sense arguing about the top line numbers.  You have to dive into the details to get a better picture.

Like Vicup stated, Laura Trio wouldnt count... so again underutilization of actual building stock is blatantly obvious, but what matters to a property mgmt co or commerical broker is 'am I getting paid on my building?' and the top line figures reflect that.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Captain Zissou on July 08, 2010, 04:50:46 PM
Quote from: finehoe on July 08, 2010, 04:40:46 PM
How much they're being paid is irrelevant.  The point is, people whose livelihood depends on appeasing a certain clientele are not going to tell that clientele things they don't want to hear.
There is no comparison between the two.  Especially in Jacksonville. High vacancy downtown means sell an investor on the Southside for 'bond properties' or DT for 'value add. Sell a tenant on DT for cheap rent, and southside if they want to be in the hot area.  Low vacancy DT means sell an investor on DT and a tenant on either DT for prestige or southside for value....  The analyst doesn't have much stake in the game.  It's just a sales aid for the broker and free publicity for the firm if a news source uses the figures.  

There are other areas where I would say a real estate analyst would have incentive to fudge numbers, but not here.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: fieldafm on July 08, 2010, 04:53:07 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 04:46:48 PM
Quote from: fieldafm on July 08, 2010, 04:42:22 PM
Ok, so if Fidelity, Everbank, BCBS, Prudential, and Aetna are say 350k square feet total and are say 90% leased... but a bunch of smaller buildings surrounding them totalling 150k square feet are 30% leased... that total data set has an occupancy rate of 72%.  Just because there are some completely empty buildings sitting around doesnt mean the entire data set is somehow innacurate when looking at top line numbers.

I very much agree with you that there is SIGNIFICANT underutilization in DT office space... but you can't infer Cushman is somehow lieing, thats a little disingenious.

We know how math works...thanks.

The problem is that these stats are including things they shouldn't, like government facilities and single-tenant buildings, which have no bearing on the market for commercial space.

But, many buildings downtown aren't single tennant.  Take Prudential or BCBS for example.  Poll someone in Jacksonville and ask if they are single tennant buildings and 9 out of 10 will tell you they are.

I have to get back to work... look, Im against the current parking policies downtown and for downtown development and all that jazz... but spending all day long arguing about a top line figure is so unproductive.  I really hope I get the opportunity to look at the detailed market report in the morning.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 04:53:15 PM
Quote from: vicupstate on July 08, 2010, 04:38:59 PM
I have followed vacancy rates to one degree or another in numerous cities for many years, including Jax.  Based on what I know from that, I believe these comments to be true, but I don't get paid to do this either:

1) Public sector buildings:  If a government building is OWNED by the government it is not included in these occupancy/vacancy stats.  If a government is LEASING space in a privately owned building then it IS included.  So, most of the government offices are not factored into these figures.

2) If a building is not in lease-able condition (i.e. Laura trio) it is not included in the inventory.  

3) Vacancy in single digits is considered healthy and will lead to rising lease rates and indicate a strong demand and vibracy in said area. Vacancy over 10% is okay but not great.  Vacancy over 15% is 'getting high' and will dampen new construction and prevent rising lease rates. Vacancy over 20% is a sure sign of either a recession or a distressed area or both.  Vacancy over 25% is considered quite high and is seen as a cause for alarm among the Chamber/political set.

4) Much more space may be LEASED than actually OCCUPIED. Commercial leases can often be 5, 10 or more years. As long as the space is leased, the owner is getting rent (good for them). However only OCUCPIED space is putting people on the street, buying lunches and making copies at Kinkos.      

5) The analysis that a brokerage firm does includes ALL leaseable space, include the space listed with  OTHER firms.  One building with a very high vacancy is not unusual, but is most often an indication  of a very recent tenent exit or the building has just been completed.  A high vacancy in MULTIPLE  multi-tenant buildings (like Atlantic Place) could indicate a deteriation in the market.  

Any way you slice it, the vacancy rate on the Northbank is quite high, and needs to be addressed, starting with the city negotiating to keep both Modis and Life of the South downtown, just as Delaney did with Stein Mart years ago.  Second, it needs to be determined what is causing the problem of companies leaving and other companies passing over DT. Third, do something about #2.        

That's how it's supposed to work...

Unfortunately I think a lot of us have come to suspect that the figures concerning our particular market might be massaged to paint a rosier picture than exists in reality. There is simply no way to reconcile the ghost town that is the Northbank with the figures being thrown around here, which are claiming 75%-80% occupancy. That's preposterous.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: cityimrov on July 08, 2010, 04:54:12 PM
What's the market rate for class A Office Space in downtown?  How about in JTB or Deerwood? 
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: fieldafm on July 08, 2010, 04:55:07 PM
Quote from: stephendare on July 08, 2010, 04:50:37 PM


The discussion is about the number of people working downtown.



Which is ridiculous because the amount of leased space downtown would only be relevant to a discussion about employment if there were a standarad amount of employees per square foot, which there isnt.

There isnt a way to determine what the lowest number of employees is based on the information.



That is absolutely the point.  
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 04:55:42 PM
Quote from: fieldafm on July 08, 2010, 04:53:07 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 04:46:48 PM
Quote from: fieldafm on July 08, 2010, 04:42:22 PM
Ok, so if Fidelity, Everbank, BCBS, Prudential, and Aetna are say 350k square feet total and are say 90% leased... but a bunch of smaller buildings surrounding them totalling 150k square feet are 30% leased... that total data set has an occupancy rate of 72%.  Just because there are some completely empty buildings sitting around doesnt mean the entire data set is somehow innacurate when looking at top line numbers.

I very much agree with you that there is SIGNIFICANT underutilization in DT office space... but you can't infer Cushman is somehow lieing, thats a little disingenious.

We know how math works...thanks.

The problem is that these stats are including things they shouldn't, like government facilities and single-tenant buildings, which have no bearing on the market for commercial space.

But, many buildings downtown aren't single tennant.  Take Prudential or BCBS for example.  Poll someone in Jacksonville and ask if they are single tennant buildings and 9 out of 10 will tell you they are.

I have to get back to work... look, Im against the current parking policies downtown and for downtown development and all that jazz... but spending all day long arguing about a top line figure is so unproductive.  I really hope I get the opportunity to look at the detailed market report in the morning.

There is actually a significant amount of space that is wholly single-tenant. CSX and Fidelity National Financial are two large complexes I can think of right off the top of my head. The government buildings obviously belong to that list as well.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 04:57:06 PM
Quote from: stephendare on July 08, 2010, 04:50:37 PM
Not to mention the disingenuous part of trying to change the subject.

The discussion is about the number of people working downtown.

TUFSU lost that discussion a few pages back and tried to imply lots of workers by implying that all the space was rented.

wait a minute...I'm the one changing the subject?

#1 - Chris is now subtracting single-tenant buildings like CSX...as if their space and workers don't count
#2 - Check back a few pages and you'll find this...

Stephendare: It would be interesting to know how much total commercial space has been destroyed in the downtown in the past 25 years since this whole 'redevelopment' bs has been going on.  I would be willing to bet that it has been demolished to a third of the previously available space.

TUFSU1: you may be right...but that has nothing to do with the vacancy rate or the # of workers currently in the downtown core.  
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 08, 2010, 04:58:00 PM
Quote from: fieldafm on July 08, 2010, 04:55:07 PM
Quote from: stephendare on July 08, 2010, 04:50:37 PM


The discussion is about the number of people working downtown.



Which is ridiculous because the amount of leased space downtown would only be relevant to a discussion about employment if there were a standarad amount of employees per square foot, which there isnt.

There isnt a way to determine what the lowest number of employees is based on the information.



That is absolutely the point.  

That's one point.

The other point was the continually misleading nature of the representations made by one poster during these debates on parking policies.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Fallen Buckeye on July 08, 2010, 05:02:43 PM
Quote from: JC on July 08, 2010, 04:22:08 PM
Again, people living, eating, sleeping, downtown!

I feel you. Missing the forest for the trees here.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: finehoe on July 08, 2010, 05:08:55 PM
Office Vacancy Rate in U.S. Climbs to 17-Year High as Jobs Recovery Slows

By Hui-yong Yu - Jul 6, 2010

Office vacancies in the U.S. rose to the highest level since 1993 in the second quarter as the sluggish economic recovery damps demand from corporate tenants, Reis Inc. said in a report.

The vacancy rate climbed to 17.4 percent from 16 percent a year earlier and 17.3 percent in the first quarter, the New York-based research company said today in a statement. Effective rents, the amount tenants actually pay landlords, fell 5.7 percent from a year earlier and 0.9 percent from the previous three months, according to Reis.

Private employers made fewer hires in June than economists had forecast, reinforcing concerns the recovery will weaken, the Labor Department said July 2. The report capped a month of data signaling weakness in housing and a slowdown in manufacturing. Including government, payrolls fell for the first time this year because of a drop in federal census workers. The jobless rate declined to 9.5 percent from 9.7 percent in May as the labor force shrank.

“Although occupancy continues to deteriorate, the rate of decline has clearly slowed,” said Ryan Severino, economist at Reis, in the firm’s report. Rents may turn positive later this year if the economy stabilizes, he said.

A total of 7.7 million square feet (715,000 square meters) of office space was completed last quarter, one of the lowest addition levels since Reis began publishing quarterly data in 1999, the firm said.

Office vacancies increased in 49 of 82 cities tracked by Reis, while effective rents fell in 60 markets. The growing number of cities with declining rents reflects concessions granted by landlords, Reis said.

Washington, D.C., remained the city with the lowest office vacancy rate, at 10 percent, according to the firm. New York vacancies stayed at 11.7 percent. Detroit had the highest vacancy rate, at 26.3 percent, amid declining employment in the auto industry, Reis said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Hui-yong Yu in Seattle at hyu@bloomberg.net

®2010 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: JC on July 08, 2010, 05:33:16 PM
Quote from: Fallen Buckeye on July 08, 2010, 05:02:43 PM
Quote from: JC on July 08, 2010, 04:22:08 PM
Again, people living, eating, sleeping, downtown!

I feel you. Missing the forest for the trees here.

Thanks for the acknowledgement!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 07:24:17 PM
Ok...here's what I have been able to find out so far

1. City employees downtown do pay for parking, including the Mayor
2. There are about 1800 city employees in the Ed Ball Building

I have no additional data on all of downtown yet (other than the 18,000 and 56,000 figures from the 2009 report)...but hopefully we can all to agree on these minimal employmen estimtes for the core:

AT&T building - 1600
Ed Ball building - 1800
Life of the South - 500
Modis - at least 1500
BOA Tower - at least 1500
CSX - at least 500
City Hall - at least 300
City Hall Annex - at least 300
Total - at least 8,000
Note that this doesn't include the SunTrust Tower, the Wachovia Tower, the county courthouse, the old city hall annex, the Yates building, the Landing, the library, the Federal courthouse, and all of the smaller buildfings throughout downtown

Bottom line....hopefully we all agree that downtown needs more people working, living, eating, and recreating there...and while it is important that we not mask or hide our problems, we also can't go off screaming about all of the failures and downtown's eminent demise...if we do, it may very well become a self-fulfilling prophecy.  
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: RockStar on July 08, 2010, 07:40:16 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 07:24:17 PM
Ok...here's what I have been able to find out so far

1. City employees downtown do pay for parking, including the Mayor
2. There are about 1800 city employees in the Ed Ball Building

I have no additional data on all of downtown yet (other than the 18,000 and 56,000 figures from the 2009 report)...but hopefully we can all to agree on these minimal employmen estimtes for the core:

AT&T building - 1600
Ed Ball building - 1800
Life of the South - 500
Modis - at least 1500
BOA Tower - at least 1500
CSX - at least 500
City Hall - at least 300
City Hall Annex - at least 300
Total - at least 8,000
Note that this doesn't include the SunTrust Tower, the Wachovia Tower, the county courthouse, the old city hall annex, the Yates building, the Landing, the library, the Federal courthouse, and all of the smaller buildfings throughout downtown

Bottom line....hopefully we all agree that downtown needs more people working, living, eating, and recreating there...and while it is important that we not mask or hide our problems, we also can't go off screaming about all of the failures and downtown's eminent demise...if we do, it may very well become a self-fulfilling prophecy.  

Thank you. It took 17 pages of everyone arguing about accuracy to finally get an accurate statement! 
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: BridgeTroll on July 08, 2010, 07:46:34 PM
No doubt!

QuoteI personally believe the vacancy rate downtown, excluding single-tenant buildings, federal and city buildings, and all the other crap that is no doubt being lumped in there to produce tha 20% figure, is realisitically around 40% and worsening.

Tufsu has said where he gets his figures.... Where do you get 40%?  Is there an article?  A report?  Rumor?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Ocklawaha on July 08, 2010, 10:59:56 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 04:57:06 PM
Stephendare: It would be interesting to know how much total commercial space has been destroyed in the downtown in the past 25 years since this whole 'redevelopment' bs has been going on.  I would be willing to bet that it has been demolished to a third of the previously available space.

TUFSU1: you may be right...but that has nothing to do with the vacancy rate or the # of workers currently in the downtown core.  

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_EmbD9Ix03Hc/SrghqBGgQzI/AAAAAAAACEk/IxbedHYwaD8/s400/quote+from+sound+of+silence.jpg)

HUH? I think you mean the vacancy rate as a % of the total space currently available... God knows if is just the raw numbers those thousands of folks working in buildings that are no longer there certainly should be notified of their dilemma. Perhaps we can help them all "Cross-Over"...

I'd suggest we all get proactive and start being individual ambassadors of Jacksonville because it's becoming obvious that those we have placed in charge of growing our home have failed miserably. Together we have ceased making a sound and have bowed to wicked masters, a lifestyle we must soon abandon...

Hello darkness, my old friend
I've come to talk with you again
Because a vision softly creeping
Left its seeds while I was sleeping
And the vision that was planted in my brain
Still remains
Within the sound of silence

In restless dreams I walked alone
Narrow streets of cobblestone
'Neath the halo of a street lamp
I turn my collar to the cold and damp
When my eyes were stabbed by the flash of a neon light
That split the night
And touched the sound of silence

And in the naked light I saw
Ten thousand people maybe more
People talking without speaking
People hearing without listening
People writing songs that voices never shared
No one dared
Disturb the sound of silence

"Fools," said I, "you do not know
Silence like a cancer grows
Hear my words that I might teach you
Take my arms that I might reach you"
But my words like silent raindrops fell
And echoed in the wells of silence

And the people bowed and prayed
To the neon god they made
And the sign flashed out its warning
In the words that it was forming
And the sign said "The words of the prophets are written on the subway walls
And tenement halls
And whispered in the sound of silence




OCKLAWAHA
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Ocklawaha on July 08, 2010, 11:16:35 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 07, 2010, 11:03:52 PM
but Ock....I've learned today that government employees don't count...what would Union Station and the rest of downtown DC be without them?  ;)

" J  A  C  K  S  O  N  V  I  L  L  E  !! "

OCKLAWAHA
Title: WHAT ABOUT THE TUNNELS??
Post by: Ocklawaha on July 09, 2010, 12:16:21 AM
   >:(  THE TUNNELS... AND A HORRIBLE MISTAKE OF PURE IGNORANCE!  >:(

Quote from: JC on July 08, 2010, 09:19:23 AM
Quote from: Jaxson on July 08, 2010, 08:36:17 AM
Washington's Union Station is a very inspiring place, indeed.  I like to travel by train and I always enjoy it when I have an extended layover in the nation's capital.  Not only is there an abundance of retail and dining, the station is located where I can roam around the city and play tourist.  During one train stop, I wandered into the Supreme Court building to observe the justices announce a ruling.  Another time I was in town, I got to see a motorcade carrying Chile's president from the Capitol.  

I have repeatedly complained about how terrible our current Amtrak station is.  I feel like I have been beating my head against a wall because it seems that nobody (outside of Ock and me) actually want to have a thriving passenger rail station that could help us bring some life to downtown Jacksonville.  It would be nice to find a city leader who actually gave a crap.  Well, I will have to dream on...

Union station is pretty awesome.  But really my favorite part of DC Metro is the Rosslyn Station escalator!  Its like 4 or 5 stories high and is continuous!

Take comfort my friend, there are THOUSANDS of us and we are really just starting to be heard. Amazing progress has been made in the last 4 years and I'm looking at it through a 30 year window (that's how long since I first brought the Streetcar Plan to city hall).  JTA director and planning are on-board for Streetcar, Expanded Amtrak, Downtown Station, Skyway improvements and more. You can also count most of MJ'S 300,000+ monthly readers, COJ planning, several city council members and virtually every mayoral candidates.

I would suggest that we mothball the Clifford Lane Station for use as a future park and ride commuter facility, expand parking so it reaches US-1 and provides wide open, landscaped, well lit, parking. The train servicing facilities will need to be moved to the area of JTA'S yard or the south side of Honeymoon Yard at which time the Clifford Lane Commissary, baggage, mail, kitchen facilities and crew rooms would shift to JACKSONVILLE TERMINAL. These extra buildings could be razed leaving only the Clifford Lane Station, add an improved double lane bus loop with angled pull out parking, a kiss and ride lane, and BRT services to on US-1 and Edgewood and you'd have a hell of a commuter station for a future Northwest Line.  Northwest? Yeah, THINK REGIONAL RAIL!
Callahan-Hillard-Folkston-Waycross.... alllllllll aboard!

If I get the JTA Transit Director Position, as soon as I'm settled in my hope is to pull in the rail interests within the Transit Agencies in Gainesville, Tallahassee and Valdosta, all of which are already VERY interested. If someone else gets it then I'm here to help, we CAN do this and what the hell, I'LL WRITE THE GRANTS!


(http://fpc.dos.state.fl.us/reference/rc09654.jpg)
WELCOME TO THE TROPICS

Quote from: Timkin on July 07, 2010, 11:16:55 PM
I have a question..  Why did these tunnels get filled in? ... Were they ever used?  Do you think they ever would be used ?

Friend Timkin, Don't worry, 75% to 90% of the tunnels are still extant. The old 1890's Union Station was built like most of the old Bay Street waterfront, just a couple of feet above the high tide mark. This worked fine until the double tropical storms of around 1898-1900 flooded the hell out of the place and did millions in damage. Hundreds of freight and passenger cars, entire trains, buildings, and locomotives were in water that rose to about a foot ABOVE the car floors. REALITY CHECK! YOU BET!

The City and the Railroads desperately needed to expand the station and by 1910 it was kicking the walls out. One thing about the new station was painfully apparent, IT HAD TO BE RAISED WELL ABOVE THE WATER. So the new plan called for a series of extremely heavily built concourses between every couple of tracks all tied to a grand passageway that led to where the "Primes" South Concourse Doors are today. In other words these were built at the same level as the 1890's station, and the floors are thus a couple of feet above the high tide mark.

The Railroads sunk 100's of pilings some of which went 75' into the ground, and then poured 250,000 cubic yards of fill over those concourses making them into instant "Tunnels".  Very clever indeed!  

When the "Prime" was built they simply filled all of the tunnels with construction and demolition debris. The north 100' or so was blocked off by a wall and that segment according to plan was then back-filled with trash. The wall effectively blocks off about 50% of the tunnels (north portion).

The real tragic dumb ass, lame brained, stupid mistake, was when the COJ got a wild hair idea to make Water Street a "Grand Vista" from the Landing all the way to the imposing entrance of the old station. BEAUTIFUL IDEA, but it involved removing the Lee Street Viaduct over the terminals through tracks and the FEC mainline and replacing it with the "new" Park Street Viaduct, which was greatly shortened and lowered from the former bridges level to "improve the impressive view". In order to accomplish the lowering and to maintain a minimum 24' clearance from the top of the rails to the bottom of the bridge, the city removed the fill along McCoy's Creek and put the FEC RY mainline right back to the 1890 level. The new viaduct clears only 2 tracks and a new station is going to need about 10-12 according to what I know is coming and from discussions with USDOT.

In case this isn't bad enough, apparently no one at the FEC, CSX, NS or the other various "terminal" titans, ever read the history of the property and the view was improved without a "obvious" reason to stop the project. Then along came the skyway, and no less then 4 elevated monorail tracks on two structures right across water street at broad, FOREVER BLOCKING THE VIEW that they worked so hard to create. Next along comes the new flood maps that must have sent the FEC directors to watching the weather and tracking the storms on their Winn-Dixie bags... EMBARGO the entire EAST COAST OF FLORIDA, has now become a real possibility with the first tropical storm, and guess where THOSE legal cases are going to end?

CURE? Yes, TEAR DOWN THE STUPID VIADUCT and rebuild it in the image of the LEE STREET VIADUCT, hell maybe with a steep grade, we could keep the "view", at least for anybody west of Broad, or riding the Skyway! The tunnels are one piece of this puzzle and when they finally decide to reopen them, rather then building a flyover concourse, then you'll know our horrid problems with knowing our own history will have been solved. Meanwhile those FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION inspectors walking around down there with the badges and clipboards? ... don't ask me, I don't know ANYTHING about it! Hee Hee!



OCKLAWAHA
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Timkin on July 09, 2010, 12:54:13 AM
Pretty cool story Ock.  I remember sometime back there was a "sneak peek" into the tunnels and they looked pretty intact....   The mindless "planning" over the decades :(. The so-called improvements..  Tearing down everything in Brooklyn and LaVilla for us to look at a huge emptiness.

We have ingenious minds  in planning ...and have had for some time.  I hope I live to see a positive change :).. and Frankly I do hope you get the JTA Transit Director position! We might just see these tunnels unearthed and used again .
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 09, 2010, 08:07:09 AM
Quote from: stephendare on July 08, 2010, 11:08:47 PM
source please.

I believe your unnamed sources were from DVI....mine will also remain unnamed but are from the City and DVI.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 09, 2010, 08:32:27 AM
I am still trying to ascertain additional information...maybe you could also help out and call your sources.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 09, 2010, 09:28:43 AM
#1 - they haven't moved yet
#2 - please cite your sources
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 09, 2010, 09:35:21 AM
Why do you keep moving the ball?

Why shouldn't government employees count....what would downtown Washington DC (and their 10% vacancy rate) be like without government employees....or what about Austin, TX?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 09, 2010, 09:47:11 AM
Quote from: stephendare on July 09, 2010, 09:40:18 AM
My opinion wont change whatever the actual numbers are

I figured that out already
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 09, 2010, 10:47:52 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 08, 2010, 07:24:17 PM
Ok...here's what I have been able to find out so far

1. City employees downtown do pay for parking, including the Mayor
2. There are about 1800 city employees in the Ed Ball Building

I have no additional data on all of downtown yet (other than the 18,000 and 56,000 figures from the 2009 report)...but hopefully we can all to agree on these minimal employmen estimtes for the core:

AT&T building - 1600
Ed Ball building - 1800
Life of the South - 500
Modis - at least 1500
BOA Tower - at least 1500
CSX - at least 500
City Hall - at least 300
City Hall Annex - at least 300
Total - at least 8,000
Note that this doesn't include the SunTrust Tower, the Wachovia Tower, the county courthouse, the old city hall annex, the Yates building, the Landing, the library, the Federal courthouse, and all of the smaller buildfings throughout downtown

Bottom line....hopefully we all agree that downtown needs more people working, living, eating, and recreating there...and while it is important that we not mask or hide our problems, we also can't go off screaming about all of the failures and downtown's eminent demise...if we do, it may very well become a self-fulfilling prophecy.  

First off, you're including 2,400 COJ workers, but whatever.

Secondly, after all that debate where I've been arguing that the true figure is around 6,000 and you've been claiming first that it's really 51,000, then later 25,000, then still later 18,000 (I feel like we're having a negotiation), when the actual figure (including the 2,400 COJ workers that I don't think should be included...since I was talking COMMERCE not GOVERNMENT) is indeed 8,000, and I don't even have point out that more than the entire difference between your figure and mine is the 2,400 COJ workers.

I'll even give you that 2,400...the truth is that these pathetic numbers in a downtown this size is utterly tragic, is the sign of a dead urban core, and represents a total and complete policy failure.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 09, 2010, 10:49:53 AM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 08, 2010, 07:46:34 PM
No doubt!

QuoteI personally believe the vacancy rate downtown, excluding single-tenant buildings, federal and city buildings, and all the other crap that is no doubt being lumped in there to produce tha 20% figure, is realisitically around 40% and worsening.

Tufsu has said where he gets his figures.... Where do you get 40%?  Is there an article?  A report?  Rumor?

Why do you keep going to such lenghts to ignore the fact that I referred to the very same source Tufsu did?

And did you miss the fact that Tufsu just came back and acknowledged the true figure is 8,000, and he's still including 2,400 COJ employees in even THAT figure? (And of course, that's more the difference between his 8k and my 6k figures right there, and his estimates on the Modis and BOA buildings are off by 1000+)

Not that he'd ever phrase it that way, but we already have essentially agreed with each other on the figures.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 09, 2010, 10:53:41 AM
Quote from: stephendare on July 09, 2010, 09:32:02 AM
So lets look at those figures again minus the public service employees.


AT&T building - 1600
Ed Ball building - 1800
Life of the South - 500
Modis -  600
BOA Tower - 1200
CSX - 500
City Hall -300
City Hall Annex -300
Total - at least 8,000

And keep in mind that CSX is occupying several floors of the ATT building.

4,400 people not employed by the city.  maybe.

Glad we got a true and accurate count. FINALLY.

I'm effin' sick of people arguing there are 50k+ people downtown, yada, yada, yada. That kind of disingenuous statistical manipulation disguises how bad the problem really is in the core, which, as I've been saying and as has now been established, is dead.

I have to admit, now that we are finally coming to an agreement on the figures, even I'm shocked at the truth of how bad it really is. This represents a complete and total policy failure. Something simply must be done, immediately.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 09, 2010, 11:19:04 AM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 09, 2010, 10:49:53 AM

And did you miss the fact that Tufsu just came back and acknowledged the true figure is 8,000, and he's still including 1,800 COJ employees in even THAT figure? (Of course, that's the difference between his 8k and my 6k figures)


wow...eiether you misread or purposefully omitted what I said....

I said the # was 8,000 with this caveat:

"Note that this doesn't include the SunTrust Tower, the Wachovia Tower, the county courthouse, the old city hall annex, the Yates building, the Landing, the library, the Federal courthouse, and all of the smaller buildings throughout downtown"

I still believe the 50,000+ figure for all of the CBD area and the 18,000 figure quoted for the core was accurate in 2009...and yes, the total includes government workers...in the core, they probably represent about 1/3 of the total.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 09, 2010, 11:34:23 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 09, 2010, 11:19:04 AM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 09, 2010, 10:49:53 AM

And did you miss the fact that Tufsu just came back and acknowledged the true figure is 8,000, and he's still including 1,800 COJ employees in even THAT figure? (Of course, that's the difference between his 8k and my 6k figures)


wow...eiether you misread or purposefully omitted what I said....

I said the # was 8,000 with this caveat:

"Note that this doesn't include the SunTrust Tower, the Wachovia Tower, the county courthouse, the old city hall annex, the Yates building, the Landing, the library, the Federal courthouse, and all of the smaller buildings throughout downtown"

I still believe the 50,000+ figure for all of the CBD area and the 18,000 figure quoted for the core was accurate in 2009...and yes, the total includes government workers...in the core, they probably represent about 1/3 of the total.

The SunTrust tower is almost entirely entirely empty, so is Wachovia. Your BOA tower estimate is easily off by almost 1,000, and the Modis building has 500-600 workers at most. Additionally, you're including 2,400 government workers that have their own parking. And you're apparently glossing over the fact that you have indeed been arguing grossly inflated figures for the Northbank. There is NO WAY 18,000 people are employed there.

And when you say government workers "pay to park" that isn't entirely/effectively true. The salaried professional positions generally have parking included, and the rank-and-file get steep discounts on city-owned parking, and an allowance for the remainder is generally built into their salaries when the positions are established. If parking costs you $40 a month and I pay you $40,480, or I pay you $40,000 with free parking, then are you really paying for parking either way?

When you figure there are maybe 1,000 other workers scattered throughout the non-governmental private offices that aren't in large buildings, and the few restaurants still left down there (and sorry, despite your claim to the contrary, Winn-Dixie doesn't actually count as a restaurant), then you still have to account for the fact that our downtown is so pathetic that these small private offices have generally been able to buy the building or two next to them and tear it down to make private parking lots. So these people also generally aren't using metered spaces or garages either. And these offices are largely law firms, bail bondsmen, and insurance businesses, which are all non-labor intensive.

Downtown has around 35,000 parking spaces of all varieties according to COJ, and as we're now discovering, it's looking like each and every single worker would have to bring FOUR OR FIVE CARS APIECE EVERY SINGLE DAY before we'd ever come close to having a shortage of parking down there.

So I guess we should bring this back to the point. Since the claims of "total chaos" and "parking shortages" have been so thoroughly debunked that it defies belief, what exactly is your problem with getting rid of all the asinine rules and restrictions on parking? Who's it going to hurt?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 09, 2010, 11:37:06 AM
Quote from: stephendare on July 09, 2010, 11:27:00 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 06, 2010, 10:29:03 PM
I'm willing to bet there are more than 5,000 workers in the BOA and Modis buildings combined....heck, the Modis building alone is probably over 1 million square feet of leasable area....assuming 3 workers/1000 sf and only 50% occupancy, you still get 3300+ employees

QuoteModis - at least 1500
BOA Tower - at least 1500

hmm.

still willing to make that bet?

Especially in light of the new figures with addeco leaving?

as my final post on this matter, sure thing...I'll take that bet

Addeco/Modis has 375 people working on 5 1/2 floors....so yes, it is still entirely conceivable that 1500-2000 people work on the other 30 floors

and, btw, they haven't moved yet...so those 375 employees still count!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 09, 2010, 11:41:40 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 09, 2010, 11:37:06 AM
and, btw, they haven't moved yet...so those 375 employees still count!

That's preposterous!

What next? When your aunt Susie dies, are you gonna just ignore it and keep propping up the dead body for the holiday photos? That goose is cooked, stick a fork in it already.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 09, 2010, 12:15:29 PM
Good call on the Modis building's leaseable square footage there, Tufsu. The 1MM leasable square feet you stated turned out being 625k. So you were only off by a full 375,000 ft sq, or a mere 62.5% of the actual figure. And by comparison, I bet Atlantic Place's 100k leasable square feet (90% of which is vacant) doesn't seem so "insignificant" now does it?

But I digress. The real point here is that the figures are obviously coming in right where I said they would, not coincidentally because they came from DVI, which monitors this stuff and is aware of how pathetic the situation is...even if they don't publish it on their website for a variety of reasons I won't get into.

Sooo...since the core is down from 80,000 workers to less than 10,000 (I'm even giving you all the COJ/Govt employees that really shouldn't be counted) in the past decade, are you willing to admit that the current slate of policies has been disastrous? And maybe you should rethink your stance on the asinine parking policies in particular, since many of the businesses which have fled the sinking ship that is our core have actually cited that very issue in making their decision to leave. And the exodus continues even now...

I have never seen the commercial destruction and ruin of an urban environment on this scale, anywhere, ever before. This situation represents a complete and total policy failure.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 09, 2010, 12:18:46 PM
Quote from: stephendare on July 09, 2010, 12:17:27 PM
I think its possible that we might have a historic failure of a city core.  Maybe on a par with Detroits.

Actually, worse. No joke.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: BridgeTroll on July 09, 2010, 12:22:06 PM
Quotethe asinine parking policies in particular, since many of the businesses which have fled the sinking ship that is our core have actually cited that very issue in making their decision to leave.

Something does not add up.  I have always agreed that COJ street parking with antiquated policies and meters should go but if...

QuoteDowntown has around 35,000 parking spaces of all varieties according to COJ, and as we're now discovering, it's looking like each and every single worker would have to bring FOUR OR FIVE CARS APIECE EVERY SINGLE DAY before we'd ever come close to having a shortage of parking down there.

Then spaces isnt an issue for workers and companies.

I suppose the cost of parking could be an issue...

QuoteAnd when you say government workers "pay to park" that isn't entirely/effectively true. The salaried professional positions generally have parking included, and the rank-and-file get steep discounts on city-owned parking, and an allowance for the remainder is generally built into their salaries when the positions are established. If parking costs you $40 a month and I pay you $40,480, or I pay you $40,000 with free parking, then are you really paying for parking either way?

Are you saying the city should subsidize parking for employees of companies downtown?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 09, 2010, 12:29:33 PM
Quote from: stephendare on July 09, 2010, 12:24:30 PM
subsidize?

Thats the most asinine word for 'remove an asinine tax' i think ive ever heard.

Beat me to it.

The issue is that the current policies have created an artificially high cost for something that there is an overabundance of and virtually no demand for. If you got rid of the current asinine approach to the issue, then the market would take its course and the situation would correct itself in short order.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: BridgeTroll on July 09, 2010, 12:33:47 PM
Explain it to me slowly then... :)  Chris says companies are leaving because of parking issues.  Cool.  He then goes on to explain that there is an overabundance of parking.  Since lack of spaces clearly is not the issue then it must be cost to park in garages and such.

Just trying to understand... I may not be the only one who is not quite following you.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 09, 2010, 01:09:45 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 09, 2010, 12:33:47 PM
Explain it to me slowly then... :)  Chris says companies are leaving because of parking issues.  Cool.  He then goes on to explain that there is an overabundance of parking.  Since lack of spaces clearly is not the issue then it must be cost to park in garages and such.

Just trying to understand... I may not be the only one who is not quite following you.

Yeah, that's exactly correct BridgeTroll...

COJ is sitting around fellating itself to images of all its prized parking meters from 1960 that only accept change (which nobody carries anymore) and then ticketing the hell out of the few people who actually use them, when the reality is that at any given time most of the metered spots are actually sitting vacant. Unless dust and tumbleweeds count as occupied.

This has created an environment where, despite there being sufficient street parking, everyone including the casual visitor is forced to park in pay-lots or garages, or pay an expensive parking ticket. These lots and garages, in turn, are owned by for-profit enterprises which naturally have realized that, thanks to COJ's asinine parking policies, they can charge whatever they want.

So the visitors got sick of paying $5 to park to get a $5 sandwich, and sick of getting a $5 sandwich with a $15 side order of parking ticket, and quit coming. Nature took its course, and the restaurants and shops closed down.

The corporate employers have deeper pockets, and it took them a bit longer to feel the pain. They are in a tricky position, because they can't really demand that an employee they only intend to pay $20k has to pay $300/mo in parking just to work there. So they, like the (now-gone) visitors to downtown, are forced into the open arms of the parking cartel and forced to sign overpriced contracts in order to secure parking for their employees. And COJ, despite owning multiple parking garages for its own needs, agreed not to provide any free public parking in them, to avoid undercutting the private pay-lot and garage owners.

Eventually, the economy started getting tight, and the corporations realized that, hey, there's this great area called the Southside (which not coincidentally was developed by the very family in control of city hall). Over off Gate Parkway we can get land in the Peytons' business parks and build whatever size building we need, without paying $1MM a year for parking and having every visitor to our office curse us out and swear never to do business with us again because they got 27 parking tickets while they were here for a meeting.

So the companies start relocating, at least except for the ones like CSX that have their own parking lots and aren't bothered by this mess. And the snowball keeps rolling downhill, as the ancillary businesses like accountants, supply stores, IT businesses, etc., are forced to hit the road in order to be nearer to their customers. And the longer it goes on, the worse it gets.

Then you have people who, no matter how many abandoned buildings and tumbleweeds are strewn about, will march around declaring this asinine approach to the problem to be a success. Let it go on long enough, and the only people left downtown will be the city and its parking cops. Which is about where we are now.

Asinine policies have created excessive cost for a commodity that there is an overabundance of and no demand for.

In return, the market has taken its course, and everybody left. Great job COJ.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: fsujax on July 09, 2010, 01:12:00 PM
I say board it up and let commuter rail pass through creating the "U" from Clay County to the JTB/US 1 corridor, where all the employment is. Since no one is working Downtown, then there is no need for any commuter rail stops downtown. Suburb to Suburb stops only.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: BridgeTroll on July 09, 2010, 01:12:18 PM
Thanks... I appreciate the synopsis.  In the past few years with the help of Stephen and discussions like this I have learned more about the effect our parking policies have on business.  I always understood the issue with regards to small businesses and restaurants etc... but did not grasp the avalanche effect on the rest of downtown.

The solution then is to simply remove ALL street meters and parking restrictions... causing rates in garages to fall?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: vicupstate on July 09, 2010, 01:26:56 PM
^^

Simply remove the meters, but enforce time limited parking.  Customers and visitors will be able to come in as they please without workers taking all the best spaces.  No one has to fish for coins either.   
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 09, 2010, 01:38:19 PM
Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 09, 2010, 01:12:18 PM
Thanks... I appreciate the synopsis.  In the past few years with the help of Stephen and discussions like this I have learned more about the effect our parking policies have on business.  I always understood the issue with regards to small businesses and restaurants etc... but did not grasp the avalanche effect on the rest of downtown.

The solution then is to simply remove ALL street meters and parking restrictions... causing rates in garages to fall?

I think the solution is clearly to get rid of all the parking meters, and also to convert the portion of the city-owned parking lots and garages that is presently paid-parking into free parking. I would start without any time limitations, and when demand picks up (downtown can be resuscitated over time) then institute time limits if/when necessary. In the meantime, let the market take its course. The pay-lot operators have had a city-sponsored monopoly for 40 years, don't feel bad for them.

The private garage rates would then naturally wind up falling, since they would finally have another option they'd actually have to compete against. More importantly, without the constant hassle of having to go get change just to go downtown, getting ticketed, getting towed, being forced to pay $5 to park in a garage, etc., etc., etc., people wouldn't be so hesitant to be downtown.

Speaking personally, the last time I moved 4 years ago I looked seriously at 11E and the soon-to-open Carling. I happen to love high-rises, and so that was right up my alley. In both instances, the deal-killer for me was parking. None of the units I looked at came with more than 1 parking space, and some in 11E came with none at all. They did have a discount contract with the private garage across the street, but that still wound up being $200-$300 a month per vehicle. Which is nuts.

In Riverside I have two covered designated spots, and there's a whole lot more to do here, and I don't have to deal with vagrants and panhandlers every 5 minutes. Everyone who considers downtown has to face this choice, and for most it winds up being a "not worth it". The lifestyle ramifications are huge, and parking is a problem for any potential resident with more than 1 vehicle, or depending on the unit any vehicle at all. And it's not like you can get away without having one, since if you lived there you have to drive somewhere else to do anything, as these policies have run most of the businesses off.

If you get people coming back downtown, businesses will follow, and eventually everything will take its course again. But right now, nobody is downtown because the whole setup of being gouged for a garage or gouged for a parking ticket or having to make a special trip to the bank to get quarters is just so unbelievably asinine that it's not worth it.

There are certainly other factors in play, and the economy has certainly sped up the destruction the last few years, but this one issue by itself is by far the largest single thing that COJ could address to begin rebuilding Raccoon City (the deserted urban wasteland in Resident Evil, for those who haven't seen any of the movies).
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Lunican on July 09, 2010, 01:40:57 PM
You've also got the private parking lot owners in on the fun by issuing their own fake parking tickets.

http://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2007-mar-fake-look-alike-tickets-part-of-money-grab-scam
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: simms3 on July 09, 2010, 02:24:00 PM
RE: Parking for residents, downtown.

I live in midtown Atlanta, and while each unit in my building comes with 1 spot and the penthouses come with 2, it is $50/month (and thats considered cheap here) for an additional spot.  Smaller buildings usually charge a one time $300 or so fee for annual parking permits in their buildings and overall parking is MUCH MUCH more expensive here.  Bottom line: it does not deter anyone.

Also, they have replaced at least half of the parking meters with walk ups powered by PV.  The walk ups take cards, change, bills, and just about any method of payment.  The meter maids are not quite as strict either.

^^^And ROFL about the fake parking tickets!!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Fallen Buckeye on July 09, 2010, 04:59:36 PM
BTW saw someone heading North-bound on a South-bound street today by the new courthouse today. Are there any statistics on drivers driving in the wrong direction on downtown streets? Especially those that cause accidents.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Timkin on July 09, 2010, 05:43:38 PM
Quote from: Lunican on July 09, 2010, 01:40:57 PM
You've also got the private parking lot owners in on the fun by issuing their own fake parking tickets.

http://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2007-mar-fake-look-alike-tickets-part-of-money-grab-scam


  That Lunican is the witty one ,let me just mention :D
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Ocklawaha on July 09, 2010, 08:18:29 PM
Perhaps we're missing a great opportunity? With an empty downtown we could chip in and erect a couple of dozen 50-80 story false front buildings.... Kind of like a Hollywood set.  A little back lighting and from the freeway, everyone will be convinced we are the REAL CITY ON THE MOVE!

Of course we could convert the core into the Worlds largest Shuffleboard Complex, where Old Hippies and Blue Hairs gather from around the world!

YIPPIEEEE! SOCO!


OCKLAWAHA
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Charles Hunter on July 09, 2010, 08:32:38 PM
Doesn't the city guarantee the profits of some of the garages?  How would that play into the scenario above (which I like).
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: finehoe on July 09, 2010, 08:44:17 PM
The city could at least provide 200 meter-less street parking spaces around the Landing, and then its obligation to provide parking would be fulfilled. ::)
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: thelakelander on July 09, 2010, 10:45:41 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 09, 2010, 12:18:46 PM
Quote from: stephendare on July 09, 2010, 12:17:27 PM
I think its possible that we might have a historic failure of a city core.  Maybe on a par with Detroits.

Actually, worse. No joke.

Actually, it's an insult to the City of Detroit to mention our downtown in the same sentence as their's.  We've spent a decade arguing about parking meters while they've moved on to building LRT. I know people like to pick on that city but their downtown really has turned the corner in the last decade (like most major cities).  They have the arts, entertainment, dining and companies moving back to the core.  Several of those major companies moving back to downtown Detroit are directly responsible for the privately funded light rail line they are getting ready to break ground on. 

Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: futurejax on July 09, 2010, 11:13:03 PM
Moving here from NYC in September and I will most likely be working dowtown.  Getting educated on the downtown problems.  The parking situation as well summarized by many posters clearly seems ridiculous and destructive.  Not looking for a lengthy political history here but I would be interested in hearing how these policies came into place and why they have lasted as long as they have without some common sense and logic winning out.  And does anyone think the current crop of mayoral candidates will end this nonsense?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Timkin on July 10, 2010, 12:58:48 AM
I feel sorry for Detroit.. but then I also feel badly for the Downtown Jacksonville I knew as a kid, that nearly does not exist anymore.  Parking Meters need to go.. no matter where they are.. Garages need to be reduced and some removed as well as surface parking.. some of the great destinations we once had in Downtown need to somehow be revived. Saving the Few Hotels and Towers we have to create Residential infill and/or Hotel Space, IMO could greatly reverse what 3 decades of hideous management killed.  Our downtown thriving Urban Core.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: vicupstate on July 10, 2010, 08:23:15 AM
Quote from: Charles Hunter on July 09, 2010, 08:32:38 PM
Doesn't the city guarantee the profits of some of the garages?  How would that play into the scenario above (which I like).

The city guarantees an 8% profit for the new courthouse garage as well as the two garages at the Arena/Baseball Field.  Only the courthouse garage would be impacted by removing meters. 
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Vtlsgns on July 13, 2010, 01:44:06 AM
I am currently looking for a place to live in Jax. I would love to live downtown. I lived DT in Seattle and a few other places. However I can't justify it in Jax. I looked at the Metro Lofts and 11E. The thing that hit me right away was the significant lack of parking. I lived in NYC and am used to having a difficult time street parking. But Jax is tough. IMO this is a must fix to bring DT up to other cities.
I would not mind parking some distance from my place (compromise of DT living) but there is no convenient transport system.
I really hope that the meter/garage issue is part of future transportation plans the city has.
It has to be!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: comncense on July 13, 2010, 08:35:13 AM
^ When I lived downtown at the Carling, finding a place to park was the last thing I worried about. I just left my car parked in the building's garage and walked to most places I wanted to visit downtown. With 11E you can do the same thing. I know Metro Lofts had some thing where you had to pay for a space or park in some lot a block away. At least that was the deal a few years when I checked on living there.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: GoldenEst82 on July 13, 2010, 11:26:03 AM
Quote from: futurejax on July 09, 2010, 11:13:03 PM
Moving here from NYC in September and I will most likely be working downtown.  Getting educated on the downtown problems.  The parking situation as well summarized by many posters clearly seems ridiculous and destructive.  And does anyone think the current crop of mayoral candidates will end this nonsense?

Those who actually live downtown, have building parking. Even if you moved to an outlying area (S-field, R-side), most professionals have parking handled by the employer. I mean that in as far as having dedicated parking, but it may or may not be paid for by the employer. (perhaps you have time to address that issue with your employer before you get here, I would.)

As to the causes of the parking problem, you could probably search the forum and dig up some good answers.

IMHO a mayoral change COULD be a vehicle for downtown recovery; but only if the person elected is of the progressive variety, and is not determined to shell out our tax money to his developer friends and/or whoever has the brownest nose. I
t is also my humble opinion that Government should not be run like a business, (which is how Peyton thought it should be run) because government deals with people, not profit margins.  Hopefully change WILL be good. :)






Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: futurejax on July 14, 2010, 11:56:18 AM
Quote from: GoldenEst82 on July 13, 2010, 11:26:03 AM
Quote from: futurejax on July 09, 2010, 11:13:03 PM
Moving here from NYC in September and I will most likely be working downtown.  Getting educated on the downtown problems.  The parking situation as well summarized by many posters clearly seems ridiculous and destructive.  And does anyone think the current crop of mayoral candidates will end this nonsense?

Those who actually live downtown, have building parking. Even if you moved to an outlying area (S-field, R-side), most professionals have parking handled by the employer. I mean that in as far as having dedicated parking, but it may or may not be paid for by the employer. (perhaps you have time to address that issue with your employer before you get here, I would.)

As to the causes of the parking problem, you could probably search the forum and dig up some good answers.

IMHO a mayoral change COULD be a vehicle for downtown recovery; but only if the person elected is of the progressive variety, and is not determined to shell out our tax money to his developer friends and/or whoever has the brownest nose. I
t is also my humble opinion that Government should not be run like a business, (which is how Peyton thought it should be run) because government deals with people, not profit margins.  Hopefully change WILL be good. :)



thanks
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 14, 2010, 01:10:25 PM
Quote from: comncense on July 13, 2010, 08:35:13 AM
^ When I lived downtown at the Carling, finding a place to park was the last thing I worried about. I just left my car parked in the building's garage and walked to most places I wanted to visit downtown. With 11E you can do the same thing. I know Metro Lofts had some thing where you had to pay for a space or park in some lot a block away. At least that was the deal a few years when I checked on living there.

Worrying about finding a parking space isn't a problem, that's never been anyone's concern to begin with. There are around 35,000 parking spaces downtown and less than 10,000 people, so you're not exactly facing any shortage. The problem isn't finding parking, it's the absurd prices you have to pay for it.

And when I looked at 11E not every unit came with its own spot, and even the ones that did came with 1 spot. The units at the Carling come with 1 spot except the penthouses. Unless you happen to be a single person, that's going to kill living downtown for you, since most couples and families have more than just 1 vehicle and the monthly rates at the garages are nuts.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 14, 2010, 01:53:08 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 14, 2010, 01:10:25 PM
The problem isn't finding parking, it's the absurd prices you have to pay for it.

ah yes....the outrage of $0.25 meters, $10 max. for daily parking, and less than $100 for a monthly pass.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 14, 2010, 02:40:53 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 14, 2010, 01:53:08 PM
Quote from: ChriswUfGator on July 14, 2010, 01:10:25 PM
The problem isn't finding parking, it's the absurd prices you have to pay for it.

ah yes....the outrage of $0.25 meters, $10 max. for daily parking, and less than $100 for a monthly pass.

It's not the $0.50 I have to put in the meter tufsu, it's the expensive ticket I'll get if I'm 12 seconds overtime, plus the fact that I'm virtually guaranteed to get ticketed under the paltry time limits they allow on the meters.

That and the parking cops routinely disregard the ordinance that states you can come back and buy extra time without moving the vehicle, so even if I go to the trouble of schlepping all the way back to the car to put in a quarter I'm probably going to get a ticket anyway.

Which I can't challenge without going downtown to file the notice of appeal in person, only to have to go back later for a daylong ordeal of watching the hearing officer finding every single one of the 300 people in the room guilty regardless of whether they really were or not. That's the reality created the current parking policies downtown.

And why should I have to pay $10 to park in a garage just to go get a $6 sandwich? If that's acceptable to you, then fine, but the other 99% of people will continue to flee that annoyance and continue to go to Riverside or San Marco, or any of the other places that aren't chasing their customers away with draconian parking policies. And of course that's how downtown got where it is today in the first place.

We tried it your way for the last 50 years Tufsu, it didn't work. That goose is cooked, stick a fork in it already.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Timkin on July 14, 2010, 02:41:15 PM
Lose all the Parking Meters , some of the Garages , and cut the fees in half . We have no lack of parking downtown.. Look at it on an aerial , and that would be obvious.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: ChriswUfGator on July 14, 2010, 02:51:02 PM
Quote from: stephendare on July 14, 2010, 02:43:24 PM
Quote from: Timkin on July 14, 2010, 02:41:15 PM
Lose all the Parking Meters , some of the Garages , and cut the fees in half . We have no lack of parking downtown.. Look at it on an aerial , and that would be obvious.

To everyone, that is, except TUFSU.  Who bikes.

Nah, that's not entirely true Stephen...we've seen him take his car plenty of times. That is, when he's coming over to Springfield or Riverside where there aren't any parking meters! LMAO, what a straaaaange coincidence!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 14, 2010, 03:32:40 PM
actually I have even used my car to go places downtown (especially when it is raining)...but that's usually at night (also when you've seen me in Sprinfield and Riverside) when the meters aren't running.

btw...I fully endorse modernzing our meters...and I'm even willing to remove the meters on certain streets/blocks...but there still needs to be enforceable time limits....which wouldn't solve the problem of getting ticketed.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: vicupstate on July 14, 2010, 03:58:35 PM
You can have enforceable time limits WITHOUT meters, be they old or modern. 
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Timkin on July 14, 2010, 05:55:35 PM
Exactly.  Get rid of the damn meters..they are a nuisance.  Get rid of surface parking on every friggin City block and replace some of these places with real destinations like some of them that were ripped down to create these surface parking spots.  If we could reverse (literally) some of the things we did, we perhaps could bring back some of what we lost , by making these moves.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Victor711 on July 14, 2010, 08:22:45 PM
This is probably the best time to begin my mission Tim... Downtown seems to be falling down slowly. And like what cityimrov said, having sky dining in some of the towers would be great to get a good view.. Hopefully soon, downtown can improve, and my Project L.H.F can take hold to make it better.  ;D
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 14, 2010, 09:27:56 PM
well there is the Skyline Restuarant in the BOA tower...they are open for lunch M-F nd happy hour Thhur & Fri...I encourage evryone to patronize it.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Ocklawaha on July 15, 2010, 12:54:24 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 14, 2010, 03:32:40 PM
actually I have even used my car to go places downtown (especially when it is raining)...but that's usually at night (also when you've seen me in Sprinfield and Riverside) when the meters aren't running.

btw...I fully endorse modernzing our meters...and I'm even willing to remove the meters on certain streets/blocks...but there still needs to be enforceable time limits....which wouldn't solve the problem of getting ticketed.
(http://files.theprofessionalamateur.com/TravelJournal/Content/2006.12.18/images/2006.12.18%20-%2002%29%20Xmas%20Present%20from%20your%20friendly%20parking%20officer%20%28Small%29.jpg)

(http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2337/2047960326_5956eb4e9f.jpg)

(http://static.emedco.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/5e06319eda06f020e43594a9c230972d/Parking-Violation-Warning-Labels-UP44132-ba.jpg)

(http://blog.eppes.net/content/binary/200705-HelenaParkingWarning.jpg)

AMBASSADORS? Bet y'all thought I was joking! Why not Jacksonville?

Changing the old meters for new would be like putting Spandex on the Parking Control Officers... Futuristic wrapping on the same old shit.

1. Get rid of the meters
2. Go to time enforced parking*
3. Adjust the monthly fees to compensate for the lost meter revenue.
4. Offer Corporations the perk of building or locating downtown WITHOUT parking requirements.
5. Compensate consumers and corporations with transit pass packages far below the market rate of leased parking space rent.

* Turn every damn last one of the parking enforcement officers into "Downtown Ambassadors" and institute the timed parking enforcement on Jacksonville MSA residents only... First time offense visitors receive a "Welcome Warning" that explains how the revenue is generated off of parking offenses but since they are visiting "Yadda Yadda" and coupons that can be redeemed at area restaurants.  This will leave ANY visiting out of town executives or would-be residents with a sweet taste for Jacksonville should they violate our parking rules.


OCKLAWAHA
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Jerry Moran on July 15, 2010, 01:50:19 AM
Nice post, Okw.  Downtown Jacksonville is in so pitiful a state, that it is necessary that I quote myself from June 6:

QuoteI’ve changed my mind about the need for parking meters downtown.  They’re not needed, and should be replaced with a blanket 2 hour free parking limit throughout downtown.  The city has the technology to enforce that limit already in place.  The few remaining downtown merchants will also help by reporting overtime vehicles. Have a “three strikes rule” that entails issuing 3 warning per year for overtime offenses, followed by $25 citations.  Spell the rules out on the warnings. This will discourage downtowners and office workers from parking long term on the street, and relieve the occasional visitor from fear of fines.

The two top concerns my customers have when visiting downtown is getting mugged, and having their car ticketed or towed.  The parking meters, though not enforced after 5 PM (officially 6 PM) only contribute to visitors’ angst.  My business operates after 5 PM, and all the meters do is act as spooky tombstones in a creepy cemetery.  Visitors are already nervous about visiting downtown, and the meters reinforce that apprehension.   Removing the meters would be akin to planting neat rows of flowers across the lawn.  A little less stressful, Huh?  Isn’t that what Downtown needs: a little less stress?

San Marco has the right idea.  Last week I had to visit my broker, Scottrade, that just moved to San Marco from Downtown.  Scottrade was formerly located at street level on Laura between Bay and Forsyth.  It was a pleasure to do business in San Marco.  I found a parking space right away, and there were no parking meters to pay.  I crossed the street, did my business at Scottrade, and left  in less than 10 minutes.  There are a lot of little 10 minute transactions that do not happen downtown because of the parking meters, and because the parking meters are being fed all day by office workers.

I asked the manager of Scottrade why they had moved to San Marco, after 7 or so years downtown.  I remember when they opened downtown and how excited I was about having them nearby.  The manager told me that doing business was difficult in downtown, and that his customers complained about how inconvenient it was to visit the downtown office.  Parking was a major concern, followed by the preponderance of vagrants and general seediness of the area.  He stated that parking in San Marco has not been an issue for his customers.

I also asked the manager if, when downtown, Scottrade had any contact with the downtown community, specifically DVI.  He said no, nothing, never met DVI.  On the other hand, San Marco rolled out the red carpet, and Scottrade was showered with attention by the various community organizations that operate there (I can’t remember which ones).

So, let’s get rid of the downtown meters and start enforced 2 hour free parking.  I guess DVI will have to find something else to adhere their stickers to.

The Peyton Administration has not a clue as to what goes on in Downtown Jacksonville, nor does it apparently care to act.  Downtown's only hope is for a dynamic new mayoral administration.  Over the next few months, lets attend the mayoral candidates rallies and meeting, and pin them down on what they plan to do to remedy the miasma hanging over Downtown Jacksonville.  The elimination of parking meters is a good place to start.

Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: CS Foltz on July 15, 2010, 07:08:50 AM
Jerry.............I agree! DVI has no clue, other than using data that was generated 30 years ago just rehashed, and the current administration has no plans other than spending money they don't have! The Boy Prince does not have the slight idea about much of anything.........other than Fee's and increasing taxes!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 15, 2010, 08:26:59 AM
CS...do you even know what DVI is?

not that Jerry is a big fan of DVI, but he's talking about the Mayor and the City...they are not the same entity.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Captain Zissou on July 15, 2010, 09:18:31 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 14, 2010, 09:27:56 PM
well there is the Skyline Restuarant in the BOA tower...they are open for lunch M-F nd happy hour Thhur & Fri...I encourage evryone to patronize it.

Unless they've changed it;  Happy hour used to be Wednesday and Friday, but they cut the Friday hours due to lack of business.  When was the last time you went tufsu?? Have they changed it recently?? I hope so.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Bativac on July 15, 2010, 09:38:34 AM
Quote from: Captain Zissou on July 15, 2010, 09:18:31 AM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 14, 2010, 09:27:56 PM
well there is the Skyline Restuarant in the BOA tower...they are open for lunch M-F nd happy hour Thhur & Fri...I encourage evryone to patronize it.

Unless they've changed it;  Happy hour used to be Wednesday and Friday, but they cut the Friday hours due to lack of business.  When was the last time you went tufsu?? Have they changed it recently?? I hope so.

I was in there 2 or 3 weeks ago and Happy Hour was still advertised as being on Wednesdays and Fridays.

On an unrelated note, I'm sure this has been mentioned here before, but what is the deal with the giant stickers placed in odd locations downtown? What exactly are they supposed to accomplish? Are they permanent?
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: fieldafm on July 15, 2010, 10:05:22 AM
Happy Hour at Skyline has been changed to Wednesday and Thursday.  I found that out by default sitting in the lobby last Friday.  That's now two out of three times I have been that they were closed when they were advertised to be open.

Downtown gets more frustrating by the day!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 15, 2010, 10:53:26 AM
yes...I meant to type Wed-Thiur...thanks field!
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: tufsu1 on July 15, 2010, 10:55:19 AM
Quote from: Bativac on July 15, 2010, 09:38:34 AM
On an unrelated note, I'm sure this has been mentioned here before, but what is the deal with the giant stickers placed in odd locations downtown? What exactly are they supposed to accomplish? Are they permanent?

they are a quirky marketing gimmick done by DVI that I think is pretty clever....they are not permanent and were expected to last about 3 months....its been over 6 and most are still faring quite well.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Ethylene on July 15, 2010, 02:45:53 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 14, 2010, 09:27:56 PM
well there is the Skyline Restuarant in the BOA tower...they are open for lunch M-F nd happy hour Thhur & Fri...I encourage evryone to patronize it.

Happy Hours at the Skyline Restaurant in the BofA tower are now only Wednesdays and Thursdays from 4:30 to 7:30PM unless there's a private function!

If HH is cancelled it's always posted on their website:

http://www.aramarkcafe.com/layouts/classic_new/locationhome.aspx?locationid=3466&pageid=10&tmp=2010030317
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: fieldafm on July 15, 2010, 03:21:05 PM
Quote from: Ethylene on July 15, 2010, 02:45:53 PM
Quote from: tufsu1 on July 14, 2010, 09:27:56 PM
well there is the Skyline Restuarant in the BOA tower...they are open for lunch M-F nd happy hour Thhur & Fri...I encourage evryone to patronize it.

Happy Hours at the Skyline Restaurant in the BofA tower are now only Wednesdays and Thursdays from 4:30 to 7:30PM unless there's a private function!

If HH is cancelled it's always posted on their website:

http://www.aramarkcafe.com/layouts/classic_new/locationhome.aspx?locationid=3466&pageid=10&tmp=2010030317

I went a few Wednesdays ago and arrived at 5:40 and the elevator was locked, so I asked the security guard what the deal was and they said they closed early due to lack of business. 

As much as I spout off about how cool the place is, it like the rest of downtown is getting me frustrated.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: Ethylene on July 15, 2010, 04:04:33 PM
I don't blame you a bit, I've been frustrated by downtown countless ways and countless times too. I've also been to the BofA HH and it was practically desolate. They will not make it going alone. The view is spectacular but it's a stretch to call it Happy Hour! They must tie into the DVI promo and promote it as part of "The Core" and then commit to showing up! Unless they do that they aren't a true downtown destination! I think they are still just testing the waters so to speak.
Title: Re: Can Downtown Survive?
Post by: fieldafm on July 15, 2010, 04:12:52 PM
Agreed, that could be a PHENOMENAL downtown destination.  River Club/University Club views for the average individual.

I took my dad there for lunch once who thought it was great... and I only took him there b/c he always talked so fondly of the old Embers above the Iveys/JEA building.  I took my sister who lives in Seattle up there on her last visit and she likened it to a less expensive and much quicker visit to the Space Needle.

A tiny ad in Folio is not going to get that place the attention it deserves.  I inquired once about rental rates, and it is CHEAP.  I almost couldnt believe it!