Metro Jacksonville

Quote from: thelakelander on May 17, 2021, 12:15:07 PM
Less than a quarter of the cost that JTA would like to spend on the U2C.

Quote from: WmNussbaum on May 17, 2021, 06:28:15 PM
And what is so great about autonomous vehicles? Elimination of jobs for the segment of workers who could drive a bus?

QuoteThis vehicle technology option is expected to have a shorter service life so it does not require a long term commitment to the technology. Once past the initial infrastructure conversion, there would be a high level of flexibility to change vehicles at a later time. This option offers the highest level of flexibility and cost effectiveness of extensions. Autonomous vehicle technology is rapidly developing and there is significant private sector investment in it. By using a larger fleet of smaller vehicles that can be operated individually or in a train set, this option offers the highest level of operational flexibility. It also provides the option of operating at street level. While current application is limited, autonomous vehicle technology is expected to advance in a timeframe that would allow the U2C to have the most current, instead of obsolete, technology.

Autonomous Vehicle (AV) technology without a guidebeam or rail is the preferred technology option that enables the JTA to achieve the desired system attributes of the U2C. The operational flexibility provides high capacity and high frequency service. Extensions are more cost effective and can be at the street level or elevated. This flexibility is critical for the system to reach existing, emerging and planned residential, employment and retail centers. As the technology develops, the system would have the capacity to operate on-demand and even potentially offer point-to-point service where the infrastructure permits.

Quote from: thelakelander on May 17, 2021, 06:26:04 PM
The full project cost was $184 million. Not all of it was paid for by the FTA. So it's still peanuts in comparison to spending 1/2 billion on the U2C. With that said, we could do nothing with the Skyway and still not have to pay the FTA a dime back. So an alternative option is to take LOGT money and build a new transit project 100% independent of the Skyway, other than having a single station connect into the JRTC. As long as the new project doesn't duplicate the existing path of the Skyway, we'd have a fixed transit system that includes 2.5 miles of elevated Skyway connecting various areas of DT.

This option would be exactly what the Metrorail in Miami and QLine Streetcar in Detroit do for the Skyway siblings, the Metromover and Detroit Peoplemover......feed these downtown peoplemovers with riders coming from areas outside of downtown.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 17, 2021, 07:00:48 PM

Quote from: thelakelander on May 17, 2021, 06:26:04 PM
The full project cost was $184 million. Not all of it was paid for by the FTA. So it's still peanuts in comparison to spending 1/2 billion on the U2C. With that said, we could do nothing with the Skyway and still not have to pay the FTA a dime back. So an alternative option is to take LOGT money and build a new transit project 100% independent of the Skyway, other than having a single station connect into the JRTC. As long as the new project doesn't duplicate the existing path of the Skyway, we'd have a fixed transit system that includes 2.5 miles of elevated Skyway connecting various areas of DT.

This option would be exactly what the Metrorail in Miami and QLine Streetcar in Detroit do for the Skyway siblings, the Metromover and Detroit Peoplemover......feed these downtown peoplemovers with riders coming from areas outside of downtown.

I suppose the problem that remains is that the current system does still need to have something done with it. Seeing as there is ~$250 million left (assuming it isn't better used elsewhere), I'd spend ~$20-30 million overhauling the existing system to last until the FTA term runs out

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 17, 2021, 09:47:50 PM
According to this (https://u2c.jtafla.com/media/2880/technical-memorandum-ii_operating-plan_final-april-2017.pdf), current annual O&M for the Skyway was $6.3 million a few years ago. My understanding of the reason for this whole adventure in the first place was that the vehicles were beyond the midpoint of their lifetime and needed to be either overhauled or replaced, and that four vehicles were out of service for mechanical failures. Fixing that, plus some refreshes for the infrastructure and operating system are costs I'm personally okay with us putting some capital into, just enough to get us to the end of the federal obligation. Then the remaining funding can go to alternatives.

Now that I'm thinking about it, it seems pretty odd that they didn't look at their plan and consider that maybe it'd go over easier if they just asked for the $130 million to do the extensions, with a simpler vehicle replacement or overhaul scheme for the existing structure. If they could have squeezed the whole Skyway ask into $150-170 million and done other, more popular stuff with the remainder, they probably would have gotten away with it. I know they apparently felt that requiring passengers to transfer was "suboptimal," but coming out and saying "we'd like to spend $423 million on the Skyway, which would be close to half of the entire gas tax proposal" was ballsy, and probably not a great idea in hindsight.

Then again, they apparently thought waxing poetic about this project turning us into a "global leader in digital innovation" was going to be a winning strategy.

Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 17, 2021, 09:51:50 PM
I still want to see documentation from FTA about the alleged "payback".

Quote from: jaxjags on May 19, 2021, 03:06:45 PM

Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 17, 2021, 09:51:50 PM
I still want to see documentation from FTA about the alleged "payback".

I sent a email to Cumber, Carlucci and Hazouri on defunding the U2C from the LOGT, doing Emerald Trail, etc. I asked that they approach Nate Ford for the paper work about paying back FTA and the threat of "future funding denial." I personally think Nate is just blowing smoke.

QuoteWell not straight from the horse's mouth but I received our third letter from the Federal Transit Administration a couple of weeks ago because they're hearing this discussion, They not only said that we'd have to pay back their remaining use amount because we have always assumed with depreciation on their original investment it would be a lesser amount than the grant, they emphasized in this particular letter that they could actually go back and get the entire amount of the original grant, as it related to the invest their investment in the Skyway so they are part owners of the Skyway and that would be the tire 100 million dollar grant, and they would be on top of that the cost of the demolition and we estimate that it to be about 40 to 50 million. So it's about $150 million discussion.

The thing is, when you look across the country and, you know, we talked about the $2 trillion, from the federal government for infrastructure projects, they can ill afford for communities to take the money, then change their mind or do something different with their investment. So Jacksonville frankly would be held up as an example because you have communities across the country that have taken large federal grants, and for them to do an exception for Jacksonville in the Skyway really open a can of worms across the country with other communities.

Quote from: vicupstate on May 20, 2021, 07:40:44 AM
^^ Does anyone know of an example of a city or county or state having to pay back the Feds for a project that was abandoned?  By project, I mean any type of project, not just transportation related.

Quote from: jaxoNOLE on May 20, 2021, 11:39:10 PM
Is it the elevated guideway that we're on the hook for to the feds? I struggle to understand how we can be on the hook for the "remaining useful life" of the system on one hand, while at the same time being told the monorail cars are no longer supported by the manufacturer and can't be maintained. If the technology is obsolete and you can't get parts, how is it still considered to have decades of remaining useful life?

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 21, 2021, 12:57:41 AM

Quote from: jaxoNOLE on May 20, 2021, 11:39:10 PM
Is it the elevated guideway that we're on the hook for to the feds? I struggle to understand how we can be on the hook for the "remaining useful life" of the system on one hand, while at the same time being told the monorail cars are no longer supported by the manufacturer and can't be maintained. If the technology is obsolete and you can't get parts, how is it still considered to have decades of remaining useful life?

It's actually both for the infrastructure and for the vehicles themselves. Interestingly enough, JTA actually has published a letter from the FTA regarding the Skyway vehicles, which you can find here (https://u2c.jtafla.com/media/2933/fta-letter-skyway-useful-life-response_october-10-2019.pdf). Why they haven't done the same regarding the infrastructure is a mystery.

Quote
Either way, the larger frustration remains that JTA is actively refusing to consider any downtown transportation solution beyond autonomous vehicles (to the point of outright denigrating fixed transit, as if every other city has somehow done this wrong), is using hypothetical capability and particularly hypothetical economic effects to defend their decision, and City Council remains broadly more concerned about passing a gas tax at all than about what we could use it for. The outstanding question seems to be whether an amendment could mandate the remaining $247 million be directed to alternatives or if funding the Emerald Trail was enough and that remainder will get an up-down vote with the rest of the bill.

QuoteI think cutting the more popular (or the least unpopular) component -- neighborhood extensions -- was not the best approach. Flawed as it is, even if nothing changes, I still hope the bill survives.

Quote from: thelakelander on May 21, 2021, 11:27:50 AM

QuoteI think cutting the more popular (or the least unpopular) component -- neighborhood extensions -- was not the best approach. Flawed as it is, even if nothing changes, I still hope the bill survives.

75% of the Skyway project should be funded with state and federal dollars and not LOGT funds. JTA being given $240 million for the U2C and already having $44 million for Bay Street, is a hell of a lot more than the 25% local funds they should be receiving. They've made out like a bandit if this passes. No pork has been cut from this project.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 21, 2021, 11:46:46 AM
Here's what I came up with for an amendment:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1syWnDTiLa-fmqYftMyIQ9_6ozLMmKSXE/view?usp=sharing

It would reduce the Skyway Conversion to simply Skyway Rehabilitation, convert the Skyway Fleet purchase line into vehicle overhauls, increase the funding for the JRTC Rail Terminal so that we actually get to build a rail terminal versus just planning to, partly (pretty substantially I think) funds a Phase 1 Commuter Rail project to St. Augustine, and still includes $33 million for transit improvements, which in theory could be enough for an entire new BRT corridor or widespread frequency improvements, whatever they can make work.

It's probably not perfect, but I think it's quite a bit better than blowing $240 million to remove a concrete beam.

Quote
The researchers expected that the presence of autonomous vehicles would compete with public transit, which in Madison is the bus system. In the survey, when people could choose between private vehicles, autonomous taxis, buses, and bicycles, they responded that they would use autonomous vehicle taxis 31 percent of the time. People with their own private vehicles were not interested in swapping that for a ride in an autonomous taxi. Instead, as researchers expected, people who usually rely on public transit could be swayed by the self-driving Ubers of the future.

Quote from: Charles Hunter on June 07, 2021, 10:48:26 AM
Second, it appears the study looked at AVs as "self-driving Ubers" and not as line-haul transit, as proposed here.

Quote from: bl8jaxnative on June 07, 2021, 04:58:38 PM

Quote from: Charles Hunter on June 07, 2021, 10:48:26 AM
Second, it appears the study looked at AVs as "self-driving Ubers" and not as line-haul transit, as proposed here.

That's because anyone with more than 1.4 brain cells realizes the key technology advantage of the auto is point to point service.

People at JTA know this.

Pretty amazing testament to the short comings of bureaucracy that there vision for tomorrow is still stuck in 1883 with fixed stops.

QuoteTesla CEO Elon Musk said on Saturday that making a self-driving car was harder than he expected, after the company's timeline for its latest Full Self-Driving (FSD) software slipped again.

Self-driving was a "hard problem" that "requires solving a large part of real-world AI," Musk tweeted.

"Didn't expect it to be so hard, but the difficulty is obvious in retrospect," he said....

Quote
In 2015, Elon Musk said self-driving cars that could drive "anywhere" would be here within two or three years.

In 2016, Lyft CEO John Zimmer predicted they would "all but end" car ownership by 2025.

In 2018, Waymo CEO John Krafcik warned autonomous robocars would take longer than expected.

In 2021, some experts aren't sure when, if ever, individuals will be able to purchase steering-wheel-free cars that drive themselves off the lot.

In contrast to investors and CEOs, academics who study artificial intelligence, systems engineering and autonomous technologies have long said that creating a fully self-driving automobile would take many years, perhaps decades. Now some are going further, saying that despite investments already topping $80 billion, we may never get the self-driving cars we were promised. At least not without major breakthroughs in AI, which almost no one is predicting will arrive anytime soon...

Quote from: bl8jaxnative on July 06, 2021, 10:57:45 AM
Anyone fluent in German?  Any interesting tid bits?

In short, they tested NAVYA mini robobuses for 3 years and found they're not ready for regular use.

https://www.heise.de/news/Autonomer-Bus-bewaehrt-sich-in-Wien-nicht-6124642.html

QuoteThe two shuttle buses have been used since April 2018, initially in a garage and on a university campus, and then from June 2019 in public passenger test operations in Seestadt. Over 12,000 kilometers were driven at a maximum of 20 km/h (~12 mph) and more than 8,000 passengers were carried.

Quote"There are still weather-related problems in both summer and winter. Strong winds as well as light snowfall, heavy rain or fog mean that the e-buses have to be controlled manually. The market still has to cope with numerous tasks for the vehicles to be used continuously on a regular basis."

QuoteThe Seestadt would be ideally suited for the slowly autonomous buses. Urban planners have deliberately left a lot of space and at the same time given cars little space. "The Seestadt use case was a perfect environment for NAVYA to test the autonomous buses," said NAVYA Sales Manager Jean-Michel Boëz "Cars is deliberately reduced."

However, a young district means that something is constantly changing. Therefore, NAVYA had to constantly re-record the route traveled and even try to anticipate new conditions. "The environment itself was a challenge, as it was constantly changing due to construction work and so on, prompting our team to continuously adapt the route and predict future work in order to ensure the smoothest possible operation," explained Boëz.

QuoteThe extent of the problem was already evident during the first autonomous test drives in April 2018: the route was mapped in March when it was still cold in Vienna. Two weeks later it was warm and the buses always stopped automatically in the same place. It took some searching to find the "obstacle": daisies had grown out of a crack in the pavement. That disrupted the artificial intelligence of the autonomous vehicle.

Quote"As soon as the technology makes noticeable progress, we will look for vehicles again," promises Günter Steinbauer, Managing Director of Wiener Linien, "because the overall impression that both the passengers shared with us and that we received after three years shows that this will be the future. Only when this future begins is not yet certain!"

Quote from: jaxoNOLE on July 06, 2021, 04:59:56 PM
And now: When drilling a brand new tunnel is somehow cheaper per mile than JTA rehabbing an existing above-ground structure:

https://observer.com/2021/06/elon-musk-boring-company-open-vegas-tunnel-experts-skeptic/ (https://observer.com/2021/06/elon-musk-boring-company-open-vegas-tunnel-experts-skeptic/)

Sounds like it may have issues of its own, but it's yet another example of how the cost of U2C is simply laughable when compared to other solutions.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 06, 2021, 07:48:52 PM

Quote from: jaxoNOLE on July 06, 2021, 04:59:56 PM
And now: When drilling a brand new tunnel is somehow cheaper per mile than JTA rehabbing an existing above-ground structure:

https://observer.com/2021/06/elon-musk-boring-company-open-vegas-tunnel-experts-skeptic/ (https://observer.com/2021/06/elon-musk-boring-company-open-vegas-tunnel-experts-skeptic/)

Sounds like it may have issues of its own, but it's yet another example of how the cost of U2C is simply laughable when compared to other solutions.

The thing about the Loop is that it's a very poor mass transit solution and a very poor use of potential transit ROW. But, at this point it has proven itself more than the U2C has at actually being capable of carrying passengers in "revenue" service. It works poorly, but it works. Also, it's very important to note that even Boring and by association Tesla have pushed back if not given up (in the near term) on the possibility of autonomous operation.

Even if you give JTA the credit of their theoretical implementation being different from the experiment in Austria, by virtue of building additional infrastructure into the road, they don't actually have any way of knowing whether what they're doing is possible.

In terms of the infrastructure cost, the 3-mile Bay Street line is supposed to cost about the same as the tunnel project, although with only ~12 vehicles (last I checked) rather than the 62 used by Boring.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 07, 2021, 11:51:08 AM
Two reasons.

First, it's possible that the conversion could be less "remove beam, pour concrete into beam until flat" and more "remove beam, remove entire bridge section, fabricate and place new bridge section." There are different alternatives, and they haven't decided which to go with. Now that they know they have the money, they might decide to just go for the most elaborate option, with the only limitation being to not spend the money meant for the other stuff.

Speaking of other stuff, the conversation cost isn't just the construction. It's also building all of the associated infrastructure. Refurbishing the stations (Have you seen the Rosa Parks station concept from the TOD study? It's pretty dramatic), overhauling any and all related cabling (adding fiber), replacing signaling systems, probably a massive overhaul of the maintenance and operations center, redoing the payment system, and likely a bunch of other things related to the AVs that we're not aware of.

Quote from: Charles Hunter on July 07, 2021, 12:06:50 PM
How are they coming with developing a solution to getting the AVs between the elevated guideway and the ground?

Quote from: thelakelander on July 07, 2021, 03:58:42 PM
I asked during my tour of their testing facility. The short answer is they don't know. They planned to ramp down Hogan Street but the DIA said no. So they were exploring an elevator which is one of the dumbest things I've heard about this project so far. The sane person in me wonders why they just won't try a pilot AV program that's 100% at-grade by removing a lane out of a locally maintained street? It would be a thousand times cheaper, less time consuming and easier to implement.

Quote from: thelakelander on July 13, 2021, 08:07:38 PM
Lol at this article: https://news.wjct.org/post/industry-first-jta-goodyear-roll-out-airless-tires-autonomous-test-shuttle

QuoteLocal Motors President Vikrant Aggarwal said in a statement that autonomous vehicles such as Olli still need to decrease maintenance costs and "perform reliably," but added that he thinks Goodyear's NPTs will be less of a burden for maintenance teams. NPTs could become an industry standard, he said.

https://link.autonews.com/view/5f7a8f4d756427613a3db85aek9o0.54j/6154a7eb (https://link.autonews.com/view/5f7a8f4d756427613a3db85aek9o0.54j/6154a7eb)

QuoteJTA has been testing automated vehicles at Armsdale from three different companies for its U2C program but has not selected the model that will be used.

Ford said JTA will award the bid for the first phase of the U2C — the 3-mile Bay Street Innovation Corridor — within a few weeks.

He says the project will take two to 2½ years to complete.

JTA will receive $247 million for the U2C from the 6-cent Local Option Gas Tax increase approved by City Council on May 26.

The authority will use the money for the second phase of the U2C, which will convert the Skyway monorail track into an elevated roadway for the automated vehicles connected to the Innovation Corridor.

Ford said the JTA will station attendants aboard the automated vehicles when they're first deployed until officials determine the technology is ready to be fully autonomous.

"We don't feel, at this juncture, the technology is robust enough as it relates to all the different encounters that will happen in a typical American street," Ford said. "Everything from pedestrians, children and animals, things of that nature.

"In the future, when the time is right based on closed courses and closed streets and roads, then you can get into a model of driverless."

Quote
Waymo, the self-driving vehicle company under Alphabet, has launched a robotaxi service that will be open to certain vetted riders in San Francisco.

On Tuesday, the company officially kicked off its Waymo One Trusted Tester program in the city with a fleet of all-electric Jaguar I-PACEs equipped with the company's fifth generation of its autonomous vehicle system. This AV system, which has been branded the Waymo Driver, is informed by 20 million self-driven miles on public roads and over 10 billion miles driven in simulation, according to Waymo.
...
The company will have so-called "autonomous specialists" — another term for human safety operators — sitting in the front seat to monitor the ride and ensure a safe experience. These safety drivers are contract workers, and employed by Transdev. Waymo has long partnered with Transdev to provide staffing for some of its operations.

QuoteTesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk now says the EV maker's Full Self Driving beta will be available to the wider U.S. public in about four weeks.

Quote from: thelakelander on August 26, 2021, 05:14:14 PM
Definitely, a waste of time and money. How about some bus shelters please?!

QuoteThe Balfour Beatty V2R is a consortium of five companies including Superior Construction Co. Southeast; Beep Inc.; WGI, Inc.; Stantec Consulting Services Inc.; Miller Electric; and Balfour Beatty.

QuoteAccording to board documents, Balfour Beatty VR2 was the only bidder.

The board also voted unanimously to negotiate an estimated $2 million contract with England-Thims & Miller for construction, engineering and inspection for the first phase of the project.

QuoteAfter the vote Aug. 26, Schmidt said taking the design from 30% to the 90% goal in the next year will refine the cost estimate, as JTA and Balfour Beatty selects technologies that will make the U2C function.

"We have to make sure we're not picking the Blackberry but we're picking the iPhone," Ford said.

"It's that kind of challenge that we have to walk through and negotiate that design with Balfour Beatty."

Quote
At the time, the vehicle was under manual control of an operator, who told police they "were aware that a person was there but thought (the person) would (realize that a bus was coming) and stop crossing the (street)," the Asahi reported.

Quote from: thelakelander on August 27, 2021, 04:55:19 PM
They're only at 30% design and there was only one bidder?! Expect the estimated cost to skyrocket. Definitely watching this show with a tub of popcorn. Hopefully, they can avoid hurting downtown businesses if they are imagining tearing up Bay Street.

Quote from: thelakelander on August 27, 2021, 04:55:19 PM
They're only at 30% design and there was only one bidder?! Expect the estimated cost to skyrocket. Definitely watching this show with a tub of popcorn. Hopefully, they can avoid hurting downtown businesses if they are imagining tearing up Bay Street.

QuoteNot only will AVs satisfy all of the program requirements, but they will also be the most cost-effective approach for new service extensions and are rapidly evolving in their capabilities.

Quote from: thelakelander on September 02, 2021, 06:43:05 PM
Of course! Wishful and optimistic at best. No rational nexus or proven facts for them to base the optimism upon. So when reality strikes, the message will shift.

QuoteThe driverless automated transit solution is evolving at such a rapid pace; one can expect that within a
short amount of time, it will be able to accommodate most urban transit needs and solutions.

QuoteIf the Jacksonville Transportation Authority expands the Skyway into the Ultimate Urban Circulator, it could lead to infill development near Park Street in Five Points, spur higher density residential projects near UF Health and add life to the streets of LaVilla.

Those were the findings of a $1 million study commissioned by JTA that the authority rolled out Tuesday as part of its blueprint for converting the Skyway into an autonomous vehicle system reaching throughout the urban core.

"Now we are looking, specifically, at the transportation elements to make downtown more attractive from a living perspective, a work perspective, in terms of the right mix of office and retail," JTA CEO Nathaniel Ford Sr. said. "Doing these in advance, we can properly plan and design these facilities well in advance and not try to shoehorn something in after development occurs."

To create the Ultimate Urban Circulator, JTA proposes adding 7.5 miles and 14 stations to the 2.5 miles of track and eight stations used by the Skyway system. The circulator would have five corridors, stretching to Five Points, San Marco, LaVilla, the sports complex and Springfield.

The 528-page report looking at development that could take place along the proposed routes was produced by engineering consultant WSP USA Inc. and real estate consulting firm HR&A and was paid for with a grant from the Federal Transit Administration.

The goal of the study was to lay out a framework for how the transit system could lead to private sector projects.

"The idea (is)that we've already done the economic outlook of each individual station, and we understand what those demographics mean," Clark said. "Even more importantly, this is what the community said they wanted to see. When a developer comes in, that's an enormous hurdle. When you have certainty, developers come."

Building out the Ultimate Urban Circulator is expected to cost $432 million.

If the project is done, it would have to be paid for by non-local funds. Although JTA had pushed to use money from the recently expanded gas tax to build the circulator, City Council has forbidden the agency from doing so.

JTA Director of Economic Development Richard Clark said Monday the agency has applied for a $5.65 million grant as part of the U.S. Department of Transportation's RAISE program. It's the same pool of discretionary funding that JTA won to build the Bay Street Innovation Corridor, otherwise known as the Phase I of Ultimate Urban Circulator program.

Ford said JTA will also apply for funding through the Federal Transit Administration's Capital Investment Grants Program.

Work on the first phase of the Ultimate Urban Circulator is slated to begin later this year, and service is expected to begin by 2025. The second phase, converting the Skyway into an autonomous vehicles program, as well as the third phase, expanding the system into neighborhoods, are both expected to begin after the Bay Street Innovation Corridor is completed.

https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2021/09/21/jta-u2c-tod-study.html?mpaign=ae&utm_content=ja&ana=e_ja_ae&j=25103134&senddate=2021-09-21utm_source=st&utm_medium=en&utm_ca

Quote from: Charles Hunter on September 21, 2021, 04:42:07 PM
When will they post the study on their website?

QuoteThe U²C is a new, technology-driven mode for which there are no real precedents. However, we looked for light rail transit (LRT) and bus rapid transit (BRT) based on their surface similarities to Jacksonville's mix of LRT (the Skyway) and BRT and, in certain cases, the lack of a fixed guideway.

• TriMet Yellow Line, Portland, OR (LRT)
• Metro Green Line, Minneapolis, MN (LRT)
• MLK Jr. East Busway, Pittsburgh, PA (BRT)
• Troost MAX BRT, Kansas City, KS (BRT)
• Cleveland HealthLine, Cleveland, OH (BRT)
• Patriot Place Commuter Rail Link, Foxborough, MA (Commuter Rail?)
• COTA CMAX, Columbus, OH (BRT)

Quote from: marcuscnelson on September 22, 2021, 12:43:31 AM

Quote from: Charles Hunter on September 21, 2021, 04:42:07 PM
When will they post the study on their website?

Here it is:

https://online.flippingbook.com/view/657074596/

They posted it on Twitter but it's nowhere on their website yet. Starting to read now.

Quote
There are surprisingly many typos in the document, including several pages where the reference numbers for graphics is wrong. For a report that was supposed to be complete months ago, it's rather odd.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on September 22, 2021, 02:28:09 AM

QuoteThe U²C is a new, technology-driven mode for which there are no real precedents. However, we looked for light rail transit (LRT) and bus rapid transit (BRT) based on their surface similarities to Jacksonville's mix of LRT (the Skyway) and BRT and, in certain cases, the lack of a fixed guideway.

The case studies the U2C is compared to include:

• TriMet Yellow Line, Portland, OR (LRT)
• Metro Green Line, Minneapolis, MN (LRT)
• MLK Jr. East Busway, Pittsburgh, PA (BRT)
• Troost MAX BRT, Kansas City, KS (BRT)
• Cleveland HealthLine, Cleveland, OH (BRT)
• Patriot Place Commuter Rail Link, Foxborough, MA (Commuter Rail?)
• COTA CMAX, Columbus, OH (BRT)

Essentially, the study fundamentally relies on the assumption that the market will treat the U2C like a conventional LRT or BRT system despite its substantial differences, and respond with new development as if it was. The entire study is built on this assumption. Therefore, the actual development potential around stations, particularly those running in mixed traffic is likely somewhat less clear than presented by the study.

Quote from: Charles Hunter on September 22, 2021, 11:19:25 AM

Quote
There are surprisingly many typos in the document, including several pages where the reference numbers for graphics is wrong. For a report that was supposed to be complete months ago, it's rather odd.

This will drive me crazy - lack of quality control and proofreading are major concerns of mine.  If they can't get the obvious things right, can we trust their analysis of less obvious things?

Quote from: thelakelander on September 22, 2021, 11:30:59 AM
This assumption alone pretty much discredits the report from having any real viable use other than wrapping fish. A good example of wasting tax dollars. In addition, some of those BRT systems mentioned have not stimulated the amount of TOD they claim. Cleveland's HealthLine is a great example. There are multiple universities and medical centers along Euclid Avenue that were present before that BRT project. When these places spend money on new dorms, student centers, cancer centers, etc., the transit agency and economic development types have included these projects as TOD. However, much of the development would have happened regardless of the presence of transit.

QuoteUS opens probe into Tesla's Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

(CNN)WASHINGTON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said it is looking into a consumer report that a Tesla Model Y was involved in an accident while using the company's Full Self-Driving (FSD) Beta software.

The owner of a 2021 Tesla Model Y reported to the auto safety agency that on Nov. 3 in Brea, California the vehicle was in FSD Beta mode "and while taking a left turn the car went into the wrong lane and I was hit by another driver in the lane next to my lane."

The car "gave an alert half way through the turn" and the driver tried to assume control "but the car by itself took control and forced itself into the incorrect lane," the report says. The car was severely damaged on the driver side, the owner added.

"NHTSA is aware of the consumer complaint in question and is in communication with the manufacturer to gather additional information," an NHTSA spokesperson told Reuters on Friday

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/13/tech/tesla-autopilot-emergency-crashes/index.html

Quote from: marcuscnelson on November 19, 2021, 07:10:55 PM
The U.S. Department of Transportation apparently sees something we don't. They've announced a grant to help on planning for the neighborhood extensions. Curiously enough, it makes mention of "some dedicated transit lanes."

Quote from: tufsu1 on November 20, 2021, 09:46:29 PM
Impressive map with that RAISE project description ;)

Quote
It set off a minor arms race among automakers to produce a new class of autonomous EV people movers, however, imparting Level 4 autonomous capabilities has proven exceedingly difficult to date — in part due to technological shortcomings in the current generation of sensor and signal processing systems.

QuoteThe Olli 2.0 is one of many vehicles the JTA's tested, not one that was identified as the vehicle we would use... that decision is a while off

Quote from: Charles Hunter on January 13, 2022, 10:24:03 PM
From the article

Quote
It set off a minor arms race among automakers to produce a new class of autonomous EV people movers, however, imparting Level 4 autonomous capabilities has proven exceedingly difficult to date — in part due to technological shortcomings in the current generation of sensor and signal processing systems.

QuoteI'm not sure who you're quoting but safety is always our concern with anything. JTA has also been clear that the service would not begin in L4. It would begin in L3 and eventually move to L4.

Quote from: Captain Zissou on January 14, 2022, 10:45:57 AM
I believe they are already designing Bay Street/Gator Bowl Blvd to accommodate lanes for these vehicles.  Either that, or I have zero explanation for why they need so many lanes for a road that is never busy other than 12 days a year.

Quote from: Captain Zissou on January 14, 2022, 10:45:57 AM
I believe they are already designing Bay Street/Gator Bowl Blvd to accommodate lanes for these vehicles.  Either that, or I have zero explanation for why they need so many lanes for a road that is never busy other than 12 days a year.

QuoteJTA set to pick manager to oversee projects funded by gas tax expansion

The Jacksonville Transportation Authority is in the process of hiring a project manager to oversee the work that will be funded by Duval County's increased gas tax, which went into effect at the beginning of the year.

Thursday morning, the authority will begin the process of picking between AECOM, HTNB Corporation, Jacobs Project Management and Reynolds, Smith & Hill to oversee the projects, with a contractor expected to be selected on Jan. 27.

The projects include rehabilitating the Jacksonville Skyway vehicles at a cost of $6.87 million, providing a new $16.18 million boat for the St. Johns River Ferry and spending $34.71 million to bring JTA bus stops into compliance with the latest Americans with Disabilities Act standards. Bidding expected to kick off in spring.

Which projects will be tackled first remains to be seen: About eight months since the tax was approved by City Council, JTA is still in the process of creating a schedule for the work.

The expanded local option gas tax is expected to raise about $25 million a year for drainage, roadway and transit infrastructure projects, with the money split between JTA and the city. The former will handle roadway and transit projects, while the latter will primarily handle drainage projects.

The authority projects it will receive $12.5 million from the gas tax during the first 12 months of the levy....

https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2022/01/20/duval-county-begins-additional-gas-tax-collections.html?utm_source=st&utm_medium=en&utm_campaign=me&utm_content=ja&ana=e_ja_me&j=26440303&senddate=2022-01-21

Quote from: marcuscnelson on January 21, 2022, 06:16:46 PM
Interestingly the other projects include PD&E for somehow only the commuter rail station at the JRTC. I personally don't understand how you only do a PD&E for a single station on a commuter rail line that doesn't exist yet, but that seems to be the current plan.

QuoteLocal Motors, involved with JTA autonomous vehicle program, ceases operations

Just months after its CEO declared a new stage of growth, Chandler, Arizona-based Local Motors has shut down.

Multiple employees have posted about the company closing on their LinkedIn pages, though the company has not yet put out an official statement.

The news was originally reported on Jan. 12 by The Drive, a website dedicated to automotive news. Representatives from Local Motors did not immediately return a request for comment.

Chris Stoner, formerly a VP at Local Motors, wrote on his LinkedIn page that the company would shut down on Jan. 21.

"I am disheartened to announce that Local Motors will cease to exist as of January 14," Stoner wrote on Jan. 12. "The autonomous vehicle space is an exciting emerging market with plenty of opportunity. Experiencing first-hand the skill and dedication of the people I worked with, I have no doubt AVs (like Olli) are the future of transportation."

Ivan Golubic, formerly the interim CFO, also wrote about the company shutting down on his LinkedIn page.

The Olli was one of three autonomous vehicles the Jacksonville Transportation Authority was testing for its Ultimate Urban Circulator program at its Armsdale Test & Learn center in northwest Jacksonville. An EV Star that is owned by the authority and The Autonom Shuttle by French-based NAVYA are the others.

"It doesn't affect our test and learn program because we remain vehicle agnostic with the Ultimate Urban Circulator program," JTA spokesman David Cawton told the Business Journal....

https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2022/01/24/local-motors-to-cease-operations.html?utm_source=st&utm_medium=en&utm_campaign=ae&utm_content=ja&ana=e_ja_ae&j=26471796&senddate=2022-01-24

Quote"It doesn't affect our test and learn program because we remain vehicle agnostic with the Ultimate Urban Circulator program," JTA spokesman David Cawton told the Business Journal.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on January 24, 2022, 11:40:13 PM
Frankly, I don't really understand how the statement could be true.

QuoteClearly they'd taken some liking to the Olli, as it's what they put in most of the renderings (including the website redesign they just did) and what they used to show off the tires from the deal with Goodyear. I don't know about all of you, but something tells me they aren't going to use the van as their production, revenue-service autonomous shuttle. So unless they go back to the EasyMile shuttle that leaves only the Navya, or some hypothetical vehicle we haven't seen and they haven't tested. [...] I wonder what they even do with all the Olli shuttles at this point. Presumably they're useless because they won't be a production vehicle, but do you just leave it in a yard or something? Maybe cannibalize the $10,000 LIDAR sensors?

Quote.......Aundra Wallace

After five years as the DIA CEO, Wallace succeeded Jerry Mallot as JAXUSA president in October 2018.

JAXUSA is the economic development division of JAX Chamber. The DIA is responsible for governing Downtown development.

Wallace will replace JTA board member Nicole Padgett.

He will serve the remainder of her term that ends May 31, 2023.

Council member LeAnna Cumber was the sole vote against Wallace's appointment at the Council Rules Committee and at Council.

During Wallace's confirmation interview with the committee Feb. 15, Cumber said her vote was related to her opposition to the cost of JTA's Skyway modernization called the Ultimate Urban Circulator.

Cumber agreed Wallace does "great work" for the chamber and is qualified for the appointment.

But Cumber said she didn't like  Wallace's responses to questions at the committee.

He declined to support a cap to the U2C's growing cost and he did not take issue with the JTA board approval of a single-response bid to design and build the project's first phase.

"I'm going to look at the numbers. I'm going to talk to staff, and we're going to see if we got the best cost available. And we're going to make informed decisions," Wallace said.

"As a board member of JTA, we'll make that decision collectively."

The transportation authority estimates the entire 10-mile automated vehicle network will cost $379 million to $400 million.

Wallace worked in two other metropolitan areas, Detroit and Miami-Dade County, that were part of the federal pilot program for monorail "people movers" in the 1980s that funded the Downtown elevated Skyway.

Wallace was executive director of the Detroit Land Bank Authority and a senior vice president at the North Carolina Community Development Initiative.

In Miami-Dade County, he served in roles focused on community and economic development.

Wallace told the Rules Committee that he will press JTA to have a transportation network competitive with Southeastern U.S. cities including Orlando, Tampa, Nashville, Atlanta and Charlotte, North Carolina.

"Those cities have viable public transportation networks to make sure that economic development is equitable — that no matter what census tract, no matter what ZIP code you live in, you have the ability to ascertain meaningful, gainful employment and have a way to get there, even if you do not own transportation yourself," Wallace said.

Council member Aaron Bowman abstained from the vote. Bowman is JAXUSA senior vice president of business development and he reports to Wallace....

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/two-high-profile-names-return-to-city-service

Quote from: thelakelander on March 01, 2022, 07:57:10 AM
Maybe JTA can pick up all the U2C rolling stock it desires for pennies on a dollar?

Quote from: jaxoNOLE on March 01, 2022, 12:42:26 PM

Quote from: thelakelander on March 01, 2022, 07:57:10 AM
Maybe JTA can pick up all the U2C rolling stock it desires for pennies on a dollar?

Problem: Skyway rolling stock is obsolete and no longer supported by the manufacturer.
Solution: New rolling stock, also obsolete and no longer supported by the manufacturer, but that also requires massive infrastructure investment.

Sounds about right!  ;D

QuoteOur roads aren't built to accommodate autonomous vehicles

"The biggest challenge to self-driving cars is the biggest challenge to most major social changes: infrastructure. We want to integrate cool new things, but new things rely on old things. Fixing streets and signs and sidewalks paves the way to a particular vision of a cleaner, more accessible future." — Meg Leta Jones, emerging technologies researcher, to Politico

Quote from: Todd_Parker on July 06, 2022, 11:20:53 AM
Is there any possibility this project doesn't turn out to be a boondoggle?

Quote from: Steve on July 06, 2022, 08:40:32 AM
Wow. This seems......costly.

At this point wouldn't light rail be cheaper? I've never been a huge advocate for Light Rail for Jacksonville (as opposed to utilizing the existing heavy rail lines), but if you're going to blow money on this U2C thing, then wouldn't light rail make more sense?

This is one thing that Cumber and I are aligned with - this thing is bananas.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on June 23, 2022, 02:21:32 AM
I watched NOVA on PBS tonight about self driving vehicle technology - how it works and is developed, where it is currently at and what the prospects are for it (view it online at https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/look-whos-driving/ ).

Let me just say we have a good ways to go to "level 5" full autonomy and anything less than isn't all that useful for a variety of mostly safety reasons.

Some people believe we will never quite match a human driver.  At best, society will have to decide if it is worth some people dying by autonomous vehicle failures in return for such deaths being less than we currently see with human drivers as perfection on public roads in all situations is unlikely.

Left me again scratching my head about JTA's plans for open road AV's.  The show should be required viewing for JTA board members and other City officials.

Quote from: jcjohnpaint on July 06, 2022, 03:19:59 PM
I guess we all can hope Phase 1 fails miserably and we can all move on.

Quote from: thelakelander on July 06, 2022, 05:26:03 PM
We'll end up with an expensive jogging path that cost us more than LRT when this is all said and done.

QuoteThe JTA received 1,619 responses to the online survey on the Skyway future. Of those responding to the survey, 80 percent favored keeping the Skyway and expansion of the Skyway system. Nine percent preferred converting to an elevated multi-use path.

https://www.news4jax.com/news/2015/12/11/jta-board-approves-modernizing-skyway/ (https://www.news4jax.com/news/2015/12/11/jta-board-approves-modernizing-skyway/)

Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 06, 2022, 04:17:51 PM

Quote from: jcjohnpaint on July 06, 2022, 03:19:59 PM
I guess we all can hope Phase 1 fails miserably and we can all move on.

I'm worried they'll try to be tearing up monorail beams already by whenever Phase 1 is supposed to open, and we'll be put in the awful position of having to either commit to the conversion or just demolish it and pay the feds back.

Quote from: jaxoNOLE on July 06, 2022, 06:10:18 PM

Quote from: thelakelander on July 06, 2022, 05:26:03 PM
We'll end up with an expensive jogging path that cost us more than LRT when this is all said and done.

At least 9% of the population will be thrilled! ::)

QuoteThe JTA received 1,619 responses to the online survey on the Skyway future. Of those responding to the survey, 80 percent favored keeping the Skyway and expansion of the Skyway system. Nine percent preferred converting to an elevated multi-use path.

https://www.news4jax.com/news/2015/12/11/jta-board-approves-modernizing-skyway/ (https://www.news4jax.com/news/2015/12/11/jta-board-approves-modernizing-skyway/)

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 06, 2022, 06:11:54 PM

Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 06, 2022, 04:17:51 PM

Quote from: jcjohnpaint on July 06, 2022, 03:19:59 PM
I guess we all can hope Phase 1 fails miserably and we can all move on.

I'm worried they'll try to be tearing up monorail beams already by whenever Phase 1 is supposed to open, and we'll be put in the awful position of having to either commit to the conversion or just demolish it and pay the feds back.

I still think, politically, that we could get out of paying the Feds a penalty.  I believe JTA uses that as a red herring to avoid having to admit the Skyway is done for.  It was an experiment predicted boondoggle (just like U2C will be) and failed despite unrelenting support by JTA so why would the Feds be vengeful.  It's foolish to keep spending money on it just to avoid the "penalty."  Further, what JTA is proposing spending wasting big money on now is far greater than any penalty.  If the "penalty" is truly enforced, it would be cheaper to pay it than go forward with the almost sure-to-fail U2C.  The lack of a business-like approach to this project is mind blowing.

Either convert it to our version of NYC's Highline or tear it down and move on.  Enough already.

Quote from: jaxoNOLE on July 06, 2022, 06:10:18 PM

Quote from: thelakelander on July 06, 2022, 05:26:03 PM
We'll end up with an expensive jogging path that cost us more than LRT when this is all said and done.

At least 9% of the population will be thrilled! ::)

QuoteThe JTA received 1,619 responses to the online survey on the Skyway future. Of those responding to the survey, 80 percent favored keeping the Skyway and expansion of the Skyway system. Nine percent preferred converting to an elevated multi-use path.

https://www.news4jax.com/news/2015/12/11/jta-board-approves-modernizing-skyway/ (https://www.news4jax.com/news/2015/12/11/jta-board-approves-modernizing-skyway/)

Not a scientific survey so not very meaningful.  I also wonder if the "voters" were fully informed of the facts as discussed on the Jaxson: costs, technical challenges, alternative transit options, lack of ridership, questionable service levels, etc.  No way 80% would buy into JTA's plans.  JTA effectively stuffed the ballot box :).  Results would likely be flipped if the populace knew the real facts.  To add, the 80+% living in the burbs would be a big "NO" based on my life in Jax.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 06, 2022, 06:11:54 PM

Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 06, 2022, 04:17:51 PM

Quote from: jcjohnpaint on July 06, 2022, 03:19:59 PM
I guess we all can hope Phase 1 fails miserably and we can all move on.

I'm worried they'll try to be tearing up monorail beams already by whenever Phase 1 is supposed to open, and we'll be put in the awful position of having to either commit to the conversion or just demolish it and pay the feds back.

I still think, politically, that we could get out of paying the Feds a penalty.  I believe JTA uses that as a red herring to avoid having to admit the Skyway is done for.  It was an experiment predicted boondoggle (just like U2C will be) and failed despite unrelenting support by JTA so why would the Feds be vengeful.  It's foolish to keep spending money on it just to avoid the "penalty."  Further, what JTA is proposing spending wasting big money on now is far greater than any penalty.  If the "penalty" is truly enforced, it would be cheaper to pay it than go forward with the almost sure-to-fail U2C.  The lack of a business-like approach to this project is mind blowing.

QuoteEither convert it to our version of NYC's Highline or tear it down and move on.  Enough already.

Quote from: thelakelander on July 06, 2022, 07:46:02 PM

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 06, 2022, 06:11:54 PM

Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 06, 2022, 04:17:51 PM

Quote from: jcjohnpaint on July 06, 2022, 03:19:59 PM
I guess we all can hope Phase 1 fails miserably and we can all move on.

I'm worried they'll try to be tearing up monorail beams already by whenever Phase 1 is supposed to open, and we'll be put in the awful position of having to either commit to the conversion or just demolish it and pay the feds back.

I still think, politically, that we could get out of paying the Feds a penalty.  I believe JTA uses that as a red herring to avoid having to admit the Skyway is done for.  It was an experiment predicted boondoggle (just like U2C will be) and failed despite unrelenting support by JTA so why would the Feds be vengeful.  It's foolish to keep spending money on it just to avoid the "penalty."  Further, what JTA is proposing spending wasting big money on now is far greater than any penalty.  If the "penalty" is truly enforced, it would be cheaper to pay it than go forward with the almost sure-to-fail U2C.  The lack of a business-like approach to this project is mind blowing.

They can simply do nothing and not owe anyone anything.  The U2C has nothing to do with the Skyway, other than JTA trying to force it on the system.

QuoteEither convert it to our version of NYC's Highline or tear it down and move on.  Enough already.

No to the High Line in Jax. That's a bigger waste of money than the U2C. Focus on the Emerald Trail, which still needs millions to implement.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 06, 2022, 10:11:44 PM
I have no issue tearing down the Skyway but, if JTA insists on keeping the infrastructure, and pure abandonment is not an acceptable outcome, then the "cheapest" way out is to make it a "Highline."  We don't need to take funds from the Emerald Trail, just carve out a fraction of the funds already dedicated for converting the Skyway track to accommodate U2C.  Everyone walks away happy except maybe JTA and its leaching U2C contractors :).

Quote from: thelakelander on July 06, 2022, 11:58:19 PM
From my view, maintaining the Skyway infrastructure and running the thing as a transit system is no different from maintaining our streets, sidewalks and public infrastructure network. Tearing the infrastructure down due to us not knowing how to run transit or create real TOD could be just as wasteful as some of the U2C options discussed. Based off the success and failure of similar systems in various peer cities, I believe we'll get use out of that infrastructure through operating it as a transit spine (i.e. eliminate all competing bus routes and stops....and run it on the weekends) and coordinated land use policy (i.e. high density TOD) around its stations and transit feeder routes. These are things we still fail to do locally. No kind of transit will work in this town without coordinated land use policy.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 07, 2022, 12:11:00 AM
I think it's been argued plenty of times before that the Skyway is much more a symbol of failure in leadership to think about how to make downtown a usable place for people to live, work, & play while utilizing the train, so I won't go too far into that. If I recall correctly, the core problem with the Highline suggestion is that it would likely trigger the FTA payback requirements anyway. The Skyway is meant to be a transit line, not a trail. They're not likely to count whatever bicycles end up there as qualifying vehicles to avoid the payback. The infrastructure has to be used to run a transportation service, not just exist.

QuoteI still think, politically, that we could get out of paying the Feds a penalty.  I believe JTA uses that as a red herring to avoid having to admit the Skyway is done for.  It was an experiment predicted boondoggle (just like U2C will be) and failed despite unrelenting support by JTA so why would the Feds be vengeful.  It's foolish to keep spending money on it just to avoid the "penalty."  Further, what JTA is proposing spending wasting big money on now is far greater than any penalty.  If the "penalty" is truly enforced, it would be cheaper to pay it than go forward with the almost sure-to-fail U2C.  The lack of a business-like approach to this project is mind blowing.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 07, 2022, 12:22:38 AM
If I read your posts correctly, you are not advocating for the U2C to run on the Skyway tracks but, rather, you are suggesting the Skyway can continue to be operated in something approximating its current form.

QuoteMy understanding is this is not feasible due to lack of support of the current technology or other technology that can "cheaply" operate on the roughly current infrastructure.

QuoteIf I am correct, your options are reduced to U2C, Highline type use or demolition (I can't see the option of a simple abandonment in place making anyone happy).

QuoteAs I noted, if the Highline isn't feasible, U2C isn't feasible and continuing to run the Skyway isn't feasible, then, 3 strikes and tear it down :).

QuoteHelp me out here to clarify your position or what technology you think would use the current infrastructure to feasibly allow it to serve as a "transit spine."

Quote from: thelakelander on July 07, 2022, 09:35:42 AM

QuoteHelp me out here to clarify your position or what technology you think would use the current infrastructure to feasibly allow it to serve as a "transit spine."

My position: Overhaul/update the system + with logical expansion where necessary.

Technology: APM technology, which is what the current infrastructure is designed to support. Raising the infrastructure seems like a non-starter with me. Once you start getting into that, you may be better demolishing the thing and investing in a starter LRT or modern streetcar line.

Quote from: jaxoNOLE on July 07, 2022, 11:04:33 AM
I believe that the survey respondents I previously cited expected something along these lines. I think the survey was important because, whether it was representative or not, it was used as JTA's mandate of public support to retain and expand the Skyway. Then, by the time they got to the specifics of route expansion, AVs were already selected as the technology of choice.

During the LOGT public meetings, there was plenty of debate around the tax itself, but any public comment on the U2C was almost unanimous against. JTA must have known any standalone funding request for the Skyway would be tanked by public opposition--it was almost enough to bring down the LOGT.

QuoteThe total cost of this thing should be enough to be a mayoral campaign issue. Beaches residents might not care about what happens to the Skyway, but they should care about what happens to $240M of committed earmarks + whatever the future ask is going to be in their taxpayer money. Now that the LOGT is law, we don't have to argue about the tax and the Skyway at the same time.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 07, 2022, 12:11:00 AM
I think it's been argued plenty of times before that the Skyway is much more a symbol of failure in leadership to think about how to make downtown a usable place for people to live, work, & play while utilizing the train, so I won't go too far into that. If I recall correctly, the core problem with the Highline suggestion is that it would likely trigger the FTA payback requirements anyway. The Skyway is meant to be a transit line, not a trail. They're not likely to count whatever bicycles end up there as qualifying vehicles to avoid the payback. The infrastructure has to be used to run a transportation service, not just exist.

QuoteI think the most concerning thing about all this is seeing that they decided to cancel the overhaul of the existing trains and just skip to trying to bid out the PD&E for the conversion ASAP. Bids are already due next week. Hence my worry that they'll try and start tearing out beams before the road paint has dried on Bay Street and force total commitment, regardless of whether the damn thing works. Makes my head spin trying to understand the decision-making process here.

QuoteFrom my perspective, the core problem with the High Line suggestion is that the High Line is a former elevated New York Central Railroad spur. In other words, its equivalent to a FEC, NS or CSX railroad line:

QuoteBelieve it or not, the High Line was once destined for demolition. Luckily, the community rallied together to repurpose it instead, creating the park you see today, for everyone to enjoy. It has since become a global inspiration for cities to transform unused industrial zones into dynamic public spaces....

....The High Line's public prospects waxed and waned through the decades. In 1991, the five blocks of the structure from Bank to Gansevoort streets were demolished when a warehouse was converted into an apartment building. In 1999, the High Line owner CSX Transportation opened to proposals for the structure's reuse.

In the decades of disuse, many people were calling the High Line an ugly eyesore (Mayor Giuliani signed a demolition order, one of his last acts in office). But few of these critics saw what had secretly taken over the structure: a thriving garden of wild plants. Inspired by the beauty of this hidden landscape, Joshua David and Robert Hammond founded Friends of the High Line, a non-profit conservancy, to advocate for its preservation and reuse as a public space. Friends of the High Line remains the sole group responsible for maintenance and operation of the High Line (and is funded by supporters just like you).

To provoke dialogue about the High Line, in a time when its transformation into a park was not yet ensured, Friends of the High Line hosted an "ideas competition," receiving 720 ideas from over 36 countries for ways the park might be used (including ideas that were neither realistic nor practical, like a rollercoaster, or a mile-long lap pool). At the time, few people had heard of the High Line; the competition helped drive both awareness and excitement....

....Four years after CSX Transportation donated ownership of the structure to the City of New York, and three years after first breaking ground (in April 2006), the first section of the High Line opened to the public from Gansevoort to 20th streets. High Line Art was founded in 2009, and continues every year to commission and produce artworks on and around the High Line.

https://www.thehighline.org/history/

Quote from: Charles Hunter on August 11, 2022, 04:36:23 PM
Does the PD&E request include figuring out how to get the AVs from street level to the (even more) elevated track level?

QuoteRamp Design and System Integration: The ramp design should solve the requirement to connect Bay Street to the existing elevated guideway. The design should allow autonomous vehicles to travel from grade to above grade for continuous service operation to and from the superstructure and Bay Street utilizing a ramp or mechanical apparatus.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on August 11, 2022, 06:26:58 PM

Quote from: Charles Hunter on August 11, 2022, 04:36:23 PM
Does the PD&E request include figuring out how to get the AVs from street level to the (even more) elevated track level?

Yes.

QuoteRamp Design and System Integration: The ramp design should solve the requirement to connect Bay Street to the existing elevated guideway. The design should allow autonomous vehicles to travel from grade to above grade for continuous service operation to and from the superstructure and Bay Street utilizing a ramp or mechanical apparatus.

Quote from: thelakelander on August 11, 2022, 07:18:56 PM
Where exactly will the ramp be installed? Are they proposing to close Hogan Street or block street frontage at the former Sear's site? How does it integrate or accommodate the Emerald Trail? So many questions!

QuoteIn the first quarter of 2023, implementation work could begin, but the Bay Street corridor won't require major construction. Instead, work will consist of installing "cameras and antennas and lidar sensors and radar sensors at every intersection on Bay Street and throughout downtown Jacksonville," he said.

QuoteThe proposed Shipyards station along the corridor is one of the locations selected as a possible site for transit-oriented development. According to a plan posted on the JTA website, it would include a mixed-use waterfront district, a public plaza adjacent to the station and a 20-acre linear park.

Quote
Baidu is currently testing its self-driving taxis in 10 cities across the country, and it just got approval to roll out fully driverless vehicles in the major metropolises of Wuhan and Chongqing.

In the capital, Beijing, where the company is based, a human is still required by law to sit in the front passenger's seat — but they haven't got much to do.
With sensors, radars and cameras mounted all over the car, a computer is fully in charge of navigation. Advancements in technology mean the latest models cost only about $37,000 — about half as much as the previous generation. The price drop is paving the way for mass production.

The Baidu service itself offers an experience similar to ride-share apps like Uber. You download an app to your smartphone, pinpoint your location and destination, and a car shows up. The difference, at this stage, is that Baidu customers must choose from a list of existing stops, sort of like bus stops, instead of just picking any specific location they may want to reach.

Quote from: Charles Hunter on October 06, 2022, 01:18:24 PM
Paywall.

QuoteThe first car woke Jennifer King at 2 a.m. with a loud, high‑pitched hum. "It sounded like a hovercraft," she says, and that wasn't the weird part. King lives on a dead-end street at the edge of the Presidio, a 1,500-acre park in San Francisco where through traffic isn't a thing. Outside she saw a white Jaguar SUV backing out of her driveway. It had what looked like a giant fan on its roof—a laser sensor—and bore the logo of Google's driverless car division, Waymo.

She was observing what looked like a glitch in the self-driving software: The car seemed to be using her property to execute a three-point turn. This would've been no biggie, she says, if it had happened once. But dozens of Google cars began doing the exact thing, many times, every single day.

King complained to Google that the cars were driving her nuts, but the K-turns kept coming. Sometimes a few of the SUVs would show up at the same time and form a little line, like an army of zombie driver's-ed students. The whole thing went on for weeks until last October, when King called the local CBS affiliate and a news crew broadcast the scene. "It is kind of funny when you watch it," the report began. "And the neighbors are certainly noticing." Soon after, King's driveway was hers again.

Waymo disputes that its tech failed and said in a statement that its vehicles had been "obeying the same road rules that any car is required to follow." The company, like its peers in Silicon Valley and Detroit, has characterized incidents like this as isolated, potholes on the road to a steering-wheel-free future. Over the course of more than a decade, flashy demos from companies including Google, GM, Ford, Tesla, and Zoox have promised cars capable of piloting themselves through chaotic urban landscapes, on highways, and in extreme weather without any human input or oversight. The companies have suggested they're on the verge of eliminating road fatalities, rush-hour traffic, and parking lots, and of upending the $2 trillion global automotive industry.

It all sounds great until you encounter an actual robo-taxi in the wild. Which is rare: Six years after companies started offering rides in what they've called autonomous cars and almost 20 years after the first self-driving demos, there are vanishingly few such vehicles on the road. And they tend to be confined to a handful of places in the Sun Belt, because they still can't handle weather patterns trickier than Partly Cloudy. State-of-the-art robot cars also struggle with construction, animals, traffic cones, crossing guards, and what the industry calls "unprotected left turns," which most of us would call "left turns."

The industry says its Derek Zoolander problem applies only to lefts that require navigating oncoming traffic. (Great.) It's devoted enormous resources to figuring out left turns, but the work continues. Earlier this year, Cruise LLC—majority-owned by General Motors Co.—recalled all of its self-driving vehicles after one car's inability to turn left contributed to a crash in San Francisco that injured two people. Aaron McLear, a Cruise spokesman, says the recall "does not impact or change our current on-road operations." Cruise is planning to expand to Austin and Phoenix this year. "We've moved the timeline to the left for what might be the first time in AV history," McLear says.

Cruise didn't release the video of that accident, but there's an entire social media genre featuring self-driving cars that become hopelessly confused. When the results are less serious, they can be funny as hell. In one example, a Waymo car gets so flummoxed by a traffic cone that it drives away from the technician sent out to rescue it. In another, an entire fleet of modified Chevrolet Bolts show up at an intersection and simply stop, blocking traffic with a whiff of Maximum Overdrive. In a third, a Tesla drives, at very slow speed, straight into the tail of a private jet.

This, it seems, is the best the field can do after investors have bet something like $100 billion, according to a McKinsey & Co. report. While the industry's biggest names continue to project optimism, the emerging consensus is that the world of robo-taxis isn't just around the next unprotected left—that we might have to wait decades longer, or an eternity.

"It's a scam," says George Hotz, whose company Comma.ai Inc. makes a driver-assistance system similar to Tesla Inc.'s Autopilot. "These companies have squandered tens of billions of dollars." In 2018 analysts put the market value of Waymo LLC, then a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc., at $175 billion. Its most recent funding round gave the company an estimated valuation of $30 billion, roughly the same as Cruise. Aurora Innovation Inc., a startup co-founded by Chris Urmson, Google's former autonomous-vehicle chief, has lost more than 85% since last year and is now worth less than $3 billion. This September a leaked memo from Urmson summed up Aurora's cash-flow struggles and suggested it might have to sell out to a larger company. Many of the industry's most promising efforts have met the same fate in recent years, including Drive.ai, Voyage, Zoox, and Uber's self-driving division. "Long term, I think we will have autonomous vehicles that you and I can buy," says Mike Ramsey, an analyst at market researcher Gartner Inc. "But we're going to be old."

Our driverless future is starting to look so distant that even some of its most fervent believers have turned apostate. Chief among them is Anthony Levandowski, the engineer who more or less created the model for self-driving research and was, for more than a decade, the field's biggest star. Now he's running a startup that's developing autonomous trucks for industrial sites, and he says that for the foreseeable future, that's about as much complexity as any driverless vehicle will be able to handle. "You'd be hard-pressed to find another industry that's invested so many dollars in R&D and that has delivered so little," Levandowski says in an interview. "Forget about profits—what's the combined revenue of all the robo-taxi, robo-truck, robo-whatever companies? Is it a million dollars? Maybe. I think it's more like zero."

In some ways, Levandowski is about as biased a party as anyone could be. His ride on top of the driverless wave ended in ignominy, after he moved from Google to Uber Technologies Inc. and his old bosses sued the crap out of his new ones for, they said, taking proprietary research along with him. The multibillion-dollar lawsuit and federal criminal case got Levandowski fired, forced him into bankruptcy, and ended with his conviction for stealing trade secrets. He only avoided prison thanks to a presidential pardon from Donald Trump.

On the other hand, Levandowski is also acknowledged, even by his detractors, as a pioneer in the industry and the person most responsible for turning driverless cars from a science project into something approaching a business. Eighteen years ago he wowed the Pentagon with a kinda-sorta-driverless motorcycle. That project turned into Google's driverless Prius, which pushed dozens of others to start self-driving car programs. In 2017, Levandowski founded a religion called the Way of the Future, centered on the idea that AI was becoming downright godlike.

What shattered his faith? He says that in the years after his defenestration from Uber, he began to compare the industry's wild claims to what seemed like an obvious lack of progress with no obvious path forward. "It wasn't a business, it was a hobby," he says. Levandowski maintains that somebody, eventually, will figure out how to reliably get robots to turn left, and all the rest of it. "We're going to get there at some point. But we have such a long way to go."

For the companies that invested billions in the driverless future that was supposed to be around the next corner, "We'll get there when we get there" isn't an acceptable answer. The industry that grew up around Levandowski's ideas can't just reverse course like all those Google cars outside Jennifer King's bedroom. And the companies that bet it all on those ideas might very well be stuck in a dead end.

All self-driving car demos are more or less the same. You ride in the back seat and watch the steering wheel move on its own while a screen shows you what the computer is "seeing." On the display, little red or green boxes hover perfectly over every car, bike, jaywalker, stoplight, etc. you pass. All this input feels subliminal when you're driving your own car, but on a readout that looks like a mix between the POVs of the Terminator and the Predator, it's overwhelming. It makes driving feel a lot more dangerous, like something that might well be better left to machines. The car companies know this, which is why they do it. Amping up the baseline tension of a drive makes their software's screw-ups seem like less of an outlier, and the successes all the more remarkable.

One of the industry's favorite maxims is that humans are terrible drivers. This may seem intuitive to anyone who's taken the Cross Bronx Expressway home during rush hour, but it's not even close to true. Throw a top-of-the-line robot at any difficult driving task, and you'll be lucky if the robot lasts a few seconds before crapping out.

"Humans are really, really good drivers—absurdly good," Hotz says. Traffic deaths are rare, amounting to one person for every 100 million miles or so driven in the US, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Even that number makes people seem less capable than they actually are. Fatal accidents are largely caused by reckless behavior—speeding, drunks, texters, and people who fall asleep at the wheel. As a group, school bus drivers are involved in one fatal crash roughly every 500 million miles. Although most of the accidents reported by self-driving cars have been minor, the data suggest that autonomous cars have been involved in accidents more frequently than human-driven ones, with rear-end collisions being especially common. "The problem is that there isn't any test to know if a driverless car is safe to operate," says Ramsey, the Gartner analyst. "It's mostly just anecdotal."

Waymo, the market leader, said last year that it had driven more than 20 million miles over about a decade. That means its cars would have to drive an additional 25 times their total before we'd be able to say, with even a vague sense of certainty, that they cause fewer deaths than bus drivers. The comparison is likely skewed further because the company has done much of its testing in sunny California and Arizona.

For now, here's what we know: Computers can run calculations a lot faster than we can, but they still have no idea how to process many common roadway variables. People driving down a city street with a few pigeons pecking away near the median know (a) that the pigeons will fly away as the car approaches and (b) that drivers behind them also know the pigeons will scatter. Drivers know, without having to think about it, that slamming the brakes wouldn't just be unnecessary—it would be dangerous. So they maintain their speed.

What the smartest self-driving car "sees," on the other hand, is a small obstacle. It doesn't know where the obstacle came from or where it may go, only that the car is supposed to safely avoid obstacles, so it might respond by hitting the brakes. The best-case scenario is a small traffic jam, but braking suddenly could cause the next car coming down the road to rear-end it. Computers deal with their shortcomings through repetition, meaning that if you showed the same pigeon scenario to a self-driving car enough times, it might figure out how to handle it reliably. But it would likely have no idea how to deal with slightly different pigeons flying a slightly different way.

The industry uses the phrase "deep learning" to describe this process, but that makes it sound more sophisticated than it is. "What deep learning is doing is something similar to memorization," says Gary Marcus, a New York University psychology professor who studies artificial intelligence and the limits of self-driving vehicles. "It only works if the situations are sufficiently akin."

And the range of these "edge cases," as AI experts call them, is virtually infinite. Think: cars cutting across three lanes of traffic without signaling, or bicyclists doing the same, or a deer ambling alongside the shoulder, or a low-flying plane, or an eagle, or a drone. Even relatively easy driving problems turn out to contain an untold number of variations depending on weather, road conditions, and human behavior. "You think roads are pretty similar from one place to the next," Marcus says. "But the world is a complicated place. Every unprotected left is a little different."

Self-driving companies have fallen back on shortcuts. In lieu of putting more cars on the road for longer, they run simulations inside giant data centers, add those "drives" to their total mile counts, and use them to make claims about safety. Simulations might help with some well-defined scenarios such as left turns, but they can't manufacture edge cases. In the meantime the companies are relying on pesky humans for help navigating higher-order problems. All use remote operators to help vehicles that run into trouble, as well as safety drivers—"autonomous specialists," Waymo calls them—who ride inside some cars to take over if there's a problem.

To Levandowski, who rigged up his first self-driving vehicle in 2004, the most advanced driverless-car companies are all still running what amount to very sophisticated demos. And demos, as he well knows, are misleading by design. "It's an illusion," he says: For every successful demo, there might be dozens of failed ones. And whereas you only need to see a person behind the wheel for a few minutes to judge if they can drive or not, computers don't work that way. If a self-driving car successfully navigates a route, there's no guarantee it can do so the 20th time, or even the second.

In 2008, Levandowski kludged together his first self-driving Prius, which conducted what the industry widely recognizes as the first successful test of an autonomous vehicle on public streets. (The event was recorded for posterity on a Discovery Channel show called Prototype This!) Levandowski was aware of how controlled the environment was: The car was given an extremely wide berth as it made its way from downtown San Francisco across the Bay Bridge and onto Treasure Island, because there was a 16-vehicle motorcade protecting it from other cars and vice versa. The car did scrape a wall on its way off the bridge, yet he says he couldn't help but feel amazed that it had all basically worked. "You saw that, and you were like, 'OK, it's a demo and there are a lot of things to work on,' " he recalls. "But, like, we were almost there. We just needed to make it a little better."

For most of the years since he built his first "Pribot," Levandowski says, it's felt as though he and his competitors were 90% of the way to full-blown robot cars. Executives he later worked with at Google and Uber were all too happy to insist that the science was already there, that his prototypes could already handle any challenge, that all that was left was "going commercial." They threw around wild claims that investors, including the Tesla bull Cathie Wood, built into models to calculate that the industry would be worth trillions.

Once again, this was a bit of self-hypnosis, Levandowski says. The demos with the sci-fi computer vision led him and his colleagues to believe they and their computers were thinking more similarly than they really were. "You see these amazing representations of the 3D world, and you think the computer can see everything and can understand what's going to happen next," he says. "But computers are still really dumb."

In the view of Levandowski and many of the brightest minds in AI, the underlying technology isn't just a few years' worth of refinements away from a resolution. Autonomous driving, they say, needs a fundamental breakthrough that allows computers to quickly use humanlike intuition rather than learning solely by rote. That is to say, Google engineers might spend the rest of their lives puttering around San Francisco and Phoenix without showing that their technology is safer than driving the old-fashioned way.

Quote
In some ways the self-driving future seemed closest and most assured in 2017, after Levandowski went to Uber and Google sued them. Google accused Levandowski of taking a work laptop home, downloading its contents, and using that information to jump-start his work at Uber. (Although he doesn't deny the laptop part, he's long disputed that its contents found their way into anything Uber built.) The lawsuit was destabilizing but also validating in a way. Google's $1.8 billion claim for damages suggested it had done the math based on just how imminent the fortunes to be made from driverless technology were. "People were playing for this trillion-dollar prize of automating all transportation," Levandowski says. "And if you think it's really just a year away, you take the gloves off."

Uber had promised to defend Levandowski if he was sued, but it fired him in May 2017, and he faced an arbitration claim in which Google sought to recoup hundreds of millions of dollars. During the 2018 trial, with Google struggling to prove Uber had used its trade secrets, the company settled with Uber. It got about $250 million in Uber stock, a fraction of what it had initially sought, plus a promise that the ride-hailing company wouldn't use Google's driverless technology.

The fallout continued for Levandowski in 2019, when federal prosecutors announced that a grand jury had indicted him on 33 counts of trade secrets theft. Soon after, the deal his new company, Pronto.ai, had been negotiating with a truck manufacturer—to try out Pronto's more modest driver-assist feature for trucks—fell apart. "It turns out a federal indictment does cramp your style," he says. An arbitration panel also ordered him to pay Google $179 million. He stepped down as Pronto's chief executive officer, turned the company over to its chief safety officer, Robbie Miller, and declared bankruptcy. As part of a deal with prosecutors, in exchange for the dismissal of the other 32 counts, Levandowski pleaded guilty to one and was sentenced to 18 months in federal prison in August 2020. Because of the pandemic, the sentence was delayed long enough that he never served a day before his pardon, which came on the last day of the Trump presidency.

According to a White House press release at the time, the pardon's advocates included Trump megadonor Peter Thiel and a half-dozen Thiel allies, including Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters and Oculus founder Palmer Luckey. Levandowski says that he and Thiel have some mutual friends who spoke up for him but that they never talked until after the pardon was announced. He says he doesn't know why Thiel took up his cause, but Thiel's antipathy for Google is legendary, and pardoning Levandowski would've been an opportunity to stick a thumb in the company's eye. Earlier this year, Levandowski reached a settlement with Uber and Google over the $179 million judgment that will allow him to emerge from bankruptcy.

The idea that the secret to self-driving was hidden on Levandowski's laptop has come to seem less credible over time. A year after Uber fired him, one of its self-driving cars killed a pedestrian in Phoenix. (The safety driver was charged with negligent homicide and has pleaded not guilty; Uber suspended testing its cars on public roads and added additional safety measures before resuming testing. The company was never charged.) Uber sold its self-driving unit to Aurora, the now-struggling upstart, in 2020, when times were better. In September, Waymo claimed, based on the results of a simulation, that its vehicles are safer in some circumstances than humans. Back in the real world, the safety figures are much less conclusive, and Waymo is basically where it was five years ago. (Waymo disputes this.)

Levandowski says his skepticism of the industry started around 2018. It was a little more than a year after Elon Musk unveiled a demo of a Tesla driving itself to the tune of Paint It Black. Levandowski checked the official road-test data that Tesla submitted to California regulators. The figures showed that, in that time, the number of autonomous miles Tesla had driven on public roads in the state totaled—wait for it—zero. (Tesla hasn't reported any autonomous miles traveled in California since 2019. The company didn't respond to a request for comment.) Although Levandowski says he admires Tesla, is impressed by its driver-assistance technology, and believes it may one day produce a truly self-driving car, he says the lack of progress by Musk and his peers forced him to question the point of his own years in the field. "Why are we driving around, testing technology and creating additional risks, without actually delivering anything of value?" he asks.

While Tesla has argued that its current system represents a working prototype, Musk has continued to blur the lines between demos and reality. On Sept. 30 he unveiled what looked like a barely functional robot, promising it would unleash "a fundamental transformation of civilization as we know it." Six years after it began selling "full self-driving" capabilities, Tesla has yet to deliver a driverless car. Levandowski, for his part, has been spending time in gravel pits.

For more than 100 years, mining companies have been blasting rocks out of the hills near Santa Rosa, Calif., and crushing them into gravel bound for driveways, roads, and drains. Levandowski sometimes refers to Mark West Quarry, where Pronto has been operating its driverless trucks since last December, as a "sandbox," and it's easy to see why. The dusty mine features life-size versions of the Tonka toys you'd find in a child's playroom. Yellow excavators knock enormous boulders down from a terraced cliffside into the mining pit, where front-end loaders pick up the stones and place them in 50-ton dump trucks to be carried to the crusher. "An 8-year-old boy's dream," Levandowski says as the boulders rattle through the crusher, which spits the smaller pieces out onto piles.

The mine work started as a sort of backup plan—a way to bring in revenue while Pronto got trucking companies comfortable with using its driver-assistance technology in their long-haul semis. Now, Levandowski says, construction sites are Plan A. Pronto took the same basic system it had used on the semis and built it into a self-driving dump truck, adding cameras, radar, and an onboard computer. Because connectivity is spotty at mine sites, the company created its own networking technology, which it spun off as a separate company, Pollen Mobile LLC. "With mining we're doing driverless, but controlling the environment," says Pronto Chief Technology Officer Cat Culkin. BoDean Co., the company that owns Mark West Quarry, is one of a half-dozen clients that pay installation fees to retrofit dump trucks with sensors, plus hourly fees for use. Neither Levandowski nor BoDean will say how much Pronto charges or how much it's taking in.

Here's his new vision of the self-driving future: For nine-ish hours each day, two modified Bell articulated end-dumps take turns driving the 200 yards from the pit to the crusher. The road is rutted, steep, narrow, requiring the trucks to nearly scrape the cliff wall as they rattle down the roller-coaster-like grade. But it's the same exact trip every time, with no edge cases—no rush hour, no school crossings, no daredevil scooter drivers—and instead of executing an awkward multipoint turn before dumping their loads, the robot trucks back up the hill in reverse, speeding each truck's reloading. Anthony Boyle, BoDean's director of production, says the Pronto trucks save four to five hours of labor a day, freeing up drivers to take over loaders and excavators. Otherwise, he says, nothing has changed. "It's just yellow equipment doing its thing, and you stay out of its way."

Levandowski recognizes that making rock quarries a little more efficient is a bit of a comedown from his dreams of giant fleets of robotic cars. His company plans to start selling its software for long-haul trucks in 2023. And hopefully, in a few decades, all his old boasts will come true: driverless cities with cushy commutes, zero road fatalities, and totally safe road naps. But for now: "I want to do something that's real, even if that means scaling back the grandiose visions."

Quote from: thelakelander on October 06, 2022, 03:33:40 PM
Nothing in that article is surprising. We've been saying this locally for years. Don't hold your breath on that Skyway conversion actually happening or being successful anytime soon. The estimated construction and completion dates said locally, mean very little.

It has less to do with JTA's dreams and more to do with the technology simply not being there. Eventually, we'll get there but most of us will likely be dead when that day comes. We should cut our losses and get back to implementing proven mass transit alternatives.

Quote from: Ken_FSU on October 26, 2022, 08:12:37 PM
Another driverless vehicle conglomerate, this one funded by Ford and VW, has thrown in the towel, citing that driverless technology at scale is a very long way off. 

https://www.theverge.com/2022/10/26/23423998/argo-ai-shut-down-ford-vw-av-self-driving

But JTA's got this...

QuoteShortly after news broke Wednesday afternoon that its self-driving subsidiary Argo AI would be wound down, Ford CEO Jim Farley joined in on the company's Q3 earnings call and spoke at length about how senior management came to that decision. "It's estimated that more than a hundred billion has been invested in the promise of level four autonomy," he said during the call, "And yet no one has defined a profitable business model at scale."

In short, Ford is refocusing its investments away from the longer-term goal of Level 4 autonomy (that's a vehicle capable of navigating without human intervention though manual control is still an option) for the more immediate short term gains in faster L2+ and L3 autonomy. L2+ is today's state of the art, think Ford's BlueCruise or GM's SuperCruise technologies with hands-free driving along pre-mapped highway routes, L3 is where you get into the vehicle handling all safety-critical functions along those routes, not just steering and lane-keeping.

"Commercialization of L4 autonomy, at scale, is going to take much longer than we previously expected," Doug Field, chief advanced product development and technology officer at Ford, said during the call. "L2+ and L3 driver assist technologies have a larger addressable customer base, which will allow it to scale more quickly, and profitability."...

....The company didn't elaborate on a specific timeframe for when it would potentially be ready, thought Farley did stress that developing the foundational technologies needed for Level 4 will not be won quickly. "We don't expect a single 'Aha!' moment like we used to," he said....

https://www.engadget.com/ford-ceo-farley-explains-the-business-factors-behind-argo-a-is-shutering-230035350.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9uZXdzLmdvb2dsZS5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAN2M_9-TiK19SruWKcC_wCVMAqz7SPc8PlcEmjdOzHu1giq_Vn7gmyNLEDRwLMAN4qZOkWzygMKQ85xXXq6nddO6m-sge2fofZIVYWa3w7BqvNemyiG9TwlBS7k9b34c0J7KIVWM-En48QAmPsLuBdbv_0hd-wsFk8dtT1TuApZG

Quote....For Ford, the investment in Argo was proving to be a drag on the rest of the company's financed. In its third quarter earnings released Wednesday evening, the company recorded a $2.7 billion "non-cash, pretax impairment" on its investment in Argo AI, resulting in an $827 million net loss for the quarter...

....But cracks were starting to show in these multibillion-dollar companies. Argo's main rivals, Waymo and Cruise, had major leadership shake-ups. Valuations have dropped as timelines have stretched further and further out. Companies that went public by SPAC have seen their share price tumble. The costs have grown while revenues have been slow to trickle in....

https://www.theverge.com/2022/10/26/23423998/argo-ai-shut-down-ford-vw-av-self-driving

QuoteLyft has discontinued its self-driving offerings in Miami and Austin just hours after its partner, Argo AI, announced it was ceasing operations...

https://www.fastcompany.com/90802321/lyft-shutters-self-driving-service-in-miami-austin-as-argo-ai-closes-operations

Quote"We've looked at this every way that you can," Chief Financial Officer John Lawler told reporters Wednesday. "We just see the profitability, given the investment that's going to be required, a long way out."

It would take billions of dollars for Ford to put self-driving robotaxis on the streets, Lawler said, yet it wasn't clear when that would happen "in a way that would allow us to have a profitable return on that investment."

The move by Ford and VW suggests how difficult and costly it is to make self-driving cars a reality, said Guidehouse Research mobility analyst Sam Abuelsamid. The business, he said, has required big investments for years with few results, and investor appetite to sink in more money has waned.

He expects consolidation in the industry, possibly to five or six major players. "More companies are going to go under," he said. "They're just going to run out of cash runway or in some cases perhaps get absorbed by one of the bigger players."...

https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/ford-disbands-argo-ai-autonomous-vehicle-unit-posts-92150455

Quote from: fsu813 on August 20, 2022, 06:19:41 AM
Some interesting info about the Jax U2C mentioned in this article:
https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/news/jacksonville-florida-autonomous-shuttle-monorail-people-mover-transit-oriented-development/629612/

Sounds like a couple notable deadlines are quickly approaching.

QuoteSchmidt said the goal of the urban circulator is for it to become "a system that provides connectivity and interconnects our various neighborhoods." Compared with a typical 40-foot transit bus, "these vehicles represent a more nimble, agile product," he added.

QuoteJTA has tested vehicles from several different manufacturers, including Beep and Navya, as well as Local Motors, a company that shut down earlier this year. The final selection will be announced "in the next four or five months," Schmidt said.

Quote from: thelakelander on October 26, 2022, 11:16:17 PM
An operations and maintenance center on Jefferson Street?! What prime piece of LaVilla real estate are we about to mess up now?

Quote from: thelakelander on October 27, 2022, 12:21:42 AM
It wasn't always a surface parking lot. Railroad Row was one of the most vibrant places in downtown at one point. Is there the potential for it to be something more than a surface parking lot? Bounded by Jefferson, Bay and Broad, that parcel would have one of the highest traffic counts in downtown. With Riverside Avenue in Brooklyn filling up with infill commercial development, this stretch of Broad and Jefferson are the next in line.

Quote"It feels like the widespread use of autonomous driving is seven years away, and it's been seven years away for 10 years," says U.S. Department of Transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg. "So the question is, will it be seven years away 10 years from now, or will we actually be getting somewhere?"

QuoteButtigieg says: "There is a very serious danger right now in this kind of valley of death between where we started and where we're headed, where these technologies do run the risk of making things worse. Especially if people see ADAS, which is an automated driver assistance system, and treat it like a driver replacement system.

"Just to be clear, I don't care what they call these things, Autopilot or Self-Driving or whatever, there is no car that you can buy today from a dealer where you don't have to be paying attention at all times when you're driving."

Because of this jumbled messaging, consumer perception of self-driving cars is in a risky place. Buttigieg warns that we are approaching a "dangerous transition" before we reach the self-driving "promised land." If we ever make it there, he believes that self-driving tech could be an important tools that we should use to cut traffic deaths here in the U.S.

Quote from: Charles Hunter on October 27, 2022, 10:03:44 AM
I'm not sure what could be viable there. Half of the lot has the elevated Skyway tracks and the Riverside/Acosta ramps coming down to ground at Broad and Bay.

Quote
Our Mission

The Florida Automated Vehicles (FAV) Summit assembles industry leaders from around the world to address technologies, operations, and policy issues. Our mission is to gain insight into what Florida is doing to create the ideal climate for the implementation and deployment of autonomous and connected vehicle technologies.

Topics will include automated, connected, electric, and shared (ACES) mobility, operations, law, infrastructure, functional design, cyber security, ethics, aftermarket products, enabling technologies, and public policy.

QuoteJennifer Brace is a Trends and Futuring Manager at Ford where she leads discussions on long-term thinking, planning, and strategic development. By researching demographic shifts, identifying market outliers, and developing data-driven scenarios for the future, she challenges her colleagues to think through a broad range of possible narratives before settling on a plan of action. Throughout her 19-year career with Ford, she has launched multiple versions of SYNC in vehicle technology, lead user experience research projects on autonomous vehicles, and drove innovation in mobility from Greenfield Labs in Palo Alto, California. Jennifer currently resides in Plymouth, Michigan, and holds a BS in Mechanical Engineering and an MS in Engineering Management from the University of Michigan.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on November 08, 2022, 04:03:25 PM
Just in case anyone missed the mention earlier, JTA is holding two "Business Stakeholder Engagement" meetings at TIAA Bank Field's West Club tomorrow from 10am-12pm and 5pm-7pm.

https://6847720.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/6847720/U2C%2022025%20Bay%20Street%20Corridor%20Innovation%20Business%20Meeting%20Postcard.pdf

Could be helpful for those who can attend to see where the project stands at this point. There's also an overall website for the Bay Street Innovation Corridor:

https://go.jtafla.com/bsic

Quote from: thelakelander on November 09, 2022, 07:49:01 AM
I will try to make the evening meeting, after a full day's work.

Quote from: thelakelander on November 09, 2022, 11:34:43 PM
....carrying 11 seated passengers and 4 standing. The vehicles will have a maximum operating speed of 16mph, although we don't know at this point if they'll be allowed to go that fast. The system will operate in mixed traffic and there are no plans to change the configuration of the existing streets. Operating at Level 3, each vehicle will have a human attendant.

Quote from: thelakelander on November 09, 2022, 11:34:43 PM
The Bay Street Innovation Corridor a $51.1 million project that is not really related to the Skyway conversion (that's phase 2). JTA hopes to complete the 3.1 mile long Bay Street Innovation Corridor in mid 2025. It will run along Bay from Pearl Street to TIAA Bank Field. The project includes 15 NAVYA AUTONOM vehicles, carrying 11 seated passengers and 4 standing. The vehicles will have a maximum operating speed of 16mph, although we don't know at this point if they'll be allowed to go that fast. The system will operate in mixed traffic and there are no plans to change the configuration of the existing streets. Operating at Level 3, each vehicle will have a human attendant.

Much of the money will be spent on building the operations center at Jefferson and West Bay Street. The proposed building is much larger than I originally anticipated. That was probably the one thing I didn't fully pay attention to prior to the meeting. The route and general system itself is nothing that we didn't already know. It's basically running a few AVs in mixed traffic, on regular streets, sort of like the pilot system in Lake Nona (Orlando). There were no detailed plans or typicals. Just a big aerial roll plot with a line, showing the proposed route. A public meeting is planned next week at the JRTC.

Quote1) Full ADA Compliance
2) Buy America/Buy American Compliance
3) Cybersecurity
4) Remote Route Programming with Low Latency
5) NHTSA Approval to operate on Public Road
6) Vehicle to Infrastructure and V2X Capabilities (DSRC & 5G)
7) Traverse Slope of ± 12 Degrees w/ Full Passenger load (Sustained Acceleration/Deceleration)
8 ) Operate bi-directionally up to 35 MPH
9) ≥12 hours of battery life
10) Operate at speeds of 15 MPH within ± 1 foot of Stationary Object
Operate at speeds of 15 MPH within ± 3 feet of Moving Object
11) May Operate during Inclement Weather (Rain, Fog, Wind, and Extreme Heat)
12) Internal Cab – Environment control with Rapid Cool capability & Sustained temperature with Full Passenger Load
13) Ability to be towed; Push/Pull and Steer AV Manually or towed via another AV
14) Crash Worthy up to 35 MPH
15) Ability for Fast Charge/Opportunity Charging
16) Ability to regulate passenger capacity
17) System for recording/storing video for at least 30 days (Black Box)
18) Emergency button to contact Authority/Agency control center
19) Remote command & control operations of vehicles with low latency
20) Complete Vehicle Monitoring system, including health monitoring

Quote from: thelakelander on November 10, 2022, 07:58:38 AM
I do hope at some point, JTA will just upgrade the rolling stock on the Skyway. Those little old and raggedy trains need to be put out of their misery. I ride them three or four days a week and have had to deal with the experience of them breaking down a few times.

Quote from: tufsu1 on November 10, 2022, 02:55:07 PM
one more thing - what happens when Bay Street floods - check Insta post from Intuition today :)

Quote from: tufsu1 on November 10, 2022, 02:55:07 PM
one more thing - what happens when Bay Street floods - check Insta post from Intuition today :)

Quote from: tufsu1 on November 10, 2022, 02:55:07 PM
one more thing - what happens when Bay Street floods - check Insta post from Intuition today :)

Quote from: tufsu1 on November 10, 2022, 02:55:07 PM
one more thing - what happens when Bay Street floods - check Insta post from Intuition today :)

Quote
There's tons of enthusiasm over self-driving cars. But nearly twenty years and some $100 billion since the first demos, the technology just isn't there yet. In fact, it may be further off from being fully — and safely — autonomous than we're led to believe.

"You'd be hard-pressed to find another industry that's invested so many dollars in R&D and that has delivered so little," said self-driving pioneer Anthony Levandowski, in a must-read new interview with Bloomberg.

As the cofounder of Google's self-driving division, Levandowski is acknowledged by his peers as one of the key engineers that got the industry up and running

Quote
Uber and Motional, the Hyundai-Aptiv joint venture focused on commercializing self-driving technology, have launched a robotaxi service in Las Vegas — the first step in the companies' 10-year plan to co-scale across major North American cities, which was announced in October.

...

Human safety operators will be inside the vehicles at first, but Motional and Uber hope to begin driverless operations in 2023. Similar to Motional's other partnerships, the robotaxi service with Uber will initially be free while the companies collect user feedback.

https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/07/uber-and-motional-launch-robotaxi-service-in-las-vegas/?utm_placement=newsletter

Quote
In an apparent bid to drum up excitement, Motional announced that its taxis will be fully driverless by 2023 (we've heard that one before). So no more safety drivers, in other words. Somehow, less safety is the selling point here. Can they just knock off the hype bait until they have something real to show off?

Quote from: marcuscnelson on October 25, 2022, 05:40:12 PM
The Skyway Conversion RFP was canceled today.

Five days ago JTA announced they'd received two proposals from Kimley-Horn and HNTB, with Kimley-Horn ranked first, but they seem to have rejected both. It's unclear what happened. Apparently the next JTA board meeting is November 3rd, so I suppose if anything is to be explained it'll be then.

Quote
ZF unveils its next generation shuttle for autonomous driving in urban environments and mixed traffic at the 2023 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas/ Nevada, USA. The next generation complements the established model, which is primarily designed for use in segregated lanes. For the new shuttle generation ZF announces a strategic partnership with U.S. mobility services provider Beep, Inc. The agreement aims to deliver several thousand shuttles to customers over the coming years, combining ZF's ATS with Beep's mobility services and service management platform into a single-source autonomous mobility solution.

...

As further proof of its progress on the road to "Next Generation Mobility NOW", ZF is presenting a new, autonomous Level 4 Shuttle. The new shuttle complements the already established autonomous shuttle model. In the near future, ZF can offer two shuttle types – one primarily for use in segregated lanes and the new model, which will be used primarily in urban environments and in mixed traffic.

...

With selectable battery capacities between 50 and 100 kWh, the next-generation shuttle can cover up to 80 miles in pure electric mode – at a maximum speed of initially 25 mph, in further development of 50 mph. The Shuttle offers a total passenger capacity of 22 with up to 15 seated.

Quote
Tech giant Apple is giving up on full autonomy for its upcoming car and delaying the target launch date by a year to 2026, Bloomberg reports.

The company's highly secretive project, known as Titan, has been in limbo as execs started to realize that current technologies don't feasibly allow for a car that fully drives itself without a steering wheel or pedals.

QuoteAn autonomous EV with no steering wheel is hitting the road in California
If you want to ride in it, you're out of luck—unless you work for Zoox.

QuoteTesla recalls 362,758 vehicles, says Full Self-Driving Beta software may cause crashes

Tesla is voluntarily recalling 362,758 vehicles equipped with the company's experimental driver-assistance software, which is marketed as Full Self-Driving Beta or FSD Beta, in the US, according to a recall notice out Thursday. Tesla will deliver an over-the-air software update to cars to address the issues, the recall notice said.

The FSD Beta system may cause crashes by allowing the affected vehicles to: "Act unsafe around intersections, such as traveling straight through an intersection while in a turn-only lane, entering a stop sign-controlled intersection without coming to a complete stop, or proceeding into an intersection during a steady yellow traffic signal without due caution," according to a safety recall report on the website of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

The FSD Beta system may also have trouble responding appropriately "to changes in posted speed limits," the notice said...

...Tesla lets thousands of drivers try new and unfinished driver assistance features on public roads in the U.S. through FSD Beta. The technology does not make Tesla electric cars autonomous, nor safe to drive without a human at the wheel ready to brake or steer at any second — despite the brand name...

....FSD Beta can best be summarized as a host of new features that are not yet fully debugged. The main attraction is "autosteer on city streets," which lets a Tesla navigate around complex urban environments automatically, if imperfectly....

....NHTSA and Tesla communications say the system is something much simpler: a "SAE level 2 driver support feature that can provide steering and braking/acceleration support to the driver under certain operating limitations."

The safety recall report notes, "the driver is responsible for operation of the vehicle whenever the feature is engaged and must constantly supervise the feature and intervene (e.g., steer, brake or accelerate) as needed to maintain safe operation of the vehicle."

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/16/tesla-recalls-362758-vehicles-says-full-self-driving-beta-software-may-cause-crashes.html

Quote from: thelakelander on February 18, 2023, 08:20:41 AM
Hmm. Time is ticking. We're almost to March 2023 and we're not close to being ready to break ground. Reading that Action News article, I get the impression that this experiment won't be ready to go in 2025. The timeline will be pushed back again. Landing an AV factory sounds like a dream as well.

QuoteGlobal Roll-out Plans

There is a third side to the rollout triangle. There is the vehicle, there is the stack provider (Mobileye Drive) and there is the deployer like a Beep, says Kollmeier.

"Together with these three partners, we cover all the software, hardware, fleet management operations software for mobility services."

"We are looking forward to having our first production starting in the US," he says. Then the company plans a global rollout to Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

"For the time being, we are located in Michigan. The manufacturing plant will most likely be at another location. But it's not fixed yet. We expect to decide in mid-2023 which location to manufacture the vehicle in a greenfield plant."

He adds: "Our target is to go for pigmented thermoplastic bodies. Thermoplastic is a very sustainable technology and easy to maintain."

He expects vehicle production to start in 2025. After CES, the company will start hiring and then decide on a location.

"We will have industrial scale production, which means we can deliver to higher volumes. We expect pricing to be 30% cheaper than other movers which are handmade and produced in low volumes," predicts Kollmeier.

QuoteHow an autonomous train-bus hybrid could transform city transit

The U.S. is notoriously dependent on cars. Census data shows just 2% of commuters use mass rapid transit like subways, and U.S. rail projects can cost billions of dollars and take decades to complete.

"Cities all over the world have proposed light rail systems that either get greatly reduced or don't happen at all because of the expense of putting rail in the roadbed. It's highly disruptive to the business community," said Lisa Chamberlain, a communications lead for the Global Centre for Urban Transformation at the World Economic Forum. "For residents, it's very expensive."

A Chinese company has a radical new solution. It's a train-bus hybrid that runs on rubber wheels but follows a predetermined track. It's called Autonomous Rapid Transit (ART), and it's made by the CRCC, a Chinese mass transit manufacturer.

"So I went there thinking, this is going to be something hiding like a bus," said Peter Newman, Professor of Sustainability at Curtin University in Perth, Australia. "It'll look like a light rail, but it is, in fact, a bus. But when I rode it, it was dramatically different. I could find myself feeling like I was on a train."

The ART vehicle costs about $2.2 million and is estimated to cost around 1/5 the price of a traditional tram system per mile. It uses stabilizing technology like active suspension systems which help to make it steadier than a city bus.

Watch the video to see how ART works and how it could benefit U.S. cities.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/19/how-an-autonomous-train-bus-hybrid-could-transform-city-transit.html

Quote from: thelakelander on February 19, 2023, 09:47:02 PM
Doesn't sound like they are manufacturing in Michigan. This one comes off as a dream too:

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on February 19, 2023, 11:41:28 PM
By the time JTA figures out AV's, their plan could be obsolete.  Consider this concept that uses a "train" on a virtual track on conventional roads with prioritized travel.  It cost a fraction of light rail or other options to implement and is currently in use in three Chinese cites with Australia next in line to use it.  Be sure to watch the video to see it in action.

QuoteNathaniel P. Ford Sr. is an award-winning transportation expert and leading advocate for how autonomous vehicles (AV) and other advances can be used to improve the quality of life for travelers throughout the nation. His proven track record as a change-agent and visionary who embraces state-of-the-art technology and innovations has made him a highly sought after advisor, consultant, and executive coach.

QuoteOne of Ford administration's crowning achievements is developing an autonomous vehicle program centered on the JTA's Ultimate Urban Circulator (U2C). The cutting-edge innovation was in the world spotlight during the COVID pandemic when the JTA partnered with autonomous vehicle providers to transport COVID-19 tests for Florida's esteemed Mayo Clinic.

QuoteHis multimodal expertise ranges from fixed-route buses to bus rapid transit; from cable cars and trolleys to elevated people-movers; and from light rail and heavy rail to commuter passenger ferries and autonomous vehicles. His experience also extends to bridges, roadways, corridors and street infrastructure; taxi, parking and traffic management; bicycling, walkability, street safety, first/last mile ride options, public-private partnerships and transit-oriented development.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on February 18, 2023, 11:43:30 AM

Quote from: thelakelander on February 18, 2023, 08:20:41 AM
Hmm. Time is ticking. We're almost to March 2023 and we're not close to being ready to break ground. Reading that Action News article, I get the impression that this experiment won't be ready to go in 2025. The timeline will be pushed back again. Landing an AV factory sounds like a dream as well.

Dug a little further and found out that there's a reason this article only mentions one shuttle they're talking about the factory for: there's another shuttle that Beep (the operations contractor) is working with that has already announced that they intend to operate in Jacksonville, but Jacksonville already lost the chance to get the factory. That shuttle, the Holon (https://www.driveholon.com/en/operations/), is being built in Michigan where they can take advantage of the existing automotive supply chain. Notably, even with the location having already been selected, they don't expect to produce vehicles until...2025.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on February 20, 2023, 12:48:41 AM

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on February 19, 2023, 11:41:28 PM
By the time JTA figures out AV's, their plan could be obsolete.  Consider this concept that uses a "train" on a virtual track on conventional roads with prioritized travel.  It cost a fraction of light rail or other options to implement and is currently in use in three Chinese cites with Australia next in line to use it.  Be sure to watch the video to see it in action.

I saw this earlier today, and I'm pretty sure this has come up on here and other places a few times in recent years.

As interesting a concept as it is, there are multiple reasons not to use it. For one, a known problem with these is their weight, and using them over and over again (like rapid transit) on a road ends up causing big grooves that you then need to repair, or completely replace the road surface with a stronger material which increases costs. Then there's the manufacturer, CRRC; due to policies and regulations implemented by both Presidents Trump and Biden, that company can't build any new... anything in the US. Rather importantly, the ART still ends up requiring a driver to oversee things on board, so you don't actually gain the benefit of autonomous operation. Any useful operation of these requires dedicated lanes that cars can't use, which eliminates the benefit of mixed traffic operation you'd get with buses or (theoretically) other AVs.

There's a reason that despite this concept supposedly being so amazing, it's only in three Chinese cities and purportedly in the works for Australia. In the end, the goal should be providing useful and effective mass transit, not trying to jump on the next eureka grenade of an idea. We've already gone down that road.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on February 20, 2023, 11:36:29 AM

Quote from: marcuscnelson on February 20, 2023, 12:48:41 AM

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on February 19, 2023, 11:41:28 PM
By the time JTA figures out AV's, their plan could be obsolete.  Consider this concept that uses a "train" on a virtual track on conventional roads with prioritized travel.  It cost a fraction of light rail or other options to implement and is currently in use in three Chinese cites with Australia next in line to use it.  Be sure to watch the video to see it in action.

I saw this earlier today, and I'm pretty sure this has come up on here and other places a few times in recent years.

As interesting a concept as it is, there are multiple reasons not to use it. For one, a known problem with these is their weight, and using them over and over again (like rapid transit) on a road ends up causing big grooves that you then need to repair, or completely replace the road surface with a stronger material which increases costs. Then there's the manufacturer, CRRC; due to policies and regulations implemented by both Presidents Trump and Biden, that company can't build any new... anything in the US. Rather importantly, the ART still ends up requiring a driver to oversee things on board, so you don't actually gain the benefit of autonomous operation. Any useful operation of these requires dedicated lanes that cars can't use, which eliminates the benefit of mixed traffic operation you'd get with buses or (theoretically) other AVs.

There's a reason that despite this concept supposedly being so amazing, it's only in three Chinese cities and purportedly in the works for Australia. In the end, the goal should be providing useful and effective mass transit, not trying to jump on the next eureka grenade of an idea. We've already gone down that road.

The appeal is this has significant advantages over light rail, both for costs, speed of implementation and flexibility.  It is probably a given that the road bed needs to be specially laid and that it will use a travel lane (possibly replacing a parking lane in some cities), based on watching the video.  But, as it notes, light rail is much more disruptive, aside from its other limitations. 

JTA's AV's are not truly autonomous, nor is any other vehicle truly so.  So, having a driver/attendant for this is a wash with any other solution. 

And, I doubt only the Chinese can make these things.  If there is demand for this solution, I am sure others will enter the field in North America, Europe or Asia.  If you watch the video, this solution is also being advocated for parts of NYC, such as Brooklyn.

One thing is for sure, JTA's plan is far less viable and possibly more expensive when it is all said and done.  JTA is not doing light rail, autonomous anything, a bus or train, etc.  and it won't carry many passengers or operate at a decent speed.  It's just wasteful mush.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on March 21, 2023, 01:20:48 AM
Random late-night thought:

The $246 million City Council approved for the Skyway conversion was almost two years ago now. Given inflation that's... probably not sufficient anymore, right?

Just running the number through Inflation Calculator puts the current equivalent at $274 million. Is there nearly $30 million sitting around somewhere for JTA to transfer to this project?

Quote from: tufsu1 on March 22, 2023, 02:19:11 PM
^ If the project is viable, then JTA could and should get $ from FDOT and FTA. Typically local share of transit projects is 25-50%. That was our argument during the gas tax discussion....as to how local money could be reallocated from U2C to Emerald Trail.

Quote from: Jax_Developer on March 22, 2023, 10:39:49 AM

Quote from: marcuscnelson on March 21, 2023, 01:20:48 AM
Random late-night thought:

The $246 million City Council approved for the Skyway conversion was almost two years ago now. Given inflation that's... probably not sufficient anymore, right?

Just running the number through Inflation Calculator puts the current equivalent at $274 million. Is there nearly $30 million sitting around somewhere for JTA to transfer to this project?

Right.. this is one of the things in my head too. Started with $400M in like 2018-2019, now were at $2xxM in 2023.. I wouldn't bat an eye hearing this project is underfunded. Plus.. how much $$ has been spent trying to make this thing happen over the years? That number has to be pushing 8-figures by now.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 22, 2023, 03:01:09 PM
^ Hoping when a new mayor and council see all the demands for City dollars for deferred projects, they revisit the allocation to JTA for this project and kill it.  Maybe Cumber will support Deegan if she agrees to same :).

Quote from: tufsu1 on March 22, 2023, 02:19:11 PM
^ If the project is viable [...]

Quote from: tufsu1 on March 22, 2023, 02:19:11 PM
, then JTA could and should get $ from FDOT and FTA. Typically local share of transit projects is 25-50%. That was our argument during the gas tax discussion....as to how local money could be reallocated from U2C to Emerald Trail.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on March 22, 2023, 03:14:03 PM

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 22, 2023, 03:01:09 PM
^ Hoping when a new mayor and council see all the demands for City dollars for deferred projects, they revisit the allocation to JTA for this project and kill it.  Maybe Cumber will support Deegan if she agrees to same :).

I mean it's gas tax funds, so it'd still have to go to transportation projects, not just any deferred thing. But it does seem long past time to give this project a serious contextual look.

Quote from: jaxoNOLE on March 22, 2023, 03:23:30 PM

Quote from: marcuscnelson on March 22, 2023, 03:14:03 PM

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 22, 2023, 03:01:09 PM
^ Hoping when a new mayor and council see all the demands for City dollars for deferred projects, they revisit the allocation to JTA for this project and kill it.  Maybe Cumber will support Deegan if she agrees to same :).

I mean it's gas tax funds, so it'd still have to go to transportation projects, not just any deferred thing. But it does seem long past time to give this project a serious contextual look.

Even if they don't change the allocation to JTA for the gas tax money, Council could still change the project list for JTA via simple legislation, correct? Amtrak downtown, commuter rail, complete streets projects, maintaining the Skyway, etc. -- I don't think we're starved for ideas within JTA's purview that could be a better use of those funds without renegotiating the whole revenue split.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on March 22, 2023, 03:36:30 PM

Quote from: jaxoNOLE on March 22, 2023, 03:23:30 PM

Quote from: marcuscnelson on March 22, 2023, 03:14:03 PM

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 22, 2023, 03:01:09 PM
^ Hoping when a new mayor and council see all the demands for City dollars for deferred projects, they revisit the allocation to JTA for this project and kill it.  Maybe Cumber will support Deegan if she agrees to same :).

I mean it's gas tax funds, so it'd still have to go to transportation projects, not just any deferred thing. But it does seem long past time to give this project a serious contextual look.

Even if they don't change the allocation to JTA for the gas tax money, Council could still change the project list for JTA via simple legislation, correct? Amtrak downtown, commuter rail, complete streets projects, maintaining the Skyway, etc. -- I don't think we're starved for ideas within JTA's purview that could be a better use of those funds without renegotiating the whole revenue split.

Yes. There are already quite a few complete streets projects under the gas tax as it stands, but you could absolutely cut down the Skyway project to a perhaps ~$60 million rehabilitation program and then put serious money into getting commuter rail shovel-ready (if not built) and finally relocating Amtrak downtown. I proposed something (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1syWnDTiLa-fmqYftMyIQ9_6ozLMmKSXE/edit?usp=share_link&ouid=108163974407160352822&rtpof=true&sd=true) along those lines two years ago.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 22, 2023, 10:55:13 PM
^ I might add money is fungible.  If the gas tax dollars were used to pay for "transportation projects" that are already being funded by the City budget, that would free up City budget money for other needs in the City.

Is it a "transportation project" to maintain, clean and repave City streets?  Can some dollars be used to reduce any City subsidies for the Skyway, bus system, Mayport ferry, river taxi, etc.?  Could some dollars be used to complete the full Emerald Trail (a pedestrian and bike transit project) instead of using dollars from the City budget?  Or used to pay for buses used during Jaguar games?  Toward improving the cruise terminal, a boat ramp, electric vehicle stations, the Downtown scooters?  Converting Downtown streets into two ways, increasing the number of road diets, landscaping roadways, adding or repairing sidewalks, installing intelligent transportation systems or adding roundabouts in the City?  Being used as the City match for transportation grants from the State or Feds?  Basically, how much could be used to fund much of the Public Works budget for awhile?

All the mayoral candidates talked about investing in infrastructure... here is a nice chunk of change to get that going.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on March 22, 2023, 10:55:13 PM
^ I might add money is fungible.  If the gas tax dollars were used to pay for "transportation projects" that are already being funded by the City budget, that would free up City budget money for other needs in the City.

Is it a "transportation project" to maintain, clean and repave City streets?  Can some dollars be used to reduce any City subsidies for the Skyway, bus system, Mayport ferry, river taxi, etc.?  Could some dollars be used to complete the full Emerald Trail (a pedestrian and bike transit project) instead of using dollars from the City budget?  Or used to pay for buses used during Jaguar games?  Toward improving the cruise terminal, a boat ramp, electric vehicle stations, the Downtown scooters?  Converting Downtown streets into two ways, increasing the number of road diets, landscaping roadways, adding or repairing sidewalks, installing intelligent transportation systems or adding roundabouts in the City?  Being used as the City match for transportation grants from the State or Feds?  Basically, how much could be used to fund much of the Public Works budget for awhile?

All the mayoral candidates talked about investing in infrastructure... here is a nice chunk of change to get that going.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on March 29, 2023, 09:47:42 PM
Beep (one of the contractors for the U2C) is partnering with the North Carolina Department of Transportation on another pilot program.

https://www.masstransitmag.com/alt-mobility/autonomous-vehicles/press-release/53028825/beep-beep-partnering-with-ncdot-to-expand-ncdots-cassi-program

But of course, autonomous driving is totally ready for prime time and it is very responsible to spend over $300 million in taxpayer money on it.

Quote from: fsu813 on March 30, 2023, 05:39:52 PM
Was in a meeting with Ford and Schmidt today. They are still saying phase 1 in 2025. Asked about why it's important for JTA to be on the bleeding edge on this, with all the challenges that come with that. Answer: if not us, who?

Quote from: fsu813 on March 30, 2023, 05:39:52 PM
Was in a meeting with Ford and Schmidt today. They are still saying phase 1 in 2025. Asked about why it's important for JTA to be on the bleeding edge on this, with all the challenges that come with that. Answer: if not us, who?

Quote from: thelakelander on March 31, 2023, 06:46:04 AM
The only thing they can possibly do by 2025 (better hurry), is run a couple of AVs on an existing street. Basically a pilot project like what has being running in Lake Nona for years. However, it's a stretch to consider that as real mass transit.

Quote from: fsu813 on March 31, 2023, 11:20:36 AM
I think the project/system once fully functional will be an effective tool in moving people around part of the urban core, and eventually the full urban core. But fully functional is well over a decade away. So, not unlike the original Skyway, we'll be using an incomplete system/service for many years (before the tech and $ is I'm place to see the full version functional, hopefully).

Quote from: fsu813 on March 30, 2023, 05:39:52 PM
Was in a meeting with Ford and Schmidt today. They are still saying phase 1 in 2025. Asked about why it's important for JTA to be on the bleeding edge on this, with all the challenges that come with that. Answer: if not us, who?

Quote
Nat Ford •  Transportation Innovator and Leader. Enhancing mobility in Jacksonville, Florida as the CEO of the Jacksonville Transportation Authority. Transportation Innovator and Leader.

JTA and JAXUSA Partnership - Aundra Wallace spent time at Lake Nona, FL at Beep, Inc. headquarters talking with HOLON leadership about the automated shuttle that could soon be running the streets of Jacksonville.  HOLON's people mover is the world's first autonomous mover built to automotive standards. They designed these vehicles with the JTA project in mind and JTA has been identified as a leading agency to put these vehicles on the street in the U.S.  This multi-billion dollar international firm is one of two counting on the success of the Bay Street Innovation Corridor. Now, we need to collectively address the need for advanced manufacturing facilities in the U.S. to build the vehicle.  Take an exclusive look at the vehicle prototypes at https://bit.ly/jta-av


Steve Kuciemba Deputy Executive Director/CTO at ITE
Continuing to lead the way forward, JTA is doing it right! Can't wait to see this play out and put all the doubters to rest.



Eric Brimm  Manager of Communication Systems Equipment Maintenance & Computer Maintenance - Office of Rail Car Maintenance at MARTA (Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority)
Congrats JTA Team...Leading the way with newest transit horizon.



Mark Dundovich  Public Transit and Municipal Consultant
JTA is leading the industry with your guidance,
Congratulations

Quote from: thelakelander on March 31, 2023, 04:40:05 PM
The skyway is already driverless or automated. To move large sums of people (assuming we're planning for a vibrant downtown with thousands of more people), we'll need something with larger rolling stock and dedicated ROW. Right now, we're going in the opposite direction. Really, what's proposed on Bay Street is more of a gimmick. Great, in terms of testing or being an experiment for operation in real life conditions. There's not much it can be outside of that, without hundreds of millions in totally retrofitting what's planned. To be real mass transit, a system will have to be designed to accommodate larger rolling stock and adequate infrastructure to support it. What's planned now, will always be restricted on this end if the instance is to use the existing elevated Skyway structure or mix with on-street human controlled vehicles. It's a situation where we can't squeeze blood out of a turnip. No matter how innovative we want to be.

Quote from: simms3 on March 31, 2023, 06:59:34 PM

Quote from: fsu813 on March 30, 2023, 05:39:52 PM
Was in a meeting with Ford and Schmidt today. They are still saying phase 1 in 2025. Asked about why it's important for JTA to be on the bleeding edge on this, with all the challenges that come with that. Answer: if not us, who?

It's INSANE to me that with limited funds for public transit and obviously limited public political will (see implementation of transit in any sunbelt city, and even see taxpayer fatigue with Second Ave subway in NYC), that they are choosing to go with this stupid thing.

Good freakin' luck getting taxpayers to foot the bill for rail when we want it, and when the obvious to the rest of us becomes obvious to the people actually leading our transportation authority now.

I have recently read the TOD bill passed last October.  They are calling BRT premium and fixed and trying to figure out a way to create TOD overlays around existing JTA version of BRT ("dedicated lanes").  There are a few people I have interacted with in the real estate/development and law communities who seem new to the term TOD.  Not only that, JTA will be calling the shots on creating the TOD overlays.  They will essentially be master planning now around their version of "transit".

I have to say, they have really stepped up our bus system over the years and I do see more and more people riding it.  But I don't have any faith in them to successfully do anything beyond what they've done.

This is just where Jax is at right now, very far behind other cities.  And running the opposite direction with Nat Ford at the helm steering us down the "path NOT traveled [for a reason]".  I will bite my tongue further as I see Nat Ford at an event coming up and maybe he will be reassuring...I'm so cynical at this point.  Jax is so amateur hour

Quote from: thelakelander on March 31, 2023, 11:08:51 PM
Good luck! I'm over the self promotion stuff with untested predictions in this city at this point. Been there, done that. I predict by December, the estimated 2025 completion date will change to 2026 or 2027 and that these driverless vehicles will actually have......drivers. Just a modern, more expensive and slower moving version of Ocklawaha's dreaded PCTs!

Quote from: Jax_Developer on April 01, 2023, 03:24:10 PM
Just to add more icing on the cake to all of this, JAX actually seems well positioned for a small expansion of the transit system. Brooklyn, the Sports District, San Marco proper, and Springfield could all benefit greatly from having connectivity to the Skyway tracks & an overall system. (Plus all of the ROW that seems to already exist?)

Seems from my novice understanding that the tracks could be transitioned to a base floor grade, reducing expansion costs for like a light rail system? The tracks are something like 11' wide? I agree with the lakelander on the capacity issues with the U2C. Why invest so much cost into something that has less capacity, mostly drives in regular traffic, and makes erratic stops... I don't understand personally.

I feel like three things that would be game changers for JAX transit would be:

1). Brightline extends service to DT Jax (Amtrak maybe moves too)
2). Expanded transit system to growing, already dense neighborhoods, allowing true TOD zoning to actually be implemented
3). DT Jax to St. Aug commuter rail

I have to imagine $300M with other state & national gov't matches would go a long way in getting some of these things done. It sounds way too good to be true listing it out.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on April 02, 2023, 02:25:20 PM
^ I have come to the conclusion we are spending a dollar to save a dime.  Tail wagging the dog.  Give up on the whole Skyway project and start with a clean slate.  As long as the Skyway stands, it seems someone is trying to make it into something it will never be or succeed at.  Time to cut bait and move on.  Pure silliness to keep a discussion going about saving the Skyway.

For the investment in the U2C or any other Skyway based solution we could do so much better.  Not to mention avoiding a public relations black eye for mass transit in the City.  It's also a major distraction and energy drainer from working on much better options.

Quote from: thelakelander on April 02, 2023, 01:29:10 PM
Getting down to grade is easy, as long as you're willing to drop to grade at Rosa Parks/FSCJ, San Marco (once over the FEC) or in Brooklyn.  Part of the bad planning is attempting to force a route down Bay Street to work, in order to get to the stadium. Another part of questionable transit planning is forcing the Skyway to be something it isn't. It was designed to be an urban circulator that would be fed riders from a regional LRT or commuter rail system. Perhaps the Skyway should be the Skyway and a completely different (yet complimentary) rapid transit system should be built? It's just really unfortunate that we force ourselves into illogical boxes that ultimately end up with us failing and wasting hundreds of millions in the process.

Another issue with the existing monorail is that the elevated infrastructure can only support a certain amount of weight. So options like LRT or Modern Streetcar won't work. However, an upgraded APM, historic streetcar or modern tram could be viable and less expensive than what AVs are turning out to be. Unfortunately, it's AVs or bust for JTA.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on April 02, 2023, 03:30:50 PM
With the benefit of hindsight, I think the evidence shows that downtown isn't really strong enough to demand a circulator for that role by itself. It could be if we tried, but it isn't.

QuoteI wonder, if we had the chance to do it all over, if it'd make more sense to have more of a regional transit line (whether LRT or commuter rail or something else) that runs through downtown instead of being solely within it.

QuoteAnyway, since we're talking about what already exists, I think going to the stadium makes enough sense, especially if you actually do anything at all about a convention center and get passenger rail back downtown. Making it possible to ride a train into downtown and then transfer to the Skyway for a day in the Stadium District isn't that out there.

QuoteBut in theory you should want something capable of high capacity for that, not the smallest form of "transportation" possible. At the end of the day, it does seem to be agreed-upon here that we're long past the point where starting over makes sense, but the challenge then is actually making that reality.

QuoteIt's also notable that in the Transit Concept and Alternatives Review for the Skyway Conversion, JTA included the First Coast Flyer as being the feeder for the U2C. But then again, if they're only running the Flyer every half hour at best it probably isn't going to be as capable of doing that. In theory it'd probably make some more sense to use some of the hundreds of millions they're proposing for the 2.5 miles of Skyway/U2C to get the Flyer back to the frequencies they promised (especially when that's nearly twice what the entire 58-mile Flyer cost to build) but then again, I don't run a transit agency.

Quote from: thelakelander on April 02, 2023, 04:56:38 PM

Quote from: marcuscnelson on April 02, 2023, 03:30:50 PM
With the benefit of hindsight, I think the evidence shows that downtown isn't really strong enough to demand a circulator for that role by itself. It could be if we tried, but it isn't.

It or anything else they do will never work if the same planning mistakes are repeated over and over again. A circulator of any kind isn't going to work without something to feed it with transit riders, being directly linked to congested pedestrian centers of activity (i.e. medical centers, colleges, stadiums, etc.) and a real effort to build density around all transit stations. Jax has never done this with the Skyway, so no one should expect success, no matter the promises and attempts at various gimmicks being labeled as innovative.

The best thing I like about an expansion of Amtrak or Brightline to include Jax is that these entities won't rely on Jax agencies to do the planning and implementation. That alone, increases their chances at success, while Jax benefits from rail investments made back in the 19th century.

Quote

QuoteI wonder, if we had the chance to do it all over, if it'd make more sense to have more of a regional transit line (whether LRT or commuter rail or something else) that runs through downtown instead of being solely within it.

The problem isn't the transit technology. It's literally everything else that has also turned downtown into a scene that looks like a bombed World War II zone. I've used the Skyway, quite often over the years. It's been real convenient. However, that's only because my offices have generally been within close walking distance of existing stops.

QuoteAnyway, since we're talking about what already exists, I think going to the stadium makes enough sense, especially if you actually do anything at all about a convention center and get passenger rail back downtown. Making it possible to ride a train into downtown and then transfer to the Skyway for a day in the Stadium District isn't that out there.

This was the original plan, along with connections to the medical centers. If it were built as originally planned, it would be a lot more used than it is today. No doubt about that. It would have also been elevated through downtown along Bay Street. However, that "elevated" ship has sailed. There's no local appetite for it and it's super expensive. Nevertheless, dropping it down to grade at Hogan Street doesn't make sense unless the community is willing to live with the Hogan Street intersection being permanently closed. So from a planning perspective, given the current environment (political and built) and the infrastructure in place, that potential extension (or ramp down to grade level) is best suited elsewhere. Forcing it at Hogan and Bay, given the constraints, only leaves us with crazier ideas like making elevators and/or escalators for AVs. Something totally expensive that immediately becomes obsolete as soon as vehicle sizes increase.

QuoteBut in theory you should want something capable of high capacity for that, not the smallest form of "transportation" possible. At the end of the day, it does seem to be agreed-upon here that we're long past the point where starting over makes sense, but the challenge then is actually making that reality.

Capacity isn't an issue if left as an APM or converted into a tram or heritage streetcar system. While I'm happy to hear that they are now looking at 22 passenger vehicles instead of 12, capacity is only an issue with this current AV option.

Quote

QuoteIt's also notable that in the Transit Concept and Alternatives Review for the Skyway Conversion, JTA included the First Coast Flyer as being the feeder for the U2C. But then again, if they're only running the Flyer every half hour at best it probably isn't going to be as capable of doing that. In theory it'd probably make some more sense to use some of the hundreds of millions they're proposing for the 2.5 miles of Skyway/U2C to get the Flyer back to the frequencies they promised (especially when that's nearly twice what the entire 58-mile Flyer cost to build) but then again, I don't run a transit agency.

Any idea why they are running at 30 minute headways at peak? I was under the impression that they had to run 10-15 minutes during AM/PM Peak hours.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on April 02, 2023, 06:20:55 PM
What you say about Amtrak and Brightline is true in theory, but generally not in practice. Both railroads, save for the largest cities like New York, Chicago, and Miami (and even then sometimes still) usually expect the municipalities to step up in developing modern stations. Boca Raton chased down a multimillion dollar federal grant for their Brightline station, while it took tons of effort by activists in Tampa to reactivate their Amtrak station. This isn't to say that there's no scenario in which they'd do it themselves, but odds are they won't unless they really have to. This seems especially true when extending to Jacksonville would require a pretty arduous build from Cocoa for Brightline or constructing all the baggage and crew base and train servicing space Amtrak would want to justify moving, in a building owned by the city.

QuoteAll true, I'm more suggesting that perhaps it would have been easier to build a useful transit network even in downtown's state with technology that wasn't dependent on fully grade-separated rights of way. Say, if instead of peoplemovers we'd decided to build a streetcar in the 90s or 2000s. It's mostly besides the point at this point, but just a thought.

I wonder how the "platooning" feature they kept raving about is going now.  ;D

QuotePresumably it's either lack of operational funding or lack of drivers. But I don't think they've returned to those initially promised frequencies since 2020 at least. Leaves me wondering how the Green Line TOD Study (https://www.jaxconnects.com/pages/about-new) (also federally funded) is supposed to be successful when the transit line it's based around is so infrequent.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on April 05, 2023, 12:06:22 PM
^ I decided to look at the current TOD code (https://library.municode.com/fl/jacksonville/codes/code_of_ordinances?nodeId=ZOSE_CH656ZOCO_PT14TRORDE) because of this and good lord.

This is based on legislation that passed last year and it requires JTA to propose a TOD designation, create a "TOD master plan," identify a "TOD area," assign a "TOD typology," and then develop a "vision and implementation strategy" for the TOD. That's all "phase one." Then they have to "codify the development principles identified in the TOD master plan through the establishment of the TOD zoning overlay for property located within the TOD master plan area."

Included within that process are requirements for "pre-application charettes," a "pre-application conference," an "authorization to file an application" and an "application for Establishment." And it looks like they're supposed to do this for every single TOD site? How? How could it even be worthwhile to file for this? How long does this take?

More importantly, how can we justify spending a million dollars a pop on TOD studies for the Green Line or commuter rail or U2C when that's the process any TOD is supposed to go through?

Quote from: thelakelander on April 05, 2023, 03:28:13 PM
Interesting. If someone acquired property and built "real" TOD adjacent to an existing Skyway stop, would it not be considered TOD because it isn't in JTA's TOD designation or follow a process of pre-application charettes?

Quote from: Jax_Developer on April 05, 2023, 03:38:05 PM

Quote from: thelakelander on April 05, 2023, 03:28:13 PM
Interesting. If someone acquired property and built "real" TOD adjacent to an existing Skyway stop, would it not be considered TOD because it isn't in JTA's TOD designation or follow a process of pre-application charettes?

No, because a true TOD is not hindered by the crazy development costs that are associated with provided structured parking. The Artea is the closest attempt at trying to be a "TOD" and they are marketing it as a "TOD" but for the purposes of our discussion what we are advocating for or highlighting is the lack of the zoning overlay in town. The overlay significantly eases planning restrictions that directly relate to costs. The Artea would have even less parking if it had the TOD overlay. But of course JTA needs to approve the overlay. So it is a weird predicament.

The benefit of the TOD is the up-zoning and ease on the planning code by giving a concentrated area higher use. Spotted TOD developments prevent the true effect a TOD overlay is intended to provide.

Quote from: thelakelander on April 05, 2023, 03:52:06 PM

Quote from: Jax_Developer on April 05, 2023, 03:38:05 PM

Quote from: thelakelander on April 05, 2023, 03:28:13 PM
Interesting. If someone acquired property and built "real" TOD adjacent to an existing Skyway stop, would it not be considered TOD because it isn't in JTA's TOD designation or follow a process of pre-application charettes?

No, because a true TOD is not hindered by the crazy development costs that are associated with provided structured parking. The Artea is the closest attempt at trying to be a "TOD" and they are marketing it as a "TOD" but for the purposes of our discussion what we are advocating for or highlighting is the lack of the zoning overlay in town. The overlay significantly eases planning restrictions that directly relate to costs. The Artea would have even less parking if it had the TOD overlay. But of course JTA needs to approve the overlay. So it is a weird predicament.

The benefit of the TOD is the up-zoning and ease on the planning code by giving a concentrated area higher use. Spotted TOD developments prevent the true effect a TOD overlay is intended to provide.

Oh, I know what real TOD is. I just think this TOD Overlay thing is pure nonsense. The entire city needs a complete zoning overhaul.

Quote from: Jax_Developer on April 06, 2023, 08:56:04 AM

Quote from: thelakelander on April 05, 2023, 03:52:06 PM

Quote from: Jax_Developer on April 05, 2023, 03:38:05 PM

Quote from: thelakelander on April 05, 2023, 03:28:13 PM
Interesting. If someone acquired property and built "real" TOD adjacent to an existing Skyway stop, would it not be considered TOD because it isn't in JTA's TOD designation or follow a process of pre-application charettes?

No, because a true TOD is not hindered by the crazy development costs that are associated with provided structured parking. The Artea is the closest attempt at trying to be a "TOD" and they are marketing it as a "TOD" but for the purposes of our discussion what we are advocating for or highlighting is the lack of the zoning overlay in town. The overlay significantly eases planning restrictions that directly relate to costs. The Artea would have even less parking if it had the TOD overlay. But of course JTA needs to approve the overlay. So it is a weird predicament.

The benefit of the TOD is the up-zoning and ease on the planning code by giving a concentrated area higher use. Spotted TOD developments prevent the true effect a TOD overlay is intended to provide.

Oh, I know what real TOD is. I just think this TOD Overlay thing is pure nonsense. The entire city needs a complete zoning overhaul.

I totally agree. We have a pretty simple code and I believe that is the core of the issue for such a wide city. Nonetheless, these already ordinance'd overlays would tremendously help the affordable housing issue and transit use. COJ planning & JTA would be able to knock off 10% or so of the unit price for these projects. Translates to several million per project. The city really needs to put the overlay into use.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on April 06, 2023, 12:19:47 PM

Quote from: Jax_Developer on April 06, 2023, 08:56:04 AM

Quote from: thelakelander on April 05, 2023, 03:52:06 PM

Quote from: Jax_Developer on April 05, 2023, 03:38:05 PM

Quote from: thelakelander on April 05, 2023, 03:28:13 PM
Interesting. If someone acquired property and built "real" TOD adjacent to an existing Skyway stop, would it not be considered TOD because it isn't in JTA's TOD designation or follow a process of pre-application charettes?

No, because a true TOD is not hindered by the crazy development costs that are associated with provided structured parking. The Artea is the closest attempt at trying to be a "TOD" and they are marketing it as a "TOD" but for the purposes of our discussion what we are advocating for or highlighting is the lack of the zoning overlay in town. The overlay significantly eases planning restrictions that directly relate to costs. The Artea would have even less parking if it had the TOD overlay. But of course JTA needs to approve the overlay. So it is a weird predicament.

The benefit of the TOD is the up-zoning and ease on the planning code by giving a concentrated area higher use. Spotted TOD developments prevent the true effect a TOD overlay is intended to provide.

Oh, I know what real TOD is. I just think this TOD Overlay thing is pure nonsense. The entire city needs a complete zoning overhaul.

I totally agree. We have a pretty simple code and I believe that is the core of the issue for such a wide city. Nonetheless, these already ordinance'd overlays would tremendously help the affordable housing issue and transit use. COJ planning & JTA would be able to knock off 10% or so of the unit price for these projects. Translates to several million per project. The city really needs to put the overlay into use.

Although JTA owns the Artea property it's unclear if it counts as TOD. I'm not aware of it having undergone all of this process, I think it just used the existing CCBD zoning instead of rezoning as a TOD.

What I don't get is that the TOD requirements as written defeat the whole goal of making it easier to build around transit. Something is very wrong if it's easier to build 320 apartments (https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2023/mar/27/corner-lot-subsidiary-seeks-75-million-tax-refund-for-320-unit-avion-apartments/) with city incentives on the outside of the beltway near an Amazon fulfillment center than directly adjacent to a Skyway or Flyer station. There's no way it makes financial sense for the city or JTA keep spending a million dollars on a study to say someone can build a TOD here when every parcel requires adding most of a year to any interested party's development process. This isn't NYC where that might be worth your time and the money spent to have lawyers work through that.

It should be easier to build dense, mixed use development at transit stations than anywhere else in the city. Anything else defeats the point of TOD being a thing.

I'd actually argue that our code isn't as simple as it could be. We've somehow come up with a lot of ways to ultimately produce tons of car-only sprawl that gives essentially zero consideration to any other way to travel places, that extracts enormous amounts of our city's wealth while leaving little to nothing to show for it. A review of that should consider where we want people to live, work, and play (in terms of preservation and resiliency), how they can get between those places (with current and near-future transportation options inside and outside the Beltway), and how we can build in a way that ensures our prosperity. From there, you can talk about aesthetic variables for particular neighborhoods like Riverside or San Marco or Springfield or Mandarin or Eastside.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on April 06, 2023, 03:10:17 PM
^ Interesting discussion about TOD, overlays, land use, zoning, etc.  Assuming Jax had a coherent and thoughtful vision and plan for the City, which it clearly doesn't, I wonder if any of this would make any real difference in Jax as the City waives so much of these "rules" to please the development of the day.  Let's face it, without some greater discipline, all of these things amount to mostly paper tigers.

Add that we don't have a durable "transit" vision/plan (which might require the non-existent City vision/plan as a prerequisite) that one can rely on being followed, not sure who would feel comfortable incorporating much value for a TOD today that might not be one tomorrow. 

Good luck making progress.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on April 06, 2023, 03:10:17 PM
^ Interesting discussion about TOD, overlays, land use, zoning, etc.  Assuming Jax had a coherent and thoughtful vision and plan for the City, which it clearly doesn't, I wonder if any of this would make any real difference in Jax as the City waives so much of these "rules" to please the development of the day.  Let's face it, without some greater discipline, all of these things amount to mostly paper tigers.

Add that we don't have a durable "transit" vision/plan (which might require the non-existent City vision/plan as a prerequisite) that one can rely on being followed, not sure who would feel comfortable incorporating much value for a TOD today that might not be one tomorrow. 

Good luck making progress.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on April 06, 2023, 03:35:38 PM
To get back on topic a little, I happened to do some research the other day and learned that Orlando actually has a similar-ish project to the Bay Street Innovation Corridor.

The year after Jacksonville, Orlando was awarded a BUILD Grant (same as us) for a "Local Alternative Mobility Network" led by, surprise, Beep (the same company operating the shuttles as part of the U2C).

They have a whole proposal (https://metroplanorlando.org/wp-content/uploads/Lake-Nona-Mobility-Grant-Application-2019.pdf) (without appendices, sorry) and won $20 million (https://www.lakenona.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/191112_LN_PRBUILDGrantAnnouncement_FINAL.pdf) but it's unclear if they've actually started on their project either.

Lot of money went to these shuttles 4 and 5 years ago but it doesn't look much like it's produced a whole lot of what's been promised.

Quote from: Jax_Developer on April 06, 2023, 06:39:22 PM
I think these two posts blend together the issue well. There isn't a greater development vision with the U2C, and there are more people with concerns than believers in the sustainability of the U2C for the next 10-20 years.. let alone the delivery dates projected out. It all wraps together in my opinion.

Quote from: thelakelander on April 06, 2023, 06:57:36 PM
Other than the U2C being in an urban environment, what will be different for the rider that they haven't been able to do in Lake Nona (suburban Orlando) for years already?

Quote from: marcuscnelson on April 07, 2023, 11:57:28 AM

It will have cost $60 million instead of whatever they've already spent in Lake Nona? I guess theoretically the larger shuttles but those don't actually exist yet as a usable thing so I don't know.

Quote... Really, aside from the Tesla Vegas Loop and the Heathrow Loop at the Heathrow Airport, at least I haven't seen any tangible results from this personal transit thing. I do recall something similar occurring with Jacksonville, but they themselves have also yet to come up with any tangible proof of concept that these pods can not only be efficient, but also reduce traffic. ...

Quote from: thelakelander on May 08, 2023, 09:51:12 AM
That's the dilemma with deciding routes and selected technologies too early in the process. This type of technology isn't going to be embraced in mixed traffic. It also isn't going to work, as the challenges with autonomous vehicles operating in a real urban environment have not been overcome internationally.

Like other forms of transit, dedicated ROW/lanes, etc. are better. However, removal of parking on Bay Street would be detrimental to downtown businesses and property owners. If it were me, I'd slow down a bit and take a little time to vet a solution, mode and route that limits the negatives for all impacted.

Quote from: thelakelander on May 08, 2023, 10:02:12 AM
Yeah, removing all the parallel parking for seldom used AVs would be a disaster for the entertainment and dining district. They'd be better off attempting to remove a travel lane off Bay and Forsyth. It would still be a tight fit with challenges though.

Quote
DDRB 2021-013 Modification
May 11, 2023
Page 9

RECOMMENDATION
Based on the foregoing, the Downtown Development Review Board Staff recommends
APPROVAL of MODIFICATIONS to application 2021-013, as follows:
1. Modifications shall be substantially similar to those provided within the application submittal
dated April 17, 2023.
2. Any approvals granted by the DDRB do not constitute approval of modifications to the
Redevelopment Agreement.
3. Conditions upon which the Final Approval was issued remain in effect:
(A) There are multiple plans affecting the project's interaction with Gator Bowl Boulevard,
including the realignment of Gator Bowl Boulevard, and the JTA autonomous vehicle
lane configuration currently under design. Consequently, the development's northern
boundary, including ingress and egress from Gator Bowl Boulevard, are not finalized.
Staff recommends that the developer continue to coordinate their design with the City's
Traffic Engineer, the DIA, and Public Works;
(B) Continue to work with staff on the selection of the street furnishings including the
proposed street lights.
4. Staff recommends additional landscaping, or a similar treatment, be added to the walls of
the project that abut Metropolitan Park and the Riverwalk along the residential section of the building.

Quote from: tufsu1 on May 08, 2023, 12:26:56 PM

Quote from: thelakelander on May 08, 2023, 10:02:12 AM
Yeah, removing all the parallel parking for seldom used AVs would be a disaster for the entertainment and dining district. They'd be better off attempting to remove a travel lane off Bay and Forsyth. It would still be a tight fit with challenges though.

they asked and FDOT/COJ said no

Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 08, 2023, 12:38:59 PM
When looking at the McCoys Landing application in the DDRB agenda (better zoom-in control), I saw this in the staff recommendation for a request to modify the Four Seasons development:

Quote
DDRB 2021-013 Modification
May 11, 2023
Page 9

RECOMMENDATION
Based on the foregoing, the Downtown Development Review Board Staff recommends
APPROVAL of MODIFICATIONS to application 2021-013, as follows:
1. Modifications shall be substantially similar to those provided within the application submittal
dated April 17, 2023.
2. Any approvals granted by the DDRB do not constitute approval of modifications to the
Redevelopment Agreement.
3. Conditions upon which the Final Approval was issued remain in effect:
(A) There are multiple plans affecting the project's interaction with Gator Bowl Boulevard,
including the realignment of Gator Bowl Boulevard, and the JTA autonomous vehicle
lane configuration currently under design. Consequently, the development's northern
boundary, including ingress and egress from Gator Bowl Boulevard, are not finalized.
Staff recommends that the developer continue to coordinate their design with the City's
Traffic Engineer, the DIA, and Public Works;
(B) Continue to work with staff on the selection of the street furnishings including the
proposed street lights.
4. Staff recommends additional landscaping, or a similar treatment, be added to the walls of
the project that abut Metropolitan Park and the Riverwalk along the residential section of the building.

Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 08, 2023, 12:38:59 PM
Yes, the access points are bit crazy, considering the half done Hart Bridge Expressway demo job and placement of those expressway ramps at APR. This development really needs a service drive with one main signalized access point, on the east side of the property. I'm not sure how that would change the overall site plan at this point to Bay Street.

Quote
1.01 APTA Racial Equity Commitment Program
Participate in the Pilot Racial Equity Commitment Program to advance diversity, inclusion, and equity by implementing the principles recommended by the American Public Transportation Association (APTA) to initiate a comprehensive racial equity action plan. This strategy addresses APTA's first principle of equity by reconfirming the JTA's commitment to advancing racial equity. The remaining four principles are addressed as tactics.

Quote
Develop affordable housing options for operators as a way to attract and retain talent. JTA would provide 20 units of subsidized workforce
housing. Program can be implemented initially as a housing subsidy but over the long-run JTA may have the opportunity to develop housing as
part of future TOD.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on May 16, 2023, 11:27:15 PM
Hoping Deegan takes on U2C early in her administration and frees up $400 million immediately and millions more inevitably in the future for some worthwhile infrastructure projects, not this boondoggle.  She can change out the JTA board if they don't play along.  Remember what Curry did to his boards when he became mayor?

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on May 16, 2023, 11:27:15 PM
Hoping Deegan takes on U2C early in her administration and frees up $400 million immediately and millions more inevitably in the future for some worthwhile infrastructure projects, not this boondoggle.  She can change out the JTA board if they don't play along.  Remember what Curry did to his boards when he became mayor?

Quote from: Jax_Developer on May 17, 2023, 09:21:23 AM

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on May 16, 2023, 11:27:15 PM
Hoping Deegan takes on U2C early in her administration and frees up $400 million immediately and millions more inevitably in the future for some worthwhile infrastructure projects, not this boondoggle.  She can change out the JTA board if they don't play along.  Remember what Curry did to his boards when he became mayor?

I spoke to the new head of the U2C program. He's a nice guy.. but lacked some background on the whole thing of course being new to it. He did tell me that the U2C "is 100% happening" and there is basically no way to stop the Bay St conversion at this point. I did ask, how they will determine weather to do the skyway conversion and the later phases, and there really wasn't a metric of any kind.. just a funding question. Which is concerning imo..

The big elephant in the room is the supplier. They have to be US-based, and there are no US-based companies anymore. The only other markets that produce EV's are Germany & Eastern China.. which means just Germany for our case. That's a limited pool, and a tough ask to both the federal govt, and for a company to expand to the US from Germany. I guess they are coming to the end of the timeline for that waiver process, and if that is denied.. well this entire program could be shut down. I do feel like they will likely be granted that waiver though..

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 17, 2023, 10:38:01 AM

Quote from: Jax_Developer on May 17, 2023, 09:21:23 AM

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on May 16, 2023, 11:27:15 PM
Hoping Deegan takes on U2C early in her administration and frees up $400 million immediately and millions more inevitably in the future for some worthwhile infrastructure projects, not this boondoggle.  She can change out the JTA board if they don't play along.  Remember what Curry did to his boards when he became mayor?

I spoke to the new head of the U2C program. He's a nice guy.. but lacked some background on the whole thing of course being new to it. He did tell me that the U2C "is 100% happening" and there is basically no way to stop the Bay St conversion at this point. I did ask, how they will determine weather to do the skyway conversion and the later phases, and there really wasn't a metric of any kind.. just a funding question. Which is concerning imo..

The big elephant in the room is the supplier. They have to be US-based, and there are no US-based companies anymore. The only other markets that produce EV's are Germany & Eastern China.. which means just Germany for our case. That's a limited pool, and a tough ask to both the federal govt, and for a company to expand to the US from Germany. I guess they are coming to the end of the timeline for that waiver process, and if that is denied.. well this entire program could be shut down. I do feel like they will likely be granted that waiver though..

New head? Is he replacing Bernard Schmidt or Angie Williams?

I do think he's right that Bay Street is locked in at this point. But City Council could decide tomorrow (or July 1st) to revise the Jobs for Jax project list and move the $250m to other projects for JTA to implement, just like they did with the Emerald Trail.

However, I do wonder, if the FTA were to deny the waiver, would they then allow the AV element to be abandoned or replaced with more of a BRT element? Or would they withdraw the grant entirely if it turned out the project wasn't feasible?

And another thing, I think it'd be a really good idea for some of the folks here with a lot of experience or interest in transportation here to prepare some kind of outreach from a transportation policy standpoint that might be useful for the administration. With how much Deegan talked about the federal grant money we'd been leaving on the table and the infrastructure bill being such a limited opportunity I think it'd be helpful to provide some context.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 17, 2023, 10:38:01 AM

Quote from: Jax_Developer on May 17, 2023, 09:21:23 AM

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on May 16, 2023, 11:27:15 PM
Hoping Deegan takes on U2C early in her administration and frees up $400 million immediately and millions more inevitably in the future for some worthwhile infrastructure projects, not this boondoggle.  She can change out the JTA board if they don't play along.  Remember what Curry did to his boards when he became mayor?

I spoke to the new head of the U2C program. He's a nice guy.. but lacked some background on the whole thing of course being new to it. He did tell me that the U2C "is 100% happening" and there is basically no way to stop the Bay St conversion at this point. I did ask, how they will determine weather to do the skyway conversion and the later phases, and there really wasn't a metric of any kind.. just a funding question. Which is concerning imo..

The big elephant in the room is the supplier. They have to be US-based, and there are no US-based companies anymore. The only other markets that produce EV's are Germany & Eastern China.. which means just Germany for our case. That's a limited pool, and a tough ask to both the federal govt, and for a company to expand to the US from Germany. I guess they are coming to the end of the timeline for that waiver process, and if that is denied.. well this entire program could be shut down. I do feel like they will likely be granted that waiver though..

And another thing, I think it'd be a really good idea for some of the folks here with a lot of experience or interest in transportation here to prepare some kind of outreach from a transportation policy standpoint that might be useful for the administration. With how much Deegan talked about the federal grant money we'd been leaving on the table and the infrastructure bill being such a limited opportunity I think it'd be helpful to provide some context.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 31, 2023, 07:31:16 PM
Spent today at JTA's National Autonomous Vehicle Day (https://go.jtafla.com/navday23) event. You can see a live stream of much of the day's events here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WnVLNaynfPI).

Unsurprisingly, they are incredibly confident about what they are building. Nat Ford was unable to attend due to being in Spain, but Project Manager Angie Williams says that they will be running autonomous shuttles on Bay Street by June of 2025. Specifically June. They are apparently also soon unveiling a new domestically manufactured shuttle that it appears is intended to be ready in time for that opening date. They would not specify which manufacturer.

I took a moment to ask, right about here (https://www.youtube.com/live/WnVLNaynfPI?feature=share&t=19486), about what's being done to ensure that we are not going to repeat the previous history of the Skyway in terms of ending up stuck with somewhat of a dead-end technology because of an initial excitement about its promise. You can see their response for yourself.

I found what I saw today similar to what I saw at that same facility two years ago: a lot of potentially promising experiments and elements and very excited people, but a lot of outstanding questions as to not only whether this technology is ready for revenue passenger service but also why it is Jacksonville's responsibility to be the first to attempt to spend substantial public funds to try and find out. There were still plenty of bugs with the vehicles they showed off today, with software issues causing display problems on the new Holon shuttle and the EV Star van's tablet having to reboot, which resulted in a long wait and a rebuke by JTA staff at my mention to an NJ Transit employee of the cost escalations over the last two years on the Bay Street corridor alone (from $44 million in 2021 to $50 million in 2022 and now $57 million in 2023). JTA doesn't appear to be dissuaded by any of the issues they've previously encountered. I guess we'll get to see the outcome of that.

QuoteIn May 2021, City Council dedicated $247 million from the local option gas tax increase that JTA will use for U2C second phase.

Schmidt said the final cost of the conversion "will be a little north" of the amount appropriated by the city.

Quote from: Jax_Developer on July 10, 2023, 02:48:17 PM
https://www.ford.com/commercial-trucks/e-transit/

This will be the final product when it comes crunch time for the grants.

Quote
Grumpy Locals Are Sabotaging Cruise and Waymo Robotaxis With Traffic Cones

Think of it like a dunce cap, but for a car.

A group going by the name "Safe Street Rebel" is fed up with what they perceive to be driverless nuisances. Members have verbally protested against services like Cruise and Waymo from operating in the San Francisco area, but with both companies pushing to further their permitted operating ground, the Safe Street Rebel group has gotten a bit creative with the way that it protests: by disabling the vehicles from driving using traffic cones.
"All you need is a cone and an empty AV," writes the group on Twitter. "Gently place the cone on the hood—you just created a unicorn and temporary traffic calming!"

https://www.thedrive.com/news/rebels-are-disabling-waymo-cruise-robotaxis-with-traffic-cones

Quote from: Jax_Developer on July 11, 2023, 08:41:04 AM
https://u2c.jtafla.com/

If you goto the Vehicle spec section, you'll see a van they have customized haha so for the right amount of $$ they can get the passenger version. So far the ford vehicle is the only one that meets the grant criteria of being US made.

Quote from: edjax on July 11, 2023, 05:32:42 PM
To me it all points towards new leadership is needed at JTA

Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 12, 2023, 11:21:08 AM

Quote from: edjax on July 11, 2023, 05:32:42 PM
To me it all points towards new leadership is needed at JTA

If I remember right, Mayor Deegan won't get to appoint a new board member until ~2025, unless they resign prior.

They can direct, via their position on the TPO Board, to pull the U2C from the regional transportation plans and reposition other transit projects in its place. Maybe Nat Ford will threaten to resign over being stripped of his baby but I can't say I still see that as a problem.

Quote from: Charles Hunter on July 12, 2023, 11:48:30 AM
Interestingly, I didn't see on the JTA website the appointment dates of, or who appointed, all of the members. This information is there for 2 or 3, but not all 6 (excluding the FDOT District Secretary, who is there by virtue of their position).

Quote from: thelakelander on June 25, 2023, 10:41:00 AM
Good video. Great points made. Jax's leaders should be strapped to a chair and forced to watch.

QuoteBernard Schmidt resigns as JTA automation and innovation vice president
Schmidt's responsibilities at JTA included supervising the authority's Armsdale Test & Learn Facility, where the authority operates and tests prototype automated vehicles expected to replace the aging Downtown elevated Skyway monorail system.

He also was one of JTA's lead executives to procure and coordinate design/build services for the U2C, which could be a $400 million project.

Schmidt's $278,491 annual salary was the second-highest-paid employee at JTA next to Ford.

Quote from: Captain Zissou on July 12, 2023, 05:24:41 PM

QuoteBernard Schmidt resigns as JTA automation and innovation vice president
Schmidt's responsibilities at JTA included supervising the authority's Armsdale Test & Learn Facility, where the authority operates and tests prototype automated vehicles expected to replace the aging Downtown elevated Skyway monorail system.

He also was one of JTA's lead executives to procure and coordinate design/build services for the U2C, which could be a $400 million project.

Schmidt's $278,491 annual salary was the second-highest-paid employee at JTA next to Ford.

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2023/jul/12/bernard-schmidt-resigns-as-jta-automation-and-innovation-vice-president/

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 12, 2023, 06:12:50 PM
Some possibilities:

Protecting his professional reputation by getting off a sinking ship?  Really, how is this project ever going to be successful?  It will give a black eye to anyone associated with it before it is over. 

Maybe he saw how the scandal at JEA brought down its senior management employees and knows this might be a scandal of another sort in due course  ;D.

Alternatively, maybe the Deegan administration has wised up to this boondoggle and is sending a vibe to JTA that it is up for a major review as to its future.  He could then be reading the tea leaves.

Based on his alleged role, I wonder how JTA continues this project, at least for now.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 12, 2023, 06:58:57 PM

I just don't think the fire is there for there to be a JEA-esque scandal here. This has certainly been poor management in my opinion, but I wouldn't say it rises to the level of fraud that happened at JEA.

Quote from: thelakelander on July 13, 2023, 10:31:05 AM
From my understanding, JTA is well represented on the infrastructure committees. I'm sure they are lobbying for more power and support for their initiatives.

Quote from: Jax_Developer on July 13, 2023, 12:10:40 AM

Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 12, 2023, 06:58:57 PM

I just don't think the fire is there for there to be a JEA-esque scandal here. This has certainly been poor management in my opinion, but I wouldn't say it rises to the level of fraud that happened at JEA.

I would argue, in a more loose interpretation of fraud, that there has been fraud and shady dealings behind the scenes. I don't mean to come across in such a harsh manner, but I grew up with the high hopes that AV's bring so I get it. There are very public figures, like Elon Musk, that have gone into immense details on his struggles, literally inviting someone to figure it out for "humanity." Yet, here we are several years later with really not a ton progress since 2018 ish with AV technology... a trillion dollar company having issues achieving that last hurdle.. hmmmmmmm. The technologies being used for AV have been on the market for decades.. it's making it all come together at nearly 100% efficiency which has proven to be super complex.

How I'll connect this to a loose interpretation of fraud is how they have wasted time, energy and a ton of money pursuing something they have zero knowledge in. I know we have transportation planners here, and I honestly could look any of you in the eye and strongly argue that your background gives you almost 0 relevant knowledge to tackle AV's other than the transit elements involved. Why has JTA not put a single ounce of effort towards bringing in an actual expert? It just doesn't make any sense.. no AV experts, no image sensing experts.. nah just lawyers, bankers, and transit planners.

JTA knows that their solution, is actually not a solution deep down. They know.. Nat Ford's entire career is riding on this. Maybe not a JEA-level scandal, but I'd argue that there are messages hidden out there that incriminate the executive leadership poorly. Again, how can you be spending hundreds of millions of dollars on a project without a single person that has a technical background? That's like spending hundreds of millions on new park space without a civil or landscape architect consulting on it.. I've NEVER seen that in my world, and to me that amounts to fraud, to a lesser degree.

Fraud: "a person or thing intended to deceive others, typically by unjustifiably claiming or being credited with accomplishments or qualities"

That last part sure does remind me of JTA's leadership.

Quote from: thelakelander on July 13, 2023, 10:31:05 AM
From my understanding, JTA is well represented on the infrastructure committees. I'm sure they are lobbying for more power and support for their initiatives.

Quote from: Charles Hunter on July 12, 2023, 12:12:23 PM
Watching the WJXT noon news and a promo for JTA's periodic "Making Moves" program came on - they will be highlighting their recent "AV Day" - WJXT at 12:30 PM today (Wednesday, 7/12).

Quote

QuoteNew circulator service a step forward in St. Augustine's mobility strategy

Asking St. Augustine Mayor Nancy Sikes-Kline how long the city has been working to establish a downtown circulator service is asking her to strain her memory.

The free shuttle service has been a component of the city's mobility strategy for years, and it even came to fruition for a short stint more than 15 years ago.

But with the help of the Florida Department of Transportation, the STAR downtown circulator has become a reality as part of the city's overall mobility strategy to make the busiest areas more accessible and less congested with vehicles....

....The STAR buses started taking passengers on the 1.1-mile route more than a week ago, but city officials had a ceremony for the start of service on Friday morning.

There are two buses that operate from the Visitor Information Center near the parking garage and stop at Avenida Menendez near the Castillo de San Marcos and again at Cathedral Place, then back to the VIC. The shuttles will operate from 10 a.m. to 10 p.m. seven days a week — with slight alterations around special events. The shuttles run about every 15 minutes....

.....The city has contracted with Old Town Trolley Tours to operate the new service, but it is completely separate from the ticketed tour service it offers that goes all over the city.

Sikes-Kline said the business community has welcomed the circulator service and hopes that it gets visitors to explore more parts of the city, knowing they don't have to walk the entire journey.

"If you're beginning your trip at the garage, then it's giving you the opportunity to feel rested enough ... to get to the Plaza and venture deeper into the city because there's so much to offer there, too," she said, adding that people parked near Cathedral Place can ride the other direction and visit Uptown San Marco businesses.

Although the current FDOT grant will pay for three years of the bus service, city officials are hopeful that funding will be extended....

https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2023/07/21/new-circulator-service.html?utm_source=st&utm_medium=en&utm_campaign=me&utm_content=JA&ana=e_JA_me&j=32171214&senddate=2023-07-24

Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 24, 2023, 03:35:43 PM
I mean, STAR is certainly better than nothing but I think comparing it to Jacksonville as an advantage is missing the point somewhat. The Skyway (which is also free) runs longer and more frequently each day, even if it only runs 5 days a week (and during special events), while also being more than twice the distance and including a river crossing. There's a reason people endorsed "Keep, Modernize, and Expand" back in 2015.[

Not to mention that St. Augustine recently also received a federal grant (from the same program JTA took advantage of) to add "smart technologies" that the TPO has expressly stated is part of future accommodations for autonomous vehicles. From reading their Mobility Plan (https://www.citystaug.com/DocumentCenter/View/5343/Mobility-Plan-and-Mobility-Fee-Technical-Report?bidId=) the real goal is to eventually build a gondola system between West King and east of the Bridge of Lions, with autonomous circulators replacing the shuttle buses.

QuoteAlso, if I recall correctly, JTA was running trolleys around Downtown and Riverside and the beaches for years already at one point, although I'm not sure those are still operating. Doesn't make the U2C a good idea but it doesn't mean STAR is some brilliant move no one's ever thought of before. I wonder what the odds are that St. Augustine is actually going to take real steps to encourage people to ride it instead of continuing to drive into and around the city.

Quote from: Charles Hunter on July 24, 2023, 04:43:24 PM
At one time, JTA had three downtown shuttle-bus (and later "trolley" - still buses, but looked like trolleys) routes. They connected the core - what was then Hemming Park - to (initially) parking lots on Liberty at State/Union, the Southbank, and 5-Points. They were intended as precursors to the Skyway. As I recall, they had a nominal fare (25 cents) when the regular bus fare was 60 cents. At one point, they extended the Southbank service to the San Marco shopping area, but could not maintain a schedule due to the RR crossings.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 26, 2023, 11:12:23 AM
Uh... did anyone notice that French autonomous vehicle company (and JTA supplier) Navya went bankrupt this year?

They entered receivership back in February and the French commercial court ruled in April that the company would be liquidated (https://www.navya.tech/en/navya-announces-the-partial-takeover-of-its-activities-by-gaussin-and-its-delisting-as-a-result-of-its-judicial-liquidation/) and its assets sold to another company, Gaussin (https://www.gaussin.com/), for just 1.4 million euros. Word is (https://twitter.com/NW_Horadam/status/1684019876770226176?s=20) the FTA isn't as interested in funding building AVs in particular now as they were a couple years ago.

So that's now the second U2C supplier to collapse, after Local Motors. Sounds like a stunning sign of financial confidence in the autonomous vehicle industry.

Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 26, 2023, 04:26:39 PM
The Atlanta autonomous shuttle is now running... the manufacturer is... Beep.  The shuttle will be called " The Cumberland Hopper ".

https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2023/07/25/driverless-shuttle-launches-cumberland/

https://ridebeep.com/

Quote from: Todd_Parker on July 26, 2023, 04:52:56 PM
"The CID invested $400,000 in the Cumberland Hopper pilot program."

https://www.masstransitmag.com/alt-mobility/autonomous-vehicles/news/53067186/ga-what-we-learned-aboard-cumberlands-free-selfdriving-bus (https://www.masstransitmag.com/alt-mobility/autonomous-vehicles/news/53067186/ga-what-we-learned-aboard-cumberlands-free-selfdriving-bus)

Meanwhile, how much is Jacksonville on the hook (so far) for their autonomous car program? And when will that program be on the streets? This decade?

Quote from: Jax_Developer on July 26, 2023, 05:46:33 PM
Yes, hence why I think it's safe to say we are deciding color schemes on the Ford EV right now.

Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 26, 2023, 04:26:39 PM
The Atlanta autonomous shuttle is now running... the manufacturer is... Beep.  The shuttle will be called " The Cumberland Hopper ".

https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2023/07/25/driverless-shuttle-launches-cumberland/

https://ridebeep.com/

Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 26, 2023, 06:04:20 PM
In unrelated news, one thing I've been curious about for a little while now is that on JTA's website with U2C Documentation (https://www.jtafla.com/move2027/ultimate-urban-circulator/u2c-documentation/), they include a letter from the FTA (https://www.jtafla.com/media/hntobchc/fta-letter-skyway-useful-life-response-october-10-2019.pdf) regarding the remaining FTA obligation in Skyway vehicles, including a $1.6 million payback requirement to relieve federal interest in the trains. However, we've never seen the version of this letter about the Skyway's infrastructure, the cost of which I recall being a major part of the argument for why the U2C was the only feasible option to continue the infrastructure through the end of its useful life, which therefore meant we had to spend $246 million (or more, now) converting it into the road for autonomous vehicles. There were at one point claims by JTA that demolishing the Skyway could require anything between 40 to 50 million to be repaid to the FTA to the entire original federal contribution to the construction of the Skyway. But for the life of me, I don't believe we've ever seen anything from the FTA to back that up. I wonder why that is.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 26, 2023, 06:04:20 PM

Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 26, 2023, 04:26:39 PM
The Atlanta autonomous shuttle is now running... the manufacturer is... Beep.  The shuttle will be called " The Cumberland Hopper ".

https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2023/07/25/driverless-shuttle-launches-cumberland/

https://ridebeep.com/

Beep isn't a manufacturer. Their actual job in theory is to be a transit agency for places without transit agencies (such as master planned developments, college or medical campuses, places of that nature), but specifically for autonomous shuttles. So you (as the municipality, or developer/CDD, or BID) give them a contract to design, provide vehicles for and then operate a shuttle route, whereas you would normally have a transit agency design, provide buses and drivers for and then operate a bus route.

The vehicles are supposed to be manufactured by other companies, like Local Motors or Navya. But those companies have now gone bankrupt so they're either in a similar position to JTA in the early 2010s and having to figure out how to keep maintaining vehicles that are now out of production, or scrambling to find other companies (like ZF and Holon) to get them new vehicles on some reasonable timeline. Of course there's no way they're currently profitable right now so they have to do all this while interest rates continue to rise, constraining new VC money to fund operations and development while their costs continue to escalate.

So that leaves Beep two options until the technology works well enough to remove the attendants and have a consistent, high-quality vehicle that lets them reduce costs (whenever that happens):

1) Keep finding enough master planned developments and agencies willing to hand them few hundred thousand dollars at a time to run "pilots," or

2) Find a gullible enough, future-obsessed enough transit agency willing to hand them millions, potentially tens of millions of dollars to operate a shuttle route.

I wonder who that would be.

Quote from: Todd_Parker on July 26, 2023, 04:52:56 PM
"The CID invested $400,000 in the Cumberland Hopper pilot program."

https://www.masstransitmag.com/alt-mobility/autonomous-vehicles/news/53067186/ga-what-we-learned-aboard-cumberlands-free-selfdriving-bus (https://www.masstransitmag.com/alt-mobility/autonomous-vehicles/news/53067186/ga-what-we-learned-aboard-cumberlands-free-selfdriving-bus)

Meanwhile, how much is Jacksonville on the hook (so far) for their autonomous car program? And when will that program be on the streets? This decade?

It's unclear, because they won't just tell laypeople that, get upset when you mention the known capital cost overruns, and City Council isn't curious enough about their $430+ million transit project to make them answer. JTA's most recent budget for FY23 (https://www.jtafla.com/media/ldfjvu0b/fy23-budget_jta-variance-package_coj.pdf) shows $4.5 million for U2C Planning (presumably a result of the RAISE planning grant) as part of the bus capital budget, but there's no mention of the U2C by name in the FY22 budget, while the FY20 (https://www.jtafla.com/media/mszpdhtq/fy20-budget_jta-variance-package_coj.pdf) budget shows $29.1 million in federal, state, and JTA funding for the Bay Street Innovation Corridor.

FY21 (https://www.jtafla.com/media/hobkwfzl/fy21-budget_jta-variance-package_coj.pdf) curiously mentions that under the Corporate budget, "Services is based on the expected need for the Automation department's continued progress in the testing and design phases related to" the U2C and Bay Street. That year, the Services budget went up by about $1 million compared to the previous year. But the next year (https://www.jtafla.com/media/0gvffzim/fy22-budget_jta-variance-package_coj.pdf), that part of the budget says "Services for Automation department were moved to Bus Division" and shows a $1.4 million decrease there, while at the same time the Bus Division budget shows a nearly $5 million increase (over 30%) in Services.

So... who knows how much they've spent, really? Maybe they don't even know. Their most recent insistence is that vehicles will be operating on Bay Street by June of 2025, while the Bay Street Innovation Corridor website says the program will be complete by December 2025, which I believe is when the BUILD grant requires it be complete.

Quote from: Jax_Developer on July 26, 2023, 05:46:33 PM
Yes, hence why I think it's safe to say we are deciding color schemes on the Ford EV right now.

I'm still not convinced they'll let it be that, but I suppose we're being forced to see.

In unrelated news, one thing I've been curious about for a little while now is that on JTA's website with U2C Documentation (https://www.jtafla.com/move2027/ultimate-urban-circulator/u2c-documentation/), they include a letter from the FTA (https://www.jtafla.com/media/hntobchc/fta-letter-skyway-useful-life-response-october-10-2019.pdf) regarding the remaining FTA obligation in Skyway vehicles, including a $1.6 million payback requirement to relieve federal interest in the trains. However, we've never seen the version of this letter about the Skyway's infrastructure, the cost of which I recall being a major part of the argument for why the U2C was the only feasible option to continue the infrastructure through the end of its useful life, which therefore meant we had to spend $246 million (or more, now) converting it into the road for autonomous vehicles. There were at one point claims by JTA that demolishing the Skyway could require anything between 40 to 50 million to be repaid to the FTA to the entire original federal contribution to the construction of the Skyway. But for the life of me, I don't believe we've ever seen anything from the FTA to back that up. I wonder why that is.

Quote

• The inflection point when these agencies began to chart a path towards an autonomous vehicle deployment.
• The community needs and challenges they're trying to solve.
• The possible benefits regarding safety, sustainability, and technology. 
• Regulatory issues and the historic opportunity for the U.S. to lead in the advancement and deployment of autonomous vehicles.
• Updates on the innovative projects across the nation.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 26, 2023, 07:28:35 PM

Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 26, 2023, 06:04:20 PM
In unrelated news, one thing I've been curious about for a little while now is that on JTA's website with U2C Documentation (https://www.jtafla.com/move2027/ultimate-urban-circulator/u2c-documentation/), they include a letter from the FTA (https://www.jtafla.com/media/hntobchc/fta-letter-skyway-useful-life-response-october-10-2019.pdf) regarding the remaining FTA obligation in Skyway vehicles, including a $1.6 million payback requirement to relieve federal interest in the trains. However, we've never seen the version of this letter about the Skyway's infrastructure, the cost of which I recall being a major part of the argument for why the U2C was the only feasible option to continue the infrastructure through the end of its useful life, which therefore meant we had to spend $246 million (or more, now) converting it into the road for autonomous vehicles. There were at one point claims by JTA that demolishing the Skyway could require anything between 40 to 50 million to be repaid to the FTA to the entire original federal contribution to the construction of the Skyway. But for the life of me, I don't believe we've ever seen anything from the FTA to back that up. I wonder why that is.

This.

I, and other, have repeatedly made the point that the supposed repayment to the Feds for killing the Skyway is (1) a red herring and totally overplayed, (2) could likely be forgiven if we asked nicely, especially since the Skyway was always an "experimental"/prototype/demonstration project or (3) would be cheaper to pay than to continue operating and investing in the damn thing.

JTA conveniently uses this excuse to justify soaking up ever increasing dollars from gullible City officials so they can pay JTA executives and consultants handsomely for managing a "major" project.  I suggest asking anyone on the City Council if they have personally reviewed the payback scheme JTA alludes to.  Perhaps the hapless Council should pay big bucks to a consultant to handle that for them like the stadium deal  8).

Quote from: marcuscnelson on August 04, 2023, 12:59:14 PM

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 26, 2023, 07:28:35 PM

Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 26, 2023, 06:04:20 PM
In unrelated news, one thing I've been curious about for a little while now is that on JTA's website with U2C Documentation (https://www.jtafla.com/move2027/ultimate-urban-circulator/u2c-documentation/), they include a letter from the FTA (https://www.jtafla.com/media/hntobchc/fta-letter-skyway-useful-life-response-october-10-2019.pdf) regarding the remaining FTA obligation in Skyway vehicles, including a $1.6 million payback requirement to relieve federal interest in the trains. However, we've never seen the version of this letter about the Skyway's infrastructure, the cost of which I recall being a major part of the argument for why the U2C was the only feasible option to continue the infrastructure through the end of its useful life, which therefore meant we had to spend $246 million (or more, now) converting it into the road for autonomous vehicles. There were at one point claims by JTA that demolishing the Skyway could require anything between 40 to 50 million to be repaid to the FTA to the entire original federal contribution to the construction of the Skyway. But for the life of me, I don't believe we've ever seen anything from the FTA to back that up. I wonder why that is.

This.

I, and other, have repeatedly made the point that the supposed repayment to the Feds for killing the Skyway is (1) a red herring and totally overplayed, (2) could likely be forgiven if we asked nicely, especially since the Skyway was always an "experimental"/prototype/demonstration project or (3) would be cheaper to pay than to continue operating and investing in the damn thing.

JTA conveniently uses this excuse to justify soaking up ever increasing dollars from gullible City officials so they can pay JTA executives and consultants handsomely for managing a "major" project.  I suggest asking anyone on the City Council if they have personally reviewed the payback scheme JTA alludes to.  Perhaps the hapless Council should pay big bucks to a consultant to handle that for them like the stadium deal  8).

I was curious enough to finally put in a public records request about this. It took JTA about a week and a half, but they have produced two letters from the FTA dated October 16, 2015 and April 20, 2021. Unfortunately, they might actually be (mostly) right here. Here are the letters (https://drive.google.com/file/d/18pZfzW175uNPYHUxxmdMcZ-0anf5-lyT/view?usp=share_link).

Now my read of this is that the full federal payback would amount to about $100 million (although I'm not sure if that would have to then account for inflation since the 90s), so whether that is still cheaper is questionable, but it does appear that there is at least some indication that the FTA told JTA they would require repayment.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on August 07, 2023, 12:47:14 PM
New article in Mass Transit Magazine about the need for autonomous vehicles to be used for more practical services that fit its niche and not rushed to implementation for the sake of innovation. Includes a quote from Daisy Wall at May Mobility, who also spoke at JTA's Autonomous Vehicle Day event.

https://www.masstransitmag.com/alt-mobility/autonomous-vehicles/news/53068288/us-use-case-should-outweigh-innovation-with-av-shuttles

Re: the letters, it seems the first letter lines up with the Skyway Modernization Program studies, where the final option emerged as "Keep, Modernize, Expand" while the second is from just before the gas tax increase vote. I've said before that while obviously JTA chased a bad idea, the FTA has a remarkable degree of culpability in endorsing and funding bad ideas, between the original people mover program, BRT over rail, and now autonomous vehicles.

I think it's not quite too late to change course and do something more practical but it'd require heroic leadership from the city that I'm not convinced is going to come in time.

QuoteRe: the letters, it seems the first letter lines up with the Skyway Modernization Program studies, where the final option emerged as "Keep, Modernize, Expand" while the second is from just before the gas tax increase vote. I've said before that while obviously JTA chased a bad idea, the FTA has a remarkable degree of culpability in endorsing and funding bad ideas, between the original people mover program, BRT over rail, and now autonomous vehicles.

Quote from: thelakelander on August 07, 2023, 07:22:09 AM
The Skyway is falling apart. I don't mind them maintaining the system and replacing the decrepit rolling stock. That's a totally different animal then the U2C nonsense. However, that's not really happening right now.

Quote from: thelakelander on August 07, 2023, 01:22:29 PM
^It's not too late because we've done nothing but blow hot air and light public money on fire.  All of these technologies, including autonomous vehicles, have their niche and place in the transit space. However, only in Jax are we attempting to take a first-last mile solution and force it into being something it isn't......mass transit.

Quote from: fsu813 on August 07, 2023, 03:24:17 PM
"Transit agencies should run transit — not use limited resources to test technology with unproven utility"

You don't say?

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on August 07, 2023, 03:41:25 PM
Marcus, counting on you to send to Monroe if nothing else.  I can't do for various reasons.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on August 08, 2023, 06:27:25 PM

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on August 07, 2023, 03:41:25 PM
Marcus, counting on you to send to Monroe if nothing else.  I can't do for various reasons.

For your sake, I've forwarded the letters to Nate. Whether he wants to do anything with them is his prerogative.

Quote from: thelakelander on August 09, 2023, 02:19:21 PM
It may be time to reconsider the decision to relocate from the existing property they own? Other then some not wanting them to be on riverfront land, how does moving help or hurt DCPS itself?

On the surface, it seems like staying where they are at may be the cheapest option (when compared to the two deals on the table). Heck, they have a huge piece of property with a large surface lot. Have they considered constructing a new building on the south side of the property and then partnering or selling off the riverfront side of the property for infill development? I hope they aren't moving for the sake of moving.

Maybe they should keep their land and partner with Preston Hollow on a redevelopment where DCPS becomes an anchor for the redevelopment?

QuoteCruise and Waymo are inching closer to gaining unfettered access to San Francisco's roadways, but residents fear that the driverless cars — which have caused hundreds of traffic incidents since their initial launch — still aren't ready to be fully unleashed. An Aug. 7 meeting held by the California Public Utilities Commission to "address safety issues" regarding autonomous vehicles attracted over 200 listeners, and scores of Bay Area residents lambasted the cars in public comments, describing them as menacing, "creepy" and an existential threat to drivers and pedestrians.

In June 2022, the California Public Utilities Commission authorized Cruise to deploy 30 autonomous vehicles for paying passengers' use in designated regions in the city. Waymo cars hit Bay Area streets (without charging fares) just five months later. Despite the two multibillion-dollar companies' ongoing efforts to expand their ride-hailing services, some city officials have strongly protested, with the executive director of the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, the executive director of the San Francisco County Transportation Authority and the director of the city's planning department arguing this spring that Cruise's AVs have caused so many traffic violations that similar errors "would preclude any teenager from getting a California Driver's License."

That statement followed a letter from the same officials in January that noted that there had been a surge of 911 calls about Cruise cars' "erratic" driving in the previous seven months. Incident reports show that AVs, which one San Francisco resident previously described to SFGATE as "incompetent 'Futurama'-type robots," have interfered with firefighters on the job multiple times. According to the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, they've also obstructed Muni routes and unexpectedly stopped in the middle of the street, endangering human drivers. As a result, activists have resorted to placing orange traffic cones on the vehicles' hoods in a last-ditch effort to disable them.

The Monday CPUC meeting featured a presentation that showed there have been nearly 600 reported traffic incidents involving AVs – and that officials suspect that many more have flown under the radar. In the same document, officials wrote that neither Cruise or Waymo have disclosed the number of times their vehicles have unexpectedly stopped and intruded on the city's first responders, which has only deepened their distrust.

https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/san-franciscans-beg-california-stop-cruise-waymo-18286073.php 

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on August 09, 2023, 08:17:30 PM
If only San Franciscans and their version of JTA had JTA to show them the way in safely implementing autonomous vehicles.  And, for only $400 million, not billions, in just a few short years, not decades.  On behalf of Ron DeSantis, just another example of how Floridians are once again so much smarter than those dummies in California  ;D.

QuoteCruise and Waymo are inching closer to gaining unfettered access to San Francisco's roadways, but residents fear that the driverless cars — which have caused hundreds of traffic incidents since their initial launch — still aren't ready to be fully unleashed. An Aug. 7 meeting held by the California Public Utilities Commission to "address safety issues" regarding autonomous vehicles attracted over 200 listeners, and scores of Bay Area residents lambasted the cars in public comments, describing them as menacing, "creepy" and an existential threat to drivers and pedestrians.

In June 2022, the California Public Utilities Commission authorized Cruise to deploy 30 autonomous vehicles for paying passengers' use in designated regions in the city. Waymo cars hit Bay Area streets (without charging fares) just five months later. Despite the two multibillion-dollar companies' ongoing efforts to expand their ride-hailing services, some city officials have strongly protested, with the executive director of the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, the executive director of the San Francisco County Transportation Authority and the director of the city's planning department arguing this spring that Cruise's AVs have caused so many traffic violations that similar errors "would preclude any teenager from getting a California Driver's License."

That statement followed a letter from the same officials in January that noted that there had been a surge of 911 calls about Cruise cars' "erratic" driving in the previous seven months. Incident reports show that AVs, which one San Francisco resident previously described to SFGATE as "incompetent 'Futurama'-type robots," have interfered with firefighters on the job multiple times. According to the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, they've also obstructed Muni routes and unexpectedly stopped in the middle of the street, endangering human drivers. As a result, activists have resorted to placing orange traffic cones on the vehicles' hoods in a last-ditch effort to disable them.

The Monday CPUC meeting featured a presentation that showed there have been nearly 600 reported traffic incidents involving AVs – and that officials suspect that many more have flown under the radar. In the same document, officials wrote that neither Cruise or Waymo have disclosed the number of times their vehicles have unexpectedly stopped and intruded on the city's first responders, which has only deepened their distrust.

https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/san-franciscans-beg-california-stop-cruise-waymo-18286073.php 

Quote from: marcuscnelson on July 26, 2023, 06:04:20 PM

Quote from: BridgeTroll on July 26, 2023, 04:26:39 PM
The Atlanta autonomous shuttle is now running... the manufacturer is... Beep.  The shuttle will be called " The Cumberland Hopper ".

https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2023/07/25/driverless-shuttle-launches-cumberland/

https://ridebeep.com/

Beep isn't a manufacturer. Their actual job in theory is to be a transit agency for places without transit agencies (such as master planned developments, college or medical campuses, places of that nature), but specifically for autonomous shuttles. So you (as the municipality, or developer/CDD, or BID) give them a contract to design, provide vehicles for and then operate a shuttle route, whereas you would normally have a transit agency design, provide buses and drivers for and then operate a bus route.

The vehicles are supposed to be manufactured by other companies, like Local Motors or Navya. But those companies have now gone bankrupt so they're either in a similar position to JTA in the early 2010s and having to figure out how to keep maintaining vehicles that are now out of production, or scrambling to find other companies (like ZF and Holon) to get them new vehicles on some reasonable timeline. Of course there's no way they're currently profitable right now so they have to do all this while interest rates continue to rise, constraining new VC money to fund operations and development while their costs continue to escalate.

So that leaves Beep two options until the technology works well enough to remove the attendants and have a consistent, high-quality vehicle that lets them reduce costs (whenever that happens):

1) Keep finding enough master planned developments and agencies willing to hand them few hundred thousand dollars at a time to run "pilots," or

2) Find a gullible enough, future-obsessed enough transit agency willing to hand them millions, potentially tens of millions of dollars to operate a shuttle route.

I wonder who that would be.

Quote from: jaxoNOLE on August 16, 2023, 07:32:24 PM
But won't we owe the federal grant money back if the BSIC fails? How does exacerbating our grant money ball and chain help?

It seems fairly clear that repaying $90 million or whatever it is and getting something functional would be preferable to the pods failing, having to repay $90 + $12 million, and having nothing functional.

Quote from: jaxoNOLE on August 16, 2023, 07:32:24 PM
But won't we owe the federal grant money back if the BSIC fails? How does exacerbating our grant money ball and chain help?

It seems fairly clear that repaying $90 million or whatever it is and getting something functional would be preferable to the pods failing, having to repay $90 + $12 million, and having nothing functional.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on August 16, 2023, 09:46:37 PM

Quote from: jaxoNOLE on August 16, 2023, 07:32:24 PM
But won't we owe the federal grant money back if the BSIC fails? How does exacerbating our grant money ball and chain help?

It seems fairly clear that repaying $90 million or whatever it is and getting something functional would be preferable to the pods failing, having to repay $90 + $12 million, and having nothing functional.

Nat Ford and Angie Williams might well be retired by the time the other shoe drops. Bernard Schmidt is already gone.

In regards to something I said earlier, it seems worthwhile to point out that Beep's last big fundraising round was a year ago, and only $25 million (https://ridebeep.com/2022/03/22/autonomous_vehicles_funding_partnership/) for what I doubt is a particularly cheap industry to be in. I wonder how long they can actually go without the massive funding influx from the U2C via their DBOM contract.

Quote
This means both companies can now charge for driverless rides without a safety driver present 24 hours a day. The resolutions passed by the commission don't include any caps on mileage or fleet sizes, and both companies have full discretion over how they plan to scale service.

Prior to Thursday's decision, Cruise publicly disclosed that it operated about 300 driverless taxis at night and 100 during the day. Waymo disclosed its fleet numbered about 250 robotaxis, with about 100 of them in service at any given time of day.

Cruise and Waymo have not specified how they plan to expand their services — nor are they required to under state regulations. Both companies, though, said this week that they plan to do so incrementally.

Waymo's CPUC resolution notes that the company is allowed to operate robotaxis on roadways at speeds of up to 65 mph.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on August 17, 2023, 12:18:33 AM

Quote from: jaxoNOLE on August 16, 2023, 07:32:24 PM
But won't we owe the federal grant money back if the BSIC fails? How does exacerbating our grant money ball and chain help?

It seems fairly clear that repaying $90 million or whatever it is and getting something functional would be preferable to the pods failing, having to repay $90 + $12 million, and having nothing functional.

JaxoNOLE, read back a few posts on this thread for a discussion on the Federal "payback" re: the Skyway.  I seriously doubt JTA owes more than $24 million to the Feds based on the Federal letters to JTA posted by Marcus.  Further, based on one letter, they may owe as little as zero based on the fair market value of a system that can't be supported by the manufacturer anymore.  Based on the Federal letters posted, JTA appears to have grossly misled leadership and the public with regard to this issue and it warrant further investigation.

Quote from: thelakelander on August 17, 2023, 08:23:42 AM
^It just gets sillier and sillier the more one thinks about it. Why would anyone ride this slow moving minivan on a fixed elevated guideway as a serious form of mass transit?

Quote
The autonomous, electric vehicle service, to be deployed this fall, will provide a new mobility service for students, faculty and visitors on the FSCJ Downtown Jacksonville campus.  It will connect the Advanced Technology Center, President's office, and Cafeteria over a one-mile route to enhance movement between these segmented areas of campus.

The project is one of many planned "Agile" programs pioneered by the JTA team to prepare the Jacksonville community for the future of transportation through the Ultimate Urban Circulator (U2C) program. These important projects will validate the wide variety of applications for autonomous vehicles throughout the community ahead of the launch of phase one of the U2C, the Bay Street Innovation Corridor in 2025.  Expanding the testing of autonomous vehicles in FSCJ's Downtown Campus will also continue to ready the community for how autonomous technology will enhance the quality of life for all who learn, live, and work in the City of Jacksonville.

As part of the autonomous vehicle program, FSCJ's Downtown Campus, faculty, staff and students will experience autonomous vehicles operating on campus first-hand. Feedback and learnings from the program will build upon the existing knowledge base of this emerging technology as it continues to develop the FSCJ curriculum, skillset and workforce to support these transformative transportation solutions.

Quote...The JTA has been researching and testing autonomous vehicle technologies since 2017.  JTA's efforts to date have greatly impacted development of next generation autonomous platforms and solutions, which will result in the City of Jacksonville being one of the first in the world to deliver on the vision of safe, convenient, autonomous, electric, shared  mobility networks to further activate and modernize the downtown area....

Quote from: Captain Zissou on July 12, 2023, 05:24:41 PM

QuoteBernard Schmidt resigns as JTA automation and innovation vice president
Schmidt's responsibilities at JTA included supervising the authority's Armsdale Test & Learn Facility, where the authority operates and tests prototype automated vehicles expected to replace the aging Downtown elevated Skyway monorail system.

He also was one of JTA's lead executives to procure and coordinate design/build services for the U2C, which could be a $400 million project.

Schmidt's $278,491 annual salary was the second-highest-paid employee at JTA next to Ford.

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2023/jul/12/bernard-schmidt-resigns-as-jta-automation-and-innovation-vice-president/

Quote from: marcuscnelson on April 24, 2024, 03:30:01 PM
Afraid not, definitely curious if there will be any public pushback on the U2C today or at tomorrow's board meeting.

Quote
"Join the JTA and our U2C partners for a drop-in style, informational session on upcoming work activities."

Quote from: thelakelander on April 25, 2024, 09:49:53 PM
$18 million already? On what?!

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 06, 2024, 09:56:20 PM
The attempted five-year delay is insane. Lays out that switching to the Ford vans is a last-ditch attempt to salvage this project with an FTA that seems to be losing patience. Stunning to see CMs Johnson and Carlucci essentially shrug in response, while Rep Nixon changed her mind in light of the evidence. The silence from most everyone else is baffling.

I don't see how any of this statement can still be true:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GM7iCk3XEAAgJxG?format=jpg&name=medium)

Quote
A big part of it is how these autonomous vehicles will be operated.

"We are working on what we've been calling the supervisory system for the project which is that screen an individual can sit down behind and make operational choices to keep things moving with the system," Jordan Dowdy with Beep said.

That's especially important to keep things running smoothly for passengers.

"If there is a like a low battery issue with a vehicle that would be where an individual would

Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 13, 2024, 10:07:32 PM
Did anyone attend JTA's U2C Show?
https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/local/jta-holds-public-information-sessions-its-autonomous-vehicle-project/U7OQPB5EPVDN5JEHERHMU2ZF2U/

Quote
A big part of it is how these autonomous vehicles will be operated.

"We are working on what we've been calling the supervisory system for the project which is that screen an individual can sit down behind and make operational choices to keep things moving with the system," Jordan Dowdy with Beep said.

That's especially important to keep things running smoothly for passengers.

"If there is a like a low battery issue with a vehicle that would be where an individual would

Isn't that what in normal English is called a "driver" or "operator"?

Quote(https://media.yourobserver.com/img/photos/2024/05/13/20240513_U2C_t1100.jpeg?31a214c4405663fd4bc7e33e8c8cedcc07d61559)

....JTA staff and contractors in the project were on hand at the Main Library for the community events, which offered an overview of the U2C and provided stations where participants could ask questions about the system's design, vehicles and other technology.

A video presentation at the community meetings said the initial phase of the project, which will operate on and around Bay Street, will provide 14 shuttles on a 3-mile route with 12 stops. Plans call for the shuttles to run every seven minutes.

The shuttles will be fitted with radar and lidar systems, static closed-circuit TV cameras and other technology that will interconnect with an array of sensors providing input on pedestrian and traffic movement, weather and other conditions.

Included in the Bay Street plan are 39 pedestrian sensors, plus high-tech traffic lights that include motion sensors. Nat Ford, CEO of the JTA, said onboard safety attendants would be stationed on the shuttles for the first nine months to one year of operations.

Ford said JTA designed the system with a philosophy of "measure three times, cut once," working with various jurisdictional authorities – the Florida Department of Transportation, the Downtown Investment Authority and JEA among them – to map out the system in a way aimed at minimizing changes after it is built.

Cost of the Bay Street phase is estimated at $66.5 million, including $9 million for the Autonomous Innovation Center. Two successive phases will involve adapting the Skyway elevated monorail into the U2C and expanding the system, pushing the estimated cost to as much as $400 million for a full build-out.

Construction has begun on the Autonomous Innovation Center, which will be the nerve center of the system, with a ceremonial groundbreaking scheduled for May 29.

The center in LaVilla along East Bay Street will include a rooftop solar microgrid that will supply power to recharge the shuttles, an education center for conversations about automated vehicle technology and electric vehicle charging stations that will be available to the public.

The community sessions included a station focusing on design of the central control system, which will be the connection point for the streams of information flowing from the vehicles and sensors. Greer Johnson Gillis, a JTA senior vice president and chief infrastructure and development officer, said the system would allow operators to monitor for potential hazards and remotely control the shuttles accordingly.

Jordan Dowdy, a representative of the autonomous vehicle solutions company Beep Inc., said the system is being designed to be "vehicle agnostic," meaning it will be able to interface with new AV technology as the field evolves. Beep has contracted with JTA to develop the system.

Gillis said the timeline calls for the Bay Street system to begin operations in June 2025.

The U2C has drawn criticism that it is overly expensive, relies on unproven technology and pulls funding away from other solutions that would more pragmatic. Among the critics is Council member Jimmy Peluso, whose District 7 includes the Bay Street corridor.

The estimated cost of the first phase has risen since January 2022, when JTA signed a $49 million contract with a consortium headed by Balfour Beatty LLC for the first phase of the project.

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2024/may/13/jta-provides-community-updates-on-automated-shuttle-system/

Quote
A video presentation at the community meetings said the initial phase of the project, which will operate on and around Bay Street, will provide 14 shuttles on a 3-mile route with 12 stops. Plans call for the shuttles to run every seven minutes.

Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 14, 2024, 11:38:40 AM
3. At 9 mph, each van can make 3 loops/hour, with 3 vans, that's 9 loops/hour, or 9 trips from downtown to the stadium per hour. Using 15-passenger vans, that's 135 passengers per hour. But, since the vans have to be ADA accessible, maybe only 10 passengers, for 90 passengers delivered per hour.

Quote from: Charles Hunter on May 26, 2024, 05:28:17 PM
The Business Journal recently posted an article on their FB page, "JTA moves ahead with plan for U2C to Jags stadium"

There are nearly 200 comments, and I did not read all of them. But of those I read, many want the existing Skyway extended to the stadium or build a streetcar line. Endorsements of the U2C were scarce (in the sample I read).

FB post: https://www.facebook.com/JBJNews/posts/pfbid02urZb77YuN1Yw628WGKrfziiisP56CPBkFydCSV9m6SVH4vD2cWD2MMyiX7oxD3hTl

Quote"The city should not allow these vehicles on any road, much less downtown, ever."

QuoteThe emails also show serious concerns for the safety of the project overall, based on JTA's own language. JTA said it needs a significant amount of this equipment mounted on the city's traffic signals on Bay Street to "provide for the safe operations of the AVs."

That equipment gives the vehicles priority at traffic lights, but JTA's own agreement, submitted to the city, said if that's not working "it presents an immediate risk to public safety."

That's one of the reasons why the city engineer sent an email to city stakeholders, saying, "that statement alone should be enough to stop the whole project."

Quote
In addition, the command center is designed for scale, enabling the orchestration of future mobility networks with over 100 vehicles to connect key areas of the city, such as Brooklyn, Springfield, San Marco, and Riverside.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 29, 2024, 07:13:05 PM
Action News also reporting tonight of fears expressed by the city's former Chief of Engineering and Construction over the safety of running the shuttles on city streets.

https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/local/investigates-concerns-over-jtas-bay-street-innovation-corridor/7IZZAY23TNGKRI2BKGMC33MY7M/

Quote from: thelakelander on May 29, 2024, 10:57:08 PM
Its a ticking time bomb. Its not going to end well for Jacksonville and no amount of fanfare is going to save it from reality. Nothing has literally changed from a technical concern since we've began raising them since day one, years ago. Its a bad game of musical chairs and whoever doesn't jump off ship before the music stops is going to suffer politically.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on May 30, 2024, 12:21:26 AM
Credit Action News for staying on this since no one else is.  Disappointed that Nate Monroe is not all over it as this is the biggest fiasco in the City since Zahn's scheme.  Someone could win some journalism awards for exposing this fraud!

Quote from: Todd_Parker on May 26, 2024, 08:34:04 PMIt's going to take a large public outcry to get this project shelved but I think the citizenry is too apathetic for anything to happen and those responsible will be long gone to face any consequences.

Quote from: thelakelander on May 30, 2024, 11:22:29 AM
Its going to blow up and that day is likely 12 to 24 months away (around the anticipated time of the Bay Street Innovation Cooridor completion date). My fear is that those closest and most responsible for this boondoggle will be long gone with a new job in another city by then, leaving others who meant well and have honest intent, to deal with the political fallout.

Quote from: Ken_FSU on May 30, 2024, 11:34:08 AM.

The fact that the U2C continues to lurch forward might be the single most baffling thing I've seen since moving to Jacksonville. There's just zero legitimate need for it, and zero ambiguity about its ultimate failure. Ultimate example of sunk cost fallacy.

Quote from: thelakelander on May 30, 2024, 07:17:24 PM
While I'm not a fan of the misguided promotion of the U2C and wasteful spending by JTA, I believe this project has demonstrated that we have the financial resources locally to do real transformative mass transit projects. Years ago, JTA used lack of funding as an excuse to not invest in any form of rail-based transit. This region went as far to set up a regional transportation commission with representatives of multiple counties to see if taxes should be raised for true multimodal solutions. I was one of two appointed members of that commission that represented Duval County. Now we've come full circle by having JTA try to force feed a highly questionable, low capacity project down the community's throat, that will have to funded by local dollars (since the feds and state are clearly not believers enough to put their money where their mouth is). I'm excited to see what we can actually get off the ground once the U2C goes belly up.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 30, 2024, 08:06:14 PM

Quote from: thelakelander on May 30, 2024, 07:17:24 PM
While I'm not a fan of the misguided promotion of the U2C and wasteful spending by JTA, I believe this project has demonstrated that we have the financial resources locally to do real transformative mass transit projects. Years ago, JTA used lack of funding as an excuse to not invest in any form of rail-based transit. This region went as far to set up a regional transportation commission with representatives of multiple counties to see if taxes should be raised for true multimodal solutions. I was one of two appointed members of that commission that represented Duval County. Now we've come full circle by having JTA try to force feed a highly questionable, low capacity project down the community's throat, that will have to funded by local dollars (since the feds and state are clearly not believers enough to put their money where their mouth is). I'm excited to see what we can actually get off the ground once the U2C goes belly up.

I certainly hope this is true. I can't help but worry that once the dust has settled from the collapse of this project and the money has been wasted, there might not still be the local wherewithal or broader political support to turn around and invest in effective transit. We don't know what the federal attitude for transit funding will be once this infrastructure bill has ended. We don't know who will be Mayor, whether that's Deegan or someone else, and the resulting relationship with City Council. We don't know what solution will be decided on to replace the gas tax, and what our ability to invest that funding into mass transit will be. We don't know who will end up in charge of JTA (assuming that there is a clearly necessary shakeup) and their attitudes towards rail (seeing as we're 0/2 since the turn of the century and Ford was the most likely to be pro-rail of the candidates). All of those questions will color how we can build a real transit system, assuming we try to at all.

This isn't to say there's no way out, just that it's hard right now to see us being ready and able to finally pick something that works only after blowing millions on something that clearly wouldn't. Looking at the livestream of today's State of the Authority, I'm still bewildered that we're even here in the first place.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 30, 2024, 08:06:14 PM

Quote from: thelakelander on May 30, 2024, 07:17:24 PM
While I'm not a fan of the misguided promotion of the U2C and wasteful spending by JTA, I believe this project has demonstrated that we have the financial resources locally to do real transformative mass transit projects. Years ago, JTA used lack of funding as an excuse to not invest in any form of rail-based transit. This region went as far to set up a regional transportation commission with representatives of multiple counties to see if taxes should be raised for true multimodal solutions. I was one of two appointed members of that commission that represented Duval County. Now we've come full circle by having JTA try to force feed a highly questionable, low capacity project down the community's throat, that will have to funded by local dollars (since the feds and state are clearly not believers enough to put their money where their mouth is). I'm excited to see what we can actually get off the ground once the U2C goes belly up.

I certainly hope this is true. I can't help but worry that once the dust has settled from the collapse of this project and the money has been wasted, there might not still be the local wherewithal or broader political support to turn around and invest in effective transit. We don't know what the federal attitude for transit funding will be once this infrastructure bill has ended. We don't know who will be Mayor, whether that's Deegan or someone else, and the resulting relationship with City Council. We don't know what solution will be decided on to replace the gas tax, and what our ability to invest that funding into mass transit will be. We don't know who will end up in charge of JTA (assuming that there is a clearly necessary shakeup) and their attitudes towards rail (seeing as we're 0/2 since the turn of the century and Ford was the most likely to be pro-rail of the candidates). All of those questions will color how we can build a real transit system, assuming we try to at all.

This isn't to say there's no way out, just that it's hard right now to see us being ready and able to finally pick something that works only after blowing millions on something that clearly wouldn't. Looking at the livestream of today's State of the Authority, I'm still bewildered that we're even here in the first place.

Quote from: Ken_FSU on May 30, 2024, 08:15:26 PM
Genuinely does read like parody.

(https://i.postimg.cc/g0NjB2BS/IMG-8749.jpg)

QuoteOxford University professor Paul Newman, whose company, Oxa, makes the software for the Jacksonville Transportation Authority's Ultimate Urban Connector automated people movers, speaks at the JTA's State of the Authority event at the Prime Osborn III Convention Center on May 30.

Quote from: jaxoNOLE on May 30, 2024, 08:32:26 PM
I'm thrilled about the Emerald Trail, but no, I do not trust the city as a steward of my tax dollars after witnessing the last several years. How can the city hope to marshal support for expensive transit given the history of the Skyway and U2C while buses can't run on time? I hope they can, but there's a lot of damage to repair.

QuoteThe U2C stands to similarly change the transportation ecosphere, Newman said, by providing data that can propel the development of self-driving vehicles.

QuoteNext year, Jacksonville will become the first city in the United States to deploy a true autonomous vehicle network for public transportation. This is not a pilot program folks, it will be a true public transportation service unlike anything ever developed.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 31, 2024, 12:06:36 AM
^ Nat Ford insists otherwise, from the State of the Authority today:

QuoteNext year, Jacksonville will become the first city in the United States to deploy a true autonomous vehicle network for public transportation. This is not a pilot program folks, it will be a true public transportation service unlike anything ever developed.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 31, 2024, 12:06:36 AM
^ Nat Ford insists otherwise, from the State of the Authority today:

QuoteNext year, Jacksonville will become the first city in the United States to deploy a true autonomous vehicle network for public transportation. This is not a pilot program folks, it will be a true public transportation service unlike anything ever developed.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on May 31, 2024, 12:20:47 AM
This quote should be nailed up to all City Hall and JTA walls for a follow up at the end of 2025.  Either deliver on this quote or kill the project on 12/31/2025.

Quote from: thelakelander on May 30, 2024, 08:35:19 PM

Quote from: jaxoNOLE on May 30, 2024, 08:32:26 PM
I'm thrilled about the Emerald Trail, but no, I do not trust the city as a steward of my tax dollars after witnessing the last several years. How can the city hope to marshal support for expensive transit given the history of the Skyway and U2C while buses can't run on time? I hope they can, but there's a lot of damage to repair.

To be honest with you, I'd be totally happy to have a reliable and efficient bus system before worrying about something like LRT. I don't trust that JTA is capable of running any form of rail-based transit. They would need a massive overhaul from top to bottom.

QuoteFord closed his address saying, "remember, transportation isn't about the numbers. It's about the people."

Quote from: marcuscnelson on May 31, 2024, 01:07:53 PM
JTA's National Autonomous Vehicle Day (https://autonomousvehicleday.com/) event is happening again today. They're streaming on YouTube:

Part 1 (Morning) (https://www.youtube.com/live/QfNWfBHWz6M?si=31Zudc-82_W4drl5)
Part 2 (Afternoon) (https://www.youtube.com/live/RwpXxA-DsX0?si=iuSmkiOHzbdNDL5x)

I'll transcribe some of Mr. Ford's statements later. Emily Turner from Action News also attended, asking some questions of JTA executives as well as City Councilman Rahman Johnson, her questions can be seen on the stream here (https://www.youtube.com/live/QfNWfBHWz6M?si=31Zudc-82_W4drl5&t=7785).

QuoteAlright Greer, so see me this afternoon around your evaluation. She embarrassed me a little bit there. I mean, I don't do all of this by myself. I've got a great team of folks here at the JTA and they afford me the opportunity to lead at the national level.

It's so great to be here and see all of you here, and welcome to our 2025 [sic] AV Day celebration. This has been an exciting week for the JTA. Earlier this week, we broke ground on our new AIC, the Automated [sic] Innovation Center in LaVilla, and so it's just been a great week. We had visitors from the FTA here, talking about our project amongst all the other projects we have underway here at the Jacksonville Transportation Authority, so good morning everyone and it's great to see you all here.

We welcome you to the Armsdale Test & Learn facility. It is a key component to our autonomous vehicle program here and we opened it up once we decided to move forward with the Ultimate Urban Circulator, you know it as the U2C, and you have seen probably in the last-if you've been reading the newspapers and following Jacksonville, we have been just exploding in terms of population. We are now ranked 10th in the nation in terms of total population as a city, so we broke that hurdle and we're in the top 10 in terms of population, and recently Wall Street Journal placed us as the second hottest job market in the US and the number one job market in terms of Florida.

More and more people - alright that does deserve applause. So, more and more people are moving here every day and that is pressing our transportation infrastructure and is why it's so necessary for us to embrace autonomous vehicle technology. Covering 870 square miles we have a lot of nooks and crannies, and including our downtown, to really try and service our community and move them in a more efficient way. To address that need we are rapidly becoming-and that's why we're here today. We are trying to set Jacksonville up to be a center of autonomous vehicle technology and we appreciate you all being here.

And in fact, you may have heard about Project Link. Project Link is tied to our U2C program. Project Link is an investment by a major, international tier-one automotive-grade organization to actually begin manufacturing autonomous vehicles here in the United States and hopefully through a process, it will be right here in Jacksonville, and we are so excited about that opportunity, the jobs that will be created in addition to the mobility, the economic impact will be for generations yet unborn in terms of Jacksonville and put our city on a totally innovative trajectory.

I mentioned two days earlier, we broke ground on the Autonomous Innovation Center. We are on schedule to deliver the U2C project, the Bay Street Innovation Corridor in 2025. We are on schedule, we're making great progress. The U2C represents our vision of the future, where our residents and our visitors are better connected to destinations, which will help them improve the quality of their lives. We here in Jacksonville, we like to pride ourselves on our healthcare facilities. In addition to the U2C project, we've done work in the past during the pandemic on Mayo Clinic's campus, and we see the opportunity, not just to move commuters and move folks who are going to sporting events and entertainment. We see an opportunity to prove the healthcare opportunities in our community by providing autonomous vehicles on those campuses.

The USDOT and the FTA are our cofounders. Our project started back in 2015 and then we were fortunate to receive a BUILD grant that funded phase one of this program, and that partnership, again I told you it was a busy week, that partnership was even more reinforced just this week when we signed a grant agreement with USDOT to begin the design and examination in the planning around phase 3 of our project. We haven't launched phase 1 as of yet, but they are feeling so bullish and so supportive of this program they've actually contributed $1.7 million to study phase 3 of this program.

That 7 1/2 mile phase 3 expansion will go into neighborhoods like the north extension which is the UF Health corridor connecting with UF Health on the north side of Downtown Jacksonville; west extension to the Riverside corridor, that is where Dunn & Bradstreet and a number of financial institutions have built, FIS built new campuses for financial tech work that is done here in Jacksonville so we'll be connecting with that business community; the south extension, so now we have a south extension-north extension and a south extension, on the north you'll have UF Health, on the south you'll have Baptist Hospital and that will create a healthcare corridor; and then a southeast extension into San Marco, one of the older neighborhoods here in Jacksonville, and completing the total 10 mile system for the U2C Program.

All of this work and the planning around it will set us up for additional federal funding and we're working very closely with USDOT and our federal partners. I believe that in the future, when the convenience of using autonomous vehicles is commonplace, you will look back at events and days like today, where we came together working from the government sector, the private sector, the innovators, where we came together and started building this new technology and this opportunity to move people more smartly in our community.

I want to thank Harold Braun, Harold's gonna be up in a second here, of Guident for being with us this morning and being a true cofounder and partner as we develop these systems in these opportunities to gather. Guident is worth working on making AV deployment safer through their work and collaboration with agencies like the JTA, our progress would not be where it is today without their support and so then. Also I need to recognize yesterday's keynote speaker who stepped in at the last minute, Dr. Paul Newman, renowned expert on robotics and mobile autonomy, one of the founders of what was Oxbotica and now Oxa, we did not get here alone. It is a pleasure to welcome all of you here to Jacksonville and an honor to learn from you.

We didn't get here alone, as I mentioned cofounders-and I picked up that phrase from Paul yesterday-it is a ecosystem of cofounders and terms of our project here at the JTA and one of those groups of founders is the JTA Board of Directors. Could you imagine as a CEO of the JTA and the staff, working for a board of directors that allowed us to boldly move forward with this new technology. This facility here, giving the JTA the opportunity to do the research and development so we could be a good partner with the innovators in the private sector that were working in this space, we've tested numerous vehicles and different technologies and systems here at this Test & Learn facility. We're joined by Debbie Buckland-where is Debbie?-the Chair of the JTA board. Okay, she may have had to run out, but she was here and the leadership in terms of the JTA Board. They have created this environment of innovation, courageousness, and boldness here at the JTA, and I'm joined by a staff that believes in the same kind of mission and has the same DNA.

I'd like to applaud our friends across the state of Florida, the United States, and the world travelers who have come here to Jacksonville to be part of today. We have a fantastic slate of panels ranging from infrastructure to workforce development and more, we are learning and growing together, and that is a hallmark of progress in this community.

This is not easy to do, in fact this is tough to do, but the tough things are so rewarding in the very end. The mission is so rewarding, think about the mobility that we will be able to provide with autonomous vehicles for communities that have been landlocked for generations, providing mobility to allow people to get higher educations, get better healthcare, and to be able to get that job that they so much want to have but can't get there efficiently. So with that, I'm just proud of everybody in this room. Thank you for your courage. Thank you for your boldness, your innovation, and thank you for joining us here in Jacksonville to be part of this journey, part of this legacy and the U2C program.

QuoteAnd in fact, you may have heard about Project Link. Project Link is tied to our U2C program. Project Link is an investment by a major, international tier-one automotive-grade organization to actually begin manufacturing autonomous vehicles here in the United States and hopefully through a process, it will be right here in Jacksonville, and we are so excited about that opportunity, the jobs that will be created in addition to the mobility, the economic impact will be for generations yet unborn in terms of Jacksonville and put our city on a totally innovative trajectory.

QuoteCouncilman Johnson: There we go. Without any further ado, Nat, this is such an amazing opportunity for Jacksonville, and as you know with me being on the City Council and always asking questions, but vision is important for Jacksonville. We are taking vision to another level with this because it's something that's not been done before. What is your vision as to this project and how it will work in our community?

Nat Ford: Thank you Councilman. You know, when we started this journey a few years back, we started out with a problem and the problem was the aging Skyway and it was past its useful life and we needed to figure out and decide whether we were gonna extend this obsolete technology, the 2 1/2 mile people mover that never got fully built out here in Jacksonville. It ended up stopping at 2 1/2 miles and when I first arrived, great deal of criticism and then differing opinions: tear it down, keep it up, keep it up and expand it, so there were a lot of various different opinions, but the thought was, because the JTA uniquely is a organization that does public transportation and roadway building and bridge building, our team very boldly came up with a concept of looking at how we could use autonomous vehicles and future-proof the skyway, or future-proof that downtown people mover going into the future.

One of the things that I think is most important with the team, and their coming up and being creative with this new concept, was that they cared about Jacksonville and cared about this community, and many of us when we first arrived, I know myself, Greer and a couple of other folks, when we looked at a lot of our infrastructure, we thought that there was a need to really elevate it, and that we needed dignified and first class transportation infrastructure to take our city to that next level.

We knew what we were taking on was a big challenge, right, something that had never been done before, but it was not a question of if on autonomous technology, it would be a question of when, and how do we do it in a way that was responsible and also something that was innovative and I say deserving of our community. The Ultimate Urban Circulator program came out of a Skyway Advisory Committee that said okay, we know downtown is going to be developing, we need to have a system that is expanded and covers the entire 10 miles. Unfortunately, covering that entire 10 mile area using the continuous Skyway would have took us into the billions of dollars and frankly they would've took generations probably to actually build out that aerial structure with the monorail system.

We also recognized that there was a federal investment in the existing Skyway. It's still there right now, and so with the federal investment, we were getting challenged that we're going to keep the Skyway, properly maintain it. They saw the disinvestment, the actual cannibalization of some of the vehicles, they saw that, and the FTA was challenging us to reinvest in the existing Skyway or find a way to repurpose it, and so out of that, the U2C project was born.

We had to, and this facility is example of it, if we were going down the path of autonomous vehicles, to extend the system, we had to learn and understand autonomous vehicle technology just as well as you do as the private sector and the innovators. So we couldn't have that imbalance of authority or an agency that is talking about a technology, but really doesn't understand the brick and mortar of how those systems operate. Very fortunate, and I applaud the JTA Board, very fortunate they gave us the green light.

We had built this facility to be part of our First Coast Flyer bus rapid transit network, it was actually a motorsports showroom or something of that nature, and it was a perfect location for our automation and innovation team to separate from the core JTA operation and come here and innovate, and learn about these technologies and test over this timeframe over eight or nine different vehicles. Out of that came the Golden 20, where we actually then shared our learnings as it relates to the innovators who were developing the technology, but really didn't understand the public transportation part of the equation. So with the golden 20, we pushed that out to all of the early manufacturers and next thing you know, we started seeing vehicles that were developed that considered ADA accessibility, public information, communication, redundant systems that are necessary to make sure we have control and command on those vehicles.

So we positioned the JTA to be a leader in this space around the public transportation deployment of autonomous transportation. We positioned the JTA for that, we developed a great team of experts internally to the organization and then many of you, many of my peers around the country, I think you recall years ago I started talking about the U2C project, and not just to the government public transportation folks, we were talking to the private sector, we were doing presentations all around the globe, the idea being that we recognized and saw that there was a shortage of Buy America, and eventually no Buy America compliant vehicles in the United States, so how are we going to solve that problem?

Well that got us into economic development and working with manufacturer to really see what were their plans overseas in terms of coming to the US. I say all of that to say is, we started out with a problem, but at the hearts we cared about people, we cared about technology, we cared about taxpayer investment, and the idea was to come up with a solution that would future-proof for Jacksonville, have the scalability, and have reasonable cost in terms of its development, and here we are today.

We are excited about the opportunity this will bring to our community in terms of mobility at a basic level because that's our responsibility but now we've gotten into a space where we are creating a new ecosystem around technology, and this project and this program has now grown bigger than the actual U2C project.

I mentioned earlier about a tier one manufacturer coming to Jacksonville, as part of the program we work with FSCJ, we have a partnership with them developing the curriculum for up and coming engineering students and students who want to work in this space, we've done that with Duval County Public Schools with roadshows, showing them these different types of vehicles, and then something that I'm really excited about is the ability to expand far beyond the U2C project and use this technology and some of our areas that are less dense, and frankly a 40 foot bus or light rail vehicle would be extremely wasteful in terms of using those technologies and using that type of public transportation to solve our issues.

At the end of the day, we want to lead this industry, from a public transportation standpoint many of you around the country we've work with you the aces coalition, Scott, I mean thank you for the leadership, pulling all of us together so that we learn together and we lift our transportation in this community and in this country to the standards that I think is dignified and what our communities deserve.

And so with that, that's the vision in terms of the U2C project and how we got to where we are today and once again, thank you for being here, it is not a easy journey, but with the partnerships that we formed here throughout the nation and around the world, we're gonna deliver this project and it'll be something that we all can be very very proud of, so with that, thank you and I'm available for any additional questions.

QuoteCouncilman Johnson: Now I will tell you, I'm not gonna take it easy on you. I know we know each other but I'm gonna ask the tough questions because I did get my training in journalism and I am a journalist by trade so I will be asking those questions (Nat Ford: No worries.), so I want to ask: why autonomous? I mean there's so many other things. I know I've heard from my colleagues, I like, I'm an early adapter right? I like to see technology in the new things happening, there are those who were saying, light rail or commuter rail or even expansion of bus services is a way to go? Why autonomous and why now?

Nat Ford: You know, about having the right service for the problem, right? For the challenge and when we look at light rail for example, we're talking about in this case a 3 mile loop, let's just use that 3 mile loop with a control center, and that control center could be expanded to manage hundreds of vehicles so when we talk about the ReadiRide zones and things of that nature, this control center can maintain all of that and operate all of that, so that's a one-time kind of capital cost. In terms of the daily operations cost and initial capital investment, we're talking in this particular case for 3 miles, $66 million so the average is about $30 million per mile for service.

It's a scalable service, we can add vehicles, subtract vehicles, and one of our largest cost drivers at the JTA is the operator in the seat and so that limits us financially in terms of how much service we can provide based on our budget and our taxpayers and fares actually cover that budget. If we look to the future in being able to provide more transportation for our community, we have to look at that operational cost and that capital cost.

So I've heard, what about light rail? Let's do light rail! Well, some of my colleagues are here in the room, when you talk about a $30 million per mile cost versus a $1 billion mile cost, I think the math speaks for itself. Do we need in Jacksonville, over 870 square miles with a severe lack of density, and our community, light rail would not be the right solution from a per passenger cost, that system, folks would ride into downtown, commuting to work in the morning and they would commute home, and during the day and in the evening we are still paying for that service. It's not scalable. The tracks, the catenary wire that would have to be installed, billions of dollars that would be invested and you have that ongoing operation and maintenance cost.

I've been fortunate. I've built pretty much every surface transportation mode that's out there. I'd love to build rail in Jacksonville, but in this particular instance in Downtown Jacksonville and in your community, in the communities that are less dense, using a jackhammer to deal with a tack is overkill and I think it would be the wrong decision at this point. We are looking at rail, potentially regional rail, connecting the different cities within Northeast Florida, but a light rail solution, the ridership isn't there and I think it's disingenuous sometimes to throw that up as a substitute for this program because no one actually talks about the cost of that investment.

Councilman Johnson: And it's destructive, right? Our grandkids, I mean in our lifetimes, would we even see the realization of that?

Nat Ford: I think frankly what I'm seeing with this technology is the flexibility, the scalability, the adaptability, why? Because you don't have those fixed tracks and fixed stations so when we talk about downtown Jacksonville, we have the Bay Street Innovation Corridor and that 3 mile loop that 3 mile loop could be adjusted based on time of day, day of week, Jaguars game, Jumbo Shrimp baseball game, so we can adjust frequency, we can scale up and not have that operating cost that we actually deal with using the technology, and frankly it's preparing for the future. Vehicles will get larger, more capacity, things of that nature.

QuoteCouncilman Johnson: Let's talk some specifics. We're looking at a year launch, a year from now, I think we're all ready for that because we're chomping at the bit, but that leads us back to the other question. Based on the time that has been spent, are we behind schedule? Will we be on track to make it in time so that we launch and then we follow all of the other benchmarks?

Nat Ford: Yeah, I'm very comfortable with our schedule, as when we actually applied for the BUILD grant and started what's called 30% design-well, you guys are familiar-then 60% and 90% design. We are building a system that there's no guidepost, there's no template. You know if I was building, again, light rail or commuter rail, I can go to some of the cities that have built it, go see how they developed, it probably adopt the same vehicles, and just off we go. It will take a long time, but there's a template. There's a history. A hundred year history in terms of streetcars. So what happens in this particular case, we're building something that's never been built before, so I think there's a certain level of grace and understanding in terms of innovating and inventing and the future and the benefit here is so great that the time we're taking to do it, I think you measure three times with something like this and you cut once, we can't afford to do it and fail because of the dependencies that everyone has on us.

Quote from: thelakelander on June 03, 2024, 07:14:39 AM
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2024/06/03/jta-will-use-retrofitted-ford-e-transit-vans-for-automated-vehicles/73647836007/

QuoteCouncilman Johnson: Let's talk vehicles. This is the Holon vehicle, that's the one we've all seen about, we've heard about, but then I'm also hearing in the research that I've done that those will not be the ones that will be operating, so the question then comes back, is it truly an autonomous vehicle?

Nat Ford: These are questions that have come up. So the Ford E-Transit vehicle, with a autonomous kit bolted onto it, is an autonomous vehicle that can get to level four operation, and level four for the late people is clearly no human intervention, the vehicle drives itself. We are a hundred percent supportive of Buy America and putting Americans to work to build this infrastructure and build this system. Because our project is a permanent deployment with a federal grant, we have to comply with certain rules and regulations related to vehicle crashworthiness, related to Buy America clauses, and to make sure we don't miss our schedule with our grant because it has a timeline, we had to make a tough decision to say we're going to go with the retrofitted vehicle, which accomplishes the mobility, the primary goal here is autonomous mobility, this vehicle accomplishes it. We also do recognize that there is going to be entrance into the US market with purpose-built vehicles designed specifically for these types of deployments, and when that time comes, we'll make a decision and adjustment, but we are not going to lose our timeline and lose our federal grant because we are looking at aesthetics and things of that nature. So the technology, the mobility, that's what key to us, and then the aesthetics, they'll come at the appropriate time.

Councilman Johnson: I believe that Buy American influence and the other things, that's one of the things that help the economy of the city.

Nat Ford: And you and I talk very frankly, I do not like the shade that is thrown on the Ford E-Transit. It's built by Americans. The Buy America, Build America is not a democratic or republican policy. It's been a consistent policies. It is Americans working in Michigan and other parts of this country to build these vehicles and I think this is just our trajectory in our timeframe as Americans to introduce this technology, and so I say that for the record, we will comply with Buy America.

QuoteCouncilman Johnson: It's National AV Day but right now the world is watching, from around the world, with the industry leaders here, the autonomous ecosystem here at JTA, how can they get more involved, and will we be the leader here in North Florida, of that autonomous movement?

Nat Ford: Well, that's what we're enjoying so much, the partnership and being, I guess, the tip of the spear, as it relates to introducing this technology. It is not easy, it's been tough. Every day I have to pump up Kiet and Greer, stay the course, don't worry about it, don't get distracted, stay the course, but the value to our community is so great. Mobility is the key to a greater community, and so what we're doing here at the JTA, we'll do the tough job, working with our partners. We're not alone, we didn't get here alone, that's why this room is filled, I think you all agree, what we are attempting to deploy here, is a game changer. This is the most transformative time in transportation since going from horse and buggy to the combustion engine and the automobile, and for us to be part of this transformation, it's a legacy that we all can be proud of, and help deal with education issues, healthcare issues, it's far beyond the technology. It's about improving the quality of people's lives, and we are gonna help them get to good healthcare, we're gonna help them get to that education opportunity, we're gonna help them get to that job that they desire, and that's our role and responsibility as professionals.

QuoteEmily Turner, Action News: You talk about the BUILD Grant, the money disappearing at the end of September of next year, your substantial completion date is just 90 days out from that, so far only about 8 percent of this project has been reimbursed from the federal grant thus far. How you make sure that local taxpayers at the end of this are not the ones left footing the bill?

Nat Ford: By completing the project on time in June of 2025, that is our strategy. We're working very hard at doing that and I feel very comfortable we're there in terms of the development of the project. With a lot of these projects, as most of you know in the room in terms of engineering, design work, there is this slow buildup, and in this particular case we had the FTA, I talked to the FTA Administrator this morning and we had the regional FTA administrator here this week, they understand the implications of what we're doing and the complexity of what we're doing. They have been involved in discussions, whether Buy America was required or we could get an extension or a waiver. They were involved when we talk about FMVSS and having a compliant vehicle that is roadworthy, and so some of the delays or decisions that were made were our own doing, and we were doing it in transparency with the governing bodies, be it FDOT or FTA, so I think we are in a good place to deliver the project by 2025.

Councilman Johnson: And part of those dollars, I wanna jump in a bit, yes there's some funds coming from-

Nat Ford: Feds, funds from Florida DOT, funds from JTA capital reserves, so it is a-

Councilman Johnson: But it's technology, technology takes time to develop.

Nat Ford: Exactly, I think this is not unusual for most projects and particularly when you're talking about a project that there is no template. There is no template, but the actual benefits are so far, so far, I think in the future, the benefits we see in the long term, I think that everyone is very understanding. Most people are very understanding of the complexity of what it is taking to develop this project.

QuoteMauricio La Plante, Jacksonville Business Journal: You mentioned just now there's no template, and you are citing the ridership that isn't there for light rail, so with this, I mean, how do you try and build ridership, especially if it's mainly in the Downtown core, which as you said, mainly only has an employee presence from 9 to 5 every day, so what are you doing to build ridership, is this just banking on 8 Jaguars home games during the season, or what are you going to do to build ridership within an area that is not densely populated every day?

Nat Ford: That's a very good question, and so one of the things we had to look at was the ridership projections as it related to getting the BUILD grant. The FTA is really, I mean, pretty restrictive as it relates to their investment, if they don't see potential ridership. The interesting thing that happened, when we did the skyway advisory committee, it was clear. Downtown Jacksonville, there was going to be an influx and growth of development in Downtown Jacksonville. So now when you look at the Bay Street Corridor, you have a Four Seasons that's under construction right now, the Sports and Entertainment complex around the stadium. Do you also have MOSH that's coming into this area, we have the Naval Museum that's coming into that area, and there was a discussion at that time about also a convention center, so there is infill development and plans for reinvigorating the waterfront on the Northbank that clearly we think-light rail might not be the proper solution for it but autonomous vehicles of the right size with the right frequency that we can adjust based on events or based on population is a much more efficient solution and flexible solution than putting in the permanency of rails and overhead catenary wire and buying, you know, very large light rail vehicles so we feel that this gives us the flexibility, depending on the future of growth patterns, travel patterns. It is really in some cases a technological adjustment in terms of the mapping of routes versus the fixed infrastructure that comes with some of the older, conventional types of transportation modes.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on June 03, 2024, 09:51:59 AM

QuoteCouncilman Johnson: Now I will tell you, I'm not gonna take it easy on you. I know we know each other but I'm gonna ask the tough questions because I did get my training in journalism and I am a journalist by trade so I will be asking those questions (Nat Ford: No worries.), so I want to ask: why autonomous? I mean there's so many other things. I know I've heard from my colleagues, I like, I'm an early adapter right? I like to see technology in the new things happening, there are those who were saying, light rail or commuter rail or even expansion of bus services is a way to go? Why autonomous and why now?

Nat Ford: You know, about having the right service for the problem, right? For the challenge and when we look at light rail for example, we're talking about in this case a 3 mile loop, let's just use that 3 mile loop with a control center, and that control center could be expanded to manage hundreds of vehicles so when we talk about the ReadiRide zones and things of that nature, this control center can maintain all of that and operate all of that, so that's a one-time kind of capital cost. In terms of the daily operations cost and initial capital investment, we're talking in this particular case for 3 miles, $66 million so the average is about $30 million per mile for service.

It's a scalable service, we can add vehicles, subtract vehicles, and one of our largest cost drivers at the JTA is the operator in the seat and so that limits us financially in terms of how much service we can provide based on our budget and our taxpayers and fares actually cover that budget. If we look to the future in being able to provide more transportation for our community, we have to look at that operational cost and that capital cost.

So I've heard, what about light rail? Let's do light rail! Well, some of my colleagues are here in the room, when you talk about a $30 million per mile cost versus a $1 billion mile cost, I think the math speaks for itself. Do we need in Jacksonville, over 870 square miles with a severe lack of density, and our community, light rail would not be the right solution from a per passenger cost, that system, folks would ride into downtown, commuting to work in the morning and they would commute home, and during the day and in the evening we are still paying for that service. It's not scalable. The tracks, the catenary wire that would have to be installed, billions of dollars that would be invested and you have that ongoing operation and maintenance cost.

I've been fortunate. I've built pretty much every surface transportation mode that's out there. I'd love to build rail in Jacksonville, but in this particular instance in Downtown Jacksonville and in your community, in the communities that are less dense, using a jackhammer to deal with a tack is overkill and I think it would be the wrong decision at this point. We are looking at rail, potentially regional rail, connecting the different cities within Northeast Florida, but a light rail solution, the ridership isn't there and I think it's disingenuous sometimes to throw that up as a substitute for this program because no one actually talks about the cost of that investment.

Councilman Johnson: And it's destructive, right? Our grandkids, I mean in our lifetimes, would we even see the realization of that?

Nat Ford: I think frankly what I'm seeing with this technology is the flexibility, the scalability, the adaptability, why? Because you don't have those fixed tracks and fixed stations so when we talk about downtown Jacksonville, we have the Bay Street Innovation Corridor and that 3 mile loop that 3 mile loop could be adjusted based on time of day, day of week, Jaguars game, Jumbo Shrimp baseball game, so we can adjust frequency, we can scale up and not have that operating cost that we actually deal with using the technology, and frankly it's preparing for the future. Vehicles will get larger, more capacity, things of that nature.

Quote from: Charles Hunter on June 03, 2024, 10:50:21 AM
The People Mover (original name of the Skyway) ridership projections in the 1970s and 80s were also based on "an influx of growth and development in Downtown Jacksonville."  Of course, we all know that growth did not happen. Quite the opposite.

Quote from: thelakelander on June 03, 2024, 11:06:23 AM

Quote from: Charles Hunter on June 03, 2024, 10:50:21 AM
The People Mover (original name of the Skyway) ridership projections in the 1970s and 80s were also based on "an influx of growth and development in Downtown Jacksonville."  Of course, we all know that growth did not happen. Quite the opposite.

Isn't the projected ridership only 250 people a day? This project isn't about serving a serious amount of transit users. Its about being the first to do something. Either they'll achieve that or it will be a disaster. Regardless of the innovation side, we still need something to better serve actual transit users in the city.

Quote from: Charles Hunter on June 03, 2024, 10:50:21 AM
The People Mover (original name of the Skyway) ridership projections in the 1970s and 80s were also based on "an influx of growth and development in Downtown Jacksonville."  Of course, we all know that growth did not happen. Quite the opposite.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on June 03, 2024, 12:15:44 PM
And, based on letters Marcus posted previously, I strongly believe the Fed payback on the Skyway is a red herring and could go away by simply pushing for it, if it is even a real issue monetarily at this point.

QuoteAs with any other FTA-funded project, grant recipients assume certain obligations when
applying for and accepting Federal funding. Specifically, FTA funding recipients agree to
maintain continuing control of the use of project property and constructed improvements to the
extent satisfactory to FTA. The recipient agrees to use project property for appropriate project
purposes for the duration of the useful life of that property, as described in FTA's Award
Management Requirements guidance (FTA C 5010.1E). Of particular relevance here, if a
recipient "fails to use its federally assisted property during the useful life of that property, the
recipient agrees that it may be required to return the entire amount of the federal assistance
expended on that property to FTA."

FTA understands that JTA and local stakeholders are currently in discussions regarding the
continued use of the Skyway. As stated above, while these choices are ultimately local
decisions, FTA wants to ensure the decision is made with all the facts and in full recognition of
JTA's past commitments. We look forward to our upcoming, regularly scheduled quarterly
meeting on April 27, 2021, when we can further discuss the contents of this letter.

Quote from: thelakelander on June 03, 2024, 10:58:18 AM

Quote from: marcuscnelson on June 03, 2024, 09:51:59 AM

QuoteCouncilman Johnson: Now I will tell you, I'm not gonna take it easy on you. I know we know each other but I'm gonna ask the tough questions because I did get my training in journalism and I am a journalist by trade so I will be asking those questions (Nat Ford: No worries.), so I want to ask: why autonomous? I mean there's so many other things. I know I've heard from my colleagues, I like, I'm an early adapter right? I like to see technology in the new things happening, there are those who were saying, light rail or commuter rail or even expansion of bus services is a way to go? Why autonomous and why now?

Nat Ford: You know, about having the right service for the problem, right? For the challenge and when we look at light rail for example, we're talking about in this case a 3 mile loop, let's just use that 3 mile loop with a control center, and that control center could be expanded to manage hundreds of vehicles so when we talk about the ReadiRide zones and things of that nature, this control center can maintain all of that and operate all of that, so that's a one-time kind of capital cost. In terms of the daily operations cost and initial capital investment, we're talking in this particular case for 3 miles, $66 million so the average is about $30 million per mile for service.

It's a scalable service, we can add vehicles, subtract vehicles, and one of our largest cost drivers at the JTA is the operator in the seat and so that limits us financially in terms of how much service we can provide based on our budget and our taxpayers and fares actually cover that budget. If we look to the future in being able to provide more transportation for our community, we have to look at that operational cost and that capital cost.

So I've heard, what about light rail? Let's do light rail! Well, some of my colleagues are here in the room, when you talk about a $30 million per mile cost versus a $1 billion mile cost, I think the math speaks for itself. Do we need in Jacksonville, over 870 square miles with a severe lack of density, and our community, light rail would not be the right solution from a per passenger cost, that system, folks would ride into downtown, commuting to work in the morning and they would commute home, and during the day and in the evening we are still paying for that service. It's not scalable. The tracks, the catenary wire that would have to be installed, billions of dollars that would be invested and you have that ongoing operation and maintenance cost.

I've been fortunate. I've built pretty much every surface transportation mode that's out there. I'd love to build rail in Jacksonville, but in this particular instance in Downtown Jacksonville and in your community, in the communities that are less dense, using a jackhammer to deal with a tack is overkill and I think it would be the wrong decision at this point. We are looking at rail, potentially regional rail, connecting the different cities within Northeast Florida, but a light rail solution, the ridership isn't there and I think it's disingenuous sometimes to throw that up as a substitute for this program because no one actually talks about the cost of that investment.

Councilman Johnson: And it's destructive, right? Our grandkids, I mean in our lifetimes, would we even see the realization of that?

Nat Ford: I think frankly what I'm seeing with this technology is the flexibility, the scalability, the adaptability, why? Because you don't have those fixed tracks and fixed stations so when we talk about downtown Jacksonville, we have the Bay Street Innovation Corridor and that 3 mile loop that 3 mile loop could be adjusted based on time of day, day of week, Jaguars game, Jumbo Shrimp baseball game, so we can adjust frequency, we can scale up and not have that operating cost that we actually deal with using the technology, and frankly it's preparing for the future. Vehicles will get larger, more capacity, things of that nature.

This is the type of stuff that drives a transportation planner like me bonkers. There's no such thing as a one-size-fits all transportation solution.....period. Over an 800-square-mile area....and a lot more when you consider the surrounding counties, you're going to need a lot of different modes working together to move people. Its also quite disingenuous to say LRT will be a billion per mile in Jax......and I'm not even in the group that thinks LRT will work here. Guess what else won't work.......AVs from Downtown to Argyle. So we're going to need everything from that 40-foot-bus to intercity rail, depending on the density of the neighborhood, potential ridership, existing infrastructure, land use and available corridors to adjacent counties. That's the flexibility and adaptability we need to be discussing locally. Not pitting different modes of transit against each other.

Quote from: marcuscnelson on June 03, 2024, 01:20:34 PM

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on June 03, 2024, 12:15:44 PM
And, based on letters Marcus posted previously, I strongly believe the Fed payback on the Skyway is a red herring and could go away by simply pushing for it, if it is even a real issue monetarily at this point.

Personally, that isn't really my takeaway from those letters. For context, the most recent letter (dated April 20, 2021) includes the following:

QuoteAs with any other FTA-funded project, grant recipients assume certain obligations when
applying for and accepting Federal funding. Specifically, FTA funding recipients agree to
maintain continuing control of the use of project property and constructed improvements to the
extent satisfactory to FTA. The recipient agrees to use project property for appropriate project
purposes for the duration of the useful life of that property, as described in FTA's Award
Management Requirements guidance (FTA C 5010.1E). Of particular relevance here, if a
recipient "fails to use its federally assisted property during the useful life of that property, the
recipient agrees that it may be required to return the entire amount of the federal assistance
expended on that property to FTA."

FTA understands that JTA and local stakeholders are currently in discussions regarding the
continued use of the Skyway. As stated above, while these choices are ultimately local
decisions, FTA wants to ensure the decision is made with all the facts and in full recognition of
JTA's past commitments. We look forward to our upcoming, regularly scheduled quarterly
meeting on April 27, 2021, when we can further discuss the contents of this letter.

This language does suggest to me that JTA are in fact under the constraints that have been expressed regarding the Skyway's infrastructure. I am curious how the (presumably locally funded) "conversion" of the Skyway would impact that, but I suspect that because in theory it would retain an elevated guideway (even if not the exact same guideway) for "transit" operation purposes they may consider that sufficient.

At the end of the day, the FTA is not the one at greatest risk from the U2C program, after all they've only reimbursed 8% of the Bay Street project so far and they're only out a grand total of about $14.2 million in the end. It is JTA, and ultimately local taxpayers who are holding the bag, between the local funding and required payback for the Skyway if that became an issue. The FTA regularly handles (and dismisses) projects that are genuinely worth billions of dollars, and their job isn't to save Jacksonville from what its leaders insist they want and are willing to pay most of the cost of. Nat Ford may get paid like a big shot and have the swagger for it but he's small fry for this industry.

Quote
Facilities. Determining the useful life of a facility must take into
consideration such factors as the type of construction, nature of the equipment
used, historical usage patterns, and technological developments. Based on
any of the methods identified above in Chapter IV, Paragraph 4.f(1), a
railroad or highway structure has a minimum useful life of 50 years, and most
other buildings and facilities (concrete, steel, and frame construction) have a
useful life of 40 years.

QuoteAlphabet to invest $5 billion in self-driving car unit Waymo

....Alphabet's "Other Bets" unit, which includes Waymo, delivered $365 million in quarterly revenue, up from $285 million a year ago. But the unit's losses widened to $1.13 billion from $813 million in the year-earlier period.

CEO Sundar Pichai said on the earnings call that Waymo provides 50,000 weekly paid trips, primarily in San Francisco and Phoenix. It has completed 2 million trips to date. In June, Waymo removed the waitlist and opened Waymo rides to all San Francisco users.

The unit raised $2.25 billion in its first external funding round in 2020. The company raised another $2.5 billion in 2021 in a round that included funding from Andreessen Horowitz, AutoNation, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Fidelity Management & Research Company and more.

Alphabet's increased investment in Waymo comes after General Motors' autonomous vehicle unit Cruise said it would indefinitely delay the production of the Origin, a self-driving shuttle designed for use in cities. Tesla on Tuesday delayed plans to unveil its CyberCab, a dedicated robotaxi, from August to Oct. 10.[/b]

"Alphabet has committed up to $5B to Waymo," Waymo CEO Tekedra Mawakana said on X. "We are grateful for their immense vote of confidence in our team and recognizing the amazing progress we've made with our technology, product, and commercialization efforts."

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/23/alphabet-to-invest-5-billion-in-self-driving-car-unit-waymo.html

Quote from: Captain Zissou on July 24, 2024, 09:52:37 AM
I sat down with 2 members of city council to try and understand why this is still moving forward despite no evidence that it will deliver on any of what JTA is promising.  One said that autonomous vehicles are the future for personal transport, so that's likely the case with public transport.  They won't live to see the full system built out but they trust that it will be a benefit to the city.  The other said that Nat Ford said we don't have a choice due to the money received from FDOT for the skyway.  I said I thought that was only $20M, but they said that essentially the faucet of federal money will be turned off because we failed to utilize previous funds.  Nat Ford is saying this is our only hope to receive future federal funds.

Quote from: jaxlongtimer on July 24, 2024, 07:45:54 PM
Three points here to add: 

First, if you read the Fed letters Marcus posted before, it is not at all clear that the Feds would want/demand payback, it is merely a possibility.  I have said before they could very likely waive a payback if politicos applied pressure.  This should be bipartisan.

Second, the annual and ongoing cost to maintain the Skyway and/or further invest in it to keep it going far exceeds any penalty.  Any business thinking person would cut their losses and swallow the short term bitter pill for the longer term.  It is a no brainer here.

Third, Fed transit officials in the Biden administration are goo-goo eyed over Deegan's victory here and have made it clear they are willing to throw transportation dollars our way if asked, Skyway/U2C be damned. 

No one should be letting JTA off the hook on either the Skyway or U2C.  This is why Jax is so far behind others... the emperor is naked and no one has the guts and/or know how to call him/her out.  We are soon to be the laughingstock of the mass transit industry for another few decades at this rate.